Real Football Predictions: 2019 Edition

If you've read my blog in previous years, you know I had been condensing my preseason articles into one big one.  This year, I changed it back up and have been releasing several throughout the preseason.  One part of the article I'm skipping this year is the list of guys I probably won't draft in any leagues. The reason I'm not writing a whole article/section on that is because it's starting to trend from year to year, and I also don't like the idea of a "do not draft" list.  I probably won't end up with Pat Mahomes in any leagues because I'm not willing to draft a QB as high as other people.  I won't end up with someone like George Kittle or Eric Ebron because I have a hard time chasing last year's production at the TE position, and I tend to draft RBs and WRs in those ranges.  Oh, and I'm definitely not drafting a kicker because they're not even on rosters in my money league anymore.  But you know what?  If Mahomes slips into the 4th round, I'll absolutely draft him.  So that's why I don't like to say I have a "do not draft" list.  I'll draft pretty much anyone if the value is right. Anyway, this article isn't for that.  I was just pointing out I'm not doing a list like that this year.  This article is all about my real football predictions for the 2019 season.  Well, it's mostly all about real predictions because after those, I've added some BOLD fantasy predictions in each division that I feel like no one is talking about.  I'll throw in my picks for who will make the playoffs and ultimately win the Super Bowl.  Two years ago, I only got two out of eight division winners right, and last year I only got 3!  But I did predict the Patriots over the Rams in the Super Bowl (yes, before the season started), so that was a good call.  We'll see if I can do better with the division winners this year, and I'm sure as usual, the fantasy picks will be a mixed bag.  But if you're reading this article, then you're looking for fantasy football predictions.  So I'll sprinkle in a few at the end. Before the first game of the NFL season, I like to take a few minutes to do my own simulation of every game on the schedule and use that to predict division winners, conference champs, and who's taking home the Lombardi trophy. Here's what Bart's prediction machine spat out this season...   AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West NE 12-4 CIN 4-12 HOU 10-6 KC 11-5 BUF 5-11 PIT 11-5 IND 6-10 DEN 8-8 NYJ 6-10 BAL 9-7 JAX 9-7 OAK 4-12 MIA 4-12 CLE 10-6 TEN 7-9 LAC 9-7 NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West WAS 4-12 GB 9-7 CAR 8-8 ARI 5-11 NYG 4-12 MIN 10-6 NO 10-6 SEA 8-8 DAL 10-6 DET 7-9 ATL 8-8 LAR 14-2 PHI 10-6 CHI 9-7 TB 10-6 SF 5-11 Here is some commentary on my predicted standings and one BOLD prediction for each division.  AFC East Real Prediction: The Patriots easily win the division again (BOOOORING!).  The Jets improve and can't wait for Tom Brady to retire. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: For a month, I've had in this spot "The Bills trade or waive Shady McCoy, and Devin Singletary finishes as the best fantasy RB for the Bills this season."  Now that it's actually happened, that's not a bold prediction.  So I'll go with DeVante Parker finally breaking out in Year 5 and finishing as a top-20 WR. AFC North Real Prediction: The Steelers actually win the division (NOT Cleveland like everyone seems to think), and the Browns just barely get a Wild Card spot over Baltimore. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: A.J. Green pulls a Doug Baldwin. He plays just a handful of games this year and retires in the offseason. AFC South Real Prediction: Watson is a legit MVP candidate and leads the Texans to win the division this year.  The Jags start of slow but ultimately grab a Wild Card spot behind their defense. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Duke Johnson hits the ground running and finishes as a top-10 fantasy RB with Lamar Miller lost for the season. AFC West Real Prediction: The Chargers miss the playoffs on the heels of the Melvin Gordon holdout. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Speaking of that Melvin Gordon holdout, it lasts all season a la Le'Veon Bell and Justin Jackson (not Austin Ekeler) finishes as a top-15 fantasy RB. NFC East Real Prediction: The Eagles will win the NFC East, but the Cowboys are right behind them and grab a Wild Card spot with the same record. BOLD Fantasy prediction: Carson Wentz is the #1 fantasy QB in PPG this season. NFC North Real Prediction: The Vikings win the division, and the Bears shockingly miss the playoffs. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Marvin Jones finishes well ahead of Kenny Golladay in total fantasy points this season, but neither ends up in the top-15. NFC South Real Prediction: The Bucs surprise and win this division behind a great new coaching staff. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Alvin Kamara only misses one or two games, but Latavius Murray still finds a way to finish as a top-20 fantasy RB. NFC West Real Prediction: The Rams steamroll the competition in another one bid division. BOLD Fantasy Prediction: Everyone had been talking about Rashaad Penny breaking out in Year 2, but no one seems to be envisioning a scenario in which Chris Carson is a top-5 fantasy RB.  I say it happens. Here's what I predict for 2019: AFC East: New England Patriots AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers AFC South: Houston Texans AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs AFC Wild Card1: Jacksonville Jaguars AFC Wild Card2: Cleveland Browns [Chiefs over Texans in AFC Championship Game] NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles NFC North: Minnesota Vikings NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC West: LA Rams NFC Wild Card1: Dallas Cowboys NFC Wild Card2: New Orleans Saints [Rams over Cowboys in NFC Championship Game] Super Bowl Prediction: Rams over Chiefs

Week 1 rankings coming soon...

Cheers,

Bart