Week 15 Rankings

It was nice having a first round bye in my fantasy playoffs, but it's back to business this week for the Pig Newtons.  Come to think of it, that name hasn't been appropriate for my team ever since Week 9 when I traded Cam away and got Peyton Manning.  The other players I traded in that deal were Zac Stacy and Montee Ball, and I'll be facing all of them this week against the guy I traded them to.  The deal has worked out for both of us so far, but this will be the true test.  It'll be tough if I lose to the very guys I traded away, but we'll just have to wait and see what happens.  Hopefully I play all of the right guys because I have some major dilemmas with guys on my bench.  But enough about me, let's do the rankings!

QBs 1.Peyton Manning 2.Drew Brees 3.Cam Newton 4.Nick Foles  5.Matthew Stafford 6.Tony Romo  7.Josh McCown 8.Russell Wilson 9.Philip Rivers 10.Andrew Luck 11.Alex Smith 12.Ben Roethlisberger 13.Tom Brady 14.Matt Ryan 15.Colin Kaepernick 16.Joe Flacco 17.Ryan Tannehill 18.Andy Dalton 19.Jason Campbell 20.Matt Flynn Stafford and the Lions struggled in the elements. I watched Fantasy Football Now on Sunday morning before the games, and the key takeaway was this: start your studs.  Some people (myself included) were a little concerned about guys like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, who were either going against tough defenses or playing in cold weather (or both in the case of Manning).  Well, nothing mattered for those two on Sunday, as both were top-5 fantasy QBs.  Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford and Nick Foles played in a snowstorm, which definitely had an affect on their high ranking.  If you started your stud there, you were very disappointed with Stafford, but Foles still had a solid day. I think the "start your studs" philosophy only gets your so far though.  After your top-10 QBs or top-20 WRs/RBs, you have to really consider the matchups.  And with defenses, I think you really have to look more closely at matchups...but more on that later. Andrew Luck was the #1 fantasy QB until Josh McCown went off on the Cowboys Monday night.  It'll be interesting to see if Cutler is finally ready to get back behind center or if Chicago just lets him get healthy another week.  They seem to be doing just fine with McCown, so I'm ranking him as though he'll continue to be the starter.  This week, the Bears travel to Cleveland to face a little better defense than the Cowboys.  But in Week 16, they play in Philly (nice matchup, as long as there's not another blizzard).  Bottom line: if you own McCown, you might want to own Culter too.  Or if you're still scrambling for a viable fantasy QB for the playoffs, Ryan Tannehill has been solid all year but I'm guessing is still available in your league.  While he hasn't put up huge numbers, his last two games have been his top-2 fantasy outputs of the season.  His schedule for the next two weeks includes the Patriots at home and the Bills on the road.  You could do worse. As for my QB picks, I seem to be on a bit of a rollercoaster lately.  One week I'm spot on and the next I'm way off.  I was way off in Week 14.  I was high on Ryan Fitzpatrick (ESPN #18, ME #12), who was facing a Denver defense who had surrendered over 20 fantasy points/game to opposing QBs since Week 10.  That streak ending with Fitzpatrick, who wasn't even able to do much in garbage time against the Broncos.  In fact, he's not even in my top-20 this week (and neither is Carson Palmer, who will be on the other side of the ball as the two face off against each other's tough pass defenses).  The guy I was down on was Ben Roethlisberger (ESPN #13, ME #17) because I was counting on the Dolphins to keep him in check (who had allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season).  Big Ben torched them in the close loss, and he ended up in the top-10 QBs.   Is it Kirk Cousins time for the rest of the season...? We'll see who I'm high and low on this week when ESPN's rankings come out later today, but hopefully I'll be back on the right side of the coin this week.  Oh, and if you're wondering about Aaron Rodgers or RGIII?  Yeah, me too.  For now, I'm not ranking either.  The Packers are still in the playoff picture, but I have a feeling they won't be rushing their franchise QB back in there.  As for RGIII, the word out of Washington is that Shanahan might go with Cousins this week in Atlanta.  There's more to that story, but I'll just leave it at that.  Even if Griffin gets the start, I'd be worried about Cousins coming into the game in the second half and ruining my fantasy playoffs. RBs 1.Jamaal Charles 2.LeSean McCoy 3.Matt Forte 4.Marshawn Lynch 5.DeMarco Murray 6.Knowshon Moreno 7.Eddie Lacy 8.Zac Stacy 9.Maurice Jones-Drew  10.Alfred Morris 11.Shane Vereen 12.Andre Brown 13.Steven Jackson  14.Rashad Jennings 15.Ryan Mathews 16.Ben Tate 17.Giovani Bernard 18.Frank Gore 19.Le'Veon Bell 20.Toby Gerhart 21.Bobby Rainey 22.Montee Ball 23.Fred Jackson 24.Pierre Thomas 25.CJ Spiller  26.Daniel Thomas 27.Joique Bell 28.Ray Rice 29.Andre Ellington 30.Danny Woodhead 31.Chris Johnson 32.Chris Ivory  33.Donald Brown  34.Chris Ogbonnaya 35.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 36.Rashard Mendenhall  37.Stevan Ridley 38.DeAngelo Williams 39.Darren Sproles 40.Mike Tolbert I need you, Reggie! LeSean McCoy blew up on the Lions and was the top fantasy RB in Week 14.  Of course it was a week that I didn't need him to do that since I had the bye.  Oh well.  Hopefully he can do it again on what would appear to be a weaker defense in Minnesota.  The other top RB on my squad, Shane Vereen, was also in the top-5 last week.  Man, I hope these guys left something in the tank for Week 15 because I'll need them, especially if Reggie Bush stays sidelined with that calf injury!  Speaking of Reggie, I'm not ranking him for now, but I'm hoping we'll find out more soon on whether or not he'll play on Monday night against Baltimore.  For now, your guess is as good as mine.  If he's hit with a "questionable" tag going into MNF, I'll probably be making other plans and going with someone else in a Sunday game. Some other top RBs had solid weeks, including Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, and Knowshon Moreno (all in the top-10).  The guy I was high on last week was DeMarco Murray (ESPN #9, ME #2), who had over 150 total yards but who also finished just outside of the top-10.  He couldn't find the end zone like those other guys, which kept him from being the elite option I thought he'd be.  But he did finish ahead of other top options like Eddie Lacy and Marshawn Lynch...not to mention Adrian Peterson, who left his game early with an injury.  Peterson owners will want to scoop up Gerhart if possible, as it sounds like AP will be questionable Sunday against the Eagles.  It's hard to bet against him, but with the Vikings not playing for anything, it might not be totally up to him on whether he plays or not. As for the RB I was down on, Zac Stacy (ESPN #15, ME #23) actually finished outside of the top-30.  Arizona continues to give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, as they held Stacy to 25 rushing yards and a TD.  I was thinking he'd get around 75 total yards and no TD, but close enough.  Hopefully he doesn't bounce back this week (because I'm playing against him), but I think he'll do much better than 8 fantasy points.  In fact, he's back inside my top-12 with a much better matchup at home against New Orleans.  As for the RB going up against Arizona this week?  That would be Chris Johnson, who I've moved way down in my rankings...just ahead of Chris Ivory, who is facing a tough Panther D on the road. WRs 1.Calvin Johnson 2.Josh Gordon 3.Alshon Jeffery 4.Demaryius Thomas  5.Andre Johnson   6.AJ Green 7.Dez Bryant 8.Eric Decker 9.Antonio Brown 10.DeSean Jackson 11.Keenan Allen 12.Torrey Smith 13.Larry Fitzgerald 14.Brandon Marshall  15.Vincent Jackson 16.Roddy White  17.Riley Cooper 18.Pierre Garcon 19.Julian Edelman  20.Jordy Nelson 21.Marques Colston  22.Cecil Shorts 23.Dwayne Bowe  24.Anquan Boldin 25.Harry Douglas 26.Victor Cruz  27.Michael Floyd 28.Mike Wallace 29.Steve Smith  30.Brian Hartline 31.TY Hilton  32.Golden Tate 33.Rod Streater 34.Michael Crabtree 35.Cordarrelle Patterson   36.Stevie Johnson 37.Kendall Wright 38.Da'Rick Rogers   39.James Jones 40.Emmanuel Sanders Even though Week 14 was the highest-scoring week in NFL history, a few of the top WRs didn't get in on the action.  Megatron missed out on the big day, and Torrey Smith didn't do much against the hapless Viking secondary.  I'll look for Torrey to bounce back in Detroit on Monday Night Football, and I'm keeping him as a WR1 again this week.  The #1 fantasy WR in Week 14 was Josh Gordon, who continues to tear it up.  Surprisingly, tied with him for the most fantasy points was Marques Colston, who easily had his biggest game of the year.  Good luck guessing when he'll put up 1 point or 20 points this year though. Speaking of guessing, let's look at my calls last week.  I was high on Doug Baldwin (ESPN #55, ME #31), whose decent performance as of late ended in San Francisco.  He was held to only 3 catches for 26 yards, and he made me look like a big dummy.  Also making me look silly was Steve Smith (ESPN #31, ME #38).  The guy hadn't scored or had more than 7 fantasy points since Week 7, but I called him out.  So naturally, he hauled in 6 catches for 49 yards and a score against New Orleans on Sunday night.  This fantasy ranking thing truly can feel like a guessing game at times, but I'm trying not to move Smith or Colston up too  much in my rankings.  Both have been too inconsistent to warrant a big knee-jerk reaction, especially as we're now right in the middle of the fantasy playoffs.  As for Baldwin, he's falling back off my radar for now. Really, Steve Smith?  Really...?!? I was worried about the Denver WRs last week, but they all produced pretty well.  Wes Welker suffered his second concussion in recent weeks, so I'm guessing he may be sidelined for tomorrow night's game.  This has me moving Demaryius and Decker both back into my top-12, and I hope they both have HUGE games. TEs 1.Jimmy Graham 2.Julius Thomas 3.Vernon Davis 4.Jordan Cameron 5.Tony Gonzalez 6.Jason Witten  7.Greg Olsen 8.Delanie Walker 9.Charles Clay 10.Coby Fleener 11.Dennis Pitta  12.Garrett Graham Last week, I talked a lot about tight ends.  But the surprise of the week for me was that Antonio Gates, while nowhere near a top-10 TE like ESPN continues to rank him, did outperform Ladarius Green (who was held without a catch).  The tight end situation in San Diego is an enigma for me right now, and I'm not ranking either for tomorrow night's game in Denver.  Last week I was down on Martellus Bennett (ESPN #9, ME not ranked), who has been downright mediocre since the first few weeks of the season.  He finished with 4 fantasy points, as I predicted.  However, I was high on Heath Miller (ESPN #18, ME #10), who only received 4 targets.  He converted those targets into 3 catches for 56 yards, and while it wasn't a huge game, he did outperform guys like Greg Olsen and Coby Fleener. It's going to be tough to bench Pitta after last week.. Speaking of Fleener, I'll need him to produce for my squad this week.  He has a nice matchup against Houston, but it's so tempting to start Dennis Pitta after his performance against the Vikings in his return from injury.  I have them at 10 and 11 this week, but I think I'll probably go with Fleener and the better matchup (we'll see though).  The big tight end news in Week 14 was that Rob Gronkowski shredded his knee and is lost for the season.  Add him to the list of other injured tight ends, which still includes Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker.  I won't be ranking Reed until I hear something definitive about his return, but I'm feeling good about Walker coming back this week.  The Titans released one-week-fill-in Visanthe Shiancoe, which tells me that Delanie should be on track to play against the Cardinals (who are still giving up the most fantasy points to the TE position this year). DEF 1.Panthers   2.Seahawks 3.Chiefs 4.49ers 5.Saints 6.Cardinals 7.Bengals 8.Jags  9.Eagles 10.Bills   11.Patriots 12.Steelers   My top-ranked defense last week was Arizona, and they finished 2nd behind Tampa Bay.  What was surprising to me with the ESPN rankings is just how cautious and safe they felt.  I was down on the Seahawks (ESPN #1, ME #7), and I mainly talked about them because they were the consensus  #1 defense from ESPN in Week 14.  They finished 14th, right behind the defense I was high on: the Green Bay Packers (ESPN #22, ME #11).  Maybe I just play the matchups on defense more than the ESPN guys do, but again, those rankings were just a little too safe for me. This week, I'm going to try not to be too hypocritical, but a lot of the top defenses have much better matchups than they did in Week 14.  You'll notice Carolina up at the top spot, as they host the Jets, who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year.  I also have Seattle right behind them, as they travel to face the other New York team (the Giants are giving up the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing fantasy defenses this season).  Then you'll see KC, San Fran, and New Orleans (all top defenses).  Hey, they have great matchups too!  You won't see the Rams or Bucs too high on the list though.  They're both top-10 fantasy defenses on the season, but their matchups are less-than-ideal.  I'm still holding out on Cincy though, as they'll probably be in my starting lineup on Sunday night.  I'm hoping they play inspired after giving up a lot of points to Indy, albeit in a victory.  Not to mention they're playing a huge division game in Pittsburgh.  It should be interesting... Good luck to everyone in Week 15 (except for you of course, Mac...sorry buddy).  Check back Friday for my injury/ranking update and a recap of tomorrow night's game, which hopefully includes 10 TDs off the laser-rocket arm of Peyton Manning. Cheers, Bart