QBs
1.Drew Brees
2.Aaron Rodgers
3.Tom Brady
4.Matt Ryan
5.Ben Roethlisberger
6.Andrew Luck
7.Philip Rivers
8.Dak Prescott
9.Russell Wilson
10.Colin Kaepernick
11.Derek Carr
12.Eli Manning
13.Kirk Cousins
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14.Matthew Stafford
15.Jameis Winston
16.Cam Newton
17.Carson Palmer
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18.Tyrod Taylor
19.Alex Smith
20.Ryan Fitzpatrick
For many weeks now, I have continued to be high on Marcus Mariota ( ESPN #11, ME #4) and down on Cam Newton ( ESPN #6, ME #12), so Week 12 was no different. As it turns out, neither was a top-10 fantasy QB. But Mariota finished 11th, two spots higher than Cam. And Cam had done basically nothing until the 4th quarter, when he finally connected on a couple of long TD passes to salvage his fantasy day and lead his team back to another...close loss. I'm still down on Cam versus the ESPN experts this week (ESPN #11, ME #16), but I'll give you someone else I don't like in Week 13 to change things up a bit.
I'm high on: Eli Manning (ESPN #18, ME #12)
First off, let me tell you who I do like versus the experts. And full disclosure, I'm not actually starting Eli this week for my fantasy team. But that's only because Kaepernick was available on the waiver wire, and I obviously like him better based on my rankings above. Anyway, I still like Eli way more than the ESPN experts do as he travels to Pittsburgh and faces their somewhat stingy pass defense. Sure, Eli's been way better at home this year, but how can you overlook the fact that he has 12 TDs in his last 4 games? And while most of those games were at home (and the only away one was in Cleveland), I still think Eli will put up solid fantasy numbers and likely be in the QB1 conversation this week.
I'm down on: Matthew Stafford (ESPN #6, ME #14)
On the other hand, here's a guy who only has 5 passing TDs in his last 5 games! That doesn't exactly have me trusting him way up at #6 like the ESPN experts have him ranked. I realize the matchup looks juicy, but I still think he's easily outside of the top-10 fantasy QBs in Week 13. |
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RBs |
1.David Johnson
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2.Le'Veon Bell
3.Ezekiel Elliott
4.LeSean McCoy
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5.Melvin Gordon
6.Doug Martin
7.Jordan Howard
8.Devonta Freeman
9.Spencer Ware
10.Matt Forte
11.Carlos Hyde
12.Latavius Murray
13.Lamar Miller
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14.Jay Ajayi
15.Theo Riddick
16.Devontae Booker
17.Mark Ingram
18.Frank Gore
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19.LeGarrette Blount
20.Thomas Rawls
21.Todd Gurley
22.Rashad Jennings
23.Jeremy Hill
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24.Jonathan Stewart
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25.Rob Kelley
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26.Tim Hightower
27.Chris Ivory
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28.Tevin Coleman
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29.Kenneth Dixon
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30.Jerick McKinnon
31.James Starks
32.Darren Sproles
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33.Terrance West
34.Dion Lewis
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35.Wendell Smallwood
36.Matt Asiata
37.Bilal Powell
38.Rex Burkhead
39.Paul Perkins
40.T.J. Yeldon
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Can we just skip over my RB and WR picks from last week? No? OK, I'll try to make them quick then. In Week 12, I was high on Todd Gurley ( ESPN #14, ME #5) who barely finished as a top-20 RB against the Saints. Oh, and I was down on Devonta Freeman (ESPN #12, ME #22), who hadn't scored a touchdown since October and was facing one of the best defenses in the league. Turns out he didn't care about any of that, as he scored twice against Arizona and was a top-10 fantasy RB. I'm going for bold picks yet again this week and sticking with RBs in the top-20!
I'm high on: Doug Martin (ESPN #14, ME #6)
 With 24 rushing attempts in Week 11 and 23 in Week 12, the volume is there. This week he faces the Chargers, who give up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing RBs (which includes 15 TDs to the position). This seems like a perfect spot for Martin to get back into the RB1 conversation, and he then gets to face New Orleans twice in the next 3 games after Week 13.
I'm down on: LeGarrette Blount (ESPN #9, ME #19)
The Rams haven't been great against the run lately, but they don't give up a ton of rushing TDs (8 on the season). Meanwhile, Blount hasn't scored in each of his last two games and is rapidly losing snaps to a now-healthy Dion Lewis. I think Brady has a big game against LA, and I have Blount as just an RB2. |
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WRs
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1.Antonio Brown
2.Mike Evans
3.Julio Jones
4.Odell Beckham, Jr.
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5.Brandon Marshall
6.Jordy Nelson
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7.Amari Cooper
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8.Davante Adams
9.T.Y. Hilton
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10.Michael Thomas
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11.Doug Baldwin
12.Julian Edelman
13.Dez Bryant
14.Brandin Cooks
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15.Larry Fitzgerald
16.Donte Moncrief
17.Michael Crabtree
18.Tyrell Williams
19.DeAndre Hopkins
20.Golden Tate
21.Demaryius Thomas
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22.Jordan Matthews
23.Emmanuel Sanders
24.Jamison Crowder
25.Tyreek Hill
26.Tyler Boyd
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27.Stefon Diggs
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28.Kelvin Benjamin
29.Allen Robinson
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30.Sammy Watkins
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31.Randall Cobb
34.Mike Wallace
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36.Quincy Enunwa
37.Marquess Wilson
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38.Kenny Britt
39.Willie Snead
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40.Malcolm Mitchell
41.Marvin Jones
42.Jarvis Landry
43.DeSean Jackson
44.Will Fuller
45.Sterling Shephard
46.Anquan Boldin
47.Dontrelle Inman
48.Cole Beasley
49.Brandon LaFell
50.Marqise Lee
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So I was actually one for two with my WR picks last week, as I was high on Tyrell Williams ( ESPN #29, ME #14) and down on Emmanuel Sanders (ESPN #19, ME #33). Tyrell went for 70 yards and a TD before leaving the game with a shoulder injury. That was good for a top-20 finish. But Sanders also went off (for the first time since Week 4!!!), and he finished as a top-10 WR. I guess he was due...?
 I'm high on: Tyler Boyd (ESPN #41, ME #26)
I'm high on a lot of WRs versus the experts this week, so it's hard to just pick one. But I'll go ahead and pick a guy who I'm likely to play in my FLEX position on Sunday. That's right. I'm going to put my money where my mouth is! This one is somewhat of a gut call, but I like for Boyd to have a breakout game against Philly (who gives up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing WRs). Tyler Boyd has gotten a ton of targets since A.J. Green got injured, and I think he'll get double-digit targets on Sunday. I also think he has the potential for around 80 yards and a TD, and his floor is probably something like 50 yards and no TD. I'm hoping he breaks the ceiling.
I'm down on: Jarvis Landry (ESPN #32, ME #42) |
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I'm sure I sound like a broken record with this guy because I'm basically down on him every week, but I'm also basically right every week. Landry is a good player, but he still hasn't scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 3 against the Browns. That was also the last time he broke the 100 receiving yard mark, and he's averaged just over 40 yards/game in his last 4 contests. Baltimore is much better against the run than the pass this year, but I just don't understand why the experts continue to rank Jarvis Landry 10-15 spots higher than I do.
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TEs
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1.Jimmy Graham
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2.Travis Kelce
3.Tyler Eifert
4.Kyle Rudolph
5.Greg Olsen
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6.Eric Ebron
7.Antonio Gates
8.Coby Fleener
9.Martellus Bennett
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10.Vernon Davis
11.Zach Ertz
12.Cameron Brate
13.Vance McDonald
14.C.J. Fiedorowicz
15.Lance Kendricks
Last week I was high on Vance McDonald ( ESPN #22, ME #14), who had gotten 6 targets in each of his previous 4 games. He actually had 8 targets in this one, but he only hauled in 4 of them for 60 yards. Still, he was a top-15 TE (higher than the experts had him) and finished better than the likes of guys like Dennis Pitta (ESPN #16, ME NOT RANKED), who continues to disappoint and who I'll continue to not rank. ESPN ranked Pitta 15th this week (a spot higher than last week!). WHAT?!? I obviously didn't rank him, but I'll give you someone else I'm down on in Week 13 so I can stop talking about the Raven tight end for a week.
I'm high on: Coby Fleener (ESPN #17, ME #8)
 Here's a guy who was in everyone's preseason "sleeper" articles, but he hasn't lived up to the hype one bit. Yes, he has had some big games (Weeks 3 & 6), but those seem like a distant memory at this point. Well, I think the Detroit Lions are just what the doctor ordered for Fleener. They're giving up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season, and as long as those points don't go to Josh Hill in this game, I like Fleener as a top-10 play in Week 13.
I'm down on: Jason Witten (ESPN #11, ME NOT RANKED)
I thought about talking up Jordan Reed here (who the experts all ranked but will absolutely NOT play this week due to injury), but I'll talk about Witten instead. He faces the Vikings tomorrow night, who have only given up 2 TDs to opposing TEs. Meanwhile, Witten only has one game this year in which he scored more than 8 fantasy points (and that was against the Browns in Week 9). Since that game against Cleveland, he has averaged 43 yards/game and has not found the endzone. I'd expect something similar in Minnesota, and I don't see him as being a top-15 fantasy TE this week.
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DEF
1.Broncos
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2.Patriots
3.Seahawks
4.Ravens
5.Chargers
6.Dolphins
7.Eagles
8.Packers
9.Cardinals
10.Chiefs
11.Bengals
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12.Cowboys
13.Bucs
14.Vikings
15.Steelers
I was right about the Detroit Lions for the second week in a row (ESPN #21, ME #10), as they finished in the top-12. You won't see them on my list this week though, as they travel to New Orleans to face a red hot Drew Brees (who I'm also playing against in my fantasy league, which I'm not looking forward to). I was down on the San Diego Chargers last week (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED), who my opponent started against me. It was a good call because San Diego was a top-5 fantasy defense in Week 12. I hope they don't get some stat correction (like an extra magical sack), which would give me the retroactive week 12 loss!
I'm high on: Kansas City Chiefs (ESPN #20, ME #10)
The Cardinals didn't bode so well in Atlanta last week, but I think a healthier Chiefs defense should do better against the Falcons. Kansas City is the #2 fantasy defense this season, and they've been downright dominant since their Week 5 bye. I say fire them up, even in a bad matchup on paper.
I'm down on: Indianapolis Colts (ESPN #12, ME NOT RANKED)
On the flipside are the Colts, who are a bottom-5 fantasy defense on the year. Yes, the Jets give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. But so do the Texans, Bears, and Jags...and Indy did virtually nothing against teams like those. The matchup is nice, but the defense is not. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets might like up Indy on Monday Night Football. Seriously.
Last week I added one more thing to the end of my rankings, which was my predictions for all of the games against the point spreads (that I used from ESPN). My picks are in parentheses, and I put the right picks in BOLD. I was feeling pretty good about my picks on Thanksgiving (3 for 3!), but I didn't do great with the rest of my picks. Maybe I'll be spot on with the prime time night games again this week. I guess we'll see...
Week 12 results: 9-7
MIN @ DET (DET -2.5)
WAS @ DAL (WAS +7)
PIT @ INDY (PIT -7.5)
TEN @ CHI (TEN -4.5)
JAC @ BUF (JAC +8)
CIN @ BAL (CIN +4)
ARI @ ATL (ATL -4)
NYG @ CLE (CLE +7)
LA @ NO (LA + 7.5)
SF @ MIA (MIA -7.5)
SD @ HOU (HOU -1)
SEA @ TB (TB +6.5)
CAR @ OAK (OAK -3)
NE @ NYJ (NE -7.5)
KC @ DEN (KC +3)
GB @ PHI (GB +4)
Week 13 picks
DAL @ MIN (DAL -3.5)
KC @ ATL (KC + 3.5)
DET @ NO (NO -5.5)
LA @ NE (NE -14)
DEN @ JAC (DEN -4.5)
HOU @ GB (GB -5.5)
PHI @ CIN (PHI -1.5)
MIA @ BAL (MIA +3.5)
SF @ CHI (SF +2.5)
BUF @ OAK (OAK -3)
NYG @ PIT (NYG +6)
WAS @ ARI (ARI -2.5)
TB @ SD (TB +4)
CAR @ SEA (SEA -6.5)
IND @ NYJ (NYJ +1)
Good luck to everyone in Week 13!
(Except you, Brandon...)
Cheers,
Bart
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My fantasy team won by a crazy-slim margin last week: 107.47-107.23. In fact, it's such a small margin that I'm still a little nervous that the tiniest of stat corrections could turn that into a loss tomorrow, but I'll just have to wait and see if that happens. For now, I jumped back up into 9th place and join four other teams in my league at 5-7. It's the last week of the fantasy regular season in my league, and there are still two playoff spots up for grabs. We might actually have two teams make the playoffs that don't have winning records! That's good news for me, since I still have a small chance to get that 6th spot if I have a HUGE week and a couple of 5-7 guys lose. But more than likely, I'll finish 8th or somewhere thereabouts and will have to live vicariously through my wife's fantasy team. (She got the 4th spot in her league, and her playoffs actually start this week.)
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