2018 Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings

I made two trades in my money league last week, and I made both of them a week too early!  One of the trades was Tom Brady for Cooper Kupp straight up.  I was getting worried about Deshaun Watson because he'd been struggling lately and dealing with an injury, and Brady felt like a sure thing on Monday Night Football.  Little did I know that for the second week in a row, I'd have someone blow up on my bench.  In Week 7, it was Marlon Mack.  I didn't make that mistake again in Week 8 (I got Mack in my lineup).  But I did sit Watson, and he had 5 touchdowns against the Dolphins on Thursday night and was easily the #1 fantasy QB in Week 8.  Meanwhile, Brady played game manager and got an easy win in Buffalo, but that didn't help me from a fantasy perspective.  The other trade I made was fine, but Michael Thomas (who I traded for) didn't do much more than Jarvis Landry (who I traded away).  Again, game script was the culprit.  I hope better days are ahead for both Brady and Thomas, as both are in my lineups again this week and likely the rest of the season.

Speaking of this week, there are six teams on a bye, so these rankings may prove more important than ever.  Also don't forget about my ROS rankings, especially when considering players in trade offers.  My rest of season rankings got me thinking about an even older post I made before the season started.  I wanted to take a look at some of my preseason predictions here at the midway point and see how they're looking.  If you want to jump straight to the rankings, feel free to do so (if you haven't already).

Before the season started, I asked several hypothetical questions and answers.  Here are a few of them in a very condensed form...

Question: Who is this year's Alvin Kamara?
Preseason Answer: Kalen Ballage
Midway Point Answer: Phillip Lindsay

Q: Who is this year's JuJu Smith-Schuster?
Preseason Answer: D.J. Moore
Midway Point Answer: Calvin Ridley (...though I think Moore still has a shot, and I'm also hoping Courtland Sutton becomes the real answer because I just added him off the waiver wire!)

Q: Who is this year's Carson Wentz?
Preseason Answer: Marcus Mariota
Midway Point Answer: Patrick Mahomes (though to be fair, he had nowhere to go but UP)

Q: Who is this year's Alex Collins?
Preseason Answer: Tarik Cohen
Midway Point Answer: Tarik Cohen

So a couple of potential accurate predictions and a couple not-so-accurate.  I also made some rough predictions of what the top-12 at each position could look like after the 2018 season (with some bold picks sprinkled in).  These weren't my preseason rankings, but they factored in some of the guys I was high/low on before the season started.  Let's see how I'm doing there, shall we?

QBs
Tom Brady
Cam Newton
Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Russell Wilson
Deshaun Watson
Matthew Stafford
Marcus Mariota
Philip Rivers
Jared Goff
Kirk Cousins
Matt Ryan

There's a lot of football yet to be played, but I'm feeling pretty confident about a good portion of this list.  I didn't see Mahomes or Trubisky coming, but I did have Andrew Luck as a BOLD potential top-5 finisher.  Sure, I also had Mariota in my top-10, but let's focus on the rest of the list, shall we?  As it stands, I have 8 correct out of the current top-12.  And that includes "misses" like Rodgers and Wilson who are just on the edge and have already had their bye week.  It's very possible I could nail 10 out of the 12 at this position.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott
David Johnson 
Le'Veon Bell
Saquon Barkley
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon 
Alvin Kamara
Derrius Guice
Dalvin Cook
Jay Ajayi 
Kareem Hunt
Sony Michel 

If you plug in James Conner for Le'Veon Bell, my top-12 doesn't look too bad.  It has a bunch of injured guys near the end of the list (Guice/Cook/Ajayi), but otherwise it's solid.  I was right to leave Fournette and Freeman off the list, and I feel like Sony Michel could still sneak into the 12 spot if he gets healthy and finishes strong.

WRs
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Davante Adams
Antonio Brown
T.Y. Hilton
Doug Baldwin
Julio Jones
Stefon Diggs
DeAndre Hopkins
Chris Hogan
Randall Cobb
Michael Thomas
Sammy Watkins

I made some bold choices with this list, and so far I've been pretty wrong about ranking Diggs over Theilen in the preseason.  But realistically, both could end up in the top-12 this year!  I was super wrong about Hogan and Cobb, but Sammy Watkins could crack this list if he stays healthy.  He and T.Y. Hilton have a lot of catching up to do, but both are still possibilities.  Doug Baldwin in the top-5 was way off, but Davante Adams as the #2 fantasy WR was a bold pick during the preseason.  He has a good chance to finish right up there.

TEs
Zach Ertz
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
Kyle Rudolph
Jordan Reed
Delanie Walker
Travis Kelce
Greg Olsen
Trey Burton
Antonio Gates
Hayden Hurst
Charles Clay

I drafted Gronk as the first tight end off the board in my money league (who wasn't already a keeper), but I wasn't super confident about him to finish the season as the #1 tight end.  It looks like it'll be either Ertz or Kelce to have that honor, and the rest of my list is just mostly wrong.  It's so hard to predict the tight end position, which makes Gronk/Ertz/Kelce that much more valuable in my opinion.  I hope Gronk can turn it on in the second half of the season, but I don't feel great about it after watching him lumber around the field through 8 weeks.


Below were my real football predictions for the season.  My Super Bowl prediction is looking pretty solid, but it would appear as though I did not give the Saints and Chiefs enough credit.  Otherwise, the rest of my predictions are still quite plausible.  I sure hope I'm wrong about the NFC East!

AFC East: New England Patriots

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Houston Texans

AFC West: Denver Broncos

AFC Wild Card1: Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC Wild Card2: LA Chargers

[Patriots over Steelers in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

NFC West: LA Rams

NFC Wild Card1: Green Bay Packers

NFC Wild Card2: Detroit Lions

[Rams over Falcons in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: Patriots over Rams

I usually don't do long intros, but it felt like a good time to do a little check on my preseason predictions.  Some actually aren't half bad!  But now let's get into the Week 9 rankings!


BYE: Cardinals, Bengals, Colts, Jaguars, Giants, Eagles

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week I was high on Blake Bortles (+6) because I believed in London Blake Bortles.  He usually plays great when he's across the pond, but that was not the case.  But you know what?  Bortles doesn't have to play great in order to be a decent fantasy QB.  I said he should easily be a top-20 fantasy QB, and he finished 14th.  If you're going to plug Bortles into your lineup, just don't watch the game.  But more often than not, he will get you some fantasy points.  I was also high on Russel Wilson (+4), and he finished with 3 TDs on his way to a top-10 finish (his ECR was 14).  I was down on Jared Goff (-4) and Kirk Cousins (-4) because I didn't see either as a top-5 play like the other experts did.  While Goff did finish in the top-5, Cousins finished outside of the top-10.

I'm still high on Russell Wilson versus the experts (+4), as I see him as a top-10 play and the ECR doesn't.  If you're digging deeper into my rankings for a bye week fill-in, I actually like Flacco at home against the Steelers (+5).  He's put up big numbers against them recently, and I think he'll have a pair of touchdowns in this game.  I'm down on Baker Mayfield (-4).  Sure, he'll have to throw a ton in order to keep up with the Chiefs likely scoring a ton of points, but I think that'll just lead to turnovers.  I don't see him as a great play against an improved Kansas City defense.

RUNNING BACKS

I was really high on Kenjon Barner (+16 on Wednesday, +7 on Sunday), but he was barely involved in the gameplan against Buffalo.  I got Belitricked.  I was down on Javorius Allen (-8), who hadn't had more than 6 fantasy points since Week 3.  His role has been extremely reduced the last couple of weeks, and that actually continued against the Panthers except for his touchdown reception.  He had zero carries and just 3 catches, but the touchdown landed him inside the top-30.  With Ty Montgomery now a Raven, Buck Allen can be safely dropped in all leagues (if you hadn't waived him already). This week, I'm down on Mark Ingram and Nick Chubb (-7 on each guy).  I already mentioned how I'm not crazy about the Browns in this game, and I think game script will work against Chubb.  Assuming Cleveland is playing behind this whole game, I don't see how you can expect the rookie to be a top-12 RB this week.  I fully expect Duke Johnson to be more involved in this game, especially with the running backs coach promoted to offensive coordinator this week.  The Rams/Saints game should be high scoring, but I don't think relying on Ingram to have a touchdown is wise.  He's not a top-15 fantasy RB for me this week.  I'm highest on Jamaal Williams (+12) because I don't expect Aaron Jones to get all of the work now that Montgomery is in Baltimore.  I think this will be closer to a 50/50 split, and Williams could get plenty of touches in a high scoring affair against New England.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I was high on Danny Amendola when I posted my rankings on Wednesday (+10), but that turned into just a +3 vs ECR on Thursday.  Another guy I was high on though was Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+10).  Even with Allison and Cobb back in the lineup, it was MVS who caught a touchdown and finished in the top-30 for his third game in a row.  I was down on DeSean Jackson (-8), and that ended up being wrong.  I pointed out that he's definitely been more boom than bust this season, but I thought he was due for a dud. Outside of his 60 yard touchdown, he had just two catches for 8 yards.  Still, that big play put him in the top-20, and I moved him way up with Ryan Fitzpatrick back at QB. I'm still ten spots higher than the experts on Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and coincidentally I'm way down on Randall Cobb (-16).  I just don't trust Cobb as the 2nd or even 3rd option in that offense right now because he's more like option 4 or 5.  I'm super high on Adam Humphries this week (+24).  He had a ton of targets in Week 8, and I think he belongs in the top-50.  Hopefully you're not digging that deep for your FLEX play, but maybe he could make a decent DFS play.   TIGHT ENDS I stayed high on Chris Herndon (+6) and he caught a TD for his third game in a row on his way to a top-15 finish.  I was also fairly high on C.J. Uzomah though (+4), and I even had him in my top-10.  However, he turned a great matchup into exactly zero catches for zero yards.  I was also high on Ed Dickson at the last minute (+10), and he had 54 yards and a touchdown.  He finished in the top-10 and could be more involved in this offense now that he's healthy.  I down on Rob Gronkowski in Week 8 (-7), and I even started O.J. Howard over him in my money league.  That was by far the right call, as Gronk finished outside of the top-15 and is proving to be a huge second round bust for me in my money league.  I'm probably going to plug him into my lineup this week though and hope that he and Brady make some magic together against Green Bay. I only ranked 20 tight ends this week, and I'm not super high/low on any.  But I guess I'm kind of high on Jordan Reed (+4).  He's been getting a huge target share in this offense.  He just hasn't produced great fantasy numbers.  I think that changes this week against a terrible Falcon secondary.  The Redskins should find a way to get Jordan into the endzone, and I think he will be in the top-5. DEFENSES

Last week, most experts had the Cardinals as a top-10 play, but I actually had them in my top-5 (+4 vs ECR).  They didn't quite finish there, but they were damn close and finished 8th.  When I saw that Khalil Mack was out for Week 8, I actually dropped the Bears a bit in my rankings (-5 vs ECR).  I left them in my top-10, but the ECR had them as the #2 fantasy defense.  I just couldn't see that without Mack in the lineup, and I was right because they finished outside of the top-12.

The Raiders are a bad defense, but the 49ers aren't a great offense either.  C.J. Beathard is questionable with a wrist injury tomorrow night, so it's either him or undrafted rookie Nick Mullens running the show.  I like for Oakland to get some turnovers and maybe even a pick 6, so I currently like them 7 spots higher than the ECR.  I'm down on the Dolphins (-7) who looked absolutely terrible against the Texans last week.  The Jets are coming to town this week, but Sam Darnold did a pretty good job taking care of the ball against a tough Bears defense last week.  I like for him to continue that trend and not throw a bunch of picks against the Dolphins.  I also think the Jets could put up a lot of points in this game like they did against the Broncos and Colts.

Good luck to everyone in Week 9!  

(Except you, Mike...)

Cheers,

Bart