Thursday, June 3, 2021

2021 Fantasy Football Rankings v2

It's been nearly 5 months since I posted my initial 2021 rankings, and the NFL Draft has shaken them up quite a bit since then.  In the coming months, we could still see guys like Julio Jones and Deshaun Watson shake them up even more.  

I still don't know what to do with Watson.  I'm ranking him like he could miss most of 2021, but who knows right now?  If you're doing an early draft in the next month or two, I would draft like he will miss all of 2021 (i.e. don't draft him unless it's a late round flier). If I were doing an early draft, I'd probably just avoid him altogether personally.  

As for Julio, it seems like he's on the way out but nothing is for sure right now.  I think he's pretty safe to draft in the WR2 range regardless, but his value could change a lot depending on where he lands (if he is, in fact, out of Atlanta). 

I have plenty of other notes next to guys I've moved around, but for now let's get right into it and let me know what you think on Twitter!

Friday, April 30, 2021

2021 NFL Mock Draft - Recap and Notes

Mock drafts are hard.  The fact that Todd McShay got the first 7 picks exactly right is impressive.  I ended up getting the same amount of right picks as guys like Mel Kiper and Daniel Jeremiah.  Not bragging.  This is just to say after the first few picks of a mock draft, it usually goes out the window because one or two picks has a domino effect on the rest.  Throw in a few trades, and you mostly rip the whole thing up.

Here's what I got right from my Round 1 mock:

1. Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville

2. Zach Wilson - NY Jets

3. Trey Lance - San Francisco


15. Mac Jones - New England


18. Jaelan Phillips - Miami

I could have played it safer and gotten a couple more right by having Pitts to the Falcons at #4 and Najee Harris to the Steelers at #24.  But honestly I just didn't think those things were going to happen, so I stuck to my guns. It's more fun to go against the grain with a mock draft. Why the hell not?

Let's get right into a few notes on the fantasy implications of some of the big picks in Round 1.

1. Trevor Lawrence: A top-20 fantasy QB this year with top-12 potential if everything goes right.

2. Zach Wilson: This pick has "bust" written all over it for me. Maybe I'll be totally wrong here, but this has a Tim Couch vibe to me. He should start from Day 1, so I'll rank him as a borderline QB2, but I doubt I'll draft him in any leagues.

3. Trey Lance: It'll be interesting to see if Jimmy G still gets traded in the coming days/weeks. If he doesn't, I could see him starting Week 1 while the Niners bring Lance along. But don't think Lance will sit a whole year. No chance, Lance. You might actually be able to draft him with one of your last picks in your fantasy draft, and that could be a steal.

4. Kyle Pitts: Not that anyone was excited about Hayden Hurst, but you can now safely remove him from consideration. As for Pitts, a Julio trade would boost him into top-5 TE territory for me. For now, I'll probably have him around the TE10.

5. Ja'Marr Chase: I really thought the Bengals would draft Sewell here. But then Chase showed up to the draft wearing shoes with Bengal colors, and that should've tipped me off. Hindsight, right? I loved Higgins and Boyd before this pick, and now I'm not sure what to do. What I do know is I'll be trying to draft Burrow everywhere in the middle rounds.

6. Jaylen Waddle: I'm still surprised the top of this draft went like a fantasy draft with so much offense, and then later with two running backs? Man. Anyway, this is great news for Tua. Not sure I'll draft much of Chase or Waddle this year because someone will usually reach higher than I will for rookie WRs, but Tua makes for a great late round QB target. Fuller and Parker down.

10. DeVonta Smith: The Eagles traded up two spots with the Cowboys to make sure the Giants didn't get the Heisman winner. I actually love this pick. I know Philly hasn't done well with WRs in the draft lately, but I think they're good here. I already had Jalen Hurts as a top-12 option, and I hope to get him or Burrow in the middle of my drafts this year. As for Smith, he'll probably be my favorite rookie WR to target this year too.

11. Justin Fields: I love this pick too! I also find it hilarious looking back at the Bears sending that "Andy Dalton QB1" tweet when they signed him. This is much better, guys. Well done. I'm not sure how to rank Fields just yet, but this feels a lot like Trey Lance. I could see Dalton starting Week 1 like Garoppolo. But these rookies won't be on the sideline long. Fields is another great target to stash on your bench near the end of drafts.

15. Mac Jones: I got this pick right in my mock, but I'm not excited about it for fantasy at all. Maybe my mind will change once training camp and preseason rolls around, but for now I just see Jones as Cam's backup to start the season. Maybe he starts by mid-season, but do I care for fantasy? Not really.

19. Jamin Davis: I know, defense. But Washington is my team, and this defense is legit. I was hoping they would take Darrisaw here, but they like Davis. Fine with me. I'll be drafting WFT as a top-5 fantasy defense this year.

20. Kadarius Toney: LOL. As a Washington fan, I love this pick for the Giants. Everyone is hating on it, including me. I thought they would've been better off with any of the next three picks made after them, but they wanted a receiver. I'll be pretty much ignoring Toney in redraft leagues this year. I don't think this impacts my rankings of the other Giant receivers really.

24. Najee Harris: I really thought the Steelers would draft a replacement for Maurkice Pouncey here, but maybe they'll be able to do that with one of their next couple of picks. As for Najee, this is a great landing spot. While the O-line is a little suspect, the workload should be there for the rookie from Day 1. James Conner is gone, and Benny Snell leaves much to be desired. Harris will likely in Round 2 of most fantasy drafts.

25. Travis Etienne: RIP James Robinson's fantasy outlook. Sure, Urban Meyer said he sees Robinson/Hyde as a one-two punch with Etienne as a third down back.  What the hell does that mean in April? Not much. I already had Robinson lower than most experts, but I'll be dropping him even more. This pick was a head scratcher for me, and it really stinks for Robinson's outlook. As for Etienne, I'll probably be ranking him in the RB30ish range, but that might even be a little high.

27. Rashod Bateman: I love this pick for the Ravens. I had Bateman mocked to the Titans a few picks earlier, and the fact that the Giants took Toney over him is great. Lamar Jackson needed a weapon like this, and he got it. I still like Hollywood Brown's 2021 outlook about the same, and Bateman is in a better spot for real life than fantasy probably. I won't move him up much, but I just really like this pick for Baltimore and for Lamar.

29. Eric Stokes: In case you were wondering, Stokes is not a wide receiver. Aaron Rodgers doesn't seem too happy with Green Bay's front office, and I can't say I blame him. They still have 9 picks in this draft though, so stay tuned...

A few guys I had in my first round mock who didn't get drafted: Azeez Ojulari, Tevin Jenkins, Trevon Moehrig, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and Christian Barmore. Of course everyone can't go in the first round, but I fully expect these guys to go in Round 2 and could be good values.  

Rounds 2 & 3 are tonight, and here are just a handful of players/teams to keep an eye on...

Javonte Williams: Easily the best running back left in the draft. I'd love to see him go to Atlanta with the third pick in Rd 2, but I could see the Jets taking him with the second.  Either would be a clear path to touches for fantasy purposes, and most anywhere else would likely cloud a backfield situation.

Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, and Terrace Marshall, Jr.: I could see all of these receivers going in the second round. Rondale seems like a great fit for the Jags, but they have to draft defense at some point, right? A lot of people had Elijah Moore as a first round pick, so his landing spot will be interesting. I'd still love to see him somewhere like Green Bay, but I have zero confidence they'll draft a WR. Detroit could actually be a nice spot for him or Terrace Marshall, Jr. The Chargers and Titans would both be interesting too.

I may have some more notes over the weekend, but at minimum I'll be updating my redraft rankings as the draft unfolds and will post an update next week!

Friday, April 9, 2021

2021 NFL Mock Draft - Round 1

It's crazy to stop and think about how life was a year ago when I was doing my 2020 NFL Mock Draft.  I'm not even talking about where we were as a country and planet earth in this pandemic, but rather what was going on for me personally...

My wife was almost 9 months pregnant with our second kid, and life was different...and about to change in a big way.  Now my son is almost a year old, my daughter is in love with him, and life is pretty good.  Oh, except my wife and I are both still working from home and the house is super loud and a constant mess.  But the weather is warming up and we're able to get outside more, so at least that's something.  And everyone is healthy, which is the most important thing right now.

What's less important but pretty fun to think about is the NFL Draft is now less than 3 weeks away.  Below you'll find my first mock draft with notes next to each player.  I might get crazy this year and do a Round 2 mock, but we'll see if I have the time to do that.  For now, take a look at my first round selections and let me know what you think on Twitter @bartonwheeler.

Monday, March 1, 2021

Fantasy Football 2021: An offseason prediction for all 32 teams

Last year in January, I sat down to write this super long article for the first time. I'm back at it again, but I'm running late! There's a lot of offseason action already happening, so no more dragging my feet or else I'll run out of predictions to make because they all will have happened. 

So what is this article all about?  Basically it's a look at a couple of offseason moves each team might make (or at least something that is relevant in fantasy).  I don't have any inside information here, so these are mostly just guesses based on my knowledge and tidbits I've picked up here and there.  In fact, last year I actually predicted a few things in this article that ending up happening:

Dolphins still drafted Tua at #5 (a lot of people didn't think that would happen with his offseason hip issues)

Chargers drafted Herbert (a lot of people did think this would happen...including me!)

Cardinals traded David Johnson (I didn't think they'd get Hopkins for him, but good for them!)

Titans re-signed both Tannehill AND Henry (this seemed unlikely at one point to sign both)

Bears cut Trey Burton and sign a free agent tight end

Broncos, Eagles, and 49ers all drafted stud WRs in the first round

Bills drafted a running back to complement Singletary with Frank Gore gone (I thought Gore would retire, but he did turns out he never will)

Logan Thomas to Washington!

Of course I made plenty of predictions that didn't happen, but this is a good way to dig into free agents, and I'll also pick a few rookies to go to different teams where I think they could be good fits.  But I doubt any of those will be right because,'s March 1st.

Since I'm talking about every team, like I said this is a long article.  So I've highlighted team headlines in different colors and text in BOLD in case you just want to scan and find my key points/players for each team or just certain teams.

Here we go!

AFC East

Buffalo Bills cut John Brown & draft a running back in the middle rounds for a 3rd year in a row
The Bills are a really good team without a ton of cap space, and they can likely build around Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs without the high cap hit from John Brown.  In addition to Diggs, the Bills will probably go into 2021 with Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox (TE).  They might draft a WR at the end of the 3rd round, but the Bills have used that round pick on a RB each of the last two seasons with Singletary and Moss.  Will they do it again?  T.J. Yeldon actually played a ton in the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs, and Sean McDermott was quoted when asked about offseason improvements as saying "we've got to run the football better."  I know that sounds pretty generic, but I'm guessing he wasn't happy with the lack of performance or availability of his young guys.  I feel like the Bills will use a 3rd round pick or one of their 5th round picks on the position.  Maybe Jaret Patterson from the University of Buffalo could stay put and play for the Bills or Trey Sermon out of Ohio State could be a between-the-tackles RB for this Super Bowl contender.

Miami Dolphins make another super team in South Beach
Thanks to the Texans, Miami has the #3 overall pick in the 2021 draft in addition to the #18 pick.  In fact, they have four picks in the top-50 (again, thank you Houston for that high second-rounder).  So while it's possible they use one of those top-50 picks on a running back, they actually have a ton of cap room and might try to add a big name via free agency to this backfield.  I'd love to see Aaron Jones get out of Green Bay and get the full workhorse role in Miami.  The big thing I see happening here though is Miami trading that #3 pick back to Houston along with Tua and maybe even a 2nd rounder next year to get Watson to South Beach.  I think the Jets are a smokescreen and Miami is where he'll end up.  And can you imagine if they were creative enough to also get someone like Allen Robinson to join forces?  Watson/A. Jones/ARob would be like LeBron, D Wade, and Bosh all over again!

New England brings back Jacoby Brissett and drafts Mac Jones 
With Tom Brady in Tampa, the Patriots tried the Cam Newton experience in 2020.  Yeah that didn't work.  I think they might try again with a veteran QB in 2021, but this time it'll be someone familiar to Belichick's system in Jacoby Brissett.  The Patriots drafted Brissett in the 3rd round of the 2016 draft, but they turned around and traded him in September of 2017 for WR Phillip Dorsett.  Hopefully that's all water under the bridge now, and New England could bring him back now that he's a free agent again.  I also think they've probably seen enough of 2019 4th round pick Jarrett Stidham to know they might need to draft another QB this year.  They'd likely have to use their 1st round pick to get Mac Jones, and I think they just might.

New York Jets trade Sam Darnold, draft Justin Fields AND Travis Etienne
It's certainly possible the Jets roll with Sam Darnold for one more year, but I think they'll use the #2 pick on a QB.  And especially after Fields looked great against Clemson in the national semifinal, he seems like a no-brainer as a top-5 pick this year.  The Jets have another first round pick from Seattle in the Jamal Adams trade (#23 overall).  Would they take a RB there like Travis Etienne?  I think they could.  Especially if they get a later but not much later draft pick for Darnold in a trade.  I also think they're likely to sign a free agent RB like Mark Ingram to pair with Etienne.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens re-sign the Gus Bus and sign Corey Davis

I'm really interested to see what happens with Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakwoue, but that doesn't mean much for fantasy, now does it?  With the Ravens moving on from Mark Ingram, that leaves J.K. Dobbins to ball out in 2021 and to a lesser extent Gus Edwards to continue being a rock solid fantasy RB3.  Yes, Edwards is also a (restricted) free agent but I think Baltimore will re-sign him. Don't sleep on the Gus Bus if he's back with the Ravens...

The main thing here is it's clear Lamar needs some help out there.  Andrews is a solid tight end, but Hollywood Brown is a field stretcher and not a possession receiver.  There are going to be some big names in the WR free agent market this year, but I doubt the Ravens will dish out money to sign a guy like Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson.  I think it's more likely they could sign a guy like Corey Davis if the price is right.  That would be big for this offense.

Cincinnati Bengals draft another weapon for Burrow at #5 overall
Joe Burrow should be fully recovered and ready for Week 1 of the 2021 season, and he'll have Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to throw the ball to.  I think A.J. Green will finally be gone, and John Ross too.  They'll need to add a WR, so why not draft Ja'Marr Chase to join his old college teammate in Cincy?  Sure, the #5 overall pick is high for a wide receiver.  But it's not like Chase will be there in Round 2 now, will he?

Cleveland Browns sign a veteran WR and maybe draft a running back (yes, seriously)
The Browns actually don't have a ton of holes on offense, but there are certainly some question marks at the wide receiver position.  With OBJ coming off a serious injury and Rashard Higgins likely gone in free agency, Jarvis Landry is the mainstay who Baker can count on in this passing offense.  I could see the Browns bringing Breshad Perriman back to Cleveland.  I also think it's possible that Nick Chubb is the next big name RB to hold out.  Would he do that with Kareem Hunt on the roster?  Seems like he wouldn't have a ton of leverage there, but these holdouts happen every year!  And if the Browns don't want to pay him, what happens then?  Maybe the Browns will use a draft pick on someone like Javonte Williams out of UNC who could be that big back for them in the off chance Chubb holds out.

Pittsburgh Steelers sign Andy Dalton and draft Najee Harris
Ben has hinted that he'll return next year, but his arm looks like it might be done.  Pittsburgh needs to plan to move on from him, but they're not going to land one of the top QBs in this draft with a late first round pick.  I think that means they might try to sign a free agent quarterback, and Dalton makes a lot of sense to me.  He stepped in when Dak went down this year and was a serviceable quarterback.  He's always been a serviceable quarterback.  The Steelers know what he is because they played against him for years when he was in Cincinnati.  With the defense back to full health in 2021, I think this team could compete for a Super Bowl with someone competent under center.  Dalton could be good insurance for Ben and could be fine in 2022 if they're in a position to draft a QB then.  I also don't think Pittsburgh will bring James Conner back.  Benny Snell is fine, and they drafted Anthony MacFarland last year...but I think they'll draft another RB.  Najee Harris at the end of the first round could be a great fit in Pittsburgh and would instantly be in the RB1 discussion.

AFC South

Houston Texans cut David Johnson too, draft a running back in the later rounds

The Texans don't have a draft pick in the first two rounds this year due to trades made by B.O.B. (who is no longer there of course).  There's a new GM and a new coach in town, so big changes could be coming like I mentioned in my prediction that Watson goes to Miami.  I think they'll likely re-sign Will Fuller to a reasonable "prove it" type contract, especially considering the market won't be great with Fuller's PEDs/injury history. But I'm more interested in who this new GM drafts with the 6 picks he has between pick #100-200.  That's where the new guy could prove his worth, and I could see a running back picked in the middle rounds there making a difference right away in Houston.  They've already cut Duke Johnson, and I think David Johnson could be next to free up even more cap space.  That would pave the way for a cheap veteran and/or more importantly a 4th or 5th round rookie RB to be useful right away in fantasy.  I'm thinking a guy like Kylin Hill could slip due to his off the field issues, but he'd be a steal in the later rounds and could be a 3-down back in the NFL.  

Indianapolis Colts add Zach Ertz to go along with Wentz
The $25 million Philip Rivers experiment was fine, but let's be honest: it didn't really work.  I originally thought Stafford might go to Indy, and then I pivoted to predict the Colts would take on Wentz's contract to reunite him with Frank Reich.  It just made too much sense, right?  Of course in the time it has taken me to write this article, that's already happened.  So I'll say Zach Ertz comes along for the ride as well.  Does that mean he'll be a top-5 fantasy TE again?  Probably not.  But top-12?  Sure.

Jacksonville Jaguars move up from #21 overall to draft Kyle Pitts
The Jags currently have 11 picks in the 2021 draft, and of course that includes the #1 overall pick.  What a great position to be in for Urban Meyer, right?  You get Trevor Lawrence to pair with a good, young WR corps.  With all of these picks, I think it's possible they trade up from #21 to get a generational talent at the tight end position.  They'll try to keep Pitts in the state of Florida and give Trevor another big weapon to throw to.  And of course the Jags can't leave a draft without a WR, so I'll say they snag a guy in the 4th round like Sage Surratt or Warren Stewart - guys who will likely fall due to opting out of the 2020 season.  One last thing about the Jags because I think they'll be making a lot of changes this offseason: I don't expect James Robinson to be the same workhorse RB in a new offense with likely a new coordinator.  I think the Jags will bring in a veteran like Marlon Mack or Wayne Gallman to compete.

Tennessee Titans sign a WR in free agency
Corey Davis is an unrestricted free agent, and the Titans didn't pick up his option so I'm fairly certain he's gone.  I think they'll sign someone boring like Marvin Jones or maybe even A.J. Green.  Whoever they sign could have fantasy value because Corey Davis would leave a lot of targets behind. 

AFC West

Denver Broncos trade for Sam Darnold

Drew Lock ain't it.  This team has a stable of great young receivers in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant.  Tim Patrick and at times KJ Hamler also showed they could produce in this offense, and Daesean Hamilton provides good depth.  They don't have an immediate need at receiver, but they DO need someone who can get them the ball.  The Broncos aren't a QB away from a Super Bowl, so I think they'll try to trade for someone who is young but still has some potential to be good in this league.  I'll say the Broncos trade a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Darnold (who is still on a cheap contract).  He just might revitalize his career moving to Denver and finally getting away from Adam Gase.  Let's just hope Gase doesn't somehow pop up in Denver too...

Kansas City Chiefs draft a WR in the first two rounds
Just like last year, the Chiefs are a Super Bowl team that doesn't really have any holes (except for maybe O line depth, obviously).  They had the luxury of drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire at the end of Round 1 last year, and I think they'll do the same this year but with the WR position.  Of course if there's a huge offensive line value they like at the end of the first round, maybe they wait until Round 2 to grab a WR.  But I think they'll do it in Rd 1 and get someone like Kadarius Toney in that spot.

Las Vegas Raiders sign JuJu and draft a RB to complement Josh Jacobs
The Raiders have a history of not only drafting WRs but also adding them in free agency.  Last year they drafted both Ruggs and Edwards, and they also signed Nelson Agholor.  I think Agholor will be gone, and they've already cut ties with Tyrell Williams.  That would leave plenty of cap space to sign a guy like JuJu Smith-Schuster who might just want to make his way back toward the west coast.  OK, so Vegas isn't on the coast but he's almost there!  And maybe it's the Tik Tok dances or the funny commercials, but JuJu just screams Vegas to me.  Also with Jalen Richard to be an unrestricted free agent after next season, it would be smart for the Raiders to draft a guy like Michael Carter out of UNC in the middle rounds.  He profiles as a smaller, pass catching RB and could be a good addition to this offense.

Los Angeles Chargers sign Hunter Henry long term, draft another WR, sign Chris Carson
For the second year in a row, there will be a lot to figure out with this team in the offseason.  Last year it was Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon gone.  This year it could be Hunter Henry.  They slapped the franchise tag on him last year, but now it's time to sign him to a long term deal (I think they will).  Melvin Ingram and Mike Pouncey are unrestricted free agents too, though not as important to fantasy of course.  The Chargers have a new coach and a promising young QB in Justin Herbert with solid veteran receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  While Allen is locked up long term, Williams is only under contract through 2021, and the same can be said for Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton.  I think they'll use a higher pick on a WR this year, and I could see someone like Terrace Marshall, Jr. going in the middle of the second round to LA (I assume they'll use their 1st round pick on O line).  I think it's also possible with the amount of projected cap space the Chargers will have, they might bring in a big free agent RB like Chris Carson to pair with Ekeler.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys franchise Dak again but get another receiver (or two) in free agency

I thought the Cowboys would make Dak Prescott a rich man last offseason, but they signed Amari Cooper to a huge deal instead.  It's very possible Michael Gallup is gone, so they might draft another WR or even TE (Kyle Pitts at the #10 spot could happen).  Maybe they sign a guy like Rashard Higgins to add to Lamb & Cooper, but I think it would be interesting if they sign someone like Jonnu Smith to fill in that Jason Witten role.  

New York Giants draft a big time receiver for Daniel Jones to throw to
What the Giants really need to do in this draft is get a guy like Jaylen Waddle in the 1st round.  They need to see what Daniel Jones can do with Shepard, Slayton, Engram, and someone like Waddle. 

Philadelphia Eagles draft Devonta Smith and sign Todd Gurley
The 2020 WR draft class was amazing, but so far it looks like Philly didn't draft one of the good ones in Jalen Reagor.  I think they'll go back to the draft for a WR, and this time they have the #6 overall pick.  When are they going to be that high again to get the kind of talent like Devonta Smith?  I think they'll pull the trigger on him, and I also have a feeling they'll bring in a veteran RB that'll make everyone worry about the value of Miles Sanders in 2021.  Todd Gurley certainly feels like the kind of guy who would do just that.

Washington signs another speedy WR in free agency
I feel like it has been a while since Washington made a big splash in free agency at the RB or WR position.  They have a lot of cap space, and I think they could reunite Curtis Samuel with Ron Rivera.  He's coming off a semi-breakout year in Carolina, and he's a big time playmaker who could provide even more speed opposite Terry McLaurin.  I don't know who the starting QB will be, but this offense could be explosive with Terry, Curtis, and Antonio Gibson.  Logan Thomas had a breakout season, but they could still use some help at the TE position as well.  I'd love to see them sign a guy like Gerald Everett to add depth at that position.

NFC North

Chicago Bears re-sign Trubisky and sign Kenny Golladay

The Bears moved up one spot from 3 to 2 in the 2017 NFL Draft to make sure they got their guy in Mitch Trubisky.  As everyone knows, they drafted him ahead of both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes who went several picks later in that same draft.  So what do they do this offseason with Mitch?  I think they might actually re-sign him to a deal that would be friendly to get rid of him in a year or two when they actually address the QB position.  And regardless of whether that happens or not, I think Allen Robinson will try to sign with a team where he can finally have a chance to win in the playoffs.  With that hole at WR, I could see the Bears signing Kenny Golladay.  Kenny G was born and grew up in Chicago and went to Northern Illinois, so maybe he'd like to head back to the Windy City (as long as he gets PAID of course).

Detroit Lions draft an impact WR (not in the first round)
The Goff/Stafford trade seemed to come out of nowhere, so what does Detroit do with that top-10 pick?  I think they'd be smart to trade back and get more picks because they need a lot.  This team is in full rebuild mode, and I think they'll lose Golladay and Marvin Jones in free agency.  Whoever they do bring in at WR could potentially walk right into 100+ targets.  I could see them drafting a guy like Marquez Stevenson, and Goff could turn him into a top-30 WR right away with enough targets.

Green Bay Packers finally draft a WR for Rodgers
It was obvious to everyone except the front office in Green Bay last year, but the Packers need another reliable wide receiver other than Devante Adams.  The same holds true this year, and I'll double down and say they have to use one of their first three picks at the WR position.  Allen Lazard is an exclusive restricted free agent, so Green Bay could bring him back.  But Davante Adams is entering a contract year, so Green Bay would be smart to lock him up if they can.  If they don't, Davante could be a prime holdout candidate this season.  This all tells me they're finally drafting a WR or two this year, and I'll go with Rondale Moore to Green Bay.  They may even add someone in free agency.  I don't see them making a big splash, but maybe someone like Josh Reynolds or Nelson Agholor.

Minnesota Vikings drafts defense to compete in the NFC North
I know this is a boring take, but I actually think the Vikings need to go heavy on the defensive side of the ball in this draft.  I'm also not that interested in anyone they might draft at the WR or RB positions, so there's not a lot to talk about with Minnesota.  But if they can improve their defense through the draft and free agency, they could compete with Green Bay for the division next year.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons draft Zach Wilson and sign Kenyan Drake

The Falcons didn't re-sign Austin Hooper or Devonta Freeman last offseason, and this year I think they'll continue that trend.  No, I don't think Matt Ryan or Julio will be gone, but there's no way they bring back Gurley on another one year contract.  I think it's more likely they sign someone like Kenyan Drake to a 2 or 3 year contract.  I also think it's possible Zach Wilson could be sitting there for Atlanta at the #4 overall pick, and they'd be smart to draft Matt Ryan's replacement with that top-5 pick.  Just ask Steeler fans if they wish their team had drafted an actual replacement for Big Ben in one of the last couple of drafts.

Carolina Panthers draft Trey Lance to be the next Cam Newton
I'm doubling down on last year because I said the Panthers would be wise to take a QB in that draft.  I thought they might draft Jalen Hurts, which probably would've been a good move in hindsight.  Now they have the #8 pick, and if Detroit doesn't take him then I think Carolina should draft Trey Lance here.  

New Orleans Saints lose Brees to retirement, but bring back Jameis
They have Taysom Hill under contract, but it sounds like the Saints are planning to sign Jameis to some sort of deal for him to be their QB at least in 2021.  I don't really know what they're going to do, but I doubt there will be a huge market for Jameis elsewhere.  He'd be smart to stay there with Sean Payton if he has every opportunity to be the starter.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise Godwin and bring in some old Patriots to reunite with Brady
Not many people saw Brady going to Tampa last offseason, but here we are.  He signed a two year contract, so you have to think he wants to make one more Super Bowl run (at least, right?).  After winning the Super Bowl, I think Antonio Brown would be smart to stick around and try to win another.  But AB and "smart" don't usually collide in the same sentence, so who knows what that dude will do.  I do think the Bucs would be wise to slap the franchise tag on Godwin, and if AB leaves then maybe Brady tries to recruit Edelman and/or James White to Tampa.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals let Kenyan Drake walk and sign James Conner

Drake will want to get paid, and I think he'll find the money somewhere like Atlanta.  Chase Edmonds is a fine running back, but I think the Cardinals try to bring in a guy like James Conner on the cheap.  James Saxon was Conner's RB coach his first couple of years in the league as a Steeler, so he's familiar with him.  This could be a good fit and actually retain some fantasy value for Conner in a good offense.

Los Angeles Rams draft a receiver in the 3rd round
The Rams already made a big offseason move with the Goff/Stafford swap, and there's not a whole lot to consider for fantasy outside of that.  They don't have a 1st round pick this year due to the Jalen Ramsey trade, but they have two 3rd rounders.  Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett could both be gone in free agency, so they'll need another receiver to add to Kupp, Woods, and Van Jefferson.  Whoever they draft likely won't have an instant impact in 2021, but keep an eye on him for dynasty purposes (especially if it's a guy like Rashod Bateman).

San Francisco 49ers land Stephon Gilmore for a draft pick

He's coming off a serious injury, will turn 31 around the start of the 2021 season, and he's entering the final year of a contract.  I think it's very possible a team like the Niners would offer a fairly high draft pick for Gilmore because he could be a big piece of what can still be one of the best defenses in the league when everyone is healthy.  I know this isn't super relevant for fantasy, but if San Francisco can bolster their defense, they could get back to elite status next season. And yes, the big headline for the Niners could be trading Jimmy G to the Patriots for someone like Gilmore. Sure, that's a possibility. But then who is the QB in San Fran. Cam Newton? Trey Lance? It's March, so anything is possible...

Seattle Seahawks sign a former first round WR free agent for the second year in a row
Last year I ended this article with saying the Seahawks would sign Phillip Dorsett, and they did!  This year I'll say that trend continues and they sign John Ross to bring him back to the Pacific NWChris Carson and Carlos Hyde are both free agents, so I'll say they go and the Seahawks sign someone like Leonard Fournette to revitalize his career.  The guy is still young, and you saw what he could do in the playoffs this year.  I don't think Rashaad Penny will be "the guy" for Seattle.  They love to run the football, and there will be multiple guys there to get it done.

So how many of those predictions will be right?  I'm sure a handful. I mean, some aren't even that bold.  It'll be interesting to see as the offseason plays out.  The draft is right around the corner!

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Never Too Early 2021 Fantasy Football Rankings

I've never liked the way a lot of fantasy football writers release their "way too early" rankings for next season.  It's never too early to start thinking about next year!  FantasyPros has their 2021 draft rankings tool available, and they've even added rookies to the list.  So I have it all here in my initial rankings for 2021, and I've added notes next to a few guys as well.  So let's get right into it and let me know what you think on Twitter!

Friday, January 8, 2021

Fantasy Football 2020 End of Year Review

Every year before I get into my first edition of next year's rankings, I take a look back at my preseason articles and see what I got right and what I got wrong.  This is always a long article, but it's fun to go back and check in on those preseason takes.  In fact, I looked at a bunch of these picks midway through the season and wrote about it here.

I won't recap every pick from every article, but each section will have a hyperlink to each piece I wrote in case you want to take a look at all of it.  I'll also show how these picks were looking midseason versus end of season (after Week 16 and not Week 17).  

Let's get to it, shall we?

Back in August, I looked at all 32 teams and tried to find one "value" guy on each squad who I liked the most based on his ADP at that time (Average Draft Position - using FantasyPros as my reference for half PPR leagues).

Here are a few guys I highlighted in that article who were outperforming their preseason ADP at the midway point.  Some of them kept it going but many actually had rough finishes (mostly due to injuries/COVID):

James Conner - ADP 44, midseason RB11, end of season RB25
Tyler Boyd - ADP 76, midseason WR8, end of season WR33
Will Fuller V - ADP 85, midseason WR16, end of season WR25 (missed last 4 games - susp.)
Ronald Jones - ADP 95, midseason RB13, end of season RB17
Darrell Henderson - ADP 111, midseason RB17, end of season RB33
Hayden Hurst - ADP 114, midseason TE8, end of season TE14
Jonnu Smith - ADP 138, midseason TE7, end of season TE9
Chase Edmonds - ADP 193, midseason RB28, end of season RB26
Justin Jefferson - ADP 133, midseason WR18, end of season WR7!

And excluding injuries, these were my really bad takes from that article who I said could be values:
Jordan Howard - ADP 88, midseason RB76, end of season RB86
Golden Tate - ADP 147, midseason WR68, end of season WR87
Ian Thomas - ADP 193, midseason TE48, end of season TE55

My big takeaways here:
Justin Jefferson is awesome.
Will Fuller needs PEDs to stay healthy.
Tyler Boyd could be an amazing value in 2021 because his stock plummeted when Burrow got hurt.

This is by far my favorite preseason article to write every year.  It's a Q&A format that includes my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc. based on historical trends.  I've highlighted a few below that I talked about at the midway point, and I'm following up now to show which one I actually got right!

Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Phillip Lindsay (2018), or Devin Singletary (2019)?
[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues.  He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]

My preseason Answer: Zack Moss
Midseason ACTUAL Answer: James Robinson 
End of season ACTUAL Answer: James Robinson 
Robinson was a top-5 RB, and he missed the last two games of the season.  With the Jags likely revamping their entire coaching staff, I'm not confident he'll get this same workload in 2021, but he'll still be in the RB2 conversation for me.

Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), or Raheem Mostert (2019)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

My preseason Answer: Tarik Cohen
Midseason ACTUAL Answer: Chase Edmonds 
End of season ACTUAL Answer: Nyheim Hines & J.D. McKissic 
Both of these guys ended up just outside the top-20 in half PPR and inside the top-20 in full PPR.  Tarik Cohen unfortunately had a season-ending injury, but we'll see if he can make a run at this category in 2021.

Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), or A.J. Brown (2019)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-20ish fantasy WR.]

My preseason Answer: Tee Higgins
Midseason ACTUAL Answer: Tee Higgins (WR24) & Brandon Aiyuk (WR26)
End of season ACTUAL Answer: Tee Higgins (WR26)
A lot of rookie WRs were being taken in the top-150 or so in August drafts, including guys like CeeDee Lamb & Justin Jefferson, so they were excluded from this question/answer.  Also Brandon Aiyuk finished as the WR31, and he was my honorable mention in my preseason article.  Chase Claypool was actually the WR23, so he could fit this category but if you take away his huge 4 TD game, he was hardly useable.  Tee Higgins is the closest fit for me, and I'll be trying to draft either him or Tyler Boyd next year to get a piece of that Bengal passing attack with Burrow healthy.  
***The big takeaway here is this year's rookie WR class was absolutely stacked.

Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), or Lamar Jackson (2019)?
[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]

My preseason Answer: Daniel Jones
Midseason ACTUAL Answer: I said if Kyler finished as the overall QB1 then it's him.  
End of season ACTUAL Answer: Kyler Murray & Josh Allen
Justin Herbert is a rookie, so he doesn't quite fit this category.  Depending on your format, Kyler Murray might've finished as the QB1, and even in 6 points per passing TD leagues he was top-5.  Either way, it was decidedly NOT Daniel Jones (I'm sorry!).  I guess the answer can be Kyler here, but Josh Allen is right there with him.

This was the very last preseason article I wrote before the season started, and it was a new one this year for me.  I felt like I heard a lot of the same narratives over the summer from people like me who write, tweet, podcast about fantasy football.  I wanted to play devil's advocate and give a take on each team that wasn't being considered much.  These weren't takes I was "all in" on, but it's important not to get too focused on the groupthink mentality and make sure you step back and consider other possibilities.  There were obviously 32 of these, so it was a long article. I'll just highlight a few.

Buffalo Bills
Preseason take:
[If Josh Allen] is better, I think a big part of that could be because he now has Stefon Diggs to throw to...No one is talking up Diggs like he can be a WR1 this year, but he has that potential if Allen can get him the ball.

Midseason Verdict:
Josh Allen was the QB4 around midseason and a big part of that was Diggs (who was the WR6 after 8 weeks and led the NFL in targets).  

End of Season Verdict:
After 16 weeks, Diggs led all WRs in targets, receptions, and yards.  He finished as the WR3 both overall and in fantasy points per game.  Just writing this take in the preseason gave me the perspective to land Diggs in the 6th round in my main league, and he was a big reason why I did so well there.

Indianapolis Colts
Preseason take:
What if Jonathan Taylor gets 75-80% of the carries from Day 1?...In that "Day 1" scenario, I could see Jonathan Taylor finishing as a top-5 fantasy RB.

Midseason Verdict:
The crazy thing is, this was gifted to the fantasy community with the unfortunate injury to Marlon Mack.  Taylor had the opportunity since Day 1 to be the guy.  He just didn't do a ton with that opportunity by midseason.  Still, he was the RB21 at that point and he was past his bye week.  There was still time for him to explode in the second half and finish in the top-5.

End of Season Verdict:
He definitely produced way more in the second half of the season and finished all the way up at RB7.  If the Colts have a competent QB next season and mostly keep that offensive line intact, Taylor should end up in the first round pick conversation in 2021 drafts, and he has the upside to finish as the #1 overall player...seriously.

Tennessee Titans
Preseason take:
What if Ryan Tannehill just keeps doing what he did as a starter in 2019?...Tannehill is getting no love this year, and everyone expects him to regress.  What if he just doesn't...?

Midseason Verdict:
Was anyone outside of Tennessee expecting Tannehill to continue to be a viable fantasy starter this year?  In short, no.  He was the QB10 at the midway point and a consistent fantasy QB week in and week out.

End of Season Verdict: 
Tannehill finished as the QB7, so you were happy if you drafted him in the last round or picked him up off the waiver wire this season.

Detroit Lions
Preseason take:
What if T.J. Hockenson is healthy for all 16 games and is the next George Kittle? 

Midseason Verdict:
While the Kittle-like breakout hadn't quite happened yet, Hockenson was the TE4 at the midway point.

End of Season Verdict: 
Hockenson finished as the TE4 behind just Kelce, Waller, and surprise top-3 tight end this year Robert Tonyan.  I feel like the breakout mostly happened, and there's plenty of meat left on the bone here.  T.J. can be a top-5 fantasy TE again next year if he has a decent QB throwing to him in the event that Stafford ends up leaving Detroit.  

I didn't review these lists in my midseason review article, but let's take a look back and see how many of these I got right at each position.  

As a reminder: These were NOT my preseason position rankings.  

My preseason/draft rankings always have things like injury risk, coaching changes, RB committees, and a ton of other things built into them.  These were my preseason predictions for who could finish the season in the top-12 at each position in a best case scenario with fully healthy seasons.  I highlighted in BOLD the guys who actually finished in the top-12 at their position this year.

My preseason top-12 QBs
Deshaun Watson  
Patrick Mahomes
Kyler Murray 
Lamar Jackson  
Russell Wilson 
Matt Ryan
Dak Prescott  
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen  
Daniel Jones
Cam Newton
Jared Goff

Seeing the top-5 highlighted just goes to show that the QB position can often be somewhat predictable at the top.  But then again, if you spent a first round pick on Lamar or Mahomes, that might not have worked out for drafting a good overall team.  But maybe it did.  One thing that sticks out to me is having Joe Burrow on this list felt bold in the preseason.  But this really could've worked out if not for the season-ending injury, so who knows?  If he fully recovers and is ready for Week 1 of the 2021 season, he'll be a prime late-round QB target who can finish in the top-12.

My preseason top-12 RBs
Ezekiel Elliott 
Saquon Barkley 
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry 
James Conner 
Miles Sanders
Kenyan Drake  
Ronald Jones 
Dalvin Cook 
Jonathan Taylor
Austin Ekeler

It feels like a lifetime ago at this point, but I actually left Alvin Kamara off this list because he was looking like a potential holdout in August.  It's also crazy to look at this list and realize I only got 4 of the top-12 right.  Wow.  Lots of injuries.

My preseason top-12 WRs
Davante Adams 
Michael Thomas  
Adam Thielen 
Tyreek Hill
Will Fuller 
Julio Jones
Robert Woods
Odell Beckham, Jr.
D.J. Moore
DeAndre Hopkins 
Marquise Brown
Kenny Golladay

You'll notice a theme because I didn't project guys to repeat as the #1 at their position.  I said in the preseason that if anyone was going to overtake the single season reception record holder, it was Adams.  And while he didn't come close to that record, he also missed 2.5 games and dominated 2019@cantguardmike in the touchdown department.  I'd also like to point out that I nailed Robert Woods, who I had ranked higher than Kupp.  This was not a common preseason take, and I said I would have no problem drafting Woods as my first WR if I went RB-heavy early in a draft.  That would've worked out well with the consistency from Mr. Bobby Trees, and he'll continue to be a boring/safe pick next year.

My preseason top-12 TEs
George Kittle
Mark Andrews
Travis Kelce 
Hayden Hurst
Zach Ertz
Jonnu Smith
Darren Waller 
Blake Jarwin
Hunter Henry
Chris Herndon
Ian Thomas
Jack Doyle

I really liked Jonnu Smith if you were doing the late-round tight end strategy, but I also had guys like Chris Herndon & Ian Thomas at the bottom of this preseason list.  It's the tight end position, so you have to throw a couple of darts.  I mean, who saw someone like Logan Thomas in the top-12 this year?  Pretty much no one.  Honestly my biggest miss here is not locking Darren Waller into my top-5, but I won't make that mistake next season.  He'll be locked into my top-3, and he could be a Round 3 type of player.  He's clearly a difference maker at a frustrating fantasy position.

That's it for my end of year review.  If you made it this far, that's pretty amazing.  Thanks for reading, and as always feel free to hit me up on Twitter so we can keep the conversation going this offseason.  I'll have my first edition of 2021 rankings out likely next week!

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Week 17 Rankings

I suppose there might be some people out there playing in Week 17, so I'll post my rankings below with three disclaimers:

1. These are very difficult to do this week, especially with so many teams resting players and trying some different things.  FantasyPros doesn't include Week 17 in the accuracy competition because there's just too much variance and most fantasy leagues don't play this week.

2. These rankings will change a TON from now until Sunday as we find out which players will be rested, inactive, etc.  So if you're using these for anything, check back around noon on Sunday for a final update.

3. There's a reason the vast majority of leagues don't include Week 17 in their fantasy playoffs.  I can't imagine having someone like Travis Kelce for an entire season only for him to sit in the most important week for fantasy because his real life team has nothing to play for.  If your league still includes Week 17, talk to your commish and get that changed ASAP.

So with that out of the way, let me just say that if you faced Alvin Kamara in Week 16 like I did in the championship in the main league I care about, I get it.  It stinks.  I put up the second most fantasy points this week of anyone in my league and lost to the guy who almost put up 200 fantasy points (with Kamara having over 1/4 of those points).  Hey, it happens.  I'm sure there are people out there who faced Kamara and still won.  That could happen too.  It's fantasy football and crazy stuff will happen.  I hope you can have some perspective when it comes to fantasy football and just take it as it comes.  You put your best lineup out there and you see what happens.  Sometimes it works out, and sometimes it doesn't.  Hopefully you have fun doing it.  I always do.

But now it's on to next year, right?  FantasyPros already has their 2021 rankings tool up on the site, and I started on those today.  I should have some early rankings out in the next couple of weeks, but for now, here are my Week 17 rankings with none of the usual commentary below it.  I'll just post my betting picks below the rankings.  As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with any start/sit questions that can't be answered by the rankings.  And as we get into the offseason, feel free to shoot me questions about the NFL Draft, free agency, etc.  I'll be getting an article out with a preview on some of that stuff in a month or so.  

And here are my Week 17 betting picks:

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings

I hope if you're reading this, that means you're in your championship this week.  Of course I realize that's not the case for everyone, so if you're playing for third or nothing or whatever...hey, thanks for at least clicking the link and checking my rankings!

Way back in Week 6, I had a great week and finished as the #2 most accurate ranker, and I gained a lot of new Twitter followers because of it.  If you just started following me this year and are using my rankings, welcome!  I've had some ups and downs since then, but I've mostly been pretty consistent.  Right now I'm sitting at the #37 spot among over 150 rankers in the accuracy competition, and I'm pretty sure this is the last week included in that contest.  In case you're curious, here's my accuracy rank by week through Week 15:

120 (slow start...)
2 (!!!)
12 (got in a little mid-season groove)
138 (yikes)

I'm hoping to finish strong both with my rankings accuracy and with my betting picks at the bottom.  As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with any start/sit questions that can't be answered by the rankings and discussion below.

Obvious Start: Last week I said if you were debating between Jalen Hurts versus Kyler Murray, don't.  Kyler was my obvious start, but both guys were awesome in that game.  This week I think both guys are obvious starts, but let me mention Josh Allen here in case you were considering benching him for someone else.  He's been a top-5 fantasy QB in 4 of his last 6 games, and he's been the #2 fantasy QB in two of those contests.  The Monday night matchup at New England shouldn't scare you, especially now that Stephon Gilmore is out for the season.  If Diggs is out, I might lower Allen a spot or two.  But I think Diggs plays, and I'd have Allen as a top-5 play regardless.

Not-So-Obvious Start: The funny thing is, the guy I'm facing in the championship in my main/home/money league has both Josh Allen AND Tom Brady.  I think both guys are great starts this week, and he probably can't go wrong with either.  But I wanted to mention Brady here because he's not as obvious as Allen.  He's been a little up and down this season, but this week against the Lions he has the potential to go OFF.  With Ronald Jones likely still out, Brady just might throw the ball 40+ times again.  And Detroit's defense is just awful right now.  To add insult to injury, the Lions are dealing with COVID issues and might not have a good portion of their coaching staff in this game.  I think the Bucs will put up a ton of points in this game, and Brady should be involved in at least three of those TDs.

The Ceiling is the Roof: I've talked about guys like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton here in recent weeks, and I've been spot on.  You don't want to start someone like Cam this week (duh), but don't consider Big Ben either.  The Steelers are an absolute mess right now, and I have a feeling Ben is dealing with an injury that is impacting his throws.  I don't want to make an excuse for the guy, but I think he's too good to be looking this bad otherwise.  The Colts are coming to town this week, and if Ben struggled against the Bengals, I don't see how he can put up a good game against Indy.

Obvious Start: You might think Miles Sanders might not have a huge game with Jalen Hurts running a bit more and that changing up the gameplan a bit, but I actually think Sanders will have a huge game against Dallas.  This backfield is all his right now, and Dallas could be without Vander Esch in the middle of that defense.  You're starting Sanders if you have him regardless, but that's why he's in the obvious start category now isn't it?

Not-So-Obvious Start: Don't look now, but David Johnson has been an RB2 in each of his last two games.  Against a not-so-good Cincy defense this week, he might break into RB1 territory.  He's not an exciting play and I can't imagine he's on a ton of championship squads, but he's a start for me this week.

The Ceiling is the Roof: Latavius Murray saved his Week 15 stat line with a touchdown, but he hasn't been very involved in this offense lately.  I have him ranked outside of my top-40 RBs this week, so I'd much rather take a chance on someone like Malcolm Brown or Gus Edwards who are just more involved in their team's gameplan right now.

Obvious Start: I doubt many people are benching Allen Robinson against his old team, but you never know after a down Week 15.  Don't bench ARob against the Jags.  He'll get double digit targets and could easily finish as a top-10 fantasy WR in this cake matchup.

Not-So-Obvious Start: I actually think Marquise Brown is quietly back into start territory.  He gets the Giants this week, and their secondary is banged up.  Brown has been a WR2 in 3 of his last 4 games, and he was a WR3 in the 4th game (in which he scored!).  The Ravens should be able to move the ball in this game, and it just takes one big play for Hollywood to finish as a top-20 WR.  I'd plug him into my FLEX this week if I had the space for him.

The Ceiling is the Roof: If you somehow have Tyler Lockett on your squad and made it all the way to the championship, congratulations.  I'm guessing in that scenario, you probably haven't been playing him lately.  He hasn't finished better than WR45 since November 19th.  He finished as the WR32 when the Seahawks played the Rams in Week 10.  I don't have a ton of faith in Russell Wilson this week, and that extends to Lockett.

Obvious Start: I had Logan Thomas as my not-so-obvious start last week, but he's graduating to obvious start territory.  The only wrinkle here is if Taylor Heinicke is the starting QB on Sunday, but if Logan is still getting 10+ targets, he'll be a TE1.  And as of right now, it looks like Haskins will start.

Not-So-Obvious Start: I mentioned Brady as my QB not-so-obvious start, so I'm going to mention Gronk here.  Like I said, I think the Bucs will put up a ton of points in this game, so why not a Gronk spike?

The Ceiling is the Roof: I think there are much better options out there than Jordan Reed.  He's had a couple of touchdowns in the last month, but he hasn't had more than 32 receiving yards in a game since Week 10.  With George Kittle potentially back this week combined with the fact that C.J. Beathard should be under center, I'd go ahead and look for another TE option for Week 16.

And here are my betting picks for Week 16.  I'm trying to finish strong and get in the top-5 in both the O/U and ATS categories by the end of the regular season, so let's see if I can add onto my numbers with these picks!