Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2015 Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings

Week 11 saw plenty of low fantasy scores, and only a couple of teams in my money league even broke 100.  Of course my opponent was one of them, and I was not.  I lost for the third week in a row in that league as my team scored well under the projections for the second week in a row.  Not a great time to be doing that, guys!  But I'm still holding out hope that 6 wins could get me into the playoffs in that league.  That would mean I have to win these last two contests, and I might need some help along the way.  At least I have way more fantasy points than everyone not in the top-4 (and they've all but clinched playoff spots anyway).  That total points tiebreaker would help me if I can finish strong, so hopefully that'll start here in Week 12.

As for my other two leagues, I'm looking good for the playoffs in both.  So if I lose again in my money league, at least I'll have those to focus on.  My ESPN league is 14 teams with only the top four making the playoffs, and it looks like my wife and I both will make it to the postseason there.  I'm just hoping we don't play against each other in the first round because I'd love to at least have the chance at an All-Wheeler Championship!

This is the game I really care about this week!

If you read last week's rankings, you may recall that my wife and I will be going to FedEx Field on Sunday to see if my Redskins can take the lead from the Giants in that horrible NFC East division.  Like my fantasy team, there's still hope for the playoffs in Washington even with a losing record this late in the season.  Keep in mind that the bye weeks are over, so everyone is at full strength for the playoff push.  With all of the teams playing again, there might be some big names way down the lists and some left out of my rankings altogether.  And one final note: don't forget there are THREE games tomorrow (starting with Eagles/Lions at 12:30).  Because, you know, the order of family/football/shopping gets a little muddled these days.

Here's to hoping you keep them more or less in that order.  Happy Thanksgiving!

QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers 
2.Carson Palmer
3.Cam Newton
4.Drew Brees 
5.Eli Manning
6.Brian Hoyer    
7.Derek Carr 
8.Tom Brady
9.Blake Bortles 
10.Andy Dalton 
11.Matthew Stafford 
12.Philip Rivers 
13.Russell Wilson
14.Matt Ryan 
15.Ben Roethlisberger

Well, last week I was wrong about being down on Andy Dalton (ESPN #8, ME #13), as he finished as a top-5 fantasy QB.  I was right in saying the Cardinals would hand the Bengals back-to-back losses, but "Bad Andy" didn't show up in prime time.  I'm hoping Bad Andy shows up against the Rams this week because I'll be facing him in my money league in a MUST-WIN game!  I was high on Marcus Mariota (ESPN #18, ME #12), and while he didn't finish as a QB1 on Thursday night, he did finish higher than the ESPN experts had him ranked (he finished 14th).  Like I said, if you had someone like Brees/BigBen/Eli as your regular QB (and on a bye), you could have done a lot worse than Mariota in Week 11.  I wanted to rank him (along with fellow rookie Jameis Winston) this week, but both were just on the outside of my top-15.  But hey, they're in good company with the likes of Tony Romo (I sure hope I'm right and the Panthers shut him and the Cowboys down tomorrow!).

I'm high on: Derek Carr (ESPN 15, ME #7)
I guess the ESPN experts can't forgive ONE bad game like I can!  Prior to last week's stinker in Detroit, Derek Carr was averaging 300 yards and 3 TDs in his previous 4 games.  Heck, even if you include his zero-TD performance in Week 11, he has still been a top-5 fantasy QB in his last 5 contests.  I say roll him out there against the Titans this week with confidence.

Logic says to start Brady, but I'm not gonna!
I'm down on: Tom Brady (ESPN #4, ME #8) 
This is crazy, right?  Tell me I'm crazy.  I know, I'm probably crazy.  A couple of weeks ago, I made a trade to get Brady on my squad in my money league.  After losing Dion Lewis and Edelman (and now likely Amendola for at least this week), Tommy Boy finds himself in a tough spot in Denver.  The Bronco defense has shut down top QBs before, and I could see that happening again on Sunday night.  I'm going to try to put my money where my mouth is and hopefully have the guts to start Brian Hoyer instead of Brady this week.  Maybe it's crazy, but I just trust guys like Carr and Hoyer more than Tom Brady in Week 12!

RBs
1.Adrian Peterson  
2.Todd Gurley
3.Devonta Freeman
4.Doug Martin 
5.Mark Ingram 
6.Darren McFadden 
7.Jonathan Stewart  
8.DeMarco Murray   
9.Chris Johnson 
10.LeSean McCoy  
11.Thomas Rawls 
12.Chris Ivory
13.TJ Yeldon 
14.Javorius Allen
15.LeGarrette Blount  
16.Matt Forte 
17.Lamar Miller
18.Spencer Ware 
19.Eddie Lacy 
20.Latavius Murray 
21.DeAngelo Williams 
22.Giovani Bernard 
23.Frank Gore
24.Ronnie Hillman 
25.Alfred Blue 
26.Antonio Andrews 
27.Jeremy Hill  
28.Danny Woodhead   
29.Matt Jones 
30.Shaun Draughn
31.Jeremy Langford  
32.Rashad Jennings 
33.Melvin Gordon 
34.James White 
35.James Starks

So I was WAY off on my RBs last week.  I was high on DeMarco Murray (ESPN #11, ME #4), but he actually finished outside of the top-25 RBs in Week 11.  And I was down on Eddie Lacy, who actually finished as a top-20 RB!  The ESPN experts only ranked him 33rd, but I still was talking trash about even ranking him.  He got 22 carries and racked up 100 yards on the ground versus the Vikings.  Is he "back"?  Your guess is as good as mine.  This week I've moved him well ahead of James Starks, but I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow night. 

Speaking of this week, you'll notice I didn't rank Charcandrick West.  It seems like hamstring injuries tend to keep guys out a week or two, so I feel like Spencer Ware could get the start against Buffalo.  I also didn't rank Carlos Hyde, as I don't see why the 49ers would rush him back in a now-meaningless game in this lost season for San Fran.  I did rank Matt Forte, but it's possible he misses another game on a short week.  Keep an eye on that tomorrow after you're done eating turkey, but if he doesn't play then you're probably going to keep rolling Langford out there against Green Bay.  I also ranked Frank Gore, and I'm hoping his quad injury doesn't keep him out against Tampa Bay.  If it does, Ahmad Bradshaw would immediately be in my top-35 (probably right where Gore is now actually).

It's Buck Allen time!
I'm high on: Javorius Allen (ESPN #21, ME #14)
When Justin Forsett left the game last week with a broken arm, Javorius Allen came in and gained 115 total yards on 27 touches.  And that was against a good Rams defense.  This week the Ravens face the Browns on Monday night, and Cleveland has given up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.  It's possible that other RBs get in the mix, but I like for Allen to get 20 plus touches and tally over 100 yards and a TD against the Browns.  

I'm down on: DeAngelo Williams (ESPN #12, ME #21) 
In Week 9, DeAngelo ran all over the Raiders (and against my fantasy team in my money league).  But then in Week 10, he came back down to earth against the Browns.  Yes, the same Browns run defense that gets torched by most opponents as I mentioned above.  This week, the Steelers travel to Seattle to face a defense giving up the FEWEST fantasy points to opposing RBs, and I don't like him nearly as much as the ESPN experts do.

WRs
1.DeAndre Hopkins
2.Odell Beckham, Jr.
3.Julio Jones
4.Antonio Brown
5.Allen Robinson
6.Calvin Johnson  
7.Larry Fitzgerald 
8.Mike Evans 
9.Dez Bryant 
10.Demaryius Thomas 
11.Brandon Marshall  
12.AJ Green  
13.Brandin Cooks  
14.Randall Cobb   
15.Eric Decker
16.Amari Cooper  
17.Martavis Bryant 
18.Michael Crabtree  
19.Allen Hurns   
20.Travis Benjamin  
21.Jarvis Landry   
22.TY Hilton
23.Stevie Johnson 
24.John Brown  
25.Sammy Watkins   
26.Vincent Jackson 
27.Brandon LaFell  
28.Stefon Diggs 
29.DeSean Jackson 
30.Jordan Matthews 
31.James Jones
32.Golden Tate 
33.Davante Adams  
34.Jeremy Maclin
35.Kamar Aiken 

Week 11 was mostly bad all around for me, as I was wrong about my WR picks too.  I was high on Stefon Diggs (ESPN #28, ME #19), but he finished outside of the top-25 WRs.  I said he would get 10+ balls thrown his way against the Packers and he'd turn that into double-digit fantasy points.  Well I was close, as he had 9 targets but only hauled in 6 of them for 66 yards.  The thing is, guys like Megatron and Fitgerald had similar numbers in Week 11, but those guys are both in everyone's top-10s this week.  We'll see what happens, but I wouldn't give up on Diggs just yet.  I was down on Danny Amendola (ESPN #16, ME #26), but he had 9 catches for 117 yards on his way to a top-12 finish in Week 11.  He actually should have had more, but an inadvertent whistle from the refs cut one of his big gains short. He also left the game early with an injury, and I doubt he plays this week in Denver.  

Not only did I not rank Amendola this week, but I also didn't rank Alshon Jeffery or Emmanuel Sanders.  I agree with ESPN that both are top-20 fantasy plays if they're healthy, so I wanted to make that clear in case you were looking for them above!  Michael Floyd didn't make my top-35 either, but if he manages to be healthy (and active) this week, I'd like him as a top-25 play along with John Brown.

I'm high on: Travis Benjamin (ESPN #29, ME #20)
I'm high on Stefon Diggs again, but I'll give you someone different this week.  Benjamin seems a bit risky to be high on, considering Weeks 7-9 he had a combined 7.5 fantasy points.  But before Cleveland's bye week, he had 7 catches for 113 yards against the Steelers.  This week he faces another division foe, but the Ravens are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs this year.  I think Josh McCown will quickly reconnect with his favorite receiver, and Travis Benjamin could be in for a big day.


I'm down on: Jeremy Maclin (ESPN #26, ME #34) 
Alex Smith doesn't like throwing to his WRs.  Jeremy Maclin doesn't have more than 6 targets in a game since Week 5, and he hasn't scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 4!  The Bills don't exactly shut down the passing game, but Alex Smith kind of does...


TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski 
2.Greg Olsen
3.Tyler Eifert
4.Delanie Walker 
5.Gary Barnidge
6.Jordan Reed
7.Antonio Gates
8.Travis Kelce
9.Jason Witten 
10.Zach Miller

Hey!  Play me!  Play me!
Last week I was high on Eric Ebron (ESPN #12, ME #7) and down on Antonio Gates (ESPN #5, ME #9).  Well, I was 1 for 2 there because they both stunk!  Ebron did drop an easy TD in the endzone, so I was close on that call.  But otherwise he did literally nothing that amounted to a stat line.  I'm talking a big fat zero, folks!  Gates didn't do much better though, as the Chiefs continue to concede very little to the tight end position.  I'm still not sure Gates is 100% healthy, but I have him and a gimpy Jordan Reed both in my top-10 anyway.  I finally removed Jimmy Graham from my top-10 though.  I just couldn't do it this week.  I feel like if you want to roll with someone like Ben Watson or even Brent Celek out there this week, I understand.  Zach Ertz is out for tomorrow's game in Detroit, and Celek has looked good with Mark Sanchez under center.  Personally, I'll likely be starting Zach Miller, who will be starting for the injured Martellus Bennett tomorrow in Green Bay.  I guess I'm high on him versus the ESPN experts this week, but otherwise my rankings are pretty much the same.

DEF
1.Cardinals
2.Chiefs
3.Bengals
4.Panthers  
5.Patriots 
6.Seahawks
7.Jets 
8.Packers 
9.Broncos 
10.Giants

I was also 1 for 2 on my defense picks last week versus the ESPN experts.  I was high on the Chiefs (ESPN #11, ME #7), and they were the top fantasy defense in Week 11.  I was down on the Packers (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED), but they were all over Bridgewater and the Vikings on Sunday.  They finished as a top-10 fantasy defense, and I've moved them into my top-10 this week against Cutler and the Bears.

I'm high on: Giants (ESPN #22, ME #10)
Do you remember what they did against Washington in Week 3?  Because I sure do.  They've been a top-12 fantasy defense in their last 5 games, and they're coming off their bye week.  I hope I'm wrong because I'd love to see my team win big, but I'm trying to be a little realistic here.

I'm down on: Rams (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED) 
Don't get me wrong.  This is a good defense.  But they're also facing a Bengals team coming off their second loss in a row after starting the year 8-0.  Aside from recent games against the Texans and Steelers, the Bengals are averaging over 30 points per game this season.  I think they'll put up plenty of points in this one, and St. Louis could have a hard time in Cincy this week.

Good luck to everyone in Week 12!  
(Except you, Andy...)

Cheers,
Bart


Wednesday, November 18, 2015

2015 Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings

Thanks a lot, AJ Green!
This is going to sound like complaining...again.  That's probably because it is complaining.  I lost in my money league again last week, and I'm stuck in 7th place.  I lost to the guy who was ahead of me (6th place), and I helped contribute to the fewest points scored against him on the season.  I had only failed to put up at least 92 fantasy points once all season (until this week when I did it again).  On the other hand, my opponent had only managed to score at least 92 fantasy points TWICE all year!  What the heck is going on for me in that league?!?  Sooooo frustrating.  Almost as frustrating as losing by 1 point in my ESPN league as AJ Green fumbled late in the Monday night game.

Anyway, now I sit atop the bottom half of my money league with a weak 4-6 record, but I still have the 4th most points scored (and the 2nd most points against...ugh!).  But those total fantasy points could come into play as a tiebreaker if I can win 2 out of my next 3 games.  As crazy as it sounds, 6 wins just might get someone into the playoffs in that league, and getting into the playoffs is all I need to do to have a chance to win it all!

That's right, I'm thinking positive.  Maybe it's because the Redskins were the only NFC East team to win last week.  Looking at that division now, Washington is a win away from being at the top with the Giants.  Speaking of the G-Men, they're on a bye this week but then the Redskins will play them the Sunday after Thanksgiving.  My wife got me (really good) tickets to go see that game for my birthday, and it's actually shaping up to be a VERY meaningful game.  But I don't want to get a week ahead of myself.  The matchup I have this week is very meaningful in my fantasy league.  I'm playing the #3 team in the league who is currently on a 5-game winning streak...and I need a W!

It's the last week of the byes, and I'm sure everyone is happy about that.  The last bye is hitting some people pretty hard, but not me.  I'll be back at full strength with guys like Julio Jones and Frank Gore back in my lineup, and I'm going to need all the help I can get!

Let's see who else is back in the rankings this week, shall we?


BYES: Browns, Giants, Saints, Steelers

QBs
1.Tom Brady 
2.Cam Newton
3.Carson Palmer
4.Derek Carr 
5.Aaron Rodgers 
6.Philip Rivers  
7.Blake Bortles 
8.Matt Ryan 
9.Matthew Stafford  
10.Tony Romo
11.Russell Wilson 
12.Marcus Mariota
13.Andy Dalton
14.Ryan Fitzpatrick
15.Tyrod Taylor

Two weeks ago I was down on Peyton Manning (and I was right).  But last week I was actually high on him versus the experts (ESPN #14, ME #10)...and I was incredibly wrong.  He threw 4 interceptions and was pulled from the game in which he set the record for most career passing yards.  Yikes!  If you started Peyton last week, you were very disappointed.  Probably my worst call of the year.   

On the other hand, I was down on Tyrod in the Thursday night game against the Jets (ESPN #11, ME NOT RANKED), and I was spot on there!  He had only thrown 1 TD in each of his previous 3 games, and he continued that trend.  He finished outside of the top-20 QBs and will be a very borderline top-15 play for me the rest of the way.

Mariota has been great on the road...
I'm high on: Marcus Mariota (ESPN #18, ME #12)
A road start against a weak defense?  This is the spot where Mariota likes to throw 4 TDs, so why not again tomorrow night?  At this point in the season, you probably have one of the other guys in the top-10 (or you're not in the playoff hunt).  But if you happen to have someone like Brees/BigBen/Eli on a bye, you could do worse than the rookie against the Jags.  Jacksonville gives up top-5 fantasy numbers to opposing QBs this season, and Mariota averages over 3 passing TDs in his road starts this season.

I'm down on: Andy Dalton (ESPN #8, ME #13) 
I feel like all year I've been talking about how high I am on Dalton and Fitzpatrick versus the ESPN experts, but this week I'm staying away from the Red Ryder BB Gun.  "Bad Andy" always seems to show up in primetime, and I think that'll be the case again in Arizona this week.  I like for the Cardinals to hand the Bengals back-to-back losses, and I don't see Dalton having a top-10 fantasy night in this one.

RBs
1.Adrian Peterson 
2.Devonta Freeman   
3.Todd Gurley
4.DeMarco Murray
5.Charcandrick West 
6.Marshawn Lynch 
7.Darren McFadden
8.Chris Ivory  
9.Lamar Miller  
10.Jonathan Stewart 
11.LeGarrette Blount 
12.LeSean McCoy
13.Jeremy Langford
14.Latavius Murray 
15.Doug Martin 
16.Frank Gore 
17.Justin Forsett
18.James Starks 
19.Danny Woodhead 
20.Chris Johnson 
21.TJ Yeldon
22.Giovani Bernard     
23.Karlos Williams 
24.Matt Jones 
25.Ronnie Hillman
26.Jeremy Hill
27.Antonio Andrews
28.Melvin Gordon
29.Joique Bell 
30.Alfred Blue
31.Shaun Draughn  
32.Dexter McCluster 
33.Andre Ellington 
34.CJ Anderson 
35.Charles Sims

I wasn't really down on anyone versus the ESPN experts last week, so I gave you two guys I was high on: Charcandrick West (ESPN #22, ME #14) and Alfred Blue (ESPN #29, ME #21).  Charcandrick continued to get his usual (as of late) 100+ yards and a TD.  In fact, he racked up over 150 total yards and TWO touchdowns on his way to the second-best day for a fantasy RB in Week 10.  I now have him as a top-5 fantasy RB this week as the Chiefs travel to San Diego, and the ESPN experts do too.  Welcome to the party, boys.  You're only a couple of weeks late!  As for Alfred Blue on MNF?  Like I said, I had a feeling that "Bad Andy" could show up in primetime and Houston could find a way to stay in this one.  I was right in that respect (the Texans actually won the game), but Blue didn't do much of anything in this game. 

Oh, how I hope I'm wrong with this one!
I'm high on: DeMarco Murray (ESPN #11, ME #4)
This week in my money league, I'm facing two guys in my top-5: Gurley and DeMarco.  Ugh!  I'm not really sure why the ESPN experts are so down on DeMarco this week.  Ryan Mathews could be out with a concussion, and by "could be" I mean "definitely".  That guy's track record with injuries is a mile long.  No way is he playing on Sunday.  Not only that, but Mark Sanchez at the helm now.  So I feel like this game could be all DeMarco all the time.  I hope I'm wrong about this one for the sake of my fantasy team/season, but I think DeMarco Murray will be a top-5 fantasy RB for the second time in 3 weeks.

I'm down on: Eddie Lacy (ESPN #33, ME NOT RANKED) 
We all know that Eddie Lacy has been terrible this year.  Sure, we all had him as a top-5 preseason pick, but we're miles away from that point in time.  Keep in mind he's also coming off an injury.  I mean, he's been practicing this week, but how confident are you that he'll even play against the Vikings?  And if he does, I guess you're going to count on him to score a TD?  Minnesota has given up the 7th-fewest rushing touchdowns this season (5).  I wouldn't count on Lacy to hit paydirt, nor would I count on him at all this week (or maybe any week for the rest of the season!).

WRs
1.Julio Jones
2.Dez Bryant  
3.Calvin Johnson  
4.Allen Robinson
5.DeAndre Hopkins
6.Mike Evans 
7.Larry Fitzgerald 
8.Demaryius Thomas 
9.Amari Cooper 
10.Alshon Jeffery 
11.Randall Cobb   
12.Eric Decker
13.AJ Green 
14.Brandon Marshall 
15.Michael Crabtree  
16.Jarvis Landry
17.Allen Hurns
18.TY Hilton   
19.Stefon Diggs 
20.Sammy Watkins   
21.Brandon LaFell    
22.Davante Adams     
23.Stevie Johnson   
24.Michael Floyd  
25.Jeremy Maclin  
26.Danny Amendola 
27.Emmanuel Sanders 
28.Jordan Matthews 
29.Kamar Aiken 
30.Tavon Austin
31.Golden Tate
32.Rishard Matthews
33.John Brown  
34.Doug Baldwin  
35.Donte Moncrief

Last week I was high on Kamar Aiken (ESPN #38, ME #26) and down on Larry Fitzgerald (ESPN #17, ME #24).  I didn't understand how Joe Flacco was ranked as a top-15 fantasy QB in Week 9 but the ESPN experts didn't rank Aiken highly at all.  I mean, who did they think Joe would throw the ball to?  Anyway, Aiken finished right around 26th (where I ranked him).  As for Fitzgerald, well Carson Palmer put up big numbers against a Seattle defense that had been giving up the fewest fantasy points to WRs on the year.  Fitz finished as a top-10 fantasy WR in Week 10.  I'm playing against Carson Palmer this week in my money league (and likely Michael Floyd) and I'm pretty worried.  I guess we'll see what happens...

Let's pump the brakes on the little guy, OK?
I'm high on: Stefon Diggs (ESPN #28, ME #19)
I realize he's cooled off a bit since his hot start in Week 4, but Diggs is still the #1 target for Teddy Bridgewater.  I like for him to get 10+ balls thrown his way against he Packers, and I think he'll turn that into double-digit fantasy points.

I'm down on: Danny Amendola (ESPN #16, ME #26) 
I understand that like Julian Edelman, Amendola is a tiny white man who plays WR for the Patriots.  But unlike Edelman (and Wes Welker for that matter), Amendola hasn't done a ton in his career.  Maybe he'll step in and have an instant impact, but I like for Gronk and LaFell to benefit more than others seem to be thinking.

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski 
2.Greg Olsen
3.Tyler Eifert
4.Jordan Reed
5.Travis Kelce
6.Delanie Walker 
7.Eric Ebron
8.Jason Witten 
9.Antonio Gates  
10.Jimmy Graham  

Last week my tight end rankings continued to be pretty much the same as ESPN's, but this week I actually have a couple of glaring differences...

I'm high on: Eric Ebron (ESPN #12, ME #7)
The Raiders give up the second most fantasy points to tight ends, and Eric Ebron has averaged 6 targets over his last 3 games.  Kyle Rudolph just walked into the endzone last week against the Raiders, and I envision Ebron doing the same thing in Week 11.

I'm down on: Antonio Gates (ESPN #5, ME #9) 
The Chiefs don't give up fantasy points to tight ends.  In fact, they're on the opposite end of the spectrum as the Raiders and give up the second FEWEST.  I don't think Gates is 100% healthy, and I think he could be held in check this week.

DEF
1.Panthers  
2.Seahawks 
3.Broncos
4.Jets
5.Patriots 
6.Eagles 
7.Chiefs  
8.Rams
9.Cardinals   
10.Texans

For the third week in a row, my top-10 defenses were basically the same as ESPN's (just in a little different order).  But I was definitely down on the Seahawks versus the ESPN experts 
(ESPN #5, ME #10).  I didn't see a top-5 fantasy performance happening against a Cardinals team coming off a bye and giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing defenses this year.  I said I thought Arizona might pull off a win at Seattle, and they did.  A 4th quarter Bobby Wagner fumble return for a TD definitely helped your cause if you started the Seahawks D in your fantasy league, but they still were nowhere near a top-5 play last week. 

I'm high on: Kansas City Chiefs (ESPN #11, ME #7)
No fantasy defense is better in their last three games than the Chiefs.  They had a rough start to the season, but in their last 5 games they've actually been holding offenses to an average of just 14 points.  I think the Chargers will struggle to put points up against them, and KC should be a top-10 fantasy defense in Week 11. 

I'm down on: Green Bay Packers (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED) 
I considered ranking the Titans, Bengals, Falcons...even the Cowboys!  But I wasn't looking at Green Bay in my top-10 this week.  In the last 4 weeks, the Packers have been the WORST fantasy defense in all of fantasy football (yes, that includes the Saints).  Meanwhile, the Vikings have been winning and not giving up a ton of fantasy points to opposing defenses.  I don't like Green Bay on the road in this game, and I didn't even consider them this week.

Good luck to everyone in Week 11!  
(Except you, Carl...)

Cheers,
Bart