Wednesday, December 1, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings

We're getting super close to the fantasy playoffs, and here I am ranking guys like Alexander Mattison in my top-5 RBs and Jamaal Williams in the top-20 in that same game.  Whether you stashed guys like this or spent all of your waiver budget/priority on them yesterday, one or both players very well could be worth it even if just for the next couple of weeks.  

You probably went through this mental exercise weeks ago, but I'll reiterate that it's well past the time for thinking about where you drafted a guy back in August.  There was a guy in my longest running home league who drafted Cordarrelle Patterson in the late rounds, and we all gave him so much crap for it.  I think he even dropped him before the Week 1 games even started, and look where we are now.  Patterson is one of those league-winning type of players and was undrafted in most leagues.  

Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry aren't walking through that door and winning any fantasy championships this year.  It's guys like Leonard Fournette and maybe even Taysom Hill.  Who knows?  We'll find out tomorrow night if Taysom could be a QB1 down the stretch...or not.

As always, if you have start/sit or other questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let's talk about it.

Let's do the rankings!







Tuesday, November 23, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings

With it being the week of Thanksgiving, I thought I'd get ahead of things and post my initial rankings a day early.  I know a lot of folks post their rankings on Tuesdays, but most weeks that just isn't in the cards for me.  Also there's so much player news that comes out on Wednesdays that I feel like posting rankings on Tuesdays is a bit early.  But whatever.  They're here early this week, so enjoy it because I'll likely be back to my regular Wednesday posts again next week.  Let's get right to it, shall we?



Wednesday, November 17, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings

Depending on your league settings, you likely have around 4 more weeks to get into the fantasy playoffs (or not).  Most leagues also have trade deadlines quickly approaching, so we're getting into critical decision time for fantasy managers.

If you're in a keeper or dynasty league, are you a buyer or a seller?  Can you continue to hold out hope for guys like Chris Carson or Julio Jones?  Do you want to trade for AJ Dillon to get a potential RB1 for the next couple of weeks and help your team get into the playoffs?  Should you sell high on Patrick Mahomes?  Should you buy high on him?!?

Bottom line is this: it's now or never if you want to swing a trade.  If you don't make a deal, your current squad plus the waiver wire is what you have for the rest of the season.  Fantasy football should be fun, so if you want to try to trade for Lamar or Saquon or Deebo or whoever, do it!

If you have trade questions, start/sit, or anything else...as always, hit me up on Twitter and let's talk about it.

To the rankings!




Wednesday, November 10, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings

I'm still in the top-10 for the season after another solid week in the FantasyPros rankings competition, but this week is going to be challenging for me.  I'm going out of town tomorrow and I'll be driving back Sunday, so I might be updating my rankings before the 1:00 kickoffs from a Sheetz parking lot...but I'll be doing it!  My initial rankings below are posted here on Wednesday night, and I'll be updating them regularly as best I can.  But I'll be on a mini-vacation this weekend with family, so it might be a little less than usual.

If you have any specific questions, just hit me up on Twitter.  Let's do the rankings!



Wednesday, November 3, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings

Today was a wild ride with the NFL news. We had Aaron Rodgers testing positive for COVID-19, followed by several others including Saquon and A.J. Green.  Then there was the OBJ saga, which honestly you shouldn't care much about unless you're a Browns fan.  It's a low pass volume offense, and to be honest he hasn't been relevant since before we even knew what COVID-19 even was.  

It was pretty cool for me when I checked Twitter this afternoon and saw I was the #3 ranker for Week 8 and I'm now in the top-10 for the season!  That usually comes with a few new followers on Twitter, so welcome to you all.  I usually try to keep things pretty short here and adjust my rankings constantly throughout the week leading up to 1:00pm on Sundays. 

If you have any questions or just want to bounce something off me, let's keep the conversation going over on Twitter.  Let's get right to the rankings!



Wednesday, October 27, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

For most leagues, you're about halfway to the fantasy playoffs (unless your team is 0-7...in which case you're trending toward the opposite of that).  This midway point of the fantasy season can be a great time to make a trade, as you never know how someone may value guys like Miles Sanders or Allen Robinson.  Personally I think you'd be justified in sending either guy to the waiver wire, but you might as well throw a trade offer out there before you do, right?  

If you've been starting Lamar Jackson (who is on a bye this week) and your waiver wire happens to be thin at the QB position, offer Allen Robinson for Matt Ryan.  Yes, it's gross.  But would you rather start someone like Mac Jones this week?  I wouldn't. 

My point is it's time to try to forget that you spent a second round pick on a guy.  You can move on if you want.  Now is the time.  If not now, when?!?  Week 9?...Week 10?  In the case of Allen Robinson, he's on a bye in Week 10.  Just trade or drop him now.  Pull the band aid and thank me later.

If you have specific add/drop/trade questions, hit me up on Twitter.  Let's do the rankings!





Wednesday, October 20, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

Unless you have a roster with both Alvin Kamara and Calvin Ridley on it, the byes in Week 6 probably didn't hit your fantasy team too hard.  But Week 7 is a rough one, and for most it'll be the worst bye week of the season.  It's kind of like Black Friday.  It's earlier and earlier each year.  Oh, and it's terrible.

In case you're just realizing it, here are the teams not playing this week: Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers, Jags.  Yeah, that's a lot of good fantasy players on those teams.  Yes, even the Jags!  Don't disrespect James Robinson like that.

Hopefully you planned ahead and grabbed a backup QB or WR or whatever you need on your waiver wire.  If not, I hope you have depth or can use these rankings to find a guy now!

As always, hit me up with any questions on Twitter, and good luck to everyone in Week 7!



Wednesday, October 13, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings

This is always a crazy time for me.  In a three week period at the end of September through mid October I have my wife's birthday, my daughter's birthday, and my wedding anniversary.  And this year (next weekend) I'll be going out of town for a twice-delayed-due-to-Covid annual guy's trip.  

But the rankings don't stop...

Even with a busy week with work and life, I still managed to be the #13 ranker in Week 5.  This week's Sunday updates are going to be a challenge because I have all kinds of family coming around 2pm for my daughter's birthday party.  I just hope I can have a focused hour around noon to get all of my final updates done because I feel like those last minute tweaks are helping me with this accuracy competition.

So if you have questions before Sunday, it would be much preferred to get those to me ahead of time the next couple of days on Twitter.  I have been doing my best to answer any and all last-minute questions you all have, but just know it's a bit frantic right before 1:00 kickoffs on Sunday while I'm trying to make my rankings updates and oh by the way make sure my own fantasy lineups are set.

Thanks for reading, and let's do the rankings!




Wednesday, October 6, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings

Now that we have a 17 game season, we're no longer a quarter of the way through it after 4 weeks.  I can't tell you how much I dislike that lack of symmetry.  In any event, we now have a fairly decent sample size to work with, and I do like that.  Predicting who will perform and who won't from week to week should be a piece of cake now, right?  Ha!

I'm going to keep it brief this week and get right to the rankings.  As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with your trade questions, start/sit decisions, etc.  I'd rather keep the conversation going there rather than put a bunch of content here. 

Let's get to it!



Wednesday, September 29, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings

Last week, I mentioned how hard it can be not to overreact to Week 1, and it can be prove equally difficult to determine what is and is not a trend after Week 2.  Well, I must have guessed right on a few of those because I ended up as the #2 most accurate expert on FantasyPros in Week 3!

I'm glad to see a few more followers on Twitter (welcome!), and feel free to ask me questions there.  I enjoy having a discussion about trades, waiver wire adds, and of course start/sit decisions.  But to me, that's exactly what it is: a discussion.  A lot of people like to confirm their own opinions with a fantasy analyst or a friend, but sometimes you'll gain a perspective that you might not have been considering. 

One thing I added last week to each position ranking was tiers.  While I'm not sure how helpful they are for the reader, it's possible they helped me with my accuracy.  I guess we'll find out here in Week 4, won't we?  If you're new to my rankings, just know that I will update them regularly (at least daily from now until Sunday around noon).  So check the timestamp in the window below to make sure they're up to date.
 
Let's get to em!




Wednesday, September 22, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings

It's hard not to overreact to Week 1, but I hope you did your best in Week 2.  And it might be even harder to look at two weeks of data and try to determine what is and is not a trend.  While James Robinson played a ton of snaps, he continued to mostly trend down.  Week 3 is going to tell a lot about Robinson.  In what should be an up-tempo game, I'd expect him to end up with double digit fantasy points.  If he lays an egg, it might be time to panic and probably time to bench him.

Deebo Samuel continued to trend up last week.  So did Derek Carr and plenty of others.  I can't wait to find out how many of these trends will continue here into Week 3, and I hope I have a good feel for moving guys up and down.  This is the dance we do with the rankings, and it's especially volatile at the beginning of the season.  By Week 4, things will come a bit more into focus.

One new thing I'm trying out this week is adding TIERS to each position ranking.  I'm not sure how helpful they will be for start/sit decisions, but it'll give you an idea of how I think of guys in certain buckets.  For instance, if you're deciding between starting DeVonta Smith or Diontae Johnson, they're super close in my rankings but I have Smith in a tier above Johnson.  So while it's basically a toss up, since I have them in different tiers, it's a slightly easier call than DeVonta Smith versus Brandin Cooks for instance (since they're in the same tier).  

I hope the tiers make sense for in season rankings.  They do to me.  I'll obviously be updating these throughout the week/weekend, so check back often as news rolls in.  Let's get to them, shall we?



Wednesday, September 15, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 2 Rankings

The first week of the NFL season can be tough to predict, and you don't want to overreact too much here in Week 2.  For instance, I'm not really lowering Aaron Rodgers or any other Packers, especially since they're facing the Lions on Monday Night Football.  I am moving guys down like James Robinson and Julio Jones...and Jameis and Deebo Samuel up.  We'll find out in just a few days if any of those are overreactions or not.

As always feel free to let me know what you think on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks below my rankings.  I'll keep both up to date throughout the week/weekend.

Let's get to it!



Tuesday, September 14, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Rest of Season Rankings

While it feels a little silly posting Rest of Season rankings after just one week of games, here I am doing it anyway.  Last year I finished as the #2 ROS ranker on FantasyPros just behind Dan Harris, so there's no time to wait if I want to get a jump start at trying for the #1 spot.  Sure, fewer people do the ROS rankings competition (maybe 30ish), but finishing second in anything other than pistols at dawn isn't too shabby.

I will update these rankings fairly frequently (like when big injuries happen), but I'll at least update them every Monday/Tuesday all season long.  Hopefully this list will help you when considering trade offers, but it can also be helpful to see the big picture on a player rather than kneejerk reactions that can occur on a weekly basis.  If you have any questions about these ROS rankings, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @bartonwheeler!




Wednesday, September 8, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings

Is it just me or has it been a long summer?  COVID isn't over...and neither is baseball.  But we finally made it to the 2021 NFL season!

It feels good to get my initial Week 1 rankings done, and I'll be adjusting them as practice notes start trickling in.  So check back often.  Seriously, I could use the clicks!

Feel free to let me know what you think on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks below my rankings.  Sports betting was illegal in my state of Virginia last year, but not anymore!  So now I'll be using my own advice on some of these picks.  I'll be adjusting those regularly as well, likely all the way up to kickoff times. 

Below my betting picks will be my real football predictions in case you care to see those...

You may notice I'm relatively low on rookies in Week 1 because I want to see it first before I rank most of them higher.  If you want to start Najee Harris or a guy like Trey Sermon against the Lions, go for it.  But I think Sermon is likely a FLEX at best.  As for someone like Michael Carter, the Jets didn't even list him on their official depth chart.  So tread lightly with guys like him in Week 1.  If guys go off in their first NFL game, I'll adjust accordingly.  But for now, most are relatively low.
OK.  Let's get to the rankings!



 
>


So here are my real football predictions for the 2021 season.  I've been way off with my Super Bowl winners the last two years.  I picked the Rams to win it all in 2019, but I did have the Chiefs at least making it to the Super Bowl.  Then last year I picked the Saints over the Chiefs, so I am consistently getting the Chiefs right to make it to the Super Bowl.  This year I think I'll actually pick them to win it.  Let's take a look at the rest of my picks, shall we?


AFC East: Buffalo Bills
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
AFC South: Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
AFC Wild Card1: Los Angeles Chargers
AFC Wild Card2: Cleveland Browns
AFC Wild Card3: New England Patriots
[Chiefs over Ravens in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers 
NFC Wild Card1: Los Angeles Rams 
NFC Wild Card2: Seattle Seahawks
NFC Wild Card3: Minnesota Vikings
[Packers over Rams in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: Chiefs over Packers

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Fantasy Football 2021: Top 12 predictions for each position

I say this every year at the beginning of this article, and I'll say it again: 
These are NOT my rankings.  

My preseason/draft rankings have things like injury risk, coaching changes, RB committees, and a ton of other things built into them.  What I've put together below are my predictions for who could finish the season in the top-12 at each position in a best case scenario with fully healthy seasons (at least for these guys).  

The position lists below provide some insight into who I think has major upside, and in the case of the TE position maybe just a boring veteran who will end up in the top-12 because he'll play 17 games and just be solid.  When it comes to doing my own fantasy drafts, I still more or less stick to my rankings.  But these predictions are fun, and sometimes I highlight these guys on my big board and maybe take them a round or so earlier than his ADP.  Bold picks are sprinkled throughout.  Let's get to it!



QB 

Kyler Murray 
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Russell Wilson
Justin Fields
Tom Brady
Josh Allen 
Matthew Stafford
Dak Prescott  
Derek Carr
Aaron Rodgers
Kirk Cousins

I have Mahomes ahead of Murray in my preseason rankings, but I feel strongly that Kyler could easily be the #1 fantasy QB this year.  And when you look at the rest of my guys here, there's a lot of chalk except for a couple of boring guys at the end (Carr/Cousins) and Justin Fields.  As long as Chicago makes Fields the starter within the first couple of weeks, I really think he'll be a top-10 fantasy quarterback.  You could say the same for Trey Lance, but I get the feeling Jimmy G will have a longer leash.  I want to see Fields in the second half on Sunday night against the Rams and for him to never look back.


RB
Dalvin Cook 
Ezekiel Elliott 
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry 
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Gus Edwards
Jonathan Taylor
Nick Chubb
Austin Ekeler
AJ Dillon
Chris Carson
Sony Michel

So I have a lot of wild cards here.  Gus Edwards isn't that crazy as a top-12 fantasy RB after the Dobbins injury, but of course no one is drafting him as such...so it's a little crazy.  Sony Michel is definitely crazy on this list, but what if he fills that Cam Akers role and gets double digit touchdowns?  The same could be said for AJ Dillon, but I think he'd need Aaron Jones to miss some time in order to crack the top-12 RB list.  But anything is possible, and when you look at the top-12 RBs at the end of every season, you need to think a little outside of the box.


WR
Tyreek Hill
Calvin Ridley
Davante Adams 
A.J. Brown
Justin Jefferson
DeAndre Hopkins 
Stefon Diggs
Robert Woods
Jerry Jeudy
Chris Godwin
Will Fuller 
D.J. Moore

So a couple of guys who likely shouldn't be on this list: Jerry Jeudy and Will Fuller.  But with Bridgewater now the QB in Denver, Jeudy will start getting more accurate passes his way.  That might be all he needs to breakout in his second year in the league.  As for Fuller, he needs to say healthy for a full season and have Tua take the next step (or have Deshaun Watson come to South Beach).  Either way, it's obviously a long shot but a healthy Will Fuller could be a top-12 fantasy WR.



TE
Darren Waller
Travis Kelce 
Kyle Pitts
Mark Andrews
Austin Hooper
George Kittle
Tyler Higbee
Noah Fant
T.J. Hockenson
Jonnu Smith
Cole Kmet
Gerald Everett

Austin Hooper is seriously flying under the radar this year.  He's only in his second season with the Browns, and he missed time last year due to an appendectomy.  If he plays a full season, he could end up with 100 targets and easily be a top-10 fantasy TE (maybe even top-5!).  As for Cole Kmet, this is banking on Jimmy Graham falling off and maybe Justin Fields using him as a safety net.  The talent is there, I just think he needs some more opportunity in this offense.


With the season kicking off Thursday, that's probably a wrap for the preseason articles.  I'll keep updating my draft rankings up until close to kickoff of the Bucs/Cowboys game, and I'll post my Week 1 rankings tomorrow!

Thursday, September 2, 2021

Who is this year's Zac Stacy? (2021 Edition)

This is by far my favorite preseason article to write.  Based on the title, you can probably tell I've been writing it for a while now.  If you're new to it, it's basically just a Q&A format that includes some of my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc.  

You may or may not remember Zac Stacy.  He was barely a flash in the pan.  For me, it just feels right to name this preseason piece after him because that's when I started writing it.  Who was last year's Zac Stacy?  Clearly it was James Robinson.  Does that mean Robinson will do nothing this year?  Before the Etienne injury, I thought that was possible.  Now, not so much.  I think he'll be fine.

This article points out several trends I've noticed during the years I've been writing about fantasy football, and I've hand picked a guy to fit each category for the 2021 season.  There's not always a player who fits each category, but as you'll see, it happens more often than not.  We'll see if I can get one or two of these right again this year.  Let's go!




Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Phillip Lindsay (2018), Devin Singletary (2019), or James Robinson (2020)?
[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues.  He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]

A: Kenneth Gainwell
Obviously someone like Najee Harris doesn't fit into this category.  The same can be said for Javonte Williams, Tre Sermon and Michael Carter.  These rookies are being drafted in nearly every league, so we have to dig deeper for this year's Zac Stacy.  With a new coaching staff in Philly, I think it's possible Miles Sanders isn't THE guy in this backfield.  It might take an injury to Sanders, but it might not.  If Gainwell gets the opportunity, maybe he just takes over as the top RB for the Eagles.

Honorable Mention: Jaret Patterson


Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), Raheem Mostert (2019), or Nyheim Hines/J.D. McKissic (2020)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

A: Kenyan Drake
To be fair, Hines and McKissic both finished just outside the top-20 in half PPR and inside the top-20 in full PPR last year.  But I listed them both for this category even though neither quite finished in the top-20 for half PPR.  Anyway, I was going to write about Gus Edwards here, but I can't do that now with the Dobbins injury.  Instead I'll focus on Kenyan Drake, who is being drafted outside of the top-40 RBs but could certainly finish in the top-20 if Josh Jacobs gets injured or falters in any way.  Or maybe this is just more of a timeshare and Drake is heavily involved in the passing game.  Either way, he might just end up finding his way into the top-20, and I don't think anyone expects him to do so.

Honorable Mention: James Conner


Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), A.J. Brown (2019), or Tee Higgins (2020)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-25 fantasy WR.]

A: Rondale Moore
This happens almost every year, but it's always hard to predict with so many promising rookie WRs.  Last year I actually got this one right with Tee Higgins.  This year, I'm going with Rondale Moore.  I think he could be a big time playmaker in this offense, and I'm going to assume A.J. Green will be dealing with a season-ending injury by Week 3.  Moore could end up being the #2 WR in this high powered offense.

Honorable Mention: Terrace Marshall, Jr.





Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), Lamar Jackson (2019), or Kyler Murray/Josh Allen (2020)?
[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]

A: Tua Tagovailoa
I nailed this one in 2019 with Lamar, and then I crashed and burned by saying Daniel Jones could take a leap in 2020.  This year I'm trying a second year leap again with Tua.  The Dolphins got him some more weapons with Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, and Tua is another year healthier/removed from that serious hip injury.  You can draft him outside of the top-20 QBs right now, and I don't see why he couldn't take that next step and be in the QB1 conversation this year.  For comparison, his draft class mate Joe Burrow is already being drafted near the QB1 territory.  He's my honorable mention here because he could also be in that mix.  But I like Tua's lower round value way better.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow


Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), Alex Collins (2017), or Tarik Cohen (2018)?
[Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2021.]

A: Zack Moss
This trend was happening every year until Rashaad Penny got hurt and couldn't do it in 2019 and then Darrell Henderson was overtaken by Cam Akers last year.  Let's see if this gets back on track for 2021.  And if not, I'll just remove this from the article moving forward.  If the trend is over, let's ditch it.  But this year I really think Zack Moss could end up leading a timeshare and finish as a top-20 fantasy RB. As long as Moss gets a bunch of goal line work and Josh Allen doesn't have like 8 rushing touchdowns, I feel confident in Moss over Singletary in Buffalo.

Honorable Mention: AJ Dillon




Q: Who is this year's Julius Thomas (2013), Antonio Gates (2014), Gary Barnidge (2015), Kyle Rudolph (2016), Evan Engram (2017), Eric Ebron and Jared Cook (2018), Darren Waller (2019), or Robert Tonyan (2020)?
[Description: A tight end who is virtually undrafted in fantasy leagues and ends up being a top-5 TE.]

A: Austin Hooper
I really feel like Austin Hooper could have a 2015 Gary Barnidge kind of season.  Hooper had some good years in Atlanta, but he struggled a bit in his first year as a Brown.  If he can get a full season in without injury, I think he'll end up with 100 targets and could push for a top-5 TE spot.

Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett


I'll post at least one more article before Week 1 of the regular season, and until then, good luck in your drafts!

Wednesday, August 18, 2021

Someone to draft on all 32 teams: 2021 edition

We're now two episodes into Hard Knocks, which means it's officially really long fantasy football article season.  In this piece, I take a look at every team's depth chart to find that "value" guy you can actually draft from each squad.  

For some people, you may just want to find your favorite team and see who you might be able to get there.  I mean, fantasy football above all else is supposed to be fun, right?  Let's say you're a Chiefs fan, and you're super tempted to draft Mahomes in the first round.  And if that's what you want to do, go for it.  But maybe you understand the value of drafting a QB later than that.  Maybe you're in a league with a bunch of other KC fans and you're never able to draft him unless you have a top pick or have to spend a ton in an auction.  


Whatever the case may be, I've highlighted a guy on every NFL team I like based on his current ADP (Average Draft Position - using FantasyPros as my reference for half PPR leagues).  I'm excluding defenses and kickers for this exercise, as those positions are typically saved for the last two rounds of drafts regardless.  I'm also not going to list every single player for every team.  This article is already long enough.  I'm trying to keep it somewhat focused.

Also keep in mind, I wouldn't draft all of these guys way higher than their ADP, and it certainly doesn't mean I'd draft Mecole Hardman over Patrick Mahomes!  It just means I like Hardman at his value (currently the 12th round).  And if you want a piece of that Chiefs offense, he's a cheap option.  But for every guy I've mentioned below, I'm considering them at or even a little before the round they're going in.  I've put the ADP in parentheses (as of a day or so ago - it'll change over the next few weeks) and put each guy I like in bold/italics. Let's get to it!


AFC East

Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs (14)
Josh Allen (33)
Zack Moss (94)
Devin Singletary (111)
Cole Beasley (141)
Gabriel Davis/Emmanuel Sanders (200ish)

Zack Moss improved as his rookie season went on, but he went down with an ankle injury at the end of Buffalo's opening playoff game against the Colts.  The Bills then struggled to run the ball against the Ravens and Chiefs, and it was actually TJ Yeldon carrying the rock in the second half of the AFC Championship game.  I don't think this coaching staff trusts Singletary much, and I like Moss to get the bulk of the RB timeshare in Buffalo.  I'm hoping after signing a huge contract that Josh Allen takes it easy with the goal line runs, and Moss could be a nice middle round value if that's the case.

Miami Dolphins
Myles Gaskin (44)
Will Fuller V (103)
Mike Gesicki (112)
Jaylen Waddle (119)
Devante Parker (137)
Tua Tagovailoa (159)
Salvon Ahmed (237)

There wasn't much to like about Miami's offense for fantasy purposes last year, but that means there's some value here in 2021.  And if there's anyone who could be this year's Stefon Diggs, it just might be Will Fuller.  He didn't sign a huge contract, but he should have something to prove on such a short term deal.  He's missing the first game of the season due to the carryover PED suspension from last year, but that will only suppress his ADP even more.  Health is of course the main concern with Fuller, but if Tua can take that next step, Fuller could be a top-10 fantasy WR if he plays 15 or 16 games.

New England Patriots
Damien Harris (75)
Hunter Henry (146)
Jonnu Smith (158)
James White (163)
Cam Newton (206)
Nelson Agholor (209)
Sony Michel (218)
Mac Jones (295)
Jakobi Myers (313)

Damien Harris is the only guy I can see myself realistically drafting on this team, and his ADP is pretty fair.  However, if Mac Jones were to be named the Week 1 starter, I'd draft Harris even earlier than this.  In that scenario, Harris would no longer have the threat of Cam stealing goal line carries, so he feels like a value behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  If you'd rather have a dart throw for the Patriots at the end of your draft, for what it's worth I think Jakobi Myers is the best receiver on this team.  And if Reception Perception likes a receiver with an ADP over 300, he's worth a super late round pick in my book.

New York Jets
Michael Carter (78)
Corey Davis (129)
Elijah Moore (149)
Tevin Coleman (172)
Jamison Crowder (177)
Zach Wilson (195)

This value might be gone as Week 1 approaches because this rookie is seriously flashing in training camp.  But as long as his ADP stays in the 150 range, I like Elijah Moore's chances of being the #1 or 2 weapon in this offense.  Will that offense be explosive with a rookie QB?  Time will tell.  But you have to think the Jets will be trailing in a lot of games, so Michael Carter's ADP is a bit rich for me.  If I had to choose one of these rookies, I'd go with Moore.


AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

J.K. Dobbins (25)
Lamar Jackson (45)
Mark Andrews (53)
Gus Edwards (110)
Marquise Brown (124)
Rashod Bateman (162)
Sammy Watkins (219)

I talked up Lamar Jackson a ton in 2019, but there wasn't much value for him last year going in Round 2 of most fantasy drafts.  This year he actually could be back to having some value if he slips into the 5th round.  He was great down the stretch in 2020 and was the QB1 the last month of the season.  I'm not usually into paying up for a QB, so I doubt I'll get Lamar in many leagues.  But his rushing provides a floor that you'll be happy with if your first 4 picks are really solid RBs/WRs.

Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon (21)
Ja'Marr Chase (70)
Tee Higgins (73)
Tyler Boyd (97)
Joe Burrow (102)

Joe Mixon was a consensus 1st round pick last year, so you could consider him a value in Rd 2 this year.  But as someone who rostered him in 2020, I have a hard time going back to that well.  Tyler Boyd is also going 20 spots later than he was last year, which does make sense with the addition of Ja'Marr Chase.  But if I'm drafting one of these WRs, give me the cheapest (and most proven!) option in Boyd.  

Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb (6)
Kareem Hunt (47)
Odell Beckham, Jr. (68)
Jarvis Landry (104)
Baker Mayfield (134)
Austin Hooper (276)

I know this is a boring pick, but Hooper was a top-100 preseason pick last year.  He had a slow start and proceeded to miss a couple of games due to an appendectomy.  Yet he still managed 70 targets and 4 TDs in 13 games (his first season as a Brown).  If he plays 17 games this year, he'll likely get around 100 targets.  I could easily see him with 750 yards and 5 touchdowns, which would mean he'd likely be a top-12 fantasy tight end.



Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris (15)
Diontae Johnson (58)
Chase Claypool (72)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (80)
Ben Roethlisberger (150) 
Eric Ebron (212)
Anthony McFarland, Jr. (220)

JuJu was a consensus third round pick last year, and now his ADP is in the 80s.  I know people are excited about the younger guys, but JuJu is going to try to secure a bag this year.  He signed a one-year deal to play in Pittsburgh this season, with $1 million in base salary and a $7 million signing bonus.  Like Will Fuller, I feel like the motivation is there on such a short term deal.  While JuJu is still pretty young, wide receivers tend to fall off a cliff around age 30.  These guys know this could be their last chance at a big, long-term contract.


AFC South

Houston Texans

David Johnson (82)
Brandin Cooks (105)
Phillip Lindsay (148)
Deshaun Watson (164)
Mark Ingram II (182)
Tyrod Taylor (339)

Sure, Watson might not play a snap this season.  But that was the case for Le'Veon Bell a few years ago and people were still taking him in the first couple of rounds!  And then Bell (voluntarily) sat out the entire season.  At an ADP of 164, the risk is so low, why wouldn't you take Watson here?  I mean, if morally you have an issue, fine.  I get that.  But otherwise, I'd probably draft him 20-30 spots higher than this as long as it seems like there's a 20ish percent chance he plays this year.  I mean, who else are you going to draft from the Texans...?

Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor (8)
Michael Pittman, Jr. (123)
Nyheim Hines (125)
T.Y. Hilton (153)
Marlon Mack (156)
Carson Wentz (267)
Parris Campbell (278)
Jacob Eason (380)

T.Y. Hilton's ADP last year was 63, so he's a value to me now that he's going SO much later.  Of course I'd like this spot a lot more if he had Wentz throwing the ball in Week 1, but we really don't know when Wentz will be back.  If Wentz doesn't start the year on the PUP list, maybe it'll be sooner than later.  Either way, Hilton is a solid WR and a decent value in the mid to late rounds.

Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson (50)
Travis Etienne (61)
D.J. Chark (86)
Laviska Shenault, Jr. (117)
Trevor Lawrence (128)
Marvin Jones, Jr. (142)

Few college QBs get hyped up as much as Trevor Lawrence.  The only other guy I can even think of is Andrew Luck.  Recent top picks like Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray weren't hyped up nearly as much as Lawrence (nor for as long).  People have been saying Trevor Lawrence is a "generational talent" for quite some time.  Now in his rookie season with Urban Meyer as the new head coach and weapons all around him, you can get him in the double-digit rounds?!?  To me, that's great value. 

Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry (3)
A.J. Brown (24)
Julio Jones (41)
Ryan Tannehill (92)
Anthony Firkser (203)
Darrynton Evans (241)

This is honestly one of my favorite values of 2021, especially since Evans is basically undrafted in most leagues.  With the NFL adding a game to the season, workload management could be more of a thing across the board.  As for Tennessee, they have a new OC, and Derrick Henry's workload has been insanely high the last couple of years.  Of course he will get the vast majority of touches in this backfield, but if the Titans manage his workload a bit more this year, Evans is a great value at the very end of drafts. 




AFC West

Denver Broncos

Javonte Williams (66)
Melvin Gordon (76)
Noah Fant (79)
Courtland Sutton (85)
Jerry Jeudy (89)
Teddy Bridgewater (303)
Drew Lock (366)

I personally have Jerry Jeudy ranked well ahead of Courtland Sutton, so I think he's the value in Denver.  Jeudy is younger and has more upside at this point in his career, and I really don't think anyone is going to be the best WR on this squad other than him.  This feels like a hill I'm going to die on in 2021. Draft Jerry Jeudy!!!

Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce (11)
Tyreek Hill (12)
Patrick Mahomes (18)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (22)
Mecole Hardman (140)
Darrel Williams (189)

I said the same thing last year in this spot, and I'll say it again.  It's hard to find value with a team like this because everyone wants a piece of Kansas City's offense.  And I wanted to say CEH is a value now that he's going toward the end of the second round, but I'd rather highlight Mecole Hardman because you can get him MUCH later.  Reports out of camp say Hardman is the clear #2 WR in this offense with Sammy Watkins now in Baltimore.  Of course he's still behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in the pecking order, but if this offense is scoring 30 points/game, there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around. 

Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller (26)
Josh Jacobs (30)
Kenyan Drake (101)
Henry Ruggs III (132)
Derek Carr (184)
John Brown (197)
Bryan Edwards (208)

I didn't really want any part of this offense in 2020, and I kind of feel that way again this year.  Sure, I'd probably draft Waller in the third round or so.  Maybe Josh Jacobs too.  But I'm not super excited about either guy, so I'll say the best value might be Bryan Edwards.  A couple of weeks ago, he was basically free in drafts with an ADP near 300.  Now it's closer to 200, but I still like him.  You'll know in the first couple of weeks just how involved he is (or isn't) in this offense, and he just might have the tools to be the #1 WR on this team.

Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler (13)
Keenan Allen (29)
Justin Herbert (59)
Mike Williams (121)
Jared Cook (174)
Justin Jackson/Joshua Kelley (250ish)

It's kind of crazy to me that the ADP of Mike Williams is actually worse than it was this time last year, and that was before the emergence of Justin Herbert and the departure of Hunter Henry.  If anything, Mike Williams should be nearing a top-100 player, right?!  I'm drinking the Mike Williams Kool-Aid this offseason and will gladly draft him in the middle rounds as my third or fourth wide receiver.  Justin Herbert looks like an emerging star, so getting Williams as a piece of this offense is a way better value than paying up for Keenan Allen.




NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott (5)
CeeDee Lamb (37)
Amari Cooper (42)
Dak Prescott (51)
Tony Pollard (116)
Michael Gallup (127)
Blake Jarwin (216)

Here's another team where it's hard to find value versus ADP because, well, there are a lot of Cowboy fans.  OK, so maybe some of it is the high powered offense.  And if you want a piece of it at a discount, take Michael Gallup.  Of course Lamb is the new hotness and Amari Cooper will get his.  But Gallup's ADP a year ago was 72 (before anyone knew what Lamb could do in the NFL).  That doesn't mean Gallup is done.  You're getting him at a nice discount, and reports from camp make it sound like his route tree is expanding.  All three of these WRs could have good value this year, but Gallup is by far the cheapest.

New York Giants
Saquon Barkley (7)
Kenny Golladay (63)
Evan Engram (170)
Sterling Shepard (202)
Devontae Booker (213)
Kadarius Toney (229)
Darius Slayton (251)
Daniel Jones (268)

This is a tough call with this team because there's actually a lot of value across the board.  Evan Engram's ADP a year ago was 77, and he led the team in targets.  I don't expect that to be the case again with a healthy Saquon and Golladay in town.  Yes, Kyle Rudolph is a Giant now too.  But I still think Engram will likely be a top-12 TE.  With an ADP now of 163, that's not a bad way to get a piece of this offense (you know, if you want it).

Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders (36)
Jalen Hurts (81)
Devonta Smith (87)
Dallas Goedert (88) 
Zach Ertz (147)
Kenneth Gainwell (194)
Jalen Reagor (234)

I'm not sure there's a ton of value in the top guys on this list, but Kenneth Gainwell feels like a pick where he's going in drafts.  Ask yourself this...how sure are you that Miles Sanders will get a big workload in this offense?  This time last year, Antonio Gibson was being drafted around this same range.  He's now being drafted in the second round.  This is the area in drafts where you take a shot, and maybe Gainwell can be another Memphis hybrid back to shine in the NFL.

Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson (16)
Terry McLaurin (32)
Logan Thomas (90)
Curtis Samuel (115)
J.D. McKissic (144)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (160)

I actually thought Fitzpatrick's ADP would be closer to 200, but I still like him as a late round QB this year.  I'm hoping he can keep the turnovers down and hold onto the starting gig all year.  If he does, I really think you're looking at a top-12 fantasy QB with these weapons.



NFC North

Chicago Bears

David Montgomery (28)
Allen Robinson (35)
Darnell Mooney (139)
Justin Fields (154)
Tarik Cohen (176)
Damien Williams (178)
Jimmy Graham/Cole Kmet (260ish)

Like a lot of people, I love Darnell Mooney in his second season in the league.  The guy had almost 100 targets last year as a rookie, and with Anthony Miller gone you have to think he gets at least 100 targets this year.  We could be looking at 1000 yards and 6 or 7 touchdowns in Year 2, so I wouldn't be surprised it he starts going inside the top-100 in fantasy drafts in the next couple of weeks.

Detroit Lions
D'Andre Swift (34)
T.J. Hockenson (55)
Jamaal Williams (120)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (200)
Jared Goff (214)
Breshad Perriman (264)
Tyrell Williams (293)

I don't think Swift or Hockenson are necessarily values at those ADPs, so I'm going way down to Perriman who I think has as good of a shot as anyone on this team to be the WR1.  What does that mean with Goff under center?  Well, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp certainly had some good fantasy seasons with him.  Things will certainly be different in Detroit, but if the target tree narrows to mostly Hockenson and Perriman, the latter could be a solid fantasy WR on volume alone.  This could age poorly, but I'm not buying the rookie St. Brown at an ADP around 200.

Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones (9)
Davante Adams (10)
Aaron Rodgers (62)
A.J. Dillon (95)
Robert Tonyan (107)
Randall Cobb (190)
Allen Lazard (231)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (308)

Last year I highlighted Lazard in this spot because his ADP was over 200.  Here we are a year later, and his ADP is still over 200.  He was looking really good last year before dealing with a core injury.  The addition of Randall Cobb should devalue him some, but not this much.  If he's 100% healthy now, I think Lazard with be the clear #2 WR in this offense.



Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook (2)
Justin Jefferson (23)
Adam Thielen (46)
Alexander Mattison (131)
Irv Smith, Jr. (138)
Kirk Cousins (143)

Minnesota's offense funnels through such few guys, there isn't a lot of value in anyone in this offense.  If I had to pick one, I guess Irv Smith, Jr. could break out with Kyle Rudolph gone.  And with an ADP in the later rounds, you're not risking much draft capital with this pick.


NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Calvin Ridley (19)
Kyle Pitts (48)
Mike Davis (56)
Matt Ryan (126)
Russell Gage (167)
Javian Hawkins (205)

Could Javian Hawkins be this year's James Robinson?  Maybe.  While Mike Davis proved last year in Carolina he could carry the load, Hawkins could be an injury away from being the next man up.  And even if Davis stays healthy, Hawkins has shown speed early on in training camp that could give the UDFA some touches on a regular basis.  It's basically a free pick this late in your draft, so if there's any buzz at all that Hawkins could be the #2 RB in Atlanta, this is a huge value.

Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey (1)
D.J. Moore (57)
Robby Anderson (83)
Chuba Hubbard (175)
Terrace Marshall, Jr. (228)
Sam Darnold (232)

I actually think there could be value with all of Carolina's WRs this year.  D.J. Moore's 2020 ADP was around 33, so he's going two full rounds later.  Robby Anderson led the team in targets last season and he's going nearly 30 picks after Moore this year.  Then there's the rookie Terrace Marshall, Jr. who is the big unknown here.  But with an ADP after 200, he's the Panther I'd most like to grab at the end of my draft and see if he can be this year's Justin Jefferson.



New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara (4)
Michael Thomas (69)
Latavius Murray (130)
Taysom Hill (166)
Adam Trautman (185)
Marquez Callaway (193) 
Tre'Quon Smith (199)
Jameis Winston (225)

If you have an IR spot in your league, Michael Thomas becomes a value at some point, but I'm not sure that's at an ADP in the 60s.  He'll be out for several weeks to start the season, so someone will need to catch a few passes.  Marquez Callaway has a great shot to emerge as the #1 receiver in this offense for at least the first half of the season.  To get that near pick 200 feels like a good value to me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans (38)
Chris Godwin (40)
Ronald Jones (71)
Tom Brady (74)
Leonard Fournette (77)
Antonio Brown (100)
Rob Gronkowski (106)
Giovani Bernard (180)
O.J. Howard (242)

After dealing with RBs who couldn't catch passes in 2020, I think Bernard was brought in to be Tampa's version of James White.  I'll be grabbing Gio toward the end of drafts this year because even with Jones and Fournette getting touches, I think Bernard will be the third down back (and maybe the two minute drill back as well).  He'll get plenty of work and will be a good FLEX option in a Bruce Arians offense that has been in the top-5 in each of his first two seasons in Tampa.


NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

DeAndre Hopkins (17)
Kyler Murray (39)
Chase Edmonds (64)
James Conner (98)
A.J. Green (187)
Rondale Moore (201)
Christian Kirk (215)

When Rondale Moore was drafted by the Cardinals, I literally couldn't think of a better landing spot.  I would've preferred if A.J. Green didn't move out to the desert, but do we really expect him to be healthy for more than a few games this year?  I think Moore could legit be the #2 receiver on this team by midseason and is well worth a late round flier.  By the time you do your draft, I'd expect Moore's ADP to be a lower number than A.J. Green's.

Los Angeles Rams
Robert Woods (43)
Cooper Kupp (49)
Darrell Henderson (52)
Matthew Stafford (91)
Tyler Higbee (109)
Xavier Jones (168)

Xavier Jones didn't get much playing time in his rookie season, but at least he was on the team and knows the offense.  Now with Cam Akers out for the year, Jones could be thrust into a big role alongside Darrell Henderson (who I don't expect to be a bellcow type of back). 

San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle (27)
Brandon Aiyuk (65)
Raheem Mostert (67)
Deebo Samuel (84)
Trey Sermon (93)
Trey Lance (173)
Jimmy Garoppolo (292)

I'd love to say either Lance or Jimmy G is a value here, but I just don't know what Kyle Shanahan is going to do.  While they might let Trey Lance sit on the sidelines for a bit, I don't think they'll do that with the other Trey.  The Niners traded up to get Sermon with the #88 pick in this year's draft, and running backs tend to get worked into the offense right away.  This feels like a good value for someone who could be the lead back in a good offense that likes to run the football.



Seattle Seahawks
D.K. Metcalf (20)
Chris Carson (31)
Tyler Lockett (54)
Russell Wilson (60)
Rashaad Penny (152)
Gerald Everett (198)

The top four on this list were pretty much all ranked in this same range last year (with the exception of Metcalf moving up a couple of WR tiers).  So while I can't say there's much value with the best players in Seattle, that's not to say I wouldn't draft them right at those ADPs.  But the TE position feels a bit up for grabs, so Gerald Everett could make some sense if you end up waiting until the end of your draft for the position.  Sure, Will Dissly is still there, but he has dealt with his fair share of injuries.  I like the fit for Everett, and he could even breakout if given more than 62 targets for the first time in his career.


Congrats if you actually made it through all 32 teams!  I'll get another preseason article or two out in the next couple of weeks, so stay tuned!