Fantasy Football 2021 End of Year Review

Like pretty much everyone I know it seems, COVID has finally infiltrated our household.  With two kids in daycare around other snot-nosed monsters who have no sense of social distancing, it was only a matter of time.  In fact, I'm surprised we've lasted this long.  

In any event, life has been busy the last week or so, and I haven't had much time to balance work, kids, and make some time for (gasp!)...myself.  But I'm finally sitting down to do my end of year review, where I look back at my preseason articles and see what I got right and what I got wrong.  This article tends to be super long, and every year I honestly try to make it shorter.  I won't recap every pick from every article.  If you want to go back and look at everything I wrote this summer, you're welcome to do so.  I'll include a hyperlink in each section below.  But for today, I'll just play the hits.  

If you've checked out my rankings this year, you likely know I had a decent amount of success in the FantasyPros expert accuracy competition (finishing 8th on the season!).  With that came a lot of new followers on Twitter, and I really do appreciate it.  I'm sure a lot of you only care about the weekly rankings for start/sit decisions during the season, but this is a year round thing I do here, so buckle in!  

That's not to say I'll be posting things every week during the offseason.  In fact, things will be relatively quiet over the next couple of months.  But I'll have my first edition of 2022 rankings out soon, and the NFL Draft will be here before you know it.  So stay tuned.

For now, let's go back and look at my preseason picks, shall we?

Who is this year's Alfred Morris?

I'm renaming this article on the fly because after that domestic violence video of Zac Stacy surfaced, it feels much better giving my man Alfred top billing.  Anyway, this is by far my favorite preseason article to write every year.  It's a Q&A format that includes my picks for "sleeper", "bust", "long shot", etc. based on historical trends.  I've revisited a few below to discuss the actual results and highlight a couple I almost got right too.

Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Phillip Lindsay (2018), Devin Singletary (2019), or James Robinson (2020)?

[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is virtually UNDRAFTED in fantasy leagues.  He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]

My Preseason Answer: Kenneth Gainwell

Honorable Mention: Jaret Patterson

End of season ACTUAL Answer: Elijah Mitchell

Guys like Najee Harris and Javonte Williams are excluded from this category because they were both drafted too highly in real life and/or fantasy.  But Eli Mitchell basically grabbed this backfield from Day 1 and never really looked back (outside of injury).  He ended up as the RB26 on the year, but he was really better than that because he was RB16 in fantasy points per game.  As for Gainwell, I was actually feeling pretty good about him about a month into the season.  But then the Eagles started playing guys like Boston Scott and Jordan Howard in October, and Gainwell fell back in the pecking order.  Still, he showed signs of being a playmaker and could be the 1b in this backfield next season.

Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), Chris Thompson (2017), James White (2018), Raheem Mostert (2019), or Nyheim Hines/J.D. McKissic (2020)?

[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

My Preseason Answer: Kenyan Drake

Honorable Mention: James Conner

End of season ACTUAL Answer: James Conner

At least I nailed my honorable mention here, but Drake wasn't close to sniffing the top-20 even before his Week 13 ankle injury.  On the other hand, Conner ended the season with 15 touchdowns and was the RB7.  And honestly, it felt like a sneaky top-10 finish because even by midseason I feel like people weren't giving him enough credit as a top fantasy running back.  He was a bit touchdown dependent, but the guy scored so many...who cares?!

Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017), Calvin Ridley (2018), A.J. Brown (2019), or Tee Higgins (2020)?

[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability who is a late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-25 fantasy WR.]

My Preseason Answer: Rondale Moore

Honorable Mention: Terrace Marshall, Jr.

End of season ACTUAL Answer: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Like with the first RB category, guys like Ja'Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle were drafted too highly for consideration here.  But Amon-Ra St. Brown was a top-5 WR down the stretch and ended up as the WR27 on the season (and WR21 if you include Week 18).  He's the closest person to fitting this category, and he did it with Jared Freaking Goff (his given name) most of the season.  He should get bonus points for that.

Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), Lamar Jackson (2019), or Kyler Murray/Josh Allen (2020)?

[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump from one fantasy QB tier to the next.]

My Preseason Answer: Tua Tagovailoa

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow

End of season ACTUAL Answer: Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow 

You could have drafted Tua outside of the top-20 QBs this year, so I liked him as a deeper sleeper to maybe finish in the top-12.  Joe Burrow was already being drafted near QB1 territory back in August, but finishing as the QB5, he definitely took an even bigger leap than expected.  As for Herbert, he finished as the QB2 so he made that leap and then some.  Both guys will be selected as top-10 QBs in drafts next season, and deservingly so.

Someone to draft on all 32 teams

Back in the summer, I looked at every team in the NFL and tried to find one "value" guy on each squad who I liked the most based on his ADP at that time (Average Draft Position - using FantasyPros as my reference for half PPR leagues).  Let's take a look back at a few guys I wrote about in that article who outperformed their preseason ADP (and a few who didn't). 

NOTE: End of season finishes are based on Weeks 1-17.

Good calls!

Damien Harris - Overall ADP 75, End of season RB13

Mike Williams - Overall ADP 121, End of season WR15

Darnell Mooney - Overall ADP 139, End of season WR26

Marquez Callaway - Overall ADP 193, End of season WR35

Excluding injuries, not-so-good calls

Tre Sermon - Overall ADP 93, End of season RB93

Zack Moss - Overall ADP 94, End of season RB49

Trevor Lawrence - Overall ADP 128, End of season QB23 (QB38 in PPG, yuck!)

T.Y. Hilton - Overall ADP 153, End of season WR95

The funny thing is, one of my big takeaways from this article a season ago was "Will Fuller needs PEDs to stay healthy."  And yet, I didn't learn because I wrote about him again before the 2021 season.  The guy played in two games this year and never saw the field after that.  I didn't include players like him in my summary above because with so many injuries in the NFL every year, about half of my list doesn't really fit into a good call or bad call bucket.  Anyway, on to the next one...

Top 12 Predictions for each position

As a reminder: These were NOT my preseason position rankings.  

My preseason/draft rankings always have a ton of factors built into them, but these were my preseason predictions for who could finish in the top-12 at each position in a best case scenario with fully healthy seasons.  I highlighted in BOLD the guys who actually finished in the top-12 at their position this year.

My preseason top-12 QBs 

Kyler Murray 
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Russell Wilson

Justin Fields
Tom Brady

Josh Allen 

Matthew Stafford

Dak Prescott  

Derek Carr

Aaron Rodgers

Kirk Cousins

At first glance, it feels a bit embarrassing that I didn't even include Herbert or Burrow in this list.  But you know, aside from them, Jalen Hurts is the only other guy I didn't get in this top-12.  I even nailed guys like Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins for goodness sake!  And Lamar was the QB8 in fantasy PPG, so he would've made this list had it not been for that late season injury.  So my only real misses here were Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.  Wilson had been a perennial top-10 fantasy QB prior to this season, and Fields was always a bold/longshot call.  I'd say I did fairly well with this list.

My preseason top-12 RBs 

Dalvin Cook 

Ezekiel Elliott 

Christian McCaffrey

Derrick Henry 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Gus Edwards

Jonathan Taylor

Nick Chubb

Austin Ekeler

AJ Dillon

Chris Carson

Sony Michel

I had a lot of wild cards in this preseason list, and injuries derailed a bunch of these guys.  Sony Michel was probably my craziest pick, and he ended up as a top-30 RB!  AJ Dillon finished as RB22 and was an Aaron Jones injury away from finishing where I had him.  Looking back, I don't really hate any of these picks (even the long shots).

My preseason top-12 WRs 
Tyreek Hill

Calvin Ridley

Davante Adams 

A.J. Brown

Justin Jefferson

DeAndre Hopkins 

Stefon Diggs

Robert Woods

Jerry Jeudy

Chris Godwin

Will Fuller 

D.J. Moore

Will Fuller is officially dead to me.  I mean, if he could stay healthy, I'm sure he could be a top-12 fantasy WR.  But it looks like that will never happen.  This list is littered with disappointment, but you have to take some shots.  No one knew Calvin Ridley would sit most of the season due to a non-injury, and guys like Robert Woods and A.J. Brown could've been up there if healthy.  But that "if healthy" thing is certainly a trend here.  It sure makes all of this predicting difficult.

My preseason top-12 TEs 
Darren Waller

Travis Kelce 

Kyle Pitts

Mark Andrews

Austin Hooper

George Kittle

Tyler Higbee

Noah Fant

T.J. Hockenson

Jonnu Smith

Cole Kmet

Gerald Everett

Austin Hooper LOL.  I mean, that was just a bad call.  I thought he could end up on this list based on his second year in the system, more targets, etc.  He barely finished as a top-25 fantasy TE this year.  Wow.  Hockenson finished 13th, so I was close to getting half of this list right.  And let's be honest, for the tight end position, that's not too bad.

If you made it to the bottom of this article, congrats.  Thanks for reading, and as always feel free to hit me up on Twitter so we can keep the conversation going this offseason.