Friday, October 11, 2013

Week 6 Rankings: Friday Update

Usually in my Friday update, I like to get right into last night's game and then straight to my rankings.  I mean, with the Bears helping the Giants to an 0-6 record, why wouldn't I want to talk about that?  But I have a story that I have to tell...

If you read this blog regularly, you know I'm in two leagues.  If you don't really read it (or skim to the rankings), here's the deal.  I have my money league: all dudes, most of whom I've known for the majority of my life now.  Then I have my fun league: much lower stakes and co-ed (including my wife & other Richmond friends).  

This story is from my "fun league"...

To make a short story long, we need to go back to the bachelor party weekend at Lake Anna for my friend Sean (who is in this league).  It was there I met his long time friend Matt, who just so happened to edit Matthew Berry's book "Fantasy Life" (I know, right?).  Side note: just finished the book earlier this week and LOVED it.  Other side note: my wife actually read it before I did...she also loved it, and she's glad I finally got around to reading it so we can talk about all of the crazy stories in there.  Needless to say, that weekend I probably talked Matt's ear off about the book (which I hadn't even read yet), among other things over several rounds of Kan Jam and even several...er...rounds of adult beverages.  

So to get back to the story, a friend of a friend knows the TMR. 

Fast forward to last weekend, when I was making trade offers to people in my "fun league".  One of these offers was to Sean's brother Michael (yeah, I'm calling you out in my blog, Lil Mikey!...though I am calling myself out too).  I offered Julian Edelman and Bilal Powell for Julio Jones.  It looked like he could use some RB depth, and I was all about getting an upgrade at WR.  I'm not 100% on this, but pretty sure I made this offer on Sunday (if not Saturday).  The point is, the trade sat around a while.  That is, until Tuesday when news broke that Julio was most likely out for the year.  Well, about two hours after that news, Michael accepted the offer I had made.  Usually I'm on top of breaking fantasy news, but I was at work and in meetings.  I know, I know.  Lame excuse.  But I got an email notification of the accepted trade, saw the news, and immediately thought "crap".



So I went to the league message board to talk it out and try to make my case for vetoing (even though I agree with Berry...I hate vetoes).  But this seemed like a special case.  Maybe it was because I was involved and my mom always told me I was special.  I don't know.  Well, it turns out Sean didn't know whether he wanted to veto it or not.  So he emailed his friend Matt.  Matt then relayed the situation to Berry.  Berry then dealt out some hard justice.  

But the story doesn't end there because Berry then wrote about it in this week's LOVE/HATE!


If you're reading this and still wondering where the story ends, that's it.  Seriously.  I'm still geeking out over this.  I mean, it was cool enough to get an email response from Berry on this unique fantasy situation.  But a couple of paragraphs in what's probably his most popular weekly article on espn.com?  This is woah crazy crazy!  My senses are a little heightened because I'm obviously pretty into fantasy football (ahem, I write this blog every week), and I just got done reading his book.  But whatever.  I just think it's cool.  And our little Jerry Orbach Memorial League is now famous...sort of.
With that, let's get to the Week 6 updated rankings.  Keep in mind, your Falcons and Dolphins are on bye this week.  

QBs
1.Peyton Manning
2.Tony Romo
3.Drew Brees
4.Tom Brady
5.Philip Rivers
6.Aaron Rodgers
7.Andrew Luck
8.RGIII
9.Cam Newton
10.Matthew Stafford
11.Joe Flacco
12.Terrelle Pryor
13.Colin Kaepernick
14.Andy Dalton
15.Russell Wilson 
16.Chad Henne
17.Alex Smith
18.Ben Roethlisberger
19.Sam Bradford 
20.Nick Foles


Last night, Eli stunk it up and Cutler put up what will likely be a top-10 performance.  With those guys now off the list, I've added Sam Bradford and Nick Foles at the bottom, though I don't feel too confident in either.  I think Foles will make the most of his opportunity with Vick out, but I wouldn't expect huge things from him.  Bradford, who I loved last week, now plays a tough Texans defense on the road.  The guy's averaging like 2 TDs and less than a pick a game though, so I feel compelled to rank him (even if it is 19th).  But let's talk about someone I actually do like. 


I'm high on: Chad Henne (ESPN #27, ME #17)
Champ could finally return, but why risk it against the Jags?
I'm also much higher than the ESPN experts on Tom Brady (again...I have him at #4, and they have him at #9), but I've talked about him here before.  I mean, Amendola is healthier and Gronk is expected to play.  I realize the Saints have gotten better on defense, but it's Tom Freakin' Brady!  Anyway, let's talk about Henne, who's going up against a Denver defense ranked #1 against the run this year.  What's Denver ranked against the pass?  Oh yeah, dead last.  With a 28 point spread in this game, I'm sure Jacksonville will be passing the ball a ton (and well into the 2nd half, possibly even with Denver 1st-stringers out of the game).  Keep in mind that garbage time points count just the same in fantasy.  I'm not sure how the experts have Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts both ranked as top-30 WRs, and yet Chad Henne isn't anywhere near the top-20 QBs.  But I like him as a bye week fill-in for Matt Ryan or could even see starting him over a struggling Kaepernick or a Megatron-less Stafford (if that is, in fact, the case on Sunday).  But that's up to you!

I'm down on: Russell Wilson (ESPN #12, ME #16)
While Denver has the worst pass defense in the league (at least by yardage), Tennessee is in the top-10 and has given up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  Granted, Russell Wilson can put up some decent numbers with his legs, but I just don't see him as a top-12 QB this week against the Titans.  I think Beast Mode has a big game on the ground and Wilson will probably put up double digit fantasy numbers, but nothing spectacular.
RBs
1.Adrian Peterson
2.Arian Foster
3.Jamaal Charles
4.Marshawn Lynch
5.LeSean McCoy
6.Ray Rice
7.DeMarco Murray
8.Doug Martin
9.Alfred Morris
10.Frank Gore
11.Knowshon Moreno
12.Reggie Bush
13.Trent Richardson
14.Giovani Bernard 
15.Eddie Lacy
16.Chris Johnson
17.Fred Jackson
18.DeAngelo Williams
19.Darren Sproles
20.CJ Spiller
21.Le'Veon Bell
22.Maurice Jones-Drew
23.Willis McGahee
24.Danny Woodhead
25.Bilal Powell
26.Pierre Thomas
27.Zac Stacy
28.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
29.Stevan Ridley
30.Rashard Mendenhall
31.Ronnie Hillman
32.Brandon Bolden
33.Andre Ellington
34.Marcel Reece
35.Ben Tate
36.Joique Bell
37.Rashad Jennings
38.Ronnie Brown
39.Daryl Richardson
40.Montee Ball


This guy's makeup is about to be ruined by his tears.
I'm high on: Ronnie Hillman 
(ESPN #42, ME #32)
I talked up Giovani Bernard last week, and once again, I have him ranked much higher than the experts (ESPN #22, ME #15).  I'm doubling down on him this week against the Bills, but I don't want to feature him here two weeks in a row.  Instead, let me go back to that Broncos/Jags game.  Did I mention the 28 point spread?  Yeah, I thought so.  I have Moreno near the top-10 this week, but I think Ronnie Hillman could get plenty of work if this thing is the blowout people are expecting.  Of course, the guy I'm playing this week in my money league had been starting Montee Ball, but he finally picked up Hillman this week to start against me (before I published this, obviously).  Hopefully I can get some sort of double reverse jinx going on here, but I don't think so.  I like Hillman for at least 50 yards and a 2nd half TD.

I'm down on: Joique Bell (ESPN #30, ME #37)
With Reggie Bush sidelined in Week 3, Joique had a nice game against my Redskins...and you don't have to tell me...I was there!  And yes, he also had a great game in Week 1 against Minnesota (so did Reggie by the way).  But in the last two weeks with a healthy Bush (hehe), Bell has been mostly a non-factor.  The Lions travel to Cleveland to play a tough Browns defense this week, and I just don't see Bell as a top-30 running back.  Maybe he vultures a TD from Reggie, but there are several other options I'd go with before starting Bell.


In the Thursday night game, Matt Forte got plenty of yards, but he couldn't find the endzone.  If you've ever owned Forte, you know this is pretty much par for the course.  On the other side of the ball, I think Brandon Jacobs thought it was 2008.  He put up over 100 yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns.  Of course we all saw that coming.  I actually picked up Da'Rel Scott (and had him ranked, not Jacobs).  I didn't play him, but I was hoping he might have a bigger role than he did.  He left the game late with a right leg injury, and it looks like I'll be dropping him for someone else in Week 7.

Speaking of injuries, I don't have much update on Ryan Mathews and his concussion.  He plays Monday night, so I think it's pretty risky at this point to rely on him.  I'm assuming he doesn't play, so I actually have Ronnie Brown toward the bottom of my rankings.  It sounds like Stevan Ridley will be back for the Patriots, so I have him up there in my top-30.  I still have Bolden in my rankings too, but I think Blount is probably the odd man out here (for now).  You never know in New England, but that's my best guess.  Af for the Oakland running backs, I think McFadden will be out again.  That means Jennings should at least get the start, but Marcel Reece appears to be the better play.  I have both ranked, but Reece slightly higher.

WRs
1.Dez Bryant
2.AJ Green
3.Calvin Johnson
4.Demaryius Thomas
5.Pierre Garcon
6.Wes Welker
7.Andre Johnson
8.Torrey Smith
9.Randall Cobb
10.Reggie Wayne
11.Jordy Nelson
12.Eric Decker
13.Danny Amendola 
14.Josh Gordon
15.Justin Blackmon
16.Antonio Brown
17.James Jones
18.Cecil Shorts
19.Steve Smith
20.T.Y. Hilton
21.Larry Fitzgerald
22.DeSean Jackson
23.Vincent Jackson
24.Anquan Boldin
25.Dwayne Bowe
26.Marques Colston
27.Denarius Moore
28.Vincent Brown
29.Kenbrell Thompkins
30.Greg Jennings
31.Keenan Allen
32.Terrance Williams
33.Julian Edelman
34.DeAndre Hopkins
35.Stevie Johnson
36.Mike Williams
37.Austin Pettis
38.Marlon Brown
39.Miles Austin
40.Jeremy Kerley

Well, Brandon Marshall finally got his looks last night, and it resulted in a pair of touchdowns for the man in the neon green kicks (the kids still call them "kicks" right?).  Alshon Jeffery got 5 targets himself, but he just wasn't connecting with Cutler (only caught one ball for 27 yards).  On the Giants' side, Cruz and Nicks both had relatively quiet nights.  It was Rueben Randle who caught Eli's lone TD pass in the losing effort.  With four receivers now off the list, I've added some of the usual suspects back to the bottom.  It sounds like Marlon Brown should be back in Baltimore's lineup, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him catch 3 or 4 balls (one of which will be for a TD).  He's a tough one to plug in because he's not getting a ton of looks, but he's been making the most of them.  It'll also be interesting to see what happens with Terrance Williams versus Miles Austin this week.  I'm sure Romo will put up gaudy numbers against my Redskins, but who will benefit the most (other than the obvious, Dez and Witten)...?

Pierre Garcon: always ready for Halloween...
I'm high on: Pierre Garcon (ESPN #11, ME #6)
I already talked about Chad Henne in the QB section, so obviously I'm high on Blackmon and Shorts as well (much higher than the ESPN experts on both).  I'm also high on Danny Amendola (ESPN #22, ME #15), but let's talk about someone else, shall we?  I mentioned that Denver is giving up the most passing yards per game, but #2 is Dallas.  My Redskins are fresh off an early bye week, and I think RGIII will be airing it out in Jerry's World.  Pierre has had at least six catches in each of his first 4 games, but he's only eclipsed the 100 yard mark once (against Green Bay).  I think this week he easily does that again and will definitely find the endzone too.

I'm down on: DeSean Jackson (ESPN #14, ME #25)
I'm also pretty low on Vincent Jackson (ESPN #17, ME #26), but I talked about him two weeks ago.  It turns out he still has Mike Glennon throwing to him, and I just don't trust the young QB yet.  Of course I'll be playing against him this week too, so I'd rather talk about the other Jackson.  It's no secret that DeSean has put up better numbers with Vick than Foles, and it sounds like the latter will be starting on Sunday.  He'll also have to deal with Revis island, although I'm sure the Eagles will try to move Jackson around a bit to try to get away from the shutdown corner.  I like Foles to have decent numbers in this game, but my gut is telling me DeSean won't hit the big play against the Bucs this week.

TEs
1.Jimmy Graham
2.Jason Witten
3.Julius Thomas
4.Vernon Davis
5.Jordan Cameron
6.Antonio Gates
7.Rob Gronkowski
8.Greg Olsen
9.Garrett Graham
10.Jermichael Finley
11.Coby Fleener
12.Brent Celek

While Martellus Bennett didn't get a touchdown for the fourth straight week, he continues to be a big, consistent part of that offense.  He caught 6 of his 7 targets and racked up 68 yards.  If you toss out the Week 3 game against the Steelers as an outlier, he's averaging nearly 12 yards/catch.  He's currently on pace to set career highs in basically every category, and I'll probably continue to roll with him over Finley in my money league in the weeks to come.  As for the rest of my tight end rankings, I've been ranking them nearly exactly the same as the average of the 4 ESPN experts.  So I don't have much to talk about other than adding Brent Celek to my list (now that Bennett is off).  I mentioned that I thought Nick Foles would have a decent game, but I don't like DeSean to break loose from Revis Island.  That doesn't leave a lot of other options for me, so I'm going with Celek.  I look for him to go back-to-back weeks with a touchdown for the first time since...who cares?  He's an Eagle.



DEF
1.Seahawks
2.Chiefs
3.49ers
4.Bengals
5.Texans
6.Broncos
7.Panthers
8.Bucs
9.Browns
10.Jets
11.Colts
12.Cardinals


Thanks, Eli!
I had the Bears as one of my top defenses again, and it didn't take them long to get a pick-6 in last night's game.  I'm not sure if they'll be a top-3 defense once Week 6 is in the books, but I'm sure they'll be top-10 again.  Like my TE rankings, I'm pretty close to the same as the experts on the defensive rankings too.  I was able to find one that I'm much higher on, but I had to reach for one that I'm down on.

I'm high on: Bucs (ESPN #18, ME #9)
Tampa Bay has been a top-10 defense this season, and they get a home game against a backup QB...oh, and they're coming off a bye week.  Yes, I think Foles will have a decent day, but that doesn't mean he can't get sacked 3 times and throw a couples of INTs!

I'm down on: Bills (ESPN #16, ME not ranked)
It was hard to come up with someone I'm "down on" this week because I only rank 12 defenses.  But when I look at the top-20 or so, the Bills strike me as a defense that I just don't see having a good week against the Bengals.  Yes, they've gotten double digit fantasy points in each of their 3 home games so far this season.  Yes, the Bengals are giving up the 8th most fantasy points to team defenses this year.  BUT...The Bills are starting a quarterback who they just signed off their practice squad.  Thaddeus Lewis has one NFL start, which came last year as a Brown and ended up being a 24-10 loss against the Steelers.  He threw one pick and was sacked 3 times in that game, but I think the Bengals will do even better than that against this Bills team.  I think Cincy will end up with good field position throughout this game and will capitalize to put up a ton of points on Buffalo's D.  I think there are better plug-and-play options than the Bills this week.

That's it for the Friday update.  Time to start the weekend!

Cheers,
Bart

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