Most fantasy seasons don't play into the last real week of the football regular season (Week 17), so that means we're at the halfway point in the 2012 fantasy season. Some teams have had their bye weeks and others have not, which means that some players have 7 games under their belt and others have 8 (while still others have less due to injury). Whatever the case, I thought I'd take this time to reflect on some of my preseason predictions and see how they're holding up at this point. This is going to be a long one, so bear with me (or stop reading now, whatever you want to do). I'm going to start with my "Guys I'll Let Someone Else Draft", then I'll talk about the "Guys I Might Reach For a Round Early", and I'll wrap it up with my "2012 Fantasy Redeem Team".
Guys I'll Let Someone Else Draft
Running Backs: Grade B+
Marshawn Lynch: Lynch still has his bye week to sit out, so he does have an extra game of stats, but for now he's in the top 10 fantasy running backs (well ahead of guys like Forte and McFadden, which I thought was a little crazy to take him ahead of those guys in drafts). Lynch is still dealing with lingering back issues, so I'm not convinced he'll be injury-free for the rest of the season, but he's looking pretty beast mode for now.
Fred Jackson: I said in the preseason that if I was going to take an older guy, I’d much rather have someone like Gore or Turner. Those two are doing their thing, but Fred is looking his age. I also suggested that CJ Spiller a few rounds later was much more interesting to me than Jackson, and this year will be closer to a 50/50 split with these two, with Spiller even getting the majority of the touches by the end of the year. I gotta say that's looking pretty spot-on right about now.
Roy Helu (or any other Redskins RB): No one drafted Alfred Morris in my league, and that's probably the case in most fantasy leagues. Morris is having a great first half, but if you drafted Helu or Royster based on preseason rankings, you were surely disappointed.
Any Carolina Panthers RB: DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert have a combined total of fantasy points equal to someone like Chris Johnson or Michael Turner. None of them as individuals have more points than guys like Danny Woodhead and Kendall Hunter. So yeah, I think I was right to stay away from Carolina's backfield altogether.
Pierre Thomas: Speaking of guys who have more fantasy points than DeAngelo, Stewart, or Tolbert. Pierre is having a solid season based on where he was drafted, so I'd have to say I was wrong about him for now. I still think there's a chance Mark Ingram starts seeing more touches, but it's not looking that way right now in the Saints' backfield.
A few others who I said I'd let someone else take in the later rounds…
Joseph Addai: I said "I’m probably not drafting any Patriot RB, but if I do I’ll take one of the youngins." As it happened, Addai got cut before the season even started, and he has yet to be signed by another team.
Bernard Scott: It looks like I was right that The Law Firm would get the same kind of workload they gave to Cedric Benson in Cincy. Scott got work in two games this season, had 8 carries for 35 yards, and has now been placed on the IR.
Kevin Smith: Very early in the preseason, I was claiming that Jahvid Best would have a big year, and the only burn Kevin Smith should get would be a handful of touches in the first two weeks when Leshoure was serving a suspension. It looks like I was half right with this one, but I still wasn't touching Kevin Smith in my draft.
Joe McKnight: I only really put McKnight here because he was being drafted, and I thought that alone was crazy. He's now the third string RB for the Jets, and he'll be completely insignificant if it becomes Tebow Time soon.
Wide Receivers: Grade B-
Jordy Nelson: I had Jordy here because there was no way I was chasing those 15 TDs from last year (I was thinking about 800 yards and 7 TDs for him on the season). Greg Jennings has missed about 2/3 of the games thusfar in the season, and now it looks like he'll be having groin surgery. That being said, I was flat out wrong with this one, and Jordy is on pace for another stellar season.
Denarius Moore: I was big on Darrius Heyward-Bey in the preseason, but it's Moore who has looked better thusfar. I also said I probably wouldn’t take any Oakland WR, but in hindsight, Moore would have been a solid late-round pick.
Randy Moss: This guy had 4 receptions and a touchdown in Week 1, and I was just thinking "really?!?". But he has done just about nothing since then, and he hasn't had 4 receptions since Week 1. He hadn't had a touchdown until the one he had last night (on his only reception of the game). Good luck chasing those random stats. He was drafted way too high in our league, and in my opinion being drafted at all would have been way too high.
A few more quick ones…
Laurent Robinson: He's on pace to have about 300 yards and no touchdowns. Bust.
Plaxico Burress: I couldn't believe people were ranking him and drafting him in leagues. Come on, MAN!
Steve Breaston: So far, he has 44 yards to his name, and no matter who the QB is in Kansas City, they're not throwing it to Breaston.
James Jones: OK, so I was pretty wrong about this one, but this is due to the injury to Jennings more than anything. Jones has made most of the opportunity though, and I'm definitely surprised. I said that Randall Cobb would finish with more fantasy points than Jones (easily), and I'm going to stick with that. Right now they are pretty neck-and-neck, but I think Cobb will still come out on top.
Vincent Brown: This was another one that was made for me based on injury. Brown broke his ankle in the preseason, but he's slated to return any week now. If he does come back, we'll see what he can do.
Quarterbacks: Grade A-
Alex Smith and Joe Flacco: I suggested taking a chance on someone like Andrew Luck or Matt Flynn over average QBs like these two (obviously I wouldn't have taken Flynn once Wilson was named the starter, but this blog was written pretty early). I also suggested maybe taking an even riskier chance on a guy like RGIII a couple rounds earlier (damn I wish I'd done that myself!!!). The point was that you could take a chance one one of these guys and you can always find a mediocre QB on the waiver wire to fill in (Alex Smith is currently on the waiver wire in my league).
Tight Ends: Grade D
Tony Gonzalez: I was hating on the old man in the preseason, but he's definitely proving me wrong (I'm sure he cares about me and my blog). I was just flat out wrong on this one.
Owen Daniels: This guy is a top 5 tight end right now. So is Heath Miller! I don't know what got into these guys this year, but they're ballin. Wrong here too. I wish Gates would get into the old guy tight end rejuvenation business this season!
Kellen Winslow: I suggested that neither he nor Zach Miller would have value because both would have very average numbers fighting for targets in Seattle. Well that didn't happen because Winslow was gone, got picked up by New England, played one game with them, and now has no team. At least I was right about Winslow. Tight ends were a tough group for me in this article.
Defenses: Grade C-
49ers: I had the Bears defense as my number one in preseason rankings, and I wasn't about to reach for the 49ers, who were pretty much everyone else's consensus top pick. This was more of saying that I wouldn't reach too highly for any defense, but once the Niners went in my league, I was ready to jump on the Bears. I think it was either just too early for me or someone else might have beaten me to the punch. San Fran is currently the #2 ranked defense in our league, but they're going on their bye this week and still have games at New Orleans and New England. I think they'll finish around 5th when it's all said and done. To be continued...
NYG: Currently a top 5 defense, I might end up being wrong about the G-Men..
Oh, and I gave you a kicker: Grade: A+
Garrett Hartley: I was going to wait until the last round to take a kicker anyway, but I wasn't about to take this guy. He was fighting for his job during the preseason, and he's had issues in the past, so I didn't have him in my top-12 kickers. Currently he's nowhere near the top of the ranks for fantasy kickers. In fact, there are at least 12 kickers on the waiver wire in my league who have more points than Hartley. Take that!
Guys I Might Reach For a Round Early
Wide Receivers: Grade B+
Brandon Marshall: I was drinking the Cutler to Marshall Kool Aid in the preseason, and I was ready to take Marshall super early in my draft. However, I didn't have that chance (unless I wanted to reach for him in the first round, which I wasn't trying to do). I wanted to get him in the 2nd, but he was gone. I guess others were drinking that Kool Aid too. It's looking like it's going to work out, as Marshall is a top 5 fantasy WR, and I think he'll end the season either #1 or #2.
Demaryius Thomas: Right now he's a top 10 fantasy WR, but I think he'll finish in the top 5. He's big time playmaker, Peyton has been looking his way a ton, and the remaining schedule isn't exactly loading with tough pass defenses.
Brandon Lloyd: I don't know what's going on with the Brady to Lloyd thing, but it's just not happening. Maybe things will click in the second half, but right now this prediction isn't looking good. He did have a pair of TDs in Week 8, but those were his only receptions. Those two will need to hook up a little more than that if this prediction is to pan out.
Lance Moore: I wrote in the preseason that I’ve always liked watching this guy play, but I don’t think I’ve ever had him on a fantasy team. Well now I do. With Robert Meachem out of the picture, Moore is now the clear #2 wideout on the depth chart. I predicted a season for Lance Moore that would be close to 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Maybe that was a bit of a bold prediction, but the 1000 yards is within reach, and you never know when those TDs might come. I doubt he'll get to 10 TDs, but I still like where I was able to get him in my draft, after guys had already drafted the likes of Santonio Holmes, Sidney Rice, and yes, Robert Meachem.
Greg Little: This was a bit of a shot in the dark, but I was suggesting Little as a late round flier. Someone reached way earlier than that in our draft (maybe they were reading my blog). Greg Little has crazy athleticism, but he drops way too many passes. Brandon Weeden has looked pretty good so far too, which makes it even harder to swallow that Little hasn't done much with the opportunity. To make matters EVEN worse, Little was on the waiver wire and I needed a bye week fill-in for week 5. I played him and he got me a big fat goose egg. I'm not bitter though. I mean, I did lose by 2 points, but whatever. DAMMIT!!!
Running Backs: Grade C
James Starks: I'd like to not count this one, but I will. The Packers signed Cedric Benson well after I wrote about Starks, but whatever. I was thinking this would be the year that he could take the reins, but it was not. Luckily I picked up Alex Green off the waiver wire once Benson inevitably got hurt. Green is looking like the RB to own for Green Bay.
CJ Spiller: I was hating on Fred Jackson in the preseason, and I wanted Spiller. But you can't draft them all, and I didn't land him. In a keeper league, there is an increased value placed on Spiller, and he's looking like he might now be the main man for the Bills in the years to come.
Mark Ingram: I said to call this one a hunch (because that’s what it was), but I thought this was the year to grab Ingram and stash him away for a couple more in a keeper league like ours. I was hoping that I'd get either Spiller or Ingram in my draft, and I ended up with Ingram. If you look at my rankings, you know that I've since waived him, and I have no intention of picking him back up anytime soon. My hunch was wrong.
Future Detroit RB Cedric Benson or Ryant Grant: Hey I was close. Cedric Benson ended up with the Packers, but the Lions never did make a move for a veteran. By the time I wrote this, I was off the Jahvid Best train because he still wasn’t cleared to participate in training camp due to his concussion symptoms, and there was a lot of worry in Motown about when or if he’d return. Mikel Leshoure looks like the back to own right now for Detroit, but who knows?...maybe the Lions will sign Ryan Grant at some point in the second half!
Tight Ends: Grade B-
Antonio Gates: With Gronk and Graham being keepers in my league, Gates was one of the best options available at the position. Right now it's looking like I should've waited and just picked up a tight end in the later rounds (like Cook). Gates looked better before the bye, but then he came back to earth in Week 8. I'm going to just call this one a bust right now.
Jason Witten: I'm not going to count this one because I clearly was way down on Witten in my later preseason ranks due to the spleen injury. So just disregard this one.
Jared Cook: So if my plan were to fail and I didn't get Gates, Cook was to be my guy. It's not like Cook is lighting up the scoreboard, but part of my thinking was that Locker would be his QB, and he's been hurt. Still, Cook has more fantasy points than Gates, though his numbers are very mediocre. I said that Cook had the best chance to round out the top 5 fantasy TEs when it’s all said and done this year. He's currently in the top-10, and a good second half could get him there.
2012 Fantasy Redeem Team
Below you'll find each player's 2011 stats, my bold projected 2012 stats for them, 2011 ADP vs. 2012 ADP (roughly, based on yahoo and espn combined), and where I had each ranked in my personal rankings (as of 08/22/12).
I've also now added their 2012 stats to-date.....
QB: Josh Freeman
2011 Stats: 15 GP, 3592 Pass Yds, 16 Pass TDs, 22 INTs; 238 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 3800 Pass Yds, 27 Pass TDs, 15 INTs; 300 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 7 GP, 1800 Pass Yds, 14 Pass TDs, 5 INTs; 39 Rush Yds, 0 Rush TDs
2011 ADP: 75; 2012 ADP: 125; My rank: 117
My reasoning behind having Freeman headline this list was the fact that in 2011 he didn't have all the weapons in the receiving corps that he now has, not to mention a guy like Doug Martin who could take some pressure off with the running game. I missed out on a QB in the first couple rounds of my draft, and in hindsight I should have taken my own advice: wait on a guy like Freeman (rather than draft Philip Rivers much higher like I did). Josh is on pace for about what I predicted, and although the rushing yards and TDs don't appear to be there anymore, he almost has as many passing TDs now as he had all of last year. He also is currently a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
RB: Chris Johnson
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 1047 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TDs; 418 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1500 Rush Yds, 10 Rush TDs; 450 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 8 GP, 595 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TDs, 128 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 8; 2012 ADP: 9; My rank: 8
So far, Chris Johnson has been about as disappointing as last season, and very inconsistent. However, in his last three games he has 385 yards and those 2 TDs, so we'll see if he continues that trend or goes back to being up and down. At this point, it's pretty unlikely he'll get 12 total TDs, but the yardage could be accurate if he continues to play like he has recently.
RB: Peyton Hillis
2011 Stats: 10 GP, 587 Rush Yds, 3 TDs; 130 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 900 Rush Yds, 11 Rush TDs; 250 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD
Current 2012 Stats: 4 GP, 116 Rush Yds, 0 Rush TDs, 38 Rec Yds, 0 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 25; 2012 ADP: 90; My rank: 71
Jamaal Charles has looked good this season following last year when he tore his ACL early on. Hillis, on the other hand, suffered a high ankle sprain and has missed half of the games thusfar this season. He has yet to reach the end zone this year, and I'm afraid that my projections for Hillis are not going to come to fruition. He's one of a couple guys who just don't belong on the Redeem Team...
WR: Reggie Wayne
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 960 Rec Yds, 4 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1050 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 7 GP, 757 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 30; 2012 ADP: 107; My rank: 79
I noted back in late August that Reggie would turn 34 this November, but we've seen solid productivity from receivers in their mid-30s before. "Guys like Jimmy Smith and Terrell Owens have produced 1000YD/10TD seasons at this age, and I don't see why Wayne can't do it too." I also noted that although "I don't know if he'll haul in 10 TDs with the rookie quarterback, I think the yards will be there." I'm just going to take a moment to enjoy this one.
...
OK, let's continue.
WR: Brandon Lloyd
2011 Stats: 15 GP (4 in Denver and 11 in STL), 966 Rec Yds, 5 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1250 Rec Yds, 10 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 8 GP, 435 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 45; 2012 ADP: 50; My rank: 32
I knew that Tom Brady would spread it around to all of those weapons he has, but I really thought Lloyd would get his. So far, he's not getting much, and he's looking more like 2011 Brandon Lloyd than the 2010 version. He did get a pair of TDs in the London game, but he only has 3 receptions in his last two games. Maybe the bye week will do his knee some good. You never know how much injuries are bothering guys in New England because I feel like everyone on the team is always "Questionable" but no one ever misses a game! I'm looking for a solid second half for Brandon to show that he belongs on this squad.
TE: Antonio Gates
2011 Stats: 13 GP, 778 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 900 Rec Yds, 11 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 6 GP, 238 Rec Yds, 2 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 35; 2012 ADP: 46; My rank: 41
I don't really want to get more into Gates, as it pains me since I drafted him so highly. Basically, he's the tight end version of Brandon Lloyd right now on this Redeem Team. We'll see what the second half of the season holds for him.
FLEX: Mike Williams
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 771 Rec Yds, 3 Rec TDs
My 2012 Projection: 16 GP, 1025 Rec Yds, 7 Rec TDs
Current 2012 Stats: 7 GP, 436 Rec Yds, 4 Rec TDs
2011 ADP: 40; 2012 ADP: 150; My rank: 95
From what I wrote in August:
"Here's a guy who was getting drafted way too high in 2011, but now he is falling way too low in 2012 drafts. I can't see how he is outside of the top 100. Which WRs are getting picked ahead of him? Michael Crabtree? Laurent Robinson? I'm sorry, but that's just crazy to me. If you draft a defense before a guy like Mike Williams, you're making a huge mistake."
To me, this was either going to work as a 2-for-1, or it wasn't going to work out at all. I picked Josh Freeman to have a bounce-back year, so I did the same for Mike Williams. Williams isn't getting a ton of targets this season, but he's making the most of the looks he's getting. He already has more TDs than he had in all of last year, and he's about on pace for a 1000-yard season.
There's still a lot of football to be played, but this Fantasy Redeem Team just mind round out nicely by the end of the season. I guess we'll have to wait and see. For now I'll just give them a grade of "Incomplete". Feel free to use the comments section to give me a different grade or to just rant about whatever you'd like. Week 9 Rankings should be up tomorrow.
Cheers,
Bart
