This is probably my favorite preseason article to write, and I've been doing it for a while now. If you're new to this article, it's a Q&A format that includes some of my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc. You may or may not remember Zac Stacy. I don't blame you if you don't recognize the name because he was kind of a blip on the radar. But for me, it just feels right to name this preseason piece after him. There are several trends I've noticed during the years I've been writing about fantasy football, and I've hand picked a guy to fit each category for the 2020 season. There's not always a player who fits each category, but as you'll see, it's pretty close to always. Let's see if I can get any of these right this year.
Enjoy!
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[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues. He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]
A: Zack Moss
There were SIX running backs taken in the first two rounds of this year's draft, so that eliminates a lot of guys from this long shot category. Ke'shawn Vaughn went in the 3rd round, but he's somehow still being drafted too highly to be in the mix for this too. That leaves a few guys who could be drafted in the later rounds and ultimately breakout by midseason. The guy I like the most is Zack Moss who has an ADP around 150. The Bills have an above average run blocking O-line and Frank Gore leaves 166 vacated carries now that he’s a Jet. Moss broke all kinds of Utah rushing records, and he could potentially push Singletary for the most carries in Buffalo’s offense. And while Josh Allen likes to call his own number near the endzone, Moss has a nose for paydirt as well. He could lead a timeshare for a team expected to win 9 or 10 games this year and likes to run the ball.
Honorable Mention: Josh Kelley
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), or Raheem Mostert (2019)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
A: Tarik Cohen
You may be thinking this should've been Austin Ekeler last year, but he didn't sneak into the top-20. With Melvin Gordon holding out to start the season, Ekeler shot up draft boards and was a solid fantasy producer all year. Mostert definitely flew under the radar though, and this year I think it could be Tarik Cohen. He actually fit a different category I’ll highlight later when he finished top-20 in his sophomore season. I don’t see why he can’t do it again as a “shifty veteran” in Year 4. He’s still the same explosive player. He just needs to break a few more plays and he’ll be right in that mix again.
Honorable Mention: Tevin Coleman
Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), or A.J. Brown (2019)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-20 fantasy WR.]
A: Tee Higgins
This happens almost every year, but with so many promising rookie WRs, this one is tough to predict. A lot of rookie WRs this season are being taken in the top-150 or so: CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, and Jalen Reagor.
So I'm going to look at receivers outside of that range, and Tee Higgins feels like the best talent of the rest of the bunch. Sure, he might not have the clearest path to targets with guys like A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and even John Ross likely ahead of him on the depth chart. But how confident are you that A.J. Green will be healthy this year? And couldn't we ask the same question about John Ross? I can see a world in which Tee Higgins is minimally involved for the first month of the season but finally gets his chance in October and breaks out with Joe Burrow slinging the pigskin.
So I'm going to look at receivers outside of that range, and Tee Higgins feels like the best talent of the rest of the bunch. Sure, he might not have the clearest path to targets with guys like A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and even John Ross likely ahead of him on the depth chart. But how confident are you that A.J. Green will be healthy this year? And couldn't we ask the same question about John Ross? I can see a world in which Tee Higgins is minimally involved for the first month of the season but finally gets his chance in October and breaks out with Joe Burrow slinging the pigskin.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk
Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), or Lamar Jackson (2019)?
[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]
A: Daniel Jones
I nailed this one last year, and it's crazy now to think that Lamar wasn't getting the love he deserved before the season started. But who could make that leap this year? I think Kyler Murray is the obvious choice to make a leap into the top-3 or so, but his ADP is already inside the top-5 QBs selected, and that's about where I have him. He certainly has the potential to finish as one of the top fantasy QBs, but that's where he's being drafted. I'd actually like to talk about Daniel Jones here because I think he's set up to thrive with Jason Garrett calling the plays in New York now. Garrett was more pass-heavy than you’d expect as an OC, and the Giants have some really good receiving weapons for the second year QB. With a tough early season schedule, I think Jones could get off to a slow start. But after the first month, the schedule softens up big time. If he can make it out of September alive, I think Jones will be a top-12 fantasy QB the rest of the way.
Honorable Mention: Gardner Minshew II
Q: Who is this year's Cam Newton & Andy Dalton (2013-2014), Ben Roethlisberger (2014-2015), Carson Palmer & Cam Newton (2015-2016), Matt Ryan (2016-2017), Carson Wentz (2017-2018), or Andrew Luck (2018-2019)?
[Description: A top-5 fantasy QB who finishes outside of the top-15 the following year, and not due to a serious injury that season.]
A: Dak Prescott
OK so obviously Jameis Winston is the most likely to finish outside of the top-15 fantasy QBs since he's basically the 3rd string QB in New Orleans now. I guess you could say he fits into that Andrew Luck category...sort of. But I wanted to look at the other top-5 finishers and pick one of them to fall that far out of favor. It's tough to do because Lamar feels like a sure thing unless he gets injured, and Russell Wilson has literally never finished outside of the top-15 fantasy QBs so I'm not betting against Mr. Unliiiiiiiimited. That leaves Dak and Watson. I don't really want to pick either, but if I had to pick one, I guess I'd pick Dak. I could see there being some growing pains with a new head coach, and maybe the Cowboys lean more on Zeke and even give Tony Pollard more carries. Dak has some great receivers, but last year was the first in his career when he threw for over 4000 yards and had 30+ total TDs. Maybe it was just a career year and he falls back to earth a bit? It's not super likely, but this is not an easy call to make either.
Honorable Mention: Deshaun Watson
Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), Alex Collins (2017), or Tarik Cohen (2018)?
[Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2017.]
A: Darrell Henderson
This trend was happening every year until Rashaad Penny got hurt and couldn't do it in 2019. This season, Darrell Henderson should have every opportunity to be the guy. Everyone is assuming Cam Akers will win this job, but the Rams insist they have several good running backs. That includes Darrell Henderson, who was a 3rd round draft pick himself just a year ago. Malcolm Brown is a JAG (just a guy), and Akers is a rookie. Henderson had a rough rookie year himself, but at least he has experience. And he's already looking good (and healthy!) in training camp. He could lead this RBBC and be a top-20 RB this year.
Honorable Mention: Alexander Mattison (Dalvin Cook has shown to be injury prone in his career)
Q: Who is this year's Julius Thomas (2013), Antonio Gates (2014), Gary Barnidge (2015), Kyle Rudolph (2016), Evan Engram (2017), Eric Ebron and Jared Cook (2018), or Darren Waller (2019)?
[Description: A tight end who is virtually undrafted in fantasy leagues and ends up being a top-5 TE.]
A: Blake Jarwin
I know it's hard to believe all of those tight ends went undrafted in fantasy leagues during their top-5 seasons, but they all did. Ok. So maybe it’s not so hard to believe for Gary Barnidge. This year I’m picking a young guy ready to step into Jason Witten’s shoes (and his 80+ vacated targets). Jarwin isn’t even being drafted as a top-20 TE, but if he gets that target volume, he’s a sure thing to land in the top-12. This category is top-5, so that’s bold but within the realm of possibilities.
Honorable Mention: Ian Thomas
I'll post at least one more article and one more rankings update before Week 1 of the regular season. Until then, good luck in your drafts!
Cheers,
Bart
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