2018 Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings

Going into Monday Night Football, I needed about 6 fantasy points from Michael Thomas to advance to the championship in my money league.  He ended up with just 49 receiving yards and apparently 45 more yards that were called back due to penalties.  Yeah, thanks for pointing that out, Yahoo!  I was watching the game!!

That was frustrating to say the least, but that's how it goes in fantasy football.  Sometimes you win by 20 and sometimes you lose by less than a point.  You just have to put the best possible lineup out there and hope for the fantasy points to get you in the win column.  I'm still playing for third place in both of my leagues (one of which is for money), so I'm still trying to optimize that lineup. 

Let's take a look at the rankings and see if you can do the same!

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week, I was really high on Derek Carr (+9) because he'd been a top-10 fantasy QB over the last month and was facing a Cincinnati defense giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  He hadn't thrown an interception since October 7th, and he didn't throw one against the Bengals.  He didn't have a great game, but there were actually a lot of mediocre QB performances in Week 15.  Carr finished in the top-20, and he was just 4 fantasy points from being inside the top-12.

I was way down on Lamar Jackson (-6) because I thought Flacco could get a little playing time against the Bucs.  That didn't happen, and Lamar finished as a top-12 fantasy QB.  I was also down on Philip Rivers (-7) because he hadn't been great at Arrowhead recently, and I just didn't trust Rivers as a top-5 play on Thursday night.  While he didn't finish in the top-5, he was pretty close and you would've been happy with starting Rivers in Week 15.

This week, I'm fairly high on Mitch Trubisky (+6) against the 49ers.  Trubisky struggle with turnovers at times, but his legs keep his floor super high.  I could see him having a couple of touchdowns and 50-70 rushing yards, which should get him into the top-10.  I'm kind of down on Dak Prescott (-4), but I could easily see him having a good game against Tampa's poor defense.  Still, I have other guys I trust ahead of him in my top-10 for championship week.

RUNNING BACKS

With Shady & Ivory ruled out last week, I was high on Marcus Murphy (+15) and Keith Ford (+27).  I thought they'd split carries against what has been a leaky Lions defense of late.  I was kind of right here, as Murphy got the early work and had 35 rushing yards before exiting with an injury in the second quarter.  Keith Ford came in and tallied 53 total yards and finished well into the top-40 (where I ranked him).  I was lowest on Theo Riddick (-17), who I barely ranked in my top-60 RBs.  The ECR had him in the top-40, and the ECR was right.  Riddick got his usual 5-6 fantasy points and finished in the top-40. This week, I'm really high on Tevin Coleman (+9).  I have him as a top-12 RB after that big performance last week, and now he won't be splitting carries with Ito Smith (who is on the IR).  With Cam Newton out, I expect the Panther offense to struggle.  This could mean the Falcons get out to a lead, and I expect Coleman to get a ton of touches.  Volume is king with RBs, and if he finds the endzone too, Tevin should end up in the top-12.  I'm down on Kalen Ballage (-10), who also had a big Week 15.  But I'm sorry if I don't trust him after one good week, especially since he faces a much better Jags defense in Week 16.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Last week I wasn't too confident about anyone outside of my top-25 or so, but a couple of my good calls were Jordy Nelson (+12) and Calvin Ridley (-14).  Two of my bad calls were Randall Cobb (+23) and Kenny Golladay (-11).  I'm still really high on Cobb this week (+27), so maybe I didn't learn my lesson.  If he plays, I think he'll be heavily involved though.  If doesn't, I'll remove him from my rankings.  Simple as that. I'm also really high on DaeSean Hamilton (+20), who got a ton of targets last week.  Everyone is talking about Courtland Sutton since Demaryius Thomas got shipped off to Houston, but it's Hamilton who has actually looked better lately.  I think he could be a difference maker and a top-30 WR in Week 16.  I'm way down on D.J. Moore (-9) who I just don't trust without Cam.  He'll still be involved in the offense, but I just don't know what that'll mean as far as his fantasy production.  A little further down my rankings, you'll notice I don't trust Chris Conley as much as the experts do (-9).  I don't even have him as a top-50 WR this week, as I expect Mahomes to do his damage with Tyreek and Kelce. TIGHT ENDS Last week I had Chris Herndon in my top-12 (+5 vs ECR).  I didn't have a ton of reasoning behind that pick other than "Why not, right?".  He only ended up with 53 receiving yards, but that got him in the top-12!  I was down on Kyle Rudolph (-5) who still hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3, and he finished outside of the top-25 TEs in Week 15.  I was also way down on Evan Engram though (-12), but he somehow found himself in the top-5 against the Titans.  I guess he has way more value when OBJ sits (which he did).  If Beckham is out again, fire up Engram.  If not, Engram is likely a "sit". I'm done talking about tight ends for the year though.  Can we just move on?  Thanks... DEFENSES

I was highest on the Browns last week (+5) and lowest on the Titans (-5).  Cleveland still hasn't given up more than 23 points to an offense since Week 9, and they were a top-12 fantasy defense against the Broncos.  I guessed this game would end 17-13, and I was off by a field goal!  I'd fire them up again this week against the Bengals if you still have em.  As for the Titans, I just didn't think they'd be able to slow down the Giants the way they did the Jags and Jets the last couple of weeks.  The Giants had been scoring a ton of points lately, but Tennessee shut them DOWN.  This was a bad call, as the Titans were a top-5 defense and likely will be again this week.

This week I'm high on the Falcons (+10).  Did I mention they're playing the Panthers without Cam Newton?  Yeah, I think I did.  I always like starting defenses against young quarterbacks from ODU who have 5 career pass attempts.  It almost seems too easy.  I'm not down on a ton of defenses this week, but that might change come Sunday.  I'll try to get an update out on Sunday, and I hope to work on my FLEX rankings a bit between now and then. 

Good luck to everyone in Week 16!  

(Except you, Misciagna...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings

I know no one cares about anyone's fantasy leagues except their own, but I'm going to do a quick recap of my Week 14 league results anyway...

I went 1-1. 

OK. Recap over.  See, I told you it would be quick.  If you're still in your fantasy playoffs, great!  But don't pat yourself on the back just yet.  You still need to win a couple more to bring home a championship.

Let's get right into the Week 15 rankings, shall we?

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week, I had both Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott in my top-12 (+4 on Dak and +5 on Russell).  Wilson has been one of the hottest fantasy QBs in the second half of the season, and I wasn't betting against him on Monday Night Football.  He didn't do much of anything against the Vikings though, and his rushing yards are the only thing that kept him from being one of the worst options in Week 14.  This was a bad call on my part.  As for Dak, he faced that terrible Eagle secondary and I said he and Amari Cooper would connect a lot in this game.  That turned out to be an understatement because Dak found Amari for three touchdowns and finished as a top-5 fantasy QB.  I was down on Matt Ryan (-5), Mitch Trubisky (-7), and Marcus Mariota (-6).  I was wrong about Ryan, who needed garbage time but still somehow ended up as a top-10 fantasy QB.  As for Mariota and the Trubiscuit, both were outside of the top-25 and were two of the worst fantasy options at the QB position last week.

This week, I'm highest on Derek Carr (+10) who has actually been a TOP-10 fantasy QB over the last month.  He has multiple TD passes in 3 of those 4 games, and he hasn't thrown an interception since October 7th!  This week he faces a Cincinnati defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  Sure.  I'd definitely be a little nervous to start him this week.  You know, because it's Derek Freakin' Carr!  But I'm still ranking him inside my top-10.  You can't stop me.

I'm way down on Lamar Jackson this week (-8) because I'm a little nervous about Flacco likely being active this week.  I could see Joe getting plugged into the game to run a 2-minute drill and maybe more if he's successful.  If Lamar even struggles a little bit, I could see them pull the plug on him at halftime.  This scenario makes me nervous.  I'm also down on Philip Rivers (-6) because he hasn't been great at Arrowhead in recent memory.  Melvin Gordon is likely back this week, which could mean less passing for Rivers.  I just don't see him as a top-5 play this week, though you're likely starting him unless you somehow have a better option in the top-10.

RUNNING BACKS

I had LeGarrette Blount just inside my top-25 last week (+9 vs ECR), and I was also really high on Adrian Peterson (+8).  While both had double digit carries, neither did much with them and both RBs finished outside of the top-50.  I was highest on Stevan Ridley though (+11), and he found the endzone and was a serviceable FLEX play in Week 14. For the second week in a row, I was way down on James White (-9) and Dion Lewis (-8).  Those guys are FLEX plays at best and not RB2s for anymore.  Lewis had a handful of points but was still outside of the top-40, and James White wasn't even in the top-50 against Miami.  If you looked inside my top-25, I was low on Gus Edwards (-8).  He still had a decent game, but Kenneth Dixon is getting more and more involved in this offense.  I ranked Gus the Bus outside of my top-20, and he actually finished outside the top-30. I'm still high on Ridley this week (+10), but right now I'm highest on Chris Ivory (+15).  I fully expect LeSean McCoy to sit this week, and I think that means Ivory will get 15-20 touches against a leaky Lions defense.  I have him as a decent FLEX play this week (if McCoy sits), and I think he could have double digit fantasy points in that scenario.  OK, so I'm also super high on Melvin Gordon (+66) because I have him back to his usual top-5 play tomorrow night.  The ECR will catch up to my ranking if he's active like I expect.  I saw video of him warming up before the game LAST week before he was declared inactive, so I fully expect him back this week.  If he's not, obviously I'll remove him from my rankings.  But if he's playing, you're playing him.  And of course I'm playing against him in my money league this week (great timing!).  So yeah, I think he'll be a top-5 play. I'm down on Adrian Peterson (-5), and I don't see how you could feel good about starting anyone on the Redskins offense this week in Jacksonville.   I'm also not crazy about Peyton Barber (-7).  I realize he's the "bellcow" RB for the Bucs, but if he doesn't find the endzone, you're likely looking at a stat line of around 15 carries for 50 yards.  That's what I'm predicting for this week against a tough Baltimore run defense.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Looking at the top of my rankings last week, I was highest on Amari Cooper (+6) and lowest on Tyreek Hill (-7).  Cooper easily finished as the #1 WR in Week 14, so that was a nice pick.  But Tyreek had a good game against the Ravens and finished in the top-10 against a good defense.  If you looked a little lower in my rankings, I was high on Curtis Samuel (+7), Dante Pettis (+8), Anthony Miller (+11), and Dede Westbrook (+13).  Pettis and Westbrook finished in the top-20, but Samuel finished outside of the top-30 even though he had 80 receiving yards.  As for Miller, he was barely involved in the offense against the Rams, so that was just a bad call there.  I was lowest on Allen Robinson (-9) and Corey Davis (-8), as both had tough matchups.  Neither finished as a top-50 WR, so I was right on both guys. I have tons of large discrepancies with the ECR near the bottom of my WR rankings.  But if I stick near the top, I still like Dante Pettis as a top-25 WR this week (+8).  He smoked this same Seattle secondary just a couple of weeks ago, so I think he makes for a decent FLEX play again.  Once you get outside of my top-25 or so, I don't feel super confident in any of these guys.  I guess I'm most down on Alshon Jeffery and Kenny Golladay (-8 on each) who I don't see as top-25 WRs this week.  Alshon will be without Carson Wentz and is facing a tough Rams secondary.  Golladay hasn't looked great as the #1 WR, especially without guys like Golden Tate and Marvin Jones drawing attention away from him.  I think the Bills could shut him down. TIGHT ENDS If you looked at my top-15 TEs last week, I was high on Trey Burton (+5) and low on Jordan Reed (-5).  Neither finished as a top-25 TE though, but at least Reed had an excuse since he left in the first quarter with a foot injury.  If you looked further down my rankings, I was highest on Blake Jarwin (+17).  I had him as a top-30 play, and he actually finished in the top-15! This week, I have Chris Herndon in my top-12 (+6 vs ECR).  He's actually been pretty solid this season, and he's averaging 4 targets per game in his last 5 contests.  That doesn't seem like a lot, but for the tight end position, beggars can't be choosers.  He's an athletic guy who is facing a defense that gives up top-10 numbers to the tight end position this year.  Why not, right?  I'm down on Kyle Rudolph (-8) who hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 3.  That was also the last time he had more than 6.3 fantasy points.  Yikes.  I know the tight end position is rough this year, but I'm not ranking Rudolph in my top-12. DEFENSES

I've been high on the Saints defense nearly every week this season, and Week 14 was no different (+3).  They just feel like a top-12 fantasy defense every week to me, and they ended up in the top-12 against the Bucs.  I was highest on the Giants (+8) because they were facing Mark Sanchez and a bunch of backups on Washington's O-line.  New York had a defensive touchdown in a game they dominated.  If not for some garbage time points from Josh Johnson and company, the Giants likely would have been the #1 fantasy defense last week.  The #1 defense was the Bears though, and I was high on them too (+7).  Most experts were worried about them against the Rams, but I still had them as a top-12 play.  I hope they can keep it rolling this week against the Packers because I'm getting them back in my fantasy lineup.

I ended up lowest on the Seahawks (-5) who I thought might struggle to keep the Viking offense in check.  That couldn't have been further from the truth, and the Seattle D showed up in a big way on Monday night.  I was just all kinds of wrong about this game.

This week, I'm highest on the Browns (+6) and lowest on the Titans (-6).  Cleveland is still fighting for a playoff spot, and they've actually been playing fairly well the last month or so.  They haven't given up more than 23 points to an offense since Week 9, and that was against the Chiefs anyway.  Meanwhile, the Broncos haven't scored more than 24 points since Week 7, and they've only scored more than 24 twice all year.  This game feels like it'll be low scoring, maybe 17-13.  I think the Browns will put up some decent numbers on defense.  As for the Titans, I just don't think they'll be able to slow down the Giants the way they did the Jags and Jets the last couple of weeks.  The Giants have been scoring a ton of points lately and playing way better in the second half of the season.  I don't see Tennessee as a great option this week.

Good luck to everyone in Week 15!  

(Except you, Mike...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings

As far as fantasy football goes, I'm sure glad last week wasn't this week because it was a weird one.  I was already securely in my fantasy playoffs in both of my leagues, so Week 13 wasn't a critical one for me personally.  But for a lot of fantasy managers in a lot of leagues, people were relying on points from players who just didn't produce.  In my money league, I barely scored 50 fantasy points, and it was my lowest point total in any week since 2007 (believe me, I checked the history!).  There certainly were "studs" who produced (Mahomes, Gurley, Antonio Brown, McCaffrey, Kelce, etc.), but here are some crazy FACTS from Week 13...

• Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and Jared Goff each had less than 10 fantasy points.
• Josh Allen and Derek Carr were top-5 fantasy QBs.
• With his 2 touchdowns, Chase Edmonds outscored David Johnson by more than 10 fantasy points.
• James Develin also had 2 rushing touchdowns.  (Who?!?...Exactly.)
• Dante Pettis was the #1 fantasy WR, and rounding out the top-5 were Jaron Brown and Zay Jones.
• Here's a list of WRs with less than 5 fantasy points in Week 13: Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
• Gronk, Ebron, Njoku, and Olsen combined for less than 10 fantasy points.
• After losing 7 games in a row and looking terrible, Sacksonville D was the #1 fantasy play against what was a smoking hot Colts team.
• The Giants and Jets were also both top-5 fantasy defenses.  Um...what?

If you survived Week 13, congratulations.  Let's hope Week 14 is a little more predictable.

To the rankings!

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week, I was pretty high on Case Keenum (+6), but he stunk against the defense giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  I thought he'd be a top-15 QB against the Bengals, but he nearly finished outside of the top-20.  He still has amazing matchups left on his fantasy schedule (Niners, Browns, and Raiders), but if he can't do it against Cincy, I'm not that confident he can do it against those other teams.  I was down on Ryan Tannehill (-4), who was facing a Buffalo defense that gives up the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  I thought he might be one of the worst fantasy QBs last week, but he somehow managed 3 touchdowns even though he had just 137 passing yards.

This week, I have both Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott in my top-12 (currently +4 on each).  Wilson has been one of the hottest fantasy QBs in the second half of the season, and I'm not betting against him on Monday Night Football.  As for Dak, he faces that terrible Eagle secondary and I think he and Amari Cooper will connect a lot in this game.  I'm down on Ryan Tannehill again (-4), but I'm even lower on Matt Ryan (-6). The ECR has him as a top-12 play in Green Bay, but I'm not buying it.  Ryan has just 4 TD passes in his last 3 games combined, and he tends to play worse outside of domes.  I think Green Bay, Wisconsin qualifies as "outside of domes", and right now the forecast is showing the high temperature for Sunday as below freezing.

RUNNING BACKS

I was reluctantly high on Jordan Howard last week (+7), and I actually had him inside my top-25 against a Giant defense that had been giving up a TON of fantasy points to running backs every week since they traded away Snacks Harrison.  Well, the Giants gave up a ton of points to a Chicago RB, but it was Tarik Cohen.  Still, Howard had a solid game and got 8 fantasy points, which was good for the #32 RB in Week 13.  I was also high on Kenyan Drake (+7) who scored a touchdown and ended up just inside the top-25 where I ranked him.  I was high on Chris Thompson though (+7), but even a negative game script couldn't help him with McCoy and then Sanchez leading the offense.  I was +30 on Darren Sproles in that same game, and I didn't see why he wouldn't get some touches and end up in the top-50.  Well, he actually found the endzone and finished in the top-30 in his first action since Week 1. I was pretty low on Dion Lewis (-8) and James White (-9) last week.  Lewis had less than 7 fantasy points in each of the previous 3 weeks, and he kept that streak going.  White had less than 8 fantasy points in each of his previous two games, but he actually had a long catch and run just before halftime that put him into double digits.  If he doesn't have that "garbage time" play, he finishes where I ranked him.  I say "garbage time" because time expired and the Vikings essentially were playing for the Hail Mary and just made sure he didn't get into the endzone.  Either way, with Sony Michel and now Rex Burkhead back from injury, I'm not trusting James White the way I was earlier in the year. I have LeGarrette Blount just inside my top-25 this week (+10 vs ECR).  I don't feel great about ranking him so highly, but assuming Kerryon Johnson is still out, Blount should be a workhorse against a Cardinal defense that gives up the 2nd most points to RBs thi syear.  I'm still way down on James White this week (-10) and fairly low on Dion Lewis too (-6).  Again, those guys feel like FLEX plays and not RB2s anymore.  If you look inside my top-25, I'm pretty low on Gus Edwards (-7).  I worry about negative game script in this one, as the Ravens are playing at Arrowhead.  Edwards has exactly one catch in the 7 games he's played in, so he's really not involved in the passing game at all.  If the Ravens find themselves playing from behind, I think we could see a lot more Ty Montgomery, and Kenneth Dixon could get more involved as well.  I'm afraid the volume might not be there this week for Gus the Bus.

WIDE RECEIVERS
If you looked near the end of my top-25 last week, I was slightly high on Stefon Diggs (+7), Larry Fitzgerald (+7), and Josh Reynolds (+5).  In what was kind of a weird week, NONE of those guys finished in the top-25.  I was super high on Josh Doctson against a terrible Eagle secondary (+19 on Wednesday, just +9 on Sunday), but again...Mark Sanchez.  Doctson finished as a top-50 WR but not top-40 where I ranked him.  I was also really high on Devin Funchess (+18), who I had in my top-40.  He had just one catch, but it was in the endzone.  He finished right about where I ranked him, so that worked out pretty well. I was down on T.Y. Hilton (-12) who I had well outside of my top-20 WRs.  He's been mostly great when healthy this year, but he didn't have a great game against the Jags in Week 10 (3 catches for 77 yards and no touchdown).  I saw a similar stat line for him the second time around, and while he had more targets/catches, he ended up with exactly 77 yards (and no touchdown).  He finished outside of the top-30 WRs in Week 13, but I have him back up as a top-12 play this week and the rest of the season. If you look inside my top-30, I'm highest on Curtis Samuel (+11) and Dante Pettis (+13).  Samuel has had one bad game in his last 5, and he has at least 9.6 fantasy points in each of those other 4 games.  He's a playmaker who has a nose for the endzone, and I think he'll finish in the top-30 one way or another.  As for Pettis, he was the #1 fantasy WR last week and the #15 WR the week before that.  Remember that year Miles Austin had a couple of huge games but no one really believed in him?  This has the same feel to me for some reason.  Pettis is doing his work out of the slot, and the Broncos just lost Chris Harris to a broken leg.  I don't care if Goodwin and/or Garcon are back this week.  I think the matchup to exploit will still be with Pettis, and I could see him having double digit fantasy points again. I'm even lower than the ECR on Alshon Jeffery (-7), who has had less than 5 fantasy points in 5 straight games.  In Week 10, he had 4 catches for 48 yards against the Cowboys.  I kinda like Wentz in this game, but I see him having TDs to his tight ends and maybe Golden Tate again (not Alshon).  I'm also really low on Corey Davis (-12), and this is purely based on his matchup.  I'm not sure if he'll get Ramsey or Bouye, but it doesn't matter.  Both are shutdown corners and remember T.Y. Freakin Hilton's numbers against the Jags in two games this year?  I don't expect Davis to be anywhere near the top-20 in tomorrow night's game. TIGHT ENDS I stayed high on Jonnu Smith in Week 13 (+4) because he'd been a top-5 TE the previous 4 weeks.  For whatever reason, it was Anthony Firkser who caught a TD for the Titans and ended up as a top-5 play.  Jonnu had a mediocre stat line and ended up outside of the top-20.  I was highest on Rhett Ellison (+9) and Blake Jarwin (+13).  I had both as top-25 plays, but only Ellison produced as such. I was down on Austin Hooper (-8), and I pointed out that I really didn't trust anyone outside of my top-15 TEs.  This position has been a nightmare this year.  I've had Ertz in one league and Gronk/OJ Howard in another, so I've been able to navigate it fairly well.  But unless you have one of those situations or Kelce/Kittle, you're screwed!  As for Hooper, he'd had less than 5 fantasy points in four of his previous five games...so of course he scored a garbage time touchdown and finished as a top-5 tight end.  Ugh.  I really hate the tight end position this year. As for this week, I guess I'm recommending you consider Jimmy Graham (+5 vs ECR) because I have him in my top-10.  Graham is playing through a thumb injury, but he turned 11 targets into 50 receiving yards last week.  Good luck finding the possibility of those targets anywhere outside of my top-10.  I'm lowest on Gerald Everett this week (-7) who had a terrible game last week in Detroit.  He had three solid games before that stinker, but before that he didn't score more than 2.5 fantasy points in any games Weeks 1-8.  I'm trusting the bad games of Weeks 1-8 (& 13), and I'll say he finishes well outside of the top-15 this week.  But it's the tight end position, so who the hell knows?! DEFENSES

I went back through my weekly rankings and realized I've been high on the Saints defense nearly every week since Week 4.  And for 3 straight weeks now, I've been anywhere from +5 to +7 vs the ECR on this unit.  They finished as the #2 fantasy defense in Week 12, and I said you shouldn't rank them outside of the top-12 against the Cowboys on Thursday night.  They didn't win the game, but the defense was good and finished in the top-10.  I'm currently +5 versus the ECR this week as well.  They just feel like a top-12 fantasy defense every week to me.

While I continued to be high on the Saints, I also continued to be down on the Jags (-6).  They had just played the Colts in Week 10, and the defense was one of the worst options in that week.  If anything, I thought Week 13 could be worse with Fournette out and Cody Kessler starting at quarterback (lack of offense hurting the defense).  While I was right about the Jag offense being terrible, I didn't think they'd shut out Andrew Luck and the Colts.  As I mentioned in the intro, Sacksonville finished as the top fantasy defense in Week 13, so I was way off with that call.

This week, I'm highest on the Giants (+12) because they're facing Mark Sanchez and a bunch of backups on the O-line.  I know they're not a great defense, but I still think they'll be in the top-10 this week based on matchup alone.  I'm lowest on, well, my Redskins (-7).  I expect the offense to struggle, which could mean short fields for Saquon to run on.  Eli will certainly throw a pick and get sacked a couple of times, but I think the Giants could put up a lot of points in this game.  This matchup was 20-13 in Week 8, but the Giants have averaged nearly 30 points per game in their 4 games since then.

Good luck to everyone in Week 14!  

(Except you, Jimmy...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 13 Rankings

For most leagues, this is the last week before the fantasy playoffs start.  So if you're reading this, you're probably fighting for a playoff spot or at least positioning near the top of your league standings.  Either way, these rankings feel extra important this week, and they're going to be crucial for the next three weeks after that.  Also don't forget to check out my ROS Rankings, which I continue to update HERE (click the link!).

The bye weeks are over, so these rankings are jam packed.  Let's get right to em!

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week, I was highest on Baker Mayfield (+5) and lowest on Kirk Cousins (-5).  I was right about Baker, who lit up the hapless Bengal defense for 4 TDs and finished as the #1 fantasy QB in Week 12.  But I was wrong about Cousins, who had yet another big game against Green Bay and finished as the #3 fantasy QB.

This week, I'm pretty high on Case Keenum (+7), and I actually like him as a top-15 QB ROS as well.  He has amazing matchups the next four weeks (Bengals, Niners, Browns, and Raiders).  If you've been streaming the QB position, this is a guy worth a look this week and beyond.  If Baker Mayfield could be the #1 fantasy QB last week against Cincy, I don't see why Keenum couldn't easily be in the top-15.  I'm down on Ryan Tannehill this week (-5), who is facing a Buffalo defense that gives up the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  I realize he had a couple of TDs against the Colts last week, but have you forgotten about his last couple of games before his injury earlier this year?  He can be downright terrible at times, and I wouldn't trust him in this crucial week of the fantasy season.  I feel like his absolute ceiling is 20 fantasy points, and it's way more likely that he ends up with like 7 or 8 fantasy points against the Bills.

RUNNING BACKS

I was really high on Josh Adams when I released my rankings on Wednesday last week (+10), but that turned into just +4 on Sunday because there were late reports that the Eagles were going to give him more work.  Yeah, like I said on Wednesday.  Anyway, he was clearly the feature back against a porous Giant defense, and he finished as a top-12 fantasy RB.  I was also high on Chris Carson (+7), who I had as a top-20 RB.  He continues to get a ton of work, and he found the endzone against the Panthers.  He finished right about where I ranked him, which was just inside the top-20. I was really low on LeGarrette Blount though (-16), and that didn't work out on Thanksgiving day like I thought it would.  Of course he scored twice against a Bears defense that had only given up 2 rushing touchdowns all year (best in the league).  Whatever.  Sometimes things don't work out the way you think they will.  I was also down on Dalvin Cook (-10), but this dude is BACK.  And wouldn't you know it?  It's just in time because I get to face him in my money league this week.  I also get to face Eric Ebron, who is on a tear and now doesn't have to share targets with Jack Doyle.  I'm already in the playoffs in that league, but I sure would like a bye week.  That's what I'm playing for here in Week 13, and that playoff bye week is going to be tough to get. Speaking of this week, as of right now I'm highest on Jordan Howard (+9) and Chris Thompson (+13).  A lot can change as the week goes on, but as of right now it looks like Thompson could suit up against the Eagles on Monday Night Football.  Adrian Peterson has predictably slowed down in the second half of the season, and I fully expect the Redskins to be playing from behind in this game.  That game script could mean extra work for Chris Thompson (of course assuming he's healthy and plays 15-20ish offensive snaps).  As for Howard, this one takes a leap of faith because he's been pretty bad lately and I have him ranked inside my top-25 this week.  Howard's snap count has actually increased the last couple of weeks, and he faces a Giant defense that has been giving up a TON of fantasy points every week since they traded away Snacks Harrison.  I'm expecting Chase Daniel to play again this week, and I think he'll hand the ball off a lot to Jordan Howard. Since I'm high on Chris Thompson, I'm also down on Adrian Peterson (-10) for the reasons I mentioned above.  I'm also pretty low on Dion Lewis (-8) and James White (-8).  Lewis has less than 7 fantasy points in each of the last 3 weeks.  He has a better matchup this week against the Jets, but I still feel more comfortable ranking him as a FLEX rather than an RB2.  As for White, he has less than 8 fantasy points in each of his last two games.  Those last two games were also Sony Michel's first two games back from a two week absence due to injury.  It's clear the Patriots are going to give Michel the ball plenty, and to make matters worse for White, it looks like Rex Burkhead could also return from the IR this week against the Vikings.  We're likely back to a three-headed monster at RB in New England, witch Michel leading the way by a long shot as long as he's healthy.  James White could certainly have a good game or two down the stretch, but that's going to be tough to predict.  I'll be ranking him more as a FLEX rather than an RB2 because of that.

WIDE RECEIVERS
If you looked at my top-40 WRs last week, I was highest on Dontrelle Inman (+25) and John Ross (+19).  Inman has emerged as the #2 WR in Indy, but Luck mainly focused on TY and his tight ends against Miami.  I thought Inman would finish in the top-40, but he actually ended up with just 40 yards receiving and was outside of the top-50.  He has a nice floor but hasn't shown a ton of upside just yet.  Still, I'm going to continue to rank him fairly highly, especially with Jack Doyle now out for the year.  As for Ross, he found the endzone in his third straight week after getting healthy over his bye week.  I said he would finish in the top-30 against Cleveland, and he did just that.  I wasn't down on a ton of receivers near the top of my rankings last week, so let's get into who I like (and don't like) this week versus the ECR. If you look inside my top-25 I'm high on Denver's WRs: Sanders (+6) & Sutton (+4).  I already mentioned how I like Keenum against the Bengals, so I also like his receiving options.  Sticking in my top-25, I'm slightly high on Larry Fitzgerald (+5) and Josh Reynolds (+5).  The volume hasn't always been there, but Fitzgerald has scored 9 or more fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games.  He also faces a Green Bay defense that gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs and just gave up a ton of points to Thielen and Diggs last week.  As for Josh Reynolds, take a look at his last four games: Week 8 GB (no Cooper Kupp) 16 fantasy points 3 catches 42 yards 2 TDs Week 9 @NO (healthy Cooper Kupp) 0 fantasy points - - - Week 10 Sea (healthy Cooper Kupp) 0 fantasy points - - - Week 11 KC (no Cooper Kupp) 14 fantasy points 6 catches 80 yards 1 TD So yeah, he's been producing in that Cooper Kupp role.  I fully expect him to be a top-25 WR this week one way or another.  I'm also super high on Josh Doctson (+19).  He had 10 targets last week in Dallas, and Colt McCoy should throw the ball his way a lot on Monday night against a terrible Eagle secondary.  Right now the ECR has him outside of the top-50, but I think he could be a decent FLEX play this week.  I'm down on T.Y. Hilton (-9) who I have well outside of my top-20 WRs.  He's been mostly great when healthy this year, but he didn't have a great game against the Jags just a couple of weeks ago (3 catches for 77 yards and no touchdown).  I think he'll have a similar stat line this week, and he could even get shut down more than that.  It's possible Jalen Ramsey misses this game, but that just means Bouye will likely shadow T.Y.  I'd consider a different option at WR if I had one. TIGHT ENDS If you looked at my top-15 in Week 12, I was high on Jonnu Smith and Nick Vannett (+5 on each). Jonnu had been a top-10 TE in his last three games and had scored in two of them.  He had a big play on MNF and ended up in the top-5!  As for Vannett, he wasn't even a top-25 TE and now has just 2 targets in each of his last 3 games.  I was down on Kyle Rudolph (-6), and he was a top-25 TE midway through the first HALF!  Well, he did pretty much nothing in the second half and barely ended up in the top-20.  He's been a frustrating tight end this season after such a good year in 2017.  I'll continue to rank him around 15th or so for the rest of the season. This week, I'm still high on Jonnu Smith (+6).  He's been a top-5 TE the last 4 weeks, so why shouldn't I be ranking him in my top-12?!?  I'm down on Austin Hooper (-7), and I really don't trust anyone outside of my top-15 TEs.  Hooper has less than 5 fantasy points in four of his last five games, and I don't see how you can start him against a tough Ravens defense. DEFENSES

In Week 12, I was high on the Saints defense for a second week in a row (+7), and I'm actually high on them again this week (+7)!   Last week's game against Atlanta was expected to be high scoring, but I said it would be that way because of the Saints and not so much the Falcons.  I didn't even have them ranked that highly (16th), but I was still way higher than the experts on them.  They actually finished as the #2 fantasy defense in Week 12, and I don't see why you should rank them outside of the top-12 tomorrow night against the Cowboys.  This defense is on a roll, and I think they're startable every week.

I was also high on the Lions last week (+6), and I had them ranked 12th (right where they finished).  I was wrong about the Broncos though (-5), as they surprised me against the Steelers and finished as a top-5 unit.  So while I continue to be high on the Saints, I also continue to be down on the Jags versus the ECR (-8).  They just played the Colts in Week 10, and the defense was one of the worst options in that week.  Why would this week be any different?  If anything, I think it could be worse with Fournette out and Cody Kessler starting at quarterback.  I don't see this offense doing much in Week 13, and I think that'll cause the defense to be on the field more against a good offense led by Andrew Luck (who now has 3+ passing TDs in 8 straight games!).

Good luck to everyone in Week 13!  

(Except you, Terry...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings

I messed up with my rankings last week.  As usual, I published them on Wednesday, and then I updated them on Sunday morning (or at least I thought I did).  The problem was, I forgot to hit the "PUBLISH" button.

*FACE PALM EMOJI*

So I still had guys like Joe Flacco and Marvin Jones in my rankings.  My bad.  I thought I'd updated them, but I didn't.  I'll try my best to recap my picks versus the ECR last week, but so many of them will be off because of this screw up of mine.  I guess I'm still navigating this FantasyPros Expert Platform, but maybe I'll have it mastered by the end of the season.

Anyway, how about that Rams/Chiefs game, eh?!  What. A. Game.  I enjoyed watching that game SO much, but I was getting nervous toward the end because while I had Kareem Hunt in my money league, my opponent was chasing me down with Jared Goff in his lineup.  I obviously want to win my fantasy matchups every week, but I really didn't care that much at 11:30pm on Monday night.  That game was so fun to watch.  If I lost Week 11 because Goff threw another touchdown, so be it.  In the end, I squeaked out a win and got to enjoy one of the best NFL games I can ever remember watching.

Well, the Rams and Chiefs are finally on their bye this week (the last of the byes!).  So that means everyone else is playing this week, and all teams will be in action from Weeks 13 til the end of the season.  Just a couple more weeks until the fantasy playoffs...

To the rankings!

BYE: Chiefs & Rams

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
In Week 11, I continued to rank Andrew Luck as a top-5 QB, but the ECR nearly had him outside of the top-10.  I'm not sure why the experts were afraid of the Titans, but Luck continued to roll.  He's my #1 fantasy QB in my ROS Rankings, which I've updated HERE (click the link!).  I even added tiers.  I know.  So fun.  :)

I was also high on Mitchell Trubisky (+4 vs ECR), and I had him inside my top-10.  While I was wrong with this pick, he continued to get points with his legs and showed his high floor (which is about 15 fantasy points).  He kind of feels like this year's Deshaun Watson.  I sure wish Deshaun Watson would be this year's Deshaun Watson, but for now I'm stuck debating him versus Tom Brady in my money league on a weekly basis.  I have a feeling this will be a tough decision for the rest of the fantasy season, and I have both guys barely ranked in my top-12 this week.  Ugh.

Anyway, I was slightly down on Aaron Rodgers last week (-4 vs ECR), but he had a good game on Thursday night (albeit in a loss).  I thought he'd have less than 20 fantasy points in this game, but I was wrong here too.  Of course everyone expected that random tight end to catch like a 60 yard TD from him though, right?  Rodgers will likely be a top-10 fantasy QB the rest of the season, but I'll likely continue to often rank him outside of my top-5.

This week, I'm high on Russell Wilson (+6) and down on Kirk Cousins (-5).  Wilson always seems to be a slow starter, but he's been a top-5 fantasy QB in his last 6 games.  He also hasn't scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in any of those games, so he's been consistent too.  The ECR doesn't even have him as a top-12 play as of right now, and that seems crazy to me.  The guy just keeps putting up fantasy points, and I don't see why you'd sit him against the Panthers.  As for Cousins, if you look at his last 6 games, he's only scored more than 20 fantasy points once in that span.  He did have a big game in Green Bay in Week 2, but I'm not counting on that again with Dalvin Cook being more involved in the offense now.  Cousins might have a hard time being a top-10 fantasy QB in Week 12.

RUNNING BACKS

I was actually kind of high on T.J. Yeldon last week (+10), but that didn't pan out.  I thought the Jags would be playing from behind in this game, but that was not the case.  Their defense dominated for 3 quarters before falling apart and allowing the Steelers to get the win in Jacksonville. Yeldon didn't finish anywhere near a top-30 RB where I ranked him, and Carlos Hyde actually had more fantasy points than he did.  I was down on Ito Smith (-9) because I was starting to see him as more of a lower volume/TD-dependent guy.  He looked like that against the Cowboys, and he's now had less than 3 fantasy points in back to back weeks.  He finished outside of the top-40 RBs and can't really be trusted right now. As of right now, I'm really high on Josh Adams this week (+10).  Since trading Snacks Harrison to Detroit at the end of October, the Giants have given up big numbers to Adrian Peterson, Matt Breida, and Peyton Barber.  I think that continues this week with the Eagles seeing what the rookie can do for them.  I want to rank Adams even higher, but I'm just not that confident he gets the majority of the touches in that backfield.  I don't think he'll need it though.  If he gets 12-15 touches, I think he'll be a top-20 RB this week.  I'm really low on LeGarrette Blount (-16), as I don't even see him as a top-40 play tomorrow.  I expect Zach Zenner to be active against the Bears, and I only see Blount as having value if he somehow falls into the endzone.  The Bears have only given up 2 rushing touchdowns all year (best in the league), so I'm down on Blount.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I stayed high on Adam Humphries last week (+17), and he found the endzone yet again.  The experts continue to rank DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin well ahead of Humphries, but all of these guys should be in consideration with Jameis or Fitzmagic throwing the ball 40+ times a game.  I was also high on a pair of Joshes: Reynolds (+9) and Doctson (+14).  I said you'd want to start someone in this Rams/Chiefs game, and Reynolds contributed a touchdown (and a top-20 WR finish) to the 105 total points scored.  With Cooper Kupp out for the year, I expect Reynolds to have a ton of value in Weeks 13-16.  As for Doctson, he had found the endzone in back to back games, but that mini-streak ended in Week 11.  Alex Smith had a terrible leg injury in this game and is lost for the season, but Doctson has shown some chemistry with Colt McCoy.  I'm not dropping him down my rankings too much just yet. I was down on quite a few WRs versus the experts, but focusing on the top of my rankings, I was low on Alshon Jeffery (-8) and Emmanuel Sanders (-7) due to their cornerback matchups: Marshon Lattimore and Desmond King.  That turned out to be right because both receivers were held in check and finished outside of the top-30 WRs in Week 11, even though the ECR had both guys as top-20 plays.  I've moved both back up my rankings this week, as both have much better matchups. If you look beyond my top-50 WRs this week, I'm high on a lot of guys versus the ECR.  But if you focus on my top-40, I'm highest on Dontrelle Inman (+25) and John Ross (+29).  Inman has emerged as the #2 WR in Indy, and Luck has been on fire this season.  I expect him to have a solid day and finish in the top-40.  As for Ross, he's found the endzone in back to back weeks after getting healthy over his bye week.  A.J. Green might return this week, but even if he does, I think that might only help John Ross.  I expect him to get loose for a big play in this game and finish in the top-30.  I'm not down on a ton of receivers near the top of my rankings aside from Chicago WRs and some of the usual suspects (i.e. DeSean Jackson), so let's move on to the tight ends... TIGHT ENDS Last week I was high on Michael Roberts on Wednesday because I thought it was very possible Marvin Jones didn't play.  It turned out both Roberts and Jones were inactive...and I forgot to update my rankings to remove either of them.  Ugh.  Still kind of mad about that because it's going to impact my accuracy rankings.  Oh well.  Time to tighten up, Wheeler!  In the end, I wasn't really high/low on any tight ends versus the ECR, so let's talk about this week. In my top-15, I'm high on Cameron Brate (+4) and Jonnu Smith (+6).  I think the ECR will catch up on my ranking of Brate with the O.J. Howard news breaking late on Tuesday, but we'll see.  As for Jonnu, he's been a top-10 TE in his last three games and has scored in two of them.  Regardless of the Titan quarterback, I like for him to be a top-15 play on Monday night.  I'm down on Austin Hooper (-4) who I don't see as a top-10 TE against the Saints tomorrow night.  Hooper has scored more than 5 fantasy points just once in the last 5 weeks, and he didn't hit the 5 point mark against New Orleans in Week 3.  I don't trust him against a defense giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to the tight end position this year. DEFENSES

With 6 teams on a bye last week (and 5 of those teams being pretty crappy), it really impacted my D/ST rankings.  But I was high on the Saints (+9 on Wednesday, only +5 on Sunday) and down on the Jags (-9).  Basically I saw the Saints as a top-12 fantasy defense, and the Jags no where near that (and the ECR was the opposite).  I pointed out that New Orleans had held every opponent except the Rams to under 24 points in their previous 6 games, and the Eagles had only scored more than 24 points once this entire season.  That held up in Week 11, and the Saints were a top-5 fantasy defense.  As for the Jags, they actually had a good game against the Steelers and were a top-10 play themselves.  They're one of my top plays this week as they travel to Buffalo to face one of the most turnover-prone offenses in the entire league.

Back to the Saints defense for a minute though because I like them again versus the ECR this week (+8).  I realize this game is expected to be high scoring, but I think it could end up looking a lot like the game last week when they blew out Philadelphia.  I don't even have them ranked that highly (15th), but I think they could be a decent play tomorrow night if you want to have someone playing in this game.  I'm down on the Panthers (-4), but I don't have much to say about that.

I'm done.  Time to get ready for Thanksgiving!

Good luck to everyone in Week 12!  

(Except you, Carl...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings

It's crunch time, folks.  Most fantasy leagues start their playoffs in Week 14, so that means just three more regular season matchups to get into those playoffs.  There are 6 teams on a bye again this week, but there are some pretty crappy teams in there, so this week's bye is likely not hitting any one fantasy team too hard.  Next week is the last bye and just the Rams and Chiefs are off, but that's a lot of significant fantasy players sitting out during a potentially crucial week for a lot of fantasy teams.  Hey, everyone has to take a bye week!

I'm keeping the intro short and sweet this week.  Let's get to the rankings!

BYE: Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, 49ers

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week I was high on Andrew Luck (+5) because he always seems to end up in the top-10 no matter what defense he faces this year.  In fact, I knew the Jags were going to be without A.J. Bouye, so I liked him even more.  I also said Luck would find a way to find like 3 of his tight ends in the endzone, and that's basically what happened.  It doesn't matter who the Colts are playing.  Luck will get his tight ends some touchdowns.  I ranked him as the #8 QB in Week 10, and he finished 6th.

I stayed down on Jared Goff (-5) even though he'd been on fire the last couple of weeks.  He didn't have a great game in Seattle in Week 5, and I thought he'd finish well outside of the top-5.  I ranked him as my #9 QB, and he finished 10th.  This week, I'm facing him in my money league and the total points for MNF is like 64 (the highest NFL Vegas total since the 1980s or something).  I'm hoping for a huge Todd Gurley game, but I know Goff will get his.  I have him and Mahomes both as top-3 plays in that game.  Back to last week, I was also down on Ryan Fitzpatrick (-5) against my Redskins.  The ECR had him as a top-10 play, but I didn't.  He put up a lot of yards but failed to find the endzone.  Oh, and he was a turnover machine.  He finished outside of the top-20 fantasy QBs in Week 10, but he's still a startable fantasy QB while he has the job in Tampa.  You know the guy is going to sling it, and he has plenty of weapons in that offense. 

This week, I like Matt Ryan vs the ECR (+4) the same way I liked Luck last week.  If it weren't for Mahomes, we'd be talking about Matty Ice as having a great season (because he is).  He's the #2 fantasy QB and tends to put up better numbers at home.  Don't overthink this one.  Ryan should be a top-5 QB against the Cowboys.  I'm slightly down on Aaron Rodgers tomorrow night (-5), and I think it's very possible he doesn't finish as a top-10 fantasy QB in Seattle.  He's the #10 fantasy QB this season, and a lot of that is due to his big games in Weeks 5 & 6 against the Lions and 49ers.  Since his Week 7 bye, he's averaging less than 20 fantasy points per game.  I know it's Rodgers we're talking about here, but I fully expect less than 20 fantasy points again tomorrow night.

RUNNING BACKS

I was high on Alfred Morris last week (+7) because I thought he might vulture a touchdown from my guy Matt Breida.  Well, this was Breida's coming out party, and he actually stayed healthy for the entire game!  Morris wasn't even a top-50 RB against the Giants.  I was way down on Corey Clement in Week 10.  I was actually -14 versus the ECR on Wednesday because Darren Sproles was expected back, but then Sproles had a setback during practice so I moved Clement back up slightly.  Still, I was -9 vs the ECR on Clement because I still thought Smallwood and Adams would continue to get the most work, and I was right.  Clement appears to be the odd man out in this RB rotation, and he also finished well outside of the top-50 running backs last week.  I expect Josh Adams to get more touches starting this week in New Orleans. As for Week 11, I'm actually kind of high on T.J. Yeldon (+8).  I realize Fournette is back, but Yeldon is still in the mix and I think could be more involved this week if the Jags find themselves playing from behind against the Steelers.  I have him nearly as a top-30 RB, which would mean he's in FLEX consideration.  Two guys who I'm not considering as much as a FLEX are Ito Smith (-9) and Austin Ekeler (-8).  The ECR has them more in the range where I've ranked Yeldon, but I see them as lower volume/TD-dependent guys.  I think someone like Yeldon will get more touches than both of those guys and has a better chance to put up top-30 numbers in Week 11.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I stayed high on Adam Humphries in Week 10 (+13) because you have to ride a hot streak.  He didn't have a great game, but he did finish ahead of even where I ranked him (which was 40th).  I was also really high on Allen Robinson (+14).  The ECR had him at 40th, but I saw him as close to a WR2 against Detroit's banged up secondary.  Well, I didn't have him high enough because he went over 100 yards and had a pair of scores.  He was nearly the #1 fantasy WR in Week 10.  I was down on a lot of WRs versus the ECR because that's just kind of how it works out once you get past the top-30 or so guys.  I'm not going to take the time to mention each one of them here because it's kind of a mixed bag down there. This week, I'm still high on Humphries (+17).  I don't mind continuing to be right because Fitz is throwing the ball his way.  He will get points.  If you look a littler higher in my rankings, I'm also high on a pair of Joshes: Reynolds (+12) and Doctson (+15).  Cooper Kupp is out for the year, and Josh Reynolds will get plugged into the slot for him.  When Kupp was out Week 8, Reynolds had 2 TDs against the Packers.  I'm not saying that'll happen again, but I don't see why it couldn't.  You're going to want to start someone in this Rams/Chiefs game, and Reynolds could still be out there on your waiver wire right now.  Pick him up!  As for Doctson, he's found the endzone in back to back games and continues to get those red zone looks with Richardson and Crowder sidelined.  The Redskins haven't been scoring a lot of points, so this feels like more of a dice roll, but he could make it three straight. I'm down on quite a few WRs versus the experts, but I'll focus on the top of my rankings.  I'm low on Alshon (-8) and Emmanuel Sanders (-8).  The ECR has both guys as top-20 plays, but I think both could struggle with their matchups.  Jeffery could face a lot of Marshon Lattimore (who most people know), and Sanders will see plenty of Desmond King (who many people may not know but has played really well this year).  It's that simple.  I'm just downgrading both slightly based on their likely cornerback matchups. TIGHT ENDS I ranked Jordan Reed as my #2 TE in Week 9 (+7 vs ECR), but he finished outside of the top-20 and actually had fewer fantasy points than Vernon Davis.  I was playing against Reed in Week 10 in my money league though, so I doubled down and left him in my top-5.  I just felt like he was guaranteed to find the endzone (especially against Tampa Bay), but he did not.  I don't own him in any leagues, but I'd be frustrated if I did.  He continues to get a lot of targets, but he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1!  I was highest on James O'Shaughnessy though (+11), while the ECR had him way down at #37.  You probably weren't starting him in any leagues, but he did finish as a top-20 TE in Week 10. I'm really high on Michael Roberts this week (+12) because I think it's very possible Marvin Jones doesn't play and Golladay can't get all of the red zone looks, can he?  I think Roberts will get 3 or 4 targets and could fall into the end zone against the Panthers.  I know it's tough to trust a guy with only 84 receiving yards on the year, but I still think he should be ranked way higher than his ECR (which is currently 32nd).  I'm down on a couple of guys this week, but they're only around #20 for the experts anyway, so I won't waste my time talking about them.  I know there are 6 teams on a bye this week, but you should still be able to start someone ranked in my top-15 or so.  But if not, give Roberts a shot if Marvin Jones is out! DEFENSES

I had the Chargers in my top-5 last week (+4 vs ECR on Wednesday, but only +1 on Sunday).  They held the Raiders to just 10 points in Week 5, and that was with Amari Cooper and a healthy Marshawn Lynch (neither of which are still a thing in Oakland).  They held Oakland to just 6 points last week, and they finished as the 2nd-best fantasy defense in my money league.  I wasn't super high on any other defenses, so I'll just say I nailed that pick (even though the ECR ended up nailing it too).  I was down on the Packers (-4) because they have been dealing with a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  I did say I could very well be wrong about this one because Brocktober is now continuing into November, and I was very wrong about this one.  Green Bay showed up and finished as a top-5 fantasy defense.

I've mentioned a couple of times how there are 6 teams on a bye this week, and 5 of those teams are pretty bad.  That really impacts my D/ST rankings this week because I tend to rank teams facing those bad teams very highly.  But this week you don't get to just start whoever is facing the Bills (that didn't work out so great last week anyway, did it?).  I'm actually high on the Saints this week (+9) and down on the Jags (-9).  After finishing as the top fantasy defense last season, Sacksonville has been pretty disappointing this year.  They're currently not even a top-20 fantasy defense, and they've been among the worst units in the league the last 5 weeks.  This week, they face a good Steeler offense that gives up the 4th fewest fantasy points to fantasy defenses this year.  I just can't see the Jags anywhere near a top-12 play this week. 

As for the Saints, they've held every opponent except the Rams to under 24 points in their last 6 games.  Drew Brees and the offense is clicking, and that only helps the guys on the defensive side of the ball.  The Eagles have only scored more than 24 points once this entire season, and that was Week 6 against the Giants.  I think this game will end up something like 31-20 (Saints), and I like for New Orleans to play well on defense and put up some decent fantasy points.

Good luck to everyone in Week 11!  

(Except you, Bird...)

Cheers,

Bart