As far as fantasy football goes, I'm sure glad last week wasn't this week because it was a weird one. I was already securely in my fantasy playoffs in both of
my leagues, so Week 13 wasn't a critical one for me personally. But for a lot of fantasy managers in a lot of leagues, people were relying on points from players who just didn't produce. In my money league, I barely scored 50 fantasy points, and it was my lowest point total in any week since 2007 (believe me, I checked the history!). There certainly were "studs" who produced (Mahomes, Gurley, Antonio Brown, McCaffrey, Kelce, etc.), but here are some crazy FACTS from Week 13...
- Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and Jared Goff each had less than 10 fantasy points.
- Josh Allen and Derek Carr were top-5 fantasy QBs.
- With his 2 touchdowns, Chase Edmonds outscored David Johnson by more than 10 fantasy points.
- James Develin also had 2 rushing touchdowns. (Who?!?...Exactly.)
- Dante Pettis was the #1 fantasy WR, and rounding out the top-5 were Jaron Brown and Zay Jones.
- Here's a list of WRs with less than 5 fantasy points in Week 13: Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
- Gronk, Ebron, Njoku, and Olsen combined for less than 10 fantasy points.
- After losing 7 games in a row and looking terrible, Sacksonville D was the #1 fantasy play against what was a smoking hot Colts team.
- The Giants and Jets were also both top-5 fantasy defenses. Um...what?
If you survived Week 13, congratulations. Let's hope Week 14 is a little more predictable.
To the rankings!
QUARTERBACKS
Last week, I was pretty high on Case Keenum (+6), but he stunk against the defense giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. I thought he'd be a
top-15 QB against the Bengals, but he nearly finished outside of the top-20. He still has amazing matchups left on his fantasy schedule (Niners, Browns, and Raiders), but if he can't do it against Cincy, I'm not that confident he can do it against those other teams. I was down on Ryan
Tannehill (-4), who was facing a Buffalo defense that gives up
the
fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. I thought he might be one of the worst fantasy QBs last week, but he somehow managed 3 touchdowns even though he had just 137 passing yards.
This week, I have both Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott in my top-12 (currently +4 on each). Wilson has been one of the hottest fantasy QBs in the second half of the season, and I'm not betting against him on Monday Night Football. As for Dak, he faces that terrible Eagle secondary and I think he and Amari Cooper will connect a lot in this game. I'm down on Ryan Tannehill again (-4), but I'm even lower on Matt Ryan (-6). The ECR has him as a top-12 play in Green Bay, but I'm not buying it. Ryan has just 4 TD passes in his last 3 games
combined, and he tends to play worse outside of domes. I think Green Bay, Wisconsin qualifies as "outside of domes", and right now the forecast is showing the high temperature for Sunday as below freezing.
RUNNING BACKS
I was reluctantly high on Jordan Howard last week (+7), and I actually had him inside
my top-25 against a Giant defense that had been giving
up a TON of fantasy points to running backs every week since they traded away Snacks
Harrison. Well, the Giants gave up a ton of points to a Chicago RB, but it was Tarik Cohen. Still, Howard had a solid game and got 8 fantasy points, which was good for the #32 RB in Week 13. I was also high on Kenyan Drake (+7) who scored a touchdown and ended up just inside the top-25 where I ranked him. I was high on
Chris Thompson though (+7), but even a negative game script couldn't help him with McCoy and then Sanchez leading the offense. I was +30 on Darren Sproles in that same game, and I didn't see why he wouldn't get some touches and end
up in the top-50. Well, he actually found the endzone and finished in
the top-30 in his first action since Week 1.
I was pretty low on Dion Lewis (-8)
and James White (-9) last week. Lewis had less than 7 fantasy points in each of
the previous 3 weeks, and he kept that streak going. White had less than 8 fantasy points in each of his
previous two games, but he actually had a long catch and run just before halftime that put him into double digits. If he doesn't have that "garbage time" play, he finishes where I ranked him. I say "garbage time" because time expired and the Vikings essentially were playing for the Hail Mary and just made sure he didn't get into the endzone. Either way, with Sony Michel and now Rex Burkhead back from injury, I'm not trusting James White the way I was earlier in the year.
 I have LeGarrette Blount just inside my top-25 this week (+10 vs ECR). I don't feel great about ranking him so highly, but assuming Kerryon Johnson is still out, Blount should be a workhorse against a Cardinal defense that gives up the 2nd most points to RBs thi syear. I'm still way down on James White this week (-10) and fairly low on Dion Lewis too (-6). Again, those guys feel like FLEX plays and not RB2s anymore. If you look inside my top-25, I'm pretty low on Gus Edwards (-7). I worry about negative game script in this one, as the Ravens are playing at Arrowhead. Edwards has exactly one catch in the 7 games he's played in, so he's really not involved in the passing game at all. If the Ravens find themselves playing from behind, I think we could see a lot more Ty Montgomery, and Kenneth Dixon could get more involved as well. I'm afraid the volume might not be there this week for Gus the Bus. |
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| WIDE RECEIVERS |
If
you looked near the end of my top-25 last week, I was
slightly high on Stefon Diggs (+7), Larry Fitzgerald (+7), and Josh Reynolds (+5). In what was kind of a weird week, NONE of those guys finished in the top-25. I was super high on
Josh Doctson against a terrible Eagle secondary (+19 on Wednesday, just +9 on Sunday), but again...Mark Sanchez. Doctson finished as a top-50 WR but not top-40 where I ranked him. I was also really high on Devin Funchess (+18), who I had in my top-40. He had just one catch, but it was in the endzone. He finished right about where I ranked him, so that worked out pretty well.
I was down on T.Y. Hilton
(-12) who I had well outside of my top-20 WRs. He's been mostly great
when healthy this year, but he didn't have a great game against the Jags in Week 10 (3 catches for 77 yards and no touchdown). I saw a similar stat line for him the second time around, and while he had more targets/catches, he ended up with exactly 77 yards (and no touchdown). He finished outside of the top-30 WRs in Week 13, but I have him back up as a top-12 play this week and the rest of the season.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62628217/1067797832.jpg.0.jpg) If you look inside my top-30, I'm highest on Curtis Samuel (+11) and Dante Pettis (+13). Samuel has had one bad game in his last 5, and he has at least 9.6 fantasy points in each of those other 4 games. He's a playmaker who has a nose for the endzone, and I think he'll finish in the top-30 one way or another. As for Pettis, he was the #1 fantasy WR last week and the #15 WR the week before that. Remember that year Miles Austin had a couple of huge games but no one really believed in him? This has the same feel to me for some reason. Pettis is doing his work out of the slot, and the Broncos just lost Chris Harris to a broken leg. I don't care if Goodwin and/or Garcon are back this week. I think the matchup to exploit will still be with Pettis, and I could see him having double digit fantasy points again.
I'm even lower than the ECR on Alshon Jeffery (-7), who has had less than 5 fantasy points in 5 straight games. In Week 10, he had 4 catches for 48 yards against the Cowboys. I kinda like Wentz in this game, but I see him having TDs to his tight ends and maybe Golden Tate again (not Alshon). I'm also really low on Corey Davis (-12), and this is purely based on his matchup. I'm not sure if he'll get Ramsey or Bouye, but it doesn't matter. Both are shutdown corners and remember T.Y. Freakin Hilton's numbers against the Jags in two games this year? I don't expect Davis to be anywhere near the top-20 in tomorrow night's game. |
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TIGHT ENDS
I stayed high on Jonnu Smith in Week 13 (+4) because he'd been a top-5 TE the previous 4 weeks. For whatever reason, it was Anthony Firkser who caught a TD for the Titans and ended up as a top-5 play. Jonnu had a mediocre stat line and ended up outside of the top-20. I was highest on Rhett Ellison (+9) and Blake Jarwin (+13). I had both as top-25 plays, but only Ellison produced as such.
I was
down on Austin Hooper (-8), and I pointed out that I really didn't trust anyone outside of
my top-15 TEs. This position has been a nightmare this year. I've had Ertz in one league and Gronk/OJ Howard in another, so I've been able to navigate it fairly well. But unless you have one of those situations or Kelce/Kittle, you're screwed! As for Hooper, he'd had less than 5 fantasy points in four of his previous five games...so of course he scored a garbage time touchdown and finished as a top-5 tight end. Ugh. I really hate the tight end position this year.
 As for this week, I guess I'm recommending you consider Jimmy Graham (+5 vs ECR) because I have him in my top-10. Graham is playing through a thumb injury, but he turned 11 targets into 50 receiving yards last week. Good luck finding the possibility of those targets anywhere outside of my top-10. I'm lowest on Gerald Everett this week (-7) who had a terrible game last week in Detroit. He had three solid games before that stinker, but before that he didn't score more than 2.5 fantasy points in any games Weeks 1-8. I'm trusting the bad games of Weeks 1-8 (& 13), and I'll say he finishes well outside of the top-15 this week. But it's the tight end position, so who the hell knows?! |
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DEFENSES
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I went back through my weekly rankings and realized I've been high on the Saints defense nearly every week since Week 4. And for 3 straight weeks now, I've been anywhere from +5 to +7 vs the ECR on this unit. They finished as the #2 fantasy defense in Week 12, and I said you shouldn't rank them outside of the top-12 against
the Cowboys on Thursday night. They didn't win the game, but the defense was good and finished in the top-10. I'm currently +5 versus the ECR this week as well. They just feel like a top-12 fantasy defense every week to me.
While I continued to be high on the Saints, I also continued to be
down
on the Jags (-6). They had just played the Colts in Week 10,
and the defense was one of the worst options in that week. If anything, I thought Week 13 could be
worse
with Fournette out and Cody Kessler starting at quarterback (lack of offense hurting the defense). While I was right about the Jag offense being terrible, I didn't think they'd shut out Andrew Luck and the Colts. As I mentioned in the intro, Sacksonville finished as the top fantasy defense in Week 13, so I was way off with that call.
This week, I'm highest on the Giants (+12) because they're facing Mark Sanchez and a bunch of backups on the O-line. I know they're not a great defense, but I still think they'll be in the top-10 this week based on matchup alone. I'm lowest on, well, my Redskins (-7). I expect the offense to struggle, which could mean short fields for Saquon to run on. Eli will certainly throw a pick and get sacked a couple of times, but I think the Giants could put up a lot of points in this game. This matchup was 20-13 in Week 8, but the Giants have averaged nearly 30 points per game in their 4 games since then.
Good luck to everyone in Week 14!
(Except you, Jimmy...)
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Going into Monday Night Football, I needed about 6 fantasy points from Michael Thomas to advance to the championship in my money league. He ended up with just 49 receiving yards and apparently 45 more yards that were called back due to penalties. Yeah, thanks for pointing that out, Yahoo! I was watching the game!!
This week, I'm fairly high on Mitch Trubisky (+6) against the 49ers. Trubisky struggle with turnovers at times, but his legs keep his floor super high. I could see him having a couple of touchdowns and 50-70 rushing yards, which should get him into the top-10. I'm kind of down on Dak Prescott (-4), but I could easily see him having a good game against Tampa's poor defense. Still, I have other guys I trust ahead of him in my top-10 for championship week.
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This week I'm high on the Falcons (+10). Did I mention they're playing the Panthers without Cam Newton? Yeah, I think I did. I always like starting defenses against young quarterbacks from ODU who have 5 career pass attempts. It almost seems too easy. I'm not down on a ton of defenses this week, but that might change come Sunday. I'll try to get an update out on Sunday, and I hope to work on my FLEX rankings a bit between now and then. 
