Wednesday, December 11, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings

Image result for josh jacobs washington"Unless you're a crazy person and play into Week 17, you're likely in the semifinals if you're reading this.  Or maybe you just like fantasy football a lot.  In either case, I feel you because I fit into both of those categories.  I'm not going to spend a lot of time talking (read: writing) this week, so let's get right to the rankings...which, let's be honest, is why you're here.

As always, hit me up in on Twitter if you have any specific questions that can't be answered below.






QBs
This is your weekly reminder that Ryan Tannehill will get you 20+ fantasy points in every game.  Unfortunately for me, I'm playing against him this week in my semifinals.  He was a top-10 QB last week, and I don't see why he won't be a top-10 QB against the Texans this week.  I was down on Kyler Murray and Tom Brady last week, and that proved to be right.  I'm staying down on Brady, but I'm bumping Murray up a few spots this week against the Browns.  I think that game has shootout potential, while I think the Bengals/Patriots game could end up something like 20-10.

RBs
Image result for saquon barkley"I was down on Saquon Barkley versus the ECR last week, and he continued to look average on Monday night against the Eagles.  He gets the Dolphins here in Week 15, so I'm ranking him as a top-10 RB.  If he doesn't end up there, I don't know what to tell you.  I can tell you this: I'm relying on him heavily for my fantasy team's success this week.  It's now or never, Saquon!  As for Josh Jacobs, I wish I knew what to tell you.  The reports are mixed, so hopefully if you own Jacobs, you were able to snag Washington off the waiver wire.  Right now I'm not rankings Jacobs and rankings Washington as a top-15 RB.  If Jacobs plays, it's tough to say how effective he'll be.

WRs
I faded Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins the last couple of weeks against Stephon Gilmore, and I had Tyreek Hill outside of my top-12 at the position in Week 14.  That proved to be right as well, and I don't see how you can even flex a guy like Tyler Boyd this week.  I mean, I'm ranking Breshad Perriman higher than him for God's sake!  For now, I'm ranking guys like Devante Parker, D.J. Chark, and Adam Thielen.  Check back later this week for updates as practice reports make these injuries a bit more clear.

TEs
I felt confident with Mike Gesicki in my top-12 last week against a Jet defense minus Jamal Adams.  I very generically said Gesicki would "catch a few balls and likely find the end zone".  Yeah, um...neither of those happened.  I guess I cursed him again, so look for him to bounce back this week against the Giants!

DEFs
It's too bad defense isn't included in the FantasyPros accuracy rankings because I've been doing well at that position...kickers too actually.  I had a rough week in the overall accuracy department, but I nearly cracked the top-10 in Week 13.  It's up and down sometimes.  As for my betting picks, I actually cracked the top-10 for the SEASON in those rankings.  I continue to do well with my over/under picks for whatever reason, so I guess focus on those if you're actually doing something with my picks.  :)

Let's see who I have here in Week 15, shall we?




Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings

If you're still reading my rankings, then you're probably in the fantasy playoffs.  Welcome!

If you're like me and have a first round bye, even better...and congratulations!
Image result for saquon barkley eli manning

But if you don't have a first round bye, then you're going to want to take a look at these rankings.  I'm going to get right to it, and please feel free to hit me up in on Twitter if you have any specific questions that can't be answered below.






QBs
I've been talking up Ryan Tannehill for a solid month now, and he continues to be a viable starter every single week.  Last week I told you that he might just get you to the promised land in fantasy, and I still believe it!  While he wasn't a QB1 in Week 13, he still had multiple touchdowns (which he's done in every start by the way).  Now he gets the Raiders this week and the Texans and Saints in Weeks 15 & 16.  He's not exciting, but I feel like he'll get you 20 fantasy points in every game, and he's in my top-10 this week.

RBs
I continue to be down on Saquon Barkley versus the ECR, and unfortunately for my fantasy team, I continue to be right about him.  I'm hoping he gets back on track on Monday night, but the Eagle defense is no easy task.  I have him much lower than the ECR and outside of my top-12.  If he proves me wrong this week (while my fantasy team has a bye), I'm going to feel great about him for Weeks 15 & 16 (Miami and Washington).

WRs
I faded Amari Cooper in Week 12 in New England and was right.  I then slightly faded DeAndre Hopkins last week against Stephon Gilmore and was mostly right except for that touchdown "pass" he got on that sweet trick play with Watson.  All of this to say that Tyreek Hill scares me this week.  He's a different receiver than those guys because he's fast as hell and can break a huge play at any time.  The problem is, the Patriots haven't allowed big plays and Gilmore specifically hasn't allowed a touchdown all year in coverage.  It's possible the Chiefs move Tyreek around and get him the ball outside of that shadow coverage, but this is another stud who is outside of my top-12 at the position.

TEs
Image result for mike gesickiI've talked up Mike Gesicki before and been wrong, but he's been getting targets so consistently lately, I feel confident with him in my top-12.  He faces a Jet defense that doesn't give up a ton of fantasy points to tight ends, but they'll be without Jamal Adams in this game.  Without the pro bowl safety, the back end of that defense should be wide open for Gesicki to catch a few balls and likely find the end zone.

DEFs
I kept it rolling with my fantasy defense rankings last week and finished as the #3 expert at the position.  It continues to be my strong suit, but I had a down week with my betting picks.  I played around with the moneylines a bit more last week, and that's actually what hurt my overall score.  I'm staying away from those lines and sticking with the ATS & Over/Under picks here in Week 14.  Let's see who I like, shall we?




Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings

Image result for drew brees falconsThe bye weeks are over, and this is the last week to get your fantasy teams in the playoffs.  Of course you might already be in or out or whatever, but it's more dramatic to think you need this win to get into the playoffs.  Regardless of your fantasy situation, let's get right into the rankings so I can focus on more important things like eating delicious side dishes on Thanksgiving.  :)

Hit me up in on Twitter if you have any specific questions that can't be answered by my rankings!






QBs
Ryan Tannehill continues to be a viable starter every single week, and he could just get you to the promised land in fantasy.  He was the #2 fantasy QB in Week 12, and the #3 QB was Sam Darnold, who I had 7 spots higher than the ECR).  Darnold should be a great streamer again this week in Cincinnati, and he faces the Dolphins at home in Week 14.  Giddyup!  Last week I was lowest on Aaron Rodgers (-8 vs ECR), and he didn't even finish in the top-20.  He should bounce back this week against the Giants, but he's no longer the same every week starter he used to be.

RBs
Except for a handful of guys in the 40s, my RB ranks were pretty similar to the ECR last week.  So not a ton to talk about there.  As for this week, right now I'm fairly high on Sony Michel and down on Joe Mixon and Tevin Coleman.  We'll see if that holds true as we get closer to kickoffs for these games.

WRs
Image result for deandre hopkinsI faded Amari Cooper last week in New England (-10 vs ECR), but apparently not enough.  He finished with zero fantasy points, and it's really making DeAndre Hopkins difficult to rank this week.  I assume he'll get shadow coverage from Gillmore, and that has meant fantasy death for so many WRs this year.  I'll probably end up ranking Nuk outside of my top-20, but it's so hard to drop such a talented guy that far...

TEs
I went back to the Ryan Griffin well in Week 12, and he found the endzone again.  If you picked him up off the waiver wire, keep rolling him out there until he stops producing (which I think won't be until at least Week 15).  I was down on Darren Waller last week (-6 vs ECR), and I was right to be low on him.  But with Hunter Renfrow likely out for a while, I expect him to get back to heavy usage in that offense.  I like for him to have a good chance to be the top TE here in Week 13.

DEFs

I finished as the #15 expert in defense accuracy last week and was in the top-30 overall.  It was a good week for me, and I hope to keep the momentum going.  I'm only 81st overall for the season, and I'd love to inch a little closer to the top 50 or 60 rather than fall outside of the top-100.  I'll keep grinding!


As for my betting picks, I've been doing REALLY well in that department lately (and on the season).  But as we saw in Week 9, one bad week can really drop you in the rankings.  I was the #14 expert in Week 12, and I'm currently #12 on the season.  I started playing around with moneyline bets the last couple of weeks, and I might incorporate a few more this week just to see how that goes versus the ATS picks.  It looks like my moneyline picks aren't showing in the table below, but currently I have: Cowboys, Saints, Eagles, Ravens, Rams, and Patriots.

Like my player rankings, I'll update these picks as the week goes on as well so feel free to check back before kickoff if you care to see who I've picked and who I might've taken off.





Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings

Image result for brian hill falconsSometimes you make the wrong start/sit call and it's the difference in a win versus a loss.  That was the case for me in Week 11 when I plugged Brian Hill into my FLEX spot for John Brown.  I didn't want to sit John Brown because he had a great matchup and has been very consistent.  But the rest of my lineup was set, and this was the only real decision to make.  I liked Hill's opportunity against a Panther defense that had been one of the worst against RBs over the last month.  And if you look at the opportunity, it actually was pretty good.  He was a bit unlucky getting vultured by Ollison for one score and then a holding penalty called another potential TD back.  It could've been a totally. different narrative if Hill found the endzone once or twice, but he didn't.  John Brown hit paydirt twice though, and those points were left on my bench.  It happens...

But now it's onto Week 12, and it's the last week of byes (woohoo!).  I'll do my best to accurately answer most of your start/sit questions with my rankings below, and if I can't, then I'll at least show my work if you have a question about someone.  Feel free to hit me up in the comments section or (even easier) on Twitter!






QBs
I wasn't super high/low on any QBs in Week 11, so I'll just remind you that Ryan Tannehill is back from his bye and back into the streaming conversation.  Check your waiver wire because he's probably on it...and there could be even better options out there.  Sam Darnold, anyone...?  Jeff Driskel?  I have plenty of waiver wire guys in my top-15 or so QBs this week.

RBs
I've been down on stud RBs facing the Bucs for some time now, and I didn't have Kamara in my top-12.  That turned out to be the wrong call last week, but I did have Mark Ingram in my top-12, and he scored twice against the Texans.  This week with Marlon Mack injured, I'm pretty much forced to start Brian Hill against Tampa, but I don't like it.  With Dalvin Cook on a bye though, Saquon is my only other healthy RB and the waiver wire is THIN.  So here's to hoping Hill can do what Kamara did against the Bucs last week.  Ha!  Not likely...

WRs
I was high on Mohamed Sanu and Jamison Crowder last week, but only one of those worked out well.  Crowder has been amazing with Sam Darnold, and he cracks my top-15 WRs this week.  I also have Jarvis Landry up there, as I think Baker Mayfield will go off against the Dolphins.  I'm probably going to stack Baker and OBJ in DFS, but I'm considering working Landry into a lineup as well.

TEs
Related imageI was 10 spots higher than the ECR on Ryan Griffin last week, and that proved to be accurate.  He actually finished as the #1 TE in Week 11, so as it turns out, I wasn't nearly high enough on him.  With a bunch of top tight ends on byes and/or injured this week, Griffin is actually in my top-5.

DEFs
I've been doing pretty well ranking defenses lately, and I'll try to keep that going here in Week 12.  As of right now, I'm not too high on many Ds versus the ECR, but I'm down on quite a few.  We'll see how that shakes out come Sunday.

And speaking of Sunday, let's get right into my Week 12 picks and finish this thing up!  Last week was a good one with my betting picks, as I went 5-0 ATS (my best this season) and 12-4 overall.  I hope I can keep it rolling here in Week 12!



Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings

Did you survive the bye-nado or bye-mageddon or whatever people were calling it?  Only two more weeks of byes and then a full slate of games in Week 13 before the fantasy playoffs.  The fantasy season sure goes by fast, doesn't it?  Let's get right to the rankings!







QBs
I was high on Ryan Tannehill for maybe the third week in a row, and I said he'd be a good streamer again versus the Chiefs.  And although it wasn't pretty, he finished as a top-12 fantasy QB.  He's on a bye this week, so he's likely to hit a lot of waiver wires.  If you're in need of a quarterback and can afford the bench space, I think he's actually worth a stash.  I know that sounds kinda crazy, but he's produced and he has a nice schedule Weeks 12-16. 

RBs
Image result for alvin kamaraI've been down on studs facing the Bucs in recent weeks, and Week 10 was no different.  The combination of David Johnson/Kenyan Drake did nearly nothing.  If you haven't been fading RBs versus Tampa, it's time to start.  I realize that's tough with someone like Kamara, and I'm sure you're starting him (especially with 4 teams on a bye), but I don't have him anywhere near a top-12 RB this week.

WRs
I was high on Ted Ginn versus the ECR in Week 10, and I even started him in DFS to round out a lineup.  I was shocked to see Drew Brees struggle against that Falcon defense, especially coming off a bye!  It was just so unexpected.  I thought the Saints would put up 30+ points, but they were terrible.  It's a bounce back game this week against Tampa, as everyone seems to be able to do it through the air against them (not so much against the run, as I mentioned above).  I might back off Ginn a bit this week, but I'm not backing off Brees.

TEs
Image result for darren fells texansI was finally good at ranking the TE position in Week 9, but I was back outside the top-100 experts at the position in Week 10.  It continues to be my Achilles heel, and I absolutely hate ranking the position in general.  So while I may be high/low on certain guys this week, I just don't feel that confident about the position given my track record.

DEFs
Defenses on the other hand, I've been decent at ranking this year.  I'm currently sitting at 33rd on the season among the 150 or so experts, and I was 16th last week.  I hope to keep that rolling here in Week 11.

Let's wrap this up and get right into my Week 11 picks, shall we?


Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings

Week 9 was a "burn the tape" kind of week for me.  I lost in my money league for the first time since Week 1, and my betting picks were the worst all season. I'm talking 5-10 bad.  Ugh.

I was also bad with my rankings.  I'd been struggling with the tight end position all year, and wouldn't you know it?  I actually finished 16th at that position in Week 9.  Not bad, right?  The problem was all of the other positions.  I didn't even crack the top-100 in a couple of those.  Yikes!

Image result for ryan tannehillMy biggest question heading into last week was the Patriot defense and whether or not they'd show up against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.  Well, they definitely came back down to earth and now have their bye week.  After that, they return to face the likes of Wentz, Dak, Watson, and Mahomes.  I might actually be rolling with two defenses for the next month because I'm not sure I'll be able to trust the Patriots in Weeks 12-14.  But if you own the Patriots defense you likely have a good record, and you'll want to hang onto them for the fantasy playoffs when they get the Bengals and Bills in Weeks 15 and 16.

In any event, it's on to Week 10 with the bye-pocalype upon us.  You'll probably be starting someone you wouldn't ordinarily be starting this week, so hopefully I can give you someone better than Phillip Dorsett or Danny Amendola.  I liked both last week more than the ECR, but both were duds.  And I definitely need to get back on track with my betting picks.  Last week was a nightmare!

Let's see who I like here in Week 10, shall we?

To the rankings!







QBs
I was highest on Ryan Tannehill versus the ECR last week (+8), and I only had him ranked as my #17 QB.  Tannehill finished as a top-10 QB, so he once again proved to be a great streamer.  That streak could certainly end this week, but I'm going to ride the hot hand and rank him nearly in my top-12.

RBs
Image result for kenyan drakeIn Week 8, I was down on studs with bad matchups like Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry.  The ECR had them as top-12 plays, but I did not.  Neither finished as top-20 RBs in Week 8, and Henry especially struggled against Tampa's stout run defense.  That had me keeping Chris Carson outside of my top-12 RBs last week, and I was 7 spots lower than the ECR on him.  That turned out to be right as Carson didn't finish in the top-20 against the Bucs.  David Johnson and Kenyan Drake are hard enough to figure out this week, and factor in that their facing that run D and it's hard to rank either in the top-25 (even with all of the bye weeks!).

WRs
Last week I said I wasn't sure how many times I could be high on Phillip Dorsett before I finally give up on him.  Well, I think it's time to give up on him.  It seemed like Mohamed Sanu played every snap, and he had a huge game against the Ravens.  I expect more of the same after his bye week, and Dorsett will likely be fairly boom or bust (heavy on the latter).  As for Sanu, I look at him as the #2 WR in New England now, and he will likely be the #1 guy over Edelman some weeks as well.

TEs
Remember when I said if I could figure out how to rank tight ends better I could probably be closer to top-30 or 40 in Expert Accuracy for the season?  Well, that only works if I do well in the other positions too.  I hope to keep it going this week at the position, and maybe being down on guys like Ebron and Hockenson will help and not hurt my accuracy!

DEFs
I talked about the Browns/Broncos game in this spot last week.  I had the Browns as a top-10 play but not the Broncos.  As it turned out, neither was a top-10 unit, so I was half right.  Back to the Browns for a second though.  I thought Week 9 was going to be the turning point for their season, but I was wrong.  Apparently the Browns are going to continue to be the Browns for a while longer.  We'll see if Week 10 is finally the time they turn it around.  You never know.  They could be like the 2012 Redskins who were 3-6 after Week 9 and ended up winning 7 straight and taking the division with a 10-6 record!  I realize that's an extreme example, but the schedule is still quite nice for the Browns: BUF, PIT, MIA, @PIT, CIN, @ARI, BAL, @CIN.  


I've already mentioned it was a ROUGH week for me with my picks versus the spread in Week 9 (ATS & O/U).  I was doing really well through 8 weeks, but Week 9 really brought me down.  But like I said, it was a burn the tape week.  Time to get back on track.

Let's check out my Week 10 picks below:





Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings

Image result for lamar jackson patriotsThe bye weeks haven't felt too bad yet, have they?  The NFL eased us into it way back in Week 4 with just the Jets and Niners on bye.  There were other weeks sprinkled in there with only two teams on bye, including just the Ravens and Cowboys last week.  But those days are over.  There are 4 teams off in Week 9 and then 6 teams off next week!  Then four more teams are off again in each week after that.  Luckily that's all over after Week 12, but until then you'll have to navigate with the waiver wire and you might want to consider even making a trade (*gasp*).

And if you haven't started looking a week ahead, now is the time.  In fact, try to make a trade with someone who you might be playing in a couple of weeks.  If it means you can get an edge on an RB or WR spot over that opponent, why not?  Of course consider the long term impact too, but depending on your record, you might need that win in the next few weeks just to make the playoffs!  Oh and keep an eye on your league's trade deadline too because it's probably soon.

If you're not into trades, then at least work the waiver wire.  Don't only look ahead and pick up a defense for Week 10 (like I did with the Patriots off that week), but take a look at who gets dropped the next couple of weeks.  Other people might be forced to cut someone like Jared Goff (I did) or Saints D (someone else did in my money league).  You never know who might hit the waiver wire.  Maybe your team isn't getting hit hard with the byes until Week 11 or 12 and you can stash someone like Brandin Cooks who could find himself out multiple weeks with a concussion.  Their owner might be 4-4 and can't afford to waste the roster spot through the bye weeks.  Like I said...you never know.  Don't just look at waivers on Wednesday and forget about it until Sunday.  There could be guys available later in the week who were dropped on Wednesday.

OK.  Enough of the intro.  Short version is this: pay attention and keep grinding.

Let's do the rankings!







QBs
I had Ryan Tannehill as a top-10 play in Week 8 (+4 vs ECR), and I was 6 spots lower than the ECR on Kyler Murray.  Tannehill finished 11th and Kyler Murray 26th, so I was relatively right on those guys.  In fact I wrote that the Saints would beat the Cardinals 24-10, and a late Michael Thomas touchdown made the final score 31-9.  Pretty close!  This week I'm still a little high on Tannehill versus the ECR, but we'll see how the ECR shakes out come Sunday because it tends to be pretty variable as the week goes on.  

RBs
Image result for chris carson sadI wasn't too high/low on many RBs versus the ECR last week, but I was down on studs with bad matchups like Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry.  The ECR had them as top-12 plays, but I did not.  Neither finished as top-20 RBs in Week 8, and Henry especially struggled against Tampa's stout run defense.  The Seahawks face the Bucs this week, so Chris Carson is down in the rankings a bit for me.  I realize you're probably starting him regardless, but I'd much rather start Wilson/Lockett in DFS instead of Carson.  And I'm not ranking Chris Carson anywhere near a top-12 RB this week.  You can't make me!

WRs
I ended up being way down on T.Y. Hilton last week (-14 vs ECR), and he struggled against Denver (I assume mostly due to Chris Harris).  In fact, if it wasn't for a late scramble and deep pass by Brissett, Hilton would've easily finished outside of the top-50.  In my top-40 WRs, I was highest on Devante Parker (+14 vs ECR), but he wasn't great on MNF.  He finished ahead of T.Y. Hilton though!  :)

I'm not sure how many times I can be high on Phillip Dorsett before I finally give up on him, but maybe this is the last week!  But I don't think it will be.  I say he gets 60 yards and a score on Sunday night, and I'm ranking him in my top-30 (about 15 spots higher than the ECR).  I'm also super high on Danny Amendola, but I'm not sure if I'm being irrational or not.  Maybe I'll back off him a bit come Sunday, but for now I also have him as a top-30 WR.  Yeah that's right...

TEs
I thought Josh Hill would score against Arizona, which is why I was 7 spots higher than the ECR on him last week.  That didn't happen.  You know what else didn't happen?  Mike Gesicki having a decent game against the Steelers.  I was 13 spots higher on HIM versus the ECR, and now I'm really wondering why I was high on multiple Dolphins last week.  What was I thinking?!?

Image result for darren fells texansIf I could figure out how to rank tight ends better, I could probably be closer to top-30 or 40 in Expert Accuracy for the season.  As it is, I'm outside of the top-100 at the TE position, and it's really bringing me down!  I'm hoping I can at least crack the top-50 overall rankers in the next couple of weeks, so I have to just keep grinding.  As for the tight ends...while I like Darren Fells and Jason Witten more than the ECR this week, I'm not so sure you should take my advice on that due to my track record at the position.  But then again, it's the tight end position, right?  If you don't have one of the guys in my top-5 this week, just take your pick.  You can feel free to pick anyone from 8-18 off the waiver wire and see what happens!

DEFs
I didn't end up too high/low on defenses versus the ECR last week. This week I like the Browns as a top-10 play...like...EASILY.  I liked them when I thought Flacco was going to be the QB, but now against Brandon Allen?  Yes please!  In that same game, I'm down on the Broncos, as I think this is the week Cleveland gets back on track.  I'm looking for Nick Chubb to go off in this game and the Browns are going to score at will.  You heard me correctly  I know that sounds crazy with how this season has been going, but I just have a feeling...


Another good week for my ATS (5-4) & O/U (4-2) picks in Week 8.  Let's see if I can keep it rolling here in Week 9!






Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

Image result for saquon barkleyIt's been a busy week, so I'm going to skip the intro and get right into the rankings.  The Ravens and Cowboys are the only teams off this week, so hopefully you're not getting hit too hard with players on a bye here in Week 8.

Let's get to it!




QBs
A guy I had near the top-5 in Week 7 and a few spots higher than the ECR was Carson Wentz.  He had multiple touchdowns in every game this season except for the Week 5 blowout of the Jets in which he didn't even throw the ball 30 times.  He flat out sucked against Dallas though, and that was a bad call on my part.  I was actually highest on Dak last week, as I had him 6 spots higher than the ECR and in my top-5.  He finished 8th, so you were definitely happy if you started him, and he certainly did better than Wentz.  This week I have Matthew Stafford as a top-5 play, and I'm 9 spots lower than the ECR on Kyler Murray.  I think the Saints are going to beat the Cardinals something like 24-10 at home.

RBs
Even though he's clearly the bellcow back for the Bengals, I was still down on Joe Mixon versus the ECR last week.  In fact I was 10 spots lower than the expert consensus ranking of him, and he finished at #28 exactly where I ranked him.  If it weren't for his 2 yard receiving touchdown, he would've been one of the worst running backs in Week 7.  If you haven't been benching already, now is the time.  He's now outside of my top-30, and the ECR more or less agrees with me now.

Image result for tarik cohen gifI'm not high/low on too many RBs versus the ECR this week, but I kind of like Tarik Cohen against the Chargers.  He's been getting plenty of targets lately, and David Montgomery has NOT looked good.  Cohen was a slow starter last season too, and it's possible he gets it going this week.  If you're looking for a FLEX, you could certainly do worse than a guy who could break a huge TD at any moment.

WRs
My top-10 was a lot different than the ECR last week.  I had guys like D.J. Chark and Brandin Cooks up there, and that didn't work out too well.  Deeper into my WR rankings I liked Geronimo Allison (+20), Duke Williams (+24), and Kenny Stills (+24).  Duke dealt with an injury.  Geronimo dealt with not being a very good receiver.  As for Stills, he finished in the top-20 after Will Fuller left with a hamstring injury.  This week I actually like him more than the ECR (+10), and I'm ranking him inside my top-25.  I'm really high on DaeSean Hamilton (+28), but maybe that will change in the next couple of days when the rankings catch up to the Emmanuel Sanders news.  Maybe not though.  I think the hole Sanders leaves will quickly be filled by DaeSean, and I think he could end up being a WR3 the rest of the season.  

TEs
Image result for josh hill saintsIn Week 5, Tyler Eifert broke the trend of tight ends going off against Arizona, but we all knew Austin Hooper would start another streak in Week 6.  But in Week 7, it wasn't Evan Engram against the Cardinals but rather Rhett Ellison who found the end zone.  With Jared Cook likely out again, don't sleep on Josh Hill this week.  He faces Arizona and could get a touchdown for the second week in a row.  I currently have him 8 spots higher than the ECR, and he could be a decent streamer if you're desperate.

DEFs
I was down on the Cowboys for the second week in a row, but they actually finished as a top-10 unit against the Eagles on Sunday night.  That was a big surprise to me, but they do tend to be better at home.  I guess I should take that more into consideration.  This week I like the Jags as a top-10 play against a Jets squad whose quarterback is seeing ghosts.  I realize Jacksonville is nowhere near the defense that New England is this year, but I think they could still put up some decent numbers.


I've definitely done better with my O/U picks this season, and that trend continued in Week 7.  While I was only 3-3-1 ATS, I went 7-4 with my over/under picks.  We'll see what happens here in Week 8!




Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

I didn't end up watching a lot of football last Sunday.  My nephew was in town playing in a soccer tournament (which they won!), and I hadn't seen him play in a solid 5 years.  So I spent a good amount of my time watching his U-11 team last weekend, and it was really cool to see him so excited when they won their last game against a team who had beaten them the day before.

NOTE: In a 12 team fantasy league, that's also known as Weeks 12 & 13.  :)

Image result for jared goffSo I was watching kids playing soccer while the Bucs/Panthers game started in London.  I had the start/sit decision at QB between Jared Goff and Jameis Winston.  I wasn't crazy about either, but I gave the edge to Goff because of the total points expected, and I just thought Winston would have a bad game.  Turns out I was right about Winston.  He turned the ball over 6 times, but he still managed 400 passing yards and a 4th quarter touchdown.  Still, I felt good about my start/sit decision as I waited for the later games to kickoff.

I wasn't watching the Rams/Niners game when it started, but I saw on my phone they had a great opening drive that ended with a Robert Woods rushing touchdown.  While I wasn't too happy about that as a Goff owner, I figured this had the makings of a shootout after that good looking opening drive.  Oh how wrong that was.  That was virtually all the offense the Rams would produce in the entire game, and Goff barely finished with positive fantasy points.  I really shouldn't say "points" because he actually ended up with more than zero but less than 1 point in my league.

It's crazy to think that after the Winston debacle of a game, I'd actually want those fantasy points I left on the bench with him.  Luckily I didn't need those fantasy points to win my matchup because fantasy football is just like that sometimes.  In a week where I scored under 100 for the first time all season, I still managed to squeak out the W.

I definitely feel fortunate getting that win, and it's time to refocus and get my team back over the century mark for weekly fantasy points.  With the Bucs, Browns, Panthers, and Steelers all off this week, there are a lot of holes to fill on fantasy rosters.  Hopefully my rankings can help you out!





QBs
After Kirk Cousins torched a bad Giant secondary in Week 5, I was willing to roll him back out there as a streamer against an even worse Eagle unit.  I had him 6 spots higher than the ECR, and that worked out pretty well since he finished as a top-5 QB.  A guy I have near the top-5 this week and currently 5 spots higher than the ECR is Carson Wentz.  He's had multiple touchdowns in every game this season except for the Week 5 blowout of the Jets in which he didn't even throw the ball 30 times.  He'll definitely throw the ball more than 30 times against Dallas.  He has 7 touchdowns in his last 3 games against the Cowboys, so 2-3 scores feels likely.  If he somehow gets DeSean Jackson back this week, I might bump him up another spot or two.

RBs
Image result for joe mixonMy biggest hit in Week 6 was that I was 10 spots higher than the ECR on Tevin Coleman, and he had a solid game in that somewhat surprising victory over the Rams.  He's in my top-12 this week against Washington, and I have Breida nearly in my top-24.  If you happen to have both, start em both!  A guy I'm down on versus the ECR this week is Joe Mixon.  I realize he's the bellcow for that offense, but that offense is the Bengals.  Mixon has fewer than 40 total yards in half of his games this season.  You're probably starting him with all of the bye weeks and likely how your roster is constructed if you own him, but I wouldn't feel great about it.

WRs
With all of the byes and injuries piling up, I ranked Jakobi Meyers as nearly a top-50 WR last week.  I realized that was pretty far down my rankings, but he was a serviceable play in a deeper league catching 4 balls for 54 yards.  I liked Calvin Ridley and Curtis Samuel a lot more than the ECR, and that worked out nicely.  But I also liked guys like Willie Snead and Demarcus Robinson more than the ECR, and that was not so good.  It's always a mixed bag, and I'm sure this week will be the same.  Right now I'm more than 25 spots higher than the ECR on guys like Tavon Austin, Phillip Dorsett, and Allen Lazard.  That could totally change between now and Sunday, but just some guys to think about if you're scrambling for a receiver and the waiver wire looks thin.  I bet those guys are all still out there.

TEs
Image result for jason witten yellingIn Week 5, Tyler Eifert broke the trend of tight ends going off against Arizona, but we all knew Austin Hooper would start another streak.  As long as Evan Engram is healthy here in Week 7, he's a lock for a top-5 finish against the Cardinals.  I got a goose egg from the tight end position last week because Will Dissly tore his Achilles and had no catches before leaving the game.  I feel bad for the guy, as he was having a great start to the season.  I thought he'd be my starter the entire year, but now I'm scrambling to make a trade.  This week I picked up Jason Witten who I like slightly more than the ECR against the Eagles.  With Amari Cooper and potentially Randall Cobb also out for this game, I expect Witten to at least get plenty of targets.  And with the tight end position, after the first few guys, that's about all you can ask for.

DEFs
Speaking of the Cowboys, I didn't buy them as a top-5 fantasy defense against the Jets, but the ECR had them at #2 last week!  They didn't do much in another surprising loss, and I'm down on them again this week.  I know they play better at home, but I have them outside of my top-20.  It's tough for me to recommend a streaming defense this week that I like more than the ECR, so just check the rankings and see if you can grab someone in my top-12.


I was a terrible 1-7-1 ATS in Week 5, but I did better in Week 6.  Still not great though, as I was 4-4.  I was 4-1 with my over/under picks in Week 5, and I kept it rolling in Week 6 going 6-2.  I've definitely done better with my O/U picks, and let's see if that continues here in Week 7!



Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings

Image result for chris godwinFor the second week in a row, I left fantasy points on my bench due to a player having a questionable tag and a late game.  Fortunately for me, it didn't matter in either case (I still won both matchups).  It's a lesson I almost learned from Week 4 with Chris Godwin, but not quite.  In Week 5, I picked up Jordan Wilkins in preparation for Marlon Mack potentially sitting out the Sunday night game.  But I got cold feet at the last minute and plugged Wayne Gallman into my lineup.  Of course that turned out to be the wrong choice due to Gallman leaving the game super early with a concussion, and Mack had a solid game against the Chiefs.  If this happens again, I'll try the backup plan strategy and hope my starters continue to play through the questionable tag.

This week, with Mack on a bye and Saquon/Gallman both out tomorrow night, I won't really have any lineup decisions to make.  I'm basically starting everyone on my team who is healthy.  If you're also struggling with byes/injuries here in Week 6, hopefully my rankings can help navigate you to a win!






QBs
My QB rankings don't deviate too much from the ECR.  That's just the nature of the position as we're now almost halfway through the fantasy regular season.  But after last week's performance against a bad Giant secondary, I'm willing to trust Kirk Cousins as a streamer against what may be an even worse Eagle unit.  As a Dalvin Cook owner, I don't like to see Philly on the schedule.  But if you own Thielen, you should be licking your chops.  And I think Cousins could have a 300 yard day and 2+ touchdowns in Week 6.  

RBs
Image result for kenyan drake dolphinsI liked David Montgomery to finally break out against the Raiders last week in London, but his numbers just haven't been there yet.  He still got plenty of touches and found the endzone, so you were fine if you started him.  But the breakout will have to wait until at least Week 7.  This week, I like Kenyan Drake a bit more than the ECR against a bad Washington defense.  I tend to like teams coming off their bye week because everyone gets a little healthier with the extra time off.  In the case of the Dolphins, they can use every edge they can get.  Still, I think Drake could pile up some yardage and maybe even find the endzone in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair.  With two bad defenses, I think it could actually go over the total, and Drake is a borderline RB2 for me this week.

WRs
I really liked Phillip Dorsett last week, who had a great matchup in Washington.  I even liked him enough to plug him into my FLEX spot...How did I still win my matchup last week?!?  Oh right.  Everyone else balled out.  Anyway, Dorsett left in the first quarter with a hamstring injury and didn't return.  He's already been ruled out for tomorrow night's game, which has me ranking Jakobi Meyers as a top-50 WR.  I realize that's still pretty far down my rankings, but with all of the byes and injuries, maybe you take a flyer in a deeper league.


TEs
In Week 5, Tyler Eifert broke the trend of tight ends going off against Arizona, but Austin Hooper should be ready to start another streak this week.  The tight end position is so awful to rank.  After the top 6 or so, just throw a dart.  Jimmy Graham on Monday Night Football?  Sure, especially if Davante Adams misses another game.  Jared Cook finally found the endzone last week.  Can he do it again?  Probably not, but whatever.  If you don't have one of the top-6, just follow your heart.

DEFs
Image result for sad cowboys defense packersI'm having a hard time buying the Cowboys as a top-3 fantasy defense this week like the ECR currently has them.  With the Jets getting Sam Darnold back, I have to think this offense will look much better this week.  Dallas looked terrible against the Packers and couldn't stop Aaron Jones.  This could be a big day for Le'Veon Bell, and if Darnold can take care of the ball, I'm not so sure the Cowboys are an elite play this week.


Last week was one to forget for my picks against the spread.  I was a terrible 1-7-1.  YIKES!  I made up for it slightly going 4-1 with my over/under picks, but those ATS picks were awful.  It's crazy the ups and downs with the betting picks.  I had the #1 rankings of all of the FantasyPros experts for Week 3, and I was nearly the worst in Week 5.  I'm still above the Expert Consensus line for the season, but I'd like to bounce back to get my overall ranking back up there.  For now, here are my picks for Week 6.  I'll adjust them as the week goes on, so feel free to check back if you care to see my updates.






Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings

I've been using the FantasyPros platform for my rankings for about a year now, but this is the first season I've been included in the accuracy rankings.  So I was pretty pumped when I saw I cracked the top-10 for Week 4!  But much like your fantasy team, there's no time to bask in the glory of a win.  OK.  Maybe you can bask for an hour or so, but that's it!  Basking time over!

It's time to get back to the grind, make those waiver claims, and adjust your roster for Week 5.  The bye weeks are in full force now, but it hardly feels like it since I can't imagine many people missing Dolphins from their fantasy teams.  Lions, sure.  Dolphins?  Just waive them and move on.  Or for most of you, just continue to scroll over them as you look at the waiver wire.

Image result for melvin gordon chargersThe Antonio Brown drama feels like it's finally over, and October suddenly feels like Melvin Gordon SZN.  Week 5 means also means our first game of 2019 in London, but it's the Chase Daniel-led Bears against the mediocre Raiders.  At least the game isn't on at 9am EST though, right?  It can blend into Red Zone with the rest of the 1:00 games, and we can see those David Montgomery highlights along with all of the other TDs.  Yeah, I like for the rookie to break out in this one.

Let's check out the rest of my Week 5 rankings along with my picks versus the spread & over/under at the end!







QBs
I was actually a little high on Derek Carr versus the ECR last week, and he played well against a banged up Colts defense.  Don't trust him against the Bears though.  There are much better streaming options this week like Jacoby Brissett or Andy Dalton.  Yes, I realize Dalton was terrible on Monday Night Football.  That's what he does.  You can trust him this week against the Cardinals at home.  

RBs
Image result for damien williams chiefsI liked Darrel Williams as a potential FLEX play last week, and he didn't disappoint with over 50 total yards and two TDs.  But this week it looks like Damien Williams might be healthy for the Sunday night game against the Colts, so it's time to mix that group up a bit again.  I tend to think Damien and Shady will split time and Darrel will be the odd man out, but we shall see.  I mentioned how I like David Montgomery to finally break out against the Raiders this week.  He's been getting the touches.  He just hasn't done much with them.  You have to like the usage though, and I think Oakland's defense is just what the doctor ordered.  I'm also ready to trust Melvin Gordon right away, and I've already lowered Austin Ekeler well below the ECR.  We'll see if that's how it plays out, but that's how I see it.

WRs
I was WAY high on Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week, who broke out a little bit against the Broncos in Week 3.  I thought he would go for 99+ yards and a score for the second week in a row, but that didn't happen on Thursday night.  With Davante Adams likely missing a week or two though, I'm keeping MVS high in my rankings, and I've moved Allison way up as well.  This week I also really like Phillip Dorsett who has a great matchup in Washington.  He was peppered with targets last week, but Buffalo's defense is just flat out good.  Washington's is not.  I'll probably be plugging him into my own FLEX spot this week because I trust 7 or 8 targets from Tom Brady in a game where I think he'll look to put up some numbers after a down week.

TEs
Image result for tyler eifertWill Dissly (aka Big Montana!) kept it rolling against a Cardinal defense that continues to give up the most points to tight ends.  Can you trust Tyler Eifert this week against Arizona?  Yeah, I think you can.  I continue to be down on Jared Cook, which is probably helping my tight end position accuracy.  The guy doesn't even have 100 receiving yards combined in his first four games.  I know the tight end position is a wasteland, but I don't see how you can really consider playing him right now.

DEFs
I'll admit I was kind of high on the Packers defense in the Thursday night game.  They had been really good through 3 weeks, but Wentz and the Eagles made them look pretty terrible.  In fact, Jordan Howard owned them.  Yes, that Jordan Howard.  I wasn't down on many defenses, but I doubled down on the Browns and slightly faded the Ravens.  That turned out to be a good call.  This week I'm rolling with Sacksonville as a top-5 unit.  Kyle Allen had some bad turnovers last week against the Texans, and I think this defense could cause a few this week as well.  I'm not as high as the ECR on the Bengals because I just don't think that defense is very good, and I also like the over in that game.  I can see both of these offenses putting up a lot of points in this one.

Let's see who else I like with my Week 5 picks!




Cheers,
Bart