Monday, August 31, 2020

Fantasy Football 2020: Top 12 predictions for each position

I said this last year when I wrote this article, and I'll say it again: These are NOT my rankings.  

My preseason/draft rankings have things like injury risk, coaching changes, RB committees, and a ton of other things built into them.  What I've put together below are my predictions for who could finish the season in the top-12 at each position in a best case scenario with fully healthy seasons (at least for these guys).  My position lists below will provide you some additional insight into who I think has major upside and who might be prone to being a bust in 2020.  Last year I highlighted guys like Lamar Jackson, Chris Carson, and D.J. Moore as players I liked who not many people were projecting to be top-12 at their positions.  I was also really high on Vance McDonald, so of course they don't all work out.  

Keep in mind, I'm still more or less going to stick by my rankings when it comes to doing my fantasy drafts.  I suggest you do the same.  But these predictions are fun, and it's interesting to see what turns out to be right when the season ends.  Pay extra attention to my bold picks sprinkled throughout, and let's get to it!

Bengals QB Joe Burrow nets a No. 9 necklace valued at $25K

My preseason top-12 QBs

Deshaun Watson  
Patrick Mahomes
Kyler Murray 
Lamar Jackson  
Russell Wilson 
Matt Ryan
Dak Prescott  
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen  
Daniel Jones
Cam Newton
Jared Goff

Right away you'll notice I have Watson as my #1 overall fantasy QB this season.  Does that mean I'm drafting him ahead of Mahomes and Lamar?  Hell no.  But it does mean I'm ranking him over guys like Dak and Kyler, and I actually think it's the rushing yards/TDs that could get Deshaun to the top spot in a year when no one expects it.  

You'll also notice old guys like Rodgers, Brady, and Brees aren't on my list.  Sure, all of them could sneak into the top-12, but I could easily see all of them around the QB15 as well.  Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford could make this list too, but both guys have dealt with various injuries in recent years and that factored into me leaving them off the list.  

If you look at my picks in bold toward the end of the top-12, you'll notice I'd rather take a shot that someone like Cam Newton or even Joe Burrow cracks this list.  The rushing appeal of both guys should provide a good floor, and Burrow is especially intriguing since there's an unknown factor to the rookie.  I don't see why he couldn't do the same thing Kyler Murray did last year.  I also think Jared Goff could bounce back in a high volume pass offense and could make this list by end of season, and Daniel Jones has the ability to make that leap into the top-12 as well.

My preseason top-12 RBs
Ezekiel Elliott 
Saquon Barkley 
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry 
James Conner 
Miles Sanders
Kenyan Drake  
Ronald Jones 
Dalvin Cook 
Jonathan Taylor
Austin Ekeler

A lot of people think McCaffrey will repeat as the #1 RB and overall player this year, but that happens so rarely that I'm not going to project it to happen.  He has a new QB and coaching staff to navigate, so there are certainly some question marks for him even though he's obviously a special talent.  I think Zeke has a great shot at the top spot, and I always like to put a rookie in my top-12.  This year I put two on my list because in addition to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, I like Jonathan Taylor a lot too.  I thought he was the best RB prospect in this draft, and he landed in a spot with arguably the best run blocking offensive line.  You'll also notice James Conner and Ronald Jones in my top-10.  If Conner stays healthy for 15 or 16 games, I actually think he's a lock to be on this list (but health is the issue).  As for RoJo, he's certainly a wild card.  With Tom Brady in Tampa and Bruce Arians saying Jones will be the lead back, it's certainly possible he gets the workload and touchdowns to end up on this list.  

Others who I considered but just missed my projected top-12: Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones.  Look, any of these guys could crack this list but I wanted to throw in some longer shots and I couldn't have everyone in my top-12, now could I?  I also left off Alvin Kamara who now looks like a potential holdout in New Orleans.

AFC South preview: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville  Jaguars, Tennessee Titans | NFL News | Sky Sports

My preseason top-12 WRs
Davante Adams 
Michael Thomas  
Adam Thielen 
Tyreek Hill
Will Fuller 
Julio Jones
Robert Woods
Odell Beckham, Jr.
D.J. Moore
DeAndre Hopkins 
Marquise Brown
Kenny Golladay

You'll notice a theme here because I'm not projecting guys to repeat as the #1 at their position.  If anyone is going to overtake the single season reception record holder, it's Adams.  I'm not saying he'll break that record, but he could dominate @cantguardmike in the touchdown department and finish as the #1 fantasy WR.  I also like Adam Thielen to finish highly if he can stay healthy all year.  If that happens, I think he'll lead the league in targets (even in a run-heavy offense).  In this perfect world with no injuries, I also project Will Fuller as a top-5 fantasy WR and Marquise Brown in my top-12.  I like both of these guys a lot and hope to get a lot of shares of them in the middle rounds.  I also highlighted Robert Woods, who I have ranked higher than Kupp and would have no problem drafting him as my first WR if I go RB-heavy early in a draft.

13 Days Until Our Season Starts, So Here's #13 - Brandin Cooks : Texans

My preseason top-12 TEs
George Kittle
Mark Andrews
Travis Kelce 
Hayden Hurst
Zach Ertz
Jonnu Smith
Darren Waller 
Blake Jarwin
Hunter Henry
Chris Herndon
Ian Thomas
Jack Doyle

I really like Jonnu and Jarwin if you're doing the late-round tight end strategy.  In fact, you could probably select both at the end of your draft and hope one of them hits.  If you miss out on the Kelce/Kittle tier and then the Andrews/Ertz tier, I'd let other people draft the likes of Hunter Henry and Evan Engram and shoot for Hayden Hurst after a couple of those guys come off the board.  Hopefully he's not this year's Vance McDonald for me, as I think he could step into the vacated Austin Hooper role and easily be a top-5 fantasy TE.  Chris Herndon, Ian Thomas, and Jack Doyle also made the list because why not?  It's tight end.  If you can get to 500 yards and 5 touchdowns, you can make this list.

Cowboys exec: Blake Jarwin can be 'great' in Dallas, will 'spread his  wings' and likely break out in 2020 -

That's probably a wrap for the preseason articles.  I'll keep updating my rankings in my previous post before the season kicks off, and I'll post my Week 1 rankings in a week or so!


Monday, August 24, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings v5

Well, it's August.  Training camps are underway, and I'm finally getting out my preseason articles.  It's also starting to feel like the NFL might actually have a season.  And if I just jinxed it, then my bad.  It was definitely all my fault and not COVID's.  This might be my last rankings post before the season kicks off, but I'll continue to publish updates that should reflect on this page up until Labor Day or so.  Just check the date on the top right of the rankings table to see when it was last updated by yours truly.  If you have any questions/comments, hit me up on twitter @bartonwheeler.


Fantasy Alert: Clyde Edwards-Helaire 'To Have a Big Year,' Says ...

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Who is this year's Zac Stacy? (2020 Edition)

This is probably my favorite preseason article to write, and I've been doing it for a while now.  If you're new to this article, it's a Q&A format that includes some of my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc.  You may or may not remember Zac Stacy.  I don't blame you if you don't recognize the name because he was kind of a blip on the radar.  But for me, it just feels right to name this preseason piece after him.  There are several trends I've noticed during the years I've been writing about fantasy football, and I've hand picked a guy to fit each category for the 2020 season.  There's not always a player who fits each category, but as you'll see, it's pretty close to always.  Let's see if I can get any of these right this year.


2015 NFL Draft: Zac Stacy To Ask Rams For Release Or Trade ...

Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Phillip Lindsay (2018), or Devin Singletary (2019)?
[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues.  He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]

A: Zack Moss
There were SIX running backs taken in the first two rounds of this year's draft, so that eliminates a lot of guys from this long shot category.  Ke'shawn Vaughn went in the 3rd round, but he's somehow still being drafted too highly to be in the mix for this too.  That leaves a few guys who could be drafted in the later rounds and ultimately breakout by midseason.  The guy I like the most is Zack Moss who has an ADP around 150. The Bills have an above average run blocking O-line and Frank Gore leaves 166 vacated carries now that he’s a Jet. Moss broke all kinds of Utah rushing records, and he could potentially push Singletary for the most carries in Buffalo’s offense. And while Josh Allen likes to call his own number near the endzone, Moss has a nose for paydirt as well.  He could lead a timeshare for a team expected to win 9 or 10 games this year and likes to run the ball.

Honorable Mention: Josh Kelley

Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), or Raheem Mostert (2019)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

A: Tarik Cohen
You may be thinking this should've been Austin Ekeler last year, but he didn't sneak into the top-20.  With Melvin Gordon holding out to start the season, Ekeler shot up draft boards and was a solid fantasy producer all year.  Mostert definitely flew under the radar though, and this year I think it could be Tarik Cohen. He actually fit a different category I’ll highlight later when he finished top-20 in his sophomore season. I don’t see why he can’t do it again as a “shifty veteran” in Year 4. He’s still the same explosive player. He just needs to break a few more plays and he’ll be right in that mix again. 

Honorable Mention: Tevin Coleman

Where Did Human Joystick and Bears Difference-Maker Tarik Cohen ...

Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), or A.J. Brown (2019)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-20 fantasy WR.]

A: Tee Higgins
This happens almost every year, but with so many promising rookie WRs, this one is tough to predict.  A lot of rookie WRs this season are being taken in the top-150 or so: CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, and Jalen Reagor.

So I'm going to look at receivers outside of that range, and Tee Higgins feels like the best talent of the rest of the bunch.  Sure, he might not have the clearest path to targets with guys like A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and even John Ross likely ahead of him on the depth chart.  But how confident are you that A.J. Green will be healthy this year?  And couldn't we ask the same question about John Ross?  I can see a world in which Tee Higgins is minimally involved for the first month of the season but finally gets his chance in October and breaks out with Joe Burrow slinging the pigskin.

Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk

Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), or Lamar Jackson (2019)?
[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]

A: Daniel Jones
I nailed this one last year, and it's crazy now to think that Lamar wasn't getting the love he deserved before the season started.  But who could make that leap this year?  I think Kyler Murray is the obvious choice to make a leap into the top-3 or so, but his ADP is already inside the top-5 QBs selected, and that's about where I have him.  He certainly has the potential to finish as one of the top fantasy QBs, but that's where he's being drafted.  I'd actually like to talk about Daniel Jones here because I think he's set up to thrive with Jason Garrett calling the plays in New York now.  Garrett was more pass-heavy than you’d expect as an OC, and the Giants have some really good receiving weapons for the second year QB.  With a tough early season schedule, I think Jones could get off to a slow start.  But after the first month, the schedule softens up big time.  If he can make it out of September alive, I think Jones will be a top-12 fantasy QB the rest of the way.

Honorable Mention: Gardner Minshew II

Daniel Jones: A willing student ready to learn in Jerry ...

Q: Who is this year's Cam Newton & Andy Dalton (2013-2014), Ben Roethlisberger (2014-2015), Carson Palmer & Cam Newton (2015-2016), Matt Ryan (2016-2017), Carson Wentz (2017-2018), or Andrew Luck (2018-2019)?
[Description: A top-5 fantasy QB who finishes outside of the top-15 the following year, and not due to a serious injury that season.]

A: Dak Prescott
OK so obviously Jameis Winston is the most likely to finish outside of the top-15 fantasy QBs since he's basically the 3rd string QB in New Orleans now.  I guess you could say he fits into that Andrew Luck category...sort of.  But I wanted to look at the other top-5 finishers and pick one of them to fall that far out of favor.  It's tough to do because Lamar feels like a sure thing unless he gets injured, and Russell Wilson has literally never finished outside of the top-15 fantasy QBs so I'm not betting against Mr. Unliiiiiiiimited. That leaves Dak and Watson.  I don't really want to pick either, but if I had to pick one, I guess I'd pick Dak.  I could see there being some growing pains with a new head coach, and maybe the Cowboys lean more on Zeke and even give Tony Pollard more carries.  Dak has some great receivers, but last year was the first in his career when he threw for over 4000 yards and had 30+ total TDs.  Maybe it was just a career year and he falls back to earth a bit?  It's not super likely, but this is not an easy call to make either.

Honorable Mention: Deshaun Watson

Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), Alex Collins (2017), or Tarik Cohen (2018)?
[Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2017.]

A: Darrell Henderson
This trend was happening every year until Rashaad Penny got hurt and couldn't do it in 2019.  This season, Darrell Henderson should have every opportunity to be the guy. Everyone is assuming Cam Akers will win this job, but the Rams insist they have several good running backs.  That includes Darrell Henderson, who was a 3rd round draft pick himself just a year ago.  Malcolm Brown is a JAG (just a guy), and Akers is a rookie.  Henderson had a rough rookie year himself, but at least he has experience.  And he's already looking good (and healthy!) in training camp.  He could lead this RBBC and be a top-20 RB this year.

Honorable Mention: Alexander Mattison (Dalvin Cook has shown to be injury prone in his career)

Running back Darrell Henderson Jr. #27 of the Los Angeles Rams as ...

Q: Who is this year's Julius Thomas (2013), Antonio Gates (2014), Gary Barnidge (2015), Kyle Rudolph (2016), Evan Engram (2017), Eric Ebron and Jared Cook (2018), or Darren Waller (2019)?
[Description: A tight end who is virtually undrafted in fantasy leagues and ends up being a top-5 TE.]

A: Blake Jarwin
I know it's hard to believe all of those tight ends went undrafted in fantasy leagues during their top-5 seasons, but they all did.  Ok. So maybe it’s not so hard to believe for Gary Barnidge. This year I’m picking a young guy ready to step into Jason Witten’s shoes (and his 80+ vacated targets). Jarwin isn’t even being drafted as a top-20 TE, but if he gets that target volume, he’s a sure thing to land in the top-12. This category is top-5, so that’s bold but within the realm of possibilities. 

Honorable Mention: Ian Thomas

I'll post at least one more article and one more rankings update before Week 1 of the regular season.  

Until then, good luck in your drafts!


Saturday, August 15, 2020

Someone to draft on all 32 teams: 2020 edition

Last July I had this new idea for an article where I looked at all 32 teams and tried to find one "value" guy on each squad who I like the most based on his current ADP (Average Draft Position - using FantasyPros as my reference for half PPR leagues).  That doesn't mean I'd draft someone like Marquise Brown over Lamar Jackson.  After that spectacular season, Lamar is going in the second round of drafts this year.  But I'd much rather wait on QB and then get Lamar's top WR a few rounds later.  I think Marquise Brown has huge breakout potential this year, and my wife is a Ravens fan.  If their game is televised, we're watching it.  So why not try to draft a guy on the Ravens who I can root for all year?  I'm likely not going to draft anyone on the Washington TBDs!
Ravens' Lamar Jackson compares Marquise Brown to Julio Jones ...

OK, so you get the idea.  I won't list every player for every team, but I'll list a few and I'll talk about one guy who I like the most at his draft price from each team.  I'll put the ADP in parentheses (as of this post - it'll change!) and put each guy I like in bold/italics. Let's get to it!

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary (59)
Stefon Diggs (62)
Josh Allen (67)
John Brown (92)
Bills D (112)
Zack Moss (146)

Devin Singletary, Josh Allen, and John Brown all have current ADPs that are about 100 spots higher than their ADPs last season.  That's impressive.  But with the Bills letting Frank Gore walk and investing a 3rd round pick on a running back for the second straight year, I'm liking Zack Moss at his late round value.  Sure, Josh Allen will still vulture some goal line carries himself.  But Moss broke all kinds of records at Utah, and he could end up in a fairly even timeshare with Singletary.  I'd much rather draft the rookie in the later rounds versus investing my 5th round pick on Singletary.

Miami Dolphins
Devante Parker (50)
Jordan Howard (88)
Matt Breida (90)
Mike Gesicki (123)
Preston Williams (163)
Tua Tagovailoa (192)

Last year I pegged DeVante Parker as a great last round flier (his ADP was around 192!).  But with his ADP now around 50, I'd much rather draft a running back in Miami this year.  But which one?  Both Howard and Breida's ADPs are right around 90 right now, but I tend to believe more in Howard.  While Breida flashed at times in San Francisco, it concerns me that he may have been more of a product of Kyle Shannahan's system.  That dude has made terrible running backs look good in his coaching career.  But Jordan Howard was productive in Chicago and Philly.  I think he can do it again in Miami and be more of that workhorse back with Breida sprinkled in.  We'll see how it all shakes out, but if I had to pick one I'd roll with Howard.

New England Patriots
Julian Edelman (82)
Sony Michel (84)
James White (98)
Patriots D (132)
Cam Newton (168)
N'Keal Harry (189)
Damien Harris (208)

Basically all of the Patriots have lower ADPs than they did last year, so you can actually find value in a lot of places this season.  Julian Edelman's ADP was around 40 this time last year, so he's certainly a value in the 80s.  But with Brady gone, it's hard to trust the connection with a new quarterback.  But that new quarterback is actually who I'd be drafting at his ADP.  Cam Newton used to be a top-5 fantasy quarterback with regular frequency, and he can get back in that top tier of QBs if he's healthy.  Based on everything I've seen this offseason, he is.  He's a late round QB I'll be targeting in drafts because he's shown he has the ability to produce in fantasy, and his draft price is SO low.Cam Newton pinching himself over his opportunity to play for the ...

New York Jets
Le'Veon Bell (45)
Jamison Crowder (135)
Sam Darnold (150)
Breshad Perriman (173)
Denzel Mims (200)
Chris Herndon (202)

Le'Veon Bell was a consensus 1st round fantasy pick last season, and he kinda crapped the bed.  He ended up as the #16 fantasy RB in PPR leagues and outside of the top-20 in standard scoring.  But the Jets have improved their offensive line, and the addition of Frank Gore doesn't scare me one bit.  I realize Adam Gase isn't the biggest fan of Bell, but I also don't think he's just not going to play the guy.  I think Le'Veon could have a bounce back season...and would it really surprise anyone if he finished as a top-10 RB again?  Outside of his rookie year and the year he injured his knee, he was a top-3 fantasy RB every other year in Pittsburgh.  The guy can produce.  He could do it again.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson (19)
Mark Andrews (35)
Mark Ingram (46)
Marquise Brown (80)
J.K. Dobbins (93)
Ravens Defense (104)

I talked up Lamar Jackson a ton last year, but I actually picked Mark Andrews in this spot last year (he had an ADP of 185!).  Not only am I a late round QB guy, but I'm starting to become a late round TE guy too.  This year it's really hard to find value in Baltimore's offense because everyone expects there to be a lot of fantasy production here.  But one guy who still flies off the page to me in the middle rounds is Marquise Brown.  It may seem like a high price tag for a rookie who barely finished as a top-50 WR in PPR formats, but this dude is electric.  He was also coming off a serious foot injury last season.  Assuming he's fully healthy in Year 2 with Lamar, we could be looking at the next Tyreek Hill here.  That's an exciting proposition in the middle rounds.

Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon (9)
A.J. Green (68)
Tyler Boyd (76)
Joe Burrow (125)
Tee Higgins (174)
John Ross (203)

A.J. Green felt like a value to me in the 3rd round last year, but of course he got hurt and missed the season.  This year he's going in the 5th round, so he's an even bigger value to me...if healthy.  But that health scares me a bit.  Meanwhile, you could get Tyler Boyd a round later, and he's a guy who played all 16 games last year and is coming off back-to-back 1000 yard seasons.  If Joe Burrow is an upgrade to Andy Dalton (I think he is), Boyd could improve on last year.  He should continue to see a ton of targets in the slot, and Boyd is the best value to me at receiver in this offense.

Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb (12)
Odell Beckham, Jr. (27)
Kareem Hunt (73)
Jarvis Landry (74)
Austin Hooper (89)
Baker Mayfield (121)

I like Odell at his draft position in 2020 for the same reason I like Le'Veon Bell.  This is another guy with elite talent who was drafted around the round one/two turn last year.  Now you can get him in a full round later, so he has a bit of a discount.  I think Beckham was playing hurt last season, and we all know he was dealing with Freddie Kitchens holding back him and the entire team.  It's possible the new coaching staff will run the ball more, but Beckham is a playmaker who wants the ball.  With Landry possibly coming back slowly from injury at the beginning of the year, I think Baker will get the ball to Odell early and often.  There aren't many guys who you can draft in the third round who have a legit chance to finish as THE #1 fantasy WR.

Pittsburgh Steelers
JuJu Smith-Schuster (31)
James Conner (44)
Steelers D (105)
Diontae Johnson (109)
Ben Roethlisberger (118) 
Eric Ebron (166)
James Washington (215)
Anthony McFarland, Jr. (236)

James Conner had an ADP of 10 last year, and JuJu's was 17.  So both guys are certainly values this season versus last.  I like both where they're going in drafts right now, but if I had to pick one I think I'd go with Conner.  As long as he doesn't opt out on the season (remember Conner is a cancer survivor), he'll be a true workhorse running back for what should be an improved offense with Ben back this year.
Steelers' James Conner on cancer: Doctors said he had a week left

AFC South

Houston Texans

David Johnson (53)
Deshaun Watson (58)
Will Fuller (85)
Brandin Cooks (91)
Duke Johnson (154)
Kenny Stills (221)
Randall Cobb (227)

With DeAndre Hopkins gone, I think Cooks and Fuller are both potential values because one of these guys could end up as a top-12 fantasy WR this year.  Both have a rough injury history, but I feel like Cooks is one concussion away from missing an entire season.  If Fuller is healthy for an entire season, he feels like the guy who could really go off in a contract year.  I think he's definitely worth a shot in the middle rounds.  And if both Cooks and Fuller are available at the turn in a round that makes sense (I have the #12 pick in a 12-team league), I might just snag both!

Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor (41)
T.Y. Hilton (63)
Marlon Mack (100)
Philip Rivers (152)
Jack Doyle (177)
Michael Pittman, Jr. (182)
Nyheim Hines (187)
Parris Campbell (212)

This was tough because I really wanted to pick Jonathan Taylor here, but I'm not sure about his value at an ADP of 41.  If Marlon Mack didn't exist in Indy, Taylor would be a first round fantasy pick.  But Mack does exist.  That has me looking at receivers other than T.Y. Hilton as values with a new QB for the Colts.  Philip Rivers loved throwing to his tight ends and slot receiver with the Chargers (Keenan Allen ran about 45% of his routes in the slot last year).  T.Y. Hilton runs less than 20% of his routes in the slot, but Parris Campbell ran nearly 40% of his snaps in the slot last season.  I realize it's a small sample size, but Campbell feels like the slot receiver for the Colts and Pittman will certainly play on the outside.  We'll see how this shakes out in training camp, but a healthy Parris Campbell at the end of your draft could be a steal in this slot role with Rivers.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette (37)
D.J. Chark (56)
Gardner Minshew II (171)
Dede Westbrook (197)
Ryquell Armstead (224)
Laviska Shenault, Jr. (238)
Chris Thompson (258)

D.J. Chark had an ADP of 291 last season.  Let that sink in.  This year you can draft a different rookie Jag WR well after pick 200, and I think Laviska Shenault is worth a dart throw.  The Jags should be playing from behind in most games, so Minshew could be forced to throw a lot.  Chark and Westbrook are certainly locked in at the WR position, but Shenault could carve out a role as well.  And at pick #238, why not?  I'm not that interested in many others at their ADP.

Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry (6)
A.J. Brown (36)
Ryan Tannehill (131)
Jonnu Smith (138)
Corey Davis (205)
Darrynton Evans (226)

Remember when I said D.J. Chark had an ADP of 291?  A.J. Brown's was 223 last year.  Yeah, the rookie wideouts did pretty well in 2019.  If I'm drafting a Titan this year though, it has to be Jonnu Smith.  He's currently being taken as the TE16, and that's basically where he finished last year.  I feel like he could easily end up as a top-12 fantasy TE this year with Delanie Walker completely out of the picture.  Jonnu showed in the playoffs against Baltimore that he can make big plays.  Assuming his targets go up in the 60-70 range, a final stat line of 600 yards and 5 touchdowns seems reasonable.
Jonnu Smith

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Melvin Gordon (38)
Courtland Sutton (43)
Phillip Lindsay (94)
Jerry Jeudy (107)
Noah Fant (124)
Drew Lock (161)

For a second year in a row, I probably won't end up with any Broncos on my fantasy teams this year.  Last year I highlighted their defense as a value here because I just didn't want any of the position players at their ADP.  Courtland Sutton ended up being a nice value, but I'm not sure he is anymore at an ADP of 64.  I'd much rather wait a few rounds and take a shot on Jerry Jeudy, who is going outside of the top-100.

Kansas City Chiefs
Tyreek Hill (10)
Travis Kelce (14)
Patrick Mahomes (17)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25)
Mecole Hardman (137)
Sammy Watkins (148)

It's hard to find value with a team like this because everyone wants a piece of Kansas City's offense.  But if CEH's ADP is still outside of the first round, he's the obvious value to me.  Louis Riddick of ESPN tweeted the rookie should be THE #1 overall pick in fantasy drafts this year.  While that's a bit bold for me, it does highlight his upside in arguably the best offense in the NFL.  There's no way I'd let him slip outside of Round 1, and I would imagine his ADP will jump 15 or so spots in the coming weeks.

Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs (16)
Darren Waller (51)
Henry Ruggs III (127)
Jason Witten (162)
Derek Carr (164)
Hunter Renfrow (176)
Tyrell Williams (217)
Bryan Edwards (232)
Jalen Richard (259)

I'm sorry but why is Jason Witten's ADP 162?  He should be undrafted in every single league.  That's insane.  Anyway, I'd certainly draft Josh Jacobs at the end of the first round of my fantasy draft, but otherwise I'm not sure I want a piece of this offense in 2020.  I'm just not sure what it's going to look like, but I do expect the Raiders to be playing from behind in a lot of games this year.  That makes me think Jalen Richard will get plenty of work late in games and will be heavily involved in the passing game/hurry up offense.  He won't be a huge producer, but in deeper PPR leagues he could be a nice value with your last pick.

Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler (22)
Keenan Allen (49)
Hunter Henry (66)
Mike Williams (119)
Justin Jackson (193)
Chargers Defense (230)
Joshua Kelley (247)
Tyrod Taylor (249)

With Philip Rivers now in Indy, there's value to be had in this offense now.  But where will that value be with the receivers?  While that's a bit unclear to me, I do think Justin Jackson will be in a timeshare with Austin Ekeler.  Don't get me wrong, Ekeler is very good and well deserving of his ADP.  But if Jackson is getting 30-40% of the snaps and most of the carries (which is possible), it seems crazy that he's going so late.  I think this is an easy way to get a piece of this offense, and Jackson would be an easy drop after a couple of weeks if he's not as involved as I think he will be.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott (3)
Amari Cooper (30)
Dak Prescott (47)
Michael Gallup (72)
CeeDee Lamb (106)
Tony Pollard (144)
Blake Jarwin (190)

I highlighted Michael Gallup in this article last year, and he was a big value at his July ADP of 165.  Now with an ADP of 72 he's less of a value but still a better value than Amari Cooper at his price.  CeeDee Lamb could end up being a value outside of the top-100, but if you're targeting late round tight ends, I think Blake Jarwin makes a lot of sense.  Jason Witten has been put out to pasture in Las Vegas, but I think Dak will still target his tight ends.  Last season, Witten had 83 targets and Jarwin had 41.  With Witten gone, I don't see someone like Dalton Schultz gaining a big target share in this offense.  I think that means Jarwin ends up with 80+ targets, which is crazy for a guy currently being drafted outside of the top-20 tight ends.

New York Giants
Saquon Barkley (2)
Evan Engram (77)
Darius Slayton (101)
Sterling Shepard (129)
Daniel Jones (141)
Golden Tate (147)

If I had to pick a value for the Giants, give me the cheapest receiver because I could really see any of these guys end up as the best WR for their team this year.  Golden Tate missed all of September last year and still had 85 targets in just 11 games.  He had 5 touchdowns in his final 6 games, and I feel like he still has plenty left in the tank.  If anything I think his ADP might fall into even later rounds as the season approaches, so I think he'll continue to be the best value on this team and I'll draft a ton of him in the later rounds.
New York Giants' Golden Tate named one of NFL's best slot receivers

Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders (23)
Zach Ertz (40)
Carson Wentz (87)
Jalen Reagor (139)
Alshon Jeffery (142)
Dallas Goedert (143)
DeSean Jackson (167)
Boston Scott (178)

Well this is an easy one for me.  Alshon is likely to start the season on the PUP list, so a healthy DeSean Jackson should be a strong play while he's healthy.  Assuming rookie Jalen Reagor takes some time to get up to speed in the NFL, DJax should be Carson Wentz's top target outside of the tight ends.  The Eagles face Washington and Cincinnati in the first 3 weeks, and I expect you'll want to start DeSean in both of those games.  And if he can somehow stay healthy this year, you'll end up playing him down the stretch too if Alshon can't get on the field.

Washington Redskins
Terry McLaurin (61)
Adrian Peterson (151)
Antonio Gibson (194)
Dwayne Haskins (274)
Steven Sims (310)

I'll hold off on highlighting Antonio Gibson here because his ADP is likely to climb nearly 100 spots in the coming weeks.  If it DOESN'T, then he's an obvious value with huge upside in the later rounds.  But with Kelvin Harmon tearing his ACL, Steven Sims could be in line for a big target share in this offense.  He had 36 targets the last 4 weeks of the 2019 season.  If those targets continue into 2020, Sims could be an amazing value.  He's basically undrafted in all fantasy leagues right now and nearly going outside the top-100 WRs!

NFC North

Chicago Bears

Allen Robinson (28)
David Montgomery (64)
Tarik Cohen (115)
Bears Defense (130)
Anthony Miller (156)
Jimmy Graham (266)

The easiest way to find value in this offense is to look at Tarik Cohen's ADP last season versus this season (61 vs 115).  That's right.  Tarik was being drafted in the 6th round of fantasy drafts last year, but now you can get him in the 9th or 10th.  He's still the same electric player he's always been.  Chicago's offense was just pretty terrible last year.  Nick Foles could inject some life into this team, and if he doesn't then maybe Trubisky will improve.  Who knows?  While I don't expect Tarik Cohen to finish as a top-12 PPR running back like he did in 2018, he certainly has that capability.  He's being drafted around the RB40 right now, and he feels more like a top-30 RB to me.

Detroit Lions
Kenny Golladay (24)
D'Andre Swift (65)
Marvin Jones, Jr. (97)
Matthew Stafford (99)
Kerryon Johnson (103)
T.J. Hockenson (128)

I guess I'm doubling down on Marvin Jones being a value because I highlighted him here last year as well.  The guy was a top-5 fantasy WR in 2017, and he always seems to be on a "good pace" until an injury cuts his season short.  Well, when he is healthy he provides consistent production, and he finished as a top-30 WR in PPR formats last year even though he missed 3 games and only had Stafford throwing to him half the season.  If he and his QB are both healthy, Marvin could return huge value at this draft position.

Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams (8)
Aaron Jones (20)
Aaron Rodgers (86)
A.J. Dillon (180)
Jamaal Williams (198)
Allen Lazard (204)
Jace Sternberger (257)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (316)

Last year I highlighted Geronimo Allison as a value in the double-digit rounds, and this year I'm chasing that #2 receiver in Green Bay again.  Will it be Allen Lazard?  With Devin Funchess opting out, I feel like it has to be, right?  Lazard has as good of a chance as anyone, and Aaron Rodgers seems to like him.  That's good enough for me at an ADP outside of the top-200!  You can snag him in the later rounds and cut him after a couple of weeks if he does nothing against the Vikings or Lions.  And if you'd rather take a flyer on MVS, you can get him 100 picks later!
Packers: Allen Lazard can have important role on offense in 2020

Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook (7)
Adam Thielen (32)
Alexander Mattison (122)
Justin Jefferson (133)
Kirk Cousins (155)
Kyle Rudolph (169)
Irv Smith, Jr. (209)

I feel like there's a ton of value here in a rookie stepping into a situation with a solid QB and a ton of vacated targets.  With Stefon Diggs in Buffalo now, all of those targets can't go to Thielen, and I don't think Tajae Sharpe is any kind of special talent.  Justin Jefferson is though, and at an ADP of 133 I'd rather have him over maybe any other rookie WR in this draft class.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones (13)
Todd Gurley (29)
Calvin Ridley (42)
Matt Ryan (78)
Hayden Hurst (114)

Hayden Hurst was a great value a couple of months ago, but his sleeper status is all but gone now.  He's still being drafted outside of the top-10 TEs though, and he could easily be a top-5 fantasy tight end if he can stay healthy.  Austin Hooper is in Cleveland now, and there are virtually no other experienced tight ends behind Hurst on the depth chart.  He could be stepping right into 90+ targets in Dirk Koetter's offense, which just loves to utilize that position.

Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey (1)
D.J. Moore (33)
Robby Anderson (157)
Teddy Bridgewater (172)
Curtis Samuel (175)
Ian Thomas (191)

I talked up Curtis Samuel last year in this spot, but he didn't live up to expectations.  This year he could be an even bigger value as a post-hype sleeper, but I'm actually going to highlight another late round TE here.  Sure there's a new QB and coaching staff in Carolina, but Greg Olsen is gone and Bridgewater is a much better QB than Kyle Allen or anyone else who was throwing the ball in Carolina last year.  Ian Thomas is currently being drafted as the TE26, and he could easily finish as a top-15 tight end in fantasy.

New Orleans Saints
Michael Thomas (4)
Alvin Kamara (5)
Drew Brees (71)
Jared Cook (79)
Emmanuel Sanders (108)
Latavius Murray (117)

I love Alvin Kamara, and I'd gladly take him in the middle of the first round.  But if he deals with injuries again this season, Latavius Murray has shown to be one of the best handcuffs in the whole NFL.  When Kamara missed Weeks 7 & 8 last year, Murray had over 100 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns in EACH game.  Outside of those two games, he didn't do a whole lot.  And I get that.  But especially if I end up with Kamara in any fantasy drafts, I'm handcuffing him with Murray.  And even if I don't have Kamara, Murray is a decent bench stash in the mid to late rounds because he'd be an instant starting RB in fantasy if anything happened to Alvin.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin (18)
Mike Evans (26)
Rob Gronkowski (81)
Tom Brady (83)
Ronald Jones (95)
Ke'Shawn Vaughn (102)
LeSean McCoy (184)
O.J. Howard (188)

Like Marvin Jones, I'm doubling down on another Jones this year.  The Bucs drafted Vaughn this year, and he could surpass Ronald Jones in ADP as the season approaches.  But did you realize Jones is actually younger than Vaughn?  Oh and he has two years of NFL experience (with this offense by the way).  Sure, this will be a bit of a new offense with Tom Brady in Tampa, but I think they'll rely on the veteran and the rookie could take some time to develop.  Bruce Arians has already talked up RoJo as the potential lead back this year, and I'm buying into him well ahead of an ADP in the 90s.  If he ends up with double-digit touchdowns, we'll be talking about how we should've drafted him in the 3rd or 4th round and not the 7th or 8th.
Ronald Jones is catching on quick with Tom Brady

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

DeAndre Hopkins (11)
Kenyan Drake (15)
Kyler Murray (54)
Christian Kirk (113)
Larry Fitzgerald (160)
Chase Edmonds (183)

I highlighted Kyler Murray in this spot last year because he was being drafted outside of the top-100, so that proved to be a solid value.  This year I don't think he's a great value.  He feels like an appropriate value at best.  The guy I want to highlight here is Chase Edmonds.  Kenyan Drake was great last year when he came to Arizona, and I think he can be great this year too.  But with David Johnson gone, there are some carries and targets to go around in that backfield.  I don't think they'll all go to Drake, and if Edmonds is involved he could end up being a decent FLEX option if this offense improves.  And if Drake gets injured, we saw Edmonds shine in this offense at times last year.  He could be a league winner if Drake misses significant time.

Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp (39)
Robert Woods (57)
Cam Akers (69)
Tyler Higbee (70)
Darrell Henderson (111)
Jared Goff (149)
Malcolm Brown (231)
Josh Reynolds (261)
Gerald Everett (278)

I think there's a ton of value to be had with the Rams this year, and I'll likely end up with at least one player from this team in every league because of that value.  It starts near the top with Robert Woods who I have ranked ABOVE Kupp.  I love Woods this year.  At the bottom, Gerald Everett could easily end up with more fantasy points than Tyler Higbee this year.  But the guy I'm targeting is likely going to be Darrell Henderson.  He didn't do a ton in his rookie year, but I think it's possible he has a much bigger role this year with Todd Gurley gone.  Everyone expects Cam Akers to grab the starting job and run with it, but like...what if he doesn't?  Henderson could be an amazing value in the middle rounds, and I'll probably have a lot of shares of him this year.

San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle (21)
Raheem Mostert (60)
Deebo Samuel (75)
Tevin Coleman (120)
Jimmy Garoppolo (136)
Brandon Aiyuk (207)
Jerick McKinnon (214)
Jalen Hurd (308)

Raheem Mostert's ADP is right around where Tevin Coleman's was this time last year, but I'd much rather have Coleman for 2020 at their current ADPs.  Shannahan will play multiple running backs, and Coleman is another late round pick I'm targeting in drafts.
Running back Tevin Coleman of the San Francisco 49ers carries the ...

Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson (34)
Tyler Lockett (48)
Russell Wilson (52)
D.K. Metcalf (55)
Will Dissly (181)
Greg Olsen (185)
Rashaad Penny (201)
Carlos Hyde (210)
Seahawks Defense (253)
Phillip Dorsett (309)

I actually like the top three Seahawks, but I'm not sure about their value.  I feel like they're appropriately priced for the most part.  I could easily see D.K. Metcalf ending up with more fantasy points than Lockett this season, so he's a slightly OK value at 55 I guess.  The real value to me though is way down the list at Carlos Hyde.  Chris Carson is certainly the workhorse RB when healthy, but how sure are we he'll be healthy at the start of the season and/or during the season?  Rashaad Penny could have a hard time coming back this season at all, so Hyde could find himself in line for a ton of touches in this offense.  With an ADP outside of the top-200, he's a great value at the end of drafts.

If you made it through all 32 teams, congratulations.  You did it!  I'll get another preseason article or two out in the next couple of weeks.  Stay tuned!