This is by far my favorite preseason article to write. Based on the title, you can probably tell I've been writing it for a while now. If you're new to it, it's basically just a Q&A format that includes some of my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc.
You may or may not remember Zac Stacy. He was barely a flash in the pan. For me, it just feels right to name this preseason piece after him because that's when I started writing it. Who was last year's Zac Stacy? Clearly it was James Robinson. Does that mean Robinson will do nothing this year? Before the Etienne injury, I thought that was possible. Now, not so much. I think he'll be fine.
This article points out several trends I've noticed during the years I've been writing about fantasy football, and I've hand picked a guy to fit each category for the 2021 season. There's not always a player who fits each category, but as you'll see, it happens more often than not. We'll see if I can get one or two of these right again this year. Let's go!
[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues. He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]
A: Kenneth Gainwell
Obviously someone like Najee Harris doesn't fit into this category. The same can be said for Javonte Williams, Tre Sermon and Michael Carter. These rookies are being drafted in nearly every league, so we have to dig deeper for this year's Zac Stacy. With a new coaching staff in Philly, I think it's possible Miles Sanders isn't THE guy in this backfield. It might take an injury to Sanders, but it might not. If Gainwell gets the opportunity, maybe he just takes over as the top RB for the Eagles.
Honorable Mention: Jaret Patterson
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), Raheem Mostert (2019), or Nyheim Hines/J.D. McKissic (2020)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
A: Kenyan Drake
To be fair, Hines and McKissic both finished just outside the top-20 in half PPR and inside the top-20 in full PPR last year. But I listed them both for this category even though neither quite finished in the top-20 for half PPR. Anyway, I was going to write about Gus Edwards here, but I can't do that now with the Dobbins injury. Instead I'll focus on Kenyan Drake, who is being drafted outside of the top-40 RBs but could certainly finish in the top-20 if Josh Jacobs gets injured or falters in any way. Or maybe this is just more of a timeshare and Drake is heavily involved in the passing game. Either way, he might just end up finding his way into the top-20, and I don't think anyone expects him to do so.
Honorable Mention: James Conner
Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), A.J. Brown (2019), or Tee Higgins (2020)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-25 fantasy WR.]
A: Rondale Moore
This happens almost every year, but it's always hard to predict with so many promising rookie WRs. Last year I actually got this one right with Tee Higgins. This year, I'm going with Rondale Moore. I think he could be a big time playmaker in this offense, and I'm going to assume A.J. Green will be dealing with a season-ending injury by Week 3. Moore could end up being the #2 WR in this high powered offense.
Honorable Mention: Terrace Marshall, Jr.
Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), Lamar Jackson (2019), or Kyler Murray/Josh Allen (2020)?
[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]
A: Tua Tagovailoa
I nailed this one in 2019 with Lamar, and then I crashed and burned by saying Daniel Jones could take a leap in 2020. This year I'm trying a second year leap again with Tua. The Dolphins got him some more weapons with Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, and Tua is another year healthier/removed from that serious hip injury. You can draft him outside of the top-20 QBs right now, and I don't see why he couldn't take that next step and be in the QB1 conversation this year. For comparison, his draft class mate Joe Burrow is already being drafted near the QB1 territory. He's my honorable mention here because he could also be in that mix. But I like Tua's lower round value way better.
Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow
Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), Alex Collins (2017), or Tarik Cohen (2018)?
[Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2021.]
A: Zack Moss
This trend was happening every year until Rashaad Penny got hurt and couldn't do it in 2019 and then Darrell Henderson was overtaken by Cam Akers last year. Let's see if this gets back on track for 2021. And if not, I'll just remove this from the article moving forward. If the trend is over, let's ditch it. But this year I really think Zack Moss could end up leading a timeshare and finish as a top-20 fantasy RB. As long as Moss gets a bunch of goal line work and Josh Allen doesn't have like 8 rushing touchdowns, I feel confident in Moss over Singletary in Buffalo.
Honorable Mention: AJ Dillon
Q: Who is this year's Julius Thomas (2013), Antonio Gates (2014), Gary Barnidge (2015), Kyle Rudolph (2016), Evan Engram (2017), Eric Ebron and Jared Cook (2018), Darren Waller (2019), or Robert Tonyan (2020)?
[Description: A tight end who is virtually undrafted in fantasy leagues and ends up being a top-5 TE.]
A: Austin Hooper
I really feel like Austin Hooper could have a 2015 Gary Barnidge kind of season. Hooper had some good years in Atlanta, but he struggled a bit in his first year as a Brown. If he can get a full season in without injury, I think he'll end up with 100 targets and could push for a top-5 TE spot.
Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett
I'll post at least one more article before Week 1 of the regular season, and until then, good luck in your drafts! |
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