Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Fantasy Football 2019: Top 12 predictions for each position

Image result for marlon mack coltsI want to be clear about one thing: these are NOT my rankings.  You've seen plenty of iterations of those.  My preseason rankings have risk, injury, RBBC considerations, and a ton of other things built into them.  No, these are my predictions for who could finish the season in the top-12 at each position.  In a best case scenario with fully healthy seasons, my position lists below will provide you some additional insight into who I think has major upside and who might be prone to being a bust in 2019.  I'm still more or less going to stick by my rankings when it comes to doing my fantasy drafts, and I suggest you do the same.  But there's always a lot of turnover in the top-12 at each position when you look at end of season ranks, so I thought it'd be fun to put some predictions out there and see what turns out to be right when the season ends.  I'll also have some bold picks sprinkled in.

Let's get to it!

QBs
Deshaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes
Carson Wentz
Jared Goff 
Kirk Cousins 
Baker Mayfield 
Cam Newton 
Lamar Jackson
Aaron Rodgers 
Kyler Murray  
Matt Ryan 
Dak Prescott

You'll notice right away that while I have Mahomes as my #1 QB in my rankings, I'm not picking him to finish that way at the end of the year in my QB list.  Of course he could (and he might), but no one has repeated as the #1 fantasy QB since Daunte Culpepper in 2004.  Is it likely that Mahomes repeats?  Actually no.  No it's not.

Image result for lamar jackson ravensIt's really hard to narrow this list down to 12 with so many possibilities at the QB position.  Honestly, I could see about 24 different guys in this list, but I had to chop that number in half.  Because of that, I had to leave off certain guys like Russell Wilson and Philip Rivers, even though both guys finish in the top-12 virtually every year.  Oh, and Andrew Luck.  I'm officially scared about his mystery injury.  I also have some sleepers above in bold.  I feel like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray will get so much yardage with their legs, they'll both crack this list if they play 16 games.  You'll also notice I have Kirk Cousins (who no one seems to be talking about this year) in my top-5.  He has great weapons to throw the ball to and was consistently a top-10 guy in Washington.  I don't see why he couldn't crack this list again with a good Viking offense, and with guys like Blake Bortles and Alex Smith finishing as top-5 QBs in recent years, why can't Kirk?

This list just shows how deep the position is though because I really wanted to include guys like Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky, but there's just not room for everyone!

RBs
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey 
Ezekiel Elliott
Marlon Mack 
Saquon Barkley
David Johnson 
Chris Carson
Dalvin Cook
Nick Chubb
David Montgomery
Aaron Jones 
Kerryon Johnson

What's the deal with Gordon and Zeke this year?!?  Everyone was so sure Le'Veon Bell wouldn't hold out all of last season, but of course he did.  Both guys are virtual top-12 locks if they play, but there's real concern that both holdouts will last into the regular season (especially Melvin's, which is why I'm leaving him off my list).  In addition to Melvin Gordon, you won't see names like Todd Gurley or even James Conner in my projected top-12.  I have a feeling both guys will miss a big chunk of games this season, and that can be said for a lot of running backs because it's just a brutal position on your body.

Image result for david montgomery bearsAnd while Marlon Mack as a top-5 RB is bold, I think it's within the realm of possibilities with Indy expected to be such a good offense.  And my thought process around Luck's injury is it could mean more Mack early in the year behind that tough offensive line.  It's also very common for only a couple of top-5 RBs to be in next year's top-5 RBs.  And if I'm picking two to repeat, it's Kamara and McCaffrey.  Zeke also feels like a lock, but the holdout is concerning.  A rookie tends to crack the top-12 every year lately, and I think this year it'll be Montgomery and not Josh Jacobs.

WRs
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Davante Adams 
DeAndre Hopkins 
Amari Cooper 
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Michael Thomas 
Tyreek Hill
Julio Jones
Robert Woods
Jarvis Landry
Stefon Diggs
D.J. Moore

Image result for jarvis landry odell beckhamI'm calling a couple of long shots here.  While a lot of people have Amari Cooper in their top-10, not many will predict him to finish in the top-5.  But the boldest prediction on this list might be Jarvis Landry, especially because everyone seems to be fading him this year.  Can Baker Mayfield support two top-12 WRs?  I think it's possible.  We've seen it happen on other teams: 2018 Steelers (Brown/JuJu), 2016 Packers (Adams/Nelson) & Saints (Thomas/Cooks)…& RAIDERS (Crabtree/Cooper)!  There are more examples, but it's happened 4 times in the last 3 seasons.  With the expectations for this offense, I don't see why it couldn't happen in Cleveland this year.  D.J. Moore is another interesting name on this list, and this very well could be Curtis Samuel instead.  But I'm going to guess that Cam turns the first round draft pick into a star in 2019.

TEs
Travis Kelce 
Evan Engram
Zach Ertz
Vance McDonald
O.J. Howard
Hunter Henry
George Kittle
Austin Hooper
Jack Doyle  
Jordan Reed
Jared Cook 
Rob Gronkowski

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski delivers a body tackle to WWE Superstar Jinder Mahal during a match at WrestleMania 33 on Sunday, April 2, 2017, in Orlando, Fla.Last year I didn't list everyone's favorite "sleeper" tight end George Kittle in this article, and he broke out in a big way.  But this year he's not the only receiving option in San Fran, and I think he could fall outside of the top-5.  I am including Vance McDonald in my top-5, as someone needs to catch all of those vacated targets from Antonio Brown.  I also like Jack Doyle more than Eric Ebron this year, and I think it's bold to have him on this list instead of Ebron.  You may have also noticed Gronk on my list.  Well, last year Antonio Gates was quasi-retired and came back.  I think Gronk could do the same a few weeks into the season.  I just picture him watching games on his couch like "BRO!  I need to get back in there!!!"  And if he does, he's certainly a shell of the old Gronk.  But he could also catch 7 or 8 touchdowns and finish as a top-12 fantasy tight end if he plays 10 games or so.


I'll keep updating my rankings, and I'll post a couple more articles before the season starts. 

Stay tuned...

Cheers,
Bart

Friday, August 2, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Rankings v6

Image result for melvin gordon chargersWell it's August, and I haven't updated my rankings in a couple of weeks.  There hasn't been a ton of movement, but enough to warrant an update.  I'll try to refresh the list on a weekly basis up until the start of the season. With the Hall of Fame game in the books, the real preseason games are right around the corner (next week!).  I'm sure we'll get a couple of key injuries in the next few days, and hopefully we'll get either Zeke or Melvin Gordon reporting to training camp.  Fingers crossed...

Cheers,
Bart



Sunday, July 21, 2019

My Ideal Draft and the Worst Possible Draft

The most common fantasy football drafts are snake format, and 10-12 teams is pretty much the standard size.  I've done quite a few mock drafts on the FantasyPros site with their Draft Simulator, and I thought I'd take a look at what my ideal draft would look like based on these settings.  On the flipside, I'll also give you what I think could end up being the worst draft someone could possibly do, all based on the current ADP from FantasyPros.  I'm not going to assume I can get Saquon Barkley in the 2nd round, and I'm not going to reach for Aaron Rodgers in the 3rd.  This is all based on ADP.  I'm not going to assume the #1 or #12 pick either.  I'll go with somewhere in the middle.  How about pick #4?  OK?  OK.  Let's go!

Here are the 13 positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR, DEF, & 5 Bench Spots

You KNOW I don't do kickers!  If you have kickers in your league, just take whoever in the last round.  But you knew that already...right?

So I have the #4 pick in the draft.  The first three picks (in some order) are Saquon, Zeke, and McCaffrey.  My ideal draft in a 12 team league here at the end of July would look something like this...
Image result for alvin kamara saints
1.04 Alvin Kamara
I get my #1 overall pick at #4, and it's a beautiful start to what could be a perfect draft!

2.08 JuJu Smith-Schuster
Sure, it's not super likely that JuJu falls to late in the second round, but it's certainly possible.  His ADP right now is 18, and this is pick 20.  Since we're talking about 10-12 team leagues, this is very much in the realm of possibility.  I think JuJu will end up leading the league in targets this year, and he could end up as the #1 fantasy WR in 2019.  This is a great value here in the second round.

3.04 Aaron Jones
This is my ideal draft.  If I can somehow get Kamara and JuJu in the first two rounds, I'm going RB in Round 3.  Right now I have Aaron Jones as a top-20 player, so if I can get him at his current Rd 3 ADP, I'm all over it.

4.08 Tyreek Hill
His current ADP is 48, and this is pick 44.  Of course now that he's not expected to get a suspension, his ADP will rise.  But when I started writing this article, I fully expected him to only get a 4 game suspension, and this was my "reach" in Round 4 because I saw so much value in Tyreek.  But if you did this ideal draft early, then Tyreek Hill was a steal in round 4.  And his saga might not be over.  If he gets traded, his ADP may well stay in the 40s.

Image result for tyler lockett seahawks
5.04 Tyler Lockett
This is right at his ADP, but I have him as a 4th round pick. So this feels like a great value to me.  Lockett is the mostly likely receiver to lead the Seahawks in targets, and he has the super efficient Russell Wilson throwing him the pigskin.  Sign me up!


6.08 Hunter Henry
You never know when the tight end run will happen in your fantasy draft, but this is likely the round where you'll be looking at an option like Hunter Henry after O.J. Howard and Evan Engram went off the board in the previous round.  That's just fine with me.  I think Henry could end up as a top-3 TE this year, and I'd be more than happy with him in the 6th round.

7.04 Lamar Miller
This year's super boring pick who can give you RB2 numbers is Lamar Miller.  Deshaun Watson and the Texans are going to score plenty of points, and Miller is in a contract year.  It's very possible Houston runs the hell out of this guy and gets the most out of him before he's gone.  I like him a lot here in Round 7, which is where I expect him to fall in a lot of drafts.

8.08 Latavius Murray
If I luck out and get Kamara with the fourth overall pick, I'm definitely trying to handcuff him with Latavius.  Even if I have to reach for him in the 7th, that's what I'll do.  But this is my ideal draft, so he fell to me in the 8th (right near his ADP).  Even with Kamara healthy, Latavius could be a decent FLEX option.  And if Alvin gets hurt?  Murray becomes an instant top-10 RB option.  I think he's a great value in the middle rounds.

Image result for carson wentz eagles9.04 Carson Wentz
Here we are at pick 100 in a 12-team draft, and it's finally time for a quarterback.  Sure, Wentz might be gone a few picks ahead of this.  If that's the case, I'll take Kyler Murray.  I think both guys could end up in the top-5 QBs this season.  They both have that kind of upside.  This is the round to pull the trigger on one of these signal callers.

10.08 Geronimo Allison
Right now his ADP is 117, and this is pick 116.  It seems crazy to get Aaron Rodgers's #2 receiver this late in the draft, but that's a possibility.

11.04 Curtis Samuel
I'm taking another WR here, and this is a guy I feel like could break out.  Everyone thinks D.J. Moore will be the #1 WR for the Panthers this season, but it could just as easily be Samuel.

12.08 Damien Harris
There are actually a ton of guys I like here in the later rounds.  Dak Prescott is a great value if you haven't drafted a QB yet.  Lamar Jackson and Mitchell Trubisky are also typically available around this point in the draft.  But if I want another RB, I'm looking at Dion Lewis or Damien Harris.  And if Sony Michel's knee isn't fully healthy, Harris definitely has more upside here.

13.04 Broncos Defense
It's time for a defense.  In my ideal draft, the Chargers fall to me here at the end of the draft.  But I don't think that's realistic if I'm waiting til the last round.  But hey, Denver's defense is being drafted as the DST9 and their current ADP is 169.  So yeah, I can definitely get the Broncos here in the 13th round.

Image result for damien harris patriots draft
QB Carson Wentz
RB Alvin Kamara
RB Aaron Jones
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR Tyreek Hill
RB/WR Tyler Lockett or Lamar Miller
TE Hunter Henry
DEF Denver Broncos
Bench Latavius Murray
Bench Geronimo Allison
Bench Curtis Samuel
Bench Damien Harris
Bench [Tyler Lockett or Lamar Miller]



So in my mind, that was the ideal draft if everything goes right and I have the #4 pick in the draft.  But what could be the worst possible draft?  It's hard to say, but here's what I think it could look like.  Let's just stick with the #4 pick and change up who we take in each round, shall we?

1.04 Melvin Gordon
His ADP right now is 5th overall, but that'll probably drop if it looks like he'll holdout.  If he doesn't report to training camp and if his holdout goes into the preseason, his ADP will fall.  But for now, this is shaping up to be a potential Le'Veon Bell situation.  This would obviously be a terrible first round pick if Gordon somehow misses the entire season like Bell did last year.

Image result for mahomes sad2.08 Patrick Mahomes
Someone will absolutely reach in the first couple of rounds for Mahomes.  Don't be that guy.  It's so unlikely that he throws for 50+ TDs again.  Even 40 passing TDs could be a stretch if Tyreek misses a few games.  Now that Tyreek is expected to not miss games, I still don't think he'll be worth a second round pick, especially with so much value at the position in the later rounds.

3.04 Leonard Fournette
With an ADP of 24, Fournette might feel like a value here in the 3rd round.  But with his injury history on a team that could find it difficult to find the endzone, I'd argue that Fournette could struggle to be your RB2.

4.08 Phillip Lindsay
So you're not so sure about your first two RBs, so you take another RB in the fourth round.  But in Phillip Lindsay, I'd argue you could have an undrafted second year guy who could easily be replaced by the higher draft pick in Royce Freeman.  I expect the new coaching staff in Denver to see what they have in Freeman, and beat writers are already expecting there to be more of a 50/50 split this year.  Both RBs could have value, but this could end up being a bit high for Lindsay.

Side Note: Don't pay too much attention to bye weeks, but at this point in the "worst possible draft", you've now selected two guys with Week 10 byes and two guys with Week 12 byes.  Not the best idea with your first 4 picks.

5.04 Cooper Kupp
He was great last year until he tore his ACL.  But we've seen plenty of guys struggle to get back to what they were before a torn ACL.  Don't think that Cooper Kupp will pull an Adrian Peterson and just be ready to go Week 1 and bust out 2000 yards.  I think Kupp could end up missing a few weeks to start the season, get eased into action, and potentially even have fewer fantasy points than Josh Reynolds this year.  I realize that's a hot take, but I think Kupp might be a little overvalued in Round 5 coming off such a serious injury.

6.08 Jarvis Landry
Since you went RB early and used a high draft pick on Patrick Mahomes, you're now forced to go back to back WR to fill out that lineup.  Your best options here in the 6th options are Landry and Alshon.  Yuck.  I don't particularly like either that much, and I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable with them my WR2 this year.  Jarvis didn't have a terrible 2018.  He had nearly had 1000 receiving yards and 4 TDs.  But Odell Beckham, Jr. wasn't on the team last year.  This probably wouldn't be a completely horrible pick in a PPR format, but in a standard league, you're likely looking at a lot of weeks with 35 yards and no scores.

7.04 Darrell Henderson
Image result for todd gurley darrell hendersonThis guy's ADP feels a little out of hand right now.  It's sitting at 80, which is right around Round 7 in a 12 team league.  If more information comes out about Todd Gurley and he doesn't play a snap in camp or preseason, then sure, draft Henderson.  But even then, I'm not sure Round 7 is appropriate.  And for now, I'm assuming Gurley is not done playing football.  I'm also not convinced Henderson is definitely the handcuff to Gurley.  The Rams signed Malcolm Brown to a 2 year deal this offseason, and he just might be the backup.  This feels like a bad pick this early.

8.08 Bears Defense
At this point, you're waiting on tight end.  But you decide to reach and take the best fantasy defense from 2018.  The only problem is, fantasy defenses pretty much never repeat as the #1 fantasy option from year to year.  In fact, they often drop out of the top-5 following a great year like the Bears defense had.  I'm not saying the Bears won't be a top-5 fantasy defense this season, but I am saying they're a terrible pick in the 8th round.

9.04 Kareem Hunt
It's pick 100 in a 12-team draft, and you haven't taken a tight end yet.  But you're going to just wait on the position at this point because the top-10 guys are all gone.  You decide to take Kareem Hunt because his ADP is 96 and for some reason you think he's a good value here.  No, he's not.  He's suspended for 8 games, people!  He should be on your "do not draft" list.  The Browns have a Week 7 bye, which means Hunt won't be able to play until Week 10 (at the earliest!).  That assumes he won't get in some bar fight between now and then and get flat out cut by the Browns.  There's no reason to draft this guy and hold onto him this long during all of those bye weeks.  You'll want to add/drop all kinds of players looking for upside elsewhere.  Don't let Hunt take up a bench spot for at least 9 weeks.

Image result for kareem hunt browns

10.08 Emmanuel Sanders
Speaking of not trusting old guys coming off injuries (OK, Sanders is "only" 32)...but I still don't trust him.  Steve Smith is the only guy I can remember who recovered well at a late age from an Achilles injury, and I'm just not that confident in Sanders to be ready Week 1.  He's not starting training camp on the PUP list, so that's a good sign.  He's posted videos running routes and whatnot.  Whatever.  I won't be drafting him here in Round 10.  He doesn't feel like has much upside with Flacco as his QB and coming off such a serious injury.  Also, you already drafted Phillip Lindsay!  Don't take another Bronco!

11.04 Delanie Walker 
There are actually a ton of guys I like here in the later rounds, so it's tough to find a guy I don't like this late.  But you decided to wait on tight end, so you should probably draft one, right?  But Delanie Walker will be 35 next month, and he's coming off an injury that could cause him to miss Week 1.  You're much better off taking a shot on someone else.  Especially someone who will definitely be ready for the start of the season.

12.08 DeSean Jackson 
Your WRs are terrible, so you decide you should take another one.  Except instead of taking a high upside guy like Curtis Samuel or Keke Coutee, you decide to take DeSean Jackson.  He's back in Philly and ready to run those go routes, right?  I mean, sure, I guess.  He'll have like three good games this year.  And those game will probably be REALLY good.  But will he be in your lineup those weeks?  Probably not.  He will have had 3 terrible weeks right before that big game, so he'll be on your bench.  I'm not drafting DeSean in Round 11, especially if I just took Sanders a couple rounds earlier.

Image result for greg olsen delanie walker13.04 Greg Olsen
You took Delanie Walker and realized he might not be healthy enough to play football this season.  So you decided to take another 34 year old tight end who hasn't had a good season since 2016.  Maybe one of these guys will bounce back this year, but I'm not counting on either.  I'm looking for tight end options elsewhere.

QB Patrick Mahomes
RB Melvin Gordon
RB Leonard Fournette
WR Cooper Kupp
WR Jarvis Landry
RB/WR Phillip Lindsay
TE Delanie Walker
DEF Bears Defense
Bench Darrell Henderson
Bench Kareem Hunt
Bench Emmanuel Sanders
Bench DeSean Jackson
Bench Greg Olsen


It'll be interesting to see if my Ideal or Worst team will actually be better in 2019.  Either way, this was a fun exercise here in late July.  And if you look at my grades on FantasyPros for these drafts, it's an A- versus a D+.  So I feel like it's pretty accurate, at least for now.  I'll keep tabs on these guys and provide a mid to late year update on whether I was right or wrong on these fake drafts.

Cheers,
Bart

2019 Fantasy Football Rankings v5

Image result for tyreek hill chiefsTraining camps are getting underway, and with the Tyreek Hill news (no suspension expected), I thought I'd get another rankings update out there.  I have another article I'm going to post too.  Stay tuned...

Cheers,
Bart


Saturday, July 13, 2019

Someone to draft on all 32 teams. Yes, really.

We're still a month away from a lot of fantasy football drafts, but...wait...we're only a month away from a lot of fantasy football drafts?!?  Woah.  Yeah, it'll be Week 1 before you know it.

Image result for michael gallup cowboysThis isn't my "Catch-All Preseason Article...Spectacular", but it might be a little preview of that.  In fact, I haven't decided yet, but I might break that out into multiple articles like in the olden times.  We'll see.  This is actually a new idea I had, and it will be a a not-so-brief look at all 32 teams through the lens of who I like in fantasy this season.  I wanted to highlight one player from every team who I like the most based on his current ADP (Average Draft Position).  So don't get this twisted and think I would draft Michael Gallup over Ezekiel Elliott.  Elliott should absolutely be a first round pick - maybe even the #1 overall.  Gallup should not be.  But I don't have to tell you to draft Zeke in the first round or Michael Thomas in the 2nd.  You know these guys.  But I am going to tell you to consider Gallup at the end of your drafts, and I'll have 31 other guys to talk about.

I'll be using ADP from FantasyPros as my reference because not only do I really like that website for all things fantasy, but now I'm actually a part of their Expert Consensus Rankings!  That's right.  If you select your experts when looking at rankings, I'm there now!  Pretty exciting, right?  Well, it is for me.  :)

Anyway, I'm not going to talk about every single player.  I'll reference a few of the top guys who are actually being drafted in reasonably sized leagues, and like I said, I'll talk about one guy who I like the most from each team.  I'll put the ADP in parentheses (as of this post - it'll change!) and put each guy I kind of like in bold/italics.  Enough talk. Let's get to it!


AFC East

Buffalo Bills
LeSean McCoy (91)
Josh Allen (159)
Devin Singletary (164)
John Brown (189)
Robert Foster (221)

Let's start this thing off with a team that I hope to not have any players from in any drafts this year to be honest.  The only guy I'm even considering for Buffalo right now at his ADP is Josh Allen.  He nearly finished as a top-20 fantasy QB as a rookie, and that was only playing in 12 games (really 11 considering he didn't start in Week 1).  If you extrapolate his roughly 19 fantasy points per game over 16 games, he would've had nearly another 100 fantasy points last season and finished as a top-12 QB.  It's not always pretty, but he gets it done (especially with his legs).  Only Lamar Jackson had more rushing yards than him last season (among QBs of course).  I'll take that value in the later rounds for sure.  Just don't watch the games.

Miami Dolphins
Kenyan Drake (54)
Kalen Ballage (175)
Devante Parker (192)
Kenny Stills (196)
Albert Wilson (225)

I know George W. Bush said there's an old saying Tennessee: "Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me...you can't get fooled again!"  While I do feel that way with Devante Parker, I also don't feel great about any of his teammates.  Sure, Kenyan Drake could have a fine season but I feel like his ADP is appropriate.  I actually think Parker (and maybe even Albert Wilson) are great last round fliers at their current ADP.  With a new coach and a new quarterback (or quarterbackS potentially), things could come together for the former first round draft pick.  And if they don't?  Drop him after the first month of the season.  No big deal.  With a different coaching staff and potentially Fitzmagic throwing him the ball, Parker could finally realize his potential.

New England Patriots
Sony Michel (39)
Julian Edelman (40)
James White (60)
N'Keal Harry (98)
Tom Brady (116)
Damien Harris (143)

Image result for damien harris patriotsI feel like most of the Patriots have an inflated ADP, but I do like Damien Harris way down at 143.  Sony Michel would be a great pick in the third or fourth round if his knee is fully healthy, but it's a concern.  If he misses time this year, I could see Harris stepping right in and getting carries for this team.  James White will be a huge asset in the passing game, but New England will run the ball too.  Harris feels like the true handcuff to Michel, and his value is great in the 12th round.  The Patriots have made a habit of making a late round fantasy pick into their best RB.  This obviously happened with James White last year, but it was also true with guys like LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis.  Don't let Damien Harris go undrafted in your league.

New York Jets
Le'Veon Bell (8)
Robby Anderson (80)
Chris Herndon (158)
Sam Darnold (183)
Jamison Crowder (219)

Wow.  This division is rough outside of the Patriots.  A lot of people like Robby Anderson to be the best WR of this bunch, and that's certainly likely.  But at his ADP, I think Crowder is the much better value.  He dealt with some injuries in his last season with the Redskins, but in 2016 & 2017 he averaged 818 receiving yards and 5 TDs.  That would have basically been a top-30 WR last year. To get that in basically in the last round of a draft is a steal, and he could end up with the most targets on this team.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Mark Ingram (41)
Ravens Defense (129)
Lamar Jackson (139)
Justice Hill (169)
Marquise Brown (178)
Mark Andrews (185)
Gus Edwards (229)

This is a tough one with it being so early in July.  I wanted to go with Lamar Jackson for basically all of the same reasons I picked Josh Allen earlier, but I'll go with someone different.  Hayden Hurst has shown his inability to get/stay on the football field, and Andrews actually finished as the #16 fantasy tight end as a rookie.  He only had 50 targets in his first year in the league, but with John Brown and Michael Crabtree gone, there are a lot of targets up for grabs.  And if you include the playoff game against the Chargers, he actually averaged 4.5 targets per game in his last four.  If you don't snag one of the top 5 or 6 tight ends, Mark Andrews could be a guy that ends up in the top-12 by the end of the year.

Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon (13)
A.J. Green (33)
Tyler Boyd (68)
Giovani Bernard (193)
Tyler Eifert (227)
Andy Dalton (230)

You thought I was only going to highlight guys in the later rounds, didn't you?  Well, people have forgotten that A.J. Green has been a top-10 WR basically every year he's healthy.  Will he stay healthy?  I mean, I don't know.  But if he does, he should absolutely be drafted before the third round.  I think he's the best value on the Bengals, as I'm not buying Gio, Eifert, or Dalton.

Cleveland Browns
Odell Beckham, Jr. (16)
Nick Chubb (21)
Jarvis Landry (66)
Baker Mayfield (67)
David Njoku (88)
Kareem Hunt (96)
Browns Defense (147)
Duke Johnson (166)
Antonio Callaway (243)

First of all, let me say how ridiculous it is that Kareem Hunt is being drafted in the top-100.  This guy is suspended for 8 games, and the Browns have a Week 7 bye.  Hunt won't even be eligible to play until Week 10.  Do you think you're going to keep him on your fantasy team that long with all of those bye weeks?  I don't care how deep your bench is.  I don't see it happening.  I struggled with the best value here because I feel like most of these players have pretty accurate ADPs.  I like OBJ and Nick Chubb as top-10 guys at their position, and Baker has great breakout potential.  But if I had to pick based on value versus ADP, I'd actually take Duke Johnson (who I have about 35 spots higher than his current ADP).  I had him about 60 spots higher than his ADP when I started writing this article a couple of weeks ago, so maybe I'm onto something here.  There's all of this talk in the offseason about him wanting to be traded and whatnot, and maybe that happens.  But for now, he's a Brown.  He'll be a complementary back to Chubb at least for the first 9 weeks of the season.  He has a ton of talent, and even if he does somehow get traded before or during the season, that might actually be a good thing.  Duke Johnson could be a decent FLEX play in what is expected to be a much improved offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner (10)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (17)
Vance McDonald (86)
Jaylen Samuels (114)
Ben Roethlisberger (115)
James Washington (122)
Donte Moncrief (161)

Here's another team with pretty accurate ADPs.  If anything they're inflated because the Steelers are such a popular team.  That makes it hard to find value.  I almost went with James Washington, who I currently have as a top-100 player.  But it's hard to say right now who might have more value between him and Moncrief.  But one thing I do know is that JuJu has a legitimate shot to lead the league in targets this year.  He had 166 targets last year, and Antonio Brown and his 168 targets are now in Oakland.  JuJu finished as a top-10 WR last year as the #2 receiver in that offense.  I don't see why he won't finish as a top-5 fantasy WR this season.  He's being drafted in the second round but should absolutely be considered in the first.

AFC South

Houston Texans

DeAndre Hopkins (7)
Deshaun Watson (49)
Lamar Miller (70)
Will Fuller (82)
D'Onta Foreman (121)
Keke Coutee (137)
Texans Defense (146)

Image result for keke coutee texansDeshaun Watson is the easy answer here because I think he's absolutely worthy of a high draft pick.  After I get a couple of RBs and WRs on my team, I'd take him at the start of the 5th round.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if he finishes as the #1 QB in fantasy this year.  That being said, his ADP is right where I currently have him ranked.  As for Keke Coutee, I actually have him inside my top-100 and ranked ahead of teammate Will Fuller.  Mike Clay of ESPN tweeted an interesting stat that Coutee played in 5 "full" games last season, and he had 50 targets to DeAndre's 47 in those games.  If Fuller is healthy to start the season, that definitely throw's a slight wrench into this.  But I just think Coutee might get more targets, catches, yards, etc. (than Fuller, not Hopkins).  Because of that, I think he's the much better value a few rounds later.

Indianapolis Colts
T.Y. Hilton (25)
Marlon Mack (32)
Andrew Luck (46)
Eric Ebron (72)
Devin Funchess (123)
Parris Campbell (150)
Nyheim Hines (160)
Jack Doyle (209)

This is going to sound a lot like what I said about Keke Coutee with the Texans.  Like Coutee, Doyle was only healthy for 5 games last season. During those games, Eric Ebron's snap count was below 50% in all of them.  Doyle's snap count was above 75% in all of those games, and he actually saw nearly twice as many targets as Ebron (and more red zone targets).  Give me all of the Jack Doyle this year (and probably none of Ebron at that high price tag).

Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette (24)
Dede Westbrook (106)
Jags Defense (124)
Nick Foles (208)
Ryquell Armstead (218)
Marqise Lee (234)
D.J. Chark (291)

Not much to see here with Jacksonville, but if I was forced to draft someone other than Fournette in this offense, I'd definitely rather take a shot on Marqise Lee in the last round versus Dede in the 9th or 10th.  Of course Lee is coming off a torn ACL, so if he isn't healthy to start the season, Dede's value might be decent there and D.J. Chark could even have value (especially since he's basically free as late as he's being drafted).  For now I'll assume Marqise Lee is a starter in Week 1, and I'd at least consider him late in drafts if that's the case.

Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry (31)
Corey Davis (93)
Delanie Walker (127)
Dion Lewis (138)
Adam Humphries (214)
Marcus Mariota (215)
A.J. Brown (223)

I was tempted to go with A.J. Brown here, as he just might be the most talented WR in this rookie class.  But I'm not crazy about Tennessee as his landing spot, and his usage is still very TBD.  I guess everyone's usage is a bit TBD with a new coaching staff, which is why I'm high on Dion Lewis.  This is a guy who was a top-12 RB in New England in 2017.  People were excited to draft him last season, but he didn't produce.  I'm thinking maybe he'll be a little more involved this season, and I have him in my top-100.  I wouldn't feel great about him in my FLEX spot to start the season, but he's definitely the kind of guy I'd want in my first bench spot.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Phillip Lindsay (42)
Royce Freeman (94)
Courtland Sutton (103)
Emmanuel Sanders (112)
Noah Fant (167)
Broncos Defense (173)
DaeSean Hamilton (200)

I probably won't end up with any Broncos on my fantasy teams this year.  I don't excpect Sanders to be fully healthy coming off a torn Achilles, and he'll likely be on my "do not draft list".  I'm not sure how much I trust the other receivers with Flacco under center either.  If anything, I think the Broncos could be good at running the football and controlling the clock.  Their defense was a top-5 fantasy unit last season, and I have them ranked that way again this year.  Their ADP is DST9, so I think they're potentially a decent value based on where they're going in drafts.  They have a new coaching staff, but I see that as a good thing.  Vic Fangio came over from Chicago (who had the top fantasy defense last season), and he brought along his defensive backs coach to be the DC.  Kareem Jackson was a nice offseason acquisition, and this defense could easily be top-5 again.

Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce (15)
Damien Williams (22)
Patrick Mahomes (23)
Tyreek Hill (52)
Sammy Watkins (63)
Carlos Hyde (111)
Mecole Hardman (113)

Image result for tyreek hill chiefsSo, the obvious pick here is Tyreek Hill.  As long as he's not suspended for 8+ games, I'm definitely drafting him before the 5th round.  This guy was the #1 WR in fantasy last year and a top-5 WR the year before that.  With Mahomes slinging the ball, there's no reason to think Tyreek won't be the best receiver in fantasy when he's actually on the field.  But his status is very much up in the air right now, so his ADP obviously has that risk built in.  If he's suspended for 4-6 games, he's still worthy of a 2nd or 3rd round pick.  You can draft a RB and a WR in the first two rounds and then take a shot at the best WR in fantasy football after that.  You're not going to be able to wait around until Round 5 to get Tyreek unless we know for a fact that he's out for a very long time this season.  If you're drafting early, I say take the risk.  You can always find a WR who can be serviceable for you for the first month of the season.

Oakland Raiders
Antonio Brown (20)
Josh Jacobs (37)
Tyrell Williams (154)
Derek Carr (174)
Jalen Richard (217)

We've seen a rookie finish as a top-5 fantasy RB each of the last four seasons: Todd Gurley (2015), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt (2017), & Saquon Barkley (2018).  I realize Josh Jacobs isn't anywhere near a sure thing to finish as a top-5 fantasy RB, but he should have every opportunity to do it in Oakland's offense.  He's probably being drafted right around where his ADP should be, but he certainly has the potential to return much better value than the 3rd/4th round.

Los Angeles Chargers
Melvin Gordon (5)
Keenan Allen (27)
Mike Williams (59)
Hunter Henry (62)
Philip Rivers (111)
Austin Ekeler (119)
Chargers Defense (131)

Image result for hunter henry chargersI like a lot of these guys, but I also think they're being appropriately drafted.  I actually really like the Charger defense this year, as I have them right behind the Bears as my #2 unit.  But I'd rather talk about a post-hype sleeper in Hunter Henry here.  Not only did the Chargers lose Tyrell Williams to free agency, but Antonio Gates has finally retired too (or so they tell me).  Hunter Henry has legitimate double digit touchdown potential, and I expect him to finish as a top-5 TE.  I realize the 6th round feels a bit high for him, but I'd say he has better value than George Kittle at his current price.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott (2)
Amari Cooper (34)
Dak Prescott (132)
Michael Gallup (165)
Cowboys Defense (179)
Randall Cobb (202)
Jason Witten (231)

While Amari Cooper has said he wants to eclipse the 2,000 yard receiving mark in a season, I'd say that's highly unlikely.  The Cowboys like to run the ball, and Dak Prescott hasn't thrown for 4,000+ yards in any of his three NFL seasons.  If Dak has around 3800-4000 passing yards and Cooper has a career year, that likely means 1200-1500 receiving yards for Amari.  Let's assume Zeke has about 500 receiving yards, which would still leave ~2000 yards for the rest of the RBs/WRs/TEs.  I like Gallup to get a sizable chunk of that, and that's why I have him about 75 spots higher than the current ADP.  In fact, when I started writing this article he was outside of the top-200 in ADP.  Again, this makes me feel like I'm onto something, but we'll see.  While he only had 33 catches for 507 yards and 2 scores as a rookie, Gallup should have more opportunity in his sophomore season.  Cole Beasley is now in Buffalo, and you could say Cobb will fill that role.  But Cobb has had a hard time staying on the field, and Allen Hurns will be returning from a nasty leg injury that ended his season last year.  Gallup is someone who had 2,685 receiving yards and 21 receiving TDs in just two seasons at Colorado State.  Don't wait til Year 3 for his breakout because I think it could come this season!

New York Giants
Saquon Barkley (1)
Evan Engram (58)
Sterling Shepard (92)
Golden Tate (108)
Eli Manning (237)

Outside of Saquon, I'm lower than all of these guys versus their ADP and I'm really struggling as to which WR to draft between Shepard and Tate.  If I had to pick a value here, I guess I do like Evan Engram a bit this year.  With OBJ off to the Browns, there are plenty of targets to fill and they won't all go to Golden Tate.  Engram was a top-5 fantasy TE as a rookie, and much of that was due to OBJ being out due to injury.  Last year he fell back to earth and finished as the TE13, in part due to some of his own injury issues.  If Engram can stay on the field, he has the same top-5 upside he had in his rookie year.  Like Hunter Henry, he's a tight end I'm targeting in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.

Philadelphia Eagles
Zach Ertz (28)
Alshon Jeffery (74)
Miles Sanders (75)
Jordan Howard (83)
Carson Wentz (95)
DeSean Jackson (130)
Dallas Goedert (184)
Eagles Defense (186)
Nelson Agholor (233)

Image result for carson wentz eaglesWhen you don't have a RB or WR until Alshon at #74, you know there's a ton of value with the Eagles based on ADP.  I struggled with who to pick here because I like Nelson Agholor about 100 spots higher than his current ADP, but I think Carson Wentz will be an MVP candidate.  I'm likely going to wait on QB because I like to pick RBs and WRs with my first few picks, but I might reach for Wentz after I get 5 or 6 position players.  He was on pace to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB in 2017 before tearing up his knee against the Rams in Week 14, and he still finished as a top-5 fantasy QB even though he only played in 13 games.  He was understandably not a top fantasy QB last year coming off that serious injury, but now I think his ADP has fallen too far due to his various injuries.  That's just fine with me.  I'm assuming full health now that he's a year and a half removed from the torn ACL, and you could get one of the top fantasy QBs way later than I think he should be drafted.

Washington Redskins
Derrius Guice (64)
Adrian Peterson (117)
Jordan Reed (162)
Chris Thompson (213)
Dwayne Haskins (220)

It feels strange to not have any WRs listed here, but that's where we are with the Redskins in 2019.  If you want to draft someone who has the potential to catch a lot of balls in this offense, why not Jordan Reed?  Of course "injuries" is the answer to that somewhat rhetorical question, but it's not much of a risk with his ADP now nearly outside the top-20 fantasy TEs.  When healthy, there aren't many tight ends in the league who have more upside than Jordan Reed.  He's been a top-10 fantasy TE as recent as 2016 (in just 12 games), and he was the #3 fantasy TE the year before that (in 14 games).  We all know the injury risk, but his value in fantasy drafts is actually great this year.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

David Montgomery (51)
Tarik Cohen (61)
Allen Robinson (79)
Bears Defense (90)
Trey Burton (134)
Mitch Trubisky (144)
Anthony Miller (157)
Mike Davis (170)

I want to get a piece of this offense, but the question is "what piece?".   Allen Robinson was a top-5 fantasy WR in 2015, but he hasn't done a whole lot since then.  Anthony Miller might be a good value that late at #157, but I'm not 100% sure that's where I want to invest my stock in Chicago.  If I had to choose, I'd actually take Trubisky.  Everyone seems to expect Baker Mayfield to breakout and easily finish in the top-10 this year, but people are sleeping on Trubisky.  Both of these guys played 14 games last season, and Trubisky actually had more fantasy points!  He was a top-15 fantasy QB in his second year in the league, and he has great weapons to finish in the top-10 himself in Year 3.  Right now he's being drafted as the QB19, so I think you're getting good value at that price.

Detroit Lions
Kerryon Johnson (38)
Kenny Golladay (45)
Marvin Jones (97)
T.J. Hockenson (140)
Matthew Stafford (171)
C.J. Anderson (176)

Image result for marvin jones lionsThis is an easy one for me, as I have Marvin Jones 30 spots higher than his ADP and I'd much rather have him at his ADP than Golladay at his.  Marvin Jones was a top-5 fantasy WR in 2017, and he was on pace for a good season last year before a knee injury in Week 10 cut his season short.  He had at least 54 yards or a TD in every game last season but one (Week 7 in Miami).  He provided good consistency when healthy, and he had double-digit standard scoring performances in a third of his games.  He has great value at pick 97, and I'd likely take him earlier in my drafts.

Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams (9)
Aaron Jones (30)
Aaron Rodgers (55)
Geronimo Allison (118)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (128)
Jimmy Graham (149)
Jamaal Williams (168)

Geronimo Allison basically only played in the month of September (4 games) last year due to various injuries, so his 303 yards and 2 TDs doesn't look like much without that context.  If you extrapolate those stats to a full season though?  We're talking about 1200 yards and 8 TDs!  OK.  I'm not saying Allison is going to do that this season, but I'm not NOT saying that.  Randall Cobb is gone, and Davante Adams is basically the only proven wideout in Green Bay's offense.  There's plenty of opportunity for Allison to become the #2 WR for Aaron Rodgers, and that's a good thing.  Rodgers can support two high end fantasy WRs, and I'm thinking he might do that this year.  I'll definitely own Allison if he falls to the double-digit rounds.

Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook (19)
Adam Thielen (26)
Stefon Diggs (36)
Vikings Defense (141)
Kyle Rudolph (142)
Kirk Cousins (148)
Alexander Mattison (180)

Image result for kirk cousins vikingsKirk Cousins finished as the QB13 last year, and he's being drafted like the QB20 in 2019.  Did you realize last season was his worst finish as a starting QB in fantasy?  Of course it was also his first season on a new team, but here were his finishes as Washington's starting QB: 8th (2015), 5th (2016), & 6th (2017).  Do we really think Cousins will finish worse than 13th this year?  It seems more likely he'll sneak back into the top-10, right?  Yeah, I'm definitely waiting on QB this year...

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones (11)
Devonta Freeman (29)
Calvin Ridley (57)
Matt Ryan (71)
Austin Hooper (119)
Ito Smith (133)
Mohamed Sanu (212)

Here's another team where I feel like the players are ranked appropriately for the most part, but I do have Ito Smith ranked about 20 spots higher than his current ADP.  Tevin Coleman is gone, and Ito is the clear #2 RB in this offense.  Not only should he get 10-12 touches per game, but he would be a legitimate RB1 candidate if Freeman were to miss time (which tends to, you know, happen).  Like I said, all of these guys are ranked about where they should be, so this was a tough one to pick.  I doubt I'll have Ito Smith in many leagues, but he feels like he has similar upside to a guy like Dion Lewis.

Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey (3)
D.J. Moore (65)
Cam Newton (89)
Image result for curtis samuel panthersCurtis Samuel (126)
Greg Olsen (155)

D.J. Moore is the likely pick for a breakout WR in this offense, but Curtis Samuel is not as far behind as his ADP would suggest.  Based on Matt Harmon's Reception Perception analytics, it might actually be Samuel who is primed for a breakout.  I feel like both are a bit of a roll of the dice, so the value to be had is certainly 60 picks later in a fantasy draft.

New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara (4)
Michael Thomas (12)
Jared Cook (73)
Drew Brees (77)
Latavius Murray (84)
Tre'Quan Smith (177)

I haven't done this yet, so I'll go ahead and say there's value in Alvin Kamara at ADP #4.  I guess it's nitpicking, but I have him as my #2 overall player, and I think he's highly likely to finish #1.  If #4 is his average, that means he's falling to #6/7/8 in drafts, and that shouldn't happen.  With Mark Ingram gone, Latavius Murray will certainly have a role in this offense.  But Kamara could have a very special Year 3 for New Orleans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans (18)
Chris Godwin (50)
O.J. Howard (56)
Ronald Jones (101)
Peyton Barber (107)
Jameis Winston (125)

This is a tough call in July because it's almost certain that either Jones or Barber will have value here, but it's hard to tell which one.  I'm going to bet on the high draft pick with fresh legs.  Bruce Arians has a track record of turning young guys into productive RBs, and I think he could do it with Ronald Jones.  He didn't draft him, but I think he'll play him.  We'll see what happens, but one of these guys is definitely a value outside of the top-100.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

David Johnson (6)
Christian Kirk (87)
Larry Fitzgerald (101)
Kyler Murray (102)
Andy Isabella (199)
Chase Edmonds (250)
Hakeem Butler (280)

Image result for kyler murray cardinalsI don't see Kirk or Fitz as big values where they are, especially considering the Cardinals drafted Isabella and Butler.  But I don't see how Kyler Murray should be outside of the top-100 players in fantasy football this year, and I might need to move him up my rankings.  He's currently going at the QB12, but if he runs like people think he can in the NFL, he could be the next Michael Vick.  That's not hyperbole.  He has legit top-5 upside in his rookie year with Kliff Kingbury as his head coach.  It could be a match made in heaven.

Los Angeles Rams
Todd Gurley (14)
Brandin Cooks (43)
Robert Woods (44)
Cooper Kupp (48)
Darrell Henderson (81)
Jared Goff (99)
Rams Defense (106)

Well this is a tricky one, isn't it?  I'd be fine getting any of those 3 WRs in the fourth round, and I think all are good picks at that ADP (appropriately valued).  I'm not sure what to think about this whole Todd Gurley knee injury situation, but I'm having a hard time buying Darrell Henderson in the top-100 if Gurley is going to be an RB1.  If anything, I think there could be value in getting Gurley in the second round of drafts.  He was the #1 RB in fantasy the last two years, and he was a top-5 RB as a rookie.  He had a rough 2016, but otherwise he has been the best RB in fantasy his entire NFL career.  Maybe his knee is messed up.  Maybe he'll never be the same RB.  I don't know.  But if he's mostly healthy this year, you're getting a top-5 fantasy RB in the second round.

San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle (35)
Tevin Coleman (69)
Dante Pettis (85)
Jerick McKinnon (104)
Matt Breida (151)
Jimmy Garoppolo (152)
Marquise Goodwin (181)
Deebo Samuel (190)

I don't know how this backfield is going to shake out, but I definitely want some shares of Dante Pettis if he's nearly falling out of the top-100.  The problem is, his ADP is going in the other direction.  It was close to 100 when I started writing this article, and now it's 85.  Ugh.  Everyone chill!  I want to draft this guy!!  Why am I excited about a guy who wasn't a top-50 WR last year?  Well, he was a rookie, he had scrub QBs throwing him the ball most of the season, and he only played in 12 games.  He still managed almost 500 yards and found the endzone 5 times.  With Garoppolo throwing it to him all season, Pettis could end up with 1000 yards and 8 TDs.  I like him as a solid FLEX play and well worthy of a 6th or 7th round pick.

Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson (47)
Tyler Lockett (54)
Russell Wilson (76)
Rashaad Penny (78)
D.K. Metcalf (109)
David Moore (253)

Image result for tyler lockett david mooreWhile I certainly like David Moore as a deep sleeper, I have Tyler Lockett as a 3rd round pick.  So an ADP of 54 is tasty.  I'll definitely be drafting Lockett in leagues this year if his ADP stays down there.  With Doug Baldwin gone, Lockett is in a great position to be the man in Seattle.  They definitely like to run the ball, but Russell is a playermaker...and so is Lockett.  I like for him to potentially finish as a top-12 fantasy WR this season.  And if you miss out on Lockett, then scoop up David Moore in the last round.  He actually could end up with the most targets of any Seahawk receiver this season.  That's crazy to get that outside of the top-250 with Russell F'ing Wilson throwing him the football!!

Cheers,
Bart