Wednesday, November 25, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings

Last week I changed up the format of my weekly commentary below my rankings, and I'm going to stick with it.  If you missed last week, basically I'm going to give you a guy or two at each position who I think is an obvious start, a not-so-obvious start, and then a guy I don't really like which I'll call "the ceiling is the roof".  For an explanation of what that means, just scroll way down and check last week's post.  But we're getting close to the fantasy playoffs, so I'd rather look forward than backward.  

In most leagues, you have just two weeks to establish your position in your playoffs.  Once you're in the playoffs, you never know what can happen.  It's not real's fantasy!  The 6 seed can much more easily take down the higher seed with the amount of randomness and luck involved here.  So let's get right to it.  If you have specific questions not answered by my rankings, hit me up on Twitter @bartonwheeler.

Obvious Start: In case you were thinking about benching Cam Newton, just know in all three of his plus matchups this season he's finished as a top-12 QB: Seattle (QB2), Buffalo (QB12), and NY Jets (QB8).  The Cardinals haven't faced a ton of competent QBs this year, but guys like Russell Wilson and Josh Allen have finished as top-5 fantasy QBs against Arizona.  I'm not saying Cam is still in that same conversation as those two, but he's better than a lot of the other QBs the Cardinals have faced.  I'd fire him up and wouldn't look to stream anyone else unless you really trust my next guy over him (I think it's a coin flip).

Not-So-Obvious Start: If you have Patrick Mahomes and streamed Derek Carr in Week 10 against Denver, you were severely disappointed.  But the Broncos have a good defense.  You know who doesn't have a good defense?  The Falcons don't have a good defense.  In fact, they're giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and that's who Carr and the Raiders are facing this week.  He's easily the best streaming option even in a week with no byes (and thus a ton of options).

The Ceiling is the Roof: I'm going back to the well with Matthew Stafford because he's still dealing with a torn ligament in his thumb on his throwing hand, and both Golladay and Amendola continue to be out with injuries.  Hockenson is banged up but playing through it, which leaves Marvin Jones and not a lot of other reliable options for Stafford.  There are plenty of other guys I'd prefer to stream and just ignore Stafford on Thanksgiving.

Obvious Start: I feel like he should be an obvious start, but it's possible people have forgotten about David Montgomery a bit.  He was out with a concussion and then had his bye in Week 11, but he should be back this week against Green Bay.  The Packers are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, and Montgomery should get all the work he can handle in this contest.  He probably won't finish as a top-10 RB, but he's nearly a sure thing to finish in the 15-20 range.

Not-So-Obvious Start: Detroit has been terrible against running backs and specifically pass catching running backs.  I know Duke Johnson hasn't done a lot with the opportunity with David Johnson out, but I'd have a hard time not starting him tomorrow against the Lions.

The Ceiling is the Roof: I wouldn't be fooled by Melvin Gordon's big game last week against the Dolphins.  He's facing a Saints defense this week who has been one of the best units against the run for the past month.  I'll still have him ranked as an RB3, but I would look for a higher upside WR to plug into my FLEX this week.

Obvious Start: Last week I told you not to overthink it with Tyler Lockett.  I said if he was healthy enough to play, you're starting him.  He finished as a top-12 WR against the Cardinals.  The same goes for Julio Jones this week.  If he's not healthy enough to play, he won't play.  If he is healthy enough to play, get him in your lineup.  Now is not the time to sit a guy like Julio.

Not-So-Obvious Start: He got off to a slow start to the season, so people might not be realizing just how much D.J. Moore is coming on as of late. And somehow he quietly has the 5th most receiving yards in the league!  I think it goes unnoticed because he's had so many fantasy finishes outside of the top-40, but he's been the WR13 and WR8 the last two weeks.  He gets the Viking inexperienced secondary here in Week 12, and with Bridgewater likely back I think he's a must start.

The Ceiling is the Roof: I warned you about Travis Fulgham last week, and this week I'm backing off Christian Kirk against New England.  This is risky because Kirk is explosive and could break for a touchdown at any time, but I think the Patriot corners will keep him in check.  I just feel like this boom or bust WR is going to bust for a third straight week.

Obvious Start: In case you hadn't noticed, Justin Herbert finally got his tight end into the endzone the last couple of weeks.  Hunter Henry has been a top-5 TE in each of those weeks, and I'd of course fire him up this week against the Bills.

Not-So-Obvious Start: I'm going deep with this one because I have blind faith in my guy Will Dissly.  He was an amazing fantasy tight end last year until he was lost to a season-ending injury.  He's been healthy this year but only has one catch in each of his last 4 games.  But with Greg Olsen now out for the year with an injury, I feel like Dissly will get most of those vacated targets.  I like for him to sneak into the top-12 TEs this week, and he just might be a decent TE you can play down the stretch.  Also if you want someone who the ECR is ranking a bit higher and has a more clear path to targets, the Niners will have to throw to someone and Jordan Reed could be a great streamer against the Rams. 

The Ceiling is the Roof: I didn't see anything out of Jared Cook in Taysom Hill's first start that would lead me to think he will do anything here in Week 12.  Not only would I not play him, but I'd gladly cut him for a number of guys on the waiver wire.

Week 11 wasn't great with my betting picks, but I was still in the positive with my over/under selections.  Those have easily been my best on the season.  Let's see who we have here in Week 12...

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings

As you might imagine, I listen to a bunch of fantasy football podcasts every week, and there are a handful of articles I read from time to time.  When I saw Matthew Berry tweet a link to his Week 10 Love/Hate article and found out it's now behind a paywall, I was a little surprised and slightly bummed.  But like, whatever.  If that's what ESPN is doing with some of their content, that's what they're doing.  I don't get the people tweeting hateful stuff at the guy because the content is now on ESPN+.  If you really want to read it, then get ESPN+.  Or not.  It's really up to you.  

Anyway, it got me thinking about my own format of my weekly rankings.  I tend to point out guys I like/don't like versus the ECR, but that also ends up changing between Wednesday and Sunday every week.  I also was thinking about how I used to read Berry's Love/Hate and could often predict who he would "love" and "hate" because to me a lot of them are obvious calls due to matchups, recent performance, etc.  So instead of my usual format, I'm going to change it up.  I'll give you a guy or two at each position who I think is an obvious start, a not-so-obvious start, and then a guy I don't really like which I'll call "the ceiling is the roof".  

If you don't remember Michael Jordan saying that during halftime of a Duke/UNC basketball game, well he did.  It was one of those moments that just makes you go "huh?!"  I considered going with "the floor is lava", but obviously I'm not going to like a guy with a zero floor.  "The celing is the roof" in my mind is a guy who I'm just not excited about starting at all.  Sure, he has a ceiling...but like, it's the roof.  You can see it.  I don't think he's winning you a week, and quite frankly I think he'll probably be kind of a dud (just like MJ's comment).

Maybe the format will stick.  Maybe it's won't.  It might be a little long this week, and maybe I'll tighten it up a bit in Week 12.  Feel free to let me know what you think on Twitter @bartonwheeler.

Let's do the rankings!

Obvious Start: When Julio has been healthy this year, Matt Ryan has been a QB1.  You're starting him against the Saints and not even thinking about it.  Another no-brainer is Ben Roethlisberger who is coming off a 4 TD performance against the Bengals.  This week it doesn't get any harder as the Steelers face the Jags.  As someone who has James Conner in a couple of leagues, I can tell you that Pittsburgh hasn't really committed much to the run.  I expect Big Ben to easily be a top-10 fantasy QB for the third straight week.

Not-So-Obvious Start: I reserve the right to change my mind on this guy in the coming days if we get any info from the Saints that Taysom Hill is going to start or split snaps or something crazy...but how can you not like Jameis Winston against Atlanta?  I won a championship last year with this roller coaster of a QB, and it was certainly a wild ride.  He might fumble and throw a couple of picks, but that just means he'll need to chuck the ball even more and put up yards/TDs.  I'm not saying it'll be just like last year, but combine his potential with arguably the best matchup against the Falcons, and I think he's a start here in Week 11.

The Ceiling is the Roof: I was at the playoff game last year in Baltimore when they lost to the Titans, and I think they'll be fired up to get some revenge in this game.  I don't expect Ryan Tannehill to put up big numbers, and I think it'll be a lot of Derrick Henry in this one.  I also am trusting Matthew Stafford less and less as the week progresses.  It's not a great matchup against the Panthers, and Stafford is dealing with a torn ligament in his thumb...on his throwing hand!  Sounds important.  If Golladay is back to practicing in full and Stafford looks good to go, I might change my tune a bit.  But for now, I'd be shying away from playing Detroit's QB this week.

Obvious Start: It's hard to find an "obvious" start outside of my top-20, so I'll stay in that range with rookies D'Andre Swift & Antonio Gibson.  Both have been more involved in their teams' game plans in the second half of the season, and both are coming off top-10 performances last week.  Swift has the better matchup this week, but I'd fire them both up here in Week 11.

Not-So-Obvious Start: I feel like Damien Harris should be in the obvious category, but people tend to be scared off by Patriot running backs.  Not only does he have over 100 yards rushing in 2 of his last 3 games, but he also has the best matchup this week according to the Harris Index (ironically enough...but that's Christopher Harris, not Damien Harris).  The real not-so-obvious start though is Kalen Ballage.  Now that he's gotten away from Adam Gase (twice!), Ballage has been a top-20 fantasy RB in back-to-back weeks.  Who is he playing this week?  Adam Gase and the Jets!  It's like a super revenge game.  Start HIM!

The Ceiling is the Roof: If you're considering starting Phillip Lindsay this week, stop it...get some help.  The only game this year in which he had more than 9 rushes was Week 6 when Melvin Gordon was out with an illness.  Otherwise Gordon has clearly been the lead back for the Broncos.  Even if Lindsay somehow gets 10 touches this week, I don't expect him to be anywhere near a top-30 RB.  You can do better.

Obvious Start: Don't overthink this one.  If Tyler Lockett is healthy enough to play tomorrow night, you're starting him against the Cardinals.  Remember when Patrick Peterson shadowed D.K. Metcalf in Week 7?  Remember what Lockett did?  If not, I'll remind you: 15 catches for 200 yards and 3 TDs.  He obviously won't do that again, but please don't consider benching him.  If he plays, you play him.

Not-So-Obvious Start: I'm pretty excited about starting Brandin Cooks in a league this week.  He's led the Texans in targets since the departure of Bill O'Brien, and he's been quietly a top-20 WR in 3 of his last 5 games.  If Stephon Gilmore misses a fourth straight game, I expect J.C. Jackson to cover Will Fuller and Cooks to go crazy in this game.  I feel like he'll be open the entire game in that scenario, and if Gilmore is out I'll likely bump Cooks up into my top-20 WRs.

The Ceiling is the Roof: With Jalen Reagor, Alshon Jeffrey, and Dallas Goedert now all healthy, I'm kind of worried about the role for Travis Fulgham moving forward.  Last week he had one catch for 8 yards, and I'd have a hard time putting him in my lineup this week against the Browns.

Obvious Start: I'm playing against him in my main league of record, so Darren Waller is going off against the Chiefs.  If you have him, you're starting him.  But hey, that's why this is the obvious category, right?

Not-So-Obvious Start: Sure, Austin Hooper had a bad game last week in his first action since his appendectomy, but so did everyone in the passing game.  The weather was terrible, but it looks like Cleveland might finally have a game without 40 mph winds this week.  I expect Hooper to be heavily involved in this game, and I actually like him to be a top-10 TE the rest of the year with the nice matchups he has remaining on the schedule.

The Ceiling is the Roof: I'll give you two: Tyler Higbee and Robert Tonyan.  Both guys had 3-TD performances earlier this season, and both guys haven't done much else outside of those games.  They're touchdown or bust dart throws, but that's kind of the tight end position after the top-5 or so guys.  

Last week I went 4-0-1 with my over/under picks after going 6-0 in Week 9.  Somehow I'm on a roll with those, but I'd really like to get back on track at least with my picks against the spread too.  We'll see if I can do that here in Week 11.

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Week 10 Rankings

As you likely know, you only have a few more weeks to get into (or stay in) your league's playoff picture.  A lot of fantasy trade deadlines are this week, so swing a last minute deal if you can.  Be sure to take a look at your league settings and don't let the deadline pass you by.  If you have questions about a trade or otherwise, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @bartonwheeler.

OK.  Let's get right into the Week 10 rankings!

Before the 1:00 games kicked off on Sunday, I went on Twitter to call my shot with Drew Lock.  I bumped him up in my rankings to QB14 (+3 vs ECR), but my gut said he could finish as a top-5 play against the Falcons.  He did exactly that.  It wasn't pretty, but he got it done.  This week, Lock faces the Raiders and he could do his best impression of somewhere between Bortles and Jameis yet again.  I have him as a borderline top-15 QB, but as we get closer to Sunday I might just inch him closer to my top-10.  You could do worse with a streaming QB this week.  Maybe just don't watch the game...

I ranked Zeke all the way down at RB17 in Week 8, which was 7 spots lower than ECR.  He finished as the RB32.  I then ranked him as the RB29 in Week 9, and he finished as the RB29.  The Cowboys have a bye this week, and then hopefully at least Andy Dalton will be back to run this offense.  But Zeke might be someone to sell at the deadline if you can still get a top-12 RB for him.  I'm not confident he'll be that for the rest of the season.

I was really low on Le'Veon Bell last week (8 spots lower than ECR), and he'll likely be outside of my top-30 RBs when the Chiefs come back from their bye in Week 11.  He might even hit some waiver wires this week, so if you have CEH...maybe just check the waiver wire for Bell.  This is the time of year to start thinking about grabbing those high upside backups (even if you aren't the manager with the starter).  I realize Bell hasn't done much yet, but he's certainly an injury away from being a productive RB in the league's best offense.

I was down on more Cowboys than just Zeke last week, as I said I didn't think they'd score more than 13 points against Pittsburgh.  Well, somehow they scored 19 points, but CeeDee Lamb was the only decent producer in this game.  He ended up with 4 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown.  Amari Cooper was serviceable for fantasy purposes, and Michael Gallup was mostly an afterthought.  As with Zeke, hopefully Dalton will be back and help all Cowboys when they're back in action against the Vikings in Week 11.  If their offensive line can get a little healthier, I might even trust all of these guys a bit in the last third of the season.

My Week 10 betting picks are below.  I wasn't great against the spread last week, but I was good with my over/under picks for the third week in a row: 6-0!  We'll see if I can keep that streak going.


Friday, November 6, 2020

2020 midseason check-in on my preseason takes

Like every year, I write a lot of preseason articles to get my takes on record before the games begin.  I thought I'd pause here at the midway point of the season and check in on how some of these are going.  I'll link to each preseason article in the sections below in case you'd like to take a trip down preseason memory lane, and I'll highlight a few takes from each that are looking good so far (or not!).

Back in August, I looked at all 32 teams and tried to find one "value" guy on each squad who I liked the most based on his ADP at that time (Average Draft Position - using FantasyPros as my reference for half PPR leagues).

Here are a few guys I highlighted who are clearly outperforming their preseason ADP:
James Conner - ADP 44, currently RB11
Tyler Boyd - ADP 76, currently WR8
Will Fuller V - ADP 85, currently WR16
Ronald Jones - ADP 95, currently RB13
Darrell Henderson - ADP 111, currently RB17
Hayden Hurst - ADP 114, currently TE8
Jonnu Smith - ADP 138, currently TE7
Justin Jefferson - ADP 133, currently WR18
Chase Edmonds - ADP 193, currently RB28

And excluding injuries, these are shaping up to be a few bad takes from that article:
Jordan Howard - ADP 88, currently RB76
Marvin Jones - ADP 97, currently WR53
Golden Tate - ADP 147, currently WR68
Ian Thomas - ADP 193, currently TE48

Seriously, Ian Thomas?!?  I know this was a last round type of flier anyway, but this guy has had every opportunity.  And with the tight end position being such a wasteland and barely a top-50 TE at the midway point of the season, this might be one of my worst calls of the preseason.  But if you go back and look at the article, I assure you I have way more hits than misses.  A lot of my preseason deep sleepers are on the IR, so I'm not counting those during this evaluation.

This is my favorite preseason article to write.  It's a Q&A format that includes some of my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc. based on historical trends.  I'll point out a few below and see if any are trending in the right direction as we're now halfway through the fantasy season...

Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Phillip Lindsay (2018), or Devin Singletary (2019)?
[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues.  He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]

My preseason Answer: Zack Moss
Honorable Mention: Josh Kelley
Current ACTUAL Answer: James Robinson 

Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), or Raheem Mostert (2019)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

My preseason Answer: Tarik Cohen
Honorable Mention: Tevin Coleman
Current ACTUAL Answer: Chase Edmonds might be the front runner, but Rex Burkhead is a dark horse candidate.  He's currently the RB35, and you just never know with New England RBs...

Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), or A.J. Brown (2019)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-20 fantasy WR.]

My preseason Answer: Tee Higgins
Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk
Current ACTUAL Answer: Tee Higgins (WR24)...or maybe Aiyuk (WR26)!!

NOTE: A lot of rookie WRs were being taken in the top-150 or so in August drafts: CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, and Jalen Reagor.  So they were all excluded from this question/answer.  But it looks like Higgins and/or Aiyuk could end up fitting this category by the end of the year.

Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), or Lamar Jackson (2019)?
[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]

My preseason Answer: Daniel Jones
Honorable Mention: Gardner Minshew II
Current ACTUAL Answer: Burrow and Herbert are rookies, so they don't quite fit this category.  It's possible Minshew ends up as the answer (currently the QB17 on the season), but he's not starting after the bye so that's not looking great anymore.  If Kyler finishes as the overall QB1 then it's him.  Either way, it's decidedly NOT Daniel Jones.  I'm very, very sorry about that.

Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), Alex Collins (2017), or Tarik Cohen (2018)?
[Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2017.]

My preseason Answer: Darrell Henderson
Honorable Mention: Alexander Mattison (Dalvin Cook has shown to be injury prone in his career)
Current ACTUAL Answer: Darrell Henderson!!!

This was the very last preseason article I wrote before the season started, and it was a new one this year for me.  Throughout July and August, I felt like I heard a lot of the same narratives from people like me who write, tweet, podcast about fantasy football.  I wanted to play devil's advocate and give a take on each team that wasn't being considered much.  These weren't takes I was "all in" on, but I think it's important not to get too focused on the groupthink mentality and make sure you step back and consider other possibilities.  There were obviously 32 of these, so it was a long article. I'll just highlight a few below.

Buffalo Bills
Preseason take:
[If Josh Allen] is better, I think a big part of that could be because he now has Stefon Diggs to throw to...No one is talking up Diggs like he can be a WR1 this year, but he has that potential if Allen can get him the ball.

Midseason Verdict:
Josh Allen has cooled off as of late, but he's still the QB4 and a big part of that is Diggs (who is the WR6 after 8 weeks and leads the NFL in targets).  We'll see how both do in the second half of the season with the weather turning cold in Buffalo, and the Bills still have their bye week ahead of them.  But Diggs has been a huge surprise not many people were talking up in the preseason.

Indianapolis Colts
Preseason take:
What if Jonathan Taylor gets 75-80% of the carries from Day 1?...In that "Day 1" scenario, I could see Jonathan Taylor finishing as a top-5 fantasy RB.

Midseason Verdict:
The crazy thing is, this was gifted to the fantasy community with the unfortunate injury to Marlon Mack.  Taylor has had the opportunity since Day 1 to be the guy, but he just hasn't done it yet.  Still, he's the RB21 on the season and is past his bye week.  There's still time for him to explode in the second half and finish in the top-5, though it feels more and more unlikely by the week.

Tennessee Titans
Preseason take:
What if Ryan Tannehill just keeps doing what he did as a starter in 2019?...Tannehill is getting no love this year, and everyone expects him to regress.  What if he just doesn't...?

Midseason Verdict:
Was anyone outside of Tennessee expecting Tannehill to continue to be a viable fantasy starter this year?  In short, no.  Right now he's the QB10 and is a consistent fantasy QB week in and week out.

Detroit Lions
Preseason take:
What if T.J. Hockenson is healthy for all 16 games and is the next George Kittle? 

Midseason Verdict:
While the Kittle-like breakout hasn't happened yet, Hockenson is the TE4 and we'll see how the second half of the season unfolds.  With Kittle himself likely to miss the rest of the season due to an injury, Hockenson could realistically finish as the #2 fantasy tight end behind just Travis Kelce this year.

Good luck to everyone here in Week 9, and I'll revisit this article in January!


Wednesday, November 4, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Week 9 Rankings

For a lot of people, Tuesday was a real letdown.  Yes, the NFL Trade Deadline came and went without much fanfare.  

Wait, what did you think I was talking about?

Of course if you're into politics, well, you might've been letdown there too.  I'm not here to talk about Trump and Biden though.  I'll keep this post strictly to fantasy football.  I've been on a bit of a hot streak with my rankings accuracy lately.  The last three weeks I've finished 2nd, 13th, and 12th.  I'm hoping I can keep the streak alive here in Week 9.  Let's get right into it, shall we?

I talked up Joe Burrow again last week, and he ended up as a top-12 QB for the second week in a row.  But it was actually Justin Herbert who I ended up highest on (+6 vs ECR).  He was all the way in my top-3, and he finished as the QB4.  He's been the QB4 or better now three straight weeks, so I don't see how you could rank him outside of the top-5 this week against the Raiders.  I was slightly down on Tom Brady in Week 8, but in the end I wasn't too low versus the ECR after lowering a bunch of other guys due to weather concerns.  Luckily this week it doesn't look like we'll have any wind issues, so hopefully the QB position is a little more predictable. 

I'm not super high on anyone this week, but I'm tempted to trust Cam Newton against the Jets.  I currently have him in my top-10, and he might even be on your waiver wire right now.  He could be a fun play on Monday Night Football if you want a high upside QB to play in the last game of the week.  I'm slightly down on Nick Mullens in tomorrow night's game, but at QB25 does it really even matter?  His receiving options are all injured or hitting the COVID list, so I'm not exactly sure how to expect him to score many fantasy points tomorrow night against the Packers.  There are obviously better streaming options at the position here in Week 9.

I ended up ranking Zeke all the way down at RB17 last week, which was 7 spots lower than ECR.  With Ben DiNucci under center against the Eagles, I wasn't confident this offense could move the ball.  They didn't.  Elliott finished as the RB29 on the week, and I wouldn't blame you if you benched him this week against the Steelers.  I currently have him ranked outside of my top-20, and the ECR still has him as a borderline RB1.  I can't do it until Andy Dalton and some of his O-line gets healthy.

This week I'm high on Matt Breida, at least as of this writing.  He missed practice today, but as long as it's not a serious injury and he's good to go against the Cardinals, he should get a decent workload with Gaskin out.  Jordan Howard will likely be active and steal work inside the 5 yard line, but I still like a healthy Breida to be a top-20 option.

I didn't talk too much about specific WR picks last week, but here in Week 9 I'm clearly down on more Cowboys.  I just don't think they'll score more than 13 points against Pittsburgh, and who exactly is getting the ball into the hands of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb?  I currently have both more than 10 spots lower than ECR, and I wouldn't be excited to start anyone for Dallas this week.  I'd sit them all if you have a better/close option.

If you're interested in my betting picks for Week 9, I've posted them below as usual.  I've actually done OK with my over/under picks the last two weeks and I went 5-0 with my moneyline bets last week.  That included two underdogs in the Falcons and Vikings.  That's right.  I picked Minnesota over the Packers, baby!  You have to pay close attention to the divisional rematches now that we're starting to get more of those.  It can be tough to beat the same divisional opponent twice in the same season.