If you're in a 12 team league like me, this week you're right back to facing your opponent from Week 1. That got me thinking back to when I still had so much hope for a good fantasy season in 2016, and it also had me peeking back at my Week 1 rankings. I thought I'd throw a few tidbits at you from those initial rankings that I found interesting...
1. Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and Dak Prescott were ranked in the 15-20 range. All are now top-5 fantasy QBs on the SEASON.
2. Adrian Peterson was the #1 ranked running back. It feels like he hasn't played a snap in 10 years.
3. Todd Gurley was the #2 ranked running back. Remember when he was supposed to be the MAN this year...?
4. DeMarco Murray barely cracked my top-20. He's now the #2 RB in fantasy through 11 weeks, sandwiched between David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott.
5. Jay Ajayi didn't even make my 45-man RB list in Week 1. He's now in the top-10 RBs for the season (and top-5 in his last 6 games). Arian Foster was the Dolphin RB to own at the beginning of the season...HA!
6. I feel like for the most part, it paid to draft a WR highly. The top 4 WRs in fantasy right now are: Julio, Antonio, A.J. Green, and Mike Evans. All of those guys were 1st rounders, and all were in my top-10 in Week 1. Of course now it looks like Green may be out a while, but still. It's Week 12, and those are your top-4 guys. You're happy if you drafted one of them.
7. Jamison Crowder and Davante Adams were both absent from my top-45 ranked WRs in Week 1. Both are now top-15 fantasy WRs on the SEASON.
8. If you wanted Gronk, you had to use a 1st round pick to get him. After 11 weeks, Martellus Bennett actually has more fantasy points (Gronk has missed 5 games due to various injuries, maybe 6 depending on his status this week).
9. The top-10 defenses ranked in Week 1 versus Week 11 are surprisingly very similar. Yet I don't think many people had the Ravens or Eagles pegged for top-5 fantasy defenses this year (they are though).
10. I don't rank kickers because, like...WHY? But I'll just make a point here that there's NO reason to draft a kicker before the last round of your fantasy draft. NONE. With all of the heavy bye weeks these days, even the best fantasy kickers get waived at some point. I currently own Gostkowski (basically the best fantasy kicker of all time), who I picked up off the waiver wire. And I had to waive Justin Tucker to pick him up (I had picked Tucker off the waiver wire a couple weeks prior). Likely only 1 of the current top-5 fantasy kickers were drafted in your league
(maybe 2)
. I've been trying to get rid of the position in my league for years, and I'll continue to make the case for it. Gosh, I hate kickers...
I'm not sure why the NFL decided to have two weeks each with 6 teams on a bye this year. Now here we are in Week 12 and there are NO teams on a bye. Then next week, the Browns and Titans have the last bye week of the season. What the hell, NFL?
So no byes this week. Neat.
Let's do the rankings, shall we?
QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Tom Brady
3.Drew Brees
4.Marcus Mariota
5.Dak Prescott
6.Russell Wilson
7.Ben Roethlisberger
8.Derek Carr
9.Matt Ryan
10.Kirk Cousins
11.Eli Manning
12.Cam Newton
13.Colin Kaepernick
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14.Tyrod Taylor
15.Philip Rivers
16.Carson Palmer
17.Matthew Stafford
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18.Jameis Winston
19.Carson Wentz
20.Joe Flacco
21.Blake Bortles
22.Ryan Tannehill
23.Andy Dalton
24.Sam Bradford
25.Ryan Fitzpatrick
My picks versus the experts in Week 11 were Dak Prescott ( ESPN #13, ME #7) and Alex Smith (ESPN #18, ME NOT RANKED). Dak had scored multiple times in every game since Week 2, and he'd been a top-5 fantasy QB in his previous 4 games. I said "I could see Prescott having another game with 3 passing touchdowns, and he could end up being a top-5 fantasy QB yet again." Guess what? That's exactly what happened. This is a guy ESPN has taken a long time to finally rank near the top-5. The numbers don't lie, boys!
As for Alex Smith last week, he was averaging just over 11 fantasy points/game and was without Jeremy Maclin. So obviously you don't rank him, right? Well, he actually threw for a TD and ran for another on his way to a top-10 finish. I mean, whatever. No one was starting Alex Smith last week, and no one should be starting him this week. If he's a top-10 fantasy QB again, it'll be on the waiver wire.
 Although not my official picks versus the ESPN experts, last week I continued to be high on Marcus Mariota and down on Cam Newton. Mariota was a top-5 fantasy QB, and Cam was outside of the top-20. This week, I continue to be high on Mariota ( ESPN #11, ME #4) and down on Cam ( ESPN #6, ME #12). Maybe the experts have never heard the definition of insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. At some point, you need to consider Mariota as a top-5 option and Cam as someone who has barely been a top-20 fantasy QB in his last 4 games. Those will be my picks versus ESPN yet again this week, and I'll keep it simple and keep em rolling in Week 13 if I must! |
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RBs |
1.Ezekiel Elliott
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2.David Johnson
3.Le'Veon Bell
4.Jay Ajayi
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5.Todd Gurley
6.Melvin Gordon
7.DeMarco Murray
8.Thomas Rawls
9.Lamar Miller
10.Frank Gore
11.Spencer Ware
12.LeSean McCoy
13.Matt Forte
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14.Rashad Jennings
15.LeGarrette Blount
16.Rob Kelley
17.Carlos Hyde
18.Doug Martin
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19.Jonathan Stewart
20.Devontae Booker
21.Latavius Murray
22.Devonta Freeman
23.Jeremy Hill
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24.Theo Riddick
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25.Jordan Howard
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26.Mark Ingram
27.Wendell Smallwood
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28.Terrance West
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29.Chris Ivory
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30.Isaiah Crowell
31.James Starks
32.Tim Hightower
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33.Jerick McKinnon
34.Tevin Coleman
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35.Kenneth Dixon
36.Bilal Powell
37.Matt Asiata
38.James White
39.Mike Gillislee
40.Kenjon Barner
41.Paul Perkins
42.Duke Johnson
43.Dion Lewis
44.Dwayne Washington
45.Chris Thompson
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Last week I was really high on Dwayne Washington versus the experts ( ESPN #47, ME #31). Before Detroit's bye week, Washington had come back from injury to a pretty even split in carries with Theo Riddick against the Vikings. Now he got to face the Jags, who had given up the 4th most rushing yards/game this season and also 9 rushing TDs. But somehow, Jacksonville was able to stop Detroit's entire rushing attack on Sunday. Washington actually led the Lions RBs with 13 rushing attempts, but he only managed 6 yards, and Eric Ebron vultured a touchdown from Washington. That score could've redeemed his day, but it wasn't to be against the lowly Jags.
I went against the grain and was down on Duke Johnson (ESPN #29, ME #38), who was facing a Steeler defense giving up a lot of fantasy points to running backs this season. Johnson ended up with 56 total yards from scrimmage and was the 39th fantasy RB (right below where I ranked him). As for this week, keep an eye on a couple of injuries out there. LeSean McCoy is expected to play, even though he had thumb surgery earlier this week. If he doesn't go, Mike Gillislee makes for a nice spot start against Jacksonville. Also worth keeping tabs on is the Eagle RB situation. Ryan Mathews looks like he'll be out with a knee injury, and Sproles could be unlikely to suit up with a broken rib. I didn't rank either, and I have Wendell Smallwood in my top-30. Kenjon Barner is also in my top-40, but he'd drop out if Sproles plays.
I'm high on: Todd Gurley (ESPN #14, ME #5)
If you own Gurley, I'm sure you're starting him against the Saints. But I wanted to mention him here because while the ESPN experts have finally moved him down their rankings based on his performance (or lack thereof), I actually like him a LOT this week. New Orleans is pretty average as far as the yardage they give up to opposing RBs, but they've given up the second most rushing TDs this season (13). I have a feeling Gurley finally breaks the 100 yard mark and could wind up in the endzone a couple of times on Sunday.
 I'm down on: Devonta Freeman (ESPN #12, ME #22)
Freeman is facing the Cardinals this week, and they're giving up the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season. He also hasn't scored a touchdown since October, and Tevin Coleman should be back in the mix. I think Devonta will get some decent yardage in this one, but I don't see him as an RB1 like the ESPN guys do. |
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WRs
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1.Antonio Brown
2.Odell Beckham, Jr.
3.Julio Jones
4.Amari Cooper
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5.Dez Bryant
6.Mike Evans
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7.Jordy Nelson
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8.Doug Baldwin
9.Brandin Cooks
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10.Larry Fitzgerald
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11.Allen Robinson
12.Rishard Matthews
13.Demaryius Thomas
14.Tyrell Williams
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15.Jordan Matthews
16.Julian Edelman
17.Davante Adams
18.Michael Crabtree
19.Jamison Crowder
20.Terrelle Pryor, Sr.
21.Brandon Marshall
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22.Steve Smith, Sr.
23.Kelvin Benjamin
24.Michael Thomas
25.T.Y. Hilton
26.DeAndre Hopkins
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27.DeVante Parker
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28.Mike Wallace
29.Sterling Shephard
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30.Randall Cobb
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31.Golden Tate
34.Willie Snead
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36.Cole Beasley
37.Adam Thielen
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38.Donte Moncrief
39.Pierre Garcon
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40.Michael Floyd
41.Tyler Boyd
42.Marqise Lee
43.Kenny Britt
44.Brandon LaFell
45.DeSean Jackson
46.Tyreek Hill
47.Marvin Jones
48.Quincy Enunwa
49.Tajae Sharpe
50.Corey Coleman
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I was one for two with my WR picks last week, as I was high on Eli Rogers ( ESPN #43, ME #29) and down on Jordan Matthews (ESPN #23, ME #33). Big Ben did virtually nothing in the passing game against Cleveland, as it was the Le'Veon Bell show on Sunday. Unfortunately for my fantasy team, I was facing Bell (and Tom Brady, who torched the 49ers). I didn't stand a chance. As for Eli Rogers, he has basically become Big Ben's #3 option after Brown and Bell. But in this game, he just didn't get the volume to be productive. He did get the most targets and catches after Brown and Bell though, so I'll continue to rank him pretty highly this week (and likely beyond).
As for Jordan Matthews, I pointed out how he was dealing with a lot in Week 11: back spasms, a struggling rookie QB, the Legion of Boom, and a case of the Jordan Matthews (drops, that is). I said if you were looking for a WR who would get you 68 yards and zero touchdowns, Jordan was your guy. So I was off by 9 yards (he ended up with 59). Not a bad prediction, eh? Matthews ended up as the #40 fantasy WR in Week 11. This week, he's WAY back up into my top-15 as he faces Green Bay's secondary that continues to get lit up on a weekly basis.
I'm high on: Tyrell Williams (ESPN #29, ME #14)
I knew when I traded this guy away at the deadline that he was going to finish strong, but I needed to shake up my team a bit and make a move. Turns out it didn't work out the way I wanted, but that's how it goes. As for Tyrell, let's take a look at his last 6 games, where he's been a top-20 fantasy WR. If you take away those two games against Denver, he's averaging nearly 16 fantasy points/game in that stretch and is easily a top-10 fantasy wideout. Granted, Houston is a tough matchup too. But I still like him to get double digit targets and double digit fantasy points. And if you look at his schedule after this week, it's a cake walk. I expect this guy to be in my top-10 or 15 the rest of the way.
I'm down on: Emmanuel Sanders (ESPN #19, ME #33) |
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This is a guy who falls into that Jarvis Landry category. Landry is another player I continue to be WAY down on versus the ESPN experts, but I don't feel like talking about him every week. Sanders is a good player, but like Landry, hasn't scored double digit fantasy points since the leaves were still on the trees. The targets are there, but Siemian hasn't found Sanders for a TD since Week 4. Emmanuel is outside of the top-60 fantasy WRs in his last 4 games, and I can't believe I even have him ranked as highly as I do after typing that.
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TEs
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1.Jordan Reed
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2.Jimmy Graham
3.Greg Olsen
4.Delanie Walker
5.Kyle Rudolph
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6.Eric Ebron
7.Tyler Eifert
8.Martellus Bennett
9.Travis Kelce
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10.Zach Ertz
11.Antonio Gates
12.C.J. Fiedorowicz
13.Jason Witten
14.Vance McDonald
15.Cameron Brate
16.Gary Barnidge
17.Jared Cook
18.Coby Fleener
19.Will Tye
20.Lance Kendricks
Last week I was high on Cameron Brate ( ESPN #18, ME #11), even with the tough matchup. He had scored in 3 straight games, and the options after the top-10 were razor thin. But Brate let me down, as he only caught 2 of 3 targets for a measly 18 yards. He'll be tough to trust again in a tough matchup with the Seahawks this week. I was right about Dennis Pitta though (ESPN #12, ME NOT RANKED), who has consistently averaged less than 4 fantasy points/game this year. He ended up with just 30 yards in this game, and he continues to be irrelevant as a fantasy tight end.
 I'm high on: Vance McDonald ( ESPN #22, ME #14)
This was my super deep sleeper in the preseason, a guy no one was drafting. It's now Week 12, and I'm sure he's still available in your league. Vance had a relatively slow start to 2016, but he has 6 targets in each of his last 4 games and has turned that into about 8 fantasy points/game during that span. He scored in two of those games, and I think he has a good chance of hitting paydirt in Miami this week. The Niners are a bad team that finds themselves playing from behind a lot. McDonald should continue to get the looks, and he could even be a decent fantasy TE for your team as we get closer to the fantasy playoffs.
I'm down on: Dennis Pitta (ESPN #16, ME NOT RANKED)
I won't re-hash everything I wrote last week, but the guy has one good game this year (and that was Week 2!). I know Flacco throws him the ball a few times a game, but this guy is straight up fool's gold.
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DEF
1.Giants
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2.Broncos
3.Bills
4.Seahawks
5.Ravens
6.Patriots
7.Titans
8.Chiefs
9.Steelers
10.Lions
11.Cardinals
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12.Dolphins
13.Vikings
14.Saints
15.Texans
I nailed one of my defense picks and totally whiffed on the other in Week 11. I was high on the Detroit Lions (ESPN #13, ME #5), who were coming off a bye and facing the Jags. I wasn't excited to be right on this one, as my opponent picked them up and played them against me. But he could've beaten me without starting a defense, so it's all good. The Lions had a defensive TD and a special teams TD in this game and were the #2 fantasy defense after the Steelers (who faced the Browns).
Tied for the second best defensive unit in Week 11 was the Minnesota Vikings (ESPN #4, ME #12), who I was down on versus the ESPN experts. To be fair, they had looked like a different team since their bye. But on Sunday, they made some plays against Arizona. They also had a defensive TD and a special teams TD, so some of that big scoring came from the scoring (as with Detroit).
I'm high on: Detroit Lions (ESPN #21, ME #10)
I'll roll with these guys for a second week in a row. Why not? ESPN is giving them NO love!
Did you know that Detroit has won their last 3 games on Thanksgiving...by a LOT?!?
Here are the results...
2013: 40-10 over Green Bay
2014: 34-17 over Chicago
2015: 45-14 over Philly
Just don't go back any further than that because the Lions lost 9 in a row on Thanksgiving before 2013...yikes! This defense has been a top-5 fantasy squad in their last 4 games though, and Minnesota's offensive line continues to struggle. I like for Detroit to hold their opponent to 20 points or less for the 5th week in a row, get 3 or 4 sacks, and force a turnover or two.
I'm down on: San Diego Chargers (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED)
:format(webp)/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51652969/usa-today-9644804.0.jpg) Unless you're counting on a defensive touchdown, I don't see how you rank the Charger defense at all. They give up the 5th most (actual) points per game to opposing offenses on the year and have the 5th fewest sacks in the league. They do force turnovers, so maybe you'll get lucky there. But Houston has been perfect at home this year (5-0), and I don't see them losing this game after that heartbreaking loss to Oakland in Mexico City. My opponent this week picked up the Chargers, and it looks like he'll start them against me this week, so I hope I'm right with this pick!
So usually I'm done at this point with the rankings. But after losing 5 in a row, my fantasy season is pretty much over at this point. So I thought I'd add one more thing to the end of my rankings. This might be the only week I'll do it, or maybe I'll do it for the rest of the season. Who knows?
I thought I'd take the point spreads for all of the games and pick the winners. We'll see how I do, and next week I'll post the results in my Week 13 rankings. Since I use ESPN for my position comparisons for fantasy rankings, I'll use ESPN for the betting lines as well. My picks are in parentheses...
MIN @ DET (DET -2.5)
WAS @ DAL (WAS +7)
PIT @ INDY (PIT -7.5)
TEN @ CHI (TEN -4.5)
JAC @ BUF (JAC +8)
CIN @ BAL (CIN +4)
ARI @ ATL (ATL -4)
NYG @ CLE (CLE +7)
LA @ NO (LA + 7.5)
SF @ MIA (MIA -7.5)
SD @ HOU (HOU -1)
SEA @ TB (TB +6.5)
CAR @ OAK (OAK -3)
NE @ NYJ (NE -7.5)
KC @ DEN (KC +3)
GB @ PHI (GB +4)
Good luck to everyone in Week 12!
(Except you, Billy...)
Cheers,
Bart
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My fantasy team won by a crazy-slim margin last week: 107.47-107.23. In fact, it's such a small margin that I'm still a little nervous that the tiniest of stat corrections could turn that into a loss tomorrow, but I'll just have to wait and see if that happens. For now, I jumped back up into 9th place and join four other teams in my league at 5-7. It's the last week of the fantasy regular season in my league, and there are still two playoff spots up for grabs. We might actually have two teams make the playoffs that don't have winning records! That's good news for me, since I still have a small chance to get that 6th spot if I have a HUGE week and a couple of 5-7 guys lose. But more than likely, I'll finish 8th or somewhere thereabouts and will have to live vicariously through my wife's fantasy team. (She got the 4th spot in her league, and her playoffs actually start this week.)
