Monday, September 30, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Rest of Season Rankings

Image result for patrick mahomes imageTwo 0-3 AFC North teams are currently playing on MNF, and I don't really care about that game one bit.  It felt like a good night to catch up on the DVR and also get the first version of my Rest of Season rankings out there.  We're a quarter of the way through the regular season, so it just feels right.  I'll try to update this post weekly, so just bookmark it and check back frequently for updates.


Wednesday, September 25, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings

Image result for antonio brown patriotsCan we finally be done with the Antonio Brown drama?  Please?  I'm so tired of seeing his name in my Twitter feed.  Seriously.  Let's move on to some Melvin Gordon drama, shall we?  Hopefully that won't be too much drama.  Just him finally reporting to his team and likely back to business...but that's probably Week 5 at this point.

Let's start with Week 4.  And that means the BYE weeks have begun.  It's only the Jets and 49ers, so only a couple of fantasy relevant guys will be missed this week.  But in the weeks to come, you need to start looking ahead a little bit.  I mean, you should be doing that to some extent anyway.  But not all bye weeks are created equal.  Take a look at the next couple of weeks for your team and make sure you don't have like three guys all out Week 6 or something.  If you do, hopefully my rankings can help you fill some of those holes if you don't realize it until you're surfing the internet on a Wednesday night.

I do want to brag for a second because one bright spot for me in Week 3 was my record versus the spread & over/under.  I actually went 15-5 and was the #2 ranker on the FantasyPros site for the week!  Let's see if I can keep it up with my picks at the bottom of this article.

But first, the rankings!

I'm actually a little high on Derek Carr versus the ECR this week.  That's not to say I'm crazy about the guy, but I do have him as a top-20 play against a banged up Colts defense.  I'm facing Darren Waller in my money league, so I fully expect him to have a huge day.  Oh, and you can probably count on another Carr to Tyrell touchdown as well.  I'm a little down on Gardner Minshew, though you're probably not considering him well past QB20 anyway.  Still, I just point this out in case you are streaming a QB this week.  Don't let the mustache fool you.  I'd look elsewhere and avoid Minshew at Mile High.

Image result for darrel williams chiefsI loved Frank Gore in Week 3 against the Bengals, and he ended up having a solid game.  I'm backing off him slightly this week against the Patriots, but he's still in FLEX consideration.  Speaking of a potential FLEX play, I think Darrel Williams fits the bill if Damien Williams misses Week 4.  So far he's not practicing this week, and LeSean McCoy's ankle is a bit banged up.  I actually think Darrel could get the largest share of RB touches in this game, and with a high over/under, that could mean plenty of yards and a good shot at the end zone.

Someone who continues to fall down my rankings is Duke Johnson.  He was my preseason "sneaky top-20 RB", and when he was traded to the Texans, I thought that would be a lock.  So far through 3 weeks, that doesn't appear to be the case.  But it's still only Week 4.  There's plenty of football left to play.  For now though, I've lowered him outside of my top-40 RBs and currently 12 spots lower than the ECR.

Last week I was about 20 spots higher than the ECR on both Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman, and Mahomes connected with each of them for a touchdown.  You need to consider both guys as FLEX plays until Tyreek Hill is back in the lineup.  I still have both as top-30 WRs, but the ECR does not.  I'm also WAY high on Marquez Valdes-Scantling who broke out a little bit last week against the Broncos.  I think he could go for 99+ yards and a score for the second week in a row.  I keep lowering Stefon Diggs, but the ECR still has him as a top-30 play.  I just can't do it right now.  There's not enough volume in that passing game, and this week the Vikings face a tough Bears defense.  I'd stay away if you have a better option for your WR2 spot or even FLEX.

Image result for jared cook saintsIt's only Week 4 and I'm already tired of the tight end position.  Once again it's a brutal wasteland.  Last week I rolled the dice on Will Dissly, and that worked out pretty well.  This week he faces a Cardinal defense that gives up the most points to tight end (and it's not even close!).  I'm hoping for another big week from him, and I have him as a top-5 play.  I'm down on Jared Cook who did nothing in two games with Brees and then more nothing with Bridgewater.  I'm not sure why the ECR has him as a top-15 play.  I think that just shows how bad the tight end position is after the first 6 or 7 guys.

Last week I faded the Rams because I thought the Browns would bounce back and look good on Sunday night.  The Browns did not bounce back and did not look good.  The Rams were a top-10 fantasy defense, and they're in my top-5 this week against Jameis the turnover machine.  I'm kind of high on the Packers in tomorrow night's game.  This defense has been really good through 3 weeks, and now it's time to see if they're for real against Wentz and the Eagles.  I think they are.  I'm not down too much on many defenses, though I'm doubling down on the Browns this week and slightly fading the Ravens.  But whatever.  I get it if you want to start Baltimore D at home in a division game. 

As for my Week 4 picks including Browns/Ravens and quite a few others, they're listed below:


Wednesday, September 18, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings

Image result for cam newton post game outfit 2019So in Week 1, I did a separate post with my picks for all 16 games (ATS and O/U).  My results were EXACTLY 50%.  I went 8-8 versus the spread and 8-8 on my over/under picks.  In Week 2, I forgot to post my picks but still made 13 of them (a mixture of ATS & O/U), and my record was 6-7.  I'm still going to make the picks to see how I do, but I'd probably forget to make a separate post with my picks.  With that being said, I'm going to turn this post into rankings AND my weekly picks.

I'll update both lists before the 1:00 kickoffs on Sunday, so check back for updates!

With guys like Brees and Roethlisberger now out and Cam highly questionable, the QB position gets dicey after the top-15 or so.  If you're not streaming someone like Stafford or Garoppolo, you might be considering starting someone who has never started a game in the NFL.  Not a great spot to be in here in Week 3, but it might already be time to roll the dice!  I have Mason Rudolph as a top-20 play this week, and I think you could do worse than Kyle Allen versus a depleted Arizona secondary.

Image result for frank gore billsI'm down on David Johnson for the second week in a row.  The ECR liked him as a top-10 play in Baltimore last week, and he finished outside of the top-30 in a tough matchup.  This week he faces a strong Panther defense, and I still can't trust him as a top-10 play.  Not even close for me.  I'm really high on boring guys like Frank Gore and Peyton Barber this week.  In fact, I have both as RB2s because of their great matchups.  And in the case of Gore, if Singletary is limited with a hamstring issue, he could be in line for a huge workload against the struggling Bengals.  A guy I like in a deep league is Ty Johnson.  You might be thinking "who?".  Well, he's now the #2 running back in Detroit with the release of C.J. Anderson.  Kerryon Johnson is the lead guy, but I think this will continue to be somewhat of a committee.  I could see Johnson & Johnson both getting some work this week, and Ty could end up being a guy to watch on the waiver wire in the next week or two.

When I posted my rankings on Wednesday last week, I was about 20 spots higher than the ECR on Marquise Brown and James Washington.  While Hollywood Brown finished as a top-30 play against the Cardinals, Washington was nowhere near the top-50.  Keep an eye on James Washington this week though because I think his college quarterback (Rudolph) might look his way a little more than Ben did.  I'm about 20 spots higher than the ECR on both Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman this week.  It doesn't really matter who the Chiefs are playing, you can pencil in Mahomes for 3 or 4 touchdowns.  That doesn't mean Robinson and Hardman will each get a score, but it feels more likely than with any other offense in the NFL.  I'd consider both as FLEX plays this week, and if you want a deep guy then consider Devin Smith.  He's a former high draft pick who has dealt with injuries early in his career, but now he's healthy and should slide right into the Michael Gallup role against the LOLphins.

Image result for will dissly seahawks block gifLast week I was high on Tyler Higbee as a top-20 play and down on Tyler Eifert who the ECR had as a top-20 play.  Well, I got my Tylers crossed because Eifert finished well ahead of Higbee.  This week, the tight end landscape is starting to look like the wasteland it was last season.  You have 4 or 5 guys you can trust, another couple who you think you can trust (or are hoping come around), and then the rest who are pretty much touchdown or bust.  I'm in the "touchdown or bust" category right now because I drafted Hunter Henry in the middle rounds, and he's now unfortunately on the waiver wire.  One guy I like more than the ECR this week is Vernon Davis, another tight end who I recently waived.  I thought I'd give Will Dissly a shot this week, but I still like Davis to have a nice game on Monday Night.  Of course if Jordan Reed finally makes it back from his concussion, then you can disregard this.  But for now, I'm not holding my breath for that to happen and will expect Vernon to be a solid tight end for at least a couple more weeks.

I was actually kind of high on the Falcons last week, but I only had them ranked around the 20th best fantasy defense.  Still, they finished as a top-10 unit, so this was a good call versus the ECR.  But I said if you were considering the Jags, you should reconsider.  The ECR had them as a top-12 unit but I did NOT.  The ECR was right because they finished not far behind the Falcons in Week 2. 

This week I like Colts about as much as I liked the Falcons last week.  Again, barely a top-20 play, but you could do worse.  I'm fading the Rams because I think the Browns will bounce back and have something to prove on Sunday night.  I think Baker might start turning it around in what could be a high scoring affair.

But not that high scoring because for now I kind of like the under...

Here are the rest of my Week 3 picks:


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 2 Rankings

Image result for lamar jackson
If you came out of Week 1 with a win, congratulations.  It's always good to get off on the right foot.  You can't win em all if you don't win the first one, right?  Well, I didn't win in Week 1.  No, I faced Lamar Jackson in Week 1.  Oh, and Austin Ekeler.  Pretty sure those two had like 75% of my opponent's fantasy points, and that way plenty to give him like a 20 point victory.  But it's time to get back on track here in Week 2.  Below are my initial rankings, which I'll update leading up to the 1:00 kickoffs on Sunday.  I'll do a quick recap of a few of my Week 1 picks below, and I'll give you a handful of guys I like/don't like versus the ECR as of tonight.

Let's get right to it, shall we?

I had Philip Rivers as a top-10 fantasy QB last week, which was way higher than the ECR.  He finished right at #10, so that was spot on.  But I was down on Mahomes and Rodgers in bad road matchups.  Only one of those was right (Rodgers).  I didn't see Roethisberger as a top-15 fantasy QB in Foxboro, and Road Ben didn't disappoint me (but likely disappointed fantasy owners).  He didn't even finish as a top-25 QB last week, but he should bounce back at home against Seattle. 

Image result for matt ryanThis week, I have Matt Ryan all the way up as my #2 QB at home against Philly's garbage secondary (ECR #7).  I'm also slightly high on Kirk Cousins, but I barely have him as a top-20 play.  Right now I'm down on Drew Brees, who tends to play much better at home.  This week he's on the road against the Rams, and I don't have him as a top-12 play.

Last week I liked Tevin Coleman, while the ECR liked Matt Breida more against the Bucs.  Coleman got hurt in this game, and now I'm facing Breida in my money league this week.  Double whammy!  I didn't really like most of the rookie RBs in Week 1, and I warned you about guys like David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, and Justice Hill.  Of the bunch, Singletary was really the only one who had much production.  All of the others might get their time eventually, and I actually think it could start this week for Sanders.  As for Montgomery, I'm still in "wait and see" mode.  

For Week 2, I like Damien Williams as a top-12 play against Oakland (ECR #20), and I'm kinda down on David Johnson.  The ECR likes him as a top-10 play in Baltimore, but I worry about his usage in this game.  If the Ravens are for real, they could limit Johnson's effectiveness in this game, and Chase Edmonds could even get more involved if they're trailing by a couple of touchdowns late in the game.

If you went deep into my Week 1 WR rankings, you found Paul Richardson (who I had about 30 spots higher than the ECR).  Turns out he wasn't the high volume play I thought he would be, and it was the rookie Terry McLaurin who lit up the Eagles. As for guys I didn't like, I wasn't confident in Will Fuller's knee, and I'd been down on Courtland Sutton all preseason.  Sutton had a good game against Oakland, so I was wrong there.  As for Fuller, he basically had one big catch that saved his fantasy day.  Still, he had just the two catches for 69 yards, so he's still the boom or bust play that I say will likely still bust against the Jags this week.
Image result for roethlisberger james washington

Currently I'm about 20 spots higher than the ECR on Marquise Brown and James Washington.  I realize Hollywood Brown had big production on just a handful of snaps, but I don't see why he couldn't hit for another big play against a Cardinal secondary missing two starting corners.  And you know I'm expecting a bounce back game for Big Ben, and I think he'll throw more to Washington after Moncrief seemingly dropped everything against the Patriots.  I'm now crazy about Robby Anderson this week.  I'm not sure if he'll get shadowed by Denzel Ward or not, but that's what really scares me.  Well, that and the fact that he wasn't very productive in Week 1 while every ball seemed to go to Crowder.  I'm not too interested in Anderson just yet.

The guy I liked the most versus the ECR last week was Matt LaCosse, but he didn't even play.  The FantasyPros rankings lock at 1:00pm, so I wasn't able to make this change for the night game.  Hopefully if you considered him, you looked at the reports before kickoff.  The bad thing was, he wasn't even declared inactive.  He just didn't play!  Man, that's frustrating. I was down on another rookie in Noah Fant, who still isn't even listed as the starting tight end on the team's official depth chart.  He wasn't involved much in Week 1, definitely not like another rookie T.J. Hockenson was for the Lions.  

This week, I like Tyler Higbee as a top-20 play.  He saw a handful of targets and actually found the endzone in Week 1.  And to be a top-20 fantasy tight end, you really just need a few fantasy points.  I think he can get them in a game that's expected to be one of the highest scoring affairs of Week 2.  I'm down on Tyler Eifert this week, who I just can't trust yet until I see something from him.  The ECR has him as a top-20 play, but I'm not buying that.  Give me one Tyler but NOT TWO!

I had the Browns as my #1 fantasy defense in Week 1, but they pretty much crapped the bed.  I was also slightly down on the Rams, who were a top-12 defense based on the ECR.  They finished right around the #12 defense, so they were an OK play.  This week, I'm actually kind of high on the Falcons.  I guess I kind of like them in their home opener.  Still, I only have them ranked around the 20th best fantasy defense, so you're not really considering them.  If you're considering the Jags, I'd reconsider.  Right now they're a top-12 unit based on ECR, but I think they could get smoked again this week.  I'd shy away from them at Houston.  Deshaun Watson looked pretty good last week, and the Texans will put up points in this game.  The Jags could salvage a decent week with 4 or 5 sacks and maybe an INT, but that'll be it.

Image result for jags defense


Saturday, September 7, 2019

2019 NFL Week 1 Picks (ATS and O/U)

Image result for jameis winston bruce ariansSo here's another fun tool I have access to on the FantasyPros site now.  It's the weekly picks versus the spread, over/under, and moneyline.  For Week 1, I'm staying away from the moneyline and just picking the first two for all games.  I picked Green Bay and UNDER the total on Thursday night, so I'm off to a good start.  Let's see how the rest of Week 1 shakes out, shall we?


Wednesday, September 4, 2019

2019 Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings

Image result for excited philip riversThis NFL season really crept up on me, especially since I've been on vacation for the last few days.  It was supposed to be a few more, but for the second year in a row, we were evacuated early from the Outer Banks.  It's all good though.  I think now we'll just plan another vacation in a couple of months to try to get some down time before the holidays.

But enough about that.  Now it's time to get down to business.  Below are my Week 1 rankings, and I've made a few comments on various positions below the rankings about guys I like/don't like as much versus the FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings).

Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments, and I might even have one more thing for you before Sunday.  Stay tuned...

I have Philip Rivers as a top-10 fantasy QB against the Colts at home, but the current ECR is way down at 18.  I like his weapons, and without Melvin Gordon, I expect him to throw for 300+ yards and have a pair of touchdown passes.  I'm down on Mahomes and Rodgers in bad road matchups, and I tend to hate Big Ben on the road.  I don't see Roethisberger as a top-15 fantasy QB this season, and that especially goes for games on the road (and even more especially in Foxboro).

Image result for david montgomery bearsTwo guys I like a little more than the experts and who I'll be starting in DFS leagues on Sunday are Todd Gurley and Chris Carson.  I also believe a little more in Tevin Coleman, while the ECR seems to really like Matt Breida more against the Bucs.  We'll see how the touches play out, but I have a feeling Coleman will get more fantasy points and has a great chance to be a top-20 RB this week.  I don't really like some of the rookies in Week 1, as I'm down on David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, and Justice Hill.  Right now I'm at least 10 spots lower than the ECR on all of those guys.  I just don't expect teams to hand the ball off to rookies right out of the gates.  We'll see though!

If you go deep into my WR rankings, you'll notice I really like Paul Richardson (currently +32 versus ECR).  Washington will be playing from behind in this game, and Keenum doesn't have many options on the outside.  I think Richardson could see double digit targets and could be a high volume play in Week 1.  I also noticed the Seahawks cut Jaron Brown only to re-sign him.  I expect him to be the #2 WR against the Bengals in Week 1, but the ECR doesn't even have him as a top-100 WR.  That seems nuts.  He should easily be a top-50 receiver if he's in the starting lineup.  As for guys I don't like, I'm not super confident in Will Fuller's knee just yet, and I've been down on Courtland Sutton all preseason.  I don't like either versus the ECR this week.

Image result for matt lacosse patriotsThe guy I like the most versus the ECR is Matt LaCosse.  I have him as a top-20 TE, which is nearly 20 spots higher than the expert consensus.  Tom Brady doesn't have a ton of healthy targets, and he likes his tight ends.  He'll throw it to LaCosse a handful of times, and he's a sneaky play in DFS.  I'm down on another rookie in Noah Fant, who isn't even listed as the starting tight end on the team's official depth chart.  I don't expect him to be heavily involved in Week 1.

I have the Browns as my #1 fantasy defense this week, so I'm a few spots higher than the experts on them.  I also like Kansas City as a top-12 unit in Jacksonville.  I think Nick Foles could seriously struggle in his first start with his new team.  I'm slightly down on the Rams, who are a top-12 defense based on the ECR.  I have a feeling the Panthers will score a lot in this game and won't turn the ball over.  We'll see how it all plays out here in Week 1!


Real Football Predictions: 2019 Edition

If you've read my blog in previous years, you know I had been condensing my preseason articles into one big one.  This year, I changed it back up and have been releasing several throughout the preseason.  One part of the article I'm skipping this year is the list of guys I probably won't draft in any leagues.

The reason I'm not writing a whole article/section on that is because it's starting to trend from year to year, and I also don't like the idea of a "do not draft" list.  I probably won't end up with Pat Mahomes in any leagues because I'm not willing to draft a QB as high as other people.  I won't end up with someone like George Kittle or Eric Ebron because I have a hard time chasing last year's production at the TE position, and I tend to draft RBs and WRs in those ranges.  Oh, and I'm definitely not drafting a kicker because they're not even on rosters in my money league anymore.  But you know what?  If Mahomes slips into the 4th round, I'll absolutely draft him.  So that's why I don't like to say I have a "do not draft" list.  I'll draft pretty much anyone if the value is right.

Anyway, this article isn't for that.  I was just pointing out I'm not doing a list like that this year.  This article is all about my real football predictions for the 2019 season.  Well, it's mostly all about real predictions because after those, I've added some BOLD fantasy predictions in each division that I feel like no one is talking about.  I'll throw in my picks for who will make the playoffs and ultimately win the Super Bowl.  Two years ago, I only got two out of eight division winners right, and last year I only got 3!  But I did predict the Patriots over the Rams in the Super Bowl (yes, before the season started), so that was a good call.  We'll see if I can do better with the division winners this year, and I'm sure as usual, the fantasy picks will be a mixed bag.  But if you're reading this article, then you're looking for fantasy football predictions.  So I'll sprinkle in a few at the end.
Image result for jared goff rams
Before the first game of the NFL season, I like to take a few minutes to do my own simulation of every game on the schedule and use that to predict division winners, conference champs, and who's taking home the Lombardi trophy.

Here's what Bart's prediction machine spat out this season...  

AFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC West
NFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West

Here is some commentary on my predicted standings and one BOLD prediction for each division. 

AFC East
Real Prediction: The Patriots easily win the division again (BOOOORING!).  The Jets improve and can't wait for Tom Brady to retire.
BOLD Fantasy Prediction: For a month, I've had in this spot "The Bills trade or waive Shady McCoy, and Devin Singletary finishes as the best fantasy RB for the Bills this season."  Now that it's actually happened, that's not a bold prediction.  So I'll go with DeVante Parker finally breaking out in Year 5 and finishing as a top-20 WR.

AFC North
Real Prediction: The Steelers actually win the division (NOT Cleveland like everyone seems to think), and the Browns just barely get a Wild Card spot over Baltimore.
BOLD Fantasy Prediction: A.J. Green pulls a Doug Baldwin. He plays just a handful of games this year and retires in the offseason.

AFC South
Real Prediction: Watson is a legit MVP candidate and leads the Texans to win the division this year.  The Jags start of slow but ultimately grab a Wild Card spot behind their defense.
BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Duke Johnson hits the ground running and finishes as a top-10 fantasy RB with Lamar Miller lost for the season.

AFC West
Real Prediction: The Chargers miss the playoffs on the heels of the Melvin Gordon holdout.
BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Speaking of that Melvin Gordon holdout, it lasts all season a la Le'Veon Bell and Justin Jackson (not Austin Ekeler) finishes as a top-15 fantasy RB.

NFC East
Real Prediction: The Eagles will win the NFC East, but the Cowboys are right behind them and grab a Wild Card spot with the same record.
BOLD Fantasy prediction: Carson Wentz is the #1 fantasy QB in PPG this season.

NFC North
Real Prediction: The Vikings win the division, and the Bears shockingly miss the playoffs.
BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Marvin Jones finishes well ahead of Kenny Golladay in total fantasy points this season, but neither ends up in the top-15.

NFC South
Real Prediction: The Bucs surprise and win this division behind a great new coaching staff.
BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Alvin Kamara only misses one or two games, but Latavius Murray still finds a way to finish as a top-20 fantasy RB.

NFC West
Real Prediction: The Rams steamroll the competition in another one bid division.
BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Everyone had been talking about Rashaad Penny breaking out in Year 2, but no one seems to be envisioning a scenario in which Chris Carson is a top-5 fantasy RB.  I say it happens.

Here's what I predict for 2019:

AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
AFC Wild Card1: Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC Wild Card2: Cleveland Browns
[Chiefs over Texans in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: LA Rams
NFC Wild Card1: Dallas Cowboys
NFC Wild Card2: New Orleans Saints
[Rams over Cowboys in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: Rams over Chiefs

Week 1 rankings coming soon...