Week 15 Rankings: Friday Update

Well, my Week 15 fantasy playoff matchup kicked off last night, and it wasn't all disappointment.  Let's get right into that game, then I'll talk about all of the injured players out there...and then the updated rankings.

QBs: I had Peyton Manning at #1 of course and Philip Rivers up at #9, but neither were top-10 fantasy QBs in last night's game.  It was especially frustrating as a Manning owner because of all the time the Chargers milked, and the Bronco defense didn't help with some stupid penalties.  Manning added a couple of points down the stretch as he tried to get the Broncos back into the game, but they couldn't come back and beat San Diego.  The silver lining for me is that whether I'm playing for 1st or 3rd next week, Manning will still be playing for playoff seeding.

It could have been much worse for me than it was last night.

RBs: Denver's running game could never get going, and their RBs got more points catching passes than on the ground.  Both only got around 5 fantasy points each, and my opponent started Montee Ball, so I can't be too disappointed in Manning's output.  Danny Woodhead also managed just a handful of fantasy points, but Ryan Mathews continued to put up solid numbers.  He finished with well over 100 yards and a rushing TD.

WRs: This is where most of the tears came for Bronco owners.  I ranked both Demaryius and Decker in my top-10, but they didn't even combine to get double-digit fantasy points.  It was Andre Caldwell who hauled in both of Peyton's TD passes, helping around 0.001% of fantasy owners I'm guessing.  Meanwhile, Keenan Allen continues to be the main target in San Diego's passing game.  He accounted for 2 TDs himself, and he'll be a WR1 again next week against the Raiders.

TEs: Not much to say for Julius Thomas, though he did have 8 targets, which he converted into 4 catches for 49 yards.  And ESPN continues to rank Gates in the top-10, and I really don't understand why.  He had 23 yards receiving, and he'll continue to stay out of MY top-12 in the weeks to come.

I didn't rank either defense, and neither cracked double-digit fantasy points.  Let's talk about the injured guys...

1. Aaron Rodgers: He's been ruled out for a great matchup against Dallas, and I might be benching Jordy this week because of it.  Nelson hasn't scored a TD this year without Rodgers, and I feel like he makes a risky start.  Decisions, decisions...

Sorry, McCown owners.  Cutler's back...

2. Jay Cutler: Meanwhile, Cutler has been cleared and will be the starter once again for the Bears.  I actually think he'll be a little rusty and have him ranked slightly lower than I would've ranked McCown.

3. Minnesota's backfield.  Adrian Peterson AND Toby Gerhart are both questionable for their matchup with Philly on Sunday.  I don't know who to rank or where for this one.  It has sounded all week that Gerhart is more likely to play, so I'll list him in my rankings.  But keep an eye on this one if you're planning to start either.

4. Reggie Bush: My man was back at practice today, and I'm hopeful he'll give it a go on Monday Night Football.  I'll probably roll the dice with him at my Flex and sit Jordy.  Backup-backup plan will be Ray Rice if Reggie can't go.  Yeesh!

5. MJD: He's now listed as doubtful for this Sunday, and Jordan Todman should get the start against the Bills.

Ogbonnaya could be a decent Flex option this week.

6. RBs with concussions: Rashad Jennings suffered a concussion on Thanksgiving day, and he didn't play in Week 14 against the Jets.  He's passed all of his tests and should be back this week.  Also, Darren McFadden hasn't been practicing, which only boosts the value of Jennings.  However, products of "The U" Lamar Miller & Willis McGahee both got their bells rung last week.  McGahee has already been ruled out for Sunday, so Chris Ogbonnaya should get a healthy workload against a Bears defense that has been horrible against the run all year (and especially of late).  I've moved him up considerably in my rankings.  Lamar Miller has been practicing this week, but he makes for a risky start in the middle of the fantasy playoffs.

7. A couple of tight ends: There was a report this week that Jordan Reed would be shut down for the rest of the year, but the Redskins have been denying it.  He's officially questionable for Sunday's game, but I wouldn't count on him.  Meanwhile Delanie Walker was back at practice this week, and you couldn't ask for a better matchup for a TE than Arizona.

That's it for the injury roundup.  Let's do the rankings!

QBs 1.Drew Brees 2.Cam Newton 3.Nick Foles  4.Matthew Stafford 5.Russell Wilson 6.Tony Romo  7.Andrew Luck 8.Alex Smith 9.Tom Brady 10.Ben Roethlisberger 11.Matt Ryan 12.Jay Cutler 13.Colin Kaepernick 14.Joe Flacco 15.Ryan Tannehill 16.Andy Dalton 17.Jason Campbell 18.Matt Flynn 19.Matt Cassel  20.Ryan Fitzpatrick My top-5 or so was exactly the same as the average of the 4 ESPN expert rankings when I compared the lists on Wednesday, and even after that it's still pretty much the same.  This is going to be tough this week, but let's split some hairs. I'm high on: Alex Smith (ESPN #13, ME #11)  I'm telling you, my rankings are really similar to ESPN's this week.  But if you look at the ranking of Alex Smith by the experts, if it wasn't for Christopher Harris ranking him 9th, Smith would be closer to 15th or 16th.  But I'm with you, Chris!  Alex Smith has been the 6th-best fantasy QB over the last 4 weeks, and Oakland is giving up the 6th-most fantasy points to QBs this season.  Sound like a match made in heaven to me.  Smith didn't fare well against the Raiders in Week 6, but that was also right in the middle of a 3-game pass-touchdown-less streak for the Chief QB.  He's been playing much better lately, and he's had at least 2 passing TDs in each of his last 4 games.  I like for him to do much better this time around against Oakland in what should be a big win for Kansas City. I'm down on: Kirk Cousins (ESPN #19, ME not ranked on Wednesday)  This is an interesting one.  I got my rankings out Wednesday morning when the story was just breaking that RGIII might get benched in favor of Cousins on Sunday.  That had me not ranking either this week, but ESPN chose to include Cousins in their top-20.  Why?  Well, I'm guessing it's based mostly on Atlanta's poor defense...and maybe a little on Cousins wanting to prove himself.  I can't speak for ESPN, but for me, I wouldn't consider starting Cousins this week if I'm in the fantasy playoffs.  He hasn't looked good in the limited snaps he's gotten this year, and his results varied last year when he got opportunities.  He actually played against the Falcons in October of last year when RGIII got knocked out of the game with a concussion.  He completed 5 of his 9 pass attempts for 111 yards.  One attempt was a TD and two were INTs.  He did look better later in 2012 to get a big win in Cleveland, but his track record is a little too erratic to have me ranking him ahead of QBs even as far off the radar as Matt Flynn or former Redskin, Jason Campbell.  Now that Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers are off the list, I'm even adding guys like Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick ahead of Cousins. RBs 1.Jamaal Charles 2.LeSean McCoy 3.Matt Forte 4.Marshawn Lynch 5.DeMarco Murray 6.Eddie Lacy 7.Zac Stacy 8.Shane Vereen 9.Alfred Morris 10.Andre Brown 11.Steven Jackson 12.Ben Tate  13.Rashad Jennings 14.Le'Veon Bell 15.Frank Gore 16.Reggie Bush 17.Giovani Bernard 18.Pierre Thomas 19.Bobby Rainey 20.Fred Jackson 21.Toby Gerhart 22.CJ Spiller  23.Chris Ogbonnaya 24.Ray Rice 25.Jordan Todman 26.Donald Brown 27.Chris Johnson 28.Daniel Thomas  29.Andre Ellington 30.Chris Ivory 31.Lamar Miller 32.Rashard Mendenhall  33.Joique Bell  34.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 35.Stevan Ridley 36.DeAngelo Williams 37.Darren Sproles 38.Fozzy Whittaker 39.Marcel Reece 40.Mike Tolbert DMC shouldn't be in uniform on Sunday. Big day for RJ. I'm high on: Rashad Jennings (ESPN #24, ME #14) I'm also high on Steven Jackson (ESPN #19, ME #13), who has been a top-20 fantasy RB in his last 4 games and who faces my Redskins this week.  Jackson now has 3 TDs in his last 3 games, and he's a near-guarantee to find paydirt on Sunday.  As for Jennings, he's been a top-5 RB in his last few games.  He missed last week's tough matchup with the Jets, but his concussion symptoms appear to be gone and he should have a full workload this week at home against Kansas City.  At first glance, the Chiefs appear to be somewhat of a middle-of-the-road rushing defense.  But upon closer examination, they're actually giving up the 6th-most rushing yards per attempt (4.5).  If the Raiders can keep this game close, I like Jennings to have a big day with McFadden on the sidelines.  I hope I'm wrong because I'm playing against him this week, but I guess we'll see. I'm down on: Chris Johnson (ESPN #22, ME #31) I've moved CJOK up my rankings a bit since Wednesday with some of the injury updates with other guys, but I'm still pretty low on him.  He's facing an Arizona defense who is giving up the fewest fantasy points to running backs this year, and I'm riding that for a second week in a row (recall I was down on Zac Stacy against them last week...and was right).  Not to mention, it was Shonn Greene who had a pair of rushing TDs for the Titans last week, which worries me a little as well.  I'd be looking at other options if I'm a Chris Johnson owner. WRs 1.Calvin Johnson 2.Josh Gordon 3.Alshon Jeffery 4.Andre Johnson   5.AJ Green 6.Dez Bryant 7.Antonio Brown 8.DeSean Jackson 9.Torrey Smith 10.Larry Fitzgerald 11.Vincent Jackson 12.Brandon Marshall  13.Roddy White 14.Pierre Garcon 15.Riley Cooper 16.Julian Edelman  17.Jordy Nelson 18.Marques Colston  19.Cecil Shorts 20.Dwayne Bowe  21.Anquan Boldin 22.Harry Douglas 23.Victor Cruz  24.Mike Wallace 25.Michael Floyd 26.Steve Smith  27.TY Hilton  28.Brian Hartline 29.Rod Streater 30.Golden Tate 31.Michael Crabtree 32.Cordarrelle Patterson 33.Stevie Johnson 34.Kendall Wright 35.Da'Rick Rogers     36.James Jones 37.Emmanuel Sanders 38.Danny Amendola 39.Ace Sanders 40.Doug Baldwin Splitting hairs again because my rankings are so similar, but here are a couple of guys I have nearly 10 spots different from the experts... I'm high on: Da'Rick Rogers (ESPN #46, ME #38)  You all should know by now that I love the hot hand.  It didn't work out last week with Doug Baldwin, but it has worked out many other week's prior to that.  This week, I'm rolling with rookie Da'Rick Rogers (yes, that's how he spells his name...I looked it up).  Rogers had a huge NFL debut last week in Cincinnati, going for over 100 yards and 2 TDs.  I doubt he'll follow that up with better numbers, but I don't see why Andrew Luck wouldn't continue to throw him the ball.  And after the top-30 or so WRs, I don't see anything wrong with ranking a guy like Rogers with high upside. I'm down on: Brandon Marshall (ESPN #7, #14)  I almost stayed away from this one now that Cutler is back, but I'm sticking with it.  I'm going back to the well that is the Iron Haden.  I'm assuming Marshall will get matched up with Joe Haden on Sunday, but I guess it could be Jeffery.  But if Marshall gets that matchup, I think he gets relatively shut down.  Maybe Cutler will look his way a little more than McCown, but I also think he'll have some rust on that arm (and groin.....ew). TEs 1.Jimmy Graham 2.Vernon Davis 3.Jordan Cameron 4.Tony Gonzalez 5.Greg Olsen 6.Jason Witten  7.Delanie Walker 8.Charles Clay 9.Coby Fleener 10.Dennis Pitta  11.Garrett Graham 12.Heath Miller I don't have much further to discuss with the tight ends, so let's get right to the defenses. DEF 1.Panthers   2.Seahawks 3.Chiefs 4.49ers 5.Cardinals 6.Saints 7.Eagles 8.Bengals 9.Jags  10.Bills   11.Patriots 12.Steelers   I'm high on: Jaguars (ESPN #26, ME #8)  I actually bumped the Eagles up to #7 in this update, so the Jags are now down to #9.  But that's still a far cry from 26th!  One guy from the 4-letter had the balls to rank Jacksonville's D near the top-12, and once again, it was Christopher Harris (he ranked them 13th).  I mentioned last week after the Thursday night game that I was considering ranking the Jags against Houston.  Well maybe I should have then, but I am now.  Jacksonville was brutal earlier this season, but they've been playing much better as of late.  Now they get a home game against Buffalo, who just surrendered the most defensive fantasy points last week in Tampa Bay.  EJ Manuel has struggled on the road this year, and I think the Jags will force some turnovers in this one. I'm down on: Bucs (ESPN #10, ME not ranked) & Rams (ESPN #12, ME not ranked). I mentioned this on Wednesday, but I still feel like ESPN is too safe with their defensive rankings.  Yes, Tampa Bay and St. Louis have been top-10 defenses this year, but did you look at the matchups?  They're both home games, but Tampa gets the 49ers and the Rams are hosting the Saints!  No thanks.  If I were to pick one of these teams to be decent this week, it'd be the Bucs.  But there's no WAY the Rams put up double-digit fantasy points with Drew Brees coming to town. That's it for Week 15.  Good luck to everyone who's still playing for something! (Again, except for you, Mac...sorry about that.)   Cheers, Bart