Wednesday, October 18, 2017

2017 Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

Image result for aaron rodgers injuryI feel like every week I start this thing off with a brutal injury, and this week is no different.  In case you missed it, Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in the first quarter against the Vikings on Sunday.  It's going to require surgery, which means he could be done for the season.  It also means Brett Hundley will get the start on Sunday for the Packers...and also for my fantasy team: MakeDemaryiusGr8Agn.

I'm actually in a bit of a tough spot this week because DeShaun Watson is on a bye and Jameis Winston might miss his game due to a shoulder injury.  Even if Jameis does play, it'd be against a tough Buffalo defense giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs.  So I actually picked Hundley off the waiver wire in my league, and I'll probably be starting him on Sunday.  Our waiver wire is super thin right now, and all of my top-15 QBs below are on rosters.  But I'd have Hundley right around 16 or 17, so we'll see what happens!

There are only two teams with a bye this week, but then Weeks 8 and 9 are rough (6 teams off each week).  If you haven't already, you should start looking ahead a little bit to plan for your byes.  I guarantee one or both of those weeks is going to impact your fantasy team.

But enough talk.  Let's do the rankings!

BYE: Detroit and Houston

QBs
1.Tom Brady           
2.Dak Prescott
3.Carson Wentz 
4.Drew Brees   
5.Cam Newton  
6.Kirk Cousins
7.Russell Wilson   
8.Matt Ryan
9.Marcus Mariota
10.Alex Smith
11.Carson Palmer
12.Derek Carr 
13.Jared Goff  
14.Tyrod Taylor
15.Philip Rivers  

Last week I was high on Jacoby Brissett (ESPN #19, ME #14), who was facing the Titans on Monday Night Football.  He finished as the #13 fantasy QB, and he could've easily been in the top-10 if Moncrief didn't drop an easy TD in the first half.  This week, Jacoby is out of my top-15 though.  He's facing a Jags team giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, so keep him out of your lineup.

I was down on Matthew Stafford (ESPN #6, ME #13) in New Orleans, where I thought he might struggle.  He had a terrible game in real life, throwing 3 interceptions and losing 2 fumbles in the loss.  However, he still threw 50 times for over 300 yards and had 2 touchdowns.  He finished as the #8 fantasy QB in my league, but it's possible he finished outside of the top-10 if your league penalizes players more for turnovers.

Image result for carson wentzI'm high on: Carson Wentz (ESPN #8, ME #3)
ESPN barely ranked Wentz in their top-10, but I think he'll have a big week against my Redskins on Monday night.  Washington will be without Josh Norman, and Bashaud Breeland could be out as well.  Some of our young corners stepped up against the 49ers, but that was mostly against a rookie QB thrust into the game after Hoyer did nothing in the first quarter.  It also wasn't against the caliber of WRs and TEs that Philly possesses.  Wentz is a top-5 fantasy QB through 6 games, and he's thrown for 7 TDs in his last two.  He threw for over 300 yards and a pair of TDs at FedEx Field in Week 1, and I think he'll do even better than that this time around.  I just hope Cousins can also put up big numbers to keep Washington in the game.


I'm down on: Matt Ryan (ESPN #3, ME #8
It looks like I have Wentz and Ryan as mirrored ranks versus the experts this week, but I just have a hard time putting Matty Ice that highly right now.  He's currently outside of the top-25 fantasy QBs and has thrown more than 1 TD pass in a game just once this season.  He hasn't scored more than 16 fantasy points in a game since Week 1, and while I realize the Patriots are giving up a ton of points to opposing QBs, I just don't trust this particular one like I did in 2016. 

RBs
1.Le'Veon Bell 
2.Leonard Fournette  
3.Kareem Hunt
4.Ezekiel Elliott   
5.Todd Gurley 
6.Melvin Gordon 
7.Devonta Freeman 
8.LeSean McCoy
9.Jay Ajayi  
10.Mark Ingram 
11.Jordan Howard 
12.Adrian Peterson  
13.Carlos Hyde 
14.Jerrick McKinnon
15.Joe Mixon 
16.Doug Martin
17.DeMarco Murray
18.C.J. Anderson 
19.Christian McCaffer
20.Tevin Coleman
21.Orleans Darkwa
22.Alvin Kamara 
23.Marshawn Lynch 
24.LeGarrette Blount 
25.Ty Montgomery
26.Chris Thompson  
27.Duke Johnson
28.Rob Kelley
29.Derrick Henry
30.Javorius Allen
31.Frank Gore
32.Aaron Jones 
33.Isaiah Crowell 
34.Matt Forte
35.Tarik Cohen  
36.James White
37.Wendell Smallwood
38.Marlon Mack 
39.Alex Collins
40.Andre Ellington
 
My worst call of Week 6 had to be Mark Ingram (ESPN #12, ME #20), who the ESPN experts quickly made an RB1 after the Adrian Peterson trade.  I didn't because I thought the trade was more about the Saints liking Kamara, and I expected this to be more of a 50/50 timeshare right away.  Yeah, not so much.  Mark Ingram had BY FAR his best game of the season, and Kamara only had 10 carries to Ingram's 25.  Ingram was a top-5 fantasy RB, but he actually finished behind Adrian Peterson for the week.  Both RBs have now shot up my rankings, and Kamara stays in the RB2 range.  This trade appears to have worked out for all three guys, at least as far as fantasy goes.


Last week I assumed Ty Montgomery would still be out, so I was really high on Aaron Jones versus the experts (ESPN #38, ME #14).  I did say that even if Montgomery played (which he did), I thought Jones was still FLEX-worthy (top-30).  Well, as I've mentioned already, Aaron Rodgers went down super early in this game and didn't return.  So all bets were pretty much off with any of Green Bay's position players to get fantasy points in this game.  But I will point out that Aaron Jones got more carries, targets, and fantasy points than Ty Montgomery against the Vikings.  The rookie also outsnapped Monty 43-20, so I'll put this near the win column but not quite in it. 

I'm high on: Orleans Darkwa (ESPN #34, ME #21)
The guy has 13+ fantasy points in each of his last two games, and last week that was at Denver!  What more do you want from him?!?  This week he plays Seattle (at home by the way), and of course you'd think this is another tough defense to avoid (yeah, like Denver, right...?).  Well, the Seahawks are actually giving up the 7th most rushing yards/game.  They just haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing RBs this year because they've only allowed 2 rushing TDs in 5 games.  I think Darkwa has a good shot at double-digit fantasy points with yardage alone, and if he can find the end zone, he'll end up as a top-10 RB in Week 7.

I'm down on: Jonathan Stewart (ESPN #29, ME NOT RANKED)
Image result for jonathan stewartThe Daily Show hasn't had more than 6 fantasy points in a game since Week 1, and last week he had negative fantasy points against the Eagles.  Speaking of last week, it seemed like Christian McCaffery barely came out of the game in the second half.  I get the feeling the Panthers may have finally realized the rookie is 10 times the playmaker the veteran is, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Stewart have single-digit carries again while McCaffery takes on a bigger workload.  I'd sit Stewart this week, and he may not even be startable the rest of the year if McCaffery takes over and doesn't look back.


WRs
1.Antonio Brown   
2.Julio Jones
3.A.J. Green  
4.Mike Evans    
5.Dez Bryant 
6.Michael Thomas  
7.Larry Fitzgerald 
8.Chris Hogan 
9.Michael Crabtree   
10.Kelvin Benjamin
11.Brandin Cooks 
12.Demaryius Thomas   
13.Jordy Nelson
14.Tyreek Hill 
15.Jarvis Landry
16.Keenan Allen  
17.Davante Adams 
18.Alshon Jeffery
19.Doug Baldwin 
20.Pierre Garcon 
21.Adam Thielen 
22.Nelson Agholor 
23.Rishard Matthews
24.Devin Funchess  
25.T.Y. Hilton 
26.DeSean Jackson 
27.Amari Cooper 
28.Danny Amendola
29.John Brown
30.Bennie Fowler
31.Sterling Shepard 
32.Marqise Lee   
33.Mohamed Sanu
34.Terrelle Pryor
35.Paul Richardson
36.Robert Woods
37.Jermaine Kearse  
38.Eric Decker 
39.Jeremy Maclin
40.Cooper Kupp

Two weeks ago, I nailed both of my WR picks versus the ESPN experts, but last week's picks were somewhat incomplete.  You see, I was down on Rishard Matthews (ESPN #26, ME #NOT RANKED) because I assumed Mariota wasn't playing Monday night.  Mariota did play though, so I don't want to take credit for my Matthews pick (even though he finished as the #35 fantasy WR).  He only had 4 targets, but he turned them into 69 yards and would've scored an easy TD if he hadn't barely lost his balance and gone out of bounds on a nice catch and run.  Rishard is back in WR2 territory this week.

I was high on Kelvin Benjamin (ESPN #24, ME #10), who ended up with a season high in targets (13) and receptions (9).  He turned that into 99 receiving yards but didn't find the endzone and finished just outside of the top-20.  Still, he was a solid start and stays in my top-10 for Week 7.  A guy who did find the endzone in that game was Nelson Agholor, who I ranked in the 30s but pointed out that NO ESPN experts had him in their top-50.  He was a top-15 WR in Week 6 and is now a top-12 fantasy WR on the season.  Time to pay attention, ESPN!  He's moving up my list this week, but he's barely in ESPN's top-50.  Uhhhhhh, what?!?  How can you not at least rank this guy as a WR3?  I'm more than 20 spots higher than the ESPN experts on Agholor, but I'll give you a longer shot who I also like this week...

Image result for bennie fowlerI'm high on: Bennie Fowler (ESPN NOT RANKED, ME #30)
Emmanuel Sanders has already been declared out for Sunday's game against the Chargers, so Fowler will be playing a ton alongside Demaryius Thomas.  Bennie had 8 targets last week, and I think he'll see similar volume this week against a defense giving up the 8th most fantasy points to WRs.  And don't worry about this game being on the road.  There will be more Bronco fans in "L.A." than Charger fans, so this is basically a home game.  With Sanders out, I could easily see Fowler having his best yardage total of the year in this one.

I'm down on: Randall Cobb (ESPN #35, ME NOT RANKED)
It may feel like I'm splitting hairs here, but I'm really not.  I didn't even consider Cobb when I was narrowing down my list from about 50 to 40 WRs.  He's averaging 4 targets/game in his last three contests, and he's had less than 50 yards in every game since Week 2.  Now he's lost Aaron Rodgers, and I'm not sure Brett Hundley will necessarily look his way either.  I'd still roll Nelson and Adams out there, but I'd keep expectations low this week for all Green Bay receivers.  I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised with Hundley, but not so much with Cobb.


TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Zach Ertz
3.Travis Kelce
4.Jimmy Graha
5.Cameron Brate
6.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins 
7.Delanie Walker 
8.Evan Engram  
9.Hunter Henry
10.Kyle Rudolph
11.Jordan Reed
12.Austin Hooper 
13.Jack Doyle
14.George Kittle 
15.Ed Dickson

Last week I was high on one tight end and down on the other in the Redskins/49ers game, but the names probably weren't what you expected.  I was down on Jordan Reed (ESPN #4, ME #10), who still hasn't eclipsed the 5 fantasy point mark in any game this season.  He caught just 4 of 5 targets for 37 yards on Sunday.  Meanwhile, George Kittle (ESPN #21, ME #12) had 4 catches on 8 targets (and one pretty bad drop that I recall).  He only turned that into 46 yards, but he ended up better than Reed on the day (which was sort of my point last week in this matchup anyway).  With 17 targets in his last 2 weeks, Kittle is someone to keep on the radar.  It's also somewhat interesting now that C.J. Beathard has been announced as the starting QB for the 49ers because Beathard and Kittle were teammates in college (Iowa).

Image result for jordan reedThis week, my tight end rankings are more or less the same as ESPN's.  I mean, I didn't rank Jason Witten in my top-15 and they did.  He's facing the 49ers, who give up the fewest points to the position.  But ESPN tends to always rank Jason Witten.  I'm also still down on Jordan Reed until he actually produces, but they continue to rank him like he's been a top-5 TE all year (news flash: he hasn't).  We'll see what happens with those guys and others, but maybe I'll talk up a guy or two next week.

DEF
1.Vikings
2.Seahawks
3.Jaguars 
4.Steelers
5.Panthers
6.Broncos
7.Titans 
8.Bills 
9.Chiefs
10.Jets
11.Rams
12.Dolphins 

Last week my DST rankings were essentially the same as ESPN's, so no comparisons from me.
This week, there aren't a ton of obvious options, but I disagree with the ESPN rankings on a couple...


I'm high on: New York Jets (ESPN #20, ME #10)
I shouldn't have to say anything more than "Jay Cutler", but I will...
Image result for new york jets defense cutlerThe Jets got off to an 0-2 start this season, and everyone thought that 0-16 talk could be legit.  Then they went on to win their next three, and they gave New England everything they wanted last week (albeit in a close loss).  Including the 24 points they gave up to the Patriots, the Jets defense has given up 14.5 PPG in the last 4 weeks.  That ain't too shabby.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins are scoring just 12.2 PPG on offense this season.  TWELVE.  POINT.  TWO.  And also, you know...Jay Cutler, turnover machine.  I say the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS are a top-10 fantasy defense this week and pull out a win in Miami.


I'm down on: Baltimore Ravens (ESPN #7, ME NOT RANKED)
Yes, they're a top-5 fantasy defense on the season.  Yes, they've looked good the last couple of weeks.  But the last couple of weeks, they've faced EJ Manuel and Mitchell Trubisky.  The two weeks before that, they got smoked by the Steelers and Jags.  This is a hard team to figure out, but I'm not trusting them this week in Minnesota.  The Vikings give up the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I think they will control the time of possession and wear down Baltimore's D in this game.

Good luck to everyone in Week 7!  
(Except you, Jimmy...)

Cheers,
Bart

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