Friday, December 6, 2013

Week 14 Rankings: Friday Update



#meatgasm
Last night I may have found my new favorite restaurant: Texas de Brazil.  My birthday was on Monday, so naturally I've been dragging that out into a birthday week.  I'd been wanting to go to Texas de Brazil for a while now, but I didn't want to do it too close to Thanksgiving dinner either.  So we went last night, and I ate at least one serving of every type of meat they offered...or at least I thought.  Once I was stuffed with as much cooked animal I could handle, one of the guys came around with beef ribs.  Dang it!  So, I didn't try the ribs.  I should have listened to the waiter who said it was a marathon and not a sprint.  But I'll know for next time.  Oh, there will surely be a next time.

So, originally I wasn't too interested in watching the Texans/Jags game, but I actually did watch a little bit of it when my wife and I got home from dinner.  I was in somewhat of a meat coma, and the couch was calling my name.  I'll give you a little bit of a recap as usual, talk about the few injury updates around the league, and then of course...the rankings.

QBs: I didn't rank Case Keenum or Chad Henne in my top-20 (neither did the ESPN experts).  Keenum actually got pulled again in favor of Schaub, about midway through the 3rd quarter.  The way Gary Kubiak is using these quarterbacks, I don't think either is a safe start in the fantasy playoffs.  Then again, Kubiak got fired today, so maybe Wade Phillips will handle the situation differently.  Meanwhile, Chad Henne actually threw 2 TDs and put up some decent fantasy points, though he barely had over 100 yards passing.  Henne has a nice matchup next week against Buffalo, but I think he's way too erratic to consider as your fantasy QB either.  You probably won't see any of these guys in my rankings over the next 2 weeks.

RBs: I had MJD ranked up at #15, and he had his best rushing game of the season before exiting in the 4th quarter with a hamstring injury.  He continues to put up double-digit fantasy points on a consistent basis, but his owners will need to keep an eye out for his MRI results to see if they'll have him for the fantasy playoffs.  If not, Jordan Todman could be a decent Flex play in the coming weeks against Buffalo, Tennessee, and Indy.  For Houston, I ranked Ben Tate 12th and actually had Dennis Johnson down at 39th.  Tate had a very mediocre game, as the Texans abandoned the run in the second half.  Johnson continues to be a non-factor as long as Tate is healthy.

WRs: Andre Johnson owners were happy last night, as he put up another top-10 fantasy performance with 13 catches for 154 yards (I had him ranked 8th).  The only Jacksonville WR worth ranking on a weekly basis is Cecil Shorts (who I ranked 28th).  He only had 2 receptions last night, but he did find the endzone.  What's frustrating with him is that he nearly had a huge fantasy night.  He was targeted 6 times, drew a couple of penalties, and Henne missed him on what was a wide open touchdown opportunity.  He's currently lurking on my bench, but he'll be an enticing play against the Bills in Week 15...

TEs: I didn't rank any tight ends from these two teams in my top-12, and neither did the experts.  But Garrett Graham and Marcedes Lewis both found the endzone and finished with double-digit fantasy points.  

DEF: ESPN had the Texans 12th in their rankings, but it was Jacksonville who actually had a decent fantasy night.  I know it's easy for me to say this in hindsight, but I did consider the Jags in my top-12 (and not Houston).  Jacksonville was horrible in the first half of the season (before their Week 9 bye), but they've quietly been a top-10 fantasy defense over the last 4 weeks.  Meanwhile, Houston has been in the bottom-10.  I won't be considering the Texans at all in the last few games of the fantasy season, but I might rank the Jags next week when they host the Bills.  In fact, it sounds like I'll be ranking a lot of Jags next week against the Bills.

OK.  Let's talk about a few injuries...

1. Aaron Rodgers & Jay Cutler:  Cutler has already been ruled out for Monday Night Football, so you can plan on starting McCown if you were worried about that for Week 14.  As for Week 15 and beyond, I have a feeling it'll be Culter, but time will tell.  As for Rodgers, I'm growing concerned that if he doesn't play this week, the Packers will shut him down for the rest of the season.  A lot depends on how healthy he is obviously, but I think a lot will also depend on whether or not Green Bay has a shot at the playoffs after this week.  I'm keeping a close eye on this, but I might be sitting Jordy Neslon in Weeks 15 & 16 if he still doesn't have Rodgers throwing it his way.

2. Le'Veon Bell & Rashad Jennings:  Both suffered concussions on Thanksgiving day, but both were cleared this week and have been practicing.  Both are expected to play this week, and you're starting Bell against the Dolphins.  But as far as Jennings, you'll notice from my rankings that I don't think he's a very good play this week against the Jets.  You might want to consider other options there, if available.

If Ellington is out again, Taylor could get some touches.
3. Julius Thomas, Jordan Reed, & Delanie Walker: Both Thomas and Reed missed their Week 12 & 13 games, and their status for Week 14 is still up in the air.  John Fox returned to practice for the Broncos on Wednesday, but Julius Thomas was still limited.  Jordan Reed says he's in the "same place as last week", and as of this writing, Delanie Walker still hasn't been cleared to play.  I'd have a Plan B if I was planning to play any of these guys this week.

4. Andre Ellington: He didn't play last week due to a knee injury, and he didn't practice on Wednesday.  He did practice on a limited basis yesterday, but he makes for a risky start even if he's active against the Rams.  If he's inactive, I think Stepfan Taylor makes for a decent Flex play if you're in a really deep league, as St. Louis has given up the 5th most fantasy points to RBs this year...and Taylor did have 60 yards on just 5 touches last week in Philly.  I'm ranking Ellington as if he'll play on a limited basis, but Taylor would be a few spots lower if he's the #2 RB on Sunday.

5. Percy Harvin:  Apparently Harvin had a "little procedure" done on his hip earlier this week, and he hasn't been practicing.  I wouldn't count on him as a fantasy option this week, and he may not even be able to help you in the fantasy playoffs.  We'll see.

That's it for the injury roundup.  Let's do the rankings!

QBs
1.Matthew Stafford
2.Tom Brady
3.Nick Foles
4.Peyton Manning
5.Drew Brees
6.Cam Newton
7.Josh McCown
8.Russell Wilson
9.Tony Romo
10.Alex Smith
11.Carson Palmer
12.Ryan Fitzpatrick
13.RGIII
14.Joe Flacco
15.Philip Rivers
16.Andy Dalton
17.Ben Roethlisberger
18.Colin Kaepernick
19.EJ Manuel
20.Ryan Tannehill
I'm high on: Ryan Fitzpatrick (ESPN #18, ME #12) 
I'm high on Carson Palmer again this week (ESPN #19, ME #11), but he was my guy in Week 13.  I also mentioned on Wednesday that I would talk up Nick Foles in this space, so I have to give him some love (ESPN #6, ME #3).  I mean, the guy is the #1 fantasy QB over the last 5 weeks, he has 19 TDs and ZERO picks on the season, and he has a nice home matchup against the Lions.  What else is there to like?  Well, another guy who has been a top-10 fantasy QB over the last 4 weeks is Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Really?  Really.  He has 6 passing TDs in those 4 games, and he also has over 100 yards rushing and 2 TDs on the ground (8 TDs in 4 games ain't bad).  This week, he travels to Mile High to face a Bronco defense that has given up the 6th-most fantasy points to QBs this season (including over 20 fantasy points/game to opposing QBs since Week 10!).  I think this will be a high scoring game, and whether it's garbage time or not, I think Fitzpatrick will rack up the fantasy points in Denver.

I'm down on: Ben Roethlisberger (ESPN #13, ME #17) 
Big Ben won't be happy to see Miami's secondary this week.
I said on Wednesday that I wouldn't talk about Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck in this space today, but sure enough, ESPN ranked them way higher than I did (which isn't inside my top-20 at all).  And I said I wouldn't write about Philip Rivers again, so I need someone else to talk about here.  I guess Big Ben will have to do.  Not many QBs have been hotter than Roethlisberger as of late, which makes this a tough call.  In fact, the ESPN experts are all over the place with their ranking of him this week (13, 7, 12, and 21!).  But I have him a little lower than their average because I'm betting on the Dolphins to keep him in check.  Miami is allowing the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and they've only allowed 4 passing TDs in their last 8 games (and only 12 total on the season, 3rd-best behind the Titans and Panthers).  Teams like to run it against Miami, and as long as Le'Veon Bell is healthy, I think the Steelers will do just that.

RBs
1.Jamaal Charles
2.DeMarco Murray
3.Eddie Lacy
4.Matt Forte
5.Adrian Peterson
6.Knowshon Moreno
7.Marshawn Lynch
8.LeSean McCoy
9.Andre Brown
10.Reggie Bush
11.Le'Veon Bell
12.Chris Johnson
13.Alfred Morris
14.Shane Vereen
15.CJ Spiller
16.Steven Jackson 
17.Giovani Bernard
18.Fred Jackson
19.Ray Rice
20.Frank Gore
21.Zac Stacy
22.Bobby Rainey
23.Rashard Mendenhall 
24.Lamar Miller
25.Ryan Mathews
26.Chris Ivory
27.Donald Brown 
28.Darren Sproles
29.Montee Ball
30.Rashad Jennings
31.Danny Woodhead
32.Pierre Thomas 
33.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
34.Andre Ellington
35.Joique Bell
36.LeGarrette Blount
37.Willis McGahee
38.Darren McFadden
39.Mike Tolbert
40.Bilal Powell

Murray should see big holes for the second week in a row.
I'm high on: DeMarco Murray (ESPN #9, ME #2) 
Not only is Murray coming off a huge 3-TD Thanksgiving Day game, but for an encore he gets to face a Bears defense that is giving up the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs this season.  And if you look at the total rushing yards against Chicago in their last two games, it's insane (Vikings: 246...Rams: 258!).  With Lance Dunbar lost to a season-ending injury, Dallas doesn't really have that change-of-pace RB behind Murray.  I think he gets a huge workload this week against a poor run defense.  I don't see any reason he can't have back-to-back weeks as the top fantasy RB.

I'm down on: Zac Stacy (ESPN #15, ME #23) 
I hate to say anything negative about Stacy, but this week I have to do it.  I picked him up off the waiver wire the week before he got the starting gig for the Rams, and I plugged him in my lineup all the way up until the time I traded him (after his huge Week 9 game against the Titans).  I felt like I was "selling high" on Stacy, but he proceeded to have solid fantasy days in his next 2 games.  But that was against Indy and Chicago.  This week he travels to Arizona, who is giving up the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season.  I think it's possible he'll still get around 75 total yards, but it's a gamble to think he'll find the endzone against a defense that has only surrendered 4 rushing TDs all year.

WRs
1.Calvin Johnson
2.AJ Green
3.Josh Gordon
4.Alshon Jeffery 
5.Dez Bryant
6.Brandon Marshall 
7.DeSean Jackson
8.Larry Fitzgerald
9.Vincent Jackson
10.Torrey Smith
11.Demaryius Thomas 
12.Antonio Brown
13.Riley Cooper
14.Keenan Allen
15.Pierre Garcon
16.Michael Floyd
17.Victor Cruz 
18.Wes Welker
19.Jordy Nelson
20.Julian Edelman 
21.Eric Decker
22.Roddy White
23.Kendall Wright
24.Mike Wallace
25.TY Hilton 
26.Harry Douglas
27.Dwayne Bowe 
28.James Jones
29.Doug Baldwin
30.Marques Colston 
31.Jacoby Jones
32.Nate Burleson
33.Golden Tate
34.Stevie Johnson
35.Anquan Boldin
36.Brian Hartline
37.Steve Smith  
38.Jarrett Boykin
39.Rod Streater
40.Emmanuel Sanders

I'm high on: Doug Baldwin (ESPN #55, ME #31) 
I was surprised to see Baldwin SO low on ESPN's rankings this week.  Granted, this is probably the first time I've ranked him all season, but you know how I feel about the guy with the hot hand (see Keenan Allen, Riley Cooper, and Michael Floyd).  Yes, San Francisco on the road is a tough matchup, but I also don't think they'll completely shut down Russell Wilson and company (which I believe will be without Percy Harvin).  Doug Baldwin has at least 60 receiving yards in each of his last 4 games, and he's scored in 3 of those games as well.  Considering all of that, I think it's pretty crazy to rank him outside of the top-50 WRs for Week 14.

I'm down on: Steve Smith (ESPN #31, ME #38) 
Fantasy football can be a game of "what have you done for me lately", but in Steve Smith's case, what has he done for you all year?!?  I'm as guilty as the next guy for ranking him anywhere near the top-20 on any given Sunday this season, but he's been falling quite a bit lately.  Not only has he not reached the 70-yard receiving mark in any game this year, but he hasn't found the endzone since Week 7.  I'm starting to consider several other options ahead of Smith these days.

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Jimmy Graham
3.Julius Thomas
4.Vernon Davis
5.Jared Cook
6.Jason Witten 
7.Tony Gonzalez
8.Greg Olsen
9.Coby Fleener
10.Heath Miller
11.Jordan Cameron
12.Ladarius Green 

I talked about Jared Cook on Wednesday (ESPN #10, ME #5), and it's no surprise to me that they ranked him below guys like Greg Olsen and Tony Gonzalez.  Way to go out on a limb, ESPN.  But what I am  surprised about is how they continue to rank Antonio Gates in their top-10 (ESPN #8, ME not ranked...not even close).  Gates has had one TD in his last 8 games, and Ladarius Green has been outperforming him lately.  I realize the Giants are giving up the 8th most fantasy points to tight ends this year, but I think Green is the San Diego TE who warrants a top-12 ranking (not Gates).  But let me talk about two more TEs...

I'm high on: Heath Miller (ESPN #18, ME #10).  To be a top-10 fantasy TE most weeks, you don't even need to get to 10 points.  Miller hasn't scored a TD since Week 7, so I'm not exactly counting on that.  But I am counting on 8 targets or so, which could potentially get him close to 100 yards receiving.

I'm down on: Martellus Bennett (ESPN #9, ME not ranked) 
Yeah, he's facing his old team.  Yeah, Dallas gives up a lot of fantasy points to tight ends.  But since Week 6, Bennett is averaging less than 3 catches/game, and he's only scored double-digit fantasy points once since Week 2.  You could say some of the same things about Jared Cook (who I like a lot this week), but Cook is facing Arizona, who has given up the MOST fantasy points to TEs this season.  I think Bennett, the man who once called himself a black unicorn, will probably be held to 3 or 4 fantasy points (which is about what he's been averaging in his last 5 games).

DEF
1.Cardinals
2.Ravens
3.Chiefs
4.Patriots
5.Rams
6.Bengals
7.Seahawks  
8.Raiders
9.Steelers
10.Broncos
11.Packers
12.Panthers 

I'm high on: Packers (ESPN #22, ME #11) 
Temperatures in the teens?  Nah.  Who needs sleeves...?
I could also talk about the Steelers here (ESPN #16, ME #9), but I'll go with the team that has the bigger discrepancy.  Picking a defense going up against Atlanta burned me last week, but I'd like to think it would've been a different story if that game was actually outdoors and in Buffalo.  Matty Ice won't have the warm confines of the Georgia Dome this week either as he travels to Lambeau, where the game time temperature is expected to be around 17 degrees (that's Farenheit to any of my non-American readers).  Green Bay has looked better on defense since getting Clay Matthews back, and the Falcons have been giving up a ton of sacks this year.  I think the sacks could turn into turnovers (and maybe even points) in the frigid conditions.

I'm down on: Seahawks (ESPN #1, ME #7) 
I almost talked about Peyton Manning in my QB section because he was the ESPN consensus #1 fantasy QB this week.  Really?  Going up against that Titan defense?  I don't think so.  As I was looking at their defensive rankings, I noticed ESPN also ranked Seattle as the consensus top defense for Week 14 among the 4 experts.  They also ranked the Bengals at #2 and the Niners at #3.  These are the safest picks I've seen all year from these guys!  I don't want to rant too much about ESPN because I really enjoy the work those guys do, but let's shake it up a little bit guys.  It's Week 14!  These are the playoffs we're talking about here!!!  Now, I'll eat my words if Seattle actually is the #1 fantasy defense this week, but I don't see it happening with a tough road matchup against a good team who will be looking to avenge that embarrassing Week 2 loss in Seattle.

I'll see you in Week 15!

Cheers,
Bart

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