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| Who else is ready for some Endless Shrimp...? |
With college football kicking off this week, we get a nice little appetizer to hold us over until the main course, which of course is the NFL. I'm going to provide you with a nice little sampler myself, with this year's edition of the Fantasy Redeem Team. I'm talking chicken wings, potato skins, and maybe even some bang bang shrimp. You're getting it all. Mmmmmm...just mentioning shrimp has my mouth watering...
If you read this article last year, you know what this is all about. To the first timers, here's the deal. I'm going to give you a team who is ready to atone for their 2012 fantasy sins. These are players who underperformed based on their draft day value, and I'm ignoring players who missed a considerable amount of time due to injury. So you won't see guys like Rashard Mendenhall or Maurice Jones-Drew. What I am creating is a team of guys who had a pretty high 2012 ADP versus how they finished the season. This could also be seen as a 2012 Hindsight All-Hype Team.
The 2012 team featured guys who I was spot on with (like Mike Williams and Reggie Wayne), but I was also way off on players like Brandon Lloyd and Antonio Gates. They can't all be winners, but it's a fun exercise nonetheless. I feel like this year's squad looks a lot stronger than last year's, as there were several top performers who just seemed to fall off in 2012. But I feel like all of these guys have the potential for a serious bounce-back year, and I'll tell you why.
Below you'll find each player's 2011 stats, 2012 stats, my bold projected 2013 stats for them, 2012 ADP vs. 2013 ADP (roughly), and where I have each ranked in my personal rankings. Get ready to get overloaded with numbers!
QB: Eli Manning
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 4933 Pass Yds, 29 Pass TDs, 16 INTs, 1 Rush TD
2012 Stats: 16 GP, 3948 Pass Yds, 26 Pass TDs, 15 INTs, 0 Rush TD
2012 Stats: 16 GP, 3948 Pass Yds, 26 Pass TDs, 15 INTs, 0 Rush TD
My 2013 Projection: 16 GP, 4500 Pass
Yds, 28 Pass TDs, 18 INTs, 1 Rush TD
2012 ADP: 50
2013 ADP: 97
My rank: 85
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| Oh Eli's on SNL? Let me know when Peyton hosts again... |
In 2012, Eli was getting drafted ahead of his big brother (a crazy thought now knowing that Peyton would stay healthy all season). Speaking of staying healthy, Eli is the current Ironman in the NFL. And while he's still not even halfway to Favre's record, he has the highest active start streak going, so you know you can count on him suiting up week in and week out. A top-10 fantasy QB in 2011, he fell off slightly in 2012 (but was still top-15 at his position). This year the QB position is deep, and maybe that's why Eli is falling so much in drafts. But he still has top targets Cruz and Nicks, and Reuben Randle and Brandon Myers will help the passing game overall. David Wilson could also put up some good receiving yards out of the backfield, further padding Manning's 2013 numbers. I like the upside of some of the young guys like Wilson and Kaepernick (especially since they have wheels that Mannings just don't possess), but I'd also be fine waiting several more rounds and ending up with Eli as my starting QB. I think he'll return to top-10 form, and I like him a full round ahead of where he's going currently in drafts. I also like him to randomly flash those wheels (or lack thereof) and get a random rushing TD again this season. Why not?
RB: LeSean McCoy
2011 Stats: 15 GP, 1309 Rush Yds, 315 Rec Yds, 20 TDs
2012 Stats: 12 GP, 840 Rush Yds, 373 Rec Yds, 5 TDs
2012 Stats: 12 GP, 840 Rush Yds, 373 Rec Yds, 5 TDs
My 2013 Projection: 14 GP,
2012 ADP: 5
2013 ADP: 10
My rank: 7
So I'm sort of breaking my own rule here. Shady missed 4 games last year, but he played most of the season, so I'm including him on my 2013 Redeem Team. After a campaign with 20 total TDs, this is a guy who was an automatic first-rounder in drafts last year. But the Eagles struggled offensively, and McCoy's numbers suffered greatly. Maybe he was part of the problem, but I see it more as a result than a cause. I think Chip Kelly's offense may kickstart McCoy again, and I think he'll once again put up big numbers. I don't have LeSean projected to play a full season because he always seems to get a little banged up one way or another. But I think he's a lock to get over 1000 yards rushing, and I think his receiving numbers will be closer to his 2010 total (592) rather than his 2011 or 2012 numbers. I also think an average of about a TD/game is not out of the question.
So I'm sort of breaking my own rule here. Shady missed 4 games last year, but he played most of the season, so I'm including him on my 2013 Redeem Team. After a campaign with 20 total TDs, this is a guy who was an automatic first-rounder in drafts last year. But the Eagles struggled offensively, and McCoy's numbers suffered greatly. Maybe he was part of the problem, but I see it more as a result than a cause. I think Chip Kelly's offense may kickstart McCoy again, and I think he'll once again put up big numbers. I don't have LeSean projected to play a full season because he always seems to get a little banged up one way or another. But I think he's a lock to get over 1000 yards rushing, and I think his receiving numbers will be closer to his 2010 total (592) rather than his 2011 or 2012 numbers. I also think an average of about a TD/game is not out of the question.RB: Steven Jackson
2011 Stats: 15 GP, 1145 Rush Yds, 333 Rec Yds, 6 TDs
2012 Stats: 16 GP, 1042 Rush Yds, 321 Rec Yds, 4 TDs
2012 Stats: 16 GP, 1042 Rush Yds, 321 Rec Yds, 4 TDs
My 2013 Projection: 16 GP,
2012 ADP: 21
2013 ADP: 18
My rank: 13
Michael Turner had double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of his 5 seasons with the Falcons. Steven Jackson did it just once with the Rams. You can look at that as a function of Jackson not having a nose for the endzone, but you can also look at it as a Rams vs. Falcons thing. I'll choose the latter, as I think Jackson will continue the trend in Atlanta and produce double-digit TDs with no problem. He's also a lock at 1000+ rushing yards, as he's done it every season since his rookie year. The only thing fantasy experts seem to be worried about with Jackson is his age/health. Yes, he hit the dreaded 30 year old mark this summer (ancient for an NFL ball carrier), and he has a lot of tread on the tires with the Rams. If he was 27 or 28 with his new squad, he'd no doubt be a top-5 pick in every fantasy draft. But he's not. I'll let other people pass on him due to his age. If he's there in the 2nd round of your draft, jump on the old-timer.
Michael Turner had double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of his 5 seasons with the Falcons. Steven Jackson did it just once with the Rams. You can look at that as a function of Jackson not having a nose for the endzone, but you can also look at it as a Rams vs. Falcons thing. I'll choose the latter, as I think Jackson will continue the trend in Atlanta and produce double-digit TDs with no problem. He's also a lock at 1000+ rushing yards, as he's done it every season since his rookie year. The only thing fantasy experts seem to be worried about with Jackson is his age/health. Yes, he hit the dreaded 30 year old mark this summer (ancient for an NFL ball carrier), and he has a lot of tread on the tires with the Rams. If he was 27 or 28 with his new squad, he'd no doubt be a top-5 pick in every fantasy draft. But he's not. I'll let other people pass on him due to his age. If he's there in the 2nd round of your draft, jump on the old-timer.
WR: Dwayne Bowe
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 1159 Rec Yds, 5 TDs
2012 Stats: 13 GP, 801 Rec Yds, 3 TDs
2012 Stats: 13 GP, 801 Rec Yds, 3 TDs
My 2013 Projection: 16 GP, 1100 Rec Yds, 9 TDs
2012 ADP: 64
2013 ADP: 50
My rank: 47
Bowe's 2012 season was disappointing, ending with some broken ribs and missing the last 3 games of the season. Had he not missed those, he most likely would have had his third consecutive 1000+ yard season (and that was with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn throwing to him). This year, he gets a slight upgrade with Alex Smith tossing the pigskin. More importantly he gets an even larger upgrade with Andy Reid calling the plays (no pun intended). Reid's always featured a pass happy offense, and the Chiefs locked up and paid Bowe like he's a top-5 WR. I don't think he'll put up top-5 fantasy numbers at the position this year, but I do think he'll bounce back in a big way, assuming he stays healthy and plays 16 games. I'd take Bowe ahead someone like Reggie Wayne, who's currently getting drafted ahead of him in most leagues.
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| I hope no one invites coach Reid to Shrimpfest this year... |
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 1411 Rec Yds, 8 TDs
2012 Stats: 16 GP, 798 Rec Yds, 4 TDs
2012 Stats: 16 GP, 798 Rec Yds, 4 TDs
My 2013 Projection: 16 GP, 1200 Rec Yds, 11 TDs
2012 ADP: 22
2013 ADP: 30
My rank: 28
Another guy with a new QB and head coach, Fitzgerald is primed to return to his 2011 form. Carson Palmer hasn't had a #1 WR to throw to like Fitz since his Bengal days, but I'm sure he'll quickly remember what it's like to be able to just toss it up once you get near the endzone. The Cardinals will probably struggle with the running game and most likely will need to air it out as they play from behind in a growingly tough division. The QB and coach are upgrades for the passing game, and Larry looks to benefit a great deal from both.
TE: Jermichael FinleyAnother guy with a new QB and head coach, Fitzgerald is primed to return to his 2011 form. Carson Palmer hasn't had a #1 WR to throw to like Fitz since his Bengal days, but I'm sure he'll quickly remember what it's like to be able to just toss it up once you get near the endzone. The Cardinals will probably struggle with the running game and most likely will need to air it out as they play from behind in a growingly tough division. The QB and coach are upgrades for the passing game, and Larry looks to benefit a great deal from both.
2011 Stats: 16 GP, 767 Rec Yds, 8 TDs
2012 Stats: 16 GP, 667 Rec Yds, 2 TDs
2012 Stats: 16 GP, 667 Rec Yds, 2 TDs
My 2013 Projection: 16 GP, 900 Rec Yds, 9 TDs
2012 ADP: 65
2013 ADP: 97
My rank: 96
I usually don't pay too much attention to guys being in a contract year as a key indicator for fantasy numbers, but I'm making an exception for Jermichael this year. Coaches and teammates are praising the 6-5 250 lb tight end, saying he's having a great training camp. The guy sounds like he might be motivated to get a big pay day following this season, whether it's with the Packers or someone else. I'm just looking at it for this fantasy season, and I think he finally breaks out in a big way this year. Double-digit TDs are not out of the question, but I'll play it a little safer and say he hauls in nine. With Jordy Nelson on the mend and rookie RBs in the backfield, I'm hoping Rodgers will look to his tight end when they get into the red zone starting Week One. Early chemistry sometimes can be sustained throughout a season, especially at the TE position.
I usually don't pay too much attention to guys being in a contract year as a key indicator for fantasy numbers, but I'm making an exception for Jermichael this year. Coaches and teammates are praising the 6-5 250 lb tight end, saying he's having a great training camp. The guy sounds like he might be motivated to get a big pay day following this season, whether it's with the Packers or someone else. I'm just looking at it for this fantasy season, and I think he finally breaks out in a big way this year. Double-digit TDs are not out of the question, but I'll play it a little safer and say he hauls in nine. With Jordy Nelson on the mend and rookie RBs in the backfield, I'm hoping Rodgers will look to his tight end when they get into the red zone starting Week One. Early chemistry sometimes can be sustained throughout a season, especially at the TE position.
FLEX: Ryan Mathews
2011 Stats: 14 GP, 1091 Rush Yds, 455 Rec Yds, 6 TDs
2012 Stats: 12 GP, 707 Rush Yds, 252 Rec Yds, 1 TD
2012 Stats: 12 GP, 707 Rush Yds, 252 Rec Yds, 1 TD
My 2013 Projection: 14 GP,
2012 ADP: 20
2013 ADP: 68
My rank: 51
Coincidentally, Mathews is looking like he'll be my Flex option this season (or at least for Week 1). I feel like I've already written about him at length, so I don't want to spend too much more time here on him. He has been getting praise from coaches this preseason, and apparently his mindset has matured a bit. I highly doubt he'll play all 16 games this year, but when he's in there, he'll have every opportunity to be the feature back. At worst I think he'll be in the game 60% of the time. At best, maybe 80%. Either way, I think we'll be looking at numbers closer to 2011 rather than last season. For that reason, I still think he's going too late in drafts, and I also think he's a good Redeem Team candidate.
Coincidentally, Mathews is looking like he'll be my Flex option this season (or at least for Week 1). I feel like I've already written about him at length, so I don't want to spend too much more time here on him. He has been getting praise from coaches this preseason, and apparently his mindset has matured a bit. I highly doubt he'll play all 16 games this year, but when he's in there, he'll have every opportunity to be the feature back. At worst I think he'll be in the game 60% of the time. At best, maybe 80%. Either way, I think we'll be looking at numbers closer to 2011 rather than last season. For that reason, I still think he's going too late in drafts, and I also think he's a good Redeem Team candidate.
It's only fitting that I end yet another article with Ryan Mathews. I just can't seem to shake him. No defense or kicker on the Redeem Team. I thought about including the Texans for both, but it's not even really worth writing about. It just doesn't really fit the format. I'll get an updated rankings out later this week. Til next time, fantasy footballers!Cheers,
Bart
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