Wednesday, October 17, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

Image result for tarik cohenWith the 4-team bye weeks finally here, you might not have a lot of decisions to make when it comes to setting your lineup over the next few weeks.  Or if you're like me in my money league, you might have 6 running backs...and you want to start all of them!  Luckily I was able to trade one of them away for a quality receiver, so I'll be down to five: Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, Marlon Mack, and Tarik Cohen.  I'm definitely starting Hunt, and I really like what Breida has been doing this season, so he'll be in my lineup if he's healthy.  I'm also fine letting Mack sit on my bench (even though he looks like the clear workhorse now that he's healthy again).  So that causes a dilemma for me between Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.

These tough decisions often pop up when you're setting those lineups on Sundays.  Do you go with the safe play or the homerun hitter?  Do you start the guy who has proven he can put up fantasy points consistently over the last couple of seasons or the guy who has looked way better the last couple of games?  I often go with the "safe" play (in this case, Jordan Howard), but this week I'm having a hard time with these two RBs who are on the same team and trending in opposite directions.  Are you having a similar debate between Lamar Miller and Ito Smith?  Keenan Allen versus Tyler Boyd?  It's tough to start the young guy who has been producing, but all you can really do is try to be confident in our decision and commit.  Oh, and hope for the best.

I'll probably go with my gut and roll with Cohen.  I'll be disappointed if he has 5 fantasy points and Howard has 15, but it just feels much more likely that the opposite will play out.  Who knows?  Maybe they'll both have like 10 points and it won't really matter.

By the way, I've been updating my ROS rankings sort of randomly as I remember, so I wanted to remind you with that link.  It can be a good reference, especially if you're thinking about trades over the next couple of weeks.  I know I will be...

Enough talk.  Let's do the rankings!

BYE: Packers, Raiders, Steelers, Seahawks




QUARTERBACKS
Last week I got back on track with my quarterback picks versus the ECR.  I was high on Carson Wentz (+6 vs ECR), and he ended up as a top-10 fantasy QB against the Giants.  I was also high on Sam Darnold (+4) who I said could finish in the top-20 against a weak Indy defense.  Well, he nearly finished in the top-10 as well.  I was down on Ryan Tannehill (-5 vs ECR), and he didn't even play.  So technically I was right, but I ranked him so low because I thought the Dolphins would struggle against a tough Bear defense.  They did not.  Mr. Brocktober led them to a shocking victory in Miami, but I'm still going to chalk this up in the win column due to a technicality.  :)

Image result for carson wentzI'm still high on Wentz this week (+6 vs ECR), and I think he'll finish as a top-10 fantasy QB for the third week in a row.  In fact, I have him inside my top-5 this week against Carolina because I think he'll keeps this Eagle offense rolling.  I'm not really down on any QBs too much this week, so let's move on to the RBs!




RUNNING BACKS
I continued to be down on Derrick Henry in Week 6 (-8 vs ECR), and he nearly finished outside of the top-50.  I'm still down on Derrick Henry this week (-5), but I'm not down more than 5 spots on any other RBs.  So I'll just remind you that Henry hasn't finished as a top-40 RB all season.  Look elsewhere unless you're just a glutton for punishment.

Image result for ito smithGoing back to last week, I was high on a guy on my roster in my money league: Marlon Mack (+24 on Thursday, still +10 on Sunday).  I didn't starting him in Week 6, but I did say he could get the majority of touches against the Jets.  He got a decent workload even playing from behind the whole game, and he finished as a top-25 RB.  This week, I already mentioned how I'm high on Tarik Cohen (+9), but I'm also really high on Ito Smith (+9).  He's scored in three straight games, and his workload should continue with Devonta Freeman now placed on the IR.  I definitely see him as more of a FLEX consideration when compared to the ECR this week.



WIDE RECEIVERS
Last week I stayed high on Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+26), and he had double digit fantasy points for the second week in a row.  He nearly cracked the top-25 WRs, so I nailed that pick.  I stayed down on Doug Baldwin (-13), and he got plenty of targets against the Raiders and turned that into 91 yards.  Still, the ECR ranked him at #30, and he finished a few spots lower than that.

Image result for corey davisThis week, I'm high on another Falcon on MNF: Mohamed Sanu (+15).  Of course this is assuming he's healthy, but the guy has double digit fantasy points in each of his last 4 games.  He's also caught touchdowns in 3 of those 4 contests.  I think if anyone might sit this game out, it's Calvin Ridley.  The Falcons may want to rest him up through their bye week.  As long as Sanu is healthy enough to play, I think he'll get 5-7 targets and find the endzone against the Giants.

I'm down on Corey Davis this week (-11 vs ECR), and I don't see him finishing in the top-30.  This Titan offense is struggling, and Davis has just had the one big game this season.  In fact, he has almost he exact same number of points in that one game as he does in the other five combined.  I don't see how you can trust him and this offense right now.


TIGHT ENDS
Last week I was high on Niles Paul (+9 on Thursday, only +5 on Sunday) and down on Antonio Gates (-7).  Paul was heavily involved in the Jag offense when ASJ went down in Week 5, but it was Paul getting injured early against the Cowboys in Week 6.  He wouldn't return, so he wasn't able to do anything from a fantasy perspective.  As for Gates, he didn't do much better though (one catch for 5 yards).  I know the tight end position is a wasteland, but Gates isn't startable.  Hopefully you picked up Uzomah or Brate last week because both of those guys could be top-15 plays the rest of the season.

Speaking of Brate, I would like to point out that I was high on both Tampa Bay tight ends in Week 6: Brate (+4) and Howard (+7).  Both were top-12 options, and Jameis can support production for both guys moving forward.  This week, I'm still down on Antonio Gates (-7).  I just can't rank him in my top-20.  I'm high on Evan Engram (+8), assuming he's healthy enough to play Monday night as well.  If you want to go deeper into my rankings, I kind of like Gerald Everett this week (+11).  With Cooper Kupp out this week, Everett should benefit with a couple of extra targets.  He's looking like a sneaky play against the Niners, who are giving up the 4th most points to opposing tight ends this season.
Image result for gerald everett
DEFENSES
Last week, I wasn't confident about the Cowboys against the Jags (-6 vs ECR), but Dallas dominated this game and was a top-10 fantasy defense.  I was sort of high on both the Browns and Chargers (who played each other...I was +4 vs the ECR on each of them).  I thought both defenses could be solid in this matchup, but only the Chargers were.  With their upcoming schedule, Cleveland can safely be dropped in all leagues (@TB, @PIT, KC, ATL, BYE).

Image result for dolphins defenseThis week, I like the Dolphins (+6 vs ECR) to keep it rolling at home against the Lions.  Miami has been a top-10 fantasy defense this season, and outside of Chicago and New England, they've held each of their other opponents to 20 points or less.  They're averaging about 2 sacks and 2 interceptions per game, and they've had a pick in every game this year.  If you're nervous about starting someone with a bad matchup like the Panthers or Jets, I'd recommend the Dolphins.

I'm down on the Patriots (-7 vs ECR), who are playing in Chicago against a Bears offense that has looked pretty damn good the last few weeks.  I sure hope that continues, and I hope my man Tarik is a big part of that.  We'll see how it all shakes out.


Good luck to everyone in Week 7!  
(Except you, Jimmy...)

Cheers,
Bart

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