Wednesday, October 25, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

Image result for jameis winstonWith Deshaun Watson on a bye and Jameis Winston facing a tough Buffalo defense in Week 7, I actually started Brett Hundley against the Saints in my Yahoo league (oops!).  While that was definitely not the right call, ultimately it didn't matter in my matchup because my opponent had Zeke and would've crushed me no matter what.  But this week it could matter!  With Jameis lighting up the Bills, I'm back to my dilemma of Watson versus Winston in Week 8.  And while I certainly could have worse problems than having two good QBs on my fantasy team, it'll be a tough choice the rest of the season as long as both guys stay healthy.  Bigger problems would be things like injuries and bye weeks, and the big byes are finally here.  Remember there are 6 teams on a bye this week AND next week, so if you're not at least looking a little bit ahead, you probably should be.

Let's get to the rankings!

BYE: Arizona, Green Bay, Jacksonville, LA Rams, NY Giants, Tennessee 

1.Carson Wentz 
2.Tom Brady  
3.Russell Wilson     
4.Dak Prescott
5.Drew Brees  
6.Kirk Cousins  
7.Cam Newton  
8.Tyrod Taylor
9.Andy Dalton
10.DeShaun Watson
11.Jameis Winston 
12.Alex Smith 
13.Matt Ryan 
14.Derek Carr 
15.Philip Rivers

Last week I was high on Carson Wentz (ESPN #8, ME #3) in part because he's a top-5 fantasy QB this season (so, like, DUH!), but also because the Redskins were likely without two starting corners on MNF.  While Breeland actually played, Norman sat again with a rib injury, and Wentz finished as the #1 fantasy QB in Week 7.  This week he gets the 49ers at home, and I have him in my top spot.  If you own Wentz, I don't see how you could even start Brady or Brees over him right now.

I was down on Matt Ryan (ESPN #3, ME #8) even though he was facing a Patriots team giving up the most fantasy points to QBs this season.  I just didn't trust Ryan as a top-5 fantasy QB because he hadn't done it yet this year.  And you know what?  He still hasn't!  Ryan threw just one TD pass (for the 5th time in 6 games this season), and even that was close to being intercepted if it weren't for Julio ripping it away from the defender.  Matty Ice barely finished inside the top-15 fantasy QBs, and he's just not playing at the same level he was last year.  I don't know why the ESPN experts continue to rank him as a top-10 option, but of course they are.  Not me though!

Image result for andy daltonI'm high on: Andy Dalton (ESPN #13, ME #9)
One guy who is in my top-10 this week but not ESPN's is the Red Rifle.  Dalton hasn't been great this year, but his splits against good/bad defenses is pretty obvious.  He struggled the last couple of weeks against Buffalo and Pittsburgh, but he torched Cleveland and had a pair of TDs in Green Bay.  This week he faces the Colts at home, and Indy is giving up top-10 numbers to opposing QBs this year.  I think Andy will throw for close to 300 yards and have multiple touchdowns in this game.  I'm playing against A.J. Green this week, so I'm just hoping all of those TDs don't go to him.

I'm down on: Philip Rivers (ESPN #9, ME #15
Don't look now, but the Patriots seem to be getting better on the defensive side of the ball.  They struggled mightily in Weeks 1-4, but none of their last 3 opponents have scored more than 17 points against them.  Of course that also includes the Falcons only scoring 7 points in Foxboro last week.  I think Rivers could have a hard time finding the end zone in New England, and I don't trust him as a top-10 play this week.

1.Le'Veon Bell   
2.Ezekiel Elliott 
3.LeSean McCoy
4.Mark Ingram  
5.Melvin Gordon   
6.Kareem Hunt 
7.Devonta Freeman 
8.Jordan Howard 
9.Jay Ajayi  
10.Doug Martin
11.Joe Mixon  
12.Lamar Miller   
13.Carlos Hyde 
14.Alvin Kamara 
15.C.J. Anderson
16.Chris Thompson   
17.Christian McCaffer 
18.LeGarrette Blount  
19.Ameer Adbullah 
20.Jerrick McKinnon
21.Tevin Coleman 
22.Javorius Allen  
23.Dion Lewis  
24.Jalen Richard  
25.Wendell Smallwood
26.Duke Johnson    
27.Bilal Powell  
28.Latavius Murray
29.DeAndre Washington  
30.Matt Forte 
31.Rob Kelley 
32.Frank Gore
33.Isaiah Crowell 
34.James White 
35.Tarik Cohen
Is it time to be done with Jonathan Stewart?  I sure think so, but I guess the Panthers aren't quite convinced just yet.  Last week I didn't even rank him (ESPN #29, ME NOT RANKED), and he finished with fewer than 5 fantasy points for the 4th game in a row.  He was outside of the top-35 against the Bears, and I think he's droppable in a 12-team league or smaller.  I was high on Orleans Darkwa (ESPN #34, ME #21), who had 13+ fantasy points in each of his previous two games, but that mini streak ended in Week 7.  The Giants played from behind in this game and Darkwa didn't get much of anything going.  In fact, he finished with the exact same amount of fantasy points as Jonathan Stewart (ironically enough).

I'm high on: Jalen Richard (ESPN #36, ME #24)
Image result for jalen richardWith Marshawn Lynch serving his one game suspension this week, the Raiders will likely use an even timeshare between Richard and Washington.  However, I have a feeling the game flow could dictate more passing downs for Oakland, which could mean more snaps for Richard.  Either way, I like him way more than the ESPN experts, and I like Richard to have a better game than Washington this week.
I'm down on: Jonathan Stewart...again (ESPN #28, ME NOT RANKED)
I'm not really sure what about his performance last week (or any week really) caused the ESPN experts to keep Stewart where he was in the rankings.  You know what though?  I kept him at the same spot in my rankings too, which is not in them!  To quote Forrest Gump: "...and that's all I have to say about that."

1.A.J. Green 
2.Antonio Brown   
3.Julio Jones    
4.Mike Evans
5.Dez Bryant 
6.Michael Thomas  
7.Doug Baldwin
8.Kelvin Benjamin
9.DeAndre Hopkins
10.Michael Crabtree  
11.Keenan Allen
12.Chris Hogan
13.Jarvis Landry
14.Demaryius Thomas  
15.Tyreek Hill 
16.Amari Cooper  
17.Nelson Agholor
18.Adam Thielen
19.Alshon Jeffery
20.Brandin Cooks
21.T.Y. Hilton  
22.Pierre Garcon
23.DeSean Jackson 
24.Ted Ginn 
25.Devin Funchess  
26.Marvin Jones
27.Kenny Stills
28.Will Fuller V 
29.Robby Anderson 
30.Mohamed Sanu 
31.Jermaine Kearse  
32.JuJu Smith-Schuster
33.Bennie Fowler
34.Jordan Matthews
35.Josh Doctson  

Last week I was high on Nelson Agholor again versus the ESPN experts, but I talked up Bennie Fowler instead.  I guess I should've stuck with Agholor because he found the endzone for the third straight game and finished with double-digit fantasy points.  By the way, ESPN still has Agholor ranked too low (consensus NPPR ranking of 29th!).  He's getting up near WR1 territory for me, but the experts seem to think that Alshon is somehow a way better fantasy player.  Maybe they should check the scoreboard.

As for Fowler (ESPN NOT RANKED, ME #30), he nearly finished outside of the top-40.  Even with Emmanuel Sanders out, Fowler only had 5 targets.  And while he caught all 5 of them for 45 yards (his second-highest total of the season), he still wasn't a great option in Week 7.  He still makes my top-35 while Sanders sits, but I don't feel great about him the way the Broncos played last week. 

Image result for ted ginnI was down on Randall Cobb (ESPN #35, ME NOT RANKED), who was averaging 4 targets/game in his previous three contests and has less than 50 yards in every game since Week 2.  I was hoping to be pleasantly surprised with Hundley, but not so much with Cobb.  Neither did much of anything, but Cobb finished with just 2 catches for 15 yards and well outside of the top-50 WRs in Week 7. 

I'm high on: Ted Ginn (ESPN #33, ME #24)
Willie Snead is still working his way back from a hamstring injury, and he was inactive last week against Green Bay.  If he sits again, I'd probably have Ginn even higher than this.  As it is, I think Brees likely has built some trust here and Ginn is always a big play away from a solid fantasy day.  At home against the Bears secondary seems like as good a spot as any for Ginn to score a touchdown.

I'm down on: Brandin Cooks (ESPN #10, ME #20)
This is really going against the grain, as not just ESPN but most experts have Cooks as a top-10 play this week against the Chargers.  But I'm a little concerned because I feel like Cooks will be shadowed by Casey Hayward all day, and he has shut down some good receivers this year.  Just ask Demaryius Thomas, who was held to two catches for 9 yards last week.  I still like Chris Hogan better than Cooks, and I have him ranked higher (he's found the endzone in twice as many games).  You're probably not sitting Brandin Cooks in any league, and I still have him as a startable player in Week 8.  I just have him in the WR2 territory rather than WR1.

1.Rob Gronkowski 
2.Zach Ertz
3.Travis Kelce
4.Jimmy Graha
5.Jordan Reed    
6.Hunter Henry 
7.Kyle Rudolph 
8.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins 
9.Cameron Brate
10.Jason Witten
11.Tyler Kroft
12.Jared Cook

My tight end rankings were more or less the same as ESPN's last week, so I didn't have anyone to call out.  This week my rankings are nearly IDENTICAL, so we'll skip this position and keep moving along to the defenses.


Last week I was high on the Jets (ESPN #20, ME #10) and down on the Ravens (ESPN #7, ME NOT RANKED).  The Jets were looking pretty good until Jay Cutler ran out of cigarettes and was forced to leave the game.  I'm kidding of course...pretty sure he just threw a temper tantrum and got benched.  Sure, let's go with that.  Either way, Matt Moore came in and led the Dolphins to a 4th quarter comeback.  Had Cutler stayed in, I guarantee the Jets would've been a top-10 defense and won the game.  Thanks for ruining my pick, Jay!  The Jets still finished as the 16th-best fantasy defense, so they got you some points.  I'm not sure I'd trust them against Atlanta this week though, as the Falcons will likely be playing angry after getting embarrassed in Foxboro last Sunday night.

As for Baltimore, they gave up 24 points to the Vikings, had zero sacks and forced just one turnover.  They finished as one of the worst fantasy defenses in Week 7, so I nailed that one.  Matt Moore is starting tomorrow night, so the Ravens are back in my rankings but not as high as they would be if Cutler was still the starter.  You just know Smokin' Jay is good for a couple of picks and plenty of sacks, but Moore is definitely a better "game manager".  Still, Moore is being thrown in as the starter on a short week, so you have to like the Ravens D in the Thursday nighter.

I'm high on: New Orleans Saints (ESPN #8, ME #2)
This unit is usually thought of as a pushover, and in Weeks 1 & 2 they looked like it.  But since then they've looked much better on the defensive side of the ball.  And while the Lions scored 38 on them a couple of weeks ago, most of that came in the last 20 minutes of the game with the Saints holding a huge lead (and two of those TDs weren't against the defense).  Otherwise, New Orleans has held the Panthers, Dolphins, and Packers to 13, 0, and 17 points respectively.  They've had 8 interceptions in their last 4 games, and this week they face Mitchell Trubisky.  Something tells me the rookie will be good for a pick 6 in this game.  Dial up the Saints D at home, baby!

I'm down on: Houston Texans (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED)
I only ranked 10 defenses this week because it just didn't feel right ranking a team like the Broncos at Arrowhead or even the Falcons in New York against a surprisingly decent Jets squad.  But when I narrowed down my rankings, I didn't even consider the Texans in Seattle.  The Seahawks are averaging over 28 points per game in their last four, and the Texans have given up a ton of points to good teams like the Chiefs and Patriots this year.  Houston is coming off their bye, but they're still dealing with major injuries on defense.  I think they'll finish in the bottom 10 fantasy defenses this week.

Image result for texans defense injuries

Good luck to everyone in Week 8!  
(Except you, Carl...)


Wednesday, October 18, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

Image result for aaron rodgers injuryI feel like every week I start this thing off with a brutal injury, and this week is no different.  In case you missed it, Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in the first quarter against the Vikings on Sunday.  It's going to require surgery, which means he could be done for the season.  It also means Brett Hundley will get the start on Sunday for the Packers...and also for my fantasy team: MakeDemaryiusGr8Agn.

I'm actually in a bit of a tough spot this week because DeShaun Watson is on a bye and Jameis Winston might miss his game due to a shoulder injury.  Even if Jameis does play, it'd be against a tough Buffalo defense giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs.  So I actually picked Hundley off the waiver wire in my league, and I'll probably be starting him on Sunday.  Our waiver wire is super thin right now, and all of my top-15 QBs below are on rosters.  But I'd have Hundley right around 16 or 17, so we'll see what happens!

There are only two teams with a bye this week, but then Weeks 8 and 9 are rough (6 teams off each week).  If you haven't already, you should start looking ahead a little bit to plan for your byes.  I guarantee one or both of those weeks is going to impact your fantasy team.

But enough talk.  Let's do the rankings!

BYE: Detroit and Houston

1.Tom Brady           
2.Dak Prescott
3.Carson Wentz 
4.Drew Brees   
5.Cam Newton  
6.Kirk Cousins
7.Russell Wilson   
8.Matt Ryan
9.Marcus Mariota
10.Alex Smith
11.Carson Palmer
12.Derek Carr 
13.Jared Goff  
14.Tyrod Taylor
15.Philip Rivers  

Last week I was high on Jacoby Brissett (ESPN #19, ME #14), who was facing the Titans on Monday Night Football.  He finished as the #13 fantasy QB, and he could've easily been in the top-10 if Moncrief didn't drop an easy TD in the first half.  This week, Jacoby is out of my top-15 though.  He's facing a Jags team giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, so keep him out of your lineup.

I was down on Matthew Stafford (ESPN #6, ME #13) in New Orleans, where I thought he might struggle.  He had a terrible game in real life, throwing 3 interceptions and losing 2 fumbles in the loss.  However, he still threw 50 times for over 300 yards and had 2 touchdowns.  He finished as the #8 fantasy QB in my league, but it's possible he finished outside of the top-10 if your league penalizes players more for turnovers.

Image result for carson wentzI'm high on: Carson Wentz (ESPN #8, ME #3)
ESPN barely ranked Wentz in their top-10, but I think he'll have a big week against my Redskins on Monday night.  Washington will be without Josh Norman, and Bashaud Breeland could be out as well.  Some of our young corners stepped up against the 49ers, but that was mostly against a rookie QB thrust into the game after Hoyer did nothing in the first quarter.  It also wasn't against the caliber of WRs and TEs that Philly possesses.  Wentz is a top-5 fantasy QB through 6 games, and he's thrown for 7 TDs in his last two.  He threw for over 300 yards and a pair of TDs at FedEx Field in Week 1, and I think he'll do even better than that this time around.  I just hope Cousins can also put up big numbers to keep Washington in the game.

I'm down on: Matt Ryan (ESPN #3, ME #8
It looks like I have Wentz and Ryan as mirrored ranks versus the experts this week, but I just have a hard time putting Matty Ice that highly right now.  He's currently outside of the top-25 fantasy QBs and has thrown more than 1 TD pass in a game just once this season.  He hasn't scored more than 16 fantasy points in a game since Week 1, and while I realize the Patriots are giving up a ton of points to opposing QBs, I just don't trust this particular one like I did in 2016. 

1.Le'Veon Bell 
2.Leonard Fournette  
3.Kareem Hunt
4.Ezekiel Elliott   
5.Todd Gurley 
6.Melvin Gordon 
7.Devonta Freeman 
8.LeSean McCoy
9.Jay Ajayi  
10.Mark Ingram 
11.Jordan Howard 
12.Adrian Peterson  
13.Carlos Hyde 
14.Jerrick McKinnon
15.Joe Mixon 
16.Doug Martin
17.DeMarco Murray
18.C.J. Anderson 
19.Christian McCaffer
20.Tevin Coleman
21.Orleans Darkwa
22.Alvin Kamara 
23.Marshawn Lynch 
24.LeGarrette Blount 
25.Ty Montgomery
26.Chris Thompson  
27.Duke Johnson
28.Rob Kelley
29.Derrick Henry
30.Javorius Allen
31.Frank Gore
32.Aaron Jones 
33.Isaiah Crowell 
34.Matt Forte
35.Tarik Cohen  
36.James White
37.Wendell Smallwood
38.Marlon Mack 
39.Alex Collins
40.Andre Ellington
My worst call of Week 6 had to be Mark Ingram (ESPN #12, ME #20), who the ESPN experts quickly made an RB1 after the Adrian Peterson trade.  I didn't because I thought the trade was more about the Saints liking Kamara, and I expected this to be more of a 50/50 timeshare right away.  Yeah, not so much.  Mark Ingram had BY FAR his best game of the season, and Kamara only had 10 carries to Ingram's 25.  Ingram was a top-5 fantasy RB, but he actually finished behind Adrian Peterson for the week.  Both RBs have now shot up my rankings, and Kamara stays in the RB2 range.  This trade appears to have worked out for all three guys, at least as far as fantasy goes.

Last week I assumed Ty Montgomery would still be out, so I was really high on Aaron Jones versus the experts (ESPN #38, ME #14).  I did say that even if Montgomery played (which he did), I thought Jones was still FLEX-worthy (top-30).  Well, as I've mentioned already, Aaron Rodgers went down super early in this game and didn't return.  So all bets were pretty much off with any of Green Bay's position players to get fantasy points in this game.  But I will point out that Aaron Jones got more carries, targets, and fantasy points than Ty Montgomery against the Vikings.  The rookie also outsnapped Monty 43-20, so I'll put this near the win column but not quite in it. 

I'm high on: Orleans Darkwa (ESPN #34, ME #21)
The guy has 13+ fantasy points in each of his last two games, and last week that was at Denver!  What more do you want from him?!?  This week he plays Seattle (at home by the way), and of course you'd think this is another tough defense to avoid (yeah, like Denver, right...?).  Well, the Seahawks are actually giving up the 7th most rushing yards/game.  They just haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing RBs this year because they've only allowed 2 rushing TDs in 5 games.  I think Darkwa has a good shot at double-digit fantasy points with yardage alone, and if he can find the end zone, he'll end up as a top-10 RB in Week 7.

I'm down on: Jonathan Stewart (ESPN #29, ME NOT RANKED)
Image result for jonathan stewartThe Daily Show hasn't had more than 6 fantasy points in a game since Week 1, and last week he had negative fantasy points against the Eagles.  Speaking of last week, it seemed like Christian McCaffery barely came out of the game in the second half.  I get the feeling the Panthers may have finally realized the rookie is 10 times the playmaker the veteran is, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Stewart have single-digit carries again while McCaffery takes on a bigger workload.  I'd sit Stewart this week, and he may not even be startable the rest of the year if McCaffery takes over and doesn't look back.

1.Antonio Brown   
2.Julio Jones
3.A.J. Green  
4.Mike Evans    
5.Dez Bryant 
6.Michael Thomas  
7.Larry Fitzgerald 
8.Chris Hogan 
9.Michael Crabtree   
10.Kelvin Benjamin
11.Brandin Cooks 
12.Demaryius Thomas   
13.Jordy Nelson
14.Tyreek Hill 
15.Jarvis Landry
16.Keenan Allen  
17.Davante Adams 
18.Alshon Jeffery
19.Doug Baldwin 
20.Pierre Garcon 
21.Adam Thielen 
22.Nelson Agholor 
23.Rishard Matthews
24.Devin Funchess  
25.T.Y. Hilton 
26.DeSean Jackson 
27.Amari Cooper 
28.Danny Amendola
29.John Brown
30.Bennie Fowler
31.Sterling Shepard 
32.Marqise Lee   
33.Mohamed Sanu
34.Terrelle Pryor
35.Paul Richardson
36.Robert Woods
37.Jermaine Kearse  
38.Eric Decker 
39.Jeremy Maclin
40.Cooper Kupp

Two weeks ago, I nailed both of my WR picks versus the ESPN experts, but last week's picks were somewhat incomplete.  You see, I was down on Rishard Matthews (ESPN #26, ME #NOT RANKED) because I assumed Mariota wasn't playing Monday night.  Mariota did play though, so I don't want to take credit for my Matthews pick (even though he finished as the #35 fantasy WR).  He only had 4 targets, but he turned them into 69 yards and would've scored an easy TD if he hadn't barely lost his balance and gone out of bounds on a nice catch and run.  Rishard is back in WR2 territory this week.

I was high on Kelvin Benjamin (ESPN #24, ME #10), who ended up with a season high in targets (13) and receptions (9).  He turned that into 99 receiving yards but didn't find the endzone and finished just outside of the top-20.  Still, he was a solid start and stays in my top-10 for Week 7.  A guy who did find the endzone in that game was Nelson Agholor, who I ranked in the 30s but pointed out that NO ESPN experts had him in their top-50.  He was a top-15 WR in Week 6 and is now a top-12 fantasy WR on the season.  Time to pay attention, ESPN!  He's moving up my list this week, but he's barely in ESPN's top-50.  Uhhhhhh, what?!?  How can you not at least rank this guy as a WR3?  I'm more than 20 spots higher than the ESPN experts on Agholor, but I'll give you a longer shot who I also like this week...

Image result for bennie fowlerI'm high on: Bennie Fowler (ESPN NOT RANKED, ME #30)
Emmanuel Sanders has already been declared out for Sunday's game against the Chargers, so Fowler will be playing a ton alongside Demaryius Thomas.  Bennie had 8 targets last week, and I think he'll see similar volume this week against a defense giving up the 8th most fantasy points to WRs.  And don't worry about this game being on the road.  There will be more Bronco fans in "L.A." than Charger fans, so this is basically a home game.  With Sanders out, I could easily see Fowler having his best yardage total of the year in this one.

I'm down on: Randall Cobb (ESPN #35, ME NOT RANKED)
It may feel like I'm splitting hairs here, but I'm really not.  I didn't even consider Cobb when I was narrowing down my list from about 50 to 40 WRs.  He's averaging 4 targets/game in his last three contests, and he's had less than 50 yards in every game since Week 2.  Now he's lost Aaron Rodgers, and I'm not sure Brett Hundley will necessarily look his way either.  I'd still roll Nelson and Adams out there, but I'd keep expectations low this week for all Green Bay receivers.  I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised with Hundley, but not so much with Cobb.

1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Zach Ertz
3.Travis Kelce
4.Jimmy Graha
5.Cameron Brate
6.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins 
7.Delanie Walker 
8.Evan Engram  
9.Hunter Henry
10.Kyle Rudolph
11.Jordan Reed
12.Austin Hooper 
13.Jack Doyle
14.George Kittle 
15.Ed Dickson

Last week I was high on one tight end and down on the other in the Redskins/49ers game, but the names probably weren't what you expected.  I was down on Jordan Reed (ESPN #4, ME #10), who still hasn't eclipsed the 5 fantasy point mark in any game this season.  He caught just 4 of 5 targets for 37 yards on Sunday.  Meanwhile, George Kittle (ESPN #21, ME #12) had 4 catches on 8 targets (and one pretty bad drop that I recall).  He only turned that into 46 yards, but he ended up better than Reed on the day (which was sort of my point last week in this matchup anyway).  With 17 targets in his last 2 weeks, Kittle is someone to keep on the radar.  It's also somewhat interesting now that C.J. Beathard has been announced as the starting QB for the 49ers because Beathard and Kittle were teammates in college (Iowa).

Image result for jordan reedThis week, my tight end rankings are more or less the same as ESPN's.  I mean, I didn't rank Jason Witten in my top-15 and they did.  He's facing the 49ers, who give up the fewest points to the position.  But ESPN tends to always rank Jason Witten.  I'm also still down on Jordan Reed until he actually produces, but they continue to rank him like he's been a top-5 TE all year (news flash: he hasn't).  We'll see what happens with those guys and others, but maybe I'll talk up a guy or two next week.


Last week my DST rankings were essentially the same as ESPN's, so no comparisons from me.
This week, there aren't a ton of obvious options, but I disagree with the ESPN rankings on a couple...

I'm high on: New York Jets (ESPN #20, ME #10)
I shouldn't have to say anything more than "Jay Cutler", but I will...
Image result for new york jets defense cutlerThe Jets got off to an 0-2 start this season, and everyone thought that 0-16 talk could be legit.  Then they went on to win their next three, and they gave New England everything they wanted last week (albeit in a close loss).  Including the 24 points they gave up to the Patriots, the Jets defense has given up 14.5 PPG in the last 4 weeks.  That ain't too shabby.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins are scoring just 12.2 PPG on offense this season.  TWELVE.  POINT.  TWO.  And also, you know...Jay Cutler, turnover machine.  I say the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS are a top-10 fantasy defense this week and pull out a win in Miami.

I'm down on: Baltimore Ravens (ESPN #7, ME NOT RANKED)
Yes, they're a top-5 fantasy defense on the season.  Yes, they've looked good the last couple of weeks.  But the last couple of weeks, they've faced EJ Manuel and Mitchell Trubisky.  The two weeks before that, they got smoked by the Steelers and Jags.  This is a hard team to figure out, but I'm not trusting them this week in Minnesota.  The Vikings give up the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I think they will control the time of possession and wear down Baltimore's D in this game.

Good luck to everyone in Week 7!  
(Except you, Jimmy...)