2018 Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings

It's crunch time, folks.  Most fantasy leagues start their playoffs in Week 14, so that means just three more regular season matchups to get into those playoffs.  There are 6 teams on a bye again this week, but there are some pretty crappy teams in there, so this week's bye is likely not hitting any one fantasy team too hard.  Next week is the last bye and just the Rams and Chiefs are off, but that's a lot of significant fantasy players sitting out during a potentially crucial week for a lot of fantasy teams.  Hey, everyone has to take a bye week!

I'm keeping the intro short and sweet this week.  Let's get to the rankings!

BYE: Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, 49ers

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QUARTERBACKS
Last week I was high on Andrew Luck (+5) because he always seems to end up in the top-10 no matter what defense he faces this year.  In fact, I knew the Jags were going to be without A.J. Bouye, so I liked him even more.  I also said Luck would find a way to find like 3 of his tight ends in the endzone, and that's basically what happened.  It doesn't matter who the Colts are playing.  Luck will get his tight ends some touchdowns.  I ranked him as the #8 QB in Week 10, and he finished 6th.

I stayed down on Jared Goff (-5) even though he'd been on fire the last couple of weeks.  He didn't have a great game in Seattle in Week 5, and I thought he'd finish well outside of the top-5.  I ranked him as my #9 QB, and he finished 10th.  This week, I'm facing him in my money league and the total points for MNF is like 64 (the highest NFL Vegas total since the 1980s or something).  I'm hoping for a huge Todd Gurley game, but I know Goff will get his.  I have him and Mahomes both as top-3 plays in that game.  Back to last week, I was also down on Ryan Fitzpatrick (-5) against my Redskins.  The ECR had him as a top-10 play, but I didn't.  He put up a lot of yards but failed to find the endzone.  Oh, and he was a turnover machine.  He finished outside of the top-20 fantasy QBs in Week 10, but he's still a startable fantasy QB while he has the job in Tampa.  You know the guy is going to sling it, and he has plenty of weapons in that offense. 

This week, I like Matt Ryan vs the ECR (+4) the same way I liked Luck last week.  If it weren't for Mahomes, we'd be talking about Matty Ice as having a great season (because he is).  He's the #2 fantasy QB and tends to put up better numbers at home.  Don't overthink this one.  Ryan should be a top-5 QB against the Cowboys.  I'm slightly down on Aaron Rodgers tomorrow night (-5), and I think it's very possible he doesn't finish as a top-10 fantasy QB in Seattle.  He's the #10 fantasy QB this season, and a lot of that is due to his big games in Weeks 5 & 6 against the Lions and 49ers.  Since his Week 7 bye, he's averaging less than 20 fantasy points per game.  I know it's Rodgers we're talking about here, but I fully expect less than 20 fantasy points again tomorrow night.

RUNNING BACKS

I was high on Alfred Morris last week (+7) because I thought he might vulture a touchdown from my guy Matt Breida.  Well, this was Breida's coming out party, and he actually stayed healthy for the entire game!  Morris wasn't even a top-50 RB against the Giants.  I was way down on Corey Clement in Week 10.  I was actually -14 versus the ECR on Wednesday because Darren Sproles was expected back, but then Sproles had a setback during practice so I moved Clement back up slightly.  Still, I was -9 vs the ECR on Clement because I still thought Smallwood and Adams would continue to get the most work, and I was right.  Clement appears to be the odd man out in this RB rotation, and he also finished well outside of the top-50 running backs last week.  I expect Josh Adams to get more touches starting this week in New Orleans. As for Week 11, I'm actually kind of high on T.J. Yeldon (+8).  I realize Fournette is back, but Yeldon is still in the mix and I think could be more involved this week if the Jags find themselves playing from behind against the Steelers.  I have him nearly as a top-30 RB, which would mean he's in FLEX consideration.  Two guys who I'm not considering as much as a FLEX are Ito Smith (-9) and Austin Ekeler (-8).  The ECR has them more in the range where I've ranked Yeldon, but I see them as lower volume/TD-dependent guys.  I think someone like Yeldon will get more touches than both of those guys and has a better chance to put up top-30 numbers in Week 11.

WIDE RECEIVERS
I stayed high on Adam Humphries in Week 10 (+13) because you have to ride a hot streak.  He didn't have a great game, but he did finish ahead of even where I ranked him (which was 40th).  I was also really high on Allen Robinson (+14).  The ECR had him at 40th, but I saw him as close to a WR2 against Detroit's banged up secondary.  Well, I didn't have him high enough because he went over 100 yards and had a pair of scores.  He was nearly the #1 fantasy WR in Week 10.  I was down on a lot of WRs versus the ECR because that's just kind of how it works out once you get past the top-30 or so guys.  I'm not going to take the time to mention each one of them here because it's kind of a mixed bag down there. This week, I'm still high on Humphries (+17).  I don't mind continuing to be right because Fitz is throwing the ball his way.  He will get points.  If you look a littler higher in my rankings, I'm also high on a pair of Joshes: Reynolds (+12) and Doctson (+15).  Cooper Kupp is out for the year, and Josh Reynolds will get plugged into the slot for him.  When Kupp was out Week 8, Reynolds had 2 TDs against the Packers.  I'm not saying that'll happen again, but I don't see why it couldn't.  You're going to want to start someone in this Rams/Chiefs game, and Reynolds could still be out there on your waiver wire right now.  Pick him up!  As for Doctson, he's found the endzone in back to back games and continues to get those red zone looks with Richardson and Crowder sidelined.  The Redskins haven't been scoring a lot of points, so this feels like more of a dice roll, but he could make it three straight. I'm down on quite a few WRs versus the experts, but I'll focus on the top of my rankings.  I'm low on Alshon (-8) and Emmanuel Sanders (-8).  The ECR has both guys as top-20 plays, but I think both could struggle with their matchups.  Jeffery could face a lot of Marshon Lattimore (who most people know), and Sanders will see plenty of Desmond King (who many people may not know but has played really well this year).  It's that simple.  I'm just downgrading both slightly based on their likely cornerback matchups. TIGHT ENDS I ranked Jordan Reed as my #2 TE in Week 9 (+7 vs ECR), but he finished outside of the top-20 and actually had fewer fantasy points than Vernon Davis.  I was playing against Reed in Week 10 in my money league though, so I doubled down and left him in my top-5.  I just felt like he was guaranteed to find the endzone (especially against Tampa Bay), but he did not.  I don't own him in any leagues, but I'd be frustrated if I did.  He continues to get a lot of targets, but he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1!  I was highest on James O'Shaughnessy though (+11), while the ECR had him way down at #37.  You probably weren't starting him in any leagues, but he did finish as a top-20 TE in Week 10. I'm really high on Michael Roberts this week (+12) because I think it's very possible Marvin Jones doesn't play and Golladay can't get all of the red zone looks, can he?  I think Roberts will get 3 or 4 targets and could fall into the end zone against the Panthers.  I know it's tough to trust a guy with only 84 receiving yards on the year, but I still think he should be ranked way higher than his ECR (which is currently 32nd).  I'm down on a couple of guys this week, but they're only around #20 for the experts anyway, so I won't waste my time talking about them.  I know there are 6 teams on a bye this week, but you should still be able to start someone ranked in my top-15 or so.  But if not, give Roberts a shot if Marvin Jones is out! DEFENSES

I had the Chargers in my top-5 last week (+4 vs ECR on Wednesday, but only +1 on Sunday).  They held the Raiders to just 10 points in Week 5, and that was with Amari Cooper and a healthy Marshawn Lynch (neither of which are still a thing in Oakland).  They held Oakland to just 6 points last week, and they finished as the 2nd-best fantasy defense in my money league.  I wasn't super high on any other defenses, so I'll just say I nailed that pick (even though the ECR ended up nailing it too).  I was down on the Packers (-4) because they have been dealing with a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  I did say I could very well be wrong about this one because Brocktober is now continuing into November, and I was very wrong about this one.  Green Bay showed up and finished as a top-5 fantasy defense.

I've mentioned a couple of times how there are 6 teams on a bye this week, and 5 of those teams are pretty bad.  That really impacts my D/ST rankings this week because I tend to rank teams facing those bad teams very highly.  But this week you don't get to just start whoever is facing the Bills (that didn't work out so great last week anyway, did it?).  I'm actually high on the Saints this week (+9) and down on the Jags (-9).  After finishing as the top fantasy defense last season, Sacksonville has been pretty disappointing this year.  They're currently not even a top-20 fantasy defense, and they've been among the worst units in the league the last 5 weeks.  This week, they face a good Steeler offense that gives up the 4th fewest fantasy points to fantasy defenses this year.  I just can't see the Jags anywhere near a top-12 play this week. 

As for the Saints, they've held every opponent except the Rams to under 24 points in their last 6 games.  Drew Brees and the offense is clicking, and that only helps the guys on the defensive side of the ball.  The Eagles have only scored more than 24 points once this entire season, and that was Week 6 against the Giants.  I think this game will end up something like 31-20 (Saints), and I like for New Orleans to play well on defense and put up some decent fantasy points.

Good luck to everyone in Week 11!  

(Except you, Bird...)

Cheers,

Bart