Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Week 5 Rankings

I need to have an intervention...with myself.  

We're now coming up on week 5 of the NFL season, and my fantasy team is 1-3.  It's time to forget about who I drafted and in what round I drafted them.  Ryan Mathews looks nothing like a great keeper right now, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is outplaying Philip Rivers.  I ranked Fitzpatrick three spots above Rivers in week 4, but did I play him?  Of course I didn't!  Granted, I still would have lost my matchup by a mile, but every point counts.  At 1-3, I could be looking at needing those extra points for a tiebreaker to get into the playoffs.  You never know.  And while this week I have Rivers ranked higher, I need to look at all of my matchups and make better decisions.  If Hakeem Nicks ever decides to come back but he's not at 100%, I might need to continue playing Lance Moore over him.  Hell, I might need to consider the waiver wire or try to make some trades here pretty soon.  Mark Ingram isn't doing much of anything, and it's about time to cut ties there.  If he turns out to be an amazing keeper for someone in 2013, so be it.  I'm trying to win it all this year, and I'm clearly feeling the pressure for some much needed Ws.

Most likely many of you can apply this same strategy to your teams.  I bet a lot of people sat Chris Johnson in week 4 (and rightfully so).  He finally decided to play a little bit, so that decision to put him back in got a little bit harder.  But the point is to not dwell on that 2nd round pick you made who is stinking up the joint.  If you need to put in Alfred Morris or Willis McGahee over Steven or Fred Jackson (no relation), then that's what you do.  Find yourself wanting to start Reggie Wayne over Jeremy Maclin?  You'd better!

...and I need to take my own advice.

We're now at just over a week til the big day for me, but the ranking must go on.  Even more bye weeks now, and I hope I can catch a break or two in the weeks to come instead of being the one dishing out the easy wins for other people.  Feel free to pick me apart in the comments.

QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.RGIII
3.Drew Brees
4.Matt Ryan
5.Tom Brady
6.Eli Manning
7.Andy Dalton
8.Peyton Manning
9.Joe Flacco
10.Cam Newton
11.Philip Rivers
12.Michael Vick
13.Andrew Luck
14.Ben Roethlisberger
15.Kevin Kolb
16.Ryan Fitzpatrick
17.Jay Cutler
18.Matt Schaub
19.Christian Ponder
20.Alex Smith

I didn't even adjust my top five this week.  No need.  These guys all had big week fours, and I think week five will be more of the same.  Call it lazy or whatever you want, but I'm letting it ride with those guys at the top.  I already mentioned the Fitzpatrick call, so I don't want to get into that again.  Big Ben and Andrew Luck are back in the mix this week, but I'm actually ranking Luck one spot higher.  I think they'll have to air it out a lot to try to keep up with Green Bay, and I think Philly won't let Ben do what he did against Oakland in Week 3 (and what Peyton Manning did to Oakland this past week...maybe it's just a trend with Oakland).  You also may have noticed Andy "Red Rocket" Dalton cracking this week's top 10 QBs.  He's looking like a solid fantasy quarterback this year, and he's going up against that Dolphin secondary that is getting smoked every week.  I can't find him in any expert's top 10, so I guess he'll be MY pick this week.  I also have Eli over Peyton in their week 5 matchups, and if anyone wants to take that bet as to which Manning gets more fantasy points this week, bring it on!


RBs
1.Arian Foster
2.Ray Rice
3.Marshawn Lynch
4.Adrian Peterson
5.Trent Richardson
6.Jamaal Charles
7.Frank Gore
8.LeSean McCoy
9.Maurice Jones-Drew
10.Ryan Mathews
11.Reggie Bush
12.Michael Turner
13.Matt Forte
14.Darren Sproles
15.Alfred Morris
16.Stevan Ridley
17.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
18.Cedric Benson
19.Willis McGahee
20.Chris Johnson
21.CJ Spiller
22.Ahmad Bradshaw
23.Steven Jackson
24.Donald Brown
25.Ryan Williams
26.Michael Bush
27.Fred Jackson
28.Ben Tate
29.DeAngelo Williams
30.Shonn Greene
31.Jackie Battle
32.Rashard Mendenhall
33.Jacquizz Rodgers
34.Danny Woodhead
35.Pierre Thomas
36.Jonathan Stewart
37.Robert Turbin
38.Kendall Hunter
39.Brandon Bolden
40.Lance Ball

I stayed down on Andre Brown in week 4, and I'll be down on him as long as Bradshaw is healthy.  I ranked Michael Bush at 11th in week 4, but that was assuming Forte would be out.  Had I taken the time to update my rankings on Monday, he would've fallen considerably.  Also, I had Marshawn Lynch ranked pretty highly when compared to some of the experts out there in week 4, and he finished 3rd amongst all RBs.  Just a little pat on the back there for myself.  Yes I was wrong about a ton of other stuff (including my own fantasy football team), but it's the little victories that help.  I'm going to continue to rank Jamaal Charles in my top 10, no matter who he's going up against.  Baltimore has a tough rush defense, but I wouldn't think twice about starting Charles.  I'm also keeping the faith in Ryan Mathews.  I think they were just easing him in last week, and although I think Battle could steal a goalline TD away from him this week in New Orleans, I think there will be plenty of points to go around.  I sure hope so because I have three Chargers going Sunday night!  One final note: Mark Ingram is officially off my list (sadly for my fantasy team).  Hopefully he'll rejoin the list in the weeks to come, but it's not looking good.


WRs
1.AJ Green
2.Roddie White
3.Andre Johnson
4.Percy Harvin
5.Larry Fitzgerald
6.Victor Cruz
7.Brandon Marshall
8.Mike Wallace
9.Brandon Lloyd
10.Julio Jones
11.Reggie Wayne
12.Demaryius Thomas
13.Jordy Nelson
14.Torrey Smith
15.Wes Welker
16.Steve Smith
17.Steve Johnson
18.Dwayne Bowe
19.Antonio Brown
20.DeShaun Jackson
21.Marques Colston
22.Eric Decker
23.Malcom Floyd
24.Danny Amendola
25.Pierre Garcon
26.Brian Hartline
27.Lance Moore
28.James Jones
29.Jeremy Maclin
30.Andre Roberts
31.Michael Crabtree
32.Domenik Hixon
33.Greg Little
34.Anquan Boldin
35.Andrew Hawkins
36.Brandon LaFell
37.Leonard Hankerson
38.Jerome Simpson
39.Davone Bess
40.Nate Washington

Last week I said Britt would be back, but maybe I jumped the gun a little bit.  He was inactive due to an injury, so obviously he didn't do too much in week 4.  I'm doubling down this week though.  Actually, check that.  I'm not going to be updating my rankings again this week, so let me just say that I'm doubling down for whenever he plays again (and I'll leave him off the list this week).  If it's not this week, I'm (fairly) confident it'll be next week.  Britt is a guy that when healthy can be extremely dangerous.  If it is this week, I think he'll do some damage. OK I'm done talking about Kenny Britt. Brandon Lloyd is back in the top 10 for me, and I think he'll be there to stay.  And will you look at Reggie Wayne all the way up there near the top.  I'm picking Luck to have a big week, so I have to pick Wayne to be up there too.  Maybe he breaks into the top 10 next week.  Who knows?

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Jimmy Graham
3.Vernon Davis
4.Tony Gonzalez
5.Antonio Gates
6.Jermichael Finley
7.Kyle Rudolph
8.Dennis Pitta
9.Brent Celek
10.Fred Davis
11.Martellus Bennett
12.Greg Olsen
13.Owen Daniels
14.Heath Miller
15.Jared Cook
16.Jermaine Gresham
17.Scott Chandler
18.Jacob Tamme

In the end, I went with Gates over Pitta last week, and it was a good decision.  Although it didn't help me out to a victory, I like making the right calls in fantasy football the same way I like making them in poker.  If a "right" call turns out to be wrong, I can live with it if I feel like I made the right, educated choice.  Of course a lot of fantasy football is a total crap shoot, but this is how I feel about it anyway.  I'm dropping Bennett down a bit.  I'm just concerned about his consistency.  Not sure why I'm not as worried about Pitta, but I'm just not.  Scott Chandler now makes the list with his 2 TDs last week, but he just doesn't get enough targets to be a guy I'm going to rank any higher than 14th or 15th...at least not yet.

DEF
1.Texans
2.49ers
3.Ravens
4.Bears
5.Giants
6.Cardinals
7.Vikings
8.Seahawks
9.Bengals
10.Steelers
11.Packers
12.Rams
13.Eagles
14.Falcons

I almost want to just stop ranking defenses too.  It's so hard!  Arizona was my top pick for week 4, and they were in the top 10, but I didn't give enough love to the Niners and Texans.  Those two blew up against the Jets and Titans, respectively.  I'm really surprised Seattle didn't get to the quarterback or cause more turnovers against the Rams, but they were respectable.  I'm going to continue to rank them highly every week because they're so solid.  I mean, they still only allowed 19 points on the road.  The Vikings are looking like a solid defense, and I actually picked them up in my league this week.  All of the other teams I have ranked above them are taken, so I need to stick to my rankings.  Hopefully it'll work out for me this week.  Good luck everyone (except House this week...sorry dude).


Cheers,
Bart

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