Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Week 9 Rankings

So now that my lengthy mid-year fantasy season review is complete, let's get to the rankings.  I was back in the loss column last week, so I'm sitting at 3-5.  Much like the Redskins, I'm starting to get into "must win" territory.  OK let's go!

1.Aaron Rodgers
3.Matt Ryan
4.Drew Brees
5.Michael Vick
6.Peyton Manning
7.Matthew Stafford
8.Andrew Luck
9.Cam Newton
10.Ben Roethlisberger
11.Josh Freeman
12.Matt Schaub
13.Eli Manning
14.Carson Palmer
15.Joe Flacco
16.Tony Romo
17.Philip Rivers
18.Jay Cutler
19.Andy Dalton
20.Russell Wilson
21.Ryan Fitzpatrick
22.Brandon Weeden
23.Christian Ponder
24.Matt Hasselbeck 

Rodgers and Brees were no where near the top spot last week, but you know who was?  Peyton Manning.  OK, so he wasn't the #1 QB in Week 8, but he was #3.  Stafford had a big game, and so did Brady, but Manning was right behind them.  I also said that Cam Newton would have under 300 total yards and 1.5 total TDs, and although he did have 351 total yards, the Bears kept him out of the endzone.  I wasn't 3 for 3 on my predictions because I mentioned how I didn't rank Alex Smith, but come on, who did?!?  This week I'm ranking Vick highly on Monday night against that horrible Saints defense.  It also sounds like he's playing for his job, so I think he'll show up in a big way.  I also have Josh Freeman near the top-10, which sucks because I'll be playing against him this week.  Not a bad bye week fill-in for the Tom Brady-less Fightin Zovkos!  I think he'll easily break the 20 fantasy point mark against that Raider D.

1.Arian Foster
2.Ray Rice
3.LeSean McCoy
4.Matt Forte
5.Ryan Mathews
6.Alfred Morris
7.Marshawn Lynch
8.Trent Richardson
9.Willis McGahee
10.Adrian Peterson
11.Doug Martin
12.Jamaal Charles
13.Reggie Bush
14.Ahmad Bradshaw
15.Chris Johnson
16.Darren McFadden
17.CJ Spiller
18.Michael Turner
19.Darren Sproles
20.Rashad Jennings
21.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
22.Mikel LeShoure
23.Fred Jackson
24.Jonathan Stewart
25.Jonathan Dwyer
26.Alex Green
27.Felix Jones
28.LaRod Stephens-Howling
29.Michael Bush
30.Vick Ballard
31.Pierre Thomas
32.Daniel Thomas
33.Andre Brown
34.Donald Brown
35.LaGarrette Blount
36.Joique Bell
37.Jacquizz Rodgers
38.Philip Tanner
39.Ronnie Brown
40.Peyton Hillis

So I said I would keep Jamaal Charles at the top spot against any defense he goes up against, but I'm backing off that a little bit after Week 8.  I had AP a lot lower than most of the experts last week and said he wouldn't be a top-5 RB.  Well I was right, but he finished 6th, and well ahead of some of the other top ranked RBs.  So let's just call that a wash.  Chris Johnson continued his recent hot play, but he should cool off a little this week against the Bears.  If he get 100 yards and a TD against that defense, I'll be shocked.  I'll also give him mad respect from here on out.  It's no surprise that Foster and Rice are back at the top spots after their bye weeks, and I have my guys Forte and Mathews right behind them.  I'm hoping for a big game out of Mathews against KC, and I have him ranked much higher than the experts this week.

1.Calvin Johnson
2.Brandon Marshall
3.AJ Green
4.Percy Harvin
5.Victor Cruz
6.Demaryius Thomas
7.Reggie Wayne
8.Vincent Jackson
9.Julio Jones
10.Jordy Nelson
11.Andre Johnson
12.Roddie White
13.Mike Wallace
14.Marques Colston
15.Denarius Moore 
16.Steve Smith
17.Miles Austin
18.Jeremy Maclin
19.Eric Decker
20.Dez Bryant
21.Antonio Brown
22.Larry Fitzgerald
23.Torrey Smith 
24.Dwayne Bowe
25.Mike Williams
26.Steve Johnson
27.Hakeem Nicks
28.Randall Cobb
29.DeShaun Jackson
30.Josh Gordon
31.Lance Moore
32.Malcom Floyd
33.James Jones
34.Titus Young
35.Andre Roberts
36.Anquan Boldin
37.Sidney Rice
38.Brian Hartline
39.Donnie Avery
40.Kenny Britt
41.Cecil Shorts
42.Darius Heyward-Bey

I'm dropping Dwayne Bowe even further in my rankings this week, but Cassell is back and San Diego has a tough rush defense.  That makes me think they'll air it out a bit, so I'm actually expecting something from Bowe this week.  I just like a lot of other WRs more than him right now.  The experts jumped off the Megatron bandwagon pretty quickly, but I'm ranking him #1 this week.  That's right.  I'm going out on a limb and ranking Calvin Johnson as the #1 fantasy wide receiver for Week 9.  Please try to contain your disbelief.  Vincent Jackson is a top-10 WR for me this week, and I'm keeping Jordy up there because I think the hamstring is fine.  I have no basis for that right now, but I'm thinking he would have played last week if it was the playoffs.  He'll be OK.

1.Jimmy Graham
2.Jason Witten
3.Heath Miller
4.Tony Gonzalez
5.Owen Daniels
6.Brent Celek
7.Antonio Gates
8.Martellus Bennett
9.Greg Olsen
10.Brandon Pettigrew
11.Kyle Rudolph
12.Scott Chandler
13.Jermaine Gresham
14.Jared Cook
15.Dennis Pitta
16.Brandon Myers
17.Jermichael Finley
18.Jacob Tamme

Gates was back to his mediocre self in Week 8, Aaron Hernandez didn't make the trip to London due to his wife having a baby (but I still think he’s instantly a top-5 fantasy tight end when he comes back in Week 10), and Dustin Keller had another solid week (as predicted).  This week, I'm being pretty boring with the tight end rankings.  Nothing exciting really.  I still have Gates ranked in the top-10, but at this point, who knows?


The Bears didn't claim the top spot last week, but they still had a good week.  The Packers and Niners were in the top-5 in Week 8, and those defenses will probably both be near the top moving forward.  I did say I liked both the Lions and Seahawks in the same way I liked both the Rams and Dolphins in Week 6, but I was wrong there (although neither team got -2 like the Vikings did for my fantasy team).  I also suggested that if you needed a bye week fill-in on defense, the Raiders were a good option against KC.  Well that advice could have won me a game in Week 8, but who knew the Vikings would get torched by the Bucs like they did on Thursday night?  (Note: I sure didn't.)  This week I'm taking San Diego's defense at home against those same Chiefs.  I hope my advice can just work well for me a week later.


My Fantasy Mid-Year Review

Most fantasy seasons don't play into the last real week of the football regular season (Week 17), so that means we're at the halfway point in the 2012 fantasy season.  Some teams have had their bye weeks and others have not, which means that some players have 7 games under their belt and others have 8 (while still others have less due to injury).  Whatever the case, I thought I'd take this time to reflect on some of my preseason predictions and see how they're holding up at this point.  This is going to be a long one, so bear with me (or stop reading now, whatever you want to do).  I'm going to start with my "Guys I'll Let Someone Else Draft", then I'll talk about the "Guys I Might Reach For a Round Early", and I'll wrap it up with my "2012 Fantasy Redeem Team".

Guys I'll Let Someone Else Draft

Running Backs:  Grade B+
Marshawn Lynch: Lynch still has his bye week to sit out, so he does have an extra game of stats, but for now he's in the top 10 fantasy running backs (well ahead of guys like Forte and McFadden, which I thought was a little crazy to take him ahead of those guys in drafts).  Lynch is still dealing with lingering back issues, so I'm not convinced he'll be injury-free for the rest of the season, but he's looking pretty beast mode for now.

Fred Jackson: I said in the preseason that if I was going to take an older guy, I’d much rather have someone like Gore or Turner.  Those two are doing their thing, but Fred is looking his age.  I also suggested that CJ Spiller a few rounds later was much more interesting to me than Jackson, and this year will be closer to a 50/50 split with these two, with Spiller even getting the majority of the touches by the end of the year.  I gotta say that's looking pretty spot-on right about now.

Roy Helu (or any other Redskins RB): No one drafted Alfred Morris in my league, and that's probably the case in most fantasy leagues.  Morris is having a great first half, but if you drafted Helu or Royster based on preseason rankings, you were surely disappointed.

Any Carolina Panthers RB: DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert have a combined total of fantasy points equal to someone like Chris Johnson or Michael Turner. None of them as individuals have more points than guys like Danny Woodhead and Kendall Hunter.  So yeah, I think I was right to stay away from Carolina's backfield altogether. 

Pierre Thomas: Speaking of guys who have more fantasy points than DeAngelo, Stewart, or Tolbert.  Pierre is having a solid season based on where he was drafted, so I'd have to say I was wrong about him for now.  I still think there's a chance Mark Ingram starts seeing more touches, but it's not looking that way right now in the Saints' backfield.

A few others who I said I'd let someone else take in the later rounds…
Joseph Addai: I said "I’m probably not drafting any Patriot RB, but if I do I’ll take one of the youngins."  As it happened, Addai got cut before the season even started, and he has yet to be signed by another team.
Bernard Scott: It looks like I was right that The Law Firm would get the same kind of workload they gave to Cedric Benson in Cincy.  Scott got work in two games this season, had 8 carries for 35 yards, and has now been placed on the IR.
Kevin Smith: Very early in the preseason, I was claiming that Jahvid Best would have a big year, and the only burn Kevin Smith should get would be a handful of touches in the first two weeks when Leshoure was serving a suspension.  It looks like I was half right with this one, but I still wasn't touching Kevin Smith in my draft.
Joe McKnight: I only really put McKnight here because he was being drafted, and I thought that alone was crazy.  He's now the third string RB for the Jets, and he'll be completely insignificant if it becomes Tebow Time soon.

Wide Receivers:  Grade B-
Jordy Nelson: I had Jordy here because there was no way I was chasing those 15 TDs from last year (I was thinking about 800 yards and 7 TDs for him on the season).  Greg Jennings has missed about 2/3 of the games thusfar in the season, and now it looks like he'll be having groin surgery.  That being said, I was flat out wrong with this one, and Jordy is on pace for another stellar season.

Denarius Moore: I was big on Darrius Heyward-Bey in the preseason, but it's Moore who has looked better thusfar.  I also said I probably wouldn’t take any Oakland WR, but in hindsight, Moore would have been a solid late-round pick.

Randy Moss: This guy had 4 receptions and a touchdown in Week 1, and I was just thinking "really?!?".  But he has done just about nothing since then, and he hasn't had 4 receptions since Week 1.  He hadn't had a touchdown until the one he had last night (on his only reception of the game).  Good luck chasing those random stats.  He was drafted way too high in our league, and in my opinion being drafted at all would have been way too high.

A few more quick ones…
Laurent Robinson: He's on pace to have about 300 yards and no touchdowns.  Bust.
Plaxico Burress: I couldn't believe people were ranking him and drafting him in leagues.  Come on, MAN!
Steve Breaston: So far, he has 44 yards to his name, and no matter who the QB is in Kansas City, they're not throwing it to Breaston.
James Jones: OK, so I was pretty wrong about this one, but this is due to the injury to Jennings more than anything.  Jones has made most of the opportunity though, and I'm definitely surprised.  I said that Randall Cobb would finish with more fantasy points than Jones (easily), and I'm going to stick with that.  Right now they are pretty neck-and-neck, but I think Cobb will still come out on top.
Vincent Brown: This was another one that was made for me based on injury.  Brown broke his ankle in the preseason, but he's slated to return any week now.  If he does come back, we'll see what he can do.

Quarterbacks:  Grade A-
Alex Smith and Joe Flacco:  I suggested taking a chance on someone like Andrew Luck or Matt Flynn over average QBs like these two (obviously I wouldn't have taken Flynn once Wilson was named the starter, but this blog was written pretty early).  I also suggested maybe taking an even riskier chance on a guy like RGIII a couple rounds earlier (damn I wish I'd done that myself!!!).   The point was that you could take a chance one one of these guys and you can always find a mediocre QB on the waiver wire to fill in (Alex Smith is currently on the waiver wire in my league).

Tight Ends:  Grade D
Tony Gonzalez: I was hating on the old man in the preseason, but he's definitely proving me wrong (I'm sure he cares about me and my blog).  I was just flat out wrong on this one.

Owen Daniels: This guy is a top 5 tight end right now.  So is Heath Miller!  I don't know what got into these guys this year, but they're ballin.  Wrong here too.  I wish Gates would get into the old guy tight end rejuvenation business this season!

Kellen Winslow: I suggested that neither he nor Zach Miller would have value because both would have very average numbers fighting for targets in Seattle.  Well that didn't happen because Winslow was gone, got picked up by New England, played one game with them, and now has no team.  At least I was right about Winslow.  Tight ends were a tough group for me in this article.

Defenses:  Grade C-
49ers: I had the Bears defense as my number one in preseason rankings, and I wasn't about to reach for the 49ers, who were pretty much everyone else's consensus top pick.  This was more of saying that I wouldn't reach too highly for any defense, but once the Niners went in my league, I was ready to jump on the Bears.  I think it was either just too early for me or someone else might have beaten me to the punch.  San Fran is currently the #2 ranked defense in our league, but they're going on their bye this week and still have games at New Orleans and New England.  I think they'll finish around 5th when it's all said and done.  To be continued...

NYG: Currently a top 5 defense, I might end up being wrong about the G-Men..

Oh, and I gave you a kicker:  Grade: A+
Garrett Hartley: I was going to wait until the last round to take a kicker anyway, but I wasn't about to take this guy.  He was fighting for his job during the preseason, and he's had issues in the past, so I didn't have him in my top-12 kickers.  Currently he's nowhere near the top of the ranks for fantasy kickers.  In fact, there are at least 12 kickers on the waiver wire in my league who have more points than Hartley.  Take that!

Guys I Might Reach For a Round Early

Wide Receivers:  Grade B+
Brandon Marshall:  I was drinking the Cutler to Marshall Kool Aid in the preseason, and I was ready to take Marshall super early in my draft.  However, I didn't have that chance (unless I wanted to reach for him in the first round, which I wasn't trying to do).  I wanted to get him in the 2nd, but he was gone.  I guess others were drinking that Kool Aid too.  It's looking like it's going to work out, as Marshall is a top 5 fantasy WR, and I think he'll end the season either #1 or #2.

Demaryius Thomas: Right now he's a top 10 fantasy WR, but I think he'll finish in the top 5.  He's big time playmaker, Peyton has been looking his way a ton, and the remaining schedule isn't exactly loading with tough pass defenses.

Brandon Lloyd: I don't know what's going on with the Brady to Lloyd thing, but it's just not happening.  Maybe things will click in the second half, but right now this prediction isn't looking good.  He did have a pair of TDs in Week 8, but those were his only receptions.  Those two will need to hook up a little more than that if this prediction is to pan out.

Lance Moore: I wrote in the preseason that I’ve always liked watching this guy play, but I don’t think I’ve ever had him on a fantasy team.  Well now I do.  With Robert Meachem out of the picture, Moore is now the clear #2 wideout on the depth chart.  I predicted a season for Lance Moore that would be close to 1000 yards and 10 TDs.  Maybe that was a bit of a bold prediction, but the 1000 yards is within reach, and you never know when those TDs might come.  I doubt he'll get to 10 TDs, but I still like where I was able to get him in my draft, after guys had already drafted the likes of Santonio Holmes, Sidney Rice, and yes, Robert Meachem.

Greg Little: This was a bit of a shot in the dark, but I was suggesting Little as a late round flier.  Someone reached way earlier than that in our draft (maybe they were reading my blog).  Greg Little has crazy athleticism, but he drops way too many passes.  Brandon Weeden has looked pretty good so far too, which makes it even harder to swallow that Little hasn't done much with the opportunity.  To make matters EVEN worse, Little was on the waiver wire and I needed a bye week fill-in for week 5.  I played him and he got me a big fat goose egg.  I'm not bitter though.  I mean, I did lose by 2 points, but whatever.  DAMMIT!!!

Running Backs:  Grade C
James Starks:  I'd like to not count this one, but I will.  The Packers signed Cedric Benson well after I wrote about Starks, but whatever.  I was thinking this would be the year that he could take the reins, but it was not.  Luckily I picked up Alex Green off the waiver wire once Benson inevitably got hurt.  Green is looking like the RB to own for Green Bay.

CJ Spiller: I was hating on Fred Jackson in the preseason, and I wanted Spiller.  But you can't draft them all, and I didn't land him.  In a keeper league, there is an increased value placed on Spiller, and he's looking like he might now be the main man for the Bills in the years to come.

Mark Ingram:  I said to call this one a hunch (because that’s what it was), but I thought this was the year to grab Ingram and stash him away for a couple more in a keeper league like ours.  I was hoping that I'd get either Spiller or Ingram in my draft, and I ended up with Ingram.  If you look at my rankings, you know that I've since waived him, and I have no intention of picking him back up anytime soon.  My hunch was wrong.

Future Detroit RB Cedric Benson or Ryant Grant:  Hey I was close.  Cedric Benson ended up with the Packers, but the Lions never did make a move for a veteran.  By the time I wrote this, I was off the Jahvid Best train because he still wasn’t cleared to participate in training camp due to his concussion symptoms, and there was a lot of worry in Motown about when or if he’d return.  Mikel Leshoure looks like the back to own right now for Detroit, but who knows?...maybe the Lions will sign Ryan Grant at some point in the second half!

Tight Ends:  Grade B-
Antonio Gates:  With Gronk and Graham being keepers in my league, Gates was one of the best options available at the position.  Right now it's looking like I should've waited and just picked up a tight end in the later rounds (like Cook).  Gates looked better before the bye, but then he came back to earth in Week 8.  I'm going to just call this one a bust right now.

Jason Witten:  I'm not going to count this one because I clearly was way down on Witten in my later preseason ranks due to the spleen injury.  So just disregard this one.

Jared Cook:  So if my plan were to fail and I didn't get Gates, Cook was to be my guy.  It's not like Cook is lighting up the scoreboard, but part of my thinking was that Locker would be his QB, and he's been hurt.  Still, Cook has more fantasy points than Gates, though his numbers are very mediocre.  I said that Cook had the best chance to round out the top 5 fantasy TEs when it’s all said and done this year.  He's currently in the top-10, and a good second half could get him there.

2012 Fantasy Redeem Team

Below you'll find each player's 2011 stats, my bold projected 2012 stats for them, 2011 ADP vs. 2012 ADP (roughly, based on yahoo and espn combined), and where I had each ranked in my personal rankings (as of 08/22/12).

I've also now added their 2012 stats to-date.....

QB: Josh Freeman
2011 Stats: 15 GP, 3592 Pass Yds, 16 Pass TDs, 22 INTs; 238 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 3800 Pass Yds, 27 Pass TDs, 15 INTs; 300 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 7 GP, 1800 Pass Yds, 14 Pass TDs, 5 INTs; 39 Rush Yds, 0 Rush TDs
2011 ADP: 75; 2012 ADP: 125; My rank: 117

My reasoning behind having Freeman headline this list was the fact that in 2011 he didn't have all the weapons in the receiving corps that he now has, not to mention a guy like Doug Martin who could take some pressure off with the running game.  I missed out on a QB in the first couple rounds of my draft, and in hindsight I should have taken my own advice: wait on a guy like Freeman (rather than draft Philip Rivers much higher like I did).  Josh is on pace for about what I predicted, and although the rushing yards and TDs don't appear to be there anymore, he almost has as many passing TDs now as he had all of last year.  He also is currently a top-10 fantasy quarterback.

RB: Chris Johnson
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 1047 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TDs; 418 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1500 Rush Yds, 10 Rush TDs; 450 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 8 GP, 595 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TDs, 128 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 8; 2012 ADP: 9; My rank: 8

So far, Chris Johnson has been about as disappointing as last season, and very inconsistent.  However, in his last three games he has 385 yards and those 2 TDs, so we'll see if he continues that trend or goes back to being up and down.  At this point, it's pretty unlikely he'll get 12 total TDs, but the yardage could be accurate if he continues to play like he has recently.

RB: Peyton Hillis
2011 Stats: 10 GP, 587 Rush Yds, 3 TDs; 130 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 900 Rush Yds, 11 Rush TDs; 250 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD
Current 2012 Stats: 4 GP, 116 Rush Yds, 0 Rush TDs, 38 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 25; 2012 ADP: 90; My rank: 71

Jamaal Charles has looked good this season following last year when he tore his ACL early on.  Hillis, on the other hand, suffered a high ankle sprain and has missed half of the games thusfar this season.  He has yet to reach the end zone this year, and I'm afraid that my projections for Hillis are not going to come to fruition.  He's one of a couple guys who just don't belong on the Redeem Team...

WR: Reggie Wayne
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 960 Rec Yds, 4 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1050 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 7 GP, 757 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 30; 2012 ADP: 107; My rank: 79

I noted back in late August that Reggie would turn 34 this November, but we've seen solid productivity from receivers in their mid-30s before.  "Guys like Jimmy Smith and Terrell Owens have produced 1000YD/10TD seasons at this age, and I don't see why Wayne can't do it too."  I also noted that although "I don't know if he'll haul in 10 TDs with the rookie quarterback, I think the yards will be there."  I'm just going to take a moment to enjoy this one.


OK, let's continue.

WR: Brandon Lloyd
2011 Stats: 15 GP (4 in Denver and 11 in STL), 966 Rec Yds, 5 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1250 Rec Yds, 10 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 8 GP, 435 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 45; 2012 ADP: 50; My rank: 32

I knew that Tom Brady would spread it around to all of those weapons he has, but I really thought Lloyd would get his.  So far, he's not getting much, and he's looking more like 2011 Brandon Lloyd than the 2010 version.  He did get a pair of TDs in the London game, but he only has 3 receptions in his last two games.  Maybe the bye week will do his knee some good.  You never know how much injuries are bothering guys in New England because I feel like everyone on the team is always "Questionable" but no one ever misses a game!  I'm looking for a solid second half for Brandon to show that he belongs on this squad.

TE: Antonio Gates
2011 Stats: 13 GP, 778 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 900 Rec Yds, 11 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 6 GP, 238 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 35; 2012 ADP: 46; My rank: 41

I don't really want to get more into Gates, as it pains me since I drafted him so highly.  Basically, he's the tight end version of Brandon Lloyd right now on this Redeem Team.  We'll see what the second half of the season holds for him.

FLEX: Mike Williams
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 771 Rec Yds, 3 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1025 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 7 GP, 436 Rec Yds, 4 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 40; 2012 ADP: 150; My rank: 95

From what I wrote in August:
"Here's a guy who was getting drafted way too high in 2011, but now he is falling way too low in 2012 drafts.  I can't see how he is outside of the top 100.  Which WRs are getting picked ahead of him?  Michael Crabtree?  Laurent Robinson?  I'm sorry, but that's just crazy to me.  If you draft a defense before a guy like Mike Williams, you're making a huge mistake."
To me, this was either going to work as a 2-for-1, or it wasn't going to work out at all.  I picked Josh Freeman to have a bounce-back year, so I did the same for Mike Williams.  Williams isn't getting a ton of targets this season, but he's making the most of the looks he's getting.  He already has more TDs than he had in all of last year, and he's about on pace for a 1000-yard season.

There's still a lot of football to be played, but this Fantasy Redeem Team just mind round out nicely by the end of the season.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.  For now I'll just give them a grade of "Incomplete".  Feel free to use the comments section to give me a different grade or to just rant about whatever you'd like.  Week 9 Rankings should be up tomorrow.


Thursday, October 25, 2012

Week 8 Rankings

I feel like it has been waaaay too long, and I’m a changed man in more ways than one.  Most noteably I guess would be the fact that I now have a ring on my left hand.  But second to that has to be my fantasy team going from 1-4 to 3-4!  I said during my Week 6 Rankings that I just needed a couple of wins and I'm right back in this thing.  Although I didn’t move after week 6, I jumped from 12th to 10th place after last week, and I’m now a win away from jumping a couple more spots.  So yeah, I’m back in it.  A lot of names have changed on these lists with injuries and bye weeks, but let’s get right to it.

1.Peyton Manning
2.Aaron Rodgers
3.Drew Brees
5.Ben Roethlisberger
6.Tom Brady
7.Matt Ryan
8.Andrew Luck
9.Michael Vick
10.Philip Rivers
11.Tony Romo
12.Eli Manning
13.Matthew Stafford
14.Carson Palmer
15.Christian Ponder
16.Jay Cutler
17.Cam Newton
18.Sam Bradford
19.Brandon Weeden
20.Mark Sanchez
21.Russell Wilson
22.Ryan Tannehill
23.Josh Freeman
24.Matt Hasselbeck

Peyton Manning is coming off a bye week and gets the Saints secondary…at HOME?…in PRIME TIME?!?  Everyone else can go ahead and play it safe with Rodgers or Brees, but I think Peyton will go off on Sunday night.  I’ll take him at the top spot, thank you very much.  Another QB of note this week is Cam Newton, but for the opposite reason.  The Bears D doesn’t give up many fantasy points to anyone, much less to quarterbacks.  I’d sit him if I had a better option this week.  I’m taking the under on 300 total yards and 1.5 total TDs this week for Cam.  Also, Alex Smith didn't make the cut this week.  Oh well.

1.Jamaal Charles
2.LeSean McCoy
3.Matt Forte
4.Chris Johnson
5.Ryan Mathews
6.Darren McFadden
7.Adrian Peterson
8.Marshawn Lynch
9.Frank Gore
10.Reggie Bush
11.Willis McGahee
12.Alfred Morris
13.Ahmad Bradshaw
14.Trent Richardson
15.Darren Sproles
16.Rashad Jennings
17.Michael Turner
18.Doug Martin
19.Stevan Ridley
20.Steven Jackson
21.Alex Green
22.Vick Ballard
23.Mikel LeShoure
24.Shonn Greene
25.Michael Bush
26.Felix Jones
27.Jonathan Dwyer
28.LaRod Stephens-Howling
29.Kendall Hunter
30.Daryl Richardson
31.Pierre Thomas
32.Philip Tanner
33.Jonathan Stewart
34.Daniel Thomas
35.LaGarrette Blount
36.Andre Brown
37.Jacquizz Rodgers
38.Danny Woodhead
39.Montario Hardesty
40.Jamie Harper

Jamaal Charles is going to stay at the top spot for me, at least until it looks like Peyton Hillis is healthy and vulturing some TDs from him.  Until then, I’m keeping him at the top against any defense he goes up against.  Once again, I have the 3 RBs on my team ranked in my top 10 overall RBs for the week (AP, Mathews, Forte).  If that’s right, I shouldn’t have a problem winning for a third straight week.  Then again, anything can happen.  I do have AP a lot lower than most of the experts.  Tampa Bay has a solid run defense, and even though it is Peterson, I have a feeling that with the shortened week against a tough D, he's not going to be a top-5 RB this week.  Rashad Jennings jumps from obscurity into the #16 spot, and Chris Johnson bounces way back up after an amazing performance in Week 7.  Speaking of amazing, I can't believe just how much I had to edit this list from Week 6 toWeek 8.  It just goes to show you how much volatility there is at this position, even in a small amount of time.

1.Percy Harvin
2.Demaryius Thomas
3.Victor Cruz
4.Brandon Marshall
5.Calvin Johnson
6.Jordy Nelson
7.Reggie Wayne
8.Roddie White
9.Marques Colston
10.Mike Wallace
11.Wes Welker
12.Julio Jones
13.Eric Decker
14.Vincent Jackson
15.Larry Fitzgerald
16.Antonio Brown
17.Miles Austin
18.Hakeem Nicks
19.Randall Cobb
20.Dez Bryant
21.DeShaun Jackson
22.Dwayne Bowe
23.Lance Moore
24.Jeremy Maclin
25.Denarius Moore
26.Brandon Lloyd
27.Malcom Floyd
28.Steve Smith
29.James Jones
30.Josh Gordon
31.Kenny Britt
32.Jeremy Kerley
33.Brian Hartline
34.Mike Williams
35.Titus Young
36.Michael Crabtree
37.Sidney Rice
38.Brandon Gibson
39.Donnie Avery
40.Andre Roberts
41.Nate Washington
42.Darius Heyward-Bey

Dwayne Bowe continues to drop because, again, he has Brady Quinn throwing him the ball now (*double sigh*).  I’ll give him another week to see if those two can connect a little more frequently, but he might be on the trading block for me in the near future.  Right behind him I have ranked Lance Moore (also on my squad), and that's going to be a tough start/sit call for me come Sunday.  I have Peyton and Big Ben high on my QB rankings, so I have Thomas/Decker and Wallace/Brown very high as well.  It’s weird seeing Calvin Johnson in the middle of the top-10, but that’s about where he belongs right now (especially going up against a tough Seattle defense).  I think he’ll probably pull in about 80 yards and  TD, but I don’t expect much more than that from him this week.

1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Jimmy Graham
3.Tony Gonzalez
4.Antonio Gates
5.Aaron Hernandez
6.Jason Witten
7.Vernon Davis
8.Heath Miller
9.Dustin Keller
10.Brent Celek
11.Kyle Rudolph
12.Greg Olsen
13.Brandon Pettigrew
14.Martellus Bennett
15.Jared Cook
16.Brandon Myers
17.Jermichael Finley
18.Jacob Tamme

Gates finally had a good week, and right before the bye.  Hopefully he and Rivers worked more on those TDs over the break, because I need that connection to continue through the second half of my fantasy season.  Aaron Hernandez is back and once again a big part of the Patriot offense.  He’s instantly a top-5 fantasy tight end.  Dustin Keller is also back from injury, and with the Jets struggling to find some consistancy at wide receiver, I look for Sanchez to keep throwing to his althetic tight end.


The Bears continue to dominate on defense, and I think that will happen again at home against the Panthers.  The Niners should also put up some good fantasy points on D, no matter who the QB in Arizona will be.  I like the Packers a lot against a banged up Jags team, and I like both the Lions and Seahawks in the same way I liked both the Rams and Dolphins in Week 6 (side note: I predicted a 13-10 score in that game, but it ended up 17-14…pretty close).  I think the Detroit/Seattle game will also go under whatever Vegas says the total points will be for that game, and both defenses will get some points.  Speaking of not a lot of points, did I mention Brady Quinn was the QB for the Chiefs now?  If you need a bye week fill-in on defense, I suggest the Raiders.  I know Arrowhead can be a tough place to play, but I still think Quinn will have at least three turnovers (one of which will go to the house).

The honeymoon may be over, but the vacation never ends…