Wednesday, October 25, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

Image result for jameis winstonWith Deshaun Watson on a bye and Jameis Winston facing a tough Buffalo defense in Week 7, I actually started Brett Hundley against the Saints in my Yahoo league (oops!).  While that was definitely not the right call, ultimately it didn't matter in my matchup because my opponent had Zeke and would've crushed me no matter what.  But this week it could matter!  With Jameis lighting up the Bills, I'm back to my dilemma of Watson versus Winston in Week 8.  And while I certainly could have worse problems than having two good QBs on my fantasy team, it'll be a tough choice the rest of the season as long as both guys stay healthy.  Bigger problems would be things like injuries and bye weeks, and the big byes are finally here.  Remember there are 6 teams on a bye this week AND next week, so if you're not at least looking a little bit ahead, you probably should be.

Let's get to the rankings!

BYE: Arizona, Green Bay, Jacksonville, LA Rams, NY Giants, Tennessee 

QBs
1.Carson Wentz 
2.Tom Brady  
3.Russell Wilson     
4.Dak Prescott
5.Drew Brees  
6.Kirk Cousins  
7.Cam Newton  
8.Tyrod Taylor
9.Andy Dalton
10.DeShaun Watson
11.Jameis Winston 
12.Alex Smith 
13.Matt Ryan 
14.Derek Carr 
15.Philip Rivers

Last week I was high on Carson Wentz (ESPN #8, ME #3) in part because he's a top-5 fantasy QB this season (so, like, DUH!), but also because the Redskins were likely without two starting corners on MNF.  While Breeland actually played, Norman sat again with a rib injury, and Wentz finished as the #1 fantasy QB in Week 7.  This week he gets the 49ers at home, and I have him in my top spot.  If you own Wentz, I don't see how you could even start Brady or Brees over him right now.

I was down on Matt Ryan (ESPN #3, ME #8) even though he was facing a Patriots team giving up the most fantasy points to QBs this season.  I just didn't trust Ryan as a top-5 fantasy QB because he hadn't done it yet this year.  And you know what?  He still hasn't!  Ryan threw just one TD pass (for the 5th time in 6 games this season), and even that was close to being intercepted if it weren't for Julio ripping it away from the defender.  Matty Ice barely finished inside the top-15 fantasy QBs, and he's just not playing at the same level he was last year.  I don't know why the ESPN experts continue to rank him as a top-10 option, but of course they are.  Not me though!

Image result for andy daltonI'm high on: Andy Dalton (ESPN #13, ME #9)
One guy who is in my top-10 this week but not ESPN's is the Red Rifle.  Dalton hasn't been great this year, but his splits against good/bad defenses is pretty obvious.  He struggled the last couple of weeks against Buffalo and Pittsburgh, but he torched Cleveland and had a pair of TDs in Green Bay.  This week he faces the Colts at home, and Indy is giving up top-10 numbers to opposing QBs this year.  I think Andy will throw for close to 300 yards and have multiple touchdowns in this game.  I'm playing against A.J. Green this week, so I'm just hoping all of those TDs don't go to him.

I'm down on: Philip Rivers (ESPN #9, ME #15
Don't look now, but the Patriots seem to be getting better on the defensive side of the ball.  They struggled mightily in Weeks 1-4, but none of their last 3 opponents have scored more than 17 points against them.  Of course that also includes the Falcons only scoring 7 points in Foxboro last week.  I think Rivers could have a hard time finding the end zone in New England, and I don't trust him as a top-10 play this week.

RBs
1.Le'Veon Bell   
2.Ezekiel Elliott 
3.LeSean McCoy
4.Mark Ingram  
5.Melvin Gordon   
6.Kareem Hunt 
7.Devonta Freeman 
8.Jordan Howard 
9.Jay Ajayi  
10.Doug Martin
11.Joe Mixon  
12.Lamar Miller   
13.Carlos Hyde 
14.Alvin Kamara 
15.C.J. Anderson
16.Chris Thompson   
17.Christian McCaffer 
18.LeGarrette Blount  
19.Ameer Adbullah 
20.Jerrick McKinnon
21.Tevin Coleman 
22.Javorius Allen  
23.Dion Lewis  
24.Jalen Richard  
25.Wendell Smallwood
26.Duke Johnson    
27.Bilal Powell  
28.Latavius Murray
29.DeAndre Washington  
30.Matt Forte 
31.Rob Kelley 
32.Frank Gore
33.Isaiah Crowell 
34.James White 
35.Tarik Cohen
Is it time to be done with Jonathan Stewart?  I sure think so, but I guess the Panthers aren't quite convinced just yet.  Last week I didn't even rank him (ESPN #29, ME NOT RANKED), and he finished with fewer than 5 fantasy points for the 4th game in a row.  He was outside of the top-35 against the Bears, and I think he's droppable in a 12-team league or smaller.  I was high on Orleans Darkwa (ESPN #34, ME #21), who had 13+ fantasy points in each of his previous two games, but that mini streak ended in Week 7.  The Giants played from behind in this game and Darkwa didn't get much of anything going.  In fact, he finished with the exact same amount of fantasy points as Jonathan Stewart (ironically enough).

I'm high on: Jalen Richard (ESPN #36, ME #24)
Image result for jalen richardWith Marshawn Lynch serving his one game suspension this week, the Raiders will likely use an even timeshare between Richard and Washington.  However, I have a feeling the game flow could dictate more passing downs for Oakland, which could mean more snaps for Richard.  Either way, I like him way more than the ESPN experts, and I like Richard to have a better game than Washington this week.
I'm down on: Jonathan Stewart...again (ESPN #28, ME NOT RANKED)
I'm not really sure what about his performance last week (or any week really) caused the ESPN experts to keep Stewart where he was in the rankings.  You know what though?  I kept him at the same spot in my rankings too, which is not in them!  To quote Forrest Gump: "...and that's all I have to say about that."


WRs
1.A.J. Green 
2.Antonio Brown   
3.Julio Jones    
4.Mike Evans
5.Dez Bryant 
6.Michael Thomas  
7.Doug Baldwin
8.Kelvin Benjamin
9.DeAndre Hopkins
10.Michael Crabtree  
11.Keenan Allen
12.Chris Hogan
13.Jarvis Landry
14.Demaryius Thomas  
15.Tyreek Hill 
16.Amari Cooper  
17.Nelson Agholor
18.Adam Thielen
19.Alshon Jeffery
20.Brandin Cooks
21.T.Y. Hilton  
22.Pierre Garcon
23.DeSean Jackson 
24.Ted Ginn 
25.Devin Funchess  
26.Marvin Jones
27.Kenny Stills
28.Will Fuller V 
29.Robby Anderson 
30.Mohamed Sanu 
31.Jermaine Kearse  
32.JuJu Smith-Schuster
33.Bennie Fowler
34.Jordan Matthews
35.Josh Doctson  

Last week I was high on Nelson Agholor again versus the ESPN experts, but I talked up Bennie Fowler instead.  I guess I should've stuck with Agholor because he found the endzone for the third straight game and finished with double-digit fantasy points.  By the way, ESPN still has Agholor ranked too low (consensus NPPR ranking of 29th!).  He's getting up near WR1 territory for me, but the experts seem to think that Alshon is somehow a way better fantasy player.  Maybe they should check the scoreboard.

As for Fowler (ESPN NOT RANKED, ME #30), he nearly finished outside of the top-40.  Even with Emmanuel Sanders out, Fowler only had 5 targets.  And while he caught all 5 of them for 45 yards (his second-highest total of the season), he still wasn't a great option in Week 7.  He still makes my top-35 while Sanders sits, but I don't feel great about him the way the Broncos played last week. 

Image result for ted ginnI was down on Randall Cobb (ESPN #35, ME NOT RANKED), who was averaging 4 targets/game in his previous three contests and has less than 50 yards in every game since Week 2.  I was hoping to be pleasantly surprised with Hundley, but not so much with Cobb.  Neither did much of anything, but Cobb finished with just 2 catches for 15 yards and well outside of the top-50 WRs in Week 7. 

I'm high on: Ted Ginn (ESPN #33, ME #24)
Willie Snead is still working his way back from a hamstring injury, and he was inactive last week against Green Bay.  If he sits again, I'd probably have Ginn even higher than this.  As it is, I think Brees likely has built some trust here and Ginn is always a big play away from a solid fantasy day.  At home against the Bears secondary seems like as good a spot as any for Ginn to score a touchdown.

I'm down on: Brandin Cooks (ESPN #10, ME #20)
This is really going against the grain, as not just ESPN but most experts have Cooks as a top-10 play this week against the Chargers.  But I'm a little concerned because I feel like Cooks will be shadowed by Casey Hayward all day, and he has shut down some good receivers this year.  Just ask Demaryius Thomas, who was held to two catches for 9 yards last week.  I still like Chris Hogan better than Cooks, and I have him ranked higher (he's found the endzone in twice as many games).  You're probably not sitting Brandin Cooks in any league, and I still have him as a startable player in Week 8.  I just have him in the WR2 territory rather than WR1.



TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski 
2.Zach Ertz
3.Travis Kelce
4.Jimmy Graha
5.Jordan Reed    
6.Hunter Henry 
7.Kyle Rudolph 
8.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins 
9.Cameron Brate
10.Jason Witten
11.Tyler Kroft
12.Jared Cook

My tight end rankings were more or less the same as ESPN's last week, so I didn't have anyone to call out.  This week my rankings are nearly IDENTICAL, so we'll skip this position and keep moving along to the defenses.

DEF
1.Vikings   
2.Saints
3.Eagles
4.Bengals
5.Ravens  
6.Seahawks  
7.Steelers
8.Chiefs 
9.Dolphins 
10.Bills

Last week I was high on the Jets (ESPN #20, ME #10) and down on the Ravens (ESPN #7, ME NOT RANKED).  The Jets were looking pretty good until Jay Cutler ran out of cigarettes and was forced to leave the game.  I'm kidding of course...pretty sure he just threw a temper tantrum and got benched.  Sure, let's go with that.  Either way, Matt Moore came in and led the Dolphins to a 4th quarter comeback.  Had Cutler stayed in, I guarantee the Jets would've been a top-10 defense and won the game.  Thanks for ruining my pick, Jay!  The Jets still finished as the 16th-best fantasy defense, so they got you some points.  I'm not sure I'd trust them against Atlanta this week though, as the Falcons will likely be playing angry after getting embarrassed in Foxboro last Sunday night.

As for Baltimore, they gave up 24 points to the Vikings, had zero sacks and forced just one turnover.  They finished as one of the worst fantasy defenses in Week 7, so I nailed that one.  Matt Moore is starting tomorrow night, so the Ravens are back in my rankings but not as high as they would be if Cutler was still the starter.  You just know Smokin' Jay is good for a couple of picks and plenty of sacks, but Moore is definitely a better "game manager".  Still, Moore is being thrown in as the starter on a short week, so you have to like the Ravens D in the Thursday nighter.

I'm high on: New Orleans Saints (ESPN #8, ME #2)
This unit is usually thought of as a pushover, and in Weeks 1 & 2 they looked like it.  But since then they've looked much better on the defensive side of the ball.  And while the Lions scored 38 on them a couple of weeks ago, most of that came in the last 20 minutes of the game with the Saints holding a huge lead (and two of those TDs weren't against the defense).  Otherwise, New Orleans has held the Panthers, Dolphins, and Packers to 13, 0, and 17 points respectively.  They've had 8 interceptions in their last 4 games, and this week they face Mitchell Trubisky.  Something tells me the rookie will be good for a pick 6 in this game.  Dial up the Saints D at home, baby!

I'm down on: Houston Texans (ESPN #10, ME NOT RANKED)
I only ranked 10 defenses this week because it just didn't feel right ranking a team like the Broncos at Arrowhead or even the Falcons in New York against a surprisingly decent Jets squad.  But when I narrowed down my rankings, I didn't even consider the Texans in Seattle.  The Seahawks are averaging over 28 points per game in their last four, and the Texans have given up a ton of points to good teams like the Chiefs and Patriots this year.  Houston is coming off their bye, but they're still dealing with major injuries on defense.  I think they'll finish in the bottom 10 fantasy defenses this week.

Image result for texans defense injuries

Good luck to everyone in Week 8!  
(Except you, Carl...)

Cheers,
Bart

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