2020 Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

If you have a deep roster and/or are in a shallow league, you may find yourself with some tough decisions to make on a weekly basis.  Last week I had a number of tough decisions to make in one league:

1. Justin Jackson versus James Robinson

2. Robert Tonyan versus Jared Cook

3. Matt Ryan versus Matthew Stafford

I talked a lot about the first one in my Week 7 intro, and in the end I ranked Robinson one spot higher so I plugged him into my second RB spot.  That turned out to be the right call because Robinson continued to produce, and he's looking to be both matchup and game script proof.  I also had Cook one spot higher than Tonyan, so I went with the Saint (also turned out to be the right call).  In the case of Ryan versus Stafford, the right call might've actually been neither.  I went with Ryan, but the difference was negligible.  And if it weren't for the crazy ending that could only happen to the Falcons in 2020, Ryan would've been the right call.

But in reality, all of those calls could've been wrong because they were all very close leading up to kickoff (at least in my eyes).  I could've easily gone the other way on all three, and I'm especially glad I went with Robinson.  I'm also happy that my leaguemates didn't accept any of my trade offers earlier in the season that included Robinson.  He's really been helping me out in that league.  What a nice surprise in 2020!

As usual, I'm more than happy to answer your start/sit questions on Twitter, but most can be answered just by checking the rankings below.  If you have any specific questions about waivers, trade offers, league issues, or breaking news as it happens...hit me up on Twitter @bartonwheeler.  

Trust the process, start your studs, work the waiver wire, and sometimes just listen to your gut!

As a reminder, I'm also keeping my Rest of Season Rankings up to date.  Check those out if you're curious about a guy's value for the second half of the season.  For now, let's get into the Week 8 rankings!

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QBs

One guy I liked last week as a top-10 play and the ECR didn't was Joe Burrow.  With Mixon out, I thought Burrow would continue to air it out against a Cleveland team he lit up in Week 2.  He did it one better in Week 7 and finished as a top-5 fantasy QB.  He has a plus matchup against Tennessee this week, and I have both him and Justin Herbert as top-10 plays.  With Tua making his first start against the Rams, it could be just a matter of time before all three rookie QBs are ranked in the top-12.  Time will tell with Tua, but as for Burrow, I'm still going against the current ECR with him this week.  I just think he's a top-10 fantasy QB in good matchups, especially if Mixon is out again (which I expect to be the case).

On the flipside, I'm actually a little down on Tom Brady here in Week 8.  He was great against the Raiders last week, but he hasn't exactly been a consistent top-12 option this year (or most years in his career to be honest).  Sure, he's the GOAT.  But for fantasy, he's had some pretty inconsistent seasons.  I still have him in my top-10 as of right now.  I just don't have him in my top-5.  I feel like there's a chance he doesn't need to throw the ball 35+ times this week against the Giants, and he's been pretty average in two of three games this year without Chris Godwin.  You might be starting him regardless, but maybe not considering he could've easily been the second QB you drafted late.

RBs

I was high on Justin Jackson last week (+7 vs ECR), but he didn't do much in a cake matchup against the Jags.  I'm very curious to see how the split between Jackson and Kelley is this week against a tougher Bronco defense.  The Charger RB who emerges (if any) could be in line for some good production while Ekeler likely continues to miss time in Weeks 9 through 11: LV, @MIA, NYJ.  

I was down on Damien Harris against the 49ers in Week 7, and my thought was James White is the only back to play in this Patriot backfield right now.  Well, Harris had an OK game and White was an afterthought.  It was strange considering the Patriots were playing from behind all day, but maybe there isn't much useful intel to get from this game.  If anything, I will keep all Patriot RBs fairly low until this situation clears up.  Just keep in mind that especially with Cam getting goal line work, it may stay cloudy all year.

This week, I'm pretty low on Zeke on Sunday Night Football.  Like my Brady take, it might not be super useful because it's not like I'm ranking him outside of my top-25 RBs.  The current ECR has him as a top-5 play, but I have him down at #12.  With the Cowboys likely starting Ben DiNucci (a rookie out of JMU) against the Eagles, I'm not confident this offense will move the ball against the Eagles.  Sure, Elliott will probably get his usual 20-25 touches.  I'm just nervous that those touches won't produce enough for him to be a top fantasy running back this week.

WRs

I was down on Terry McLaurin for the second week in a row, and I thought he'd end up outside of the top-20 WRs again.  He broke for a touchdown and nearly had another on his way to a top-12 finish.  While I was way off with that one call, I actually ended up as the #4 WR ranker in Week 7, so maybe I shouldn't have called out McLaurin and focused on literally anyone else!

Speaking of the FantasyPros expert accuracy competition, I finished as the #2 ranker in Week 6, and I backed that up in Week 7 with the #13 finish.  Not bad!  I'm hoping to keep this momentum going here in Week 8, and that goes for my betting picks as well.  I had been going back and forth between good and bad weeks, but I finally strung together a couple of good weeks.  Some people don't believe in momentum when it comes to sports, and I wonder if those people extend that line of thinking to other things.  But I'm not one of those people, so I don't know.  I'm trying to keep this Big Mo rolling!

Cheers,

Bart

2020 Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

As you can imagine, a lot of factors go into these weekly rankings.  

And since I like ranking things, I thought I'd rank those factors:

1. Production (recent > past)

2. Usage - targets/touches

3. Matchup - opposing defense good/bad versus run/pass

4. Talent aka "Is this person good at football?"

5. Injuries (player I'm ranking > teammates of the player I'm ranking)

6. Is his team good? / Expected point total (higher = good for fantasy)

7. Gut feel / high upside or risk of a player

8. How many leagues am I facing this player in? If two or more, I'm definitely bumping him up my rankings because he's bound to produce.

After 6 weeks of the NFL season, I feel like we have enough data to start making bigger adjustments for matchups in these weekly rankings.  In Week 1, I probably would've ranked talent above matchup because we just didn't really know.  Now we have a clearer picture of which defenses are overall good units and which are good or bad in specific areas.  So matchup is becoming more and more important.

Let me walk you through an example of a tough decision I have in my rankings below (as well as in one of my fantasy teams): Justin Jackson versus James Robinson.  

These two teams are actually playing each other this week, so I can put one in a FLEX spot and swap out with the other if I have a last-minute change of heart.  I have them super close in my rankings, and their talent is probably close enough to be a wash.  Robinson definitely has the edge on usage, but I feel like Jackson has the slight edge on recent production (albeit a small sample size of really just one game against the Saints before his bye).  Then we get to matchup, and the Chargers have been fairly middle of the road against running backs this year.  But the Jags on the other hand...oh man.  They continue to get gashed on the ground.  Just last week, Detroit's RBs had over 150 rushing yards and 3 TDs against Jacksonville.  The week before that, David Johnson had nearly 100 rushing yards on just 17 carries.  Joe Mixon had his huge game against the Jaguars the week before that.  I could go on, but you get the point: start your RBs against the Jags.  Jacksonville is more than a touchdown road underdog per Vegas, so I expect Minshew to be passing a bit more in this game.  That doesn't mean Robinson will necessarily get game scripted out because his usage has been great.  But the Chargers are likely going to score more points in this game, so that also factors in as I mentioned above.  

I used this example to say it's time to start paying more attention to matchups, but this also gives you some insight into all of the things going through my brain when I'm doing these rankings.  And in case you missed it, I also posted my Rest of Season Rankings earlier this week, so check those out if you're into that kind of thing.

OK. Let's get to the Week 7 rankings!

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QBs

Last week I talked up Ryan Tannehill and Fitzpatrick as top-12 plays, and I pointed out how Matt Ryan hadn't thrown a touchdown pass in October yet.  Well, it turns out getting Julio Jones back was pretty important because Matt Ryan threw 4 touchdowns and was the #2 fantasy QB in Week 6.  I started Matthew Stafford over Matt Ryan in one league and it was the wrong call, but I still won that matchup.  This week those two play each other, and I'm once again struggling with which one to start!  As for Tannehill and Fitzpatrick, they were top-12 fantasy QBs last week too.  It was a good week if you have "Ryan" in your name I guess.

This week the Dolphins are on a bye and have declared Tua their starter moving forward, so not so great of a week for that Ryan.  I still have plenty of confidence in the other two though.  Yes, the matchup against Pittsburgh isn't great for Tannehill, but why should you doubt him at this point?  I say roll him out there until he gives you a reason not to.  One guy I like as a top-10 play and the ECR doesn't is Joe Burrow.  It looks like Mixon might be a little banged up with a foot injury, and the Browns are a little banged up in the secondary.  I think Burrow at home against Cleveland is a pretty tasty matchup.  He was a top-10 fantasy QB against this squad in Week 2, so why can't he do it again?!

RBs

I was high on Phillip Lindsay last week, and the ECR caught up by kickoff with Melvin Gordon out.  I said he was in for a big game if he had the backfield mostly to himself (which he did). Lindsay rushed for over 100 yards on 23 carries but wasn't involved in the passing game.  He finished just outside of the top-20 RBs in Week 6, but the usage was great.  I was way down on Malcolm Brown (-12 vs ECR), and one of the reasons was because McVay had hinted that Cam Akers would get more work.  Well, Akers played exactly one snap, so that wasn't the case.  But Henderson remained the hot hand, and he just might continue to lead this committee for the foreseeable future.  In any event, Brown wasn't involved much, and you should feel free to drop him.

This week I'm high on Justin Jackson (+9 vs ECR), and I explained why in the intro to this piece.  I'm way down on Damien Harris, who I am not trusting with a 10-foot pole now that Cam is back.  James White is the only back to play in this Patriot backfield right now.  Harris had just 7 touches against the Broncos last week, and Cam figures to keep the goal line carries to himself.  The ECR has Damien as a top-30 play, but I have him about 10 spots lower.

WRs

I pointed out last week that it's finally WR1 season for A.J. Brown.  He ended up with 5 catches for 56 yards and a pair of touchdowns, which landed him in the top-5.  I wasn't big on Terry McLaurin against the Giants, but he did OK.  ECR had him as the WR18 play, but he was way down at WR28 for me (and that's pretty much right where he finished).  I'll probably be down on him again because he'll likely get shadow coverage from Trevon Diggs, who has been playing really well this year.  He's one of the few bright spots on an otherwise terrible Cowboy defense, so I'm a little concerned that McLaurin could end up outside of the top-20 WRs again.

This week it looks like I'm fairly high versus ECR on both Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks.  Look, Watson has been playing lights out since BOB got the boot. Some of that is certainly good matchups, but Green Bay hasn't looked like a tough matchup this year.  I think Watson will be a top-5 QB again this week, and both Fuller and Cooks could both be top-25 WRs.

Below are my betting picks for Week 7 if you're interested.  I got a little back on track in Week 6, but so far this season I've been ping ponging between good and bad weeks.  As always, I'll adjust these a bit leading up to kickoff for each game.

Cheers,

Bart

2020 Fantasy Football Rest of Season Rankings

As I'm sitting here watching game 2 of a Monday Night Football double-header, I thought I'd finally post some Rest of Season Rankings.  I've been working on these and keeping them up to date for a couple of weeks now, but it just feels silly posting them after like Week 2.  After Week 6?  Sure, why not?

I will update these rankings periodically but at least weekly, and likely it'll be on Monday or Tuesday after most games have been played.  Hopefully this list will help you when considering trade offers, but it can also be helpful to see the big picture on a player rather than kneejerk reactions that can occur on a weekly basis.  If you have any questions about these ROS rankings, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @bartonwheeler!

Cheers,
Bart

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

2020 Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings

On Monday night, I was actually stressing over whether or not I should play Justin Jackson in my FLEX or wait to play Diggs on Tuesday night.  With the uncertainty around the Titans and their Covid mess, I almost just played it safe with Jackson.  I was down a little over 8 points, and Jackson got that in the last drive of regulation.  Believe me, I was paying attention to see if I'd have regret of not playing him.  In the end, it didn't matter because Diggs had an even better game than Jackson and I won my matchup.  

But this highlights a bigger issue with the uncertainty around these games with teams dealing with Covid issues.  Many fantasy football leagues are implementing rules like replacement subs, expanding rosters for added flexibility, etc.  We've been chatting about this in one of my leagues for what feels like forever, but it's really only been a few days.  We've finally settled on a solution after multiple rounds of voting and of course not everyone being happy with the results.  But in the end, we have extra flexibility with our rosters for this season, and we'll likely just revert back to normal next year.  But who knows?  Maybe we'll like the expanded rosters, and people will realize the waiver wire actually isn't that thin.  Or maybe it'll increase trades.  Time will tell.

As for Week 6, let's get into the rankings, shall we?

Cheers,

Bart

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QBs

Last week felt like a make or break week for Daniel Jones against a bad Dallas defense, and he fell on his face again.  I still feel like he can get back on track, but how many chances should I give him?  I'm certainly not trusting him enough to start him in any leagues, but I'm still holding out hope he could turn it around in the second half of the season.  Maybe it's the definition of insanity thing.  I don't know.

This week, I have two Ryans in my top-12 and I don't mean Matt.  Tannehill and Fitzpatrick have both been consistently putting up really good fantasy numbers, but Matt Ryan hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in October yet!  I have started Matt Ryan a couple of times this season, but I'm looking elsewhere (at least until Julio is back and healthy).  If I can stream Fitzpatrick against the Jets, I just might.

RBs

Last week I kept my entire rankings brief because I was on vacation, so not much to recap with the RBs.  This week I currently have Phillip Lindsay 15 spots higher than ECR, and I feel like I still need to move him up.  My expectation is that Melvin Gordon won't play after getting pulled over for speeding and a DUI, and that means plenty of work for Lindsay against the Patriots.  I think he could have a big game if he has the backfield mostly to himself.  

On the flipside, a guy I'm way down on is Malcolm Brown.  The ECR has him as a top-30 RB, but I barely have him in my top-50.  McVay has already hinted that Cam Akers is going to get more work this week, and I think Henderson will still be plenty involved.  That should leave Brown as the third RB in this committee, and I have a feeling he won't do much of anything this week.  In fact, if he stinks this week and all of these RBs are healthy, he'll be an easy drop heading into Week 7.

WRs

I really liked Russell Gage last week with Julio likely out (he was) and the volume should have been there for Gage.  I thought he'd end up as a top-30 WR, but he had a dud for the third straight week.  He started off the season strong in the first couple of weeks, and those were the big Matt Ryan weeks against the Cowboys and Seahawks.  He and Ryan both haven't done much since then though, and I have a hard time trusting either in Minnesota here in Week 6.

One guy I'll trust is A.J. Brown.  He looked great last night against the Bills, and the Titans don't have a ton of healthy receiving options outside of A.J. and Jonnu.  Both should be great options against the Texans this week, and I have A.J. Brown currently about 10 spots higher than ECR and inside my top-12.  I'm not big on Terry McLaurin this week against the Giants.  ECR has him as a top-12 play, but he's way down at WR28 for me right now.  He's plenty talented, but he didn't look great last week in his first game with a QB other than Haskins.  I'm not saying Kyle Allen isn't an upgrade over Haskins.  I'm just saying the connection may or may not be there yet with McLaurin, so I'm not ranking him as a WR1 until I see it.

Here are my betting picks for Week 6.  I had a bad week in Week 5, especially with my over/under picks.  I'm in the red on those picks for the season, but I'm above water with my ATS and Moneyline picks so far.  Let's see if I can bounce back with all of these here in Week 6!

2020 Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings

I'm on vacation this week, so this is going to be a quick one.  No lead in.  No fluff.  No pictures. 

Just rankings and a quick hit at a couple of positions.  Let's do this!

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QBs

I liked Jared Goff against the Giants last week, but he didn't pan out as a top-12 play like I thought he would.  But in that same game, I stayed down on Daniel Jones who has looked terrible to start the season (albeit against very tough opponents).  I said better fantasy days are ahead for Jones, but that wasn't going to start until Week 5.  Danny Dimes was once again straight trash last week, and this is really a make or break week against the porous Dallas defense.  I think he can get back on track, but we'll see...

RBs

Last week I talked up Carlos Hyde and spoke badly of Devin Singletary, but a lot changed between Wednesday and Sunday.  I get these rankings out every Wednesday, but you have to especially pay attention to those Friday injury reports.  My rankings were very different come Sunday, and I obviously removed Hyde (who was inactive) and bumped Singletary up when Moss was out.  This is really just a reminder to take note when guys are limited and/or don't practice.  Get those waiver wire claims in on Tuesday night, but also see who people have waived to make their own weekly claims.  And check those injuries on Friday/Saturday.  

WRs

A guy I really liked last week and who was in my top-20 was DeVante Parker.  He was facing a Seattle team that has been giving up so many fantasy points to WRs...like WAY more than any other team.  He easily finished as a top-20 WR, and this week you have to not only like Thielen but Justin Jefferson against the Seahawks who will once again be without Jamal Adams.  This week I really like Russell Gage, who I'm currently about 10 spots higher on versus the ECR.  Julio Jones will likely be out again, and Matt Ryan will absolutely throw the ball a ton.  Gage should get high volume and should end up as a top-30 WR.

If you're interested in my betting picks for Week 5, check em out...

2020 Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings

Remember in 2017 when Hurricane Irma gave the Dolphins and Bucs each a Week 1 bye?  That was a weird way to start the season but nothing compared to the scheduling issues COVID could cause this year.  As of right now, the Steelers/Titans and Vikings/Texans games will go on as planned, but stay tuned.  If more positive cases pop up and postponing the game until Monday or Tuesday isn't even an option, these teams could all end up just having an early Week 4 bye.  I hope the games go on as planned and everything is fine, but I'm skeptical.  We saw what happened with teams like the Marlins and Cardinals in baseball just a couple of months ago.  It worked out OK I guess, but you can't exactly play a football double header, can you?  I'm interested to see how this all unfolds, and I just hope we can make it through this season.  And if it means the NFL adds another week or two at the end of the regular season (extra bye week for everyone?), so be it.  I'd be perfectly fine with the Super Bowl being played on President's Day weekend.  In fact, can we just do that, NFL?  If you won't change it to Super Bowl Saturday, at least give me an easy Monday to take off work after the big game!

Anyway, that went off the rails a bit.  I know why you're here, and it's the rankings.  Let's get to it!

Cheers,
Bart

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

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QBs

I liked for Brady to bounce back in Week 3, and he finished as a top-10 play.  I also kept Gardner Minshew in my top-12, and he disappointed big time against the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football.  I was low on Drew Brees versus the ECR, and that turned out to be wrong.  Alvin Kamara's long touchdown reception (most of which was just him running down the field) certainly helped, and Kamara actually had two receiving TDs on the night.  That's not going to happen every week, and I'll still have Brees relatively low until Michael Thomas is back in the lineup.  That could happen as soon as this week (which I'm projecting), so Brees is certainly in starter territory against the Lions.

Another guy I view as a starter this week is Jared Goff against the Giants.  I have him as a top-12 play and about 5 spots higher than the ECR.  In that same game, I'm staying down on Daniel Jones who has looked terrible to start the season (albeit against very tough opponents).  Better fantasy days are ahead for Jones, but I'm not sure that starts until Week 5...

RBs

I talked up James Robinson in this spot last week, and he had a great game against the Dolphins.  I love his workload and will continue to plug him into my lineup until something changes.  I was way down on Nyheim Hines, who the ECR had near the top-30.  I barely had him in my top-50, but the ECR was right.  He bounced back and was more involved in the blowout win against the Jets (definitely more involved than I thought he'd be).  This week I'm assuming Chris Carson is out, so I have Carlos Hyde as a top-20 RB.  Right now the ECR has him as the RB33, which is way too low in a game in Miami in which he'll almost certainly find the endzone.  I'm a little bit down versus the ECR on Devin Singletary, who basically had the backfield to himself last week with Zack Moss out with a toe injury.  Well, Moss is back at practice and a top-40 RB for me this week.  That has me lowering Singletary outside of my top-20.

WRs

A few guys I liked 10 or so spots higher than the ECR last week: Julian Edelman, DeVante Parker, Russell Gage, and N'Keal Harry.  I'm not sure any of those were right, and my Week 3 accuracy ranking above 100 reflects it too.  I was relatively down on both Cleveland receivers & Michael Gallup.  Of course Gallup had a big game, but Landy and OBJ were bad.  The Browns won the game and ran all over Washington, and that meant Baker Mayfield had exactly 23 pass attempts for the second week in a row.  It's possible this week could be different against Dallas though.  I fully expect the Cowboys to put up points and potentially be leading much of this game.  If that's the case, Baker will have to throw more and the receivers could be a little more involved.

A guy I really like this week and who is in my top-20 is DeVante Parker.  I'll be playing him in DFS, as he's facing a Seattle team that is giving up so many fantasy points to WRs...like WAY more than any other team.  I think Fitzpatrick will put up some numbers in this one and could have a Jameis Winston type of game: 350 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 1 Fumble Lost...oh and a loss.  But give me all of the DeVante Parker in Week 4.

After three weeks, the tight end position is starting to become slightly more clear, and I'm not really high/low versus the ECR on too many guys.  The same pretty much goes for defenses, so if you're looking for a streamer for either, just check my rankings!  I have had bad luck with tight ends in my main league for the second year in a row.  Last year it was Hunter Henry and Will Dissly.  This year it's been Blake Jarwin and Dallas Goedert (and to a lesser extent Jared Cook, who I assume could miss some time with this groin injury).  This week I'm rolling out Dalton Schultz in that league, and I'm hoping he can be this year's Dissly for me...at least for a few weeks please!

If you're interested in my betting picks for Week 4, here they are:

2020 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings

I want to start this week's rankings by talking about my betting picks.  If you don't care about those, feel free to skip down to my fantasy position rankings.  If you do care about those, I'd like to point out that I was 4-1 ATS, 5-2 over/under, and 4-2 on the moneyline in Week 1.  But all of that positivity was negated in Week 2 when I went 4-6 ATS, 2-6-1 over/under, and 3-3 on the moneyline.  I think I fell into the trap of picking too many games, but I also flat out got some things wrong that I felt like were sure things (like the Chiefs and Saints for instance).  

I'll try to be better about being selective this week, and we'll see how it goes.  If you want to get to those picks, head straight to the bottom.  Otherwise, let's start by getting into the Week 3 rankings, shall we?

Cheers,

Bart

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QBs

I stayed high on Gardner Minshew last week, and I kind of liked Joe Burrow to show up on Thursday Night Football.  I had both guys as top-15 fantasy QBs in Week 2, and both finished in the top-12!  One guy I thought could finish outside of the top-15 again was Tom Brady, but the ECR had him as a top-12 fantasy QB.  His receivers let him down and had some bad drops, but that left him with a rough stat line and one of the worst starting fantasy QBs in Week 2.

I like for Brady to bounce back this week, but I'm not ready to get him back into my top-12 just yet.  Minshew is staying in my top-12 though, and Tannehill is in there for me too.  I'm currently 5 spots higher on him versus the ECR, and I'm 5 spots lower on Drew Brees.  I'm not ready to trust him against the Packers without Michael Thomas and after he didn't do much in the first two weeks.  There are just more interesting options than Brees right now.

RBs

While most people are talking about rookies like CEH and Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson isn't getting much love.  I get it.  He was undrafted, from a small school, and he plays for the Jags.  But I was a little high on him last week, and he had a great game against the Titans.  He plays tomorrow night against the Dolphins, and he cracks my top-20 RBs.  I love going with the workload with running backs, and the Jags are actually a favorite in this matchup.  I'm going to roll with him until something changes in this backfield, and it could just look like this all season!  I also have Myles Gaskin as a top-30 RB in tomorrow night's game.  He has had the most touches in Miami's backfield, and it's not even close.  You could do worse with a FLEX option, and I have Gaskin 10 spots higher than the ECR.

I'm way down on Nyheim Hines, who the ECR has near the top-30.  I currently have him all the way down at RB47 because I think Week 2 was more of the game plan moving forward. Hines was involved in Week 1 when Marlon Mack was healthy for part of the game and the Colts trailed the Jags.  Then in Week 2, it was all Jonathan Taylor as Indy easily handled the Vikings.  As double digit favorites against the Jets this week, it'll be more Taylor, and I'm afraid Hines could end up with only a handful of touches.

WRs

I was completely wrong about Anthony Miller as a top-30 WR last week.  I don't know what happened to guys like him and Will Fuller, but some dudes just disappeared in Week 2 (and not due to injury!).  Fuller isn't on the injury report this week, so I still have him as a top-20 WR, but I don't feel great about it!  A few guys I like 10 or so spots higher than the ECR: Julian Edelman, DeVante Parker, Russell Gage, and N'Keal Harry.  I'm relatively down on both Browns receivers & Michael Gallup.  In fact, I think we may have already seen CeeDee Lamb overtake Gallup, but it's still too early to tell.

TEs

I was also dead wrong being down on Mike Gesicki against the Bills.  That Buffalo defense hadn't allowed many fantasy points to the tight end position in a long time, but Gesicki balled out.  Darren Waller also went off on Monday night, and he's a locked in top-5 tight end rest of season.  Speaking of ROS rankings, I've been working on those and will post them starting maybe next week.  So stay tuned. 

Like I said last week, I'm not going to really talk much about defenses moving forward.  If you want to find a streamer, just take a look at my top-12 or so defenses in any given week.

Here are my betting picks for Week 3, which will change as we get closer to Sunday:

2020 Fantasy Football Week 2 Rankings

Last week I got my rankings out a day early, but now we're back to Wednesday for my Week 2 rankings.  This is a fun week too because I finally have some actual games to based these rankings on.  Especially this year with no preseason, I feel much better this week at least having some information to back these rankings other than depth charts, offseason chatter, etc.  As always, I'll have comments on various positions below the rankings about guys I like/don't like as much versus the FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings). 

Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks at the very bottom.  I did pretty well with those in Week 1, but I was also able to lock in some early lines about a month ago.  So this week will be more of a true test.

I was 4-1 ATS, 5-2 over/under, and 4-2 on the moneyline.  With the units I "bet", I ended up with positive numbers in each category, so I feel good about that start. 

Let's get right into the rankings, and if you only care about my picks versus the spread, over/under, etc. then you can skip to the bottom!

Cheers,

Bart

 

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

QBs

My biggest gap last week when I posted my rankings on Tuesday was that I was 4 spots higher on Trubisky versus the other experts.  He was pretty terrible through three quarters, but he salvaged his day and beat the Lions in Week 1.  He actually ended up as a top-5 fantasy QB, but I wouldn't get too excited.  I feel like he has a short leash, and Nick Foles could close out this week's matchup against the Giants if for some reason the Bears get behind and the game somehow is out of hand in the third quarter. I was also slightly down on Aaron Rodgers versus the ECR last week, but he also ended up as a top-5 fantasy QB.  So I was right about Trubisky but way off on Rodgers.  Was the Viking defense the reason Aaron looked like an MVP or is he "back"?  Week 2 might tell the real story, but I'm hesitantly buying into Rodgers.  We shall see...

This week, I'm staying high on Gardner Minshew (+8 vs ECR), and I kind of like Joe Burrow to show up on Thursday Night Football.  Minshew should continue to air it out, and I think he'll also have a low floor with some of those rushing yards.  Burrow is in the same boat, but he actually has way more talent (and weapons).  I like both guys as top-15 fantasy QBs in Week 2.  One guy I think could finish outside of the top-15 again is Tom Brady.  Chris Godwin is in the concussion protocol, and Brady just didn't look great last week against the Saints.  I wouldn't trust him like a top-12 fantasy QB in Week 2 like a lot of experts are doing.

RBs

Outside of CEH and Jonathan Taylor, I was really low on other rookie RBs in Week 1.  For the most part, I just need to see it before I trust a guy.  I didn't think guys like Cam Akers or J.K. Dobbins would have roles right away.  I was wrong on Dobbins...sort of.  He scored twice, so that made a huge difference.  We'll see what happens in Week 2 if the game script is different.  As for Akers, he's probably going to take some time to win the starting gig because Malcolm Brown looked pretty good in Week 1 (for the second year in a row).  Swift was the second guy in a committee and dropped a key touchdown that could've won the game in the fourth quarter, and Moss didn't get a ton of touches but a lot near the goal line.  Clyde and Taylor are ready to roll, but some of these other rookies might take a couple of weeks to get going.  

Speaking of rookies though, I'm actually a little high on James Robinson this week (+7 vs ECR).  If Conner can't go, I'll be starting the rookie in one league, and I don't feel bad about that.  He got a great workload in Week 1, and Jay Gruden has shown faith in undrafted rookies before (Fat Rob Kelley anyone?).  On volume alone, I feel like Robinson will get double digit fantasy points in Week 2.  One guy I'm not crazy abou thtis week is Melvin Gordon.  The ECR currently has him as a top-20 RB, but with the Steelers shutting down Saquon in Week 1, forgive me for not wanting to believe Gordon can do much against them in Week 2.

WRs

You know who I liked a lot last week?  Greg Ward.  I had him in my top-50 WRs, which was nearly 50 spots higher than ECR as of Wednesday.  The guy got 7 targets, but he only converted them into 5 catches for 31 yards.  You could've done a lot worse in PPR leagues, and I'll continue to rank him close to my top-50.  A guy I didn't like much versus ECR was A.J. Brown.  I just thought this game would be low scoring and the Titans would hand it off a ton to Derrick Henry, which is exactly what happened.  A.J. finished with a similar stat line to that of Greg Ward, so I'd say I was pretty spot on there.

This week I like Anthony Miller as a top-30 WR (+11 vs ECR).  I could see him having a day like JuJu did against the G Men last week.  I'm way down on Odell Beckham, who could certainly prove me wrong tomorrow night.  But this feels like last year when it took everyone a while to realize that Landry was actually the #1 WR in this offense.  It's only one week in the books this season, but I'm going to wait and see on OBJ.

TEs

T.J. Hockenson was my guy in Week 1, and I said a healthy Hockenson could actually turn into George Kittle this season.  With Golladay out of the lineup, Hock had a big day and could do the same this week in Green Bay (I'm currently +4 vs ECR on him in Week 2).  I was down on Jared Cook last week, and I said he could be a "touchdown or bust" tight end all year.  Well, he proved me wrong in Week 1 by hauling in 5 catches for 80 yards.  Now with Michael Thomas set to miss a few weeks, I'll be ranking him as a top-10 TE because I expect him to be even more involved in this offense. 

This week I'm down on Mike Gesicki (-8 vs ECR) who is facing a tough Buffalo defense who doesn't allow many fantasy points to tight ends.  Gesicki could see extra targets if Parker is out of the lineup, but I'm not excited about starting him either way.

DEFs

I said the Dolphins would be an OK streamer and that their game in New England would end up something like 20-17 in what would be a defensive battle.  While the total points stayed low, the Dolphins didn't do a whole lot to stop Cam and company.  I was down on the Jets (-6 vs ECR), and I said the Bills would win this one 30-10.  It ended up 27-17, so I was way off...ha!  I'm probably going to stick to talking about QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs and just dismiss the defenses moving forward.  If you want to find a streamer, just take a look at my top-12 or so defenses in any given week.

As for my betting picks, here's what I'm rolling with here in Week 2:

Real Football Predictions: 2020 Edition

 

So I doubt many people care about my real football predictions for the 2020 season, but I do it every year, and I can't break tradition!  Last year I picked the Rams to win it all (yikes!), but I did have the Chiefs at least making it to the Super Bowl.  So I was close...ish.  There's an extra Wild Card team in each conference this year, so there are two more chances for me to be wrong!  But I'm going to try to nail all of these, right?   We'll see.  I just hope we have an entire NFL season complete with playoffs and a Super Bowl! Here's what I predict for 2020: AFC East: Buffalo Bills AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers  AFC South: Tennessee Titans AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs AFC Wild Card1: Baltimore Ravens AFC Wild Card2: New England Patriots AFC Wild Card3: Las Vegas Raiders [Chiefs over Bills in AFC Championship Game] NFC East: Dallas Cowboys NFC North: Minnesota Vikings NFC South: New Orleans Saints NFC West: Seattle Seahawks NFC Wild Card1: San Francisco 49ers NFC Wild Card2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC Wild Card3: LA Rams [Saints over Seahawks in NFC Championship Game] Super Bowl Prediction: Saints over Chiefs

Cheers,

Bart

2020 Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings

I usually do my rankings on Wednesdays, but I'm a day early here to kickoff the season.  I'm excited, dammit!  Below are my Week 1 rankings, and I've made a few comments on various positions below the rankings about guys I like/don't like as much versus the FantasyPros ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings).  It's only Tuesday, so this might change between now and Sunday.  But I at least wanted to put some early notes next to guys where I disagree on their ECR.

Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @bartonwheeler, and I'll post my betting picks at the very bottom.  Sports betting is currently illegal in my state, so I'm not using my own advice on these picks.  But I'd like to point out that I was top-10 on BettingPros last year, so we'll see if I can do that again this season! 

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

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QBs

I'm not crazy high on anyone versus the ECR this week, but my biggest gap is that I'm currently 4 spots higher on Trubisky versus the other experts.  I still only have him as my QB24, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as a top-12 QB this week.  The Lions don't have a good defense, and Mitch put up good fantasy numbers against them in both meetings last year.  The guy is also playing for his job with Nick Foles now breathing down his neck.  He could surprise in Week 1 and would be a cheap DFS option for sure.

I'm slightly down on Aaron Rodgers versus the ECR.  He's a top-12 consensus pick at Minnesota, but I have him at QB15 and might consider lowering him even more.  This offense is built to run the ball, and Rodgers averages very mediocre numbers when he plays on the road against the Vikings.  I could easily see him finishing with 200 yards and a touchdown and be very disappointing to start the season.

RBs

Remember when Malcolm Brown had a huge Week 1 last year?  And that was with Todd Gurley on the roster.  This game against Dallas has the largest point total outside of the Thursday night game, so touchdowns will be scored.  Brown is expected to be the starter, and I guarantee he'll be the goal line back.  I don't see McVay trusting a rookie like Cam Akers much in Week 1, and Henderson could be inactive due to injury.  I currently have Malcolm Brown as my RB31 which is more than 20 spots above ECR, and I'd rather start him as a FLEX over riskier options (like rookies).

Speaking of those rookies, a guy I don't really like this week is Cam Akers for the exact reasons I laid out above.  I also don't like D'Andre Swift (-15 vs ECR) & J.K. Dobbins (-21 vs ECR).  I just don't trust the rookies very much in Week 1.  I could be wrong, but I want to see it first.

WRs

You know who I like a lot this week?  Greg Ward.  That's right.  This dude has a boring name, and it's hurting his perception.  If his name was G Money Warden, he'd easily be considered a WR3.  The Eagles basically have him, DeSean Jackson, and their tight ends healthy for Week 1...against the Washington Football Team!  Ward was Wentz's guy in December when all of his other WRs were injured.  I have him in my top-50 WRs, which is nearly 50 spots higher than ECR!

A guy I don't like this week versus ECR is A.J. Brown.  He's one of my keepers in my main league, and I'm sure I'll start him but I don't see him as a locked in top-24 WR this week.  I feel like he's more of a WR3 against a Denver defense who could put A.J. Bouye on him a lot on Monday night.  Which A.J. will win out most often?  I hope Brown can make a play or two, but this should be a low scoring affair and could just end up being a ton of Derrick Henry, especially now that there will be a Von Miller sized hole in the middle of the field.

TEs

T.J. Hockenson had a great first game of his NFL career, and then he just kind of fizzled out the rest of the season.  But rookie tight ends rarely do much in their first seasons.  They can break out in Year 2 though, and I think a healthy Hockenson could actually turn into George Kittle.  He'll start this week at home against the Bears, who will certainly look to lock down Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones.  That could leave some open looks for the TE position, and I think Hockenson has a good shot to end up as a top-12 play this week (I currently have him 7 spots higher than ECR).

A guy I'm down on this week is Jared Cook (-9 vs ECR).  I just don't see ranking him in the top-10 with Emmanuel Sanders now in New Orleans.  Cook should be a touchdown or bust tight end all year, and I think it'll start this week against Tampa Bay.

DEFs

The team I picked as my sleeper at the DST position this year is the Miami Dolphins.  I like what they did in free agency, and if the offense can stay on the field a bit more, that will help this defense stay fresh.  The Dolphins travel to Foxboro Sunday to face a new look Patriots team led by Cam Newton.  This game has a point total of 43, and New England is expected to win by a touchdown.  I think it'll be closer than that and could end up something like 20-17 in what will be a defensive battle.  I like the Patriots to win the game, but I also like the Dolphins to be a top-20 fantasy defense (I have them +8 vs ECR currently).

I'm down on the Jets (-6 vs ECR), and I can't figure out why so many experts have them ranked in their top-20.  Maybe it's because Josh Allen is prone to turn the ball over and Devin Singletary has had fumbling issues in camp.  This game's point total is even lower at 39.5, so that could be part of it as well.  But if it stays around that total, I think the Bills will win this one 30-10.  I don't see the Jets doing much to stop them, but we shall see!

Speaking of point totals and spreads...

I'm taking the OVER for Thursday night's game between the Chiefs and Texans, and I want to take Houston to cover +10 but I'm scared.  I have that locked in for now, and I have a bunch of other picks but I might narrow this down to fewer picks come Sunday.  So check back and see because I'll update this list as well as my rankings above leading up to kickoff of each game. 

Good luck to everyone in Week 1!

Cheers,

Bart