QBs
1.Tom Brady
2.Drew Brees
3.Aaron Rodgers
4.Deshaun Watson
5.Cam Newton
6.Matt Ryan
7.Kirk Cousins
8.Carson Palmer
9.Alex Smith
10.Jameis Winston
11.Philip Rivers
12.Carson Wentz
13.Matthew Stafford
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14.Jacoby Brissett
15.Trevor Siemian
Sorry to disappoint, but I couldn't make it five weeks in a row where the QB I was down on versus the ESPN experts ended up as a top-5 fantasy QB. Of course that means I was actually RIGHT about this pick last week when I was down on Tyrod Taylor (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED). He was facing a Bengal defense giving up the third fewest passing yards per game to opposing QBs and an average of 1 passing TD/game. Cincy only gave up one passing TD in this game too, and Tyrod had just one rush for 3 yards. He ended up outside of the top-20 in a week with only 14 games (28 starting QBs).
I was high on Eli Manning (ESPN #14, ME #7), but I need a mulligan here. The guy lost ALL THREE of his starting WRs to injury in Week 5 but still finished as a top-15 QB! He had multiple touchdown passes for the third week in a row (like I predicted), so I'm not putting this in the "L" column.
This week I'm not sure Eli will even get positive yards at Denver, so he's not in my top-15. I also didn't rank Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota, as I'm not expecting either to be healthy enough to play. It's possible one or both will suit up, but we saw what happened with Sam Bradford on Monday night. He aggravated his injury and didn't even make it to halftime. Carr and Mariota probably have stronger bodies than Bradford, but I think both would still be risky plays this week (and that's IF they even play).
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 I'm high on: Jacoby Brissett (ESPN #19, ME #14)
He had a rough Week 4 in Seattle, but Brissett averaged nearly 22 fantasy points/game in Weeks 3 and 5 against weaker Ds (Browns & 49ers). This week he'll face another weak pass defense on Monday night, as the Titans are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. I think Jacoby and T.Y. will have another big game together, and you could do worse for a bye week fill in.
I'm down on: Matthew Stafford (ESPN #6, ME #13)
Stafford had a hot start to the season, but he's cooled off the last few weeks. He only has 3 passing TDs in his last 3 games combined, and he got a little banged up against Carolina last week. His opponent on Sunday is New Orleans, who started the year off giving up a ton of passing yards & TDs to Sam Bradford and Tom Brady in Weeks 1 & 2. But Weeks 3 & 4 were a different story, when they basically shut down Cam Newton and Jay Cutler. The Saints are coming off their bye and have had extra time to game plan for the Lions. I think Stafford could (somewhat surprisingly) struggle in New Orleans.
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RBs |
1.Leonard Fournette
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2.Kareem Hunt
3.Todd Gurley
4.Le'Veon Bell
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5.Devonta Freeman
6.Melvin Gordon
7.C.J. Anderson
8.Jordan Howard
9.Lamar Miller
10.Jay Ajayi
11.DeMarco Murray
12.Doug Martin
13.Carlos Hyde
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14.Aaron Jones
15.Ameer Abdullah
16.Javorius Allen
17.Christian McCaffery
18.Duke Johnson
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19.Marshawn Lynch
20.Mark Ingram
21.Mike Gillislee
22.Tevin Coleman
23.Alvin Kamara
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24.Elijah McGuire
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25.Jerrick McKinnon
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26.LeGarrette Blount
27.Chris Thompson
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28.Frank GoreFrank Gore
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29.Jonathan Stewart
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30.Isaiah Crowell
31.Wayne Gallman
32.Alex Collins
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33.Samaje Perine
34.James White
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35.Tarik Cohen
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36.Andre Ellington
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37.Marlon Mack
38.Adrian Peterson
39.Jamaal Charles
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40.Latavius Murray
Last week I was down on Marshawn Lynch (ESPN #19, ME #31) because he didn't even have double-digit rushing attempts in either of his last two games. Well, he did have 12 carries but only managed 53 total yards from scrimmage. I did leave a caveat to say maybe Lynch salvages his day with a 1 yard touchdown run, and he basically did just that with a 3 yard plunge to finish with double digit fantasy points for just the second time this season. He's moving back up my RB list this week, but I still can't put him in RB1 territory.
I was high on Elijah McGuire (ESPN #52, ME #34), who actually led the Jets backfield with 11 carries after Powell left with an injury. However, he only managed 20 rushing yards and added just 2 catches for 10 yards. He still didn't finish outside of the top-50 where ESPN ranked him, but he wasn't a decent FLEX option against Cleveland like I thought he might be. He got some work in though, and maybe I was just a week early on him. If you picked him up off the waiver wire last week, he could be a decent FLEX play this week if he's the only healthy Jet RB. For real this time... |
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I'm high on: Aaron Jones (ESPN #38, ME #14)
Sure, I'm assuming Ty Montgomery is still out this week (and maybe the ESPN experts aren't). But even if Montgomery plays, I'd still rank Aaron Jones in my top-30 or so. He played too well last week to put the genie back in the bottle. If Montgomery misses another week, I think Jones will be a borderline RB1. If Montgomery plays, I think Jones is still FLEX-worthy.
I'm down on: Mark Ingram (ESPN #12, ME #20)
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I feel like I'm down on Ingram versus the ESPN experts every week, but I need to call this out yet again. Adrian Peterson was dealt to the Cardinals this week, and I guess the experts thought that meant Ingram would instantly be a top-12 RB. Well, I think this trade has more to do with their faith in Kamara than Ingram, and I think this will become closer to a 50/50 timeshare starting this week. Keep in mind the opponent too, as the Lions are giving up the 3rd-FEWEST rushing yards/game this year. Detroit is also one of only two teams to not give up any rushing plays of over 20 yards. | | | |
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WRs
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1.Antonio Brown
2.Julio Jones
3.DeAndre Hopkins
4.Michael Thomas
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5.Chris Hogan
6.T.Y. Hilton
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7.Jordy Nelson
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8.Keenan Allen
9.Brandin Cooks
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10.Kelvin Benjamin
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11.Larry Fitzgerald
12.Tyreek Hill
13.Davante Adams
14.Mike Evans
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15.Michael Crabtree
16.Golden Tate
17.Stefon Diggs
18.DeVante Parker
19.Emmanuel Sanders
20.Pierre Garcon
21.Devin Funchess
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22.DeSean Jackson
23.Demaryius Thomas
24.Jarvis Landry
25.Terrelle Pryor
26.Alshon Jeffery
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27.Amari Cooper
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28.Adam Thielen
29.Will Fuller V
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30.Randall Cobb
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31.Tyrell Williams
34.Sterling Shepard
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36.Marvin Jones
37.Nelson Agholor
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38.John Brown
39.Willie Snead
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40.Jeremy Maclin
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I nailed both of my WR picks versus the ESPN experts last week. I was high on Chris Hogan (ESPN #17, ME #8) who had 74 yards and a TD on his way to a top-12 finish. With guys like Nelson Agholor and Cole Beasley finishing ahead of him in Week 5 (neither of whom any experts ranked highly), I'll chalk this up in the "W" column. Hogan led all Patriot WRs in targets for the second week in a row, and he now has 5 touchdowns in his last 4 games. He's in my top-5 this week.
I was down on Sammy Watkins (ESPN #27, ME NOT RANKED), and I even told you I'd be hesitant to rank him in the next month. He's facing about the toughest stretch of shutdown corners in the league, and I don't think I'll be ranking him for a while. He had ZERO catches for ZERO yards in Week 5.
 I'm high on: Kelvin Benjamin (ESPN #24, ME #10)
By the way, I'm a little surprised that no ESPN analysts ranked Nelson Agholor in their top-50 this week. The guy is a top-20 fantasy WR so far this season and has 3 TDs through 5 games. He's a nice dart throw for tomorrow night's game if you're looking for a FLEX play and/or a reason to watch the game. But a guy who I think will be a WR1 in that game is Kelvin Benjamin. He has double-digit fantasy points in each of his last two contests, and tomorrow night he faces a Philly defense giving up the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs this season. Feels like a recipe for success to me!
I'm down on: Rishard Matthews (ESPN #26, ME #NOT RANKED)
Mariota typically peppers this guy with targets (and hits him). But Matt Cassell? Not so much. Matthews has less than 5 fantasy points in each of his last two games (which is a game and a half with Cassell at QB). Assuming Mariota sits on Monday night, I'd stay away from Titan receivers, and that includes Rishard Matthews.
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TEs
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1.Rob Gronkowski
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2.Zach Ertz
3.Travis Kelce
4.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
5.Evan Engram
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6.Cameron Brate
7.Kyle Rudolph
8.Hunter Henry
9.Ed Dickson
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10.Jordan Reed
11.Zach Miller
12.George Kittle
I wasn't really down on anyone versus the ESPN guys last week, but that's pretty typical. However, I gave you someone I liked a lot versus the experts, and I bested them for the second week in a row. In Week 4, it was Evan Engram (ESPN #12, ME #7), and the experts made their adjustments the following week accordingly. Last week it was Cameron Brate (ESPN #14, ME #5), who caught a touchdown for the third week in a row and finished as a top-5 fantasy TE. This week, I feel like ESPN has caught up and appropriately ranked both Engram and Brate!
Speaking of this week, I'm not ranking Jared Cook or Delanie Walker because as I've mentioned, I'm assuming both of their QBs will miss another week. If either QB plays, then I'd rank their TE in the top-12. I am ranking Gronk and Kelce though, as I'm expecting both to play. Keep an eye on Kelce, as he'll need to get through the concussion protocol in order to suit up on Sunday.
I'm high on: George Kittle (ESPN #21, ME #12)
 I'm also 5 spots higher on Austin Sefarian-Jenkins than the ESPN experts, but I thought I'd give you a longer shot this week in case your waiver wire is thin. Kittle was pretty quiet until the 4th quarter last week, but he made a big impact in that final series of regulation against the Colts. He scored the first touchdown of his rookie campaign, and I think it's very possible he scores against my Redskins on Sunday. Washington has allowed opposing tight ends to lead their teams in receiving yards in ALL FOUR of their games this year. George Kittle could end up with a huge game this week, but it'll definitely take a leap of faith!
I'm down on: Jordan Reed (ESPN #4, ME #10)
| So in that same game, I have to say I'm down on Reed versus the experts. He just hasn't gotten anything going this year, and he's been dealing with various injuries. I hope he breaks out against the Niners, but I'd have a hard time starting him until he at least has a game where he can get like...5 fantasy points (which he hasn't done yet this season). Also, the 49ers are giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs this year, so there's that too... |
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DEF
1.Broncos
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2.Ravens
3.Falcons
4.Jaguars
5.Texans
6.Redskins
7.Panthers
8.Patriots
9.Chiefs
10.Rams
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Last week I was down on the Carolina Panthers (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED), who hadn't forced a turnover since the opening weekend. Well, they actually got a fumble recovery in this game to go with their 6 sacks, but they gave up a ton of points and didn't finish as a top-12 fantasy defense in my league.
As for the team I was high on, I was surprised that none of the experts liked the Miami Dolphins (ESPN #22, ME #11). Mariota was clearly not going to play, so it was Matt Cassell and company traveling to South Beach for Miami's home opener. The Dolphins held the Titans to just 10 points and scored a defensive TD on their way to finishing as the 2nd-best fantasy defense in Week 5. This week, the Titans face the Colts on Monday night. It sounds like Mariota could return, but I wouldn't count on it. This would make Indy's defense startable for me if Matt Cassell is the QB again, but I won't rank them since things are still very much up in the air as of tonight. The same could be said for the Chargers, who may be facing Derek Carr or EJ Manuel. If it's the latter, they'd be stream-worthy this week too.
My defense rankings are essentially the same as ESPN's this week, and I only felt good about ranking 10 for you. If you've paid attention to matchups, hopefully you were able to pick up the Falcons or Redskins, who were widely available on the waiver wire earlier this week.
Good luck to everyone in Week 6!
(Except you, Andy...)
Cheers,
Bart
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I was patting myself on the back after I picked up Deshaun Watson off the waiver wire in Week 4, started him, and finished with the most team points in my league that week. Fast forward to Week 5 when Watson finished as the #1 fantasy QB for the second week in a row...and he was on my BENCH! I lost my matchup by 4 points, and I don't have to tell you that starting Jameis Winston instead cost me the win.
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