Real Football Predictions for 2013

I thought I had one last overall rankings update in me before my "fun league" draft this weekend, but it's not happening.  This other league has PPR, bonus points, and all sorts of other stuff going on.  As I started to shuffle players around, I quickly realized it wasn't worth it.  So I'm just going to shoot from the hip at my draft this Sunday.  Next week, my rankings will have a different look to them.  They will be sorted by position, be highly matchup based, and like I said in an earlier article, I'm going to try to be a little more bold this year.  We'll see how that works out.

Since I'm not giving a final overall rankings update, I thought I'd jump into some real football predictions for this season.  Last year before week one, I sat down and tried to predict the winner of every game with a highly sophisticated system that involved eeny, meeny, miny, and moe.  Let's be real: even if I had a computer program to crunch a bunch of numbers, it would still be a pretty silly activity.  But it was fun, so I'm going to do it again.

Hang in there, Bills fans.  It can't get worse...right?

I didn't predict that the Ravens would take down the 49ers in the Superbowl.  In fact, I wasn't even close (I had New England over Chicago).  I was also pretty wrong about teams like the Bills and the Chargers (what was I thinking?!?).  But I did get 6 of the 8 division winners right, so I guess that's something.  I mean, who saw my Redskins finishing the season with a 7-game winning streak to win the division?  Oh I saw it alright, but I definitely wouldn't have predicted it!

This year, I did my own personal simulation again, and here's what I'm left with:

NE	BUF	NYJ	MIA
9-7	5-11	4-12	7-9
BAL	PIT	CIN	CLE
10-6	8-8	11-5	4-12
HOU	TEN	JAC	IND
13-3	6-10	3-13	9-7
SD	KC	DEN	OAK
6-10	7-9	13-3	4-12
NYG	PHI	DAL	WAS
9-7	6-10	8-8	9-7
GB	CHI	DET	MIN
10-6	10-6	8-8	8-8
ATL	NO	CAR	TB
12-4	8-8	5-11	7-9
SF	SEA	STL	ARI
12-4	10-6	8-8	6-10

Once again, I won't get all of them right, but if I'm close then these could be the division storylines:

AFC East: Miami closes the gap on New England, and I could even see them winning that division if they can somehow get to 9-7 themselves.  I'm not sure the Patriots even win 10 games this year.

AFC North: Cincinnati will dethrone the Ravens in this division, and the Steelers will remain in mediocrity.  Lots of people are saying three teams will come out of this division, but I don't see it with Pittsburgh.

AFC South: Houston should continue to roll, but can they get to a Superbowl?  I don't see Indy winning this division for at least another season in the new Andrew Luck Era.

AFC West: There's a lot of hype around Kansas City with Andy Reid in town, but I still think Denver is the only playoff team in this division.

NFC East: Another year with a division up for grabs.  I'm obviously rooting for the Skins to get it in back-to-back seasons, but I think anyone could end up with the division title (yes, even Philly).

NFC North: Will it be Green Bay or Chicago?  I think Minnesota overachieved last season, and I don't see them as a playoff team again with Ponder as the ring leader.  I don't think 8-8 will get it done in the NFC.

NFC South: I think if the Saints can get to 9 wins then they have a chance at a wild card, but this division now belongs to the Falcons.

NFC West: San Fran stays on top yet again, and Seattle most likely gets another wild card spot.  Keep an eye on the Rams though.  I could see them and Seattle both at 9-7 and maybe St. Louis sneaks in there with a tiebreaker (I'm not going to pick that to happen though.  I think the Rams may still be a year away from the playoffs.)

Using my simulation as a guide, here's what I'm predicting for 2013:

AFC East: New England Patriots

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals

AFC South: Houston Texans

AFC West: Denver Broncos

AFC Wild Card1: Baltimore Ravens

AFC Wild Card2: Miami Dolphins

[Denver over Houston in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: New York Giants

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

NFC Wild Card1: Chicago Bears

NFC Wild Card2: Seattle Seahawks

[Atlanta over New York in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: Atlanta over Denver

Cheers,

Bart

2013 Fantasy Redeem Team

Who else is ready for some Endless Shrimp...?

With college football kicking off this week, we get a nice little appetizer to hold us over until the main course, which of course is the NFL.  I'm going to provide you with a nice little sampler myself, with this year's edition of the Fantasy Redeem Team.  I'm talking chicken wings, potato skins, and maybe even some bang bang shrimp.  You're getting it all.  Mmmmmm...just mentioning shrimp has my mouth watering...

If you read this article last year, you know what this is all about.  To the first timers, here's the deal.  I'm going to give you a team who is ready to atone for their 2012 fantasy sins.  These are players who underperformed based on their draft day value, and I'm ignoring players who missed a considerable amount of time due to injury.  So you won't see guys like Rashard Mendenhall or Maurice Jones-Drew.  What I am creating is a team of guys who had a pretty high 2012 ADP versus how they finished the season.  This could also be seen as a 2012 Hindsight All-Hype Team.

The 2012 team featured guys who I was spot on with (like Mike Williams and Reggie Wayne), but I was also way off on players like Brandon Lloyd and Antonio Gates.  They can't all be winners, but it's a fun exercise nonetheless.  I feel like this year's squad looks a lot stronger than last year's, as there were several top performers who just seemed to fall off in 2012.  But I feel like all of these guys have the potential for a serious bounce-back year, and I'll tell you why.

Below you'll find each player's 2011 stats, 2012 stats, my bold projected 2013 stats for them, 2012 ADP vs. 2013 ADP (roughly), and where I have each ranked in my personal rankings.  Get ready to get overloaded with numbers!

QB: Eli Manning

2011 Stats: 16 GP,  4933 Pass Yds,  29 Pass TDs, 16 INTs, 1 Rush TD
2012 Stats: 16 GP,  3948 Pass Yds,  26 Pass TDs, 15 INTs, 0 Rush TD

My 2013 Projection:  16 GP,  4500 Pass Yds,  28 Pass TDs,  18 INTs, 1 Rush TD

2012 ADP: 50

2013 ADP: 97

My rank: 85

Oh Eli's on SNL?  Let me know when Peyton hosts again...

In 2012, Eli was getting drafted ahead of his big brother (a crazy thought now knowing that Peyton would stay healthy all season).  Speaking of staying healthy, Eli is the current Ironman in the NFL.  And while he's still not even halfway to Favre's record, he has the highest active start streak going, so you know you can count on him suiting up week in and week out.  A top-10 fantasy QB in 2011, he fell off slightly in 2012 (but was still top-15 at his position).  This year the QB position is deep, and maybe that's why Eli is falling so much in drafts.  But he still has top targets Cruz and Nicks, and Reuben Randle and Brandon Myers will help the passing game overall.  David Wilson could also put up some good receiving yards out of the backfield, further padding Manning's 2013 numbers.  I like the upside of some of the young guys like Wilson and Kaepernick (especially since they have wheels that Mannings just don't possess), but I'd also be fine waiting several more rounds and ending up with Eli as my starting QB.  I think he'll return to top-10 form, and I like him a full round ahead of where he's going currently in drafts.  I also like him to randomly flash those wheels (or lack thereof) and get a random rushing TD again this season.  Why not?

RB: LeSean McCoy

2011 Stats: 15 GP,  1309 Rush Yds,  315 Rec Yds, 20 TDs
2012 Stats: 12 GP,  840 Rush Yds, 373 Rec Yds, 5 TDs

My 2013 Projection:  14 GP,  1200 Rush Yds,  550 Rec Yds, 15 TDs

2012 ADP: 5

2013 ADP: 10

My rank: 7

So I'm sort of breaking my own rule here.  Shady missed 4 games last year, but he played most of the season, so I'm including him on my 2013 Redeem Team.  After a campaign with 20 total TDs, this is a guy who was an automatic first-rounder in drafts last year.  But the Eagles struggled offensively, and McCoy's numbers suffered greatly.  Maybe he was part of the problem, but I see it more as a result than a cause.  I think Chip Kelly's offense may kickstart McCoy again, and I think he'll once again put up big numbers.  I don't have LeSean projected to play a full season because he always seems to get a little banged up one way or another.  But I think he's a lock to get over 1000 yards rushing, and I think his receiving numbers will be closer to his 2010 total (592) rather than his 2011 or 2012 numbers.  I also think an average of about a TD/game is not out of the question.

RB: Steven Jackson

2011 Stats: 15 GP,  1145 Rush Yds,  333 Rec Yds, 6 TDs
2012 Stats: 16 GP,  1042 Rush Yds, 321 Rec Yds, 4 TDs

My 2013 Projection:  16 GP,  1300 Rush Yds,  300 Rec Yds, 14 TDs

2012 ADP: 21

2013 ADP: 18

My rank: 13

Michael Turner had double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of his 5 seasons with the Falcons.  Steven Jackson did it just once with the Rams.  You can look at that as a function of Jackson not having a nose for the endzone, but you can also look at it as a Rams vs. Falcons thing.  I'll choose the latter, as I think Jackson will continue the trend in Atlanta and produce double-digit TDs with no problem.  He's also a lock at 1000+ rushing yards, as he's done it every season since his rookie year.  The only thing fantasy experts seem to be worried about with Jackson is his age/health.  Yes, he hit the dreaded 30 year old mark this summer (ancient for an NFL ball carrier), and he has a lot of tread on the tires with the Rams.  If he was 27 or 28 with his new squad, he'd no doubt be a top-5 pick in every fantasy draft.  But he's not.  I'll let other people pass on him due to his age.  If he's there in the 2nd round of your draft, jump on the old-timer.

WR: Dwayne Bowe

2011 Stats: 16 GP,  1159 Rec Yds, 5 TDs
2012 Stats: 13 GP,  801 Rec Yds, 3 TDs

My 2013 Projection:  16 GP,  1100 Rec Yds, 9 TDs

2012 ADP: 64

2013 ADP: 50

My rank: 47

I hope no one invites coach Reid to Shrimpfest this year...

Bowe's 2012 season was disappointing, ending with some broken ribs and missing the last 3 games of the season.  Had he not missed those, he most likely would have had his third consecutive 1000+ yard season (and that was with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn throwing to him).  This year, he gets a slight upgrade with Alex Smith tossing the pigskin.  More importantly he gets an even larger upgrade with Andy Reid calling the plays (no pun intended).  Reid's always featured a pass happy offense, and the Chiefs locked up and paid Bowe like he's a top-5 WR.  I don't think he'll put up top-5 fantasy numbers at the position this year, but I do think he'll bounce back in a big way, assuming he stays healthy and plays 16 games.  I'd take Bowe ahead someone like Reggie Wayne, who's currently getting drafted ahead of him in most leagues.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald

2011 Stats: 16 GP,  1411 Rec Yds, 8 TDs
2012 Stats: 16 GP,  798 Rec Yds, 4 TDs

My 2013 Projection:  16 GP,  1200 Rec Yds, 11 TDs

2012 ADP: 22

2013 ADP: 30

My rank: 28

Another guy with a new QB and head coach, Fitzgerald is primed to return to his 2011 form.  Carson Palmer hasn't had a #1 WR to throw to like Fitz since his Bengal days, but I'm sure he'll quickly remember what it's like to be able to just toss it up once you get near the endzone.  The Cardinals will probably struggle with the running game and most likely will need to air it out as they play from behind in a growingly tough division.  The QB and coach are upgrades for the passing game, and Larry looks to benefit a great deal from both.

TE: Jermichael Finley

2011 Stats: 16 GP,  767 Rec Yds, 8 TDs
2012 Stats: 16 GP,  667 Rec Yds, 2 TDs

My 2013 Projection:  16 GP,  900 Rec Yds, 9 TDs

2012 ADP: 65

2013 ADP: 97

My rank: 96

I usually don't pay too much attention to guys being in a contract year as a key indicator for fantasy numbers, but I'm making an exception for Jermichael this year.  Coaches and teammates are praising the 6-5 250 lb tight end, saying he's having a great training camp.  The guy sounds like he might be motivated to get a big pay day following this season, whether it's with the Packers or someone else.  I'm just looking at it for this fantasy season, and I think he finally breaks out in a big way this year.  Double-digit TDs are not out of the question, but I'll play it a little safer and say he hauls in nine.  With Jordy Nelson on the mend and rookie RBs in the backfield, I'm hoping Rodgers will look to his tight end when they get into the red zone starting Week One.  Early chemistry sometimes can be sustained throughout a season, especially at the TE position.

FLEX: Ryan Mathews

2011 Stats: 14 GP,  1091 Rush Yds,  455 Rec Yds, 6 TDs
2012 Stats: 12 GP,  707 Rush Yds, 252 Rec Yds, 1 TD

My 2013 Projection:  14 GP,  999 Rush Yds,  375 Rec Yds, 8 TDs

2012 ADP: 20

2013 ADP: 68

My rank: 51

Coincidentally, Mathews is looking like he'll be my Flex option this season (or at least for Week 1).  I feel like I've already written about him at length, so I don't want to spend too much more time here on him.  He has been getting praise from coaches this preseason, and apparently his mindset has matured a bit.  I highly doubt he'll play all 16 games this year, but when he's in there, he'll have every opportunity to be the feature back.  At worst I think he'll be in the game 60% of the time.  At best, maybe 80%.  Either way, I think we'll be looking at numbers closer to 2011 rather than last season.  For that reason, I still think he's going too late in drafts, and I also think he's a good Redeem Team candidate.

It's only fitting that I end yet another article with Ryan Mathews.  I just can't seem to shake him.  No defense or kicker on the Redeem Team.  I thought about including the Texans for both, but it's not even really worth writing about.  It just doesn't really fit the format.  I'll get an updated rankings out later this week.  Til next time, fantasy footballers!


Cheers,
Bart

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings v2.2

I think I have a serious case of post-draft boredom, at least when it comes to fantasy football and my blogging.  Now that it's over, I don't feel as compelled to scrutinize my rankings on a daily (or even weekly) basis.  We're officially 2 WEEKS away from the start of the NFL season, and I'm just ready to watch some football and get this fantasy season going!

But I might have another league to get ready for...sort of.  I say "sort of" because it's a pretty casual, co-ed league with my friends.  Some of them follow the NFL, while others are just doing the fantasy thing for fun.  And honestly, that's why I continue to do this league too: fun.  Otherwise, I really try to limit my fantasy leagues to just the one, but that's pretty tough.  And fantasy football is fun, so I do this league strictly for that reason...and I don't need to do much more preparing because I'll just wing it (and I've already had a practice round!).

Speaking of fun, my draft weekend had plenty to go around.  We watched scary movies, played Guesstures, got in the hot tub....wait a second.  That stuff did happen, but it gives the wrong impression.  We ALSO ate copious amounts of meat, chopped down trees, went to breweries, made fire, and of course: we drafted.

Dinner's ready!  Thanks, Joey.

I'm going to go ahead and give another update on my rankings, with just a few notes on guys who I've moved up and down since my own draft.  I'll also put notes next to guys in BOLD who I ended up drafting myself, with maybe more than just a short sentence or two about each of them.  I want you to understand a little more behind each pick.  I didn't want to write too much about my draft strategy before last weekend, but now who cares?  I mean, people will forget before next year, right? Also, the keepers in my league remain in italics, mainly because it helps me keep my own rankings straight.  Keep an eye out for another article or two before the Denver/Baltimore Thursday night kickoff, and I'll be sure to get my Week One rankings in early that week!

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Doug Martin

3. Ray Rice

4. Jamaal Charles

5. Marshawn Lynch

6. Arian Foster: Concerned with him still not practicing, even though he says he doesn't need preseason...

7. LeSEAN McCOY: I had the 6th position in my draft, and the RBs I have above McCoy in my rankings all came off the board (in a little different order than I have them above).  So McCoy was my pick, and I'm fine with it.

8. Calvin Johnson

9. CJ Spiller

10. Alfred Morris

11. Jimmy Graham

12. AJ Green

13. Steven Jackson

14. Trent Richardson

15. Stevan Ridley

16. Maurice Jones-Drew

17. Matt Forte

18. Drew Brees

19. Aaron Rodgers

20. Brandon Marshall

21. Dez Bryant

22. Chris Johnson

23. REGGIE BUSH: I didn't think Reggie would still be on the board here, but he was.  I already drafted McCoy and have Mathews as a keeper, but I couldn't pass up the value with Bush here.  A great pass-catching RB in that Detroit offense is a match made in heaven.  So far, no WRs on my team though...

24. Peyton Manning

25. Frank Gore

26. Julio Jones

27. Demaryius Thomas

28. Larry Fitzgerald

29. (Cam Newton: My #1 keeper, just highlighting here in bold so you can see my full squad.)

30. DeMarco Murray

31. Lamar Miller

32. Darren McFadden

33. Randall Cobb

34: Roddy White

35. Andre Johnson

36. Tom Brady

37. Rob Gronkowski

38. Victor Cruz

39. Vincent Jackson

40. Marques Colston

41. Eddie Lacy: This guy went early in the 3rd (keeper) round in my draft, and I think he'll be worth it.

42. David Wilson

43. Darren Sproles

44. Chris Ivory

45. Rashard Mendenhall

46. Montee Ball

47. Dwayne Bowe

48. TORREY SMITH: Lamar Miller was still on the board in Round 3 of my draft, but I already had 3 RBs on my team.  I struggled with this one a lot because I didn't want to wait too much longer to get a #1 WR who I liked.  I reached a little for Torrey Smith, but ultimately I'm happy with it.  Lamar Miller is unproven, and I needed to pick up a WR before it got too late.

49. Danny Amendola

50. Hakeem Nicks

51. (Ryan Mathews: My #2 keeper)

52. Ahmad Bradshaw

53. Jason Witten

54. RGIII

55. Matt Ryan

56. Reggie Wayne

57. Wes Welker

58. Jordy Nelson

59. Steve Smith

60. Antonio Brown

61. Pierre Garcon

62. CECIL SHORTS: Wide receivers were coming off the board fast, and I wanted to get another one.  Why not the guy who I was considering as my #2 keeper?  My team is shaping up to look a lot like last year's squad.  I hope these boys have matured a little bit in real life...

63. Vernon Davis

64. SHANE VEREEN: Any time you have picks from your rankings that are this close together, it's a good thing.  I thought Vereen would be gone at this point, but he was still there.  At this point in the draft, I'm basically taking the best available WR or RB, and Vereen could end up flexing as both this year.  He's exactly who I wanted here in the 5th round.

65. Andre Brown

66. Giovani Bernard

67. Eric Decker

68. James Jones

69. TY Hilton

70. Mike Wallace

71. Tony Gonzalez

72. Colin Kaepernick

73. Russell Wilson

74. Andrew Luck

75. Matthew Stafford

76. Tony Romo

77. Ronnie Hillman

78. Benjarvis Green-Ellis

79. Daryl Richardson

80. DeAngelo Williams

81. Vick Ballard

82. DeSean Jackson

83. Tavon Austin

84. SIDNEY RICE: This was my first uncomfortable pick of the draft.  Vick Ballard was still on the board, but I was liking my RBs at this point.  I wasn't ready to jump on a TE yet, so I thought I'd better snatch up another WR.  The problem is that I'm not sure if Rice is the #1 WR in Seattle.  A lot of people think Golden Tate will make that leap this year.  I'm not one of those people, so I stuck to my guns (and my rankings).  I went with Rice.  We'll see if I picked the right Seahawk.

85. Eli Manning

86. Andy Dalton

87. Miles Austin

88. Steve Johnson

89. Greg Jennings

90. Anquan Boldin

91. Lance Moore

92. Mike Williams

93. Vincent Brown

94. Denarius Moore

95. Greg Olsen

96. JERMICHAEL FINLEY: Greg Olsen flew off the board at the end of the 6th round, so I started thinking about tight end.  The crazy thing is, I have Pettigrew ranked next and he went undrafted.  Needless to say, I think I reached a little bit to get the TE I wanted.  I didn't want to reach on Sudfeld or Cameron later, which I would have had to do.  I felt more comfortable getting Finley here.

97. Brandon Pettigrew

98. Mark Ingram

99. Bryce Brown

100. Bernard Pierce

101. Ben Tate

102. LeVeon Bell: Still not sure just how serious the injury is, but Dwyer and Redman should get early action.

103. Golden Tate

104. MICHAEL FLOYD: So Floyd wasn't my 8th round pick.  He was my 9th rounder.  I hate to say it, but I think Hard Knocks is getting the best of me.  The Seahawks, Niners, and Texans all were drafted in the 7th or 8th round.  So I'm sitting there already considering a defense?!?  Normally I wouldn't do this, but I think the 8% beers might've been getting to me a little bit.  That, and my love for the HBO television series.  To be fair, I liked the Bengals as my #6 defense in my June rankings, so I already regarded them highly.  But after watching a couple episodes of Hard Knocks this year, they started moving up my board even further.  A healthy James Harrison usually means good things for a fantasy defense.  We'll see if they end up being like my Bills pick last year or like a Ravens pick before they became a dominant force in the NFL.  As for Michael Floyd, he was the best available on my board in the 9th round.  After reaching for a defense so early, I wanted to stick with my list for at least my next pick...or so.

105. Emmanuel Sanders

106. KENBRELL THOMPKINS: This was an audible at the line of scrimmage.  I was all set to take Aaron Dobson here, at least until I started reading on Twitter the weekend of my draft that it's Thompkins (not Dobson) who's been running with the first team during preseason games.  Of course, this could be meaningless as everyone's just trying to get a leg up on who Tom Brady's favorite target will be this season.  But at this point in my draft, a hype pick on a high-powered offense felt OK.

107. DeAndre Hopkins

108. Chris Givens

109. Jonathan Dwyer: Still have him ranked below Bell, but only because this is a keeper league.

110. Danny Woodhead

111. Fred Jackson

112. Johnathan Franklin

113. Isaiah Pead

114. Kenny Britt

115. Josh Gordon

116. Owen Daniels

117. Kyle Rudolph

118. Jordan Cameron

119. Ryan Broyles

120. Jonathan Stewart

121. Shonn Greene

122. Jacquizz Rodgers

123. Michael Bush

124. Roy Helu

125. Montario Hardesty

126. Alshon Jeffery

127. CORDARELLE PATTERSON: This was another hype machine pick, but it was also my last pick of the draft.  That's right.  I didn't even draft a kicker (more on that below).  I did take a chance on Patterson, but I've since dropped him.  With Le'Veon Bell's potential Lisfranc injury, I hit the waiver wire and dropped Cordarelle for Jonathan Dwyer.

128. Kendall Wright

129. Brian Hartline

130. Fred Davis

131. Zach Sudfeld: Gronk could be out a while, and Sudfeld could get a lot of early looks in New England.

132. Justin Forsett

133. Toby Gerhart

134. Mikel Leshoure

135. Knile Davis

136. Kendall Hunter

137. Joseph Randle

138. Stepfan Taylor

139. Peyton Hillis

140. Marcel Reece

141. Robert Turbin

142. Isaac Redman

143. Daniel Thomas

144. Bilal Powell

145. Seahawks DEFENSE

146. 49ers DEFENSE

147. BENGALS DEFENSE: The Hard Knocks love has probably gone too far, but I don't care.  If this is wrong I don't want to be right!  With a Week 12 BYE, I'm planning to plug the Bengals D in every week and not even have to worry about it until a point in the fantasy season when I'll have a better idea of whether or not I'm even a playoff contender.

148. Bears DEFENSE

149. Texans DEFENSE

150. Broncos DEFENSE

151. Ravens DEFENSE

152. Rams DEFENSE

153. Patriots DEFENSE

154. Cardinals DEFENSE

155. Giants DEFENSE

156. Falcons DEFENSE

157. Stephen Gostkowski

158. Dan Bailey

159. Matt Bryant

160. Matt Prater

161. Justin Tucker

162. Blair Walsh

163. Sebastian Janikowski

164. Phil Dawson

165. Greg Zuerlein

166. Randy Bullock

167. Kai Forbath

168. David Akers


A few more guys to consider on draft day...

QBs

Josh Freeman

Sam Bradford

Ben Roethlisberger

Michael Vick

Ryan Tannehill

TEs

Martellus Bennett

Jared Cook

Brandon Myers Rob Housler Antonio Gates

RBs (FREE AGENTS) Michael Turner Beanie Wells Ryan Grant Cedric Benson Willis McGahee

WRs Justin Blackmon

Malcom Floyd

Darrius Heyward Bey

Brandon LaFell

WR EAGLES Markus Wheaton Robert Woods Aaron Dobson Reuben Randle Brandon Lloyd (FREE AGENT) IR (keeper stashes)

Percy Harvin Jeremy Maclin Denario Alexander Marcus Lattimore Dennis Pitta MICHAEL CRABTREE: This was not even the last round of my draft.  In Round 9, someone drafted Percy Harvin.  This got me thinking about getting an IR stash of my own.  So in Round 11, I took Crabtree.  He hasn't officially been placed on the IR, but he should before the first game of the year...and that's plenty of time for me to pick up a kicker.  I can use the extra IR position that our league allows and then fill Crabtree's slot with whoever is available on the waiver wire.  It may be a guy who I want or it may not.  I don't really care.  If I need to stream kickers all year, that's not a problem.  As for Crabtree, I don't even care if he comes back this year or not.  He could be a decent keeper in 2014... Cheers, Bart

2013 Fantasy Football Rankings v2.1

With my league draft this Saturday, it's getting down to crunch time for me and I feel like I'm cramming for final exams this week.  I'm reading as many fantasy football articles as I can get my hands on, and all the while, it seems like guys are tearing their ACLs just about every day and it's making me nervous to draft anyone at all!

But I need to calm down...

I need to focus on fine-tuning my rankings and get ready for the draft.  Because for me, the rankings help me remain calm on draft day.  I put in the effort up front so I'm (hopefully) not scrambling to decide between the Darrens (McFadden or Sproles), the Moores (Lance or Denarius), or the Mannings (ha! yeah right!!!).  And maybe I'll be wrong if I draft McFadden over Sproles, but I've at least taken the time to think about it and adjust my rankings accordingly.

This will be my last (posted) update before my draft, so I've spent as much time on this version as any other...maybe more.  I've tried to pick a clear #2 handcuff for each running back, even though it's not clear yet who those guys will be.  That's the risk of doing a draft before Labor Day, but oh well.  Everyone else in the league is on the same playing field, and those late rounders can be a crapshoot anyway.  We also declared our keepers last Saturday, so I've indicated those players with italics.  Enough jibba jabba.  Let's get into my last rankings update...until next week, of course.

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Doug Martin

3. Arian Foster

4. Ray Rice

5. Jamaal Charles

6. Marshawn Lynch

7. LeSean McCoy

8. Calvin Johnson

9. CJ Spiller

10. Alfred Morris

11. Jimmy Graham

12. AJ Green

13. Steven Jackson

14. Trent Richardson

15. Stevan Ridley

16. Maurice Jones-Drew: Last year I counted on a healthy AP, and that paid off. Same thing now with MJD.

17. Matt Forte

18. Drew Brees

19. Aaron Rodgers: Bulaga lost to an ACL injury, Jordy's bum knee, rookie RBs...Coin flip goes to Brees.

20. Brandon Marshall

21. Dez Bryant

22. Chris Johnson

23. Reggie Bush

24. Peyton Manning

25. Frank Gore

26. Julio Jones: Moving him down slightly. Just value RBs a little more this early in a draft.

27. Demaryius Thomas

28. Larry Fitzgerald

29. Cam Newton

30. DeMarco Murray: Moving him and McFadden both down below a WR tier & Cam.

31. Lamar Miller: It feels strange ranking someone so unproven this high, but it also feels right...

32. Darren McFadden: Drops down below Murray and Miller. More concerned with injury with him.

33. Randall Cobb: Moved above "old timers" Roddy and Andre. Much more upside here.

34: Roddy White

35. Andre Johnson

36. Tom Brady

37. Rob Gronkowski

38. Victor Cruz

39. Vincent Jackson: Realized I like him about as much as Victor Cruz, so moved down accordingly.

40. Marques Colston

41. LeVeon Bell: Now in keeper territory, need to bump up this rookie who could be the workhorse.

42. David Wilson

43. Darren Sproles: Mentioning Sean Payton being back in another article got me thinking more about Sproles.

44. Chris Ivory

45. Rashard Mendenhall: Ryan Williams still on crutches.  Heavy workload is his if healthy.

46. Montee Ball: Also moved up slightly, mostly for keeper potential in my league.

47. Dwayne Bowe

48. Torrey Smith: Not sure why, but the moves the Ravens are making have me liking Torrey more.

49. Danny Amendola

50. Hakeem Nicks

51. Ryan Mathews: San Diego WRs are getting injured left and right. Maybe will rely more on RBs...?

52. Eddie Lacy: Moving up with Mathews.  Again, mostly for keeper potential here, but some for this year too.

53. Ahmad Bradshaw: Chuck Pagano called him an "every down back". Gotta move him up to at least here.

54. Jason Witten

55. RGIII

56. Matt Ryan

57. Reggie Wayne

58. Wes Welker: Moved him down slightly.  My love for Welker might've been a little much.

59. Jordy Nelson: Moving down with Wes to this WR tier, near some of the old guys.

60. Steve Smith

61. Antonio Brown

62. Pierre Garcon

63. Cecil Shorts

64. Vernon Davis

65. Shane Vereen

66. Andre Brown

67. Giovani Bernard

68. Eric Decker

69. James Jones

70. TY Hilton

71. Mike Wallace

72. Tony Gonzalez: Moving back down. No training camp and being old could have him off to a slow start.

73. Colin Kaepernick: Moving all of these QBs down about 10 spots. Would rather have W/R first.

74. Russell Wilson

75. Andrew Luck

76. Matthew Stafford

77. Tony Romo

78. Ronnie Hillman

79. Benjarvis Green-Ellis

80. Daryl Richardson: Should be the starter for the Rams Week 1...and maybe beyond that.

81. DeAngelo Williams: Same goes for DeAngelo in Carolina, and a scheme with less shotguns.

82. Vick Ballard: I love Ballard, but lowering due to potentially limited opportunity (at least early on).

83. DeSean Jackson

84. Tavon Austin

85. Sidney Rice: Down slightly. Still unclear who will benefit most from no Harvin: Rice or Tate.

86. Eli Manning

87. Andy Dalton

88. Miles Austin

89. Steve Johnson

90. Greg Jennings

91. Anquan Boldin

92. Lance Moore: Moved up a little bit. A boring pick but will get you points every week.

93. Mike Williams

94. Vincent Brown: This might be too high or it might not be high enough. I think it's about right.

95. Denarius Moore

96. Greg Olsen

97. Jermichael Finley: I think he'll bounce back this year. Need to start thinking TE in top 100.

98. Brandon Pettigrew: Moved him up too. Detroit's pass-heavy offense will get him 100 targets.

99. Mark Ingram

100. Bryce Brown

101. Bernard Pierce

102. Ben Tate

103. Golden Tate

104. Michael Floyd

105. Emmanuel Sanders

106. Aaron Dobson

107. DeAndre Hopkins

108. Chris Givens: Looked good in first preseason game.  Might have bigger year than rookie Austin.

109. Danny Woodhead

110. Fred Jackson

111. Johnathan Franklin

112. Isaiah Pead

113. Kenny Britt: Basically swapped him with Givens in my rankings.  Britt has hard time staying healthy.

114. Josh Gordon

115. Owen Daniels

116. Antonio Gates

117. Kyle Rudolph

118. Ryan Broyles

119. WR EAGLES: Still have 3 or 4 candidates here. Come draft day, might have to avoid altogether.

120. Jonathan Stewart

121. Shonn Greene

122. Jacquizz Rodgers

123. Michael Bush

124. Roy Helu: Moved up further. I think he is clear #2 RB behind Alfred Morris.

125. Montario Hardesty

126. Alshon Jeffery: Considered moving Malcom Floyd to the list, but he strained his knee. Jeffery will do.

127. Cordarelle Patterson

128. Kendall Wright

129. Brian Hartline

130. Fred Davis

131. Jared Cook

132. Justin Forsett

133. Toby Gerhart

134. Mikel Leshoure: Joique Bell apparently looks great in camp, but I'd still handcuff Reggie with Leshoure.

135. Knile Davis: If Charles injury an issue, Davis should get shot over veteran Draughn.

136. Kendall Hunter: Off the PUP list, I think he's the one to have over LaMichael James.

137. Joseph Randle: The other guys have had their shot. Now it's Randle's turn when Murray gets hurt.

138. Stepfan Taylor: With all of the other RBs in Arizona banged up, they could give this rookie a chance.

139. Peyton Hillis: Mike James is probably a year away, and Brian Leonard is very average.

140. Marcel Reece: I'm going to say he's the guy who will produce if/when McFadden gets injured.

141. Robert Turbin: The clear backup for now, but rookie Christine Michael could beat him out if Lynch goes down.

142. Isaac Redman: Probably the best of three mediocre handcuff RBs in Pittsburgh.

143. Daniel Thomas: Still the best shot at starting gig at some point this season, not rookie Gillislee.

144. Bilal Powell: Mike Goodson still hasn't been at training camp. Powell should backup Ivory.

145. Seahawks DEFENSE

146. 49ers DEFENSE

147. Bears DEFENSE

148. Texans DEFENSE

149. Bengals DEFENSE

150. Broncos DEFENSE

151. Ravens DEFENSE

152. Rams DEFENSE: I think team improves overall , and late bye (week 11) doesn't hurt.

153. Patriots DEFENSE

154. Cardinals DEFENSE

155. Giants DEFENSE

156. Falcons DEFENSE: Removed Packers due to early bye week (4). Try to keep transactions low early.

157. Stephen Gostkowski

158. Dan Bailey

159. Matt Bryant

160. Matt Prater

161. Justin Tucker

162. Blair Walsh

163. Sebastian Janikowski

164. Phil Dawson

165. Greg Zuerlein

166. Randy Bullock

167. Kai Forbath

168. David Akers: Replaces Bironas. The veteran has been dealing with back issues. Not worth the worry.


A few more guys I'll be considering on draft day...

QBs

Josh Freeman

Sam Bradford

Ben Roethlisberger

Michael Vick

Ryan Tannehill

Carson Palmer Joe Flacco

Matt Schaub

TEs

Martellus Bennett

Jordan Cameron

Brandon Myers Rob Housler Dustin Keller

RBs (FREE AGENTS) Michael Turner Beanie Wells Ryan Grant Cedric Benson Willis McGahee

WRs Justin Blackmon

Malcom Floyd

Darrius Heyward Bey

Brandon LaFell

AJ Jenkins Markus Wheaton Robert Woods Kenbrell Thompkins Reuben Randle Brandon Lloyd (FREE AGENT) IR (keeper stashes)

Percy Harvin Jeremy Maclin Michael Crabtree Denario Alexander Dennis Pitta Marcus Lattimore Cheers, Bart

7 Reasons to Pay Attention to Preseason This Year

7's the key number here. Think about it...

Last year, I gave you 7 reasons to read training camp notes and watch these glorified scrimmages they call preseason games.  I think that must have been an arbitrary number based on how much I could think of to write at the time.  I don't really know.  Maybe I was channeling my inner hitchhiker from Something About Mary.  Even though 7 doesn't seem like enough with all of the story lines to pay attention to, I'm sticking with it.  7, man...SEVEN!  Let's get right to it, shall we?

1. The New England Patriots.  I don't like the Patriots any more than you do, but when it comes to drafting a fantasy football team, you need to pay attention to them.  Tom Brady lost a lot of his toys in the offseason, but I don't see him crying about it (not yet anyway).  Danny Amendola is the obvious choice to step in and have a big year, but how much will he actually be on the field?  In his four year career, he's played one full season, and he's accumulated a grand total of 7 touchdowns.  Granted, he hasn't been playing with Tom Brady until now.  So if he is healthy, you have to like his chances to find the endzone quite often.  But Brady will find other people to throw to.  The question is: Who will that be?  Will Gronk be healthy for Week 1?  Will rookie Aaron Dobson pick up the system quickly enough to have an instant impact?  Will one of their recent acquisitions (Tuinei or Haggerty) make the squad and have Brady turn them into an instant sensation? Would the Pats consider bringing back a guy like Brandon Lloyd?  I have lots of questions, and I doubt Belichick will answer all of them before my league's draft.

Is that a pop warner size football...?

2. Battles for the #2 WR position.  Speaking of who will be the #2 WR in New England, let's talk about some other camp battles to keep an eye on.  There are too many to mention here, but my favorite has to be Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts in Arizona.  With a decent QB finally in town, I think the receivers in the desert can finally get back to putting up some respectable numbers.  We all expect Fitzgerald to get his, but is 2012 1st round pick Michael Floyd ready to take the next step?  A couple of others with a little NFL experience are Ryan Broyles in Detroit and Vincent Brown in San Deigo.  Both have had injuries early on in their NFL careers, but both could make some noise if they're finally healthy this year.  Especially now with Alexander's season-ending injury, Brown could even elevate to the #1 WR in San Diego.  I'm also keeping an eye on the Texans rookie DeAndre Hopkins.  Apparently he's been impressive early in training camp, and I'm not just talking about his size 3XL receiver gloves (but that too).  This is a guy who had over 1400 yards and hauled in 18 TDs in his last season at Clemson, and if he's already making people turn heads in early August, I'm paying attention too.

Soccer mom? Nope. Giovani Bernard!

3. Rookie RBs.  After last season, everyone is going to want to find the next Doug Martin.  Wait a second.  Did you just start playing fantasy football?  Does anyone remember Adrian Peterson's rookie season?  What about Clinton Portis?  I'll refresh your memory on Clinton's 2002 rookie numbers: 1508 rushing yards, 364 receiving yards, 17 total TDs!  I realize the Muscle Hamster had a great season, but let's not forget the great rookies of fantasy football past.  Try to find other amazing rookie RB numbers in the last 10 seasons, and you're going to come up empty.  So it's tough to find that next big rookie running back season, especially since it's likely to not even happen.  But in a keeper league, patience is a virtue.  I'm not sure LeVeon Bell will have rookie numbers like Martin, AP, or Portis.  But he'll probably perform well enough to merit more than a mid-round pick.  With the Packers selecting both Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin in this year's draft, I'll be closely monitoring their usage in the preseason.  Another rookie who could have an instant impact is Montee Ball.  Ronnie Hillman appears to be the starter, but Ball could at minimum get goal line work on a team that will be in a red zone a LOT.  And my personal favorite (especially after watching the first episode of Hard Knocks this week) is Giovani Bernard.  He's the best rookie in the best situation, and the coaches have already hinted at a 50/50 split this season with The Law Firm.  The wife and I will be monitoring his progress closely on HBO.

4. Top RBs with health concerns.  Let's keep the running back talk going because that's a lot of what I'm paying attention to in the preseason.  MJD is coming off a Lisfranc injury, so you'll want to see how he's moving in camp if you plan on using a 2nd round pick on the guy.  Perennial gimps Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray are also potential 2nd or 3rd round picks, depending on how many gambling types are in your draft.  I'll be keeping an eye on both in the preseason just to make sure they're not already dinged up.  If "healthy", I'm still not sure I waste a 2nd round pick on either, but maybe 3rd.  I wouldn't call Ahmad Bradshaw a "Top RB", but he fits into this category as much as McFadden and Murray do.  In addition to Bradshaw being with a new team, I'm sure he'll continue to battle his chronic foot issues (for which he most recently had surgery back in January).  He's already landed on the PUP list with the Colts, but he isn't expected to start the regular season there.  His 1-year contract is highly incentive-based (mainly per game roster bonuses), so Indy doesn't have a ton invested in the veteran.  I'll be curiously watching those feet of his because I think Vick Ballard could take hold of the opportunity if it's given to him.

You're a starter now, David.  Maybe take it easy on the celebrations.

5. David Wilson & Andre Brown.  More running backs!  Hey, it's a valuable position in fantasy football.  You need to pay attention to these preseason battles, although this one seems more like a friendly fight.  People are already comparing these guys to Bradshaw and Jacobs, aka Thunder and Lightning.  And while I'm pretty sure Ron Dayne and Tiki Barber had that nickname first for the G-Men, it seems to be a theme for the RBs there.   Andre Brown scored a TD in just about every game he played last year before breaking his leg, and he averaged over 5 yards/carry while doing so.  It sounds like David Wilson is going to be given a chance at the "starting job" now that Bradshaw is gone, but I'm not sure what that means.  When the Giants released their first official depth chart, it listed both running backs as starters.  Either Tom Coughlin is growing senile or he's just making it crystal clear that this is a true 50/50 timeshare.  Bottom line: both of these backs have value in that offense, and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out in the preseason and into the real games.

6. Teams with New Coaches.  Sure, I'll be checking out the new-look offenses of the Chiefs and Eagles under new coaches Andy Reid and Chip Kelly, respectively.  But those are the easy ones.  What about the new head coach in Chicago, Marc Trestman?  I'm always going to be low on Cutler, but Brandon Marshall will definitely continue to produce.  Meanwhile, Matt Forte may not only continue to put up solid numbers, but he may increase production with this new spread offense (especially in the passing game).  Another coach with a new team who is a little more under the radar is Bruce Arians out in Arizona.  This is a guy who aired it out last year with Andrew Luck, and now has Carson Palmer throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and company.  As I mentioned above, I'll be watching the progression of Michael Floyd in the preseason, and I might reach to make sure I get him if Palmer is connecting with him early on.  Keep in mind that Arians coached Mendenhall when they were both with the Steelers, and he's been giving him high praise as an every down running back.  All the while, backup Ryan Williams is still on crutches.  One final "new" coach that no one seems to be talking about is Sean Payton, who...uh...took a year off.  Well, Payton was there in 2011 when the Saints drafted Mark Ingram in the first round.  I don't think his utilization (or lack therof) last year was his choice, and it'll be interesting to see how the RBs get used in New Orleans this season.  Heck, it'll be interesting to see what the Saints offense is capable of now that Sean Payton is the play caller again!

7. RGIII. Obviously, this one is personal.  I've now been up to training camp three times, and it's been really cool seeing the Redskins get ready for the 2013 season.  My most recent trip was last Saturday, which was Fan Appreciation Day.  It was nuts.  There were around 25,000 people there, many of whom were trying to get whatever autographs they could after practice.  Once the horn blew, the players started throwing footballs into the crowd, and then they dispersed around the fence line to sign autographs for fans.  Pictured below is an aerial shot of the horde around RGIII.  Needless to say, I was content with a photo.  I wasn't trying to break my neck for a dude's signature.  I just don't see the point for a grown ass man to do that, but many others do see whatever point that is I guess.  

Anyway, I'll just leave you with that parting shot.  I'll be trying to keep tabs on all of the preseason activity, but my top priority with always be the Redskins.  Preseason starts tonight against the Titans, and I'll be watching!  #HTTR

Cheers,
Bart