2018 Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings

I made two trades in my money league last week, and I made both of them a week too early!  One of the trades was Tom Brady for Cooper Kupp straight up.  I was getting worried about Deshaun Watson because he'd been struggling lately and dealing with an injury, and Brady felt like a sure thing on Monday Night Football.  Little did I know that for the second week in a row, I'd have someone blow up on my bench.  In Week 7, it was Marlon Mack.  I didn't make that mistake again in Week 8 (I got Mack in my lineup).  But I did sit Watson, and he had 5 touchdowns against the Dolphins on Thursday night and was easily the #1 fantasy QB in Week 8.  Meanwhile, Brady played game manager and got an easy win in Buffalo, but that didn't help me from a fantasy perspective.  The other trade I made was fine, but Michael Thomas (who I traded for) didn't do much more than Jarvis Landry (who I traded away).  Again, game script was the culprit.  I hope better days are ahead for both Brady and Thomas, as both are in my lineups again this week and likely the rest of the season.

Speaking of this week, there are six teams on a bye, so these rankings may prove more important than ever.  Also don't forget about my ROS rankings, especially when considering players in trade offers.  My rest of season rankings got me thinking about an even older post I made before the season started.  I wanted to take a look at some of my preseason predictions here at the midway point and see how they're looking.  If you want to jump straight to the rankings, feel free to do so (if you haven't already).

Before the season started, I asked several hypothetical questions and answers.  Here are a few of them in a very condensed form...

Question: Who is this year's Alvin Kamara?
Preseason Answer: Kalen Ballage
Midway Point Answer: Phillip Lindsay

Q: Who is this year's JuJu Smith-Schuster?
Preseason Answer: D.J. Moore
Midway Point Answer: Calvin Ridley (...though I think Moore still has a shot, and I'm also hoping Courtland Sutton becomes the real answer because I just added him off the waiver wire!)

Q: Who is this year's Carson Wentz?
Preseason Answer: Marcus Mariota
Midway Point Answer: Patrick Mahomes (though to be fair, he had nowhere to go but UP)

Q: Who is this year's Alex Collins?
Preseason Answer: Tarik Cohen
Midway Point Answer: Tarik Cohen

So a couple of potential accurate predictions and a couple not-so-accurate.  I also made some rough predictions of what the top-12 at each position could look like after the 2018 season (with some bold picks sprinkled in).  These weren't my preseason rankings, but they factored in some of the guys I was high/low on before the season started.  Let's see how I'm doing there, shall we?

QBs
Tom Brady
Cam Newton
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Russell Wilson
Deshaun Watson
Matthew Stafford
Marcus Mariota
Philip Rivers
Jared Goff
Kirk Cousins
Matt Ryan

There's a lot of football yet to be played, but I'm feeling pretty confident about a good portion of this list.  I didn't see Mahomes or Trubisky coming, but I did have Andrew Luck as a BOLD potential top-5 finisher.  Sure, I also had Mariota in my top-10, but let's focus on the rest of the list, shall we?  As it stands, I have 8 correct out of the current top-12.  And that includes "misses" like Rodgers and Wilson who are just on the edge and have already had their bye week.  It's very possible I could nail 10 out of the 12 at this position.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott
David Johnson 
Le'Veon Bell
Saquon Barkley
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon 
Alvin Kamara
Derrius Guice
Dalvin Cook
Jay Ajayi 
Kareem Hunt
Sony Michel 

If you plug in James Conner for Le'Veon Bell, my top-12 doesn't look too bad.  It has a bunch of injured guys near the end of the list (Guice/Cook/Ajayi), but otherwise it's solid.  I was right to leave Fournette and Freeman off the list, and I feel like Sony Michel could still sneak into the 12 spot if he gets healthy and finishes strong.

WRs
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Davante Adams
Antonio Brown
T.Y. Hilton
Doug Baldwin
Julio Jones
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
Chris Hogan
Randall Cobb
Michael Thomas
Sammy Watkins

I made some bold choices with this list, and so far I've been pretty wrong about ranking Diggs over Theilen in the preseason.  But realistically, both could end up in the top-12 this year!  I was super wrong about Hogan and Cobb, but Sammy Watkins could crack this list if he stays healthy.  He and T.Y. Hilton have a lot of catching up to do, but both are still possibilities.  Doug Baldwin in the top-5 was way off, but Davante Adams as the #2 fantasy WR was a bold pick during the preseason.  He has a good chance to finish right up there.

TEs
Zach Ertz
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
Kyle Rudolph
Jordan Reed
Delanie Walker
Travis Kelce
Greg Olsen
Trey Burton
Antonio Gates
Hayden Hurst
Charles Clay

I drafted Gronk as the first tight end off the board in my money league (who wasn't already a keeper), but I wasn't super confident about him to finish the season as the #1 tight end.  It looks like it'll be either Ertz or Kelce to have that honor, and the rest of my list is just mostly wrong.  It's so hard to predict the tight end position, which makes Gronk/Ertz/Kelce that much more valuable in my opinion.  I hope Gronk can turn it on in the second half of the season, but I don't feel great about it after watching him lumber around the field through 8 weeks.


Below were my real football predictions for the season.  My Super Bowl prediction is looking pretty solid, but it would appear as though I did not give the Saints and Chiefs enough credit.  Otherwise, the rest of my predictions are still quite plausible.  I sure hope I'm wrong about the NFC East!

AFC East: New England Patriots

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Houston Texans

AFC West: Denver Broncos

AFC Wild Card1: Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC Wild Card2: LA Chargers

[Patriots over Steelers in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

NFC West: LA Rams

NFC Wild Card1: Green Bay Packers

NFC Wild Card2: Detroit Lions

[Rams over Falcons in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: Patriots over Rams

I usually don't do long intros, but it felt like a good time to do a little check on my preseason predictions.  Some actually aren't half bad!  But now let's get into the Week 9 rankings!


BYE: Cardinals, Bengals, Colts, Jaguars, Giants, Eagles

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week I was high on Blake Bortles (+6) because I believed in London Blake Bortles.  He usually plays great when he's across the pond, but that was not the case.  But you know what?  Bortles doesn't have to play great in order to be a decent fantasy QB.  I said he should easily be a top-20 fantasy QB, and he finished 14th.  If you're going to plug Bortles into your lineup, just don't watch the game.  But more often than not, he will get you some fantasy points.  I was also high on Russel Wilson (+4), and he finished with 3 TDs on his way to a top-10 finish (his ECR was 14).  I was down on Jared Goff (-4) and Kirk Cousins (-4) because I didn't see either as a top-5 play like the other experts did.  While Goff did finish in the top-5, Cousins finished outside of the top-10.

I'm still high on Russell Wilson versus the experts (+4), as I see him as a top-10 play and the ECR doesn't.  If you're digging deeper into my rankings for a bye week fill-in, I actually like Flacco at home against the Steelers (+5).  He's put up big numbers against them recently, and I think he'll have a pair of touchdowns in this game.  I'm down on Baker Mayfield (-4).  Sure, he'll have to throw a ton in order to keep up with the Chiefs likely scoring a ton of points, but I think that'll just lead to turnovers.  I don't see him as a great play against an improved Kansas City defense.

RUNNING BACKS

I was really high on Kenjon Barner (+16 on Wednesday, +7 on Sunday), but he was barely involved in the gameplan against Buffalo.  I got Belitricked.  I was down on Javorius Allen (-8), who hadn't had more than 6 fantasy points since Week 3.  His role has been extremely reduced the last couple of weeks, and that actually continued against the Panthers except for his touchdown reception.  He had zero carries and just 3 catches, but the touchdown landed him inside the top-30.  With Ty Montgomery now a Raven, Buck Allen can be safely dropped in all leagues (if you hadn't waived him already). This week, I'm down on Mark Ingram and Nick Chubb (-7 on each guy).  I already mentioned how I'm not crazy about the Browns in this game, and I think game script will work against Chubb.  Assuming Cleveland is playing behind this whole game, I don't see how you can expect the rookie to be a top-12 RB this week.  I fully expect Duke Johnson to be more involved in this game, especially with the running backs coach promoted to offensive coordinator this week.  The Rams/Saints game should be high scoring, but I don't think relying on Ingram to have a touchdown is wise.  He's not a top-15 fantasy RB for me this week.  I'm highest on Jamaal Williams (+12) because I don't expect Aaron Jones to get all of the work now that Montgomery is in Baltimore.  I think this will be closer to a 50/50 split, and Williams could get plenty of touches in a high scoring affair against New England.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I was high on Danny Amendola when I posted my rankings on Wednesday (+10), but that turned into just a +3 vs ECR on Thursday.  Another guy I was high on though was Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+10).  Even with Allison and Cobb back in the lineup, it was MVS who caught a touchdown and finished in the top-30 for his third game in a row.  I was down on DeSean Jackson (-8), and that ended up being wrong.  I pointed out that he's definitely been more boom than bust this season, but I thought he was due for a dud. Outside of his 60 yard touchdown, he had just two catches for 8 yards.  Still, that big play put him in the top-20, and I moved him way up with Ryan Fitzpatrick back at QB. I'm still ten spots higher than the experts on Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and coincidentally I'm way down on Randall Cobb (-16).  I just don't trust Cobb as the 2nd or even 3rd option in that offense right now because he's more like option 4 or 5.  I'm super high on Adam Humphries this week (+24).  He had a ton of targets in Week 8, and I think he belongs in the top-50.  Hopefully you're not digging that deep for your FLEX play, but maybe he could make a decent DFS play.   TIGHT ENDS I stayed high on Chris Herndon (+6) and he caught a TD for his third game in a row on his way to a top-15 finish.  I was also fairly high on C.J. Uzomah though (+4), and I even had him in my top-10.  However, he turned a great matchup into exactly zero catches for zero yards.  I was also high on Ed Dickson at the last minute (+10), and he had 54 yards and a touchdown.  He finished in the top-10 and could be more involved in this offense now that he's healthy.  I down on Rob Gronkowski in Week 8 (-7), and I even started O.J. Howard over him in my money league.  That was by far the right call, as Gronk finished outside of the top-15 and is proving to be a huge second round bust for me in my money league.  I'm probably going to plug him into my lineup this week though and hope that he and Brady make some magic together against Green Bay. I only ranked 20 tight ends this week, and I'm not super high/low on any.  But I guess I'm kind of high on Jordan Reed (+4).  He's been getting a huge target share in this offense.  He just hasn't produced great fantasy numbers.  I think that changes this week against a terrible Falcon secondary.  The Redskins should find a way to get Jordan into the endzone, and I think he will be in the top-5. DEFENSES

Last week, most experts had the Cardinals as a top-10 play, but I actually had them in my top-5 (+4 vs ECR).  They didn't quite finish there, but they were damn close and finished 8th.  When I saw that Khalil Mack was out for Week 8, I actually dropped the Bears a bit in my rankings (-5 vs ECR).  I left them in my top-10, but the ECR had them as the #2 fantasy defense.  I just couldn't see that without Mack in the lineup, and I was right because they finished outside of the top-12.

The Raiders are a bad defense, but the 49ers aren't a great offense either.  C.J. Beathard is questionable with a wrist injury tomorrow night, so it's either him or undrafted rookie Nick Mullens running the show.  I like for Oakland to get some turnovers and maybe even a pick 6, so I currently like them 7 spots higher than the ECR.  I'm down on the Dolphins (-7) who looked absolutely terrible against the Texans last week.  The Jets are coming to town this week, but Sam Darnold did a pretty good job taking care of the ball against a tough Bears defense last week.  I like for him to continue that trend and not throw a bunch of picks against the Dolphins.  I also think the Jets could put up a lot of points in this game like they did against the Broncos and Colts.

Good luck to everyone in Week 9!  

(Except you, Mike...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

Last week, I had a tough decision to make with the 5 running backs in my money league.  I had to choose three of the following to put in my lineup: Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, Marlon Mack, or Tarik Cohen.  Hunt was a no-brainer, and he ended up finishing as the #1 fantasy RB in Week 7.  However, I started Breida over Marlon Mack, and Mack finished as the #2 fantasy RB in Week 7 (while on my bench).  Meanwhile, Breida had negative points, reinjured his ankle, and didn't even play in the second half.  Luckily I chose correctly between Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen because while both put up solid fantasy numbers, had I started Howard instead of Cohen, I would've lost my matchup by less than a point!

Assuming both are healthy, I'm going to plug in Mack for Breida this week.  And I actually made a trade that involved shipping off Jordan Howard, so I'll no longer need to decide between him and Tarik Cohen.  Hopefully I don't regret the decision to trade Howard, but time will tell how it all shakes out.

For now, let's get right to the rankings!

BYE: Falcons, Cowboys, Chargers, Titans

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week I stayed high on Carson Wentz, but my +6 vs the ECR on Thursday turned into just +2 on Sunday.  Still, I said he'd finish as a top-10 fantasy QB for the third week in a row, and he did.  I'm backing off a bit on Wentz this week as he faces the Jags, but he's in the top-10 in my ROS rankings, and he should be a mainstay near the top of my weekly QB rankings after Philly's bye week.  I was also high on Luck and Trubisky last week (+4 vs ECR on each), and they both finished in the top-3.  I was slightly down on Kirk Cousins (-4), and he finished outside of the top-12 (nowhere near the top-5 where the ECR had him).

This week, I'm high on Blake Bortles (+6).  But this is not the Jacksonville Blake Bortles.  This is the London Blake Bortles.  The guy plays out of his mind when he's across the pond, and I don't think this week will be any different against an Eagle defense that is 7th-worst against the pass.  I realize he got benched last week against Houston, but I think that'll be a wake-up call for Bortles.  He could be a sneaky play this week and should easily be a top-20 fantasy QB.  I'm down on Jared Goff (-5) because he hasn't cracked the 20 fantasy point mark since Week 4.  He has a good matchup, but he'll also be without Cooper Kupp for a second straight week.  I just don't see him as a top-5 play this week like the other experts do.


RUNNING BACKS

I continued to be down on Derrick Henry last week (-5), and I'm not mad about him finally finishing as a top-40 RB for the first time this season. I'd still recommend Dion Lewis over Henry ROS, but neither looks to be a must-start for the foreseeable future.  I was high on Tarik Cohen (+7), and he finished as a top-12 RB for his third game in a row.  I was also pretty high on Ito Smith (+9 on Thursday, but only +5 on Sunday).  I guess the other experts started to see his value as well, but he was not a viable fantasy play in Week 7.  Better days are likely ahead after his Week 8 bye though, so don't give up on him just yet! This week, I'm really high on Kenjon Barner (+16).  I don't think anyone expects Sony Michel to play on Monday night, and I don't think Gronk will either.  That leaves Barner to get a decent amount of carries and likely goal line work.  I think double digit fantasy points could be in his future, and he could make a decent FLEX play if you're looking for someone last minute.  I'm down on Javorius Allen (-8), who hasn't had more than 6 fantasy points since Week 3.  His role has been extremely reduced the last couple of weeks, and I'm not sure how you could trust him.  I'd much rather start someone like Trenton Cannon or Nyheim Hines if I had to because I feel like both are at least guaranteed some work in the passing game.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I was high on another Falcon on MNF last week: Mohamed Sanu (+19).  He had double digit fantasy points in each of his previous 4 games, but that streak ended in Week 7.  I was down on Corey Davis though (-11), and he had his worst game of the year against the Chargers.  He had just 1 fantasy point and will also be tough to trust moving forward. I'm pretty high on Danny Amendola this week (+10) because I feel like someone has to catch the ball tomorrow night.  I expect Houston to get up early and keep the lead in this game, so I think Brock will continue to pepper Amendola with targets.  I like him as a borderline FLEX play in Week 8.  I'm down on DeSean Jackson (-10), who is the definition of a boom or bust wide receiver.  He's definitely been more boom than bust this season, and he's averaging 13 fantasy points/game.  I just feel like he's due for a game with 1 catch for 30 yards (and that's it).  I could easily be totally wrong here, but I'm going with my gut on this one. TIGHT ENDS I continued to be down on Antonio Gates in Week 7 (-4), and after just 3.5 fantasy points combined in his last 3 games, he should be on the waiver wire in 100% of leagues.  I was high on Evan Engram in my initial rankings (+8), but that turned into just +2 on Sunday, so I'll dig deeper for some comparisons vs the ECR.  I kind of liked Gerald Everett and Chris Herndon (+7 on each guy).  With Cooper Kupp out, I thought Everett would see extra targets against a Niner defense that was giving up the 4th most points to opposing tight ends this season.  Unfortunately, that didn't pan out and Everett did less than nothing against San Francisco.  On the other hand, Herndon caught a touchdown for the second week in a row and finished as a top-10 play. I'm not sure if Herndon will make it three games in a row with a TD, but I do like him again versus the ECR (+6).  I'm also high on C.J. Uzomah (+5), who faces a Bucs defense giving up the MOST points to opposing tight ends this year.  I'm down on Jeff Heuerman (-8) because I have a hard time trusting him as a top-25 play this week.  That's digging pretty deep into my tight end rankings though, so hopefully you're not looking that far down anyway. DEFENSES

Last week, I liked the Dolphins (+6), but they gave up a ton of points to the Lions and were a terrible fantasy option.  I didn't like the Cowboys though (-6), and they finished almost exactly where I ranked them (20th).  They'll have some good weeks and some bad weeks after their bye, but they didn't do much against Washington.  Alex Smith just might game manage his way to a 9-7 record and maybe even a division title.  It's still too early to tell, but I'm cautiously optimistic after 7 weeks of the season.

This week, most experts have the Cardinals as a top-10 play, but I actually have them in my top-5 (+5 vs ECR).  The Niners imploded last week against the Rams, so we'll see if that was due to LA's tough defense or Beathard's ineptitude.  It's probably a little of both, but I'm doubling down on the latter.  If I'm down on any defense, I guess it's the Jets (-5).  They didn't look good last week, and they've now given up 71 points in their last two games combined.  This week they travel to Chicago to take on a Bears offense that is running on all cylinders right now.  I'd stay away from Gang Green in this matchup.

Good luck to everyone in Week 8!  

(Except you, Andy...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

With the 4-team bye weeks finally here, you might not have a lot of decisions to make when it comes to setting your lineup over the next few weeks.  Or if you're like me in my money league, you might have 6 running backs...and you want to start all of them!  Luckily I was able to trade one of them away for a quality receiver, so I'll be down to five: Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, Marlon Mack, and Tarik Cohen.  I'm definitely starting Hunt, and I really like what Breida has been doing this season, so he'll be in my lineup if he's healthy.  I'm also fine letting Mack sit on my bench (even though he looks like the clear workhorse now that he's healthy again).  So that causes a dilemma for me between Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.

These tough decisions often pop up when you're setting those lineups on Sundays.  Do you go with the safe play or the homerun hitter?  Do you start the guy who has proven he can put up fantasy points consistently over the last couple of seasons or the guy who has looked way better the last couple of games?  I often go with the "safe" play (in this case, Jordan Howard), but this week I'm having a hard time with these two RBs who are on the same team and trending in opposite directions.  Are you having a similar debate between Lamar Miller and Ito Smith?  Keenan Allen versus Tyler Boyd?  It's tough to start the young guy who has been producing, but all you can really do is try to be confident in our decision and commit.  Oh, and hope for the best.

I'll probably go with my gut and roll with Cohen.  I'll be disappointed if he has 5 fantasy points and Howard has 15, but it just feels much more likely that the opposite will play out.  Who knows?  Maybe they'll both have like 10 points and it won't really matter.

By the way, I've been updating my ROS rankings sort of randomly as I remember, so I wanted to remind you with that link.  It can be a good reference, especially if you're thinking about trades over the next couple of weeks.  I know I will be...

Enough talk.  Let's do the rankings!

BYE: Packers, Raiders, Steelers, Seahawks

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week I got back on track with my quarterback picks versus the ECR.  I was high on Carson Wentz (+6 vs ECR), and he ended up as a top-10 fantasy QB against the Giants.  I was also high on Sam Darnold (+4) who I said could finish in the top-20 against a weak Indy defense.  Well, he nearly finished in the top-10 as well.  I was down on Ryan Tannehill (-5 vs ECR), and he didn't even play.  So technically I was right, but I ranked him so low because I thought the Dolphins would struggle against a tough Bear defense.  They did not.  Mr. Brocktober led them to a shocking victory in Miami, but I'm still going to chalk this up in the win column due to a technicality.  :)

I'm still high on Wentz this week (+6 vs ECR), and I think he'll finish as a top-10 fantasy QB for the third week in a row.  In fact, I have him inside my top-5 this week against Carolina because I think he'll keeps this Eagle offense rolling.  I'm not really down on any QBs too much this week, so let's move on to the RBs!




RUNNING BACKS

I continued to be down on Derrick Henry in Week 6 (-8 vs ECR), and he nearly finished outside of the top-50.  I'm still down on Derrick Henry this week (-5), but I'm not down more than 5 spots on any other RBs.  So I'll just remind you that Henry hasn't finished as a top-40 RB all season.  Look elsewhere unless you're just a glutton for punishment. Going back to last week, I was high on a guy on my roster in my money league: Marlon Mack (+24 on Thursday, still +10 on Sunday).  I didn't starting him in Week 6, but I did say he could get the majority of touches against the Jets.  He got a decent workload even playing from behind the whole game, and he finished as a top-25 RB.  This week, I already mentioned how I'm high on Tarik Cohen (+9), but I'm also really high on Ito Smith (+9).  He's scored in three straight games, and his workload should continue with Devonta Freeman now placed on the IR.  I definitely see him as more of a FLEX consideration when compared to the ECR this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Last week I stayed high on Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+26), and he had double digit fantasy points for the second week in a row.  He nearly cracked the top-25 WRs, so I nailed that pick.  I stayed down on Doug Baldwin (-13), and he got plenty of targets against the Raiders and turned that into 91 yards.  Still, the ECR ranked him at #30, and he finished a few spots lower than that. This week, I'm high on another Falcon on MNF: Mohamed Sanu (+15).  Of course this is assuming he's healthy, but the guy has double digit fantasy points in each of his last 4 games.  He's also caught touchdowns in 3 of those 4 contests.  I think if anyone might sit this game out, it's Calvin Ridley.  The Falcons may want to rest him up through their bye week.  As long as Sanu is healthy enough to play, I think he'll get 5-7 targets and find the endzone against the Giants. I'm down on Corey Davis this week (-11 vs ECR), and I don't see him finishing in the top-30.  This Titan offense is struggling, and Davis has just had the one big game this season.  In fact, he has almost he exact same number of points in that one game as he does in the other five combined.  I don't see how you can trust him and this offense right now. TIGHT ENDS Last week I was high on Niles Paul (+9 on Thursday, only +5 on Sunday) and down on Antonio Gates (-7).  Paul was heavily involved in the Jag offense when ASJ went down in Week 5, but it was Paul getting injured early against the Cowboys in Week 6.  He wouldn't return, so he wasn't able to do anything from a fantasy perspective.  As for Gates, he didn't do much better though (one catch for 5 yards).  I know the tight end position is a wasteland, but Gates isn't startable.  Hopefully you picked up Uzomah or Brate last week because both of those guys could be top-15 plays the rest of the season. Speaking of Brate, I would like to point out that I was high on both Tampa Bay tight ends in Week 6: Brate (+4) and Howard (+7).  Both were top-12 options, and Jameis can support production for both guys moving forward.  This week, I'm still down on Antonio Gates (-7).  I just can't rank him in my top-20.  I'm high on Evan Engram (+8), assuming he's healthy enough to play Monday night as well.  If you want to go deeper into my rankings, I kind of like Gerald Everett this week (+11).  With Cooper Kupp out this week, Everett should benefit with a couple of extra targets.  He's looking like a sneaky play against the Niners, who are giving up the 4th most points to opposing tight ends this season. DEFENSES

Last week, I wasn't confident about the Cowboys against the Jags (-6 vs ECR), but Dallas dominated this game and was a top-10 fantasy defense.  I was sort of high on both the Browns and Chargers (who played each other...I was +4 vs the ECR on each of them).  I thought both defenses could be solid in this matchup, but only the Chargers were.  With their upcoming schedule, Cleveland can safely be dropped in all leagues (@TB, @PIT, KC, ATL, BYE).

This week, I like the Dolphins (+6 vs ECR) to keep it rolling at home against the Lions.  Miami has been a top-10 fantasy defense this season, and outside of Chicago and New England, they've held each of their other opponents to 20 points or less.  They're averaging about 2 sacks and 2 interceptions per game, and they've had a pick in every game this year.  If you're nervous about starting someone with a bad matchup like the Panthers or Jets, I'd recommend the Dolphins.

I'm down on the Patriots (-7 vs ECR), who are playing in Chicago against a Bears offense that has looked pretty damn good the last few weeks.  I sure hope that continues, and I hope my man Tarik is a big part of that.  We'll see how it all shakes out.

Good luck to everyone in Week 7!  

(Except you, Jimmy...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings

Every team in the NFC East lost in Week 5, but that's actually impossible this week.  The Eagles and Giants play tomorrow night, and they can't BOTH lose.  Sure, they could tie (that would be awesome), but I don't think that'll happen.  In fact, I think the Eagles get back on track and destroy the G-Men.  We'll find out soon enough.

Still only two teams on a bye this week, but the 4-team byes are coming in Week 7.  It's about to get real.  Let's do the rankings!

BYES: Lions & Saints

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week I was actually high on Josh Rosen (+6), but I did leave a caveat saying I wasn't suggesting you start him outside of maybe a 2 QB league.  I had him as my #22 fantasy quarterback, and he finished at #26...so move along.  Nothing to see here.

I wasn't really down on anyone very much, but I was 4 spots lower on Drew Brees versus the ECR.  Oopsie whoopsies!  My Redskins were coming off a bye, and I thought they would do better in this game.  Brees was a top-3 QB, so I was wrong wrong wrong with my QB picks in Week 5.

Let's see if I can do better here in Week 6.  I'm high on Carson Wentz (+5 vs ECR), as I think he'll be a top-10 fantasy QB tomorrow night.  With Ajayi out for the year, I think Philly will throw the ball a little bit more.  Wentz has thrown for over 300 yards and had a pair of touchdowns in each of his last two games, and those were against the Titans and Vikings.  This Giant defense scares me less than both of those other teams.  I'm also high on Sam Darnold (+5) who I think could finish in the top-20 against a weak Indy defense.

I'm down on Ryan Tannehill this week (-5 vs ECR) because he's facing the Bears.  Chicago is coming off their bye and is one of the best defenses in the league.  I feel like the Dolphins will struggle to get 200 yards of total offense in this game.  I could be wrong here, but I don't see why you'd bet on Tannehill this week.


RUNNING BACKS

I was super high on Robert Turbin for his first game back from suspension (+20), but he got zero playing time, so the ECR was right.  I was also fairly high on Phillip Lindsay who continues to lead the committee for Denver.  He didn't quite finish as an RB2 in Week 5, but I'll continue to rank him that way moving forward.  I was high on Alfred Blue (+13) and Chris Carson (+16), and both finished in the top-25 about where I ranked them. I was down on Mark Ingram (-8) because I wanted to see him prove what he could do in this offense rather than just assume he'd have the same role he had last year.  Well, he found the endzone twice and finished as a top-5 RB, so I'd say he's back.  I've lowered Kamara slightly in my ROS rankings, but I'll continue to rank both in my top-12 in my weekly rankings (after the Saints come back from their bye week). I was also down on Derrick Henry (-8) at Buffalo, and he continued to finish outside of the top-40 RBs.  He still hasn't broken the 6 fantasy point barrier through 5 weeks. I'm staying down on Derrick Henry this week (-8), and he might be outside of my top-50 next week if he continues to stink it up.  I'm high on a guy on my roster in my money league: Marlon Mack (+24).  I'm not starting him in Week 6, but I do think he could get the majority of touches against the Jets.  His head coach hinted that he would be the lead back when he returned, and I think it'll be this week.  With T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle likely still out, Mack could be in line for a lot of work.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I was really high on Will Fuller when I posted my rankings last week (+14), but that only turned into a +3 difference versus the ECR by Sunday, so I'll just say I was wrong like the ECR with that pick. I was super high on Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+22 on Thursday, +12 on Sunday).  His head coach hinted earlier in the week that his role would expand with Cobb likely out and Geronimo 50/50 to play.  With BOTH out on Sunday, I guess the rest of the ECR also figured out that Marquez had potential for a big game (he finished as a top-20 WR).  Near the top of my rankings, I was down on Odell Beckham, Jr. (-6), so naturally he not only caught his first TD this year but he also threw one to Saquon!  Whatever.  The Giants lost, so I'm at least happy about that.  I guess I'll get OBJ back in my top-10 WRs... If you look near the top of my rankings this week, I'm high on Cooper Kupp (+10 vs ECR).  This is just a guess at this point, but I think he starts and Brandin Cooks misses this week due to his concussion.  Even if Cooks does play, I don't see why both guys AND Bob Woods couldn't all be top-15 WRs.  If you go lower in my rankings, you'll see I'm staying high on Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+26).  I'm assuming Cobb will still be out, and Marquez will continue to be involved in their offenses and is worth FLEX consideration.  I'm staying down on Doug Balwin (-15) until he proves he's healthy.  The ECR currently has him ranked #27, but I don't see how you can get him in your lineup right now based on his lack of production. TIGHT ENDS I stayed high on Geoff Swaim in Week 5, but my +7 versus the ECR turned to only +3 on Sunday.  Still, he finished as a top-15 TE, and if you can get five or more points from that position, you're doing OK right now.  I was also high on C.J. Uzomah, but my Thursday +7 turned into a +2 on Sunday versus the ECR.  He finished right behind Swaim as the #16 TE in Week 5, and I think he'll be a much better option than Kroft the rest of the season.  If you're struggling at the tight end position, both of these guys could be decent waiver pickups. This week, I'm high on Niles Paul (+9) and down on Antonio Gates (-7).  Paul was heavily involved in the Jag offense when ASJ went down last week, so I expect him to be a top-20 tight end.  As for Gates, I'm having a hard time trusting him as a top-20 guy.  I feel like he's more likely to have 2 catches for 20 yards than, well, anything more than that really. DEFENSES

I missed on one of my defense picks versus the ECR for the first time.  I was high enough on the Packers to make them borderline startable (15th, 4 spots higher than the ECR).  That wasn't a good call because they gave up a ton of points to the Lions and were not a good defense in Week 5.  I was down on the Cowboys (-7) because I believed in my boy Deshaun Watson lighting them up at home on Sunday night.  While he didn't exactly light them up, the Texans got the win and the Cowboys barely finished in the top-20 fantasy defenses (right about where I ranked them and NOT where the ECR ranked them, which was 10th).

I feel like I'm splitting hairs with my defense picks lately, as my rankings are getting closer and closer to the ECR as the season progresses.  I'm still not feeling super confident about the Cowboys though (-5 vs ECR), but the experts are still ranking them in their top-12.  I know Bortles is prone to pick sixes, but I think the Jags will roll in this game, and I wouldn't feel good about starting Dallas this week.  I'm kind of high on the Browns and Chargers who are playing each other this week (+5 vs the ECR on each of them).  I have a feeling this game will stay low scoring, and I think both defenses could be solid.

Good luck to everyone in Week 6!  

(Except you, David...)

Cheers,

Bart

2018 Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings

When did it become October?!?  I guess a couple of days ago, yeah.  That means fall is here (or rather almost here if you take a look at the weather outside).  It also means we're going to see a lot of pink accessories on the field in Week 5.  Finally, it means we're a quarter of the way through the NFL season and nearly halfway through the fantasy regular season.  I realize that's a weird way to look at things, but that's reality.  The heavy bye weeks haven't hit too hard yet, but they're coming.  You need to be making smart moves on the waiver wire and pay attention to who other people may have dropped.  I was able to add T.J. Yeldon and Rams D in my money league, and I'm pretty happy about both pickups.  We'll see how they pan out this week and beyond.

Let's do the rankings!

BYE: Bears & Bucs

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
As with most weeks in the NFL, Week 4 was a bit of a mixed bag.  My picks versus the ECR were no different.  I wasn't high on many quarterbacks, but I was 3 spots higher than the experts on Big Ben, so I talked him up a bit.  I wasn't afraid of the Ravens D without C.J. Mosley, but Mosley actually played and was a huge factor in this game.  Roethlisberger nearly finished outside of the top-20, and with Jimmy Smith returning this week for Baltimore, it's time to start thinking of the Ravens as an elite defense once again.  I still wasn't trusting Carson Wentz just yet, and I was 5 spots lower than the ECR on him last week.  I factored in Alshon not being back yet, but he was (and scored a TD).  I said Wentz could finish outside of the top-15 fantasy QBs again, and he did. 

I'd like to also point out that I updated my rankings on Sunday before the 1:00 kickoff, and I was 9 spots lower on Ryan Fitzpatrick versus the ECR.  I had a feeling Chicago's defense would dominate and the Fitzmagic could end.  All of that happened, and I was pretty happy with my prediction, so I thought I'd pat myself on the back real quick there.

This week, I'm actually high on Josh Rosen (+7).  I'm not suggesting you start him outside of maybe a 2 QB league because I have him as my #22 fantasy quarterback.  But I do think he could show some improvement in just his second NFL start.  He'll face a 49er defense that has given up nearly 3 passing TDs/game to start the season, so why can't Rosen throw a pair of scores?  I'm not really down on anyone very much, but I'm 4 spots lower on Drew Brees versus the ECR.  My Redskins are coming off a bye, and I have a feeling they'll put some pressure on Brees in this game.  I say he finishes outside of the top-5 QBs this week.

RUNNING BACKS

Last week I was way off with the guys I was high on versus the ECR: Peyton Barber (+10) and Buck Allen (+7).  I realized Barber was facing a stingy Bears defense, but I knew he'd at least have the opportunity to get things going in the first half.  Well, he had very little opportunity because the Bears steamrolled the Bucs.  Ronald Jones II was active for the first time this season, and he actually got most of the playing time in the second half.  Tampa Bay is on a bye this week, and I expect Jameis and Jones to get way more playing time from here on out.  As for Allen, he failed to find the endzone for the first time this season.  He had some decent yardage though, and he finished just inside the top-40.  I'll continue to rank him as a FLEX option this week against the Browns. I was way down on Kenyan Drake in Week 4 (-10), and I was spot on there.  The ECR had him well into their top-20, but I said he belongs in the rankings near Dion Lewis and James White rather than Marshawn Lynch and Alex Collins.  I thought the Patriots would bounce back and dominate the Dolphins, and Drake could find himself running low on touches.  Pretty spot on.  Drake finished with less than 2 fantasy points for the second week in a row.  I'd have a hard time trusting him in Cincy this week, especially with Burfict back in the lineup after serving his suspension. Speaking of this week, I'm super high on Robert Turbin (+30).  Indy's run game has been pretty terrible this year, but I think they'll try to get Turbin going in his first game back from suspension.  Of course he could also find himself in some serious negative game script (see also, Peyton Barber last week).  But I think ranking him #76 is a bit harsh.  I think he'll score some points in his return.  I'm also fairly high on Phillip Lindsay (+9) who feels like the best back in a strong committee.  He's an RB2 until proven otherwise. I'm down on Mark Ingram this week (-10) because I'd rather see him prove what he can do in this offense rather than just assume he'll have the same role he had last year.  Kamara is ballin out, and I'm not so sure Ingram is a top-20 RB this week.  I'm also down on Derrick Henry (-11) at Buffalo.  I just can't trust him as my RB2 until he starts scoring some touchdowns or something.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Like I mentioned above, Brady and the Patriots bounced back in a big way in Week 4, but Chris Hogan wasn't part of the blowout win.  I was 12 spots higher on Hogan versus the ECR, but he finished with just one catch for 25 yards.  With Josh Gordon picking up the offense (and now in the lineup) and Edelman coming back from suspension this week, Hogan might be an afterthought in this offense.  I wouldn't drop him just yet, but he's close to that territory.  I was down on Allen Robinson (-10), and he had just one catch and finished outside of the top-35 WRs in Week 4.  However, that one catch was for a touchdown (part of Mitchapalooza), so you weren't super disappointed if you started him.  Still, I'll likely continue to be slightly down on A-Rob versus the ECR when he returns from his bye week. This week, I'm really high on Will Fuller (+14).  Of course that's assuming he's healthy.  If he gets scratched, then scratch that pick too.  But if he plays, that dude will find the endzone.  I'm also high on Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+22).  I realize his name is a mouthful, but his head coach is hinting that his role will expand this week with Cobb likely out (and Geronimo 50/50 to play at this point).  Near the top of my rankings, I'm down on Odell Beckham, Jr. (-6).  I'm just not going to rank him in my top-10 until he looks like he belongs in the top-10. TIGHT ENDS In Week 4, I was high on Geoff Swaim (+10) and down on David Njoku (-7).   Swaim followed up the best game of his career with an even better game in Week 4.  He found the endzone and nearly broke double-digit fantasy points on his way to a top-10 finish.  Meanwhile, Njoku barely finished in the top-20 (I ranked him 17th).  With so many injuries at the tight end position, Njoku moves up my rankings by default, but I'm not happy about it. I'm staying high on Swaim this week (+7), and I'm also high on C.J. Uzomah (+7).  I think he'll slide ride into Eifert's role and Kroft will be more of a blocker.  If Gronk doesn't play tomorrow night, I may find myself picking up one of them and putting them in my lineup (*sigh*). DEFENSES

I nailed my defense picks versus the ECR once again.  I was high on the Jets (+8), who had been a top-5 fantasy defense this season.  They were facing a Jags offense that just scored 6 points against the Titans, and I thought the Jets could sneak into the top-12...and they did!

I was down 10 spots versus the ECR on the Vikings on Thursday night because that Rams offense has looked scary good.  I said this game would end up more of a shootout than a defensive struggle, and I was right about that.  Jared Goff looked like a young Tom Brady droppin dimes, and the Vikings were the WORST fantasy defense in Week 4!

This week, I'm high enough on the Packers (15th, 4 spots higher than the ECR) to make them borderline startable.  I'm down on the Cowboys (-6) because I believe in my boy Deshaun Watson lighting them up at home on Sunday night.  I sure hope I'm right there.

Good luck to everyone in Week 5!  

(Except you, Misciagna...)

Cheers,

Bart