Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Week 14 Rankings

It's playoff time in fantasyland, and with 6 teams in the championship bracket in my money league, a big win in Week 13 landed me a 1st round bye.  In my fun league, only 4 teams make the playoffs, and my wife actually leapfrogged me to finish in the top-4.  Fifth place means nothing in that league, but I'd rather win $1000 than $100 anyway.  And hey, maybe my old lady will bring home some extra spending money for some post-Christmas shopping.  So my rankings this week mean nothing for me personally, but you didn't think I'd neglect my 7 or 8 devoted readers, did you?

To the rankings!
QBs
1.Matthew Stafford
2.Tom Brady
3.Nick Foles
4.Peyton Manning
5.Drew Brees
6.Cam Newton
7.Josh McCown
8.Russell Wilson
9.Tony Romo
10.Carson Palmer
11.Alex Smith
12.Ryan Fitzpatrick
13.RGIII
14.Andy Dalton
15.Philip Rivers
16.Joe Flacco
17.Ben Roethlisberger
18.Colin Kaepernick
19.EJ Manuel
20.Ryan Tannehill

Russell Wilson looked great on Monday Night Football, Cam Newton continued to roll as a top-5 fantasy QB in Week 13, and Nick Foles still hasn't thrown a pick this season.  This week, Foles gets a home game against Detroit, and I'm moving him all the way up to the #3 spot.  I won't talk him up too much right now because I have a feeling I'll have that opportunity on Friday.  If not, I'll probably just talk him up then anyway.  But yes, I have him ranked above Peyton Manning.    On the other side of the ball in that same game, I have Matthew Stafford as my #1 QB for the week.  All of the other top-5 fantasy QBs (Manning, Brees, Cam, and Russell) are playing top-10 pass defenses, so Stafford seems like the safe bet for the top spot this week.  You won't see a couple of other NFC North QBs on the list just yet, but we could see Jay Cutler and/or Aaron Rodgers make an appearance in the Friday update if they're healthy enough to get back in there.  You won't see Matt Ryan or Andrew Luck on the list this week either, but I also won't talk about how down I am versus the ESPN experts on Friday.  We all know they'll rank both in their top-15 or so, and I don't want any part of that conversation this week!


Don't you rank me outside your top-5...
As for my calls last week, I actually got a few right (unlike Week 12, which was rough).  I was high on Carson Palmer (ESPN #16, ME #9), who barely finished outside of the top-10 in what was a good week for a lot of fantasy QBs.  And I was down on Andrew Luck (ESPN #8, ME #19), who was facing arguably the best secondary in the league.  He finished well outside of the top-20, so I'm chalking up two wins in the QB category.  Now I'm scratching my head on how to rank Peyton Manning this week, since he'll be facing the Titans.  I still have him near the top, but he and Brees aren't in my top-3 this week.

RBs
1.Jamaal Charles
2.DeMarco Murray
3.Eddie Lacy
4.Matt Forte
5.Adrian Peterson
6.Knowshon Moreno
7.Marshawn Lynch
8.LeSean McCoy
9.Andre Brown
10.Reggie Bush
11.Le'Veon Bell
12.Ben Tate
13.Chris Johnson
14.Alfred Morris
15.Maurice Jones-Drew 
16.Steven Jackson 
17.Shane Vereen
18.CJ Spiller
19.Ray Rice
20.Giovani Bernard
21.Fred Jackson
22.Frank Gore
23.Zac Stacy
24.Lamar Miller
25.Rashard Mendenhall 
26.Chris Ivory
27.Ryan Mathews
28.Bobby Rainey
29.Donald Brown 
30.Darren Sproles
31.Montee Ball
32.Rashad Jennings
33.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
34.Danny Woodhead
35.Pierre Thomas 
36.LeGarrette Blount
37.Joique Bell
38.Darren McFadden
39.Dennis Johnson
40.Mike Tolbert

Adrian Peterson ran all over the Bears on Sunday, as he racked up over 200 yards on the ground.  CJ Spiller actually showed some life last week too, putting up over 150 total yards and a TD on a weak Atlanta defense.  Fred Jackson added a few yards and a pair of TDs himself in that game, and the Buffalo backfield looks like it may be back to providing fantasy points from both men.  We'll see if that continues this week against a tougher Tampa Bay run D.  Eddie Lacy will be going up against that Falcon defense this week, and DeMarco Murray gets Chicago.  I have both guys as top-5 plays this week with those matchups.

As for my RB rankings last week, they weren't too different from ESPN's, so I had a hard time finding anyone to write about.  I discussed Dennis Johnson a bit (ESPN #44, ME #35), but it was the Ben Tate show against New England (Tate was the #1 fantasy RB in Week 13).  I was hoping Kubiak would do more of a committee approach, which probably could have landed Dennis Johnson in the top-20 if he had a few more of those touches.  But it wasn't meant to be.  It looks like he's a decent guy to stash in case of a Tate injury, as the Texans have somewhat friendly matchups down the stretch.  But he'll remain a borderline top-40 guy as long as the lead back is healthy.

You should think twice before starting a RB against the Jets.
The player who fell the most in my rankings this week is Rashad Jennings.  Not only is Darren McFadden now back in the lineup, but Jennings suffered a concussion at the end of the Thanksgiving game against the Cowboys.  Even if he is healthy enough to suit up in Week 14, he'll be going up against one of the toughest run defenses in the league in the New York Jets.  I'd try to stay away from the Oakland backfield if I had other options this week, and hopefully you'll be able to plug them back in for Weeks 15 and 16.

WRs
1.Calvin Johnson
2.AJ Green
3.Josh Gordon
4.Alshon Jeffery 
5.Dez Bryant
6.Brandon Marshall 
7.DeSean Jackson
8.Andre Johnson 
9.Larry Fitzgerald
10.Vincent Jackson
11.Torrey Smith
12.Demaryius Thomas 
13.Antonio Brown
14.Riley Cooper
15.Keenan Allen
16.Michael Floyd
17.Victor Cruz 
18.Pierre Garcon
19.Wes Welker
20.Jordy Nelson
21.Julian Edelman 
22.Eric Decker
23.Roddy White
24.Kendall Wright
25.Mike Wallace
26.TY Hilton 
27.Harry Douglas
28.Cecil Shorts 
29.Dwayne Bowe 
30.James Jones
31.Doug Baldwin
32.Marques Colston 
33.Jacoby Jones
34.Nate Burleson
35.Golden Tate
36.Brian Hartline
37.Anquan Boldin   
38.Steve Smith 
39.Stevie Johnson
40.Jarrett Boykin

This dude has become matchup-proof!
Last week saw three huge performances in the following order of fantasy points (most to least, with "least" still well over 30): Eric Decker, Josh Gordon, and Alshon Jeffery.  If you were playing one of those guys, you probably won your matchup.  If not, then either the rest of your team really stinks or maybe you were also playing against  one of them.  Week 9 was the only other time this season we saw 3 WRs all over the 30 point mark (Andre Johnson, Riley Cooper, and TY Hilton).  Who knows?  Maybe it'll happen again this week.  I'm still keeping Megatron and AJ Green right at the top, as they both put up around 100 yards and a TD last week.  And after Josh Gordon's back-to-back huge weeks, I don't see how anyone could rank him outside of the top-5 either.  You'll notice that all 3 of the top Denver wideouts are missing from my top-10 for the first time since.....all year I think.  Yeah, I'm nervous about Tennessee keeping them out of the endzone, especially if Julius Thomas plays and can be Peyton's outlet inside the 20 yard line.

Going back to my picks last week for a second, I was high on Harry Douglas (ESPN #21, ME #14), and I predicted 8 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown.  Well, that didn't happen, even against a mediocre Bills secondary.  He ended up with just 6 catches for 73 yards (and no TD), which landed him outside of the top-30 WRs.  Meanwhile, Roddy White had his best game of the year (by a long shot).  He hauled in 10 catches for 143 yards, though he said his ankle is still an issue.  The Falcons have some good matchups in the next two weeks, so it'll be interesting to see if Roddy stays ahead of Douglas moving forward or not.  As for the guy I was down on last week, that turned out to be a good call.  TY Hilton (ESPN #18, ME #32) had just 5 catches for 46 yards, as he turned in his 3rd straight mediocre performance.  And Tennessee still hasn't given up a TD to a wideout since Week 2.  Crazy, right?  Now you understand why I'm down on the Bronco WRs this week.  As for Hilton, he has better matchups over the next couple of weeks, and I've moved him back up my rankings a bit.

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski
2.Jimmy Graham
3.Julius Thomas
4.Vernon Davis
5.Jared Cook
6.Jason Witten 
7.Tony Gonzalez
8.Coby Fleener
9.Greg Olsen
10.Heath Miller
11.Jordan Cameron
12.Ladarius Green 

Remember what happened in his first game of the season...?
Everyone played Zach Ertz last week, right?  No?  Hmmm.  Well, he was the #1 fantasy TE in Week 13...and obviously I'm being sarcastic.  And even though Ertz is a good, young talent, I wouldn't be rushing to the waiver wire to pick him up.  The Eagles were playing Arizona, who does a good job covering WRs but can't seem to keep tight ends in check.  They've given up the most points to the position this year, and it has me ranking Jared Cook this week (who had 141 yards and 2 TDs against the Cards in Week 1).

I feel like the big storyline from Week 13 was Julius Thomas and Jordan Reed both sitting out their second games in a row. Both practiced last week on a limited basis and were listed as Questionable.  I was thinking both would play in their games last week, but neither did...now I'm a little hesitant to rank either of them this week.  With Reed facing a tough Kansas City defense anyway, I'm going to leave him off the list for now.  I'll rank Thomas as if he'll be back this week, but hopefully we'll know more by the Friday update.

The other name that keeps popping up in discussing tight ends is Ladarius Green.  I talked about him in my Week 13 rankings, and I noted how he has more fantasy points than Antonio Gates since Week 6.  He's not getting a ton of targets, but he's making the most of them as he's averaging over 10 fantasy points/game in his last 3 contests.  He has also scored in back-to-back games, and he played on nearly the same amount of snaps as Gates last week (2-TE packages).  Meanwhile, the G-Men are giving up the 8th most fantasy points to tight ends this year.  Green could be a longshot since he's not getting a lot of looks, but he could also pay off big in your Week 14 playoff game.

DEF
1.Cardinals
2.Ravens
3.Chiefs
4.Patriots
5.Rams
6.Bengals
7.Seahawks  
8.Raiders
9.Steelers
10.Broncos
11.Packers
12.Panthers 

Last week I was high on the Bills and down on the Bengals.  I really didn't like Cincy's matchup at San Diego, and I loved Buffalo's quasi-home game against the Falcons in Toronto.  As it turned out, the Bengals were still a top-5 fantasy defense, and the Bills finished just outside of the top-12.  Buffalo still got me some decent fantasy points, and they have a great schedule for the upcoming fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15 & 16 @JAX & home to MIA).  It's going to be very tempting to use them over Cincinnati in those weeks, as the Bengals travel to Pittsburgh in Week 15 but then get a nice home game against Minnesota.  It seems like the smart thing to do might be to just roll with the consistent Bengals, but we'll see.

Speaking of consistent defenses, Seattle and Carolina were also in the top-5 for Week 13.  No one has more fantasy points than those defenses this year...even the Chiefs, who have had a string of 3 bad games lately (though 2 of those were against Denver).  This week, several of those top defenses have tough matchups (including Seattle and San Fran against each other).  I'm still ranking the Seahawks, but the Niners are just outside of my top-12.  As for the Chiefs, sadly I think they have a pretty good opportunity this week to break out of their slump...


I'd be dancing too if I was playing the Redskins and not the Broncos again this week!
That's it for the Week 14 rankings.  As usual, I'll do a Friday update, but I doubt I'll have much of a recap from tomorrow night's game (I don't think I'll actually watch much of the Texans/Jags...no thanks!).  But I'll have some injury updates and of course an updated list for your first week of fantasy playoffs.

Cheers,
Bart

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