Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Week 13 Rankings

Week 12 is in the books, and I still have a slight chance of making the playoffs.  I'm now sitting at 5-7, but a big Week 13 win (and a loss from both of the 6-6 guys) could land me in the sixth and final playoff spot.  I'll really need a big win this week though, as in a ton of points to catch up with what could potentially be those other 6-7 teams at the end of Week 13.  We'll see how it all plays out, but I'm probably going to need 120+ points to beat the guy I'm playing anyway, so I need to get as many points as possible, starting with these rankings...

1.Peyton Manning
2.Tom Brady
3.Aaron Rodgers
4.Drew Brees
5.Matt Ryan
6.Matthew Stafford
7.Eli Manning
9.Cam Newton
10.Tony Romo
11.Colin Kaepernick
12.Andrew Luck
13.Matt Schaub
14.Ryan Fitzpatrick
15.Andy Dalton
16.Josh Freeman
17.Chad Henne
18.Carson Palmer 
19.Philip Rivers
20.Joe Flacco                              

Aside from Aaron Rodgers, I'd have to say that my QB rankings weren't too bad last week.  Of course, I think most people missed on Rodgers, as he is always expected to post big numbers.  I moved Romo into the top 10 last week, and although the Cowgirls lost to my Redskins, Romo still put up great numbers.  Another guy I talked up a lot in Week 12 was Andy Dalton, who I ranked way up there (even ahead of Drew Brees).  Dalton finished just outside of the top-5, but he did finish ahead of Brees.  I ranked Jake Locker (toward the bottom, but still ranked), thinking he'd put up 200+ yards and a couple of scores.  He only got one score, but he did round out the top-20.

I will say that I was wrong about refusing to rank Chad Henne.  He was a solid play again last week, and he has a pretty favorable schedule for the rest of the season.  I'll definitely be ranking him this week, and most likely in the weeks to come as well.  I've also added Colin Kaepernick to this list, which is now rounded out by Rivers and Flacco at the bottom.  It's crazy to look at this list now versus the early weeks of the fantasy season.

The obvious names are in my top ten, but you'll notice RGIII has dropped considerably.  He's had great back to back games, but I think the Giants D will slow him down in a big NFC game for both teams.  Dalton is probably the biggest mover down the list, as his matchup is a lot less favorable this week as opposed to last week.  I like Fitzpatrick and Henne quite a bit this week, as they both have good matchups (against each other).  At this point in the season, if your starting QB is a guy like Rivers or Flacco, you're probably not thinking playoffs anyway.  But if you are, I'd suggest one of those guys instead of them (at least for this week).  

1.Arian Foster
2.Trent Richardson 
3.Adrian Peterson
4.Doug Martin
5.Ray Rice
6.Chris Johnson
7.CJ Spiller
8.Frank Gore
9.Jamaal Charles
10.Marshawn Lynch
11.Alfred Morris
12.Mikel LeShoure
13.Marcel Reece
14.Stevan Ridley
15.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
16.Bryce Brown
17.Beanie Wells
18.Michael Turner
19.Ahmad Bradshaw
20.Steven Jackson
21.Ryan Mathews
22.Felix Jones
23.Darren Sproles
24.Michael Bush
25.Reggie Bush
26.Rashad Jennings
27.Shonn Greene
28.Jonathan Dwyer
29.DeAngelo Williams
30.Knowshown Moreno
31.Vick Ballard
32.James Starks
33.Shane Vereen
34.Jacquizz Rodgers
35.Daniel Thomas
36.Chris Ivory
37.Ronnie Hillman
38.Danny Woodhead
39.Donald Brown
40.Mark Ingram

Doug Martin continues to impress, and he belongs in the top 5 from here on out.  He's playing a tough Broncos defense this week, so I'm not going to put him in the top spot.  But from Week 14 on, he'll probably be there.  For now, I'll stick with Arian Foster at #1.

I'm getting my rankings out early again, so I'm assuming a lot based on little injury news as of right now.  Last week I excluded guys like McCoy, Murray, Fred Jackson, and McFadden to name a few.  Those guys are staying on the sideline once again.  If I get a chance to update my rankings, I will.  But for now, I'm assuming those guys (and others) are out.  Fred Jackson isn't out, but the coach has basically said that Spiller will take the majority of carries from here on out, so I don't see much value in playing him at this point.  Add Forte to the injured list too (*sigh*).

Last week Chris Johnson was my #1, and I kept guys with tough matchups like AP and Richardson well into the top-10.  Surprisingly, Richardson was the only one of the three to produce at that level.  I nearly had Bryce Brown in my top-20, but I didn't see him finishing as the #1 fantasy RB for the week (as I'm sure no one did).  Well done if you picked him up and played him on MNF (I tried but someone else scooped him up).  I did have Green-Ellis ranked higher than many of the experts last week, and he went off on that horrible Raiders defense.  I'll continue to rank position players highly against Oakland for the rest of the foreseeable future, and this week Trent Richardson will have the #2 spot on my list, in part due to this matchup.

Some other names that move up the list include Mikel LeShoure, Marcel Reece, Beanie Wells, and of course, Bryce Brown.  Ryan Mathews continues to slide down my list, and it pains me because with Forte and McCoy both likely out for Week 13, I'm going to be scrambling for points.  Hopefully I can strike gold with a waiver wire pickup, but I'll probably get stuck starting Vick Ballard.  That sounds pretty desperate...and it is.

1.Demaryius Thomas
2.Andre Johnson
3.Calvin Johnson
4.AJ Green
5.Dez Bryant
6.Julio Jones
7.Vincent Jackson
8.Brandon Marshall
9.Wes Welker
10.Randall Cobb
11.Reggie Wayne
12.Victor Cruz
13.Jordy Nelson
14.Roddie White 
15.Hakeem Nicks
16.Marques Colston
17.Eric Decker
18.Steve Johnson
19.Cecil Shorts
20.Steve Smith
21.Pierre Garcon
22.Denarius Moore
23.Justin Blackmon
24.Danario Alexander
25.Michael Crabtree
26.Lance Moore
27.Larry Fitzgerald
28.Torrey Smith
29.T.Y. Hilton
30.Golden Tate 
31.Ryan Broyles
32.Chris Givens
33.Sidney Rice
34.Dwayne Bowe
35.Brian Hartline
36.Greg Jennings
37.Josh Gordon
38.Mike Williams
39.Mike Wallace
40.Brandon LaFell
41.Jeremy Maclin
42.Malcom Floyd

AJ Green got the kiss of death last week, as he finished well outside the top-10, though he didn't have a bad game.  I moved Randall Cobb into the top-10 (and Jordy out), so of course Jordy had the better week.  I'm sticking with ranking Cobb higher though, as Rodgers just had a bad game all-around.  I expect both to bounce back this week against the Vikings in Lambeau.  I'm not ranking Percy Harvin again this week, but if he goes, he is a top-20 play (maybe top-10 if he's 100%).

I finally ranked Denario Alexander last week, but he had a modest game as compared to his previous two (still rankable though).  I put Dez Bryant into my top-10 last week, and he finished as the #1 WR for Week 12.  Vincent Jackson was back in the top-10 as well, and although he didn't find the endzone, he did have 95 yards and continued his consistent fantasy play.  Andre Johnson stayed near the top for me last week, and I'm going to continue to rank him high, especially while he's hot.  I'm also going to keep Dez Bryant in the top-5, as he is clearly becoming Romo's favorite target and the Eagles continue to give up big plays down the field.  I've also moved the Jags WRs up the list a bit, as Chad Henne is starting to make them relevant in the fantasy world.  You'll still find names like Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin on this list, but they are waaaaay down there.  I actually removed Brandon Lloyd from the list altogether, so look for him to have at least 20 fantasy points this week against the Dolphins.

1.Jimmy Graham
2.Tony Gonzalez 
3.Aaron Hernandez
4.Jason Witten
5.Owen Daniels
6.Jermaine Gresham
7.Antonio Gates
8.Brandon Myers
9.Vernon Davis
10.Greg Olsen
11.Dustin Keller
12.Jermichael Finley

Finally, Aaron Hernandez returned to the lineup last week, but he had a quiet return to action.  This week, I think he becomes a big part of the offense for the Patriots, and I have him ranked accordingly.  In a tough week for the top tight ends, I liked Jermaine Gresham as a top-5 play against Oakland.  He finished at #6, but he finished ahead of all of the usual suspects (Graham, Gonzo, Witten, etc.).  I had him ranked at #4, and he didn't disappoint.  Again, continue to play any and all players against Oakland!!!  To be fair, in that same game, I liked Brandon Myers as a top-10 tight end, but he finished with a mere 37 yards.  However, he continues to be a consistent threat in that offense, so he'll remain in my top-10 fantasy TEs this week.  Speaking of "top-10", I decided to narrow down my tight end list to 12.  I almost stopped at 10, but then I thought I might as well rank as many tight ends as there are teams in my league (and a lot of other leagues).  If you don't have one of those top 12, well, you're SOL.  Good luck with Scott Chandler or Brandon Pettigrew.


I was going back and forth on my streaming defense last week, but I ended up playing the Bengals instead of the Patriots.  Both had good matchups, and both put up solid points, but of course the Patriots ended up as the top defense in Week 12.  I played it safe and didn't want to chase those defensive TDs, and that's exactly what New England got against the Jets on Thanksgiving night.  I can't complain too much though because the Bengals did finish as a top-10 defense for the week.  The Broncos broke the trend of getting a lot of fantasy points against the Chiefs, but the Rams were a team I ranked in the top-10 who scored big on defense in Week 12.

The Bears and Niners continue to be solid no matter who they play, and if the Steelers are still without Big Ben this week, I like the Ravens a lot.  I mean, look at what the Browns did against the Steelers last week!  I also like the Jets to bounce back after that horrible loss and take it out on the Cardinals.  Other matchups to look at this week are Carolina against the Chiefs (duh, people!) and the Cowboys at home against the Eagles.  They haven't been one of the better defenses this season, but they played well against Foles and company just a couple of weeks ago, and I look to them to keep the Eagles losing streak going.

Good luck in Week 13!


Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Week 12 Rankings

The bye weeks are over, and my fantasy season is just about over as well.  I'm hanging on to a thread, basically hoping that this guy beats that guy (and so on), but I'm not going to worry about it too much until after Week 12.  At this point, all I can do is put the best squad out there, try to win, and hope that come Week 13 my league has a bunch of teams at 6-7.  That scenario is very unlikely, and so I don't exactly control my own destiny right now.  But if it DOES happen, I'm going to need as many points as possible.  I could go on and rant about how the guy in Week 11 put up 150 on me with RG3, Andre300, Gronk and company...meanwhile others in the league put up anywhere from 30 to 80 points.  I mean, that stuff happens every week.  It's fantasy football.  I'm going to save you more of my whining and just get into the Week 12 rankings.  It's a shortened week for 6 teams playing on Thanksgiving, so I'm trying to get these out as early as possible.  Things may change between now and Thursday (and definitely between now and Sunday/Monday), but I'm going with what I know right now.

1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Peyton Manning
3.Tom Brady
5.Andy Dalton
6.Drew Brees
7.Andrew Luck
8.Matt Ryan
9.Matthew Stafford
10.Tony Romo
11.Cam Newton
12.Josh Freeman
13.Carson Palmer 
14.Eli Manning
15.Matt Schaub
16.Joe Flacco
17.Philip Rivers
18.Ryan Fitzpatrick
19.Jake Locker
20.Russel Wilson                               

Well, I did get a last minute deal done in my league.  I had to give up AP in a multi-player trade, but I got a solid keeper in Cam Newton as part of it.  He also finished as the #11 QB in Week 11 and a decent upgrade from Philip Rivers for me, though it was probably all for nothing as far as this season is concerned.  Carson Palmer cracked my top 10, and he also finished up there (well ahead of guys like Ryan and Stafford, who I was afraid to rank him ahead of).  I was finally wrong about Ryan Fitzpatrick, as he played like crap against a weak Dolphins secondary.  And yes, he finished way behind Tony Romo.

Speaking of Romo, I'm moving him up into the top 10 this week.  He's going up against my Redskins, who don't seem to be able to stop the pass very well, and they also don't seem to be able to stop the Cowboys too well at all on Thanksgiving.  Hopefully I'm wrong about this one, but I don't think I will be.  I'm keeping this week's list at 20 again, so Brandon Weeden drops off for now.  He continues to put up solid numbers, but I don't think that'll happen at all this week against the Steelers.  I'm also not touching either QB in the Vikings/Bears matchup.  At this point with no more byes, there are just better options.  I'm also leaving Michael Vick off my list because that situation is still unclear, and I feel like even if he does go, he'll be limited.  I wouldn't trust either Eagle QB this week for that reason.  I'm also not ranking Colin Kaepernik because after Harbaugh's post-game comments, I don't think anyone knows who will be the Week 12 QB against the Saints right now.  If it does end up being Kaepernik, I'd probably put him around 15 or 16.  I refuse to rank Chad Henne.  I don't care what he did against the Texans.  I do not trust him to repeat that effort.  If you do, go for it.

One guy I like a lot this week is Andy Dalton.  If you're streaming defenses against the Chiefs, it also seems to make sense to stream QBs against the Raiders as of late.  Of course, this likely isn't as easy to do as streaming defenses, but when it comes to rankings I can do it however I want.  I like the Red Rocket as a top-5 play this week, yes even ahead of Brees (who I moved down, mostly because he's playing against the 49ers).  Jake Locker also makes my list this week.  He didn't put up a ton of yards in Week 10, but I have a feeling with the extra rest on the bye week and going up against Jacksonville, he'll put up 200+ yards and a couple of scores.

1.Chris Johnson
2.Doug Martin
3.Arian Foster
4.Adrian Peterson
5.Marshawn Lynch
6.Ray Rice
7.Trent Richardson 
8.Frank Gore
9.CJ Spiller
10.Matt Forte
11.Stevan Ridley
12.Alfred Morris
13.Jamaal Charles
14.Steven Jackson
15.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
16.Ahmad Bradshaw
17.Marcel Reece
18.Ryan Mathews
19.Felix Jones
20.Reggie Bush
21.Bryce Brown
22.Mikel LeShoure
23.Darren Sproles
24.Michael Turner
25.Ronnie Hillman
26.James Starks
27.Jonathan Stewart
28.Jonathan Dwyer
29.Shonn Greene
30.Jalen Parmele
31.Vick Ballard
32.Beanie Wells
33.Mark Ingram
34.Kendall Hunter
35.Jacquizz Rodgers
36.Andre Brown
37.Daniel Thomas
38.Danny Woodhead
39.Donald Brown
40.Ronnie Brown

I'm going to continue to discuss Doug Martin because the experts all had him as the #2 or #3 RB last week.  I wasn't quite ready to do that, and he finished at #7 (right where I had him).  That being said, it was a bit of a rough week for the top RBs, so he did pretty well with really only Trent Richardson as a top back who finished ahead of him.  So I guess I'm ready to move Martin into the top 5 this week.  Twist my arm.

I stayed on the Marcel Reece train last week, and said he'd have another 100+ total yard game and find the endzone.  Well he didn't score (again), but he nearly got 200 total yards and lots of fantasy owners plenty of points.  I also had Steven Jackson ranked pretty highly, and while he didn't go off on the Jets, he did have a solid game similar to Rice and McCoy in a weird week for the big fantasy point RBs.  I dropped Willis McGahee and Frank Gore considerably in my rankings last week, and while both finished outside the top 25, McGahee was playing pretty well until the injury in the 2nd quarter.

My rankings this week are assuming several key guys won't be suiting up in Week 12: McCoy, Murray, Fred Jackson, and McFadden to name a few.  Again, keep an eye on those injuries as the week unfolds.  This week I'm going with Chris Johnson as my #1, and I'm keeping guys with tough matchups like AP and Richardson well into the top-10, as I believe them to be matchup-proof.  I'm not sure who I'll have higher and lower than the experts since I'm getting these rankings out on a Tuesday, but maybe I'll follow-up with a little more later this week (but I make no promises...Turkey Day is priority #1!).

1.AJ Green
2.Demaryius Thomas
3.Calvin Johnson
4.Reggie Wayne
5.Wes Welker
6.Andre Johnson
7.Vincent Jackson
8.Randall Cobb
9.Roddie White 
10.Dez Bryant
11.Eric Decker
12.Julio Jones
13.Victor Cruz
14.Jordy Nelson
15.Brandon Marshall
16.Marques Colston
17.Denarius Moore
18.Miles Austin
19.Danny Amendola
20.Steve Johnson
21.Larry Fitzgerald
22.Hakeem Nicks
23.Torrey Smith
24.Steve Smith
25.Denario Alexander
26.Michael Crabtree
27.Brian Hartline
28.Mike Wallace
29.Dwayne Bowe
30.Lance Moore
31.Brandon Lloyd
32.Mike Williams
33.James Jones
34.Sidney Rice
35.Cecil Shorts
36.T.Y. Hilton
37.DeShaun Jackson
38.Darius Heyward-Bey
39.Golden Tate 
40.Jeremy Maclin
41.Brandon LaFell
42.Malcom Floyd

I put Megatron back at the top spot last week, and although he finished #7, that was ahead of the other usual suspects.  I was all-in on the Raiders in Week 11, and (aside from Marcel Reece) they made me look silly.  I mean, Denarius Moore nearly put up a goose egg!  I wasn't the only one who didn't see that coming, but still very disappointing nonetheless.  I had Jordy back in my top-10, but Randall Cobb continues to look more and more like the fantasy WR you want to have from the Packers.  I'm moving him into the top-10 and Jordy out this week.

I will say that I had Andre Johnson ranked higher than I'd had him all season, and WELL ahead of all of the experts.  I wasn't predicting 273 yards and a touchdown, but I still had him ahead of guys like Julio Jones, Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, etc.  I'll take that little victory this week.  Unfortunately, Andre3000 kept me from victory in my fantasy league, as I was playing against him.

I moved Brandon Marshall way down my list, and if it wasn't for that late (and meaningless) touchdown, he would've had just one or two points.  That TD redeemed his fantasy value for the week, but he still isn't going to be elite with Jason Campbell trying to get him the ball.  Don't listen to the experts who say not to worry about Marshall, even with Cutler out.  You should definitely worry.

I'm not ranking Percy Harvin this week, as I think he'll get another week off that injured ankle.  Cruz and Nicks are back on the list after their bye week, but I'm really struggling to put any Tennessee WR on the list (even though I do have Locker in my top 20 fantasy QBs).  For now, I'm just going to leave them off and rank Jared Cook relatively high on my tight end list.

I guess I missed ranking Denario Alexander last week, but I've got him on there this week (and fairly high).  Dez Bryant also gets a boost this week, as he makes my top-10.  Vincent Jackson also moves back into the top-10, as he has become one of the more consistent fantasy options at WR (which is a big change from past seasons).  It feels weird ranking guys like Mike Wallace and DeShaun Jackson so low, but with backup QBs, they're just risky plays at this point in my mind.

1.Jimmy Graham
2.Jason Witten
3.Tony Gonzalez 
4.Jermaine Gresham
5.Antonio Gates
6.Vernon Davis
7.Owen Daniels
8.Brandon Myers
9.Greg Olsen
10.Dustin Keller
11.Brent Celek
12.Jared Cook
13.Heath Miller
14.Brandon Pettigrew
15.Martellus Bennett
16.Jermichael Finley 
17.Scott Chandler 
18.Kyle Rudolph

New England took a big hit losing Gronk toward the end of their Week 11 game against Indy, and Hernandez continued to look on from the sideline.  They play Thursday night this week, so I'm going to keep him out of my tight end rankings once again.  If he plays, he's a top-5 tight end, but he hasn't played in a while so he remains on the sidelines of my list too.  I hung my hat on Greg Olsen at #7 last week, but he barely cracked the top-20 (not a great call).  He's staying in my top-10 this week though, but there are some new faces up there this week.  For instance, I like Jermaine Gresham as a top-5 play against Oakland.  He's been very consistent lately, and the Raiders have been giving up a ton of points in the passing game.  In that same game, I like Brandon Myers to continue to get a lot of balls thrown his way.  I think he's a top-10 tight end this week.  


Along with Green Bay, the Patriots were the top fantasy defense in Week 11.  I had New England on my bench, though it wouldn't have mattered much in my blowout loss.  I went with Cincy, who was a top-10 defense against the Chiefs (of course).  I liked the Ravens last week against the Leftwich-led Steelers, but with Ed Reed likely serving a suspension, I rank them a little lower at San Diego.  I'm going back and forth on my streaming defense this week, but I think I might go double or nothing with the Bengals instead of the Patriots.  Both have good matchups, but I like the home team (Cincy) and also the team who is allowing fewer points and getting after the QB better (also Cincy).  New England has more fantasy points as of late, but a lot of that is due to defensive TDs, and I don't like my odds at chasing those.  My #1 defense this week is Denver.  Who are they playing?  Yes, it's the Chiefs.  

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!