A quarter of the fantasy season is in the books, people. And yes, I realize the last couple of weeks I've talked about being patient. For some guys, that's true. I think you need to hang in there on Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Roddy White & Gronk (to name a few). But after 4 games (for all teams except the Panthers and Packers), we start to get a better idea of players who just might not have it in 2013.
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| Wait a second. You're not Chad Henne! |
I'm looking at you, Maurice Jones-Drew.
Seriously, the Jags are ridiculous. Maybe MJD gets it going a little bit this week against a bad St. Louis run defense, but I won't be counting on it...and I'm definitely not counting on him to be a top-10 RB this season. For my squad, I'm starting to reconsider playing Cecil Shorts on a weekly basis, especially now that Blackmon will be back from suspension. It sounds like Jacksonville is sticking with Blaine Gabbert for the foreseeable future, and I'm sure he'll single-handedly ruin the fantasy potential of everyone else on his team.
But you don't have to be like the Jacksonville Jaguars.
You control who you start and who you sit. You don't have to keep playing Colin Kaepernick because the experts rank him in the top-10 every week. If you have a better option, go for it! Tired of playing David Wilson? Then stop. Put in Danny Woodhead! What are you waiting for?!? (Yes, I still have Wilson ranked higher this week, but you're missing the point!!!)
I'm not saying you should waive those other guys, but if someone isn't producing or is just really inconsistent, I think it's perfectly acceptable to start using other options. I know I'll be thinking about it long and hard with Cecil in Week 5...
Speaking of this week, let's get to the rankings!
(BYES: Vikings, Steelers, Bucs, Redskins)
QBs
1.Peyton Manning
2.Aaron Rodgers
3.Drew Brees
4.Matthew Stafford
5.Tom Brady
6.Matt Ryan
7.Philip Rivers
8.Tony Romo
9.Cam Newton
10.Michael Vick
11.Sam Bradford
12.Colin Kaepernick
13.Eli Manning
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14.Terrelle Pryor
15.Jay Cutler
16.Brian Hoyer
17.Russell Wilson
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18.Andrew Luck
19.Andy Dalton
20.Joe Flacco
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Peyton Manning looked amazing again in Week 4, but Drew Brees one-upped him on Monday Night Football. I'll most likely be ranking these guys somewhere in the top-3 all season, depending on their matchups. As for this week, Peyton stays on top for me as he plays a Dallas defense that has given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing QBs. I don't care if this one is a road game for Manning. Nothing matters with him right now. Give me the over on 300 yards and 3.5 TDs. I also have Aaron Rodgers back up there, as he gets the Lions at home after an early bye week.
Last week I ranked Andrew Luck outside of my top-10, but he finished right up there against that horrible Jacksonville defense. I'm staying down on him this week though, as Seattle comes to town. As for the QBs I had ranked a lot differently from ESPN, I was pretty spot on. I ranked Tom Brady #4 last week and ESPN had him at #8. While he finished 7th, that was also behind guys like Rivers, Locker, and Alex Smith. The only other QBs he finished behind in fantasy were Peyton, Drew, and Matty Ice. This one goes in the "W" column...and that was without Gronk or Amendola. I was really down on Vick last week against Denver (ESPN #4, ME #9), and he finished just barely inside the top-20. He was only able to get 41 rushing yards on 8 attempts, his lowest average/run so far this season (5.1), and he had zero TDs. This week, I still have him in my top-10, since he's playing a Giants defense that just made Alex Smith look like...not...Alex Smith.
Speaking of Alex Smith, I don't have him ranked this week against the Titans. He's been a solid start so far this season, but I think Tennessee will slow him down at home. People aren't giving that Titan defense much love, but they look good so far this season. I'm also not ranking EJ Manuel, who plays a tough Cleveland defense tomorrow night. I think Brian Hoyer might shine in the Thursday nighter, but I don't think the rookie will have as much success against the Browns secondary.
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| Maybe if you could learn how to take a knee, I'd rank you, EJ! |
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RBs |
1.LeSean McCoy
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2.Jamaal Charles
3.Arian Foster
4.Marshawn Lynch
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5.Matt Forte
6.Reggie Bush
7.Ray Rice
8.DeMarco Murray
9.Frank Gore
10.Chris Johnson
11.Trent Richardson
12.Bilal Powell
13.Giovanni Bernard
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14.Darren Sproles
15.Eddie Lacy
16.Maurice Jones-Drew
17.CJ Spiller
18.DeAngelo Williams
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19.Lamar Miller
20.Knowshon Moreno
21.David Wilson
22.Stevan Ridley
23.Ryan Mathews
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24.Daryl Richardson
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25.Rashad Jennings
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26.Danny Woodhead
27.Willis McGahee
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28.Fred Jackson
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29.Jacquizz Rodgers
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30.Joique Bell
31.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
32.Rashard Mendenhall
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33.Jason Snelling
34.Bernard Pierce
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35.Ahmad Bradshaw
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36.Chris Ogbonnaya
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37.LaGarrette Blount
38.Ronnie Hillman
39.Andre Ellington
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40.Pierre Thomas
Reggie Bush came back from injury in a big way last week, and Arian Foster is starting to look more like a 1st round fantasy draft pick. But I think the big surprise for me was the instant impact of Le'Veon Bell with his 2 rushing TDs. The Steelers get a bye this week, but he should be in the top-20 for Week 6. I already mentioned in my Friday update that Frank Gore had a big week, but what about Alfred Morris? I thought both guys would be in for plenty of carries (and they were), but Morris left early in the 3rd quarter with a rib injury. Hopefully he can get healthy over the Skins' bye week, and get it going in a big game against Dallas when the burgundy and gold are back in action.
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| Almost time to give up on Mendenhall. Maybe one last chance... |
As for the guys I was high and low on, I went 1 for 2. I really thought Jason Snelling (ESPN #35, ME #27) would at least get a TD against New England, but Matt Ryan really focused on Gonzalez near the endzone. And it was Jacquizz Rodgers who continued to get more snaps and touches, so I have the order of those 2 RBs switched in my rankings this week. I was right about Rashard Mendenhall though (ESPN #27, ME #35). He looked like garbage against Tampa Bay, who still hasn't given up a rushing TD this season. Andre Ellington got more yards on a lot fewer touches for the Cardinals, and I think it's only a matter of time before this becomes a 50/50 split (and maybe even tilts more toward Ellington by the 2nd half of the season).
As for Week 5, it's starting to get really thin at the bottom of my rankings. With four teams on byes, we're seeing names like Chris Obbonnaya and LaGarrette Blount. Woof. Hopefully you don't have to dig this deep for an RB2, but if so, that's probably your fault for drafting too many WRs (unless it's just really bad luck with injuries). Rashad Jennings will be a popular waiver wire pickup this week, as the Raiders lost both Reece and McFadden to injuries in Week 4. Maybe one of them will play come Sunday night, but I'm ranking Jennings as though he'll be getting the majority of the touches against San Diego. I wouldn't be super excited about playing him, but you could do worse. We'll see how the experts rank him and others, and I'll pick some guys to talk about more in my Friday update.
WRs
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1.Calvin Johnson
2.Dez Bryant
3.Demaryius Thomas
4.Julio Jones
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5.Brandon Marshall
6.AJ Green
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7.Jordy Nelson
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8.Wes Welker
9.Victor Cruz
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10.Randall Cobb
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11.DeSean Jackson
12.Andre Johnson
13.Larry Fitzgerald
14.Josh Gordon
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15.Torrey Smith
16.Eric Decker
17.Anquan Boldin
18.James Jones
19.Marques Colston
20.Kenbrell Thompkins
21.Hakeem Nicks
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22.Julian Edelman
23.Steve Smith
24.Reggie Wayne
25.Dwayne Bowe
26.Cecil Shorts
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27.Mike Wallace
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28.Denarius Moore
29.Steve Johnson
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30.Brian Hartline
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31.Nate Washington
34.Eddie Royal
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36.Marlon Brown
37.Chris Givens
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38.T.Y. Hilton
39.Jeremy Kerley
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40.Robert Woods
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| This looks familiar (except Kenbrell caught this one!)... |
In my Friday update, I added Roddy White, Marlon Brown, and Aaron Dobson to my rankings. Well, this wasn't the week Roddy shook off that injury, but he did play nearly every snap. He's definitely getting closer to 100%, but who knows how close? I'm leaving him out of the rankings this week, as I think there are better options until he proves he is back. I mentioned that with Ray Rice still a little banged up, Baltimore would go to the air a little more, and they did. Torrey Smith ended up as the #1 fantasy WR in Week 4, and Marlon Brown hauled in a TD too. As for Dobson, he didn't really get it going in the first half, and he left the game in the 3rd quarter after getting his neck snapped back on a near-catch in the endzone. It looks like Kenbrell Thompkins is the WR to own opposite Julian Edelman, at least while Brady's other weapons remained sidelined. I actually have Thompkins ranked higher this week at Cincinnati.
Last week I was high on Emmanuel Sanders (ESPN #37, ME #31), and while Big Ben racked up 383 yards against Minnesota's secondary, only 57 of those yards went to Sanders. It was Jerricho Cotchery who caught Roethlisberger's lone TD pass, as the Steelers fell to 0-4 in London. As I've said, these guys are on a bye this week, but it's possible that Sanders just might not be much of a fantasy producer this season. The guy I was really down on in Week 4 was Vincent Jackson (ESPN #9, ME #16). I don't understand how he was still a top-10 WR for people last week. He was dealing with a rib injury and playing with a rookie QB for the first time in a real game. He did get 11 targets from Glennon, but he only caught 2 of those balls for a grand total of 27 yards. The Bucs also have Week 5 off, but I might leave VJax around the #20 range next week.
As for Week 5, I'll stop getting cute and just put Megatron at #1 where he belongs. I'm also leaving Peyton's top targets (Demaryius and Wes) in the top-10, along with Aaron's top wideouts (Jordy and Randall). Josh Gordon is all the way up at #14, as the Browns face a Bills secondary that has given up insane numbers to #1 WRs. I'm sure Jordan Cameron will get his points, but I think Gordon should get 100 yards and has high potential for a big play TD. Justin Blackmon is coming back from suspension for the Jags, and he'll do his best Josh Gordon impression in his return. I have him ranked conservatively in the mid-30s though, as I'm concerned with Jacksonville's offense as a whole.
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TEs
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1.Jimmy Graham
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2.Jordan Cameron
3.Antonio Gates
4.Jason Witten
5.Tony Gonzalez
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6.Julius Thomas
7.Jared Cook
8.Vernon Davis
9.Martellus Bennett
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10.Greg Olsen
11.Owen Daniels
12.Coby Fleener
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Gronk still didn't play in Week 4, and the word is that the Patriots are targeting Week 6 for his return. Hence, I'm still not ranking him. Speaking of injured tight ends, Jermichael Finley really got his bell rung in his last game before the bye week. It sounds like his concussion might be pretty severe, so I'm leaving him out of the conversation for now. Even if he suits up this week, I won't be putting him in my top-12. I think it's too risky.
My opponent in my money league started Vernon Davis over Antonio Gates last week, and I barely squeaked out a victory. Davis had a decent game (at least he got a TD), but Gates is really looking like his pre-2011 self. Play him while he's healthy because it's only a matter of time before he hurts his foot again. As much as Rivers is feeding him, I like him as a top-5 play until that happens.
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| Fleener...into the endzone...weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! |
I added Coby Fleener and Charles Clay to my rankings in the Friday update, and both found the endzone in Week 4. I left Fleener in the rankings this week, but Clay would be right there at #13 if I were to expand them out (I'm not). I talked up Heath Miller a bit as well (ESPN #13, ME #11). While he didn't catch a TD, he nearly played every snap and grabbed 6 of his 8 targets for 70 yards. I'll look for him to be a big part of that Steeler offense when they get back to work against the Jets in Week 6.
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DEF
1.Seahawks
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2.Chiefs
3.Rams
4.Panthers
5.Browns
6.49ers
7.Ravens
8.Titans
9.Falcons
10.Broncos
11.Bears
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12.Bengals
I talked about the Saints in my Friday update, and they ended up right there as the #12 fantasy defense for the week. This week they travel to Chicago, so I have them outside of my top-12. I also finally put the Chiefs in my rankings in Week 4, all the way at the top spot since they've been playing the part. They didn't finish as the #1 defense, but they were once again in the top-10 (and they're still #1 overall on the season, just ahead of Seattle). I didn't have the Patriots or Cowboys in my rankings last week, and a lot of that was based on matchups. I mentioned that I liked teams like the Colts (at Jacksonville) and Tampa Bay (vs Arizona) much better. As it turns out, Indy was the top defense for the week and the Bucs put up 15 fantasy points themselves. Meanwhile, Dallas and New England finished somewhere in the middle of the pack, well outside the top-12.
I also was high on the Tennessee Titans (ESPN #18, ME #12). I pointed out that Tennessee had scored double digit fantasy points in each of their first 3 games, and they were playing a home game against a rookie quarterback. Geno Smith and the Jets didn't disappoint, as they surrendered 5 sacks, 2 picks, and 2 fumbles. The Titans held their opponent to only 13 points and tacked on a touchdown while they were at it. I'm leaving them in my rankings this week, even though they host the 4-0 Chiefs. Kansas City opened their season at Jacksonville, and then they played 3 of the 4 NFC East teams (which currently looks like the worst division in football)...two of those games at home. I think they're due for a loss, and I think they get their first one in Nashville this weekend.
I'm getting a little worried about my Bengals defense. They're a little banged up right now, and I'm sitting them again this week. Tom Brady and company are coming to town, and that doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling. I decided to pick up a Rams defense that is managing just over 6 fantasy points/game (nearly dead last). It seems a bit risky at first glance, but when you realize they're playing Jacksonville at home and after a long week (they got blown out by the 49ers last Thursday), it makes a little more sense. Did I mention Blaine Gabbert is the worst? The Rams put up double digit fantasy points against the Cardinals in Week 1, and I think they can do that again this week. I think I'll wait another week until I consider getting my Bengals back in the lineup...
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| Rashard is getting no love in the Week 5 pictures. |
That's it for Wednesday, but be sure to check back in a couple of days for my updated rankings!
Cheers,
Bart
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