QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Tom Brady
3.Dak Prescott
4.Russell Wilson
5.Jameis Winston
6.Carson Wentz
7.Eli Manning
8.Deshaun Watson
9.Matthew Stafford
10.Carson Palmer
11.Cam Newton
12.Philip Rivers
13.Alex Smith
|
14.Ben Roethlisberger
15.Andy Dalton
If you're playing along at home, it's now FOUR WEEKS IN A ROW that the QB I was down on versus the ESPN experts ended up as a top-5 QB! Last week it was Cam Newton (ESPN #17, ME NOT RANKED) who had been absolutely terrible to start the season. What'd he do in New England? How about 4 total touchdowns in a shocking road win?! Unreal. As for Trevor Siemian, he didn't bounce back after a rough week in Buffalo (ESPN #16, ME #9). He followed that up with a poor performance against a weak Raider secondary and nearly finished outside of the top-20. Hopefully I can do better with my QB picks here in Week 5...
|
I'm high on: Eli Manning (ESPN #14, ME #7)
What are they going to do? Run the ball?!? Well, if they could run against anyone it'd probably be this Chargers team, who is giving up the second most rushing yards per game. But I'm going to take a wild guess and say Eli will continue to throw the ball 40+ times and have multiple touchdown passes for the third week in a row.
 I'm down on: Tyrod Taylor (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED)
Can I make it 5 weeks in a row where the QB I'm down on versus the ESPN experts ends up as a top-5 fantasy QB? Time will tell, but Tyrod will have to do it against a Bengal defense that is giving up the third fewest passing yards per game to opposing QBs and an average of 1 passing TD/game. I only ranked 15 QBs this week because it just didn't feel right ranking guys like Josh McCown and Jacoby Brissett, but I actually had both of them ahead of Tyrod when I was narrowing down my list. Taylor is definitely someone who has a high floor due to his rushing yards, but I don't see him as a QB1 this week. Losing Jordan Matthews will hurt him, and I can't imagine he'll even throw the ball more than 20-25 times.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RBs |
1.Le'Veon Bell
|
2.Ezekiel Elliott
3.Kareem Hunt
4.Todd Gurley
|
5.Leonard Fournette
6.LeSean McCoy
7.Carlos Hyde
8.Jay Ajayi
9.Melvin Gordon
10.Jordan Howard
11.Bilal Powell
12.Lamar Miller
13.Frank Gore
|
14.DeMarco Murray
15.Joe Mixon
16.Ameer Abdullah
17.Mike Gillislee
18.Doug Martin
|
19.LeGarrette Blount
20.Latavius Murray
21.Duke Johnson
22.Christian McCaffery
23.Isaiah Crowell
|
24.Ty Montgomery
|
25.Tarik Cohen
|
26.Jonathan Stewart
27.Javorius Allen
|
28.Andre Ellington
|
29.Wendell Smallwood
|
30.Wayne Gallman
31.Marshawn Lynch
32.Chris Johnson
|
|
33.James White
34.Elijah McGuire
|
35.Alex Collins
|
36.Eddie Lacy
|
37.Giovani Bernard
38.Derrick Henry
39.Thomas Rawls
|
40.Jacquizz Rodgers
Last week I was high on Derrick Henry (ESPN #42, ME #30), who proceeded to have his worst game of the year. The Titans couldn't get anything going on the ground against the Texans (aside from Mariota's rushing TDs), and when the QB went down in the 3rd quarter, Tennessee's offense did absolutely nothing. This obviously wasn't a great call, but I did say that Henry and DeMarco are virtually in a 50/50 split. So ranking Murray inside the top-20 and Henry outside of the top-40 didn't make sense to me, and I stand by that (at least for now). The two basically split carries on Sunday, and neither produced.
Anyway, I was down on Wendell Smallwood (ESPN #31, ME # 40), and I was wrong there too. Well, sort of. I said all three of Philly's RBs would get touches against the Chargers, and I actually liked Blount more than either of the other two this week. Blount outscored Smallwood (though both put up top-15 numbers), and Corey Clement had the same number of rushes as Smallwood. So I was right about this being a full blown committee, and I was right to be higher on Blount. I'm still not going crazy ranking Wendell Smallwood with this kind of usage, but I could see Blount and Smallwood both having value again this week. However, I still say Blount ends up with more fantasy points, and I have him ranked 10 spots higher than Smallwood.
I'm high on: Elijah McGuire (ESPN #52, ME #34)
 This is assuming Matt Forte is still out due to turf toe (which I feel like is usually a multiple week deal), but McGuire looked good last week against the Jags. And I know that last part about it being against the Jags doesn't help my argument, but this week the Jets get to face he Browns! Everyone likes Bilal Powell to have a good game in this one, but I'm also looking for the rookie to be a good FLEX play. If Forte is out for this game, scoop up McGuire off waivers and throw him in your lineup!
I'm down on: Marshawn Lynch (ESPN #19, ME #31)
| Maybe this is the game he finally breaks out, but I wouldn't be counting on it...and that's exactly what ESPN is doing by ranking him in their top-20. Least Mode doesn't even have double-digit rushing attempts in either of his last two games, and EJ Manuel will be trying to move the ball down the field against Baltimore this week (NOT Derek Carr). Maybe Lynch salvages his day with a 1 yard touchdown run, but I don't see him as a top-20 RB this week. | | | |
|
|
|
|
|
WRs
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.Jordy Nelson
2.Mike Evans
3.Odell Beckham, Jr.
4.A.J. Green
|
5.Stefon Diggs
6.DeAndre Hopkins
|
7.Dez Bryant
|
8.Chris Hogan
9.Larry Fitzgerald
|
10.Antonio Brown
|
11.Keenan Allen
12.DeVante Parker
13.Tyreek Hill
14.Doug Baldwin
|
15.Brandin Cooks
16.T.Y. Hilton
17.Pierre Garcon
18.Golden Tate
19.Jarvis Landry
20.Randall Cobb
21.Kelvin Benjamin
|
22.DeSean Jackson
23.Adam Thielen
24.Davante Adams
25.Jaron Brown
26.Martavis Bryant
|
27.Alshon Jeffery
|
|
28.Amari Cooper
29.Tyrell Williams
|
30.Rishard Matthews
|
31.Devin Funchess
34.Marqise Lee
|
36.Robby Anderson
37.Will Fuller
|
38.Mike Wallace
39.Paul Richardson
|
40.Jeremy Maclin
|
|
After getting 15 targets through the first two games, Kenny Stills (ESPN NOT RANKED, ME #37) received only 3 looks from Cutler against a Saints team that was terrible against the deep ball. I didn't watch this game (thank goodness), but I'm surprised Stills didn't get more looks, especially considering the Dolphins lost 20-0. Why were they not trying to throw deep in this game...at least toward the end?!?
Anyway, I was down on Pierre Garcon (ESPN #23, ME #41), who was facing Patrick Peterson. That dude shuts down whoever he's covering, and this week was no different. Garcon ended up outside of the top-50 fantasy WRs in Week 4, and if Peterson covers Alshon this week, I'd be a little worried if I owned him...
 I'm high on: Chris Hogan (ESPN #17, ME #8)
Yes, I ranked him ahead of Antonio Brown. Deal with it.
The guy has 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games, and he's facing a Buccaneer defense tomorrow that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year. With more targets than any other Patriot WR last week, I had to pencil him in for a top-10 finish on Thursday Night Football.
I'm down on: Sammy Watkins (ESPN #27, ME NOT RANKED)
This guy is about to face a tough stretch of shutdown corners, and it starts this week with Richard Sherman. After that he'll face Jalen Ramsey and Patrick Peterson before hitting his bye week. When he's back in Week 9, his reward will be getting smothered by Janoris Jenkins. The window to trade Watkins was tiny and it was right after he blew up in Week 3. Now I wouldn't want any part of him this week or any coming up on the schedule.
|
|
|
|
|
TEs
|
|
1.Rob Gronkowski
|
2.Travis Kelce
3.Zach Ertz
4.Charles Clay
5.Cameron Brate
|
6.Evan Engram
7.Delanie Walker
8.Jimmy Graham
9.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
|
10.Kyle Rudolph
11.Hunter Henry
12.Jared Cook
I wasn't really down on anyone versus the ESPN experts last week, but I gave you someone I liked a lot in Evan Engram (ESPN #12, ME #7). Through Week 3, Engram had the 11th most fantasy points and 6th most targets among all tight ends. He drew ELEVEN targets against the Bucs and finished as a top-15 fantasy TE in Week 4. He obviously didn't finish near #7 where I ranked him, but I'll still count that as a win. And here's why...
 The only "rankable" tight ends who finished ahead of him last week were: Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Brate, Clay, and Hunter Henry. So I'm saying he sort of finished 7th (right where I ranked him). He's now tied for 2nd-most targets among all TEs and is 7th in fantasy points. It looks like the ESPN dudes took notice because they ranked Engram at #7 this week (just like I did).
I'm not too down on anyone again this week, but I do want to give you someone to look for tomorrow night because I'm high on Cameron Brate (ESPN #14, ME #5). He's Jameis Winston's go-to guy in the red zone, and they've connected for a score in each of the last two games. The Patriots are giving up top-5 fantasy points to opposing TEs so far this season, and I think that'll happen again tomorrow night.
|
|
|
DEF
1.Steelers
|
2.Vikings
3.Eagles
4.Ravens
5.Lions
6.Chiefs
7.Bills
8.Seahawks
9.Bengals
10.Jets
11.Dolphins
|
12.Giants
I was high on the Lions last week (ESPN #19, ME #10), knowing Case Keenum couldn't possibly have good back-to-back games. It turns out I was right, as Detroit finished as a top-10 unit and is still the #1 defense in fantasy. I'm moving them up to my top-5 this week, as this is a squad that seems to be great at forcing turnovers.
I was down on the Texans (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED) because they were facing a Tennessee team that had given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses through 3 weeks. I said I thought the Titans would take care of the ball and put up at least 30 on Houston, and it looked like that'd be the case until Mariota went down early in the 3rd quarter. After that, all bets were off. The Texans D dominated the second half and got a pick-6 off Matt Cassell on their way to a top-5 finish.
 I'm high on : Miami Dolphins (ESPN #22, ME #11)
Speaking of Matt Cassell, I'm assuming he'll be leading the Titan offense again since they signed Brandon Weeden this week. If I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, they tell me that Mariota won't be playing in Miami this Sunday, and we all saw what the Texans did to a Mariota-less Tennessee squad. The Dolphins haven't given up more than 20 points in any of their 3 games this season, and I think they'll keep that streak going as long as Mariota is sidelined. With Hurricane Irma ruining their Week 1 home opener and last week's "home game" being in London, this week is finally Miami's home opener. I think the crowd will be rowdy, and I expect this defense to get after the Fightin' Matt Cassells.
I'm down on: Carolina Panthers (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED)
The Panthers started the season only giving up 3 points in each of their first two games, but those games were against the 49ers and Bills. They then went on to give up 34 points to the Saints and 30 to the Patriots. Granted, those are both solid offenses, but so is Detroit. I think the Lions will put up a lot of points against a Panthers defense that hasn't forced a turnover since the opening weekend.
Good luck to everyone in Week 5!
(Except you, Billy...)
Cheers,
Bart
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Speaking of the bye weeks, here they come!
No comments:
Post a Comment