As you can imagine, a lot of factors go into these weekly rankings.
And since I like ranking things, I thought I'd rank those factors:
1. Production (recent > past)
2. Usage - targets/touches
3. Matchup - opposing defense good/bad versus run/pass
4. Talent aka "Is this person good at football?"
5. Injuries (player I'm ranking > teammates of the player I'm ranking)
6. Is his team good? / Expected point total (higher = good for fantasy)
7. Gut feel / high upside or risk of a player
8. How many leagues am I facing this player in? If two or more, I'm definitely bumping him up my rankings because he's bound to produce.
After 6 weeks of the NFL season, I feel like we have enough data to start making bigger adjustments for matchups in these weekly rankings. In Week 1, I probably would've ranked talent above matchup because we just didn't really know. Now we have a clearer picture of which defenses are overall good units and which are good or bad in specific areas. So matchup is becoming more and more important.
Let me walk you through an example of a tough decision I have in my rankings below (as well as in one of my fantasy teams): Justin Jackson versus James Robinson.
These two teams are actually playing each other this week, so I can put one in a FLEX spot and swap out with the other if I have a last-minute change of heart. I have them super close in my rankings, and their talent is probably close enough to be a wash. Robinson definitely has the edge on usage, but I feel like Jackson has the slight edge on recent production (albeit a small sample size of really just one game against the Saints before his bye). Then we get to matchup, and the Chargers have been fairly middle of the road against running backs this year. But the Jags on the other hand...oh man. They continue to get gashed on the ground. Just last week, Detroit's RBs had over 150 rushing yards and 3 TDs against Jacksonville. The week before that, David Johnson had nearly 100 rushing yards on just 17 carries. Joe Mixon had his huge game against the Jaguars the week before that. I could go on, but you get the point: start your RBs against the Jags. Jacksonville is more than a touchdown road underdog per Vegas, so I expect Minshew to be passing a bit more in this game. That doesn't mean Robinson will necessarily get game scripted out because his usage has been great. But the Chargers are likely going to score more points in this game, so that also factors in as I mentioned above.
I used this example to say it's time to start paying more attention to matchups, but this also gives you some insight into all of the things going through my brain when I'm doing these rankings. And in case you missed it, I also posted my Rest of Season Rankings earlier this week, so check those out if you're into that kind of thing.
OK. Let's get to the Week 7 rankings!
2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings
QBs
Last week I talked up Ryan Tannehill and Fitzpatrick as top-12 plays, and I pointed out how Matt Ryan hadn't thrown a touchdown pass in October yet. Well, it turns out getting Julio Jones back was pretty important because Matt Ryan threw 4 touchdowns and was the #2 fantasy QB in Week 6. I started Matthew Stafford over Matt Ryan in one league and it was the wrong call, but I still won that matchup. This week those two play each other, and I'm once again struggling with which one to start! As for Tannehill and Fitzpatrick, they were top-12 fantasy QBs last week too. It was a good week if you have "Ryan" in your name I guess.
This week the Dolphins are on a bye and have declared Tua their starter moving forward, so not so great of a week for that Ryan. I still have plenty of confidence in the other two though. Yes, the matchup against Pittsburgh isn't great for Tannehill, but why should you doubt him at this point? I say roll him out there until he gives you a reason not to. One guy I like as a top-10 play and the ECR doesn't is Joe Burrow. It looks like Mixon might be a little banged up with a foot injury, and the Browns are a little banged up in the secondary. I think Burrow at home against Cleveland is a pretty tasty matchup. He was a top-10 fantasy QB against this squad in Week 2, so why can't he do it again?!
RBs
I was high on Phillip Lindsay last week, and the ECR caught up by kickoff with Melvin Gordon out. I said he was in for a big game if he had the backfield mostly to himself (which he did). Lindsay rushed for over 100 yards on 23 carries but wasn't involved in the passing game. He finished just outside of the top-20 RBs in Week 6, but the usage was great. I was way down on Malcolm Brown (-12 vs ECR), and one of the reasons was because McVay had hinted that Cam Akers would get more work. Well, Akers played exactly one snap, so that wasn't the case. But Henderson remained the hot hand, and he just might continue to lead this committee for the foreseeable future. In any event, Brown wasn't involved much, and you should feel free to drop him.
This week I'm high on Justin Jackson (+9 vs ECR), and I explained why in the intro to this piece. I'm way down on Damien Harris, who I am not trusting with a 10-foot pole now that Cam is back. James White is the only back to play in this Patriot backfield right now. Harris had just 7 touches against the Broncos last week, and Cam figures to keep the goal line carries to himself. The ECR has Damien as a top-30 play, but I have him about 10 spots lower.
WRs
I pointed out last week that it's finally WR1 season for A.J. Brown. He ended up with 5 catches for 56 yards and a pair of touchdowns, which landed him in the top-5. I wasn't big on Terry McLaurin against the Giants, but he did OK. ECR had him as the WR18 play, but he was way down at WR28 for me (and that's pretty much right where he finished). I'll probably be down on him again because he'll likely get shadow coverage from Trevon Diggs, who has been playing really well this year. He's one of the few bright spots on an otherwise terrible Cowboy defense, so I'm a little concerned that McLaurin could end up outside of the top-20 WRs again.
This week it looks like I'm fairly high versus ECR on both Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Look, Watson has been playing lights out since BOB got the boot. Some of that is certainly good matchups, but Green Bay hasn't looked like a tough matchup this year. I think Watson will be a top-5 QB again this week, and both Fuller and Cooks could both be top-25 WRs.
Below are my betting picks for Week 7 if you're interested. I got a little back on track in Week 6, but so far this season I've been ping ponging between good and bad weeks. As always, I'll adjust these a bit leading up to kickoff for each game.
Cheers,
Bart
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