Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Week 16 Rankings

We'll get em next year, Peyton!
It was a tough week for the Pig Newtons.  Not only did Peyton Manning put up mediocre fantasy numbers on Thursday, but most of my other guys underperformed on Sunday as well.  Reggie Bush had a nice game against Baltimore, but Shady and Vereen didn't produce like they had been (could have used those points from Week 14, fellas!).  Coby Fleener hit me with a big goose egg too, which was rather unexpected.  I ended up losing my matchup by about 20, so at least I wasn't playing the game of "who I should have started".  It didn't matter.  Now I'm playing for 3rd place, which would get me my money back.  But man, I really wanted that $1000.  Maybe next year.  Just remember, folks: most fantasy points throughout the season means nothing.  Just like in real football, your team has to be playing well at the right time, which is down the stretch.

Anyway, let's talk about this week, shall we?  When I got to thinking about it, I realized this might be my last post of the 2013 season, but we'll see.  I also realized this is the first time all season I've waited to get my rankings out after ESPN, but just know that this is by design this week.  With no Thursday night game, I thought I'd just try to pack everything into this one post.  I'll give you my normal position rankings, I'll recap some of my picks from last week, but I'll also go ahead and give a couple guys who I'm high/low on for the week versus the ESPN rankings.  I'll talk about a few injuries in order to explain my rankings, but you're going to have to keep your eyes and ears open as the weekend approaches.

OK.  Let's do the rankings!
1.Peyton Manning
2.Nick Foles
3.Philip Rivers
4.Drew Brees
5.Jay Cutler 
6.Cam Newton 
7.Matthew Stafford
8.Tony Romo
9.Russell Wilson
10.Andy Dalton
11.Colin Kaepernick
12.Ben Roethlisberger
13.Tom Brady
14.Kirk Cousins
15.Andrew Luck
16.Alex Smith
17.Ryan Tannehill
18.Ryan Fitzpatrick
19.Jason Campbell
20.Joe Flacco

Still no sign of Aaron Rodgers, but Matt Flynn was able to lead the Packers in a comeback victory against Dallas.  Oh, how I love watching Tony Romo throw picks!  You won't see Rodgers on my list this week because as of right now, his status is still up in the air.  If he's back in there against the Steelers, I'd put him easily in my top-10 (probably around 6th or 7th).  Also, if Rodgers is the QB, I'd bump up his WRs 5-10 spots each.  Anyway, the QB I was high on last week, Alex Smith (ESPN #13, ME #11) actually finished as the #1 fantasy QB.  Yes, a lot of that was Jamaal Charles catching and running them in, but whatever.  Points are points.  And while I was down on Kirk Cousins (ESPN #19, ME not ranked), I did rank guys like Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick ahead of him in my Friday update.  Cousins still put up top-10 fantasy numbers against Atlanta, but those other guys did finish just ahead of him.  It was a good week for streaming QBs, as Nick Foles was really the only top-10 ranked QB who finished in the top-10.  You picked a great week to be missing in action, top fantasy QBs!

As for this week, I can't take Peyton Manning out of the top spot, but I am moving Brees down a bit.  I realize it could be the championship game for you, and Drew just put up 35 fantasy points on the Panthers less than two weeks ago.  But this game is in Carolina, and he's been much better at home than on the road this year.  It's a call you'll have to make for yourself, but I do have a couple guys in between Manning and Brees in Week 16.  As for my rankings as they compare to ESPN's, our top and bottom are about the same, but it's the guys in the 5-15 range that differ quite a bit.  Let's take a look at a couple of those big names...

I'm high on: Tony Romo (ESPN #8, ME #12) 
I couldn't resist the onion article this week ("pretty rough")
We all know that Romo's wins and losses tend to follow somewhat of a bell curve as the season goes on, with Decembers typically being pretty rough.  But that doesn't necessarily translate to poor fantasy production in the last month of the regular season.  And while he hasn't been a top-10 fantasy QB as of late, you couldn't ask for a much better matchup than the Redskins.  I realize as much as anyone that this is a division rivalry game, but I think Romo will be playing with a big chip on his shoulder after last week's embarrassing home loss.  This is more of a gut call than anything, but I think Romo will bounce back and throw for over 300 yards and a couple TDs against Washington.

I'm down on: Tom Brady (ESPN #10, ME #13) 
Hey, an even bigger name here!  Let's go out with a bang.  Why not?  I'm not way down on Brady this week, but I don't have him in my top-10.  I know he's been on a bit of a roll lately, but losing Gronk does hurt.  Not to mention, Brady's last 5 games against the Ravens haven't been great (just 5 TDs and 9 INTs).  While this is a different Baltimore defense than in year's past, they're coming into their own.  In fact, they've given up the 9th-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and they haven't allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 6.  I look for both teams to try to establish the run in this one, and I think Brady will have numbers that land him outside of the top-10.

1.LeSean McCoy
2.Jamaal Charles
3.DeMarco Murray
4.Eddie Lacy
5.Matt Forte
6.Zac Stacy
7.Adrian Peterson
8.Marshawn Lynch
9.Knowshon Moreno
10.Le'Veon Bell
11.Ryan Mathews
12.Alfred Morris
13.Rashad Jennings
14.Frank Gore
15.Chris Johnson
16.Reggie Bush
17.Giovani Bernard 
18.Bobby Rainey
19.Jordan Todman
20.Shane Vereen
21.Andre Brown
22.Fred Jackson  
23.Ben Tate
24.Ray Rice
25.CJ Spiller
26.Steven Jackson
27.DeAngelo Williams 
28.Chris Ivory
29.Montee Ball
30.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
31.Pierre Thomas
32.Lamar Miller
33.Danny Woodhead
34.Rashard Mendenhall 
35.Daniel Thomas 
36.Joique Bell 
37.Andre Ellington 
38.Trent Richardson
39.Darren Sproles
40.Donald Brown

Unless you're living under a rock, you know that Jamaal Charles went for over 50 fantasy points in most leagues in Week 15.  If you played against him, you probably know it all too well.  The #2 fantasy RB was Matt Asiata, who got the start with both Peterson and Gerhart inactive for Minnesota.  He didn't put up a ton of yards, but the bruiser found the endzone 3 times against the Eagles.  Peterson is expected back this week, so he's back in my top-10.  I found myself playing against Zac Stacy and Rashad Jennings last week, who were both top-10 fantasy RBs.  In fact, I was high on Rashad Jennings (ESPN #24, ME #14), and I was both right and sad at the same time.  I was also pretty high on Steven Jackson (ESPN #19, ME #13), who finished inside the top-12 himself.   However, I was down on Chris Johnson (ESPN #22, ME #31), but he was able to put up nearly 100 total yards and a TD against a tough Arizona defense.  If he can put up those numbers on the Cardinals, you have to be confident in him to run on Jacksonville.  He's moving way back up my board this week.

Hey Ron, how are Ben Tate's ribs...?
Speaking of this week, I'm putting LeSean McCoy at my top spot.  It's tough to push Charles to the #2 position after the week he had, but Shady gets the Bears at home.  The matchup is just too good.  I also have Le'Veon Bell in my top-10, and Ryan Mathews is close.  Mathews has looked like a pro-bowler ever since I traded him for Ray Rice after Week 9.  Funny how that happens.  Oh well.  Even Mathews wouldn't have put me over the top in Week 15.  MJD doesn't make the list, and I'm assuming Jordan Todman will get the start for the second week in a row for Jacksonville.  Also, if you're a Ben Tate owner, you'll want to keep an eye on him this week.  Apparently he re-injured his ribs, and if he can't go then Dennis Johnson could get the start against Denver.

I'm high on: Montee Ball (ESPN #35, ME #29) 
Speaking of Denver, why is everyone all of a sudden off the Montee bandwagon?  The dude has been playing really well lately, and he plays in the most high-powered offense in the league.  He has one bad game and people are staying away from him.  Well I'm not.  Denver couldn't get their running game going against San Diego last Thursday night, but I don't think they'll have as much trouble when they face the Texans this week.  I think we could see double-digit fantasy points from Ball again in Week 16.  

I'm down on: Danny Woodhead (ESPN #27, ME #33) 
Seriously? That guy is in the NFL...?
This little guy has been hit or miss lately, and it's mostly been "miss".  He does have a nice matchup against Oakland, but the Chargers have been giving the ball to Mathews a lot more lately.  Maybe Woodhead will break off a screen pass and score, but that's tough to count on with him in recent weeks.  He's put up double-digit fantasy points twice in his last 5 games, but those other 3 games have all been 4 points or less.  I have a hard time putting a guy like that in my top-30.  
1.Calvin Johnson
2.Josh Gordon
3.AJ Green
4.Dez Bryant 
5.Brandon Marshall 
6.Antonio Brown
7.Alshon Jeffery
8.DeMaryius Thomas
9.DeSean Jackson
10.Julian Edelman 
11.Keenan Allen
12.Andre Johnson 
13.Pierre Garcon
14.Eric Decker 
15.Vincent Jackson
16.Mike Wallace
17.Jordy Nelson  
18.Michael Crabtree
19.Torrey Smith
20.Kendall Wright
21.Marques Colston
22.Larry Fitzgerald
23.Dwayne Bowe 
24.Brian Hartline
25.Anquan Boldin
26.Riley Cooper
27.Rod Streater 
28.TY Hilton 
29.Greg Jennings 
30.Danny Amendola
31.Roddy White
32.Doug Baldwin
33.Harry Douglas
34.James Jones  
35.Marvin Jones 
36.Hakeem Nicks
37.Cordarrelle Patterson
38.Steve Smith
39.Emmanuel Sanders 
40.Stevie Johnson

I was splitting hairs with my WR picks in Week 15, but I was high on Da'Rick Rogers (ESPN #46, ME #38) and down on Brandon Marshall (ESPN #7, #14).  Well I was 0 for 2 here, as Marshall was a top-10 WR and Rogers had a horrible follow-up to his stellar debut.  Then again, who knows who's getting the passes in Indy when Fleener gets NONE.  Yeah, I'm still a little bitter about that one.  DeSean Jackson was the top receiver in Week 15, but the guys I'm looking at in the top-10 are Julian Edelman and Antonio Brown.  These guys have been so consistent as of late (no matter what the matchup), and I have both pretty high on my board this week.  One guy who is not on my WR list as of right now is Wes Welker.  I'm not sure if he'll be back for Denver's game in Houston this Sunday.  If he is, I think I'd rank him in the mid-20s but I wouldn't alter my ranking of the other Bronco wideouts.  It would just mean you're not even considering a guy like Andre Caldwell as a high-upside flyer.  Players who are just outside of my top-40 include names like Michael Floyd and Golden Tate.  These guys have been decent in recent week, but they have pretty tough matchups.

I'm high on: Brian Hartline (ESPN #30, ME #24) 
Most weeks it takes right around 10 fantasy points to land inside the top-25 WRs, and when I look at the guys in the low 20s and high 30s, no one stands out to me from a consistency standpoint more than Brian Hartline.  Last week he had 7 fantasy points, and that was his lowest output in his last 4 games.  Ryan Tannehill has been coming on strong late in the season, and Miami is playing for something.  This week, they travel to Buffalo to face a secondary that's giving up the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs this season.  I don't know if Hartline will find the endzone, but I think one way or another he'll get to that 10 fantasy point mark.

I'm down on: Roddy White (ESPN #26, ME #31) 
Speaking of some of those other guys in the low 20s and high 30s, I'm not feeling Roddy against the 49ers.  I thought he would do much better at home against the Redskins last week, but he only caught 5 balls for 53 yards.  In the game before that he was held to 74 yards at Green Bay.  White hasn't scored since Week 11, and I don't like his chances in San Fran in Week 16.

1.Jimmy Graham
2.Vernon Davis
3.Julius Thomas 
4.Jason Witten
5.Jordan Cameron 
6.Delanie Walker 
7.Greg Olsen
8.Tony Gonzalez
9.Dennis Pitta
10.Charles Clay 
11.Zach Miller
12.Marcedes Lewis
Marcedes is getting no love from ESPN
My tight end list is pretty much the same as ESPN's until you get to #11, but I'll get to that.  First I'd like to point out that last week Delanie Walker returned from his concussion to play against Arizona, who continues to give up a TON of fantasy points to tight ends this season.  Walker found the endzone and finished with double-digit fantasy points.  Who faces Arizona this week?  That would be the Seahawks.  Do you feel lucky with Zach Miller?  He's a feast-or-famine type of fantasy TE, but this could be the week to roll the dice with him.  Another guy to keep an eye on is Tyler Eifert.  Jermaine Gresham left the game against the Steelers with a hip injury, and if he's out this week, Eifert should be the main TE in a nice home matchup against the Vikings.  If Gresham gets ruled out, I'd probably put Eifert at 12th and Marcedes Lewis just outside of my top-12.  I am a little surprised that none of the ESPN experts ranked Lewis higher than 17th though, and 2 of them didn't even rank him in their top-25!  Wake up, guys.  He has touchdowns in each of his last 3 games, and the Titans have given up the 11th-most fantasy points to TEs this season.  What's that?  You're just going to continue to rank Antonio Gates in your top-10?  OK then.  Suit yourself...


Last week I was high on the Jacksonville Jaguars (ESPN #26, ME #8), and they finished as the #13 defense.  You don't see them in my top-12 this week, but I've expanded my list to 13...more on that in just a second.  On the flipside last week, I was down on good defenses with bad matchups.  I was down on the Bucs (ESPN #10, ME not ranked) & Rams (ESPN #12, ME not ranked).  While Tampa had a horrible day against the surging 49ers, St. Louis actually finished as a top-10 defense against Drew Brees and company.  That was shocking to me, and I'm moving them all the way up to #3 this week in another home matchup (this time against Tampa Bay).  Most of the other top fantasy defenses were in the top-10 in Week 15 (Seattle, Carolina, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Arizona).  The only one of those I don't trust this week is Arizona, who travels to face the Seahawks.  I'll probably be going back to the Bengals this week as I try to get that 3rd place money, and I'm hoping they will play inspired at home against Minnesota, considering they still control their own playoff destiny.

I'm high on: Jacksonville Jaguars...again! (ESPN #27, ME #13) 
At what point do you stop ranking teams like the Patriots and the Giants well ahead of the Jags?  Well, I started doing it a week ago (which was a week too late).  But I'm keeping it rolling with Jacksonville again in Week 16.  Based on my league's scoring, over the last 4 weeks the Jags have only averaged fewer fantasy points than 5 other defenses: Seattle, Arizona, Tampa, San Fran, and Carolina.  Not bad company to be in.  I get it.  They're the Jacksonville Jaguars.  But adapt or die, ESPN!  

I'm down on: Denver (ESPN #10, ME not ranked) 
I'm also down on the Cardinals, which I already alluded to.  But they're a good defense who could probably find a way to get some fantasy points (even in Seattle).  Meanwhile, the Broncos have a really good matchup against the Texans, but they just haven't been that good on the defensive side of the ball this year.  They've also failed to get double-digit fantasy points in each of their last 3 games.  And in their last 4 games, they're giving up nearly 30 points per contest.  I realize it's an understatement to say that Houston has been struggling this entire season, but they're still professionals and they'll suit up and try to beat Denver on Sunday.  That won't happen, but I also don't think the Broncos will keep them anywhere under 20 points either, and I can't get excited about starting a defense that has 4 sacks in their last 3 games.  

Good luck to everyone in Week 16!  And if I don't do a Week 17 Rankings (I probably will), then I'll see you when I see you.


Friday, December 13, 2013

Week 15 Rankings: Friday Update

Well, my Week 15 fantasy playoff matchup kicked off last night, and it wasn't all disappointment.  Let's get right into that game, then I'll talk about all of the injured players out there...and then the updated rankings.

QBs: I had Peyton Manning at #1 of course and Philip Rivers up at #9, but neither were top-10 fantasy QBs in last night's game.  It was especially frustrating as a Manning owner because of all the time the Chargers milked, and the Bronco defense didn't help with some stupid penalties.  Manning added a couple of points down the stretch as he tried to get the Broncos back into the game, but they couldn't come back and beat San Diego.  The silver lining for me is that whether I'm playing for 1st or 3rd next week, Manning will still be playing for playoff seeding.

It could have been much worse for me than it was last night.
RBs: Denver's running game could never get going, and their RBs got more points catching passes than on the ground.  Both only got around 5 fantasy points each, and my opponent started Montee Ball, so I can't be too disappointed in Manning's output.  Danny Woodhead also managed just a handful of fantasy points, but Ryan Mathews continued to put up solid numbers.  He finished with well over 100 yards and a rushing TD.

WRs: This is where most of the tears came for Bronco owners.  I ranked both Demaryius and Decker in my top-10, but they didn't even combine to get double-digit fantasy points.  It was Andre Caldwell who hauled in both of Peyton's TD passes, helping around 0.001% of fantasy owners I'm guessing.  Meanwhile, Keenan Allen continues to be the main target in San Diego's passing game.  He accounted for 2 TDs himself, and he'll be a WR1 again next week against the Raiders.

TEs: Not much to say for Julius Thomas, though he did have 8 targets, which he converted into 4 catches for 49 yards.  And ESPN continues to rank Gates in the top-10, and I really don't understand why.  He had 23 yards receiving, and he'll continue to stay out of MY top-12 in the weeks to come.

I didn't rank either defense, and neither cracked double-digit fantasy points.  Let's talk about the injured guys...

1. Aaron Rodgers: He's been ruled out for a great matchup against Dallas, and I might be benching Jordy this week because of it.  Nelson hasn't scored a TD this year without Rodgers, and I feel like he makes a risky start.  Decisions, decisions...

Sorry, McCown owners.  Cutler's back...
2. Jay Cutler: Meanwhile, Cutler has been cleared and will be the starter once again for the Bears.  I actually think he'll be a little rusty and have him ranked slightly lower than I would've ranked McCown.

3. Minnesota's backfield.  Adrian Peterson AND Toby Gerhart are both questionable for their matchup with Philly on Sunday.  I don't know who to rank or where for this one.  It has sounded all week that Gerhart is more likely to play, so I'll list him in my rankings.  But keep an eye on this one if you're planning to start either.

4. Reggie Bush: My man was back at practice today, and I'm hopeful he'll give it a go on Monday Night Football.  I'll probably roll the dice with him at my Flex and sit Jordy.  Backup-backup plan will be Ray Rice if Reggie can't go.  Yeesh!

5. MJD: He's now listed as doubtful for this Sunday, and Jordan Todman should get the start against the Bills.

Ogbonnaya could be a decent Flex option this week.
6. RBs with concussions: Rashad Jennings suffered a concussion on Thanksgiving day, and he didn't play in Week 14 against the Jets.  He's passed all of his tests and should be back this week.  Also, Darren McFadden hasn't been practicing, which only boosts the value of Jennings.  However, products of "The U" Lamar Miller & Willis McGahee both got their bells rung last week.  McGahee has already been ruled out for Sunday, so Chris Ogbonnaya should get a healthy workload against a Bears defense that has been horrible against the run all year (and especially of late).  I've moved him up considerably in my rankings.  Lamar Miller has been practicing this week, but he makes for a risky start in the middle of the fantasy playoffs.

7. A couple of tight ends: There was a report this week that Jordan Reed would be shut down for the rest of the year, but the Redskins have been denying it.  He's officially questionable for Sunday's game, but I wouldn't count on him.  Meanwhile Delanie Walker was back at practice this week, and you couldn't ask for a better matchup for a TE than Arizona.

That's it for the injury roundup.  Let's do the rankings!
1.Drew Brees
2.Cam Newton
3.Nick Foles 
4.Matthew Stafford
5.Russell Wilson
6.Tony Romo 
7.Andrew Luck
8.Alex Smith
9.Tom Brady
10.Ben Roethlisberger
11.Matt Ryan
12.Jay Cutler
13.Colin Kaepernick
14.Joe Flacco
15.Ryan Tannehill
16.Andy Dalton
17.Jason Campbell
18.Matt Flynn
19.Matt Cassel 
20.Ryan Fitzpatrick

My top-5 or so was exactly the same as the average of the 4 ESPN expert rankings when I compared the lists on Wednesday, and even after that it's still pretty much the same.  This is going to be tough this week, but let's split some hairs.

I'm high on: Alex Smith (ESPN #13, ME #11) 
I'm telling you, my rankings are really similar to ESPN's this week.  But if you look at the ranking of Alex Smith by the experts, if it wasn't for Christopher Harris ranking him 9th, Smith would be closer to 15th or 16th.  But I'm with you, Chris!  Alex Smith has been the 6th-best fantasy QB over the last 4 weeks, and Oakland is giving up the 6th-most fantasy points to QBs this season.  Sound like a match made in heaven to me.  Smith didn't fare well against the Raiders in Week 6, but that was also right in the middle of a 3-game pass-touchdown-less streak for the Chief QB.  He's been playing much better lately, and he's had at least 2 passing TDs in each of his last 4 games.  I like for him to do much better this time around against Oakland in what should be a big win for Kansas City.

I'm down on: Kirk Cousins (ESPN #19, ME not ranked on Wednesday) 
This is an interesting one.  I got my rankings out Wednesday morning when the story was just breaking that RGIII might get benched in favor of Cousins on Sunday.  That had me not ranking either this week, but ESPN chose to include Cousins in their top-20.  Why?  Well, I'm guessing it's based mostly on Atlanta's poor defense...and maybe a little on Cousins wanting to prove himself.  I can't speak for ESPN, but for me, I wouldn't consider starting Cousins this week if I'm in the fantasy playoffs.  He hasn't looked good in the limited snaps he's gotten this year, and his results varied last year when he got opportunities.  He actually played against the Falcons in October of last year when RGIII got knocked out of the game with a concussion.  He completed 5 of his 9 pass attempts for 111 yards.  One attempt was a TD and two were INTs.  He did look better later in 2012 to get a big win in Cleveland, but his track record is a little too erratic to have me ranking him ahead of QBs even as far off the radar as Matt Flynn or former Redskin, Jason Campbell.  Now that Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers are off the list, I'm even adding guys like Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick ahead of Cousins.

1.Jamaal Charles
2.LeSean McCoy
3.Matt Forte
4.Marshawn Lynch
5.DeMarco Murray
6.Eddie Lacy
7.Zac Stacy
8.Shane Vereen
9.Alfred Morris
10.Andre Brown
11.Steven Jackson
12.Ben Tate 
13.Rashad Jennings
14.Le'Veon Bell
15.Frank Gore
16.Reggie Bush
17.Giovani Bernard
18.Pierre Thomas
19.Bobby Rainey
20.Fred Jackson
21.Toby Gerhart
22.CJ Spiller 
23.Chris Ogbonnaya
24.Ray Rice
25.Jordan Todman
26.Donald Brown
27.Chris Johnson
28.Daniel Thomas 
29.Andre Ellington
30.Chris Ivory
31.Lamar Miller
32.Rashard Mendenhall 
33.Joique Bell 
34.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
35.Stevan Ridley
36.DeAngelo Williams
37.Darren Sproles
38.Fozzy Whittaker
39.Marcel Reece
40.Mike Tolbert

DMC shouldn't be in uniform on Sunday. Big day for RJ.
I'm high on: Rashad Jennings (ESPN #24, ME #14)
I'm also high on Steven Jackson (ESPN #19, ME #13), who has been a top-20 fantasy RB in his last 4 games and who faces my Redskins this week.  Jackson now has 3 TDs in his last 3 games, and he's a near-guarantee to find paydirt on Sunday.  As for Jennings, he's been a top-5 RB in his last few games.  He missed last week's tough matchup with the Jets, but his concussion symptoms appear to be gone and he should have a full workload this week at home against Kansas City.  At first glance, the Chiefs appear to be somewhat of a middle-of-the-road rushing defense.  But upon closer examination, they're actually giving up the 6th-most rushing yards per attempt (4.5).  If the Raiders can keep this game close, I like Jennings to have a big day with McFadden on the sidelines.  I hope I'm wrong because I'm playing against him this week, but I guess we'll see.

I'm down on: Chris Johnson (ESPN #22, ME #31)
I've moved CJOK up my rankings a bit since Wednesday with some of the injury updates with other guys, but I'm still pretty low on him.  He's facing an Arizona defense who is giving up the fewest fantasy points to running backs this year, and I'm riding that for a second week in a row (recall I was down on Zac Stacy against them last week...and was right).  Not to mention, it was Shonn Greene who had a pair of rushing TDs for the Titans last week, which worries me a little as well.  I'd be looking at other options if I'm a Chris Johnson owner.

1.Calvin Johnson
2.Josh Gordon
3.Alshon Jeffery
4.Andre Johnson  
5.AJ Green
6.Dez Bryant
7.Antonio Brown
8.DeSean Jackson
9.Torrey Smith
10.Larry Fitzgerald
11.Vincent Jackson
12.Brandon Marshall 
13.Roddy White
14.Pierre Garcon
15.Riley Cooper
16.Julian Edelman 
17.Jordy Nelson
18.Marques Colston 
19.Cecil Shorts
20.Dwayne Bowe 
21.Anquan Boldin
22.Harry Douglas
23.Victor Cruz 
24.Mike Wallace
25.Michael Floyd
26.Steve Smith 
27.TY Hilton 
28.Brian Hartline
29.Rod Streater
30.Golden Tate
31.Michael Crabtree
32.Cordarrelle Patterson
33.Stevie Johnson
34.Kendall Wright
35.Da'Rick Rogers    
36.James Jones
37.Emmanuel Sanders
38.Danny Amendola
39.Ace Sanders
40.Doug Baldwin

Splitting hairs again because my rankings are so similar, but here are a couple of guys I have nearly 10 spots different from the experts...

I'm high on: Da'Rick Rogers (ESPN #46, ME #38) 
You all should know by now that I love the hot hand.  It didn't work out last week with Doug Baldwin, but it has worked out many other week's prior to that.  This week, I'm rolling with rookie Da'Rick Rogers (yes, that's how he spells his name...I looked it up).  Rogers had a huge NFL debut last week in Cincinnati, going for over 100 yards and 2 TDs.  I doubt he'll follow that up with better numbers, but I don't see why Andrew Luck wouldn't continue to throw him the ball.  And after the top-30 or so WRs, I don't see anything wrong with ranking a guy like Rogers with high upside.

I'm down on: Brandon Marshall (ESPN #7, #14) 
I almost stayed away from this one now that Cutler is back, but I'm sticking with it.  I'm going back to the well that is the Iron Haden.  I'm assuming Marshall will get matched up with Joe Haden on Sunday, but I guess it could be Jeffery.  But if Marshall gets that matchup, I think he gets relatively shut down.  Maybe Cutler will look his way a little more than McCown, but I also think he'll have some rust on that arm (and groin.....ew).

1.Jimmy Graham
2.Vernon Davis
3.Jordan Cameron
4.Tony Gonzalez
5.Greg Olsen
6.Jason Witten 
7.Delanie Walker
8.Charles Clay
9.Coby Fleener
10.Dennis Pitta 
11.Garrett Graham
12.Heath Miller
I don't have much further to discuss with the tight ends, so let's get right to the defenses.


I'm high on: Jaguars (ESPN #26, ME #8) 
I actually bumped the Eagles up to #7 in this update, so the Jags are now down to #9.  But that's still a far cry from 26th!  One guy from the 4-letter had the balls to rank Jacksonville's D near the top-12, and once again, it was Christopher Harris (he ranked them 13th).  I mentioned last week after the Thursday night game that I was considering ranking the Jags against Houston.  Well maybe I should have then, but I am now.  Jacksonville was brutal earlier this season, but they've been playing much better as of late.  Now they get a home game against Buffalo, who just surrendered the most defensive fantasy points last week in Tampa Bay.  EJ Manuel has struggled on the road this year, and I think the Jags will force some turnovers in this one.

I'm down on: Bucs (ESPN #10, ME not ranked) & Rams (ESPN #12, ME not ranked).
I mentioned this on Wednesday, but I still feel like ESPN is too safe with their defensive rankings.  Yes, Tampa Bay and St. Louis have been top-10 defenses this year, but did you look at the matchups?  They're both home games, but Tampa gets the 49ers and the Rams are hosting the Saints!  No thanks.  If I were to pick one of these teams to be decent this week, it'd be the Bucs.  But there's no WAY the Rams put up double-digit fantasy points with Drew Brees coming to town.

That's it for Week 15.  Good luck to everyone who's still playing for something!
(Again, except for you, Mac...sorry about that.)