First off, here's the list of guys I said I'd let someone else draft. This is the ENTIRE list, and I must say that I'm pretty glad I didn't end up with any of these dudes...
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| Dude, look around...cheer up! |
I had been a Ryan Mathews owner for what seemed like every year he's been in the league, but I wasn't about to draft him this season. Between the injury history and the inconsistency, I suggested drafting someone like Rashad Jennings instead of Mathews. That's exactly what I did actually, and it worked out pretty well. Jennings was a stud for me in the first half of the season (until he got himself hurt coincidentally), but then I used him in a deal to get Megatron. Can't complain there. As for Mathews, he was nearly a top-20 fantasy RB when healthy (right behind Jennings in fantasy points/game as a matter of fact). But since he only played in 6 games, Ryan Mathews found himself well outside of the top-50 RBs in 2014.
David Wilson or Jermichael Finley
Fred Jackson
Maybe Father Time finally has caught up with Fred. The injury bug got him for a couple of games this season, and his production in the running game wasn't nearly as good as in year's past. In fact, he had his lowest average yards/carry this season (3.7), and it was his involvement in the passing game that kept him as a top-25 fantasy RB. We'll see what happens with C.J. Spiller in the offseason, but I don't think Fred Jackson will be the RB to own in Buffalo moving forward.
Jay Cutler
OK, so Jay actually was a top-10 fantasy QB before getting benched for Jimmy Clausen in Week 16 (yikes!), and he finished as the #14 ranked QB in my league. He was pretty consistent in the first 6 weeks of the season, but then he went back and forth between big games and sigle digit fantasy points the rest of the year. I'll continue to be down on Cutler every year he stays employed in the NFL.
David Wilson or Jermichael Finley
If you recall back to the preseason, ESPN had David Wilson ranked as a top-40 RB and Finley as a top-25 TE (even though the latter wasn't even on a roster at the time). I didn't rank either, and neither played a snap in 2014. I'm not sure what Finley is doing these days, but I hope for Wilson's sake, we'll see him in the 2016 Olympics!
Percy Harvin
For a guy who had never eclipsed the 1000-yard receiving mark, I thought the experts were way too high on Harvin before the season started. I ranked him in the mid-20s among WRs, and most experts had him well inside their top-20. We all know what happened next: the Seahawks traded him to the Jets and he was barely heard of the entire season. I'll let someone else continue to believe the hype on Percy.
Reggie Wayne
I ranked this old timer as my #45 WR in my last preseason update before my fantasy draft, and most experts had him WAY higher than that. Not only was Wayne coming off a torn ACL, but I just didn't think he was worth the high price tag anymore. At the time I said "I'd much rather reach for Hilton a couple of rounds earlier", and I sure wish I had done that! Either way, I'm glad I didn't end up drafting Reggie Wayne. He had a decent start to the 2014 campaign, but he was very inconsistent after Week 5 and was likely on the waiver wire in most leagues as he finished outside of the top-50 WRs.
Ladarius Green OR Antonio Gates
I guess this is the first name that I could honestly say I would have been OK with on my roster. But there was so much preseason hype around Ladarius Green, there was no way I was touching Gates. Well done if you had the guts to draft Gates (or the smarts to pick him up off the waiver wire before he blew up for 3 TDs in Week 2).
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| What a waste of a pick this guy was, even in the last round! |
During my fantasy drafts, the only thing I pay less attention to than bye weeks is probably the kicker position. But my point here was that Week 4 is way too early to be forced to make a decision on waiving a kicker or a rookie receiver with potential. If you drafted a guy like Prater or Hauschka, that's exactly what you could have been faced with. And in the case of Prater, he actually started the year with a 4-game suspension and then got cut anyway! The first rule with kickers is to always take them in the last round. But I think a second rule should be to try to draft one with a bye week of 8 or later.
QB: Josh McCown
McCown didn't have a terrible start to the season, but when he injured his thumb in Week 3 in a blowout loss in Atlanta, he didn't gain the starting gig back until Week 10 (coincidentally, against Atlanta). The Bucs only won 2 games all year, and one of those was with McCown against my Redskins. But this wasn't so much a bad call as a really bad team compounded with an early-season injury. We'll see what happens with McCown in 2015 because with the #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft, I wouldn't be surpised to see Tampa Bay use it on Mariota.
RB: Toby Gerhart
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| I won't hide behind my bad calls. This one was rough. |
I wasn't the only one who liked the Gerhart move to Jacksonville, but this was probably the worst pick in the first couple rounds of anyone's fantasy draft this year. I will pat myself on the back here though because I actually picked up Gerhart and started him in my Week 16 third place game. He had his best game of the year in that matchup against the Titans and helped me get my money back!
RB: Joique Bell
Finally, a good call! He had a bit of a slow start this year, but after sitting out Week 5 with a concussion, Joique got things going and was a top-15 fantasy RB this year. Move over, Reggie...
I actually ended up drafting this guy, and his stock was sky high through the first half of the season. In his first 8 games he had 6 TD catches, but then Romo just stopped looking his way in the redzone. At least I was able to deal him when his stock was still high, but his jump to the "next level" was definitely short-lived.
WR: Rueben Randle
Another bad call here, and it definitely wasn't for a lack of opportunity. We all know about Odell Beckham Jr. now, but he didn't hit the scene until Week 5 due to injury. And it was Week 6 when Victor Cruz was lost for the year. All the while, Rueben Randle was a target monster! But what did he do with those targets? Not much, really. Through Week 15, he had one week of double-digit fantasy production all year. Of course he finished very strong in his last two games of the season, helping no one in the process since there's no way anyone had him in their fantasy lineup at that point. In the end, it was the rookie Beckham who made the quick next level jump and not Randle.
TE: Kyle Rudolph
There was a lot of talk of Rudolph having a big year with new OC Norv Turner. But after Week 3, the young tight end missed 8 weeks due to a sports hernia. It's the second year in a row that Rudolph has had a lost season due to injury, but I'm sure he'll be a sleeper candidate yet again in 2015...
TE: Kyle RudolphThere was a lot of talk of Rudolph having a big year with new OC Norv Turner. But after Week 3, the young tight end missed 8 weeks due to a sports hernia. It's the second year in a row that Rudolph has had a lost season due to injury, but I'm sure he'll be a sleeper candidate yet again in 2015...
Another article I did in the preseason started by asking the question "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?" Of course at the time no one knew the answer to that question, but I thought it'd be kind of cool to throw a guess out there. I prefaced this little exercise by saying that "I might even get a couple of these right...but I'll probably get most of them wrong." So let's see these questions, my original answers, and who the answer really ended up being when it was all said and done.
(NOTE: I removed the ones that didn't end up with an actual "answer". For instance, no one fit the "Josh Gordon" category this season.)
Quesiton: Who is this year's Zac Stacy?
[Description: A rookie (later-round NFL draft pick) who is in a clouded backfield situation, UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues, but could get a shot sooner rather than later to be the "bellcow" running back.]
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| This year's Zac Stacy? Aghh! So obvious!!! |
Actual Answer: Tre Mason
How's that for irony? The answer to this question was right there in the very same backfield! Not only that, but it was pretty much the same time frame as in 2013 with Stacy. To be fair, Taliaferro wasn't a terrible guess. At the time, Ray Rice was set to just miss the first two games of the season, and it was thought that Bernard Pierce would be the starter. After some ineffective play from Pierce, Taliaferro and Forsett got their chances as well. Of course now we all know that it was Forsett who came out on top when the dust settled. As for Tre Mason, we'll see if he can keep the job in 2015 or if the Rams continue their backfield shenanigans.
Quesiton: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself in a nice spot to be a feature running back.]
My Original Answer: Ben Tate
Actual Answer: Mark Ingram
No one really fits this category quite like Knowshon in 2013, but Ingram is the closest thing to it. A former Heisman Trophy winner and 2011 1st round pick by the Saints, Mark Ingram found himself in somewhat of a make-or-break year. Well, he was making things happen in the first couple of weeks of the 2014 season until he broke his hand and missed 3 games (see what I did there...?). Anyway, he picked up where he left off and finished as a top-15 fantasy RB.
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
My Original Answer: Dexter McCluster
Actual Answer: Darren SprolesThe easy answer here is Justin Forsett, but he didn't exactly sneak into the top-20. The guy was a top-10 fantasy running back this year! The obvious answer here is Sproles. I mean, how many comparisons do you think Danny Woodhead has gotten to Darren Sproles during his football career? It's only fitting that we throw it back to Sproles and recognize his shiftiness and how he was able to nearly sneak into the top-25 RBs this season.
Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen?
[Description: Rookie WR who finds himself on a team with a solid QB in need of a #1 WR, so he becomes that guy. Must be late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues.]
My Original Answer: Jordan Matthews
Actual Answer: Odell Beckham Jr...also Jordan Matthews (sort of)
In what ended up being the year of the rookie WR, it's not surprising that a couple of guys fit this category. And will you look at that? One of them is the guy I picked in the preseason! The fact is, I almost talked up up Kelvin Benjamin in this spot, but a lot of people were expecting him to fill that void in Carolina. As a result, he rose to the level of Watkins and Evans in a lot of fantasy drafts. But Mathews and Beckham were flying under the radar in the preseason, and both ended up as top-25 WRs this season. However, it's Odell Beckham Jr. who really fits this category. With the injury to Victor Cruz, New York needed someone to step up and be the guy. It's clear that Beckham, Jr. is that guy and may continue to be in the future for the Giants. And like Keenan Allen in 2013, he finished as a top-20 WR even though he wasn't a big part of the offense until the second half of the season. Unlike Allen, Odell finished as a top-5 fantasy WR and actually was #1 among all WRs in fantasy poins per game!
Q: Who is this year's Carolina Panthers?
[Description: Average fantasy defense the previous year (Carolina was around #15 in 2012) but a consistent top-3 fantasy defense this season (Carolina ended up as #2 fantasy defense in 2013). Has to be undrafted in many leagues, which has me excluding the Broncos.]
My Original Answer: New Orleans Saints
Actual Answer: Buffalo Bills
Not. Even. Close.
Talk about a tough one to predict though. This one is nearly impossible. Earlier in the year, I would have said this category would go to the Detroit Lions. But they had 4 or 5 weeks where they didn't really show up...and we're talking about games against the NFC South! As for the Bills, they finished as the #2 fantasy defense (just behind the Texans). They were selected outside of the top-12 in nearly all fantasy drafts, so they were likely a waiver wire add. Good for you if you were able to ride them all year. Even better if you had the guts to start them against the Broncos and Packers late in the season because they did just fine in those tough matchups.
Q: Who is this year's Andy Dalton?
[Description: Somewhat of a boring mid-round fantasy pick, a guy in his 3rd or 4th year in the league, goes from a #12 or so fantasy QB one year to top-5 the next.]
Actual Answer: Ryan Tannehill (sort of)
I almost picked Tannehill instead of Josh McCown for my "QB Ready for the Next Level" too. Oh well. Another missed opportunity. Anyway, Tannehill doesn't quite fit this category because he wasn't a top-5 fantasy QB this year. But he was in the top-10. Close enough, right? Also, he's been underrated all year...pretty much until Week 13 when people decided to jump on the Tannehill bandwagon. He had a nice matchup against the Jets, and most people were ranking him in the top-5. What did he do? He had his only game all year without a TD. Ha! But seriously, Tannehill was solid this year and really made a leap to that next level of QBs. As long as he still has weapons like Lamar Miller, Mike Wallace, and Jarvis Landry in 2015, I don't think many people will be sleeping on him.
So what about REAL football? Before the season started, I looked at every single matchup in the 2014 NFL season and did my own personal simulation. I was left with what I thought might be the storylines of each division, but let's see what I got right and what I got wrong...
AFC East
What I said: The Patriots will continue to dominate a weak division, but I think they'll dominate the rest of the league along the way too. Not only will Tom Brady play like an MVP at age 37, but the defense is going to play their part too.
What happened: New England locked up the division in Week 15 with a 41-13 win over the Dolphins. Many people were worried about the Pats after the first 4 weeks of the season, but they only lost one game after that...on the road in Lambeau 26-21 (no, I'm not counting the Week 17 loss to Buffalo because that was a meaningless game and the Pats didn't even play their starters the whole game). Oh and New England was easily a top-10 fantasy defense this year too.
What I said: The Patriots will continue to dominate a weak division, but I think they'll dominate the rest of the league along the way too. Not only will Tom Brady play like an MVP at age 37, but the defense is going to play their part too.
What happened: New England locked up the division in Week 15 with a 41-13 win over the Dolphins. Many people were worried about the Pats after the first 4 weeks of the season, but they only lost one game after that...on the road in Lambeau 26-21 (no, I'm not counting the Week 17 loss to Buffalo because that was a meaningless game and the Pats didn't even play their starters the whole game). Oh and New England was easily a top-10 fantasy defense this year too.
AFC North
What I said: I think this division will get back to producing two playoff teams this season. I'm hoping the other is Baltimore, but I could realistically see it being any of them. Like last year, I think Cincinnati will make the playoffs and the Ravens might be on the outside looking in. Unlike last year, I think the Steelers will improve on defense and somehow win this division for the first time since 2010, when they made it all the way to the Super Bowl.
What happened: Pretty damn close with this one. I nailed it with picking the Steelers to win the division, but three teams actually got in instead of the two I predicted. Well it's January, so I guess I can temporarily forget about the Redskins and root for my wife's Ravens now!
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| I always look forward to this matchup... |
What happened: Pretty damn close with this one. I nailed it with picking the Steelers to win the division, but three teams actually got in instead of the two I predicted. Well it's January, so I guess I can temporarily forget about the Redskins and root for my wife's Ravens now!
AFC South
What I said: I'm going out on a limb and not sticking with Indy, even though I think the rest of the division is likely to still be weak (especially the Jags). I won't be surprised if Ken Whisenhunt brings some magic to Tennessee. If Locker can stay healthy, maybe it'll be the Titans (and not the Texans) who become this year's surprise division winner.
What happened: Next year I'm sticking with Indy. I did make the caveat that Locker needed to stay healthy (which he didn't), but the Titans were just awful this year. I have no excuse for this pick, but it really is my only bad pick of the "Real Football Predictions".
What I said: I'm going out on a limb and not sticking with Indy, even though I think the rest of the division is likely to still be weak (especially the Jags). I won't be surprised if Ken Whisenhunt brings some magic to Tennessee. If Locker can stay healthy, maybe it'll be the Titans (and not the Texans) who become this year's surprise division winner.
What happened: Next year I'm sticking with Indy. I did make the caveat that Locker needed to stay healthy (which he didn't), but the Titans were just awful this year. I have no excuse for this pick, but it really is my only bad pick of the "Real Football Predictions".
AFC West
What I said: As long as Peyton Manning is healthy, this will be Denver (and it's not even close). I also think the Chiefs will make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since...probably before I even played fantasy football. If Manning misses time due to injury, it'll probably crush my fantasy team. It also would open the door wide open for KC to take the division.
What happened: Like New England, Denver locked up their division in Week 15 (so it wasn't close). As for the Chiefs? They finished 9-7 and I believe were the last team in the playoff picture on the outside looking in.
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| Philly missed Foles down the stretch |
What I said: I'm probably being conservative with 9 wins for the Eagles, but I think they'll take the division again no matter how many wins they end up with. But their first Super Bowl? I don't think so...
What happened: Philly actually got their 9th win in Dallas on Thanksgiving (Week 13), but then they lost their next three, including one in Washington! That being said...how 'bout them Cowboys?!? Dallas won the division and Philly missed the playoffs, even with a 10-6 record. Like the Chiefs in the AFC, the Eagles were the best team in the NFC not to make the playoffs.
NFC North
What I said: I don't doubt Green Bay will win this division for the 4th year in a row, but Detroit could be really close.
What happened: The Lions and Packers played for the division in Week 17, and Green Bay came out on top while Detroit got a Wild Card spot.
What I said: I don't doubt Green Bay will win this division for the 4th year in a row, but Detroit could be really close.
What happened: The Lions and Packers played for the division in Week 17, and Green Bay came out on top while Detroit got a Wild Card spot.
NFC South
What I said: I'm rolling with the Saints in 2014. I think this will be one of the toughest divisions in the league this season, and I actually think the Panthers will end up 9-7 somehow...
What happened: One of the toughest divisions in the league? Ha! OK, so I guess that's two bad calls in this section...and I didn't get the division winner right with New Orleans. Carolina became the first team to win the NFC South in back-to-back seasons, albeit with a record of 7-8-1.
What I said: I'm rolling with the Saints in 2014. I think this will be one of the toughest divisions in the league this season, and I actually think the Panthers will end up 9-7 somehow...
What happened: One of the toughest divisions in the league? Ha! OK, so I guess that's two bad calls in this section...and I didn't get the division winner right with New Orleans. Carolina became the first team to win the NFC South in back-to-back seasons, albeit with a record of 7-8-1.
NFC West
What I said: San Fran and Seattle will continue to steamroll the league with their defenses. Both will make the playoffs, but I'll take the Niners to win the division. I don't think Arizona will be that second NFC Wild Card.
What happened: Seattle and San Fran both had top-5 defenses, but the 49ers had a horrible offense, specifically their passing game. They missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record and Seattle won the division. The Cardinals started the year 9-1, lost Carson Palmer and also 4 of their last 6 games, but hung on to finish 11-5 and get the other NFC Wild Card spot.
I'm sticking with the half that is still alive for my Super Bowl pick. I'll take the Pats to win the whole thing...
Once again, I want to thank my readers out there. I know there aren't a lot of you, but it's good to hear that people are actually reading it (and some even enjoying and using the information). Hopefully I'll still be able to make the time in 2015 to do all of the preseason articles, rankings, re-rankings, weekly rankings, and everything else that makes this blog what it is. Thanks again, enjoy the playoffs, and Happy New Year to everyone!
What I said: San Fran and Seattle will continue to steamroll the league with their defenses. Both will make the playoffs, but I'll take the Niners to win the division. I don't think Arizona will be that second NFC Wild Card.
What happened: Seattle and San Fran both had top-5 defenses, but the 49ers had a horrible offense, specifically their passing game. They missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record and Seattle won the division. The Cardinals started the year 9-1, lost Carson Palmer and also 4 of their last 6 games, but hung on to finish 11-5 and get the other NFC Wild Card spot.
For reference, here was my full list of predictions:
AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Denver Broncos
AFC Wild Card1: Kansas City Chiefs
AFC Wild Card2: Cincinnati Bengals
[New England over Denver in AFC Championship Game]
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
NFC Wild Card1: Seattle Seahawks
NFC Wild Card2: Detroit Lions
[New Orleans over Seattle in NFC Championship Game]
Super Bowl Prediction: New England over New Orleans
I'm sticking with the half that is still alive for my Super Bowl pick. I'll take the Pats to win the whole thing...Once again, I want to thank my readers out there. I know there aren't a lot of you, but it's good to hear that people are actually reading it (and some even enjoying and using the information). Hopefully I'll still be able to make the time in 2015 to do all of the preseason articles, rankings, re-rankings, weekly rankings, and everything else that makes this blog what it is. Thanks again, enjoy the playoffs, and Happy New Year to everyone!
Cheers,
Bart
