I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving. And I'm not talking turkey, family, or anything like that. What I want to know is whether or not you were able to watch football yesterday...? Personally, I caught a little bit of each of the first two games, and I watched the Ravens beat the Steelers in its entirety. Usually I do a recap of the Thursday night game by position, but seeing as how there were 3 contests this week, I think I'll just do it by game.
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| Mustache or no mustache, I want you back, Rah-jahs!!! |
The opening matchup saw the Detroit Lions snap a 9-game Thanksgiving day game losing streak, as they destroyed the Aaron Rodger-less Packers 40-10. Green Bay fell to 0-4-1 without their star QB, and Matt Flynn really struggled against a Detroit D that had a nice fantasy day. This led to the Packer WRs doing pretty much nothing, and as a Jordy Nelson owner, I can't wait for Rodgers to get back in there. Eddie Lacy was also disappointing, though that was somewhat expected since the Lions have a solid run defense. On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford had a couple of picks, but he also had 300+ yards and 3 TDs. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell both had nice fantasy days, and Megatron did his thing with over 100 yards and a TD.
The Cowboys-Raiders game was actually better than I expected, and Dallas held on at the end to get a 7 point win. I'm playing against Tony Romo in my money league, and I played him on my own team in my fun league. So his modest day may end up being a win-lose scenario for me, but I care more about the money league anyway. His one TD pass went to Dez Bryant, so plenty of fantasy relevance there. But the big winners in this game were the running backs. Rashad Jennings continued to produce, as he only managed 43 total yards, but he did get 2 TDs. For the Cowboys, DeMarco Murray finally showed why some people used a 1st round fantasy draft pick on him. He gained over 100 total yards and had 3 scores in the Cowboy victory.
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| Dude, get out of the WAY! |
And then there was the Ravens game, which really came down to the wire. My wife and I watched the 1st half at my parents' house and the 2nd half from Apocalypse Ale Works in my home town of Forest, VA. The Steelers were down 8 points with time winding down, and I thought my wife as going to squeeze the blood out of me when they scored and to cut the lead to 2. But Baltimore held on and got a big stop on a 2-point conversion attempt (that was borderline pass interference). I sat both of my Ravens in this one, and while Ray Rice continued to struggle, it was hard to watch Torrey Smith tear it up while on my bench. I was way down on Torrey this week (ESPN #17, ME #28) because he was averaging 34 yards/game against the Steelers and had only hauled in 1 TD against them in his 5 games. This time around, he got the best of Ike Taylor and racked up 93 yards and a touchdown. Big Ben had a decent fantasy day in the loss, and while the Ravens kept Antonio Brown in check for the most part, Emmanuel Sanders and Heath Miller both got solid points. In fact, Heath Miller was the only tight end in any of these games to get more than 5 fantasy points. Le'Veon Bell also had a good game before getting blown up right at the goal line at the end of the game. If it wasn't for his helmet flying off, he would've ended up with an even better fantasy day.
Speaking of injuries, let's do a quick update:
1. Probable running backs: I had all of these guys either out of my rankings or considerably lowered on Wednesday, but all were practicing today and are probable for their Week 13 games: Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Ivory, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles. You'll find that my RB rankings are quite different than they were just 2 days ago.
2. Andre Ellington: This is a new development, as Ellington injured his knee in practice on Thursday and then sat out today. He's now questionable for Sunday's game in Philly and is expected to be a game time decision. I'm ranking him as though he'll play, but keep an eye on him if you're planning on putting him in your lineup.
3. Julius Thomas & Jordan Reed: Both tight ends missed their Week 12 games, but both practiced this week on a limited basis and are listed as Questionable. It sounds like both will play this week.
4. Bills WRs: Stevie Johnson & Robert Woods have both been fully practicing this week, and both are expected to play Sunday against an Atlanta defense that has given up the second most receiving TDs this year.
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| It's been a disappointing season for Nicks. |
5. Aaron Dobson has been ruled out for Sunday with a foot injury. This may slightly boost the value of Kenbrell Thompkins, though he'd be an extremely risky start with Edelman and Amendola likely to get more of the targets (along with Gronk and Vereen).
6. Hakeem Nicks is probable for Sunday night's game against the Redskins after sitting out last week's matchup, but it's tough to rank a guy who hasn't scored more than 5 fantasy points since Week 6 and has no TDs on the season. Maybe he finally gets one this week against a weak Washington secondary, but I wouldn't be counting on it.
7. Percy Harvin & Michael Crabtree: While Harvin played in Week 11 on a snap count, I think he'll be "all systems go" on Monday Night Football. As for Crabtree, the 49ers finally activated him from the PUP list this week, and he's expected to make his season debut this Sunday. I expect something similar to what happened with Harvin in Week 11, and I won't be ranking Crabtree until Week 14 (at the earliest).
That's it for the injury roundup. Let's do the rankings!
QBs
1.Cam Newton
2.Peyton Manning
3.Drew Brees
4.Tom Brady
5.Russell Wilson
6.Josh McCown
7.Carson Palmer
8.Nick Foles
9.Colin Kaepernick
10.Philip Rivers
11.Andy Dalton
12.RGIII
13.Alex Smith
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14.Ryan Fitzpatrick
15.Eli Manning
16.Andrew Luck
17.EJ Manuel
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18.Matt Ryan
19.Brandon Weeden
20.Ryan Tannehill
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 I'm high on: Carson Palmer (ESPN #16, ME #9)
Palmer has 2 passing TDs in each of his last 4 games (and in 5 of his last 6). In those 4 games, he's also averaging less than 1 turnover, which is huge for him. He's playing some good football lately, and it's turning into wins for the Cardinals. This week he gets a Philly defense that is giving up the 10th most fantasy points to QBs this season, and I think he'll be a top-10 fantasy QB.
I'm down on: Andrew Luck (ESPN #8, ME #19)
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Two weeks ago, I wasn't able to be "down" on Luck because it was a Thursday night game. But here we are again against arguably the best pass defense in the league, and ESPN is sticking with Luck as a top-10 fantasy QB. I can't do it. The only reason he had a decent fantasy night two weeks ago is with a rushing TD, and he hasn't been a top-10 fantasy QB in any of his last 3 games. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but I think he'll finish near the bottom of the top-20 this week. |
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RBs |
1.Adrian Peterson
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2.Marshawn Lynch
3.Jamaal Charles
4.Matt Forte
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5.Andre Brown
6.Frank Gore
7.LeSean McCoy
8.Chris Johnson
9.Knowshon Moreno
10.Alfred Morris
11.Zac Stacy
12.Maurice Jones-Drew
13.Giovani Bernard
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14.Shane Vereen
15.Chris Ivory
16.CJ Spiller
17.Danny Woodhead
18.Fred Jackson
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19.Pierre Thomas
20.Steven Jackson
21.Ryan Mathews
22.Ben Tate
23.Donald Brown
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24.Bobby Rainey
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25.Rashard Mendenhall
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26.Darren Sproles
27.Montee Ball
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28.Andre Ellington
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29.Lamar Miller
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30.Bilal Powell
31.Chris Ogbonnaya
32.Dennis Johnson
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33.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
34.Brandon Bolden
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35.DeAngelo Williams
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36.Stevan Ridley
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37.Benny Cunningham
38.Trent Richardson
39.Brandon Jacobs
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I'm not really down on too many RBs this week, and my rankings changed so much from Wednesday to today with all of the injures that it was hard to figure out who to pick. But I will give you one guy that I was high on when I compared my rankings versus ESPN on Wednesday...
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 I'm high on: Dennis Johnson (ESPN #44, ME #35)
Gary Kubiak says that Ben Tate is still the #1 RB in Houston right now, but I don't trust him after benching Case Keenum and DeAndre Hopkins a couple weeks back. Tate looked horrible last week against Jacksonville, and Johnson stepped in and gained 74 yards on just 13 carries. With the Texans on a 9-game losing streak, I'm not sure what they have to lose at this point. I think Tate will do a little better this week against New England, but I think the rookie out of Arkansas might get close to 50% of the carries. This is somewhat of a gut call here, but seeing as how Denver destroyed the Patriots on the ground last week, I think there could be plenty of rushing yards to go around in this one.
WRs
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1.Brandon Marshall
2.AJ Green
3.Josh Gordon
4.Demaryius Thomas
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5.Larry Fitzgerald
6.Wes Welker
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7.DeSean Jackson
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8.Keenan Allen
9.Alshon Jeffery
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10.Harry Douglas
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11.Andre Johnson
12.Victor Cruz
13.Pierre Garcon
14.Vincent Jackson
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15.Riley Cooper
16.Michael Floyd
17.Kendall Wright
18.Percy Harvin
19.Dwayne Bowe
20.Anquan Boldin
21.Eric Decker
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22.Mike Wallace
23.TY Hilton
24.Marques Colston
25.Steve Smith
26.Stevie Johnson
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27.Reuben Randle
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28.Cecil Shorts
29.Danny Amendola
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30.Golden Tate
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31.Julian Edelman
34.Tavon Austin
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36.Robert Woods
37.Brandon LaFell
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38.Kenny Stills
39.Kenbrell Thompkins
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40.Greg Jennings
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I'm high on: Harry Douglas (ESPN #21, ME #14)
Of course I'm also high on Keenan Allen (ESPN #23, ME #10), who I continue to rank higher than ESPN week in and week out. But you could've guessed that, so let's talk about Harry Douglas instead. Since Week 7, Douglas is averaging just over 7 receptions/game and has scored the 7th-most fantasy points among WRs. Seven man, SEVEN! That's the number. This week, he goes up against a Buffalo secondary that has given up the 3rd most receiving TDs this year (just behind Minnesota and Atlanta). I do like the Bills this week as a streaming defense, but I think Douglas will still get his fantasy points. I'm predicting 8 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown.
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| You'll be running from these guys again on Sunday, TY... |
I'm down on: TY Hilton (ESPN #18, ME #32)
It's like deja vu all over again. Just two weeks ago, I was ranking Hilton way down as he was facing this same, tough Titan secondary. No change here, as Hilton faces them again after posting back-to-back games with under 50 yards receiving. Tennessee is allowing the fewest fantasy points to WRs this season, and they haven't given up a TD to a wideout since Week 2. I feel like Hilton's ceiling this week is around 10 fantasy points, and I think it's much more likely he'll end up with only 3 or 4 fantasy points again.
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TEs
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1.Rob Gronkowski
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2.Jimmy Graham
3.Julius Thomas
4.Jordan Cameron
5.Greg Olsen
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6.Vernon Davis
7.Coby Fleener
8.Jordan Reed
9.Martellus Bennett
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10.Delanie Walker
11.Tony Gonzalez
12.Charles Clay
My tight end rankings are nearly identical to ESPN's, so let's get to the defenses... |
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DEF
1.Panthers
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2.49ers
3.Browns
4.Patriots
5.Bills
6.Dolphins
7.Bengals
8.Giants
9.Cardinals
10.Seahawks
11.Rams
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12.Jets
I actually forgot to capture the team defense rankings from ESPN on Wednesday, but what's personal for me is that I'm high on the Bills and down on the Bengals. I know that a couple of days ago, ESPN had the Bills ranked outside of their top-12 defenses, and I had them ranked at #6. Meanwhile, they have the Bengals ranked as a top-5 defense for Week 13, but I had them ranked below Buffalo. As I'm sitting here typing this, I still don't know who I'll go with on Sunday. I really don't like Cincy's matchup at San Diego, and I love Buffalo's quasi-home game against the Falcons. Aside from last year's blowout loss to Seattle at the Rogers Centre, these games in Toronto have been pretty low scoring. I like the Bills to win this one 20-16, and I think their defense will get to Matty Ice and company early and often.
We'll see what happens with the rest of the Week 13 games starting Sunday at 1:00. Good luck, everyone!
Cheers,
Bart
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