Wednesday, September 16, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Week 2 Rankings

Last week I got my rankings out a day early, but now we're back to Wednesday for my Week 2 rankings.  This is a fun week too because I finally have some actual games to based these rankings on.  Especially this year with no preseason, I feel much better this week at least having some information to back these rankings other than depth charts, offseason chatter, etc.  As always, I'll have comments on various positions below the rankings about guys I like/don't like as much versus the FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings). 

Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks at the very bottom.  I did pretty well with those in Week 1, but I was also able to lock in some early lines about a month ago.  So this week will be more of a true test.



I was 4-1 ATS, 5-2 over/under, and 4-2 on the moneyline.  With the units I "bet", I ended up with positive numbers in each category, so I feel good about that start. 

Let's get right into the rankings, and if you only care about my picks versus the spread, over/under, etc. then you can skip to the bottom!

Cheers,
Bart
 



QBs
My biggest gap last week when I posted my rankings on Tuesday was that I was 4 spots higher on Trubisky versus the other experts.  He was pretty terrible through three quarters, but he salvaged his day and beat the Lions in Week 1.  He actually ended up as a top-5 fantasy QB, but I wouldn't get too excited.  I feel like he has a short leash, and Nick Foles could close out this week's matchup against the Giants if for some reason the Bears get behind and the game somehow is out of hand in the third quarter. I was also slightly down on Aaron Rodgers versus the ECR last week, but he also ended up as a top-5 fantasy QB.  So I was right about Trubisky but way off on Rodgers.  Was the Viking defense the reason Aaron looked like an MVP or is he "back"?  Week 2 might tell the real story, but I'm hesitantly buying into Rodgers.  We shall see...

This week, I'm staying high on Gardner Minshew (+8 vs ECR), and I kind of like Joe Burrow to show up on Thursday Night Football.  Minshew should continue to air it out, and I think he'll also have a low floor with some of those rushing yards.  Burrow is in the same boat, but he actually has way more talent (and weapons).  I like both guys as top-15 fantasy QBs in Week 2.  One guy I think could finish outside of the top-15 again is Tom Brady.  Chris Godwin is in the concussion protocol, and Brady just didn't look great last week against the Saints.  I wouldn't trust him like a top-12 fantasy QB in Week 2 like a lot of experts are doing.




RBs
Outside of CEH and Jonathan Taylor, I was really low on other rookie RBs in Week 1.  For the most part, I just need to see it before I trust a guy.  I didn't think guys like Cam Akers or J.K. Dobbins would have roles right away.  I was wrong on Dobbins...sort of.  He scored twice, so that made a huge difference.  We'll see what happens in Week 2 if the game script is different.  As for Akers, he's probably going to take some time to win the starting gig because Malcolm Brown looked pretty good in Week 1 (for the second year in a row).  Swift was the second guy in a committee and dropped a key touchdown that could've won the game in the fourth quarter, and Moss didn't get a ton of touches but a lot near the goal line.  Clyde and Taylor are ready to roll, but some of these other rookies might take a couple of weeks to get going.  

Speaking of rookies though, I'm actually a little high on James Robinson this week (+7 vs ECR).  If Conner can't go, I'll be starting the rookie in one league, and I don't feel bad about that.  He got a great workload in Week 1, and Jay Gruden has shown faith in undrafted rookies before (Fat Rob Kelley anyone?).  On volume alone, I feel like Robinson will get double digit fantasy points in Week 2.  One guy I'm not crazy abou thtis week is Melvin Gordon.  The ECR currently has him as a top-20 RB, but with the Steelers shutting down Saquon in Week 1, forgive me for not wanting to believe Gordon can do much against them in Week 2.



WRs
You know who I liked a lot last week?  Greg Ward.  I had him in my top-50 WRs, which was nearly 50 spots higher than ECR as of Wednesday.  The guy got 7 targets, but he only converted them into 5 catches for 31 yards.  You could've done a lot worse in PPR leagues, and I'll continue to rank him close to my top-50.  A guy I didn't like much versus ECR was A.J. Brown.  I just thought this game would be low scoring and the Titans would hand it off a ton to Derrick Henry, which is exactly what happened.  A.J. finished with a similar stat line to that of Greg Ward, so I'd say I was pretty spot on there.

This week I like Anthony Miller as a top-30 WR (+11 vs ECR).  I could see him having a day like JuJu did against the G Men last week.  I'm way down on Odell Beckham, who could certainly prove me wrong tomorrow night.  But this feels like last year when it took everyone a while to realize that Landry was actually the #1 WR in this offense.  It's only one week in the books this season, but I'm going to wait and see on OBJ.




TEs
T.J. Hockenson was my guy in Week 1, and I said a healthy Hockenson could actually turn into George Kittle this season.  With Golladay out of the lineup, Hock had a big day and could do the same this week in Green Bay (I'm currently +4 vs ECR on him in Week 2).  I was down on Jared Cook last week, and I said he could be a "touchdown or bust" tight end all year.  Well, he proved me wrong in Week 1 by hauling in 5 catches for 80 yards.  Now with Michael Thomas set to miss a few weeks, I'll be ranking him as a top-10 TE because I expect him to be even more involved in this offense. 




This week I'm down on Mike Gesicki (-8 vs ECR) who is facing a tough Buffalo defense who doesn't allow many fantasy points to tight ends.  Gesicki could see extra targets if Parker is out of the lineup, but I'm not excited about starting him either way.

DEFs
I said the Dolphins would be an OK streamer and that their game in New England would end up something like 20-17 in what would be a defensive battle.  While the total points stayed low, the Dolphins didn't do a whole lot to stop Cam and company.  I was down on the Jets (-6 vs ECR), and I said the Bills would win this one 30-10.  It ended up 27-17, so I was way off...ha!  I'm probably going to stick to talking about QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs and just dismiss the defenses moving forward.  If you want to find a streamer, just take a look at my top-12 or so defenses in any given week.

As for my betting picks, here's what I'm rolling with here in Week 2:


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