Wednesday, November 25, 2020

2020 Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings

Last week I changed up the format of my weekly commentary below my rankings, and I'm going to stick with it.  If you missed last week, basically I'm going to give you a guy or two at each position who I think is an obvious start, a not-so-obvious start, and then a guy I don't really like which I'll call "the ceiling is the roof".  For an explanation of what that means, just scroll way down and check last week's post.  But we're getting close to the fantasy playoffs, so I'd rather look forward than backward.  

In most leagues, you have just two weeks to establish your position in your playoffs.  Once you're in the playoffs, you never know what can happen.  It's not real football...it's fantasy!  The 6 seed can much more easily take down the higher seed with the amount of randomness and luck involved here.  So let's get right to it.  If you have specific questions not answered by my rankings, hit me up on Twitter @bartonwheeler.







QBs
Obvious Start: In case you were thinking about benching Cam Newton, just know in all three of his plus matchups this season he's finished as a top-12 QB: Seattle (QB2), Buffalo (QB12), and NY Jets (QB8).  The Cardinals haven't faced a ton of competent QBs this year, but guys like Russell Wilson and Josh Allen have finished as top-5 fantasy QBs against Arizona.  I'm not saying Cam is still in that same conversation as those two, but he's better than a lot of the other QBs the Cardinals have faced.  I'd fire him up and wouldn't look to stream anyone else unless you really trust my next guy over him (I think it's a coin flip).

Not-So-Obvious Start: If you have Patrick Mahomes and streamed Derek Carr in Week 10 against Denver, you were severely disappointed.  But the Broncos have a good defense.  You know who doesn't have a good defense?  The Falcons don't have a good defense.  In fact, they're giving up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and that's who Carr and the Raiders are facing this week.  He's easily the best streaming option even in a week with no byes (and thus a ton of options).

The Ceiling is the Roof: I'm going back to the well with Matthew Stafford because he's still dealing with a torn ligament in his thumb on his throwing hand, and both Golladay and Amendola continue to be out with injuries.  Hockenson is banged up but playing through it, which leaves Marvin Jones and not a lot of other reliable options for Stafford.  There are plenty of other guys I'd prefer to stream and just ignore Stafford on Thanksgiving.





RBs
Obvious Start: I feel like he should be an obvious start, but it's possible people have forgotten about David Montgomery a bit.  He was out with a concussion and then had his bye in Week 11, but he should be back this week against Green Bay.  The Packers are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, and Montgomery should get all the work he can handle in this contest.  He probably won't finish as a top-10 RB, but he's nearly a sure thing to finish in the 15-20 range.

Not-So-Obvious Start: Detroit has been terrible against running backs and specifically pass catching running backs.  I know Duke Johnson hasn't done a lot with the opportunity with David Johnson out, but I'd have a hard time not starting him tomorrow against the Lions.

The Ceiling is the Roof: I wouldn't be fooled by Melvin Gordon's big game last week against the Dolphins.  He's facing a Saints defense this week who has been one of the best units against the run for the past month.  I'll still have him ranked as an RB3, but I would look for a higher upside WR to plug into my FLEX this week.





WRs
Obvious Start: Last week I told you not to overthink it with Tyler Lockett.  I said if he was healthy enough to play, you're starting him.  He finished as a top-12 WR against the Cardinals.  The same goes for Julio Jones this week.  If he's not healthy enough to play, he won't play.  If he is healthy enough to play, get him in your lineup.  Now is not the time to sit a guy like Julio.

Not-So-Obvious Start: He got off to a slow start to the season, so people might not be realizing just how much D.J. Moore is coming on as of late. And somehow he quietly has the 5th most receiving yards in the league!  I think it goes unnoticed because he's had so many fantasy finishes outside of the top-40, but he's been the WR13 and WR8 the last two weeks.  He gets the Viking inexperienced secondary here in Week 12, and with Bridgewater likely back I think he's a must start.

The Ceiling is the Roof: I warned you about Travis Fulgham last week, and this week I'm backing off Christian Kirk against New England.  This is risky because Kirk is explosive and could break for a touchdown at any time, but I think the Patriot corners will keep him in check.  I just feel like this boom or bust WR is going to bust for a third straight week.




TEs
Obvious Start: In case you hadn't noticed, Justin Herbert finally got his tight end into the endzone the last couple of weeks.  Hunter Henry has been a top-5 TE in each of those weeks, and I'd of course fire him up this week against the Bills.

Not-So-Obvious Start: I'm going deep with this one because I have blind faith in my guy Will Dissly.  He was an amazing fantasy tight end last year until he was lost to a season-ending injury.  He's been healthy this year but only has one catch in each of his last 4 games.  But with Greg Olsen now out for the year with an injury, I feel like Dissly will get most of those vacated targets.  I like for him to sneak into the top-12 TEs this week, and he just might be a decent TE you can play down the stretch.  Also if you want someone who the ECR is ranking a bit higher and has a more clear path to targets, the Niners will have to throw to someone and Jordan Reed could be a great streamer against the Rams. 

The Ceiling is the Roof: I didn't see anything out of Jared Cook in Taysom Hill's first start that would lead me to think he will do anything here in Week 12.  Not only would I not play him, but I'd gladly cut him for a number of guys on the waiver wire.





Week 11 wasn't great with my betting picks, but I was still in the positive with my over/under selections.  Those have easily been my best on the season.  Let's see who we have here in Week 12...

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