I said this last year when I wrote this article, and I'll say it again: These are NOT my rankings.
My preseason/draft rankings have things like injury risk, coaching changes, RB committees, and a ton of other things built into them. What I've put together below are my predictions for who could finish the season in the top-12 at each position in a best case scenario with fully healthy seasons (at least for these guys). My position lists below will provide you some additional insight into who I think has major upside and who might be prone to being a bust in 2020. Last year I highlighted guys like Lamar Jackson, Chris Carson, and D.J. Moore as players I liked who not many people were projecting to be top-12 at their positions. I was also really high on Vance McDonald, so of course they don't all work out.
Keep in mind, I'm still more or less going to stick by my rankings when it comes to doing my fantasy drafts. I suggest you do the same. But these predictions are fun, and it's interesting to see what turns out to be right when the season ends. Pay extra attention to my bold picks sprinkled throughout, and let's get to it!
Deshaun Watson
Patrick Mahomes
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
Russell Wilson
Matt Ryan
Dak Prescott
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen
Daniel Jones
Cam Newton
Jared Goff
Right away you'll notice I have Watson as my #1 overall fantasy QB this season. Does that mean I'm drafting him ahead of Mahomes and Lamar? Hell no. But it does mean I'm ranking him over guys like Dak and Kyler, and I actually think it's the rushing yards/TDs that could get Deshaun to the top spot in a year when no one expects it.
You'll also notice old guys like Rodgers, Brady, and Brees aren't on my list. Sure, all of them could sneak into the top-12, but I could easily see all of them around the QB15 as well. Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford could make this list too, but both guys have dealt with various injuries in recent years and that factored into me leaving them off the list.
If you look at my picks in bold toward the end of the top-12, you'll notice I'd rather take a shot that someone like Cam Newton or even Joe Burrow cracks this list. The rushing appeal of both guys should provide a good floor, and Burrow is especially intriguing since there's an unknown factor to the rookie. I don't see why he couldn't do the same thing Kyler Murray did last year. I also think Jared Goff could bounce back in a high volume pass offense and could make this list by end of season, and Daniel Jones has the ability to make that leap into the top-12 as well.
My preseason top-12 RBs
Ezekiel Elliott
Saquon Barkley
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry
James Conner
Miles Sanders
Kenyan Drake
Ronald Jones
Dalvin Cook
Jonathan Taylor
Austin Ekeler
A lot of people think McCaffrey will repeat as the #1 RB and overall player this year, but that happens so rarely that I'm not going to project it to happen. He has a new QB and coaching staff to navigate, so there are certainly some question marks for him even though he's obviously a special talent. I think Zeke has a great shot at the top spot, and I always like to put a rookie in my top-12. This year I put two on my list because in addition to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, I like Jonathan Taylor a lot too. I thought he was the best RB prospect in this draft, and he landed in a spot with arguably the best run blocking offensive line. You'll also notice James Conner and Ronald Jones in my top-10. If Conner stays healthy for 15 or 16 games, I actually think he's a lock to be on this list (but health is the issue). As for RoJo, he's certainly a wild card. With Tom Brady in Tampa and Bruce Arians saying Jones will be the lead back, it's certainly possible he gets the workload and touchdowns to end up on this list.
Others who I considered but just missed my projected top-12: Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones. Look, any of these guys could crack this list but I wanted to throw in some longer shots and I couldn't have everyone in my top-12, now could I? I also left off Alvin Kamara who now looks like a potential holdout in New Orleans.
My preseason top-12 WRs
Davante Adams
Michael Thomas
Adam Thielen
Tyreek Hill
Will Fuller
Julio Jones
Robert Woods
Odell Beckham, Jr.
D.J. Moore
DeAndre Hopkins
Marquise Brown
Kenny Golladay
You'll notice a theme here because I'm not projecting guys to repeat as the #1 at their position. If anyone is going to overtake the single season reception record holder, it's Adams. I'm not saying he'll break that record, but he could dominate @cantguardmike in the touchdown department and finish as the #1 fantasy WR. I also like Adam Thielen to finish highly if he can stay healthy all year. If that happens, I think he'll lead the league in targets (even in a run-heavy offense). In this perfect world with no injuries, I also project Will Fuller as a top-5 fantasy WR and Marquise Brown in my top-12. I like both of these guys a lot and hope to get a lot of shares of them in the middle rounds. I also highlighted Robert Woods, who I have ranked higher than Kupp and would have no problem drafting him as my first WR if I go RB-heavy early in a draft.
My preseason top-12 TEs
George Kittle
Mark Andrews
Travis Kelce
Hayden Hurst
Zach Ertz
Jonnu Smith
Darren Waller
Blake Jarwin
Hunter Henry
Chris Herndon
Ian Thomas
Jack Doyle
I really like Jonnu and Jarwin if you're doing the late-round tight end strategy. In fact, you could probably select both at the end of your draft and hope one of them hits. If you miss out on the Kelce/Kittle tier and then the Andrews/Ertz tier, I'd let other people draft the likes of Hunter Henry and Evan Engram and shoot for Hayden Hurst after a couple of those guys come off the board. Hopefully he's not this year's Vance McDonald for me, as I think he could step into the vacated Austin Hooper role and easily be a top-5 fantasy TE. Chris Herndon, Ian Thomas, and Jack Doyle also made the list because why not? It's tight end. If you can get to 500 yards and 5 touchdowns, you can make this list.
That's probably a wrap for the preseason articles. I'll keep updating my rankings in my previous post before the season kicks off, and I'll post my Week 1 rankings in a week or so!
Cheers,
Bart