2016 Fantasy Football Week 12 Rankings

If you're in a 12 team league like me, this week you're right back to facing your opponent from Week 1.  That got me thinking back to when I still had so much hope for a good fantasy season in 2016, and it also had me peeking back at my Week 1 rankings.  I thought I'd throw a few tidbits at you from those initial rankings that I found interesting...

1. Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and Dak Prescott were ranked in the 15-20 range.  All are now top-5 fantasy QBs on the SEASON.

2. Adrian Peterson was the #1 ranked running back.  It feels like he hasn't played a snap in 10 years.

3. Todd Gurley was the #2 ranked running back.  Remember when he was supposed to be the MAN this year...?

4. DeMarco Murray barely cracked my top-20.  He's now the #2 RB in fantasy through 11 weeks, sandwiched between David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott.

5. Jay Ajayi didn't even make my 45-man RB list in Week 1.  He's now in the top-10 RBs for the season (and top-5 in his last 6 games).  Arian Foster was the Dolphin RB to own at the beginning of the season...HA!

6. I feel like for the most part, it paid to draft a WR highly.  The top 4 WRs in fantasy right now are: Julio, Antonio, A.J. Green, and Mike Evans.  All of those guys were 1st rounders, and all were in my top-10 in Week 1.  Of course now it looks like Green may be out a while, but still.  It's Week 12, and those are your top-4 guys.  You're happy if you drafted one of them.

7. Jamison Crowder and Davante Adams were both absent from my top-45 ranked WRs in Week 1.  Both are now top-15 fantasy WRs on the SEASON.

8. If you wanted Gronk, you had to use a 1st round pick to get him.  After 11 weeks, Martellus Bennett actually has more fantasy points (Gronk has missed 5 games due to various injuries, maybe 6 depending on his status this week).

9. The top-10 defenses ranked in Week 1 versus Week 11 are surprisingly very similar.  Yet I don't think many people had the Ravens or Eagles pegged for top-5 fantasy defenses this year (they are though).

10. I don't rank kickers because, like...WHY?  But I'll just make a point here that there's NO reason to draft a kicker before the last round of your fantasy draft.  NONE.  With all of the heavy bye weeks these days, even the best fantasy kickers get waived at some point.  I currently own Gostkowski (basically the best fantasy kicker of all time), who I picked up off the waiver wire.  And I had to waive Justin Tucker to pick him up (I had picked Tucker off the waiver wire a couple weeks prior).  Likely only 1 of the current top-5 fantasy kickers were drafted in your league (maybe 2).  I've been trying to get rid of the position in my league for years, and I'll continue to make the case for it.  Gosh, I hate kickers...

I'm not sure why the NFL decided to have two weeks each with 6 teams on a bye this year.  Now here we are in Week 12 and there are NO teams on a bye.  Then next week, the Browns and Titans have the last bye week of the season.  What the hell, NFL?

So no byes this week.  Neat.

Let's do the rankings, shall we?

QBs 1.Aaron Rodgers 2.Tom Brady      3.Drew Brees    4.Marcus Mariota     5.Dak Prescott    6.Russell Wilson     7.Ben Roethlisberger  8.Derek Carr  9.Matt Ryan 10.Kirk Cousins 11.Eli Manning 12.Cam Newton     13.Colin Kaepernick 14.Tyrod Taylor 15.Philip Rivers   16.Carson Palmer 17.Matthew Stafford  18.Jameis Winston     19.Carson Wentz  20.Joe Flacco  21.Blake Bortles  22.Ryan Tannehill 23.Andy Dalton  24.Sam Bradford 25.Ryan Fitzpatrick My picks versus the experts in Week 11 were Dak Prescott (ESPN #13, ME #7) and Alex Smith (ESPN #18, ME NOT RANKED).  Dak had scored multiple times in every game since Week 2, and he'd been a top-5 fantasy QB in his previous 4 games.  I said "I could see Prescott having another game with 3 passing touchdowns, and he could end up being a top-5 fantasy QB yet again."  Guess what?  That's exactly what happened.  This is a guy ESPN has taken a long time to finally rank near the top-5.  The numbers don't lie, boys! As for Alex Smith last week, he was averaging just over 11 fantasy points/game and was without Jeremy Maclin.  So obviously you don't rank him, right?  Well, he actually threw for a TD and ran for another on his way to a top-10 finish.  I mean, whatever.  No one was starting Alex Smith last week, and no one should be starting him this week.  If he's a top-10 fantasy QB again, it'll be on the waiver wire. Although not my official picks versus the ESPN experts, last week I continued to be high on Marcus Mariota and down on Cam Newton.  Mariota was a top-5 fantasy QB, and Cam was outside of the top-20.  This week, I continue to be high on Mariota (ESPN #11, ME #4) and down on Cam (ESPN #6, ME #12).  Maybe the experts have never heard the definition of insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.  At some point, you need to consider Mariota as a top-5 option and Cam as someone who has barely been a top-20 fantasy QB in his last 4 games.  Those will be my picks versus ESPN yet again this week, and I'll keep it simple and keep em rolling in Week 13 if I must! RBs 1.Ezekiel Elliott  2.David Johnson 3.Le'Veon Bell   4.Jay Ajayi  5.Todd Gurley  6.Melvin Gordon 7.DeMarco Murray   8.Thomas Rawls   9.Lamar Miller   10.Frank Gore 11.Spencer Ware  12.LeSean McCoy  13.Matt Forte   14.Rashad Jennings                               15.LeGarrette Blount          16.Rob Kelley  17.Carlos Hyde    18.Doug Martin   19.Jonathan Stewart      20.Devontae Booker   21.Latavius Murray  22.Devonta Freeman   23.Jeremy Hill     24.Theo Riddick  25.Jordan Howard  26.Mark Ingram  27.Wendell Smallwood 28.Terrance West  29.Chris Ivory   30.Isaiah Crowell  31.James Starks 32.Tim Hightower  33.Jerick McKinnon   34.Tevin Coleman 35.Kenneth Dixon   36.Bilal Powell 37.Matt Asiata  38.James White  39.Mike Gillislee  40.Kenjon Barner 41.Paul Perkins   42.Duke Johnson  43.Dion Lewis  44.Dwayne Washington   45.Chris Thompson Last week I was really high on Dwayne Washington versus the experts (ESPN #47, ME #31).  Before Detroit's bye week, Washington had come back from injury to a pretty even split in carries with Theo Riddick against the Vikings.  Now he got to face the Jags, who had given up the 4th most rushing yards/game this season and also 9 rushing TDs.  But somehow, Jacksonville was able to stop Detroit's entire rushing attack on Sunday.  Washington actually led the Lions RBs with 13 rushing attempts, but he only managed 6 yards, and Eric Ebron vultured a touchdown from Washington.  That score could've redeemed his day, but it wasn't to be against the lowly Jags.  I went against the grain and was down on Duke Johnson (ESPN #29, ME #38), who was facing a Steeler defense giving up a lot of fantasy points to running backs this season.  Johnson ended up with 56 total yards from scrimmage and was the 39th fantasy RB (right below where I ranked him).  As for this week, keep an eye on a couple of injuries out there.  LeSean McCoy is expected to play, even though he had thumb surgery earlier this week.  If he doesn't go, Mike Gillislee makes for a nice spot start against Jacksonville.  Also worth keeping tabs on is the Eagle RB situation.  Ryan Mathews looks like he'll be out with a knee injury, and Sproles could be unlikely to suit up with a broken rib.  I didn't rank either, and I have Wendell Smallwood in my top-30.  Kenjon Barner is also in my top-40, but he'd drop out if Sproles plays. I'm high on: Todd Gurley (ESPN #14, ME #5) If you own Gurley, I'm sure you're starting him against the Saints.  But I wanted to mention him here because while the ESPN experts have finally moved him down their rankings based on his performance (or lack thereof), I actually like him a LOT this week.  New Orleans is pretty average as far as the yardage they give up to opposing RBs, but they've given up the second most rushing TDs this season (13).  I have a feeling Gurley finally breaks the 100 yard mark and could wind up in the endzone a couple of times on Sunday. I'm down on: Devonta Freeman (ESPN #12, ME #22)  Freeman is facing the Cardinals this week, and they're giving up the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season.  He also hasn't scored a touchdown since October, and Tevin Coleman should be back in the mix.  I think Devonta will get some decent yardage in this one, but I don't see him as an RB1 like the ESPN guys do. WRs 1.Antonio Brown  2.Odell Beckham, Jr.    3.Julio Jones 4.Amari Cooper 5.Dez Bryant  6.Mike Evans  7.Jordy Nelson  8.Doug Baldwin   9.Brandin Cooks    10.Larry Fitzgerald   11.Allen Robinson 12.Rishard Matthews  13.Demaryius Thomas 14.Tyrell Williams   15.Jordan Matthews  16.Julian Edelman   17.Davante Adams     18.Michael Crabtree  19.Jamison Crowder  20.Terrelle Pryor, Sr.  21.Brandon Marshall   22.Steve Smith, Sr. 23.Kelvin Benjamin  24.Michael Thomas 25.T.Y. Hilton 26.DeAndre Hopkins  27.DeVante Parker 28.Mike Wallace   29.Sterling Shephard  30.Randall Cobb    31.Golden Tate    32.Jarvis Landry  33.Emmanuel Sanders  34.Willie Snead 35.Eli Rogers  36.Cole Beasley   37.Adam Thielen  38.Donte Moncrief   39.Pierre Garcon 40.Michael Floyd  41.Tyler Boyd   42.Marqise Lee   43.Kenny Britt  44.Brandon LaFell  45.DeSean Jackson 46.Tyreek Hill  47.Marvin Jones 48.Quincy Enunwa 49.Tajae Sharpe 50.Corey Coleman I was one for two with my WR picks last week, as I was high on Eli Rogers (ESPN #43, ME #29) and down on Jordan Matthews (ESPN #23, ME #33).  Big Ben did virtually nothing in the passing game against Cleveland, as it was the Le'Veon Bell show on Sunday.  Unfortunately for my fantasy team, I was facing Bell (and Tom Brady, who torched the 49ers).  I didn't stand a chance.  As for Eli Rogers, he has basically become Big Ben's #3 option after Brown and Bell.  But in this game, he just didn't get the volume to be productive.  He did get the most targets and catches after Brown and Bell though, so I'll continue to rank him pretty highly this week (and likely beyond). As for Jordan Matthews, I pointed out how he was dealing with a lot in Week 11: back spasms, a struggling rookie QB, the Legion of Boom, and a case of the Jordan Matthews (drops, that is).  I said if you were looking for a WR who would get you 68 yards and zero touchdowns, Jordan was your guy.  So I was off by 9 yards (he ended up with 59).  Not a bad prediction, eh?  Matthews ended up as the #40 fantasy WR in Week 11.  This week, he's WAY back up into my top-15 as he faces Green Bay's secondary that continues to get lit up on a weekly basis. I'm high on: Tyrell Williams  (ESPN #29, ME #14) I knew when I traded this guy away at the deadline that he was going to finish strong, but I needed to shake up my team a bit and make a move.  Turns out it didn't work out the way I wanted, but that's how it goes.  As for Tyrell, let's take a look at his last 6 games, where he's been a top-20 fantasy WR.  If you take away those two games against Denver, he's averaging nearly 16 fantasy points/game in that stretch and is easily a top-10 fantasy wideout.  Granted, Houston is a tough matchup too.  But I still like him to get double digit targets and double digit fantasy points.  And if you look at his schedule after this week, it's a cake walk.  I expect this guy to be in my top-10 or 15 the rest of the way. I'm down on: Emmanuel Sanders (ESPN #19, ME #33)  This is a guy who falls into that Jarvis Landry category.  Landry is another player I continue to be WAY down on versus the ESPN experts, but I don't feel like talking about him every week.  Sanders is a good player, but like Landry, hasn't scored double digit fantasy points since the leaves were still on the trees.  The targets are there, but Siemian hasn't found Sanders for a TD since Week 4.  Emmanuel is outside of the top-60 fantasy WRs in his last 4 games, and I can't believe I even have him ranked as highly as I do after typing that.  TEs 1.Jordan Reed  2.Jimmy Graham    3.Greg Olsen  4.Delanie Walker   5.Kyle Rudolph  6.Eric Ebron 7.Tyler Eifert  8.Martellus Bennett 9.Travis Kelce   10.Zach Ertz 11.Antonio Gates 12.C.J. Fiedorowicz  13.Jason Witten   14.Vance McDonald 15.Cameron Brate  16.Gary Barnidge  17.Jared Cook 18.Coby Fleener 19.Will Tye 20.Lance Kendricks Last week I was high on Cameron Brate (ESPN #18, ME #11), even with the tough matchup.  He had scored in 3 straight games, and the options after the top-10 were razor thin.  But Brate let me down, as he only caught 2 of 3 targets for a measly 18 yards.  He'll be tough to trust again in a tough matchup with the Seahawks this week.  I was right about Dennis Pitta though (ESPN #12, ME NOT RANKED), who has consistently averaged less than 4 fantasy points/game this year.  He ended up with just 30 yards in this game, and he continues to be irrelevant as a fantasy tight end. I'm high on: Vance McDonald (ESPN #22, ME #14) This was my super deep sleeper in the preseason, a guy no one was drafting.  It's now Week 12, and I'm sure he's still available in your league.  Vance had a relatively slow start to 2016, but he has 6 targets in each of his last 4 games and has turned that into about 8 fantasy points/game during that span.  He scored in two of those games, and I think he has a good chance of hitting paydirt in Miami this week.  The Niners are a bad team that finds themselves playing from behind a lot.  McDonald should continue to get the looks, and he could even be a decent fantasy TE for your team as we get closer to the fantasy playoffs. I'm down on: Dennis Pitta (ESPN #16, ME NOT RANKED)  I won't re-hash everything I wrote last week, but the guy has one good game this year (and that was Week 2!).  I know Flacco throws him the ball a few times a game, but this guy is straight up fool's gold. DEF 1.Giants   2.Broncos 3.Bills   4.Seahawks  5.Ravens    6.Patriots 7.Titans 8.Chiefs  9.Steelers    10.Lions 11.Cardinals  12.Dolphins   13.Vikings  14.Saints 15.Texans I nailed one of my defense picks and totally whiffed on the other in Week 11.  I was high on the Detroit Lions (ESPN #13, ME #5), who were coming off a bye and facing the Jags.  I wasn't excited to be right on this one, as my opponent picked them up and played them against me.  But he could've beaten me without starting a defense, so it's all good.  The Lions had a defensive TD and a special teams TD in this game and were the #2 fantasy defense after the Steelers (who faced the Browns). Tied for the second best defensive unit in Week 11 was the Minnesota Vikings (ESPN #4, ME #12), who I was down on versus the ESPN experts.  To be fair, they had looked like a different team since their bye.  But on Sunday, they made some plays against Arizona.  They also had a defensive TD and a special teams TD, so some of that big scoring came from the scoring (as with Detroit). I'm high on: Detroit Lions (ESPN #21, ME #10) I'll roll with these guys for a second week in a row.  Why not?  ESPN is giving them NO love! Did you know that Detroit has won their last 3 games on Thanksgiving...by a LOT?!?  Here are the results... 2013: 40-10 over Green Bay 2014: 34-17 over Chicago 2015: 45-14 over Philly Just don't go back any further than that because the Lions lost 9 in a row on Thanksgiving before 2013...yikes!  This defense has been a top-5 fantasy squad in their last 4 games though, and Minnesota's offensive line continues to struggle.  I like for Detroit to hold their opponent to 20 points or less for the 5th week in a row, get 3 or 4 sacks, and force a turnover or two. I'm down on: San Diego Chargers (ESPN #9, ME NOT RANKED)  Unless you're counting on a defensive touchdown, I don't see how you rank the Charger defense at all.  They give up the 5th most (actual) points per game to opposing offenses on the year and have the 5th fewest sacks in the league.  They do force turnovers, so maybe you'll get lucky there.  But Houston has been perfect at home this year (5-0), and I don't see them losing this game after that heartbreaking loss to Oakland in Mexico City.  My opponent this week picked up the Chargers, and it looks like he'll start them against me this week, so I hope I'm right with this pick! So usually I'm done at this point with the rankings.  But after losing 5 in a row, my fantasy season is pretty much over at this point.  So I thought I'd add one more thing to the end of my rankings.  This might be the only week I'll do it, or maybe I'll do it for the rest of the season.  Who knows? I thought I'd take the point spreads for all of the games and pick the winners.  We'll see how I do, and next week I'll post the results in my Week 13 rankings.  Since I use ESPN for my position comparisons for fantasy rankings, I'll use ESPN for the betting lines as well.  My picks are in parentheses... MIN @ DET (DET -2.5) WAS @ DAL (WAS +7) PIT @ INDY (PIT -7.5) TEN @ CHI (TEN -4.5) JAC @ BUF (JAC +8) CIN @ BAL (CIN +4) ARI @ ATL (ATL -4) NYG @ CLE (CLE +7) LA @ NO (LA + 7.5) SF @ MIA (MIA -7.5) SD @ HOU (HOU -1) SEA @ TB (TB +6.5) CAR @ OAK (OAK -3) NE @ NYJ (NE -7.5) KC @ DEN (KC +3) GB @ PHI (GB +4) Good luck to everyone in Week 12!   (Except you, Billy...) Cheers, Bart