WHAT IF scenarios for all 32 teams

Over the last month or so, you've probably heard a ton of the same narratives if you're following people like me who write about fantasy football.  Maybe you catch a tidbit here and there that you haven't really heard yet, and that's what I'm going to try to focus on in this last preseason article.  I thought I was done writing this preseason, but I kept having these random thoughts pop into my head and it was way too much to tweet.

  

So here we are.  One more article before the season starts.  I'm going to give a "what if" scenario for each team that not many people are really talking about right now.  I'm not saying these things will all happen, but there's certainly a nonzero chance of them happening.  And I feel like for a lot of these, no one is really talking about them.  So here's some facetime for my random thoughts.  It's a long piece, so I've highlighted some text in BOLD for my "what if" take on each team.  I hope you enjoy!

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
If Josh Allen improves as a passer and continues to get a ton of rushing yards/TDs on the ground, his ceiling is a top-3 fantasy QB.  But that's not my focus here for the Bills.  Everyone expects them to be a run-first team with a low volume of plays, and that might be the case.  But if Allen is better, I think a big part of that could be because he now has Stefon Diggs to throw to.  John Brown had a solid 2019 season, and he could very well be solid again.  No one seems to want to draft Diggs, but this guy is a top-10 talent as far as wide receivers in the league.  The Bills traded their #22 overall pick in this year's draft to get Diggs (along with a couple more late rounders AND a 2021 4th rounder).  This dude is going to get the ball.  No one is talking up Diggs like he can be a WR1 this year, but he has that potential if Allen can get him the ball.

Miami Dolphins

What if DeVante Parker isn't the #1 WR on the Dolphins this season?  There are a few people talking up Preston Williams as a late round sleeper, but I doubt anyone has him all that close to Parker in their rankings.  If you actually look at what he did in his rookie season before tearing his ACL though, he had more targets than Parker.  In a small sample size of 8 games, Williams had 60 targets to Parker's 52 and the yards/TDs (and fantasy points!) were all super close.  It's not out of the realm of possibility that Preston Williams actually has a better fantasy season than DeVante Parker in 2020.

New England Patriots
What if Sony Michel isn't done playing football?  Everyone has been talking up Damien Harris as a sleeper (again!), and people are pointing to the Lamar Miller signing as an indication that Sony might be too banged up to carry any sort of load for this offense.  But with Harris now out for likely a couple of games after pinky surgery, Michel has an opportunity to establish himself in this offense with Cam out of the gates.  He hasn't shown a lot outside of that dominant 2018 playoff run, but that alone shows me he has the potential to dominate carries and be a big factor in this Patriot offense.  I would draft him in the middle rounds (and I HAVE!) with the idea he could be a top-20 RB this year.

New York Jets

I don't know what to say about the Jets.  Everyone hates Le'Veon Bell.  Chris Herndon is a sleeper for a lot of people.  I'm not sure if many people are excited to draft any Jet, but I'd be fine landing Jamison Crowder as my third or fourth WR.  Perriman's knee is swelling every time he practices.  Denzel Mims just got onto the practice field.  Herndon was having some chest issues the other day.  Their entire receiving corps feels banged up, but you don't hear much about Crowder.  This team is likely going to be bad (the defense might be especially terrible), so I expect Darnold to have to throw a lot.  I could see Jamison Crowder getting near 140 targets, catching 90 of them, and being a borderline top-12 WR in PPR formats.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

No matter what format you play in, Mark Ingram was an RB1 last year.  What if the Ravens just keep feeding him the rock?  He could absolutely be an RB1 again!  Ingram feels like the kind of player that people hold their nose and draft in the 4th round as their second running back after a big run on WR.  But people seem to love the idea that J.K. Dobbins is just going to take over his job by midseason.  I don't see it, and I can see a world in which Ingram finishes in the top-12 yet again, but no one is pushing this narrative in 2020.

Cincinnati Bengals

What if Joe Burrow isn't any good in the NFL?  Don't get me wrong.  I have him currently as my QB15, and I can envision a scenario in which he finishes in the top-10 like Kyler did last year.  But he's a rookie.  He didn't get any preseason games to play in.  He'll be taking his first snap in the NFL lined up against Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.  In Week 2, he faces Myles Garrett and the Browns.  Week 3 should be easy though.  Oh wait.  He gets the Eagles, who have one of the best duos up front in Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham.  If he's still alive by Week 4, he gets a break by facing the Jags.  But you get my point here.  A lot of top QB draft picks bust: JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith.  These were all top-3 picks who did virtually nothing in the NFL.  I could go further back and give more, but it's possible that Burrow isn't amazing from Day 1.  He might not even end up as a bust, but it's possible he doesn't have a rookie year like Kyler had last year.  He could have a rookie year more like Peyton Manning.  Hey, that guy still ended up pretty good, but he wasn't great as a rookie!  I just wanted to mention that it's actually possible that Joe Burrow struggles, and that could have an impact on the other Bengal position players too.

Cleveland Browns

What if Kareem Hunt is the #1 RB for the Browns this year?  They have a new coaching staff and a GM that didn't draft Chubb.  I'm not saying Chubb is washed or anything.  He's a great downfield runner.  But Dalvin Cook was a dynamic back in Stefanski's offense last year in Minnesota.  It's possible Kareem Hunt could fit that RB mold more than Chubb and ends up getting more work than the assumed workhorse in Cleveland.  I'd say this has a fairly small chance of happening, but with all of the new people calling the shots, you just never know.

Pittsburgh Steelers

What if Ben is never quite the same player again?  He had serious elbow surgery last year which repaired three different tendons.  According to experts (not me), no quarterback has had this exact type of surgery to repair this many tendons in a throwing elbow.  I know he's looking good in camp, but what if he only makes it through a few games and that elbow isn't right?  Remember how last year went with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB?  I feel like Pittsburgh could be in the same situation by October, and that would have a negative impact on JuJu and the rest of this offense.  It's possible James Conner could stay healthy and still have a productive season in this scenario, but this seems like a real possibility that no one wants to talk about.

AFC South

Houston Texans

What if Brandin Cooks gets another concussion and Will Fuller tears another hamstring, knee ligament, etc.?  Everyone has this rosy forecast for the Texans, and I get it.  I'm one of those people.  You want to believe that if Will Fuller can just stay healthy, he could be a top-10 WR with Hopkins gone.  But let's be real for a minute.  If these guys are both injured at some point during the season, Watson's top receiving options are going to be Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb.  In fact, if one of Cooks or Fuller goes down, Cobb probably becomes a top-20 WR.  That's a scenario that no one is talking about too.  But big picture, if these injury prone WRs go down, this Texans team could stink.

Indianapolis Colts

What if Jonathan Taylor gets 75-80% of the carries from Day 1?  Most of the rookie RB hype is around Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the Chiefs offense (and for good reason).  Sure, CEH was a first round pick (the LAST pick of the 1st round by the way), but Taylor was selected just a few picks later near the top of Round 2.  If you told me that Marlon Mack wasn't on the 53 man roster or if the Colts just flat out committed to Taylor right away, he'd be a first round fantasy pick for me.  Indy's offensive line is one of the best in the league, and it's a match made in heaven for Taylor.  In that "Day 1" scenario, I could see Jonathan Taylor finishing as a top-5 fantasy RB.

Jacksonville Jaguars
What if the Jags are actually good this year?  LOL.  Just kidding.  But seriously, they've been trading away key pieces on defense this offseason and just released their best running back in Fournette.  It's crazy.  Plenty of people have been talking about Gardner Minshew the last couple of months, and I believe he could end up in the QB1 conversation.  So I'll go off the radar here and say what if Jay Gruden brings in Adrian Peterson for a super low price tag?  Washington released AP today, but we've heard the guy still wants to play and chase rushing records.  I don't see why he couldn't do that in Jacksonville who doesn't seem all that interested in winning football games this year.  If that happens, I could see Peterson rushing for 1,054 yards at age 35.  And if that seems like a random number, it's not.  That's the amount of yards he needs to pass Barry Sanders for 4th on the all time rushing yards list.  I actually think he could hit that number if he can get 250 carries somewhere this season.  I'm not sure he could do that anywhere other than Jacksonville, so why not, right?

Tennessee Titans
What if Ryan Tannehill just keeps doing what he did as a starter in 2019?  This is seriously a narrative that I have seen ZERO of on Fantasy Twitter.  I'm sure there are plenty of Titans fans who believe in Tannehill, but not many outside of Nashville think he'll be more than a middling QB2.  Well, he has the same coaching staff, receiving options, and running back.  Why can't he continue to put up those numbers?  The guy had multiple touchdowns in every game he started last year.  He had 3+ total TDs in 5 of those 10 starts.  Tannehill is getting no love this year, as everyone expects him to regress.  What if he just doesn't...?

AFC West

Denver Broncos

What if Drew Lock isn't the answer at the QB position for the Broncos?  Don't get me wrong, I actually like the sleeper potential of Lock, especially because of the fantastic young receiving options Denver has accumulated for him.  But his 4-1 late season record last year looks a lot worse when you consider two of those wins were against the Lions and Raiders.  Lock had less than 200 passing yards and just one touchdown in each of those games.  He begins 2020 against the Titans, Steelers, and Bucs.  I could see the Broncos starting 0-3 and giving Jeff Driskel a shot against the Jets in Week 4.  When you look at the list of the offseason free agent QB signings, as of this writing there have been 22.  Driskel's is one of only 6 such contracts that are for multiple seasons.  Even guys like Jameis and Cam only got one year deals!  This tells me the Broncos have some doubt about Lock and may like Driskel to potentially be the guy later this year and potentially even next season depending on how things work out.

Kansas City Chiefs

For all of the great things I said about Jonathan Taylor, what if Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn't the guy everyone hopes he will be?  Of course the Chiefs should have one of the best offenses in the league, and even just getting a small part of that will have some fantasy value.  But what if CEH's value is just that: a small part?  It'll be interesting to see which RBs stay on the roster when final cuts are made tomorrow, but I actually think Darrel Williams could end up as a huge value this season.  I don't think he'll have more fantasy points than Clyde, but the rookie might not return that top-10 value that everyone is assuming he will.

Las Vegas Raiders

Is anyone talking about Derek Carr as a late round quarterback option?  If so, I haven't heard it.  As a reminder, Carr was the QB14 in 2015 (his second year in the league), and he was a top-10 fantasy QB in 2016.  Outside of that, he's been the QB 16-20 every other year of his career, so I get why you may just dismiss him (even as a late round option).  But do you remember who was on those Raider teams in 2015 & 2016?  Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree were on those squads.  Now I'm not saying his current receiving options are those guys, but they might be!  We literally don't know yet because a couple of them are rookies who haven't played a snap in the NFL yet.  This is certainly the most talent Carr has had at the receiver position since 2016.  Las Vegas took Henry Ruggs as the first receiver in the the draft this year, and then they selected Bryan Edwards in Round 3.  We could have some addition by subtraction going on with Tyrell Williams out for the season.  Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are solid options for Carr from last year.  This could all add up to Derek Carr finishing well ahead of his QB16-20 range that he's done most of his career.  He could get back near that top-10 territory if these rookies can contribute right away.

Los Angeles Chargers
What if the Chargers just decide to make Austin Ekeler their workhorse running back?  Behind him are Justin Jackson (currently injured and also "meh") and rookie Josh Kelley (unproven, obviously).  If you've been watching Hard Knocks, then you've seen how shredded Ekeler is and how high he flew over those pads during that goal line jumping drill.  This dude looks like a beast who could be the next LT for the Bolts.  OK.  So that might be a little too far.  I got excited after watching the Hard Knocks clips.  But reeling it back in for just this NFL season, I can envision a scenario in which Austin Ekeler ends up as a top-5 fantasy running back if given the workload.  He might just be that good.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
Up until now, I've tried to stay away from "what if" scenarios related to injuries.  But this is the Cowboys, so a guy can dream, right?  That being said...what if Zeke gets hurt?  I think the answer would be that Tony Pollard becomes a top-5 fantasy RB.  This guy is super talented, behind a great offensive line, and one of the best backups in the league for fantasy purposes.  I wanted to highlight him here because he's a lottery ticket type player who you can take late in drafts.

New York Giants
What if the Eagles struggle with their offensive line and receiver injuries?  What if the Cowboys aren't great to start the Mike McCarthy era?  What if Washington continues to be bad?  Do the Giants have a shot to win the NFC East in a weird COVID year?  Sure, why not?  This is more of a real football take and less fantasy, but I've already talked up Daniel Jones as a potential top-12 fantasy QB this year.  If the defense can be better than people expect, the Giants could be a surprise division winner in 2020.

Philadelphia Eagles
What if none of Carson Wentz's receivers can stay healthy AGAIN?  I don't know about you, but I don't see him making Greg Ward a top-20 fantasy WR.  What I do see potentially happening is Dallas Goedert as a top-5 fantasy tight end.  That's right.  Top-5, baby!  Zach Ertz turns 30 this year and has missed a game or two in the majority of the seasons he's played in the NFL.  Ertz is certainly a lock for 110-130 targets, but Goedert could get into that range this year too.  If he continues improving like he did from Year 1 to Year 2, then Year 3 could land Goedert even above Ertz when this fantasy season is in the books.

Washington Redskins
What if Antonio Gibson isn't ready to be a running back in the NFL?  I know with Peterson getting cut, everyone rushed to Twitter to give their hot take on Gibson.  Well, this guy hasn't actually play much running back in his football career.  It's certainly possible that Washington gets him the ball 10-12 times a game, maybe more if he can figure out the RB position.  But it's also possible that he hasn't learned pass protection yet and guys like J.D. McKissic are miles ahead of him as far as being ready to play Week 1.  We're going to find out soon enough, but it's certainly possible that Gibson is a dynamic player who isn't actually the starting running back for Washington this year.  It actually could even be Bryce Love.


NFC North

Chicago Bears
What if Anthony Miller ends up as a better fantasy WR this year than Allen Robinson?  I don't even think this one would necessarily take an injury.  Miller had 7 touchdowns in his rookie year and then just 2 last season.  What will happen in 2020 with potentially a new QB in Nick Foles?  Who the heck knows?!  Well, we think we know Allen Robinson will be a target hog, and he should be.  But I could see Anthony Miller do more with fewer targets.  Both guys could be 1000 yard receivers, but I think Miller is the guy who is more likely to haul in 10 touchdowns.

Detroit Lions

What if T.J. Hockenson is healthy for all 16 games and is the next George Kittle?  The reports early in camp were that Hockenson's surgically repaired ankle still wasn't 100%.  That's slightly concerning considering his surgery was at the end of 2019.  But reports lately have been a little better, and it'll be interesting to see how he looks in Week 1.  I feel like there's a chance if he is 100% healthy, he could break out in a big way this year.

Green Bay Packers

What if Allen Lazard isn't the #2 receiving option in this offense?  This seems like a reasonable question to ask, but I feel like everyone has Lazard marked in INK for the #2 option for Aaron Rodgers.  Well, I think Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a 50/50 (ish) shot to be a post-hype sleeper and be that guy (and not Lazard).  With Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham no longer in Green Bay, everyone expected the Packers to draft a WR.  They didn't.  It's either Lazard or MVS, and why not MVS, right?!?

Minnesota Vikings
What if Irv Smith, Jr. ends up as the best receiving option in this offense not named Adam Thielen?  He had nearly as many targets as Kyle Rudolph last year, and if he improves on that then he could end up as a very serviceable fantasy tight end (maybe even a TE1!).  The vacated targets of Diggs are still up for grabs, and they're not automatically going to Justin Jefferson or Olabisi Johnson.  Those guys will definitely get some, but Irv Smith could be a big part of this offense in 2020, and not a lot of people are talking him up.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
What happens if Hayden Hurst doesn't just step into the Austin Hooper role and thrive in Dirk Koetter's offense?  This is completely against everything I think will happen this year, but why not, right?  Hurst isn't a proven commodity, and injuries happen.  What if Hurst isn't great in Atlanta like everyone thinks he will be?  The depth chart behind him is super thin.  Would the Falcons sign a guy like Delanie Walker?  Has Delanie Walker even been staying in shape this offseason?  I don't have any idea, but that's my random "what if" for the Falcons.  Watch Delanie Walker be a top-12 tight end in this offense and Hayden Hurst not be...ha!

Carolina Panthers

What if Teddy Bridgewater continues to be the super efficient passer that he actually is and is really good in Carolina's new offense?  There is virtually zero buzz about Bridgewater this offseason, but the Panthers are likely another bad team who will need to throw the ball more to stay in games (or comeback from large deficits).  They added Robby Anderson to a good young receiving corps that includes a budding superstar in D.J. Moore and a good, fast route runner in Curtis Samuel.  Oh, and that McCaffrey guy tends to do good things when he catches the ball out of the backfield.  I'm a little surprised that hardly anyone even mentions Teddy in sleeper articles, but if he plays 16 games this year, he will absolutely be in the top-15 fantasy QB conversation.

New Orleans Saints
What if 41 year old Drew Brees deals with another hand or shoulder issue and misses a month this season?  Who would the Saints turn to: Jameis or Taysom?  Maybe a little of both?  I don't wish for any injuries, but I'm just saying "what if"?  I think it would be super interesting to see Jameis play against his old team in Week 9.  I bet he would light them UP!  I bet Taysom would somehow have a TD in that game too.  Then in Week 10, the 49ers come to New Orleans and pick off Winston 5 times.  Insert Taysom Hill and see what he can do Week 11 against the Falcons.  I would get so much popcorn ready if that happened...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What if Tom Brady doesn't throw to Chris Godwin 120 times?  I mean, he might throw to him 153 times like he did Edelman last year (and other years).  But he probably won't.  What if he throws to him like 100 times?  What if Mike Evans has like 10 TDs and Godwin only has 6 or 7?  I have Godwin as a keeper in my main/home league, and I was able to keep him for a 7th round pick this year (a 9th last year!).  So I won't complain if he returns even just decent value.  But I'm very worried about him as a "sure thing" top-12 fantasy WR this year.  In fact, I can envision a scenario in which he's just middle of the road and finishes around the WR25-30.  Tamps Bay has a lot of fantasy options this year, and Godwin is just one of those options.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

There's one Cardinal who I feel like isn't getting talked up at all this summer, and that's Christian Kirk.  This guy's ADP is outside of the top-100 and outside of the top-40 WRs, but the third year guy could be ready to break out.  I'm in the camp that thinks DeAndre Hopkins won't get anywhere close to the 150-175ish targets he was used to seeing in Houston.  I think it'll be more like 130, and I think Christian Kirk will still get over 100.  He could push for 900 receiving yards, and if he can find the endzone a couple more times, he'll be that 3rd year breakout that no one seems to be talking about. 

Los Angeles Rams

I've already talked about Darrell Henderson a bunch this offseason, but I feel like he's going even more under the radar since he's been dealing with an injury in camp.  He didn't do a ton in his rookie year, so everyone seems to assume Cam Akers will win the starting job and run with it, but like...what if he doesn't?  Henderson could easily be the RB for the Rams with the most fantasy value this season, but all you hear about is Akers.

San Francisco 49ers

How confident are we that Mostert is actually good?  And even if he is, how sure are we that Shanahan will give him the majority of touches in this backfield?  I'm not even convinced Tevin Coleman will be the second best RB in this San Francisco.  It could finally be Jerick McKinnon.  What if one (or two) of those guys isn't good or gets hurt (or Covid) and the Niners sign Devonta Freeman?  What if Devonta Freakin Freeman reunites with Shanahan and somehow ends up as the best 49er RB this year?!?

Seattle Seahawks 

What if Chris Carson gets hurt...again?  Rashaad Penny is likely going to start the season on the PUP list, which basically leaves Carlos Hyde to be the workhorse RB if Carson misses significant time.  He showed last year he could rush for 1000 yards in Houston, so he could absolutely do that in Seattle.  With an ADP outside of the top-200, he's a valuable backup that no one seems to be talking about.  Everyone wants to draft guys like Latavius Murray and Alexander Mattison in the later rounds, but what about Carlos?  The dude probably has a more clear path to carries even with Chris Carson healthy, and he could absolutely be an RB1 if Carson isn't available.

Like my other long article with all 32 teams earlier this summer, if you made it this far...congratulations!  I promise this is the last article before games kickoff in less than a week (!!!).

Cheers,
Bart