Back in August, I looked at all 32 teams and tried to find one "value" guy on each squad who I liked the most based on his ADP at that time (Average Draft Position - using FantasyPros as my reference for half PPR leagues).
Here are a few guys I highlighted who are clearly outperforming their preseason ADP:
James Conner - ADP 44, currently RB11
Tyler Boyd - ADP 76, currently WR8
Will Fuller V - ADP 85, currently WR16
Ronald Jones - ADP 95, currently RB13
Darrell Henderson - ADP 111, currently RB17
Hayden Hurst - ADP 114, currently TE8
Jonnu Smith - ADP 138, currently TE7
Justin Jefferson - ADP 133, currently WR18
Chase Edmonds - ADP 193, currently RB28
And excluding injuries, these are shaping up to be a few bad takes from that article:
Jordan Howard - ADP 88, currently RB76
Marvin Jones - ADP 97, currently WR53
Golden Tate - ADP 147, currently WR68
Ian Thomas - ADP 193, currently TE48
Seriously, Ian Thomas?!? I know this was a last round type of flier anyway, but this guy has had every opportunity. And with the tight end position being such a wasteland and barely a top-50 TE at the midway point of the season, this might be one of my worst calls of the preseason. But if you go back and look at the article, I assure you I have way more hits than misses. A lot of my preseason deep sleepers are on the IR, so I'm not counting those during this evaluation.
This is my favorite preseason article to write. It's a Q&A format that includes some of my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc. based on historical trends. I'll point out a few below and see if any are trending in the right direction as we're now halfway through the fantasy season...
Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Phillip Lindsay (2018), or Devin Singletary (2019)?
[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues. He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]
My preseason Answer: Zack Moss
Honorable Mention: Josh Kelley
Current ACTUAL Answer: James Robinson
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), or Raheem Mostert (2019)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
My preseason Answer: Tarik Cohen
Honorable Mention: Tevin Coleman
Current ACTUAL Answer: Chase Edmonds might be the front runner, but Rex Burkhead is a dark horse candidate. He's currently the RB35, and you just never know with New England RBs...Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), or A.J. Brown (2019)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-20 fantasy WR.]
My preseason Answer: Tee Higgins
Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk
Current ACTUAL Answer: Tee Higgins (WR24)...or maybe Aiyuk (WR26)!!
NOTE: A lot of rookie WRs were being taken in the top-150 or so in August drafts: CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, and Jalen Reagor. So they were all excluded from this question/answer. But it looks like Higgins and/or Aiyuk could end up fitting this category by the end of the year.
Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), or Lamar Jackson (2019)?
[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]
My preseason Answer: Daniel Jones
Honorable Mention: Gardner Minshew II
Current ACTUAL Answer: Burrow and Herbert are rookies, so they don't quite fit this category. It's possible Minshew ends up as the answer (currently the QB17 on the season), but he's not starting after the bye so that's not looking great anymore. If Kyler finishes as the overall QB1 then it's him. Either way, it's decidedly NOT Daniel Jones. I'm very, very sorry about that.
Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), Alex Collins (2017), or Tarik Cohen (2018)?
[Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2017.]
My preseason Answer: Darrell Henderson
Honorable Mention: Alexander Mattison (Dalvin Cook has shown to be injury prone in his career)
Current ACTUAL Answer: Darrell Henderson!!!
This was the very last preseason article I wrote before the season started, and it was a new one this year for me. Throughout July and August, I felt like I heard a lot of the same narratives from people like me who write, tweet, podcast about fantasy football. I wanted to play devil's advocate and give a take on each team that wasn't being considered much. These weren't takes I was "all in" on, but I think it's important not to get too focused on the groupthink mentality and make sure you step back and consider other possibilities. There were obviously 32 of these, so it was a long article. I'll just highlight a few below.
Buffalo Bills
Preseason take:
[If Josh Allen] is better, I think a big part of that could be because he now has Stefon Diggs to throw to...No one is talking up Diggs like he can be a WR1 this year, but he has that potential if Allen can get him the ball.
Midseason Verdict:
Josh Allen has cooled off as of late, but he's still the QB4 and a big part of that is Diggs (who is the WR6 after 8 weeks and leads the NFL in targets). We'll see how both do in the second half of the season with the weather turning cold in Buffalo, and the Bills still have their bye week ahead of them. But Diggs has been a huge surprise not many people were talking up in the preseason.
Indianapolis Colts
Preseason take:
What if Jonathan Taylor gets 75-80% of the carries from Day 1?...In that "Day 1" scenario, I could see Jonathan Taylor finishing as a top-5 fantasy RB.
Midseason Verdict:
The crazy thing is, this was gifted to the fantasy community with the unfortunate injury to Marlon Mack. Taylor has had the opportunity since Day 1 to be the guy, but he just hasn't done it yet. Still, he's the RB21 on the season and is past his bye week. There's still time for him to explode in the second half and finish in the top-5, though it feels more and more unlikely by the week.
Tennessee Titans
Preseason take:
What if Ryan Tannehill just keeps doing what he did as a starter in 2019?...Tannehill is getting no love this year, and everyone expects him to regress. What if he just doesn't...?
Midseason Verdict:
Was anyone outside of Tennessee expecting Tannehill to continue to be a viable fantasy starter this year? In short, no. Right now he's the QB10 and is a consistent fantasy QB week in and week out.
Detroit Lions
Preseason take:
What if T.J. Hockenson is healthy for all 16 games and is the next George Kittle?
Midseason Verdict:
While the Kittle-like breakout hasn't happened yet, Hockenson is the TE4 and we'll see how the second half of the season unfolds. With Kittle himself likely to miss the rest of the season due to an injury, Hockenson could realistically finish as the #2 fantasy tight end behind just Travis Kelce this year.
Good luck to everyone here in Week 9, and I'll revisit this article in January!
Cheers,
Bart
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