Saturday, May 6, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Rankings v2

Back in January, I gave you my "way too early" rankings.  Then after free agency kicked into high gear, I did another update.  Since then, we've seen Adrian Peterson go to New Orleans and Marshawn Lynch signed with the Raiders.  We've also had the NFL draft, so it seemed like a great time to version up the big board.  The draft included a pretty wild first round.  Three teams traded up for QBs, one of which was Chicago for Trubisky (which no one really expected).  The experts got Fournette to Jacksonville right in their mock drafts, and McCaffrey to Carolina was also a popular choice (which also happened).  As for the WRs, they went a bit earlier than expected, and Corey Davis was the only one who landed in a seemingly nice spot for fantasy purposes.  A lot of mock drafts had Green Bay taking a running back in the first or second round, but I wasn't believing that hype. 

Here's what I said in April:
Maybe this is the year Ted Thompson pulls the trigger in Round 1, but I wouldn't hold my breath.  If I were a betting man (and I am), I'd say Green Bay helps their secondary in the first round of this draft.  That being said, if a prime Eddie Lacy replacement like D'Onta Foreman falls into their lap at the end of Round 2, I'll adjust my next rankings accordingly.

Image result for ty montgomery packers number change

Green Bay actually traded out of the first round, but both of their second round picks helped their secondary (they took a corner and a safety).  Their next two picks were also on the defensive side of the ball, but they did snag three RBs in this draft (in the 4th, 5th, and 7th rounds).  I didn't have Jamaal Williams on my radar before the draft, but I sure do now.  I added some other guys to my watch list (or even my top-200) based on where they landed.  I also removed a few rookies and veterans from my watch list, and here are some explanations of why you no longer see these guys:

Jimmy Garoppolo: There were trade rumors with him, but no trade = no fantasy value behind Brady.
Matt Jones: Unless he's traded between now and training camp, he's off my watch list.
Jerick McKinnon: With the Vikings taking Dalvin Cook in 2nd round, not much role left for Jerick.
Justin Forsett: I said last time I thought he was done in the league, and now he's retiring.
Dede Westbrook (R): Fell to the 4th round. Drafted by the Jags. I see no value in 2017.
Amara Darboh (R): No Seattle WR gets fantasy numbers except for Doug Baldwin.
Chris Godwin (R): Love the pick for Winston, but too many WRs for Godwin to have fantasy value.
Travis Rudolph (R): He went undrafted but signed with the Giants, who have plenty of WRs already.
ArDarius Stewart (R): Drafted by the Jets, so probably doomed. I won't be drafting him in fantasy.
DeShone Kizer (R): Speaking of doomed, this poor guy got drafted by the Browns. No thanks.


So let's see who else moved around after the draft, shall we?


Cheers,
Bart


1. Le'Veon Bell
2. David Johnson
3. Ezekiel Elliott 
4. Antonio Brown
5. Julio Jones
6. Mike Evans
7. Odell Beckham, Jr.
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Jay Ajayi
10. Jordan Howard
11. AJ Green
12. Jordy Nelson
13. Melvin Gordon
14. Devonta Freeman
15. Todd Gurley
16. Michael Thomas 
17. T.Y. Hilton 
18. Dez Bryant 
19. DeMarco Murray: Felt too high. Derrick Henry has to be bigger part of committee in '17.   
20. Leonard Fournette (R): Went #4 to Jacksonville, and should be workhorse there. Way up for me. 
21. Carlos Hyde 
22. Lamar Miller 
23. Rob Gronkowski
24. Aaron Rodgers
25. DeAndre Hopkins
26. Amari Cooper
27. Doug Baldwin
28. Brandin Cooks
29. Davante Adams
30. Sammy Watkins: Swapped him with ARob. Sammy now playing for a big contract.
31. Ty Montgomery: The Packers drafted some RBs, but waited a while. Cut Michael. Ty way up!
32. Isaiah Crowell: Browns didn't draft a RB til nearly the last pick in the draft. Crowell up. 
33. Marshawn Lynch: Now a Raider and all the way up to this RB tier. 
34. Paul Perkins: Giants rumored to sign Blount, but Perkins stays up here until that happens.
35. Allen Robinson
36. Michael Crabtree
37. Demaryius Thomas
38. Alshon Jeffery
39. Tom Brady
40. Drew Brees
41. Andrew Luck
42. Travis Kelce
43. Jordan Reed 
44. CJ Anderson: The Jamaal Charles signing may be nothing, but CJ down slightly to this RB tier.
45. Christian McCaffery (R): Went #8 to Carolina. Up quite a bit, especially for my keeper league. 
46. Frank Gore: Thought Indy would draft a RB early. They didn't. Gore WAY up, even at his age. 
47. Spencer Ware: Chiefs traded up to draft Hunt in the 3rd Rd. Ware down, but not much.  
48. Tevin Coleman  
49. Mark Ingram: With the Saints signing AP & drafting Kamara, Ingram down a couple RB tiers.
50. Dalvin Cook (R): Vikes moved up to get him. Down slightly but ahead of Latavius.
51. Terrelle Pryor, Sr.
52. Keenan Allen: Down a few. The TEs and both Williams boys will take away targets. 
53. Jarvis Landry
54. Kelvin Benjamin 
55. Larry Fitzgerald
56. Corey Davis (R): Tennessee took him at #5. Up slightly, but Titans a run-heavy offense. 
57. Golden Tate
58. Emmanuel Sanders  
59. Ameer Abdullah  
60. Joe Mixon (R): Bengals took him in Rd 2. Way up. Might need to be higher than this...  
61. Latavius Murray: Dalvin Cook will have big role.  Latavius down.
62. Jonathan Stewart: Same with McCaffrey in Carolina. The Daily Show down too.
63. Eddie Lacy: He felt too high for what will likely be a RBBC. Down a bit. 
64. Rob Kelley: Redskins took Perine in Rd 4. Should push Kelley for touches, so he's down.
65. Brandon Marshall: And he felt too low where I had him. Up to the top of this WR tier.
66. Eric Decker  
67. Julian Edelman: Injury history + Cooks = Edelman back down a WR tier for me.
68. Donte Moncrief 
69. Jamison Crowder 
70. LeGarrette Blount: I didn't think he'd still be a Patriot, and likely right. Stays put for now though.
71. Adrian Peterson: Had him in the 50s, but now likely behind Ingram in New Orleans, down a bit. 
72. Matt Forte 
73. Russell Wilson 
74. Matt Ryan 
75. Derek Carr 
76. Kirk Cousins  
77. Cam Newton: Moved back up to this QB tier. Panthers added some weapons for him in the draft.
78. Dak Prescott
79. Stefon Diggs: Moved him up to the top of this small WR tier. 
80. Martavis Bryant: Conditionally re-instated, but I assumed so last update when I moved him up.
81. Tyreek Hill 
82. Bilal Powell  
83. Theo Riddick 
84. C.J. Prosise 
85. Kenneth Dixon 
86. Giovani Bernard: Down a bit with Bengals taking Mixon so high.
87. Danny Woodhead 
88. Greg Olsen: Moved this TE tier slightly up. 
89. Jimmy Graham 
90. Tyler Eifert
91. Jameis Winston: Bucs added Howard and Godwin in draft. Up a couple of spots.
92. Matthew Stafford 
93. Marcus Mariota 
94. Philip Rivers: With addition of Mike Williams, it felt like Rivers belonged up a QB tier.  
95. Ben Roethlisberger 
96. Doug Martin: Starts '17 suspended, but apparently looking good after a little rehab. Up slightly.  
97. Mike Gillislee: Now in a crowded backfield, but in New England. TD upside. He's WAY up.
98. Jeremy Hill: Afraid Mixon will take over, so he's down. Nearly out of top-100.
99. Derrick Henry: Felt too low. Has to be bigger part of offense in second season.
100. Darren Sproles: Could end up leading the Eagle RBs in snaps. Had him way too low.  
101. Rishard Matthews: Titans took Corey Davis higher than expected. Rishard down a bunch.
102. Mike Williams (R): Chargers not a great landing spot for fantasy, so he's down a lot for me. 
103. Mike Wallace: The Ravens didn't draft a WR, so Mike Wallace moves up my big board.
104. Cameron Meredith: Likely the #1 WR for the Bears in '17. Up a bit. 
105. Willie Snead: He keeps moving up my top-200. Should be clear #2 WR in New Orleans.
106. Duke Johnson  
107. Jamaal Charles: Signed with Denver, but stays out of my top-100 for now.
108. Thomas Rawls
109. Ryan Mathews: Expected to play in 2017, but neck/back issues concerning for a RB. Down. 
110. Samaje Perine (R): Redskins took him in Rd 4. Wouldn't be surprised if he surpassed Fat Rob. 
111. DeSean Jackson 
112. John Brown: Team says he's healthy, so he's way up for me.     
113. Corey Coleman 
114. Randall Cobb: Had him a bit too low. Jordy is old and Montgomery now a RB...  
115. Kenny Britt: Felt too high in top-100. Corey Coleman should start being the man, right? 
116. Delanie Walker: Top -100 felt too high for Delanie Walker, especially with Corey Davis there. 
117. Martellus Bennett 
118. Kyle Rudolph  
119. Breshad Perriman: Up slightly with the Ravens not taking a single WR in the draft. 
120. Kevin White   
121. DeVante Parker  
122. Josh Doctson  
123. Devin Funchess 
124. J.J. Nelson: Like I said, the team says John Brown is healthy. J.J. down a bit.   
125. Quincy Enunwa  
126. John Ross (R): Went to the Bengals at #9. Big play guy, but didn't feel right in top-100.  
127. T.J. Yeldon: With the Jags taking Fournette at #4, Yeldon is a 3rd down back at best. Down.  
128. Jalen Richard: Should still have passing down role, even with Marshawn there. Down though.
129. Jamaal Williams (R): Packers grabbed him in Rd 4. Could play a big role in 2017.  
130. Terrance West 
131. Kareem Hunt (R): Chiefs traded up to get him in the 3rd round. He'll push for playing time.
132. Pierre Garcon
133. Jeremy Maclin   
134. Marvin Jones 
135. Will Fuller: Watson an upgrade, so he's up a few spots.
136. Adam Thielen 
137. Marqise Lee
138. Tyler Lockett
139. Tyrod Taylor: Moved Eli and friends up to this tier with Tyrod.
140. Eli Manning: Added Brandon Marshall and now Evan Engram this offseason. Up.
141. Andy Dalton: Got another weapon in John Ross. Back up slightly.
142. Carson Wentz
143. Blake Bortles 
144. Deshaun Watson (R): Should start for the Texans right way. Run potential has him in top-150.
145. Zach Ertz 
146. Jack Doyle 
147. Hunter Henry
148. Eric Ebron
149. Jonathan Williams: Likely #2 RB left in Buffalo, and they run a lot. He's way up to top-150.  
150. Charles Sims: He felt way too high, especially after Bucs drafted McNichols.  
151. Dion Lewis: Blount has to be on his way out of NE now, but Gillislee/Burkhead there. Down.   
152. DeAndre Washington: With the Raiders signing Lynch, DeAndre WAY down.
153. Alvin Kamara (R): Saints drafted him. Crowded backfield, but he'll get touches. Up slightly. 
154. Marlon Mack (R): A 4th round pick by the Colts, and Gore is old as hell.   
155. Jacquizz Rodgers 
156. Zay Jones (R): Bills traded up to get him in Rd 2. Could be instant #2 WR in Buffalo. 
157. Kenny Stills 
158. Tyrell Williams: Taking Mike Williams at #7 signals to me that Tyrell needed to move down.
159. Cole Beasley
160. Sterling Shepard: Down even more with the addition of Evan Engram.
161. Robert Woods: Top-150 felt too high.  I'm not sure he does much in LA with Goff...
162. Jordan Matthews
163. James White
164. Chris Thompson
165. Tim Hightower 
166. Rex Burkhead: Blount has to be gone now, but Gillislee there. Down.
167. Jared Cook: Getting a few more TEs into the top-200. Cook maybe a post-post-hype sleeper.
168. Julius Thomas
169. C.J. Fiedorowicz
170. Devontae Booker: Down a few spots with Denver signing Jamaal Charles.
171. Knile Davis: This could change to De'Angelo if Steelers re-sign him...or rookie Connor.
172. Kenyan Drake
173. Kenjon Barner
174. Taylor Gabriel: His production may have been a bit fluky. Down a bit.
175. Ted Ginn
176. Curtis Samuel (R): Panthers took him in Rd 2, and should be a slot WR. Up from watch list.
177. Broncos DEFENSE: Earliest bye week (Week 5). No reason to be 30 picks above other Ds.
178. Seahawks DEFENSE: At GB Week 1. Also no reason to be above rest of defenses.
179. Ravens DEFENSE: Moved up. Good schedule and used ALL high draft picks on defense.
180. Texans DEFENSE: Up a bit. I like their schedule.
181. Patriots DEFENSE
182. Panthers DEFENSE
183. Vikings DEFENSE
184. Giants DEFENSE   
185. Cardinals DEFENSE: Tough first three games. Down a few.
186. Bengals DEFENSE
187. Steelers DEFENSE: Great schedule, including at Cleveland Week 1. You could do worse.
188. Bills DEFENSE: Jets at home Week 1, and new head coach who is a great defensive mind.
189. Justin Tucker
190. Stephen Gostkowski
191. Mason Crosby
192. Caleb Sturgis: I like a late bye for a kicker, and his is Week 10. So he's up a bunch.
193. Sebastian Janikowski
194. Cairo Santos
195. Dan Bailey
196. Adam Vinatieri
197. Matt Prater
198. Nick Novak
199. Steven Hauschka
200. Zane Gonzalez (R): Drafted by the Browns in the last round, and he'll round out my top-200.


[The Watch List]

QBs
Carson Palmer
Joe Flacco
Ryan Tannehill

RBs
Chris Ivory: Down to the watch list with Fournette in town. Wonder if they'll cut Ivory...
Christine Michael: Packers released him, so he's down to the watch list.
Wendell Smallwood: With the Eagles drafting Pumphrey, Smallwood to the watch list.
DeAngelo Williams
Shane Vereen
Shaun Draughn
Zach Zenner
Alfred Morris
Darren McFadden
Alfred Blue
Robert Turbin
Jeremy Langford
Benny Cunningham
Corey Clement (R): Undrafted but signed with the Eagles. If Mathews gone, Corey could get work.
Jeremy McNichols (R): Stays on watch list, but not sure he'll overtake Sims for 3rd down duty.
Wayne Gallman (R): Giants got him in Rd 4 too. Crowded backfield. Stays in watch list.
D'Onta Foreman (R): May get goal line touches, but HOU not a great landing spot. Watch list.
Donnel Pumphrey (R): Added to watch list, but likely won't replace Sproles til 2018.
James Connor (R): Drafted by PIT in 3rd Round (fittingly). Added to watch list. Could back up Bell.
Joe Williams (R): Another RB drafted in the 4th Rd. This time by San Fran. Keep an eye on him.
Aaron Jones (R): The other RB the packers took (Rd 5). Probably little value, but you never know.
Rashad Jennings
James Starks
Matt Asiata
Charcandrick West: Chiefs trade up to get Hunt. West likely 3rd RB at best. Down to watch list.

WRs
Tajae Sharpe: Down to watch list with the Titans drafting Corey Davis.
Michael Floyd: Still an unsigned free agent. Down to the watch list.
Tyler Boyd: He's down to the watch list with the Bengals taking John Ross at #9 overall.
Brandon Coleman: Added to the watch list. Thought Saints might draft a WR but didn't.
Tavon Austin
Allen Hurns
Brian Quick
Andre Ellington
Malcolm Mitchell
Laquon Treadwell
Kendall Wright
Torrey Smith
Kamar Aiken
Phillip Dorsett
Eli Rogers
Sammie Coates
Anquan Boldin
Mohamed Sanu
Robby Anderson
Brandon LaFell
Josh Gordon
Vincent Jackson
JuJu Smith-Schuster (R): Steelers took him at end of Rd 2. I suppose he could have value if Martavis slips up, but likely still behind Coates/Rogers.  He'll stay in the watch list.

TEs
Cameron Brate: The addition of O.J. Howard has me moving Brate to the watch list.
O.J. Howard (R): Same with Howard himself. Not sure either has TE1 value now.
Evan Engram (R): Drafted by the G Men in Round 1, but doubt he'll have much fantasy value in '17.
David Njoku (R): Drafted by the Browns. Stays on the watch list, but could move up.
Gary Barnidge: Browns released him, which could be good for his fantasy value. Watch list for now.
Austin Hooper
Ladarius Green
Dwayne Allen
Coby Fleener
Vance McDonald
Charles Clay
Zach Miller
Vernon Davis
Tyler Higbee
Gerald Everett (R)

DEFs
Chiefs: Down to the watch list. At New England Week 1. Would need to draft two Ds if take KC...
Bucs
Dolphins
Eagles

Ks
Jake Elliott (R): Bengals took him in the 5th round, so I'm assuming he'll be their starter.