Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Week 10 Rankings

One play can have a huge impact.

When Aaron Rodgers went down at the end of Green Bay's first offensive series on Monday night, Packer fans held their breath.  So did a lot of fantasy football team owners.  I'm sure we'll know the extent of the injury fairly soon, but initial reports say the QB may miss 3 or 4 weeks.  I think this development makes that division wide open, as I'm not sure Seneca Wallace (or any other QB the Packers may sign this week...yes, even Matt Flynn) can get the Packers the wins they need.  Lucky for them, their next two games are against the NFC East, not the NFC North.  Great.  The Redskins get a healthy Green Bay team at Lambeau in Week 2, and now the Eagles and Giants get a completely different team that is decimated by injuries!  Like I said, one play can have a big ripple effect.

The injury also has serious fantasy implications for Green Bay's other position players.  If you're an Eddie Lacy owner (like the guy who beat me by 40 points in Week 9), you have to like what you saw after Rodgers exited the game last night.  Heck, I think James Starks even becomes a nice waiver wire add this week...and I didn't think I'd be saying that this season.  If you own a Packer WR, you now know how Randall Cobb owners felt in Week 5 after his injury against Baltimore.  I know because as a Jordy Nelson owner, I feel like I just lost him to injury for a few weeks.  But maybe it won't be that bad.  I mean, if teams watch the tape of last night, I don't see why they wouldn't just stack the box even more and force Green Bay to throw the ball.  The question is whether or not they can actually throw the ball.

Get well soon, Aaron!

On that note, let's get players from those six bye teams back into the rankings and get four more teams off the list.  Unless you own Jamaal Charles or any Patriots, you're probably not hurting too bad this week with these byes: Patriots, Chiefs, Jets, Browns.  But let's see what we have with the Week 10 rankings, shall we?

QBs
1.Drew Brees
2.Peyton Manning
3.Philip Rivers
4.Matthew Stafford
5.Tony Romo
6.Russell Wilson
7.Andrew Luck
8.Cam Newton
9.RGIII
10.Nick Foles
11.Ben Roethlisberger
12.Eli Manning
13.Colin Kaepernick
14.Andy Dalton
15.QB Bears
16.Jake Locker
17.Terrelle Pryor
18.Christian Ponder
19.Joe Flacco
20.Seneca Wallace

Don't worry.  I'll get you into the Friday update, Case.
In my Friday update, I added Case Keenum and Jason Campbell to the bottom of my rankings.  I didn't think Campbell would put up top-10 fantasy numbers again, but he sure did.  I did talk up Keenum a bit though, and he looked pretty good in just his second start.  But it was Luck who staged a huge comeback in the second half to give Indy the W.  Both QBs in that game were top-10 plays in Week 9, as were both signal callers in the Steelers/Patriots game.  Tom Brady looked like...well, the old Tom Brady again.  We'll have to wait until Week 11 to see if he keeps it rolling after his team's bye.

Last week I was high on Jake Locker (ESPN #15, ME #11), but he didn't put up big numbers against St. Louis.  He only attempted 22 passes, as it appears teams are sticking with the run against the Rams.  I'm keeping him pretty high this week though, as the Titans get a home game against the Jags.  People probably thought I was crazy being "down" on Drew Brees in Week 9 (ESPN #1, ME #4).  But like I said, Brees is putting up huge numbers at home and pretty good numbers on the road.  That held true again, as he posted around 20 fantasy points and finished outside of the top-10 in a good week for QBs around the league.  He's back at home this week against Dallas, so I have him back at the #1 spot.  The #1 fantasy QB in Week 9?  Nick Foles, who threw for SEVEN touchdowns against the Raiders.  He stays in my rankings this week, but I'm not having a knee jerk reaction and putting him in the top-5 or anything just yet.  He does get a nice matchup at Green Bay though, so I squeaked him into the top-10.
This "QB Bears" would work too

Currently, I'm not even ranking Matt Ryan.  It seems crazy, but he's had single-digit fantasy points in each of his last two games.  His WRs are still banged up, and he's facing one of the best passing defenses in the league this week with Seattle coming to town.  I might add him to the bottom of the list on Friday (along with Case Keenum), but I'd be looking for another option if I was a Ryan owner.  You know it's bad when Seneca Wallace makes the list and Matty Ice doesn't!  Also, you'll notice "QB Bears" at the #15 spot.  I don't care if it's McCown or Cutler.  I like either as a solid top-20 play this week at home against the Lions.

RBs
1.Adrian Peterson
2.Eddie Lacy
3.Marshawn Lynch
4.Matt Forte
5.Chris Johnson
6.Alfred Morris
7.Reggie Bush
8.LeSean McCoy   
9.Knowshon Moreno
10.Zac Stacy
11.Le'Veon Bell
12.CJ Spiller
13.Frank Gore
14.DeMarco Murray 
15.Maurice Jones-Drew
16.Danny Woodhead
17.Mike James
18.Pierre Thomas
19.Giovani Bernard 
20.Lamar Miller
21.Steven Jackson  
22.Andre Ellington
23.Rashad Jennings
24.Fred Jackson
25.Ray Rice
26.Ben Tate 
27.Trent Richardson
28.Ryan Mathews
29.Shonn Greene
30.Andre Brown
31.Donald Brown
32.Joique Bell
33.James Starks
34.Mike Tolbert
35.Montee Ball
36.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
37.Roy Helu, Jr.
38.Rashard Mendenhall
39.Jacquizz Rodgers
40.Daniel Thomas

I'll miss you, Zac...
Darren McFadden and Arian Foster owners were probably pretty upset on Sunday.  Both were active for their games, but both left early with injuries.  For McFadden, it was his hamstring (no surprise there).  But for Arian, it was a back injury.  So that's new.  The big story in Week 9 though was Zac Stacy.  He continues to run like a beast, and I'm selling high on him in my money league.  I'm made a deal which mostly broke down to Cam Newton and Zac Stacy for Peyton Manning.  I'm hoping that I'm not trading away a winning lottery ticket in Stacy, but I am getting a quarterback with a laser rocket arm in return.  So however it works out for Stacy, I think the trade will probably be OK for both teams involved.

I talked up Steven Jackson slightly last week (ESPN #25, ME #21), as he was in line to get 15-20 touches.  It was against a tough Carolina defense, but he did manage to get some decent yardage to land himself right in that range around the top-25.  On the other hand, I was way down on Fred Jackson against the Chiefs (ESPN #8, ME #17).  Kansas City had only given up 2 rushing TDs all season, not to mention the fewest points per game (12.2).  With CJ Spiller back in action, I lowered Jackson even more from Wednesday to Friday.  He finished with around 10 fantasy points (roughly his average over his last 4 games), and he was the #21 fantasy running back in Week 9.  It looks like Spiller is healthy again, and I'm ranking him well above Fred in a good matchup against the Steelers.  We'll see how the experts see it when their rankings come out later today.

Time to lower those Panther RBs!
Another older running back trending downward is DeAngelo Williams.  Jonathan Stewart returned to action last week, and as usual he looked better than Williams.  Add in the fact that Tolbert is now vulturing TDs on the regular, and DWill's stock is falling fast.  I'm actually only ranking Tolbert for now, as Carolina faces a tough defense this week in San Francisco.  We'll see if Stewart starts getting a bigger share of the workload for the Panthers, but until then, I might not be ranking either him or DeAngelo.

WRs
1.Calvin Johnson
2.Brandon Marshall
3.AJ Green  
4.Dez Bryant
5.Keenan Allen
6.Pierre Garcon 
7.Demaryius Thomas 
8.TY Hilton
9.Wes Welker 
10.DeSean Jackson 
11.Antonio Brown
12.Andre Johnson 
13.Victor Cruz 
14.Eric Decker 
15.Larry Fitzgerald
16.Vincent Jackson 
17.Torrey Smith 
18.Alshon Jeffery
19.Jordy Nelson
20.Denarius Moore
21.Riley Cooper
22.Terrance Williams
23.Cecil Shorts 
24.Lance Moore
25.Kendall Wright
26.Marvin Jones
27.Emmanuel Sanders
28.Golden Tate
29.Harry Douglas
30.Hakeem Nicks
31.Mike Wallace
32.Steve Smith
33.Anquan Boldin
34.Michael Floyd
35.Greg Jennings
36.Marlon Brown
37.Reuben Randle 
38.Kenny Stills
39.Brian Hartline
40.DeAndre Hopkins

Another good day for Allen, but a W for the Skins!
Three receivers broke the 30 point mark in Week 9: Andre Johnson, Riley Cooper, and T.Y. Hilton.  Another guy who had a big day was Keenan Allen, who I was high on last week (ESPN #18, ME #8).  I said he would easily get double-digit targets and fantasy points against my Redskins, and I wouldn't be surprised to see over 100 yards and a touchdown.  That's exactly what he did, albeit in a losing effort!  However, I was down on Emmanuel Sanders (ESPN #27, ME #33), who has been very inconsistent this year.  This past week against the Patriots, he actually saw 11 targets, six of which he hauled in for nearly 100 yards.  Needless to say, he cracked the top-25.  I guess we'll see if Big Ben continues to look his way in a nice matchup at home against Buffalo's secondary.

Marques Colston was a late scratch from last week's game against the Jets, and as of today, I'm not sure what his status will be for a great matchup against the Cowboys.  I'm ranking Lance Moore as the "#1 WR" for the Saints right now, even though he doesn't really fit that description.  As for the bottom of my list, I also considered guys like Kris Durham, Doug Baldwin, and Mike Brown.  It's totally understandable if you want to try one of them instead of a guy like James Jones or Stevie Johnson, based on their QBs/matchups (I had a hard time leaving those two veterans off the list for now, but their QB situations are not ideal).  We'll see who makes it into Friday's updated rankings.

Lance Moore went from off the radar to a top option for a high-powered offense!
TEs
1.Jimmy Graham
2.Vernon Davis
3.Jordan Reed
4.Julius Thomas
5.Antonio Gates
6.Jason Witten
7.Tony Gonzalez
8.Tim Wright
9.Garrett Graham
10.Martellus Bennett
11.Coby Fleener
12.Heath Miller

Let's make it 3 games in a row with a TD, Tim!
Graham and Gronk continued to perform in Week 9, and old guys Witten and Gonzalez actually put up some good numbers too (finally).  Greg Olson got a touchdown too, but he's not in my Wednesday top-12 this week in that matchup against the 49ers.  Jordan Cameron was shut down by the Ravens, and it was the other tight end Gary Barnidge who stole a TD on a goal line play.  Gary who?  Exactly.

Coby Fleener was targeted on the first two plays of the game for Indy, and I was getting excited.  But then he barely saw anything else his way until the 2 point conversion late in the game.  I hope Andrew Luck will watch the film and realize that he should just stop throwing to Heyward-Bey and give a few more targets to his old college buddy Fleener!  I like the matchups of Tim Wright and Garrett Graham much better than Fleener's this week anyway, and I've picked up Wright to play for my fantasy team on Monday Night Football.

DEF
1.Seahawks
2.Titans
3.49ers
4.Colts
5.Cardinals
6.Steelers
7.Dolphins
8.Texans
9.Giants
10.Ravens
11.Panthers 
12.Bengals

Seattle had an off day in Week 9, as they appeared to take the Bucs a little lightly (you can hardly blame them, right?).  They still got the win in the end, but their defense didn't look great.  On the other hand, the Chiefs continued to put up points on the defensive end, scoring two touchdowns against Buffalo.  Carolina also scored a defensive touchdown yet again, and I know it all to well since I was playing against them in my money league.  It stung because I had to waive them just a few days prior due to all of the other injuries on my team, and my opponent scooped them up and played them against me!  You can't see me right now, but I'm shaking both of my fists in the air.

Anyway, I can't exactly say "I told you so" about the Ravens (ESPN #14, ME #7) , as they let the Browns put up 24 points on them, and they were only able to force the one fumble in Cleveland.  On the other hand, I did warn you against playing the Colts (ESPN #6, ME #12) against the Texans on Sunday night.  I thought Case Keenum might actually lead the Texans to victory, and it almost happened too.  Either way, they also put up 24 points, and Indy was only able to manage one sack on the night.  Not a good day for the Colts D, but they should bounce back this week.

You weren't great last week, but you get the Rams at home in Week 10!
That's it for today, folks.  Check back on Friday for the updates!

Cheers,
Bart


2 comments:

  1. Wanted to sell high on Stacy as well, but just sold medium. Crossing my fingers it doesn't hurt me. I have a deep stable of RB's though (Lacy, Bush, Morris, and Rice). Peyton is my qb, just needed some WR help. Traded him for Cruz after trying a number of other options, but no one bit.

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    Replies
    1. With that RB depth, Stacy for Cruz sounds pretty legit to me!

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