Week 16 Rankings

We'll get em next year, Peyton!

It was a tough week for the Pig Newtons.  Not only did Peyton Manning put up mediocre fantasy numbers on Thursday, but most of my other guys underperformed on Sunday as well.  Reggie Bush had a nice game against Baltimore, but Shady and Vereen didn't produce like they had been (could have used those points from Week 14, fellas!).  Coby Fleener hit me with a big goose egg too, which was rather unexpected.  I ended up losing my matchup by about 20, so at least I wasn't playing the game of "who I should have started".  It didn't matter.  Now I'm playing for 3rd place, which would get me my money back.  But man, I really wanted that $1000.  Maybe next year.  Just remember, folks: most fantasy points throughout the season means nothing.  Just like in real football, your team has to be playing well at the right time, which is down the stretch.

Anyway, let's talk about this week, shall we?  When I got to thinking about it, I realized this might be my last post of the 2013 season, but we'll see.  I also realized this is the first time all season I've waited to get my rankings out after ESPN, but just know that this is by design this week.  With no Thursday night game, I thought I'd just try to pack everything into this one post.  I'll give you my normal position rankings, I'll recap some of my picks from last week, but I'll also go ahead and give a couple guys who I'm high/low on for the week versus the ESPN rankings.  I'll talk about a few injuries in order to explain my rankings, but you're going to have to keep your eyes and ears open as the weekend approaches.

OK.  Let's do the rankings!

QBs 1.Peyton Manning 2.Nick Foles 3.Philip Rivers 4.Drew Brees 5.Jay Cutler  6.Cam Newton  7.Matthew Stafford 8.Tony Romo 9.Russell Wilson 10.Andy Dalton 11.Colin Kaepernick 12.Ben Roethlisberger 13.Tom Brady 14.Kirk Cousins 15.Andrew Luck 16.Alex Smith 17.Ryan Tannehill 18.Ryan Fitzpatrick 19.Jason Campbell 20.Joe Flacco Still no sign of Aaron Rodgers, but Matt Flynn was able to lead the Packers in a comeback victory against Dallas.  Oh, how I love watching Tony Romo throw picks!  You won't see Rodgers on my list this week because as of right now, his status is still up in the air.  If he's back in there against the Steelers, I'd put him easily in my top-10 (probably around 6th or 7th).  Also, if Rodgers is the QB, I'd bump up his WRs 5-10 spots each.  Anyway, the QB I was high on last week, Alex Smith (ESPN #13, ME #11) actually finished as the #1 fantasy QB.  Yes, a lot of that was Jamaal Charles catching and running them in, but whatever.  Points are points.  And while I was down on Kirk Cousins (ESPN #19, ME not ranked), I did rank guys like Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick ahead of him in my Friday update.  Cousins still put up top-10 fantasy numbers against Atlanta, but those other guys did finish just ahead of him.  It was a good week for streaming QBs, as Nick Foles was really the only top-10 ranked QB who finished in the top-10.  You picked a great week to be missing in action, top fantasy QBs! As for this week, I can't take Peyton Manning out of the top spot, but I am moving Brees down a bit.  I realize it could be the championship game for you, and Drew just put up 35 fantasy points on the Panthers less than two weeks ago.  But this game is in Carolina, and he's been much better at home than on the road this year.  It's a call you'll have to make for yourself, but I do have a couple guys in between Manning and Brees in Week 16.  As for my rankings as they compare to ESPN's, our top and bottom are about the same, but it's the guys in the 5-15 range that differ quite a bit.  Let's take a look at a couple of those big names... I'm high on: Tony Romo (ESPN #8, ME #12)  I couldn't resist the onion article this week ("pretty rough") We all know that Romo's wins and losses tend to follow somewhat of a bell curve as the season goes on, with Decembers typically being pretty rough.  But that doesn't necessarily translate to poor fantasy production in the last month of the regular season.  And while he hasn't been a top-10 fantasy QB as of late, you couldn't ask for a much better matchup than the Redskins.  I realize as much as anyone that this is a division rivalry game, but I think Romo will be playing with a big chip on his shoulder after last week's embarrassing home loss.  This is more of a gut call than anything, but I think Romo will bounce back and throw for over 300 yards and a couple TDs against Washington. I'm down on: Tom Brady (ESPN #10, ME #13)  Hey, an even bigger name here!  Let's go out with a bang.  Why not?  I'm not way down on Brady this week, but I don't have him in my top-10.  I know he's been on a bit of a roll lately, but losing Gronk does hurt.  Not to mention, Brady's last 5 games against the Ravens haven't been great (just 5 TDs and 9 INTs).  While this is a different Baltimore defense than in year's past, they're coming into their own.  In fact, they've given up the 9th-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and they haven't allowed a 300-yard passer since Week 6.  I look for both teams to try to establish the run in this one, and I think Brady will have numbers that land him outside of the top-10. RBs 1.LeSean McCoy 2.Jamaal Charles 3.DeMarco Murray 4.Eddie Lacy 5.Matt Forte 6.Zac Stacy 7.Adrian Peterson 8.Marshawn Lynch 9.Knowshon Moreno 10.Le'Veon Bell 11.Ryan Mathews 12.Alfred Morris 13.Rashad Jennings 14.Frank Gore 15.Chris Johnson 16.Reggie Bush 17.Giovani Bernard  18.Bobby Rainey 19.Jordan Todman 20.Shane Vereen 21.Andre Brown 22.Fred Jackson   23.Ben Tate 24.Ray Rice 25.CJ Spiller 26.Steven Jackson 27.DeAngelo Williams  28.Chris Ivory 29.Montee Ball 30.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 31.Pierre Thomas 32.Lamar Miller 33.Danny Woodhead 34.Rashard Mendenhall  35.Daniel Thomas  36.Joique Bell  37.Andre Ellington  38.Trent Richardson 39.Darren Sproles 40.Donald Brown Unless you're living under a rock, you know that Jamaal Charles went for over 50 fantasy points in most leagues in Week 15.  If you played against him, you probably know it all too well.  The #2 fantasy RB was Matt Asiata, who got the start with both Peterson and Gerhart inactive for Minnesota.  He didn't put up a ton of yards, but the bruiser found the endzone 3 times against the Eagles.  Peterson is expected back this week, so he's back in my top-10.  I found myself playing against Zac Stacy and Rashad Jennings last week, who were both top-10 fantasy RBs.  In fact, I was high on Rashad Jennings (ESPN #24, ME #14), and I was both right and sad at the same time.  I was also pretty high on Steven Jackson (ESPN #19, ME #13), who finished inside the top-12 himself.   However, I was down on Chris Johnson (ESPN #22, ME #31), but he was able to put up nearly 100 total yards and a TD against a tough Arizona defense.  If he can put up those numbers on the Cardinals, you have to be confident in him to run on Jacksonville.  He's moving way back up my board this week. Hey Ron, how are Ben Tate's ribs...? Speaking of this week, I'm putting LeSean McCoy at my top spot.  It's tough to push Charles to the #2 position after the week he had, but Shady gets the Bears at home.  The matchup is just too good.  I also have Le'Veon Bell in my top-10, and Ryan Mathews is close.  Mathews has looked like a pro-bowler ever since I traded him for Ray Rice after Week 9.  Funny how that happens.  Oh well.  Even Mathews wouldn't have put me over the top in Week 15.  MJD doesn't make the list, and I'm assuming Jordan Todman will get the start for the second week in a row for Jacksonville.  Also, if you're a Ben Tate owner, you'll want to keep an eye on him this week.  Apparently he re-injured his ribs, and if he can't go then Dennis Johnson could get the start against Denver. I'm high on: Montee Ball (ESPN #35, ME #29)  Speaking of Denver, why is everyone all of a sudden off the Montee bandwagon?  The dude has been playing really well lately, and he plays in the most high-powered offense in the league.  He has one bad game and people are staying away from him.  Well I'm not.  Denver couldn't get their running game going against San Diego last Thursday night, but I don't think they'll have as much trouble when they face the Texans this week.  I think we could see double-digit fantasy points from Ball again in Week 16.   I'm down on: Danny Woodhead (ESPN #27, ME #33)  Seriously? That guy is in the NFL...? This little guy has been hit or miss lately, and it's mostly been "miss".  He does have a nice matchup against Oakland, but the Chargers have been giving the ball to Mathews a lot more lately.  Maybe Woodhead will break off a screen pass and score, but that's tough to count on with him in recent weeks.  He's put up double-digit fantasy points twice in his last 5 games, but those other 3 games have all been 4 points or less.  I have a hard time putting a guy like that in my top-30.   WRs 1.Calvin Johnson 2.Josh Gordon 3.AJ Green 4.Dez Bryant  5.Brandon Marshall  6.Antonio Brown 7.Alshon Jeffery 8.DeMaryius Thomas 9.DeSean Jackson 10.Julian Edelman  11.Keenan Allen 12.Andre Johnson  13.Pierre Garcon 14.Eric Decker  15.Vincent Jackson 16.Mike Wallace 17.Jordy Nelson   18.Michael Crabtree 19.Torrey Smith 20.Kendall Wright 21.Marques Colston 22.Larry Fitzgerald 23.Dwayne Bowe  24.Brian Hartline 25.Anquan Boldin 26.Riley Cooper 27.Rod Streater  28.TY Hilton  29.Greg Jennings  30.Danny Amendola 31.Roddy White 32.Doug Baldwin 33.Harry Douglas 34.James Jones   35.Marvin Jones  36.Hakeem Nicks 37.Cordarrelle Patterson 38.Steve Smith 39.Emmanuel Sanders  40.Stevie Johnson I was splitting hairs with my WR picks in Week 15, but I was high on Da'Rick Rogers (ESPN #46, ME #38) and down on Brandon Marshall (ESPN #7, #14).  Well I was 0 for 2 here, as Marshall was a top-10 WR and Rogers had a horrible follow-up to his stellar debut.  Then again, who knows who's getting the passes in Indy when Fleener gets NONE.  Yeah, I'm still a little bitter about that one.  DeSean Jackson was the top receiver in Week 15, but the guys I'm looking at in the top-10 are Julian Edelman and Antonio Brown.  These guys have been so consistent as of late (no matter what the matchup), and I have both pretty high on my board this week.  One guy who is not on my WR list as of right now is Wes Welker.  I'm not sure if he'll be back for Denver's game in Houston this Sunday.  If he is, I think I'd rank him in the mid-20s but I wouldn't alter my ranking of the other Bronco wideouts.  It would just mean you're not even considering a guy like Andre Caldwell as a high-upside flyer.  Players who are just outside of my top-40 include names like Michael Floyd and Golden Tate.  These guys have been decent in recent week, but they have pretty tough matchups. I'm high on: Brian Hartline (ESPN #30, ME #24)  Most weeks it takes right around 10 fantasy points to land inside the top-25 WRs, and when I look at the guys in the low 20s and high 30s, no one stands out to me from a consistency standpoint more than Brian Hartline.  Last week he had 7 fantasy points, and that was his lowest output in his last 4 games.  Ryan Tannehill has been coming on strong late in the season, and Miami is playing for something.  This week, they travel to Buffalo to face a secondary that's giving up the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs this season.  I don't know if Hartline will find the endzone, but I think one way or another he'll get to that 10 fantasy point mark. I'm down on: Roddy White (ESPN #26, ME #31)  Speaking of some of those other guys in the low 20s and high 30s, I'm not feeling Roddy against the 49ers.  I thought he would do much better at home against the Redskins last week, but he only caught 5 balls for 53 yards.  In the game before that he was held to 74 yards at Green Bay.  White hasn't scored since Week 11, and I don't like his chances in San Fran in Week 16. TEs 1.Jimmy Graham 2.Vernon Davis 3.Julius Thomas  4.Jason Witten 5.Jordan Cameron  6.Delanie Walker  7.Greg Olsen 8.Tony Gonzalez 9.Dennis Pitta 10.Charles Clay  11.Zach Miller 12.Marcedes Lewis Marcedes is getting no love from ESPN My tight end list is pretty much the same as ESPN's until you get to #11, but I'll get to that.  First I'd like to point out that last week Delanie Walker returned from his concussion to play against Arizona, who continues to give up a TON of fantasy points to tight ends this season.  Walker found the endzone and finished with double-digit fantasy points.  Who faces Arizona this week?  That would be the Seahawks.  Do you feel lucky with Zach Miller?  He's a feast-or-famine type of fantasy TE, but this could be the week to roll the dice with him.  Another guy to keep an eye on is Tyler Eifert.  Jermaine Gresham left the game against the Steelers with a hip injury, and if he's out this week, Eifert should be the main TE in a nice home matchup against the Vikings.  If Gresham gets ruled out, I'd probably put Eifert at 12th and Marcedes Lewis just outside of my top-12.  I am a little surprised that none of the ESPN experts ranked Lewis higher than 17th though, and 2 of them didn't even rank him in their top-25!  Wake up, guys.  He has touchdowns in each of his last 3 games, and the Titans have given up the 11th-most fantasy points to TEs this season.  What's that?  You're just going to continue to rank Antonio Gates in your top-10?  OK then.  Suit yourself... DEF 1.Seahawks  2.49ers 3.Rams 4.Panthers  5.Chiefs 6.Bengals 7.Lions 8.Browns 9.Dolphins 10.Chargers 11.Bills  12.Bucs  13.Jags  Last week I was high on the Jacksonville Jaguars (ESPN #26, ME #8), and they finished as the #13 defense.  You don't see them in my top-12 this week, but I've expanded my list to 13...more on that in just a second.  On the flipside last week, I was down on good defenses with bad matchups.  I was down on the Bucs (ESPN #10, ME not ranked) & Rams (ESPN #12, ME not ranked).  While Tampa had a horrible day against the surging 49ers, St. Louis actually finished as a top-10 defense against Drew Brees and company.  That was shocking to me, and I'm moving them all the way up to #3 this week in another home matchup (this time against Tampa Bay).  Most of the other top fantasy defenses were in the top-10 in Week 15 (Seattle, Carolina, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Arizona).  The only one of those I don't trust this week is Arizona, who travels to face the Seahawks.  I'll probably be going back to the Bengals this week as I try to get that 3rd place money, and I'm hoping they will play inspired at home against Minnesota, considering they still control their own playoff destiny. I'm high on: Jacksonville Jaguars...again! (ESPN #27, ME #13)  At what point do you stop ranking teams like the Patriots and the Giants well ahead of the Jags?  Well, I started doing it a week ago (which was a week too late).  But I'm keeping it rolling with Jacksonville again in Week 16.  Based on my league's scoring, over the last 4 weeks the Jags have only averaged fewer fantasy points than 5 other defenses: Seattle, Arizona, Tampa, San Fran, and Carolina.  Not bad company to be in.  I get it.  They're the Jacksonville Jaguars.  But adapt or die, ESPN!   I'm down on: Denver (ESPN #10, ME not ranked)  I'm also down on the Cardinals, which I already alluded to.  But they're a good defense who could probably find a way to get some fantasy points (even in Seattle).  Meanwhile, the Broncos have a really good matchup against the Texans, but they just haven't been that good on the defensive side of the ball this year.  They've also failed to get double-digit fantasy points in each of their last 3 games.  And in their last 4 games, they're giving up nearly 30 points per contest.  I realize it's an understatement to say that Houston has been struggling this entire season, but they're still professionals and they'll suit up and try to beat Denver on Sunday.  That won't happen, but I also don't think the Broncos will keep them anywhere under 20 points either, and I can't get excited about starting a defense that has 4 sacks in their last 3 games.   Good luck to everyone in Week 16!  And if I don't do a Week 17 Rankings (I probably will), then I'll see you when I see you. Cheers, Bart