I usually do my rankings on Wednesdays, but I'm a day early here to kickoff the season. I'm excited, dammit! Below are my Week 1 rankings, and I've made a few comments on various positions below the rankings about guys I like/don't like as much versus the FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings). It's only Tuesday, so this might change between now and Sunday. But I at least wanted to put some early notes next to guys where I disagree on their ECR.
Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks at the very bottom. Sports betting is currently illegal in my state, so I'm not using my own advice on these picks. But I'd like to point out that I was top-10 on BettingPros last year, so we'll see if I can do that again this season!
2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings
/>QBs
I'm not crazy high on anyone versus the ECR this week, but my biggest gap is that I'm currently 4 spots higher on Trubisky versus the other experts. I still only have him as my QB24, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as a top-12 QB this week. The Lions don't have a good defense, and Mitch put up good fantasy numbers against them in both meetings last year. The guy is also playing for his job with Nick Foles now breathing down his neck. He could surprise in Week 1 and would be a cheap DFS option for sure.
I'm slightly down on Aaron Rodgers versus the ECR. He's a top-12 consensus pick at Minnesota, but I have him at QB15 and might consider lowering him even more. This offense is built to run the ball, and Rodgers averages very mediocre numbers when he plays on the road against the Vikings. I could easily see him finishing with 200 yards and a touchdown and be very disappointing to start the season.
RBs
Remember when Malcolm Brown had a huge Week 1 last year? And that was with Todd Gurley on the roster. This game against Dallas has the largest point total outside of the Thursday night game, so touchdowns will be scored. Brown is expected to be the starter, and I guarantee he'll be the goal line back. I don't see McVay trusting a rookie like Cam Akers much in Week 1, and Henderson could be inactive due to injury. I currently have Malcolm Brown as my RB31 which is more than 20 spots above ECR, and I'd rather start him as a FLEX over riskier options (like rookies).
Speaking of those rookies, a guy I don't really like this week is Cam Akers for the exact reasons I laid out above. I also don't like D'Andre Swift (-15 vs ECR) & J.K. Dobbins (-21 vs ECR). I just don't trust the rookies very much in Week 1. I could be wrong, but I want to see it first.
WRs
You know who I like a lot this week? Greg Ward. That's right. This dude has a boring name, and it's hurting his perception. If his name was G Money Warden, he'd easily be considered a WR3. The Eagles basically have him, DeSean Jackson, and their tight ends healthy for Week 1...against the Washington Football Team! Ward was Wentz's guy in December when all of his other WRs were injured. I have him in my top-50 WRs, which is nearly 50 spots higher than ECR!
A guy I don't like this week versus ECR is A.J. Brown. He's one of my keepers in my main league, and I'm sure I'll start him but I don't see him as a locked in top-24 WR this week. I feel like he's more of a WR3 against a Denver defense who could put A.J. Bouye on him a lot on Monday night. Which A.J. will win out most often? I hope Brown can make a play or two, but this should be a low scoring affair and could just end up being a ton of Derrick Henry, especially now that there will be a Von Miller sized hole in the middle of the field.
TEs
T.J. Hockenson had a great first game of his NFL career, and then he just kind of fizzled out the rest of the season. But rookie tight ends rarely do much in their first seasons. They can break out in Year 2 though, and I think a healthy Hockenson could actually turn into George Kittle. He'll start this week at home against the Bears, who will certainly look to lock down Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. That could leave some open looks for the TE position, and I think Hockenson has a good shot to end up as a top-12 play this week (I currently have him 7 spots higher than ECR).
A guy I'm down on this week is Jared Cook (-9 vs ECR). I just don't see ranking him in the top-10 with Emmanuel Sanders now in New Orleans. Cook should be a touchdown or bust tight end all year, and I think it'll start this week against Tampa Bay.
DEFs
The team I picked as my sleeper at the DST position this year is the Miami Dolphins. I like what they did in free agency, and if the offense can stay on the field a bit more, that will help this defense stay fresh. The Dolphins travel to Foxboro Sunday to face a new look Patriots team led by Cam Newton. This game has a point total of 43, and New England is expected to win by a touchdown. I think it'll be closer than that and could end up something like 20-17 in what will be a defensive battle. I like the Patriots to win the game, but I also like the Dolphins to be a top-20 fantasy defense (I have them +8 vs ECR currently).
I'm down on the Jets (-6 vs ECR), and I can't figure out why so many experts have them ranked in their top-20. Maybe it's because Josh Allen is prone to turn the ball over and Devin Singletary has had fumbling issues in camp. This game's point total is even lower at 39.5, so that could be part of it as well. But if it stays around that total, I think the Bills will win this one 30-10. I don't see the Jets doing much to stop them, but we shall see!
Speaking of point totals and spreads...
I'm taking the OVER for Thursday night's game between the Chiefs and Texans, and I want to take Houston to cover +10 but I'm scared. I have that locked in for now, and I have a bunch of other picks but I might narrow this down to fewer picks come Sunday. So check back and see because I'll update this list as well as my rankings above leading up to kickoff of each game.
Good luck to everyone in Week 1!
Cheers,
Bart
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