Keeper Dilemma: Ryan Mathews vs. Hilton / Shorts

If you've read any of my articles, you probably know that I'm in a keeper league.  But this isn't a league where you can keep whoever you want.  Oh, there are rules...basically 3 around who you can/cannot keep:

1. You can only keep two players, who need to be on your final roster from the previous season.
2. You cannot keep a player if he is drafted in the first 2 rounds in that previous season's draft.
3. You can only keep a player two additional seasons (after the original season you have him).

I know to keep Cam, but who else?  Maybe this kid can help.

When I evaluate my squad from last season, I have one obvious keeper: Cam Newton.  The crazy thing is, no one even drafted Cam two years ago when he was a rookie.  In fact, I remember watching a game with my buddy and him saying "You better not rush to the waiver wire and pick him up!"  And I had no intention of doing so.  After week 1 or 2, I thought he'd be somewhere between mediocre and a flash in the pan.  Last year, I acquired him in a trade and he's now my best keeper (but only for this season). He'll go back into the player pool for the 2014 draft.


So that's one of my keepers.  Simple, right?  Well my #2 keeper isn't nearly as cut and dry.  I basically have three options:

1. Ryan Mathews
2. Cecil Shorts
3. T.Y. Hilton

Let's start with what I see as the bottom and work our way up, shall we?

T.Y. Hilton

You're probably thinking my 2013 team is in trouble if I'm considering Hilton as one of my keepers, much less the other two.  But I was pleasantly surprised as a Hilton owner last season, and his outlook this year has only improved.  Donnie Avery is out and Darrius Heyward Bey is in.  Heyward Bey has been known as a pass dropper, and he already has a knee injury in camp.  Hilton could jump right into that #2 WR position with a QB who already is one of the next big things in the NFL.  The problem is, Hilton's not a natural split wideout.  The guy is listed at 5'9" 178 pounds.  I'm pretty sure I dated a girl bigger than that at one point (hey, it was college!).  He'll most likely fit into the slot position, but he still could get around 100 targets.  With his speed, he could turn those looks into some big fantasy numbers in 2013 and beyond.

But I'm not sure I'm sold on him...

Cecil Shorts IV with dad's helmet on.

Cecil Shorts
Now here's a guy who looks the part of a #1 WR.  At 6'0" 202 pounds, Shorts is much closer to the prototypical size for a wideout.  I love his story: not highly recruited out of high school, fought for an NFL roster spot, and has now become arguably the best player on his team.  Granted, that's not saying much for the Jags.  And that's the problem.  If Cecil Shorts had Andrew Luck throwing to him, I'd keep him in a heartbeat...especially since my WR options are new keepers (whereas Mathews is in his last year of eligibility, but I'll get to that).  But he has Blaine Gabbert under center for his team, with Chad Henne waiting in the wings for when Gabbert inevitably gets pulled for injury or general suckiness.  This makes it tough to choose between the two WR options I have, even though most experts have Shorts ranked much higher in their preseason rankings.


Which brings me to my final choice...

Ryan Mathews
I drafted Mathews in the 5th round in 2011, and he had the best year of his short career.  He gained over 1500 total yards and found the endzone 6 times.  Not bad for a second year guy who still had Mike Tolbert there (and who vultured 10 TDs himself!).  So going into the 2012 season, of course I kept the former 12th overall pick out of Fresno State.  But last season was frustrating.  Mathews didn't even get to 1000 total yards, and he only hit paydirt once...ONE touchdown all season!  Now, the guy did break his clavicle on the first play of preseason last year, so he was probably a little slower at the beginning coming back from that.  But I don't want to make excuses for him.  If you look at his game log, it looks like he got worse as the season progressed, not better!

And even after saying all of that, I still  think I'm taking him as my #2 keeper yet again this year.  And the main reason?  He's a running back.  And running backs are valuable.  If you look at my rankings, I have Mathews well ahead of Shorts or Hilton.  Even if Woodhead gets all of the 3rd down touches, I still don't think they bring in Ronnie Brown for goal line work.  Mathews is a big running back.  He should be able to handle some carries close to the endzone.  Ultimately, I think he'll end up with 60% or so of the workload.  To me, that's worth keeping him over one of the receivers.  I'll get a top RB early and I feel like I can wait a little longer on WRs.  Mathews may even end up being a flex if i go RB/RB.

But I digress...

Remember all of that promise...?

Whoever I end up keeping, I'll be able to draft any one of the others into the mid rounds if I still really want them.  All could potentially be keepers in 2014 and beyond, so that's not much of a factor.  The other main reason I'm keeping Mathews I've already alluded to: my rankings.  Last season I did weekly rankings, and I tried to stick to them myself.  But it's tough.  This year I'm going to try to take even more time to put together my preseason and weekly rankings, and I'm not just going to use them as a guide but as a reference that will help me decide who to draft or who to start/sit once we get into the regular season.  We have to declare keepers by this Saturday, and right now Mathews is ahead of the others in my rankings.  So it looks like I'll have him for one more year...

Cheers,
Bart