Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Week 9 Rankings

cheerleader-halloween10We're about midway through the NFL season, but as far as fantasy football is concerned, we're actually well beyond halfway until playoffs start.  If you're sitting at 0-8 or 1-7, you're probably done.  Better luck next year.  If your record is 2-6 or 3-5, there's still some time for a playoff push.  This time last year, I was 3-5 myself, and I won 3 out of my last 5...only to fall a win short of the playoffs.  So if you can string together a few wins, you never know what might happen.  This year I'm 6-2 in my money league and 5-3 in my fun league, but there's still plenty of (fantasy) football to be played.  I'm not thinking playoffs just yet.  I'm thinking about Week 9.

And what's special about Week 9...?  Six more byes?  Yeah, there's that.  What else...

Ah yes, Halloween.  A time when women dress up like prostitutes and claim that they're a "sexy cat".  But there's more than that to Halloween.  There's also candy.  Aaaaaaaaaand...kids dressed up like funny stuff too.  That's about it I guess.  But Halloween is tomorrow, so I'll keep the theme rolling through these rankings.  Speaking of which, let's get to em!

BYES: Broncos, Lions, 49ers, Giants, Cardinals, Jaguars
QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Cam Newton
3.Drew Brees
4.Tony Romo
5.Philip Rivers
6.RGIII
7.Andy Dalton
8.Russell Wilson
9.Terrelle Pryor
10.Andrew Luck
11.Jake Locker
12.Matt Ryan
13.Alex Smith
14.Tom Brady
15.Nick Foles
16.Joe Flacco
17.Josh McCown
18.Ben Roethlisberger
19.Ryan Tannehill
20.Geno Smith

Yes, you still win, Brady.  You always......win.
Week 8 saw most of the usual suspects in the top-10, with Drew Brees leading the way.  Right behind him though was Andy Dalton, who had a huge 5 TD game against the Jets at home.  No QB is hotter right now, and I've moved the Red Rifle into my top-10 this week.  Colin Kaepernick ran all over the Jags in jolly old England, and Matt Stafford put up nearly 500 yards in the air in a victory over Dallas...not to mention that awesome fake spike rushing TD on the goal line!  Tom Brady and RGIII finished their days with single-digit fantasy numbers, as they continue to be extremely inconsistent.  I still have my boy in the top-10 this week, but I've lowered Tommy Boy quite a bit...right below Alex Smith this week (ouch).

But this is more like it
Once again I was high on someone who left a game early with an injury last week.  This time it was Michael Vick (ESPN #11, ME #8), who re-aggravated that hamstring injury in the first quarter.  I guess we'll never know if Vick could've put up top-10 fantasy numbers against the Giants.  I was down on Matt Ryan in Week 8 though (ESPN #8, ME #11), and he finished well outside of the top-10.  I mentioned that with Roddy White still out, Harry Douglas remained his only real option at WR.  Arizona defended him and Tony Gonzalez well, and Ryan and the rest of the Falcons struggled to get anything going on offense.  It looks like my preseason Super Bowl pick is in serious trouble, and I think Matty Ice may have a hard time putting up top-10 numbers this week at Carolina too.
RBs
1.Jamaal Charles
2.Adrian Peterson
3.Marshawn Lynch
4.Eddie Lacy
5.LeSean McCoy
6.Matt Forte
7.Arian Foster
8.DeMarco Murray
9.Darren McFadden
10.Alfred Morris
11.Le'Veon Bell
12.Ray Rice
13.Chris Johnson
14.Stevan Ridley
15.Fred Jackson
16.Ryan Mathews
17.Giovani Bernard 
18.Danny Woodhead
19.Trent Richardson 
20.Zac Stacy 
21.Steven Jackson
22.DeAngelo Williams
23.Lamar Miller
24.Darren Sproles
25.Mike James  
26.Pierre Thomas
27.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
28.Chris Ivory
29.Mike Tolbert
30.Bilal Powell
31.Brandon Bolden
32.Daryl Richardson
33.Willis McGahee
34.Roy Helu, Jr.
35.Donald Brown
36.James Starks
37.Jacquizz Rodgers
38.Daniel Thomas
39.Shonn Greene
40.Tashard Choice

If you were a DeMarco Murray owner, hopefully you kept an eye on his status as gametime approached on Sunday, as he was a late scratch in what could have been a good matchup against the Lions.  It sounded like he was close to suiting up though, so I have him in the rankings this week.  One guy who did come back from injury was Steven Jackson, though you wouldn't know it from the stat line.  I only saw the highlights of that game, but I'm guessing he's still bothered somewhat by the injury.

On the other side of the ball in that one, Rashard Mendenhall sat out with a toe injury...and what did I say on Friday about Andre Ellington?  How about that it "could be the week he grabs a stranglehold on the starting job for the Cardinals.  Well he may have done exactly that, and he actually finished as the #1 fantasy RB in Week 8.  He only rushed 15 times, but he broke one of them for an 80 yard touchdown.  He ended up with 154 rushing yards on the day, so even if you exclude that big run, he was still getting over 5 yards/carry on the other 14.  It'll be interesting to see if Bruce Arians finally sticks with Ellington as the feature back, but we won't know until after their Week 9 bye.  I would imagine all of Arizona's RBs will be healthy in Week 10 against Houston, so this saga is to be continued...

Sorry to have ever doubted you, Captain America.
Last week I was down on Alfred Morris (ESPN #9, ME #13), as I was worried about two things: Helu and Denver's run defense.  It turns out neither of those things had an effect on Morris, as he rushed for nearly 100 yards and a touchdown.  As a Redskins fan, I wish they kept giving it to him in the second half.  But for whatever reason, they seemed to throw the ball way more in the third quarter (even though they actually had the lead!).  They need to keep feeding Alfred, especially when he has it going like he did on Sunday.  

The guy I was especially high on last week was Kendall Hunter (ESPN #43, ME #32), and he performed about as I expected.  Frank Gore did most of his damage in the 1st half, and he ended up as a top-5 RB for the week.  But once the 49ers had a 32-point lead, Hunter got some touches.  He ended up with 84 yards on just 9 carries, and while he didn't find the endzone, he was a top-30 fantasy RB.

As usual, there are several RBs this week to keep an eye on with injuries.  I already mentioned DeMarco Murray, but I also have Arian Foster ranked highly, even though it's not clear if he'll play on Sunday night against the Colts.  Zac Stacy (my BOY!) is dealing with a sprained ankle, but I'm ranking him as though he'll suit up against the Titans.  I'm also ranking Daryl Richardson though, as I think Stacy could be limited by the injury.  I'm leaving CJ Spiller off my list for now, but hopefully we'll know more about him and others by the time Friday rolls around.

WRs
1.Dez Bryant
2.Jordy Nelson
3.AJ Green
4.Josh Gordon
5.Brandon Marshall
6.Antonio Brown
7.DeSean Jackson
8.Keenan Allen
9.Pierre Garcon
10.Andre Johnson
11.Harry Douglas
12.Denarius Moore
13.Terrance Williams
14.TY Hilton
15.Steve Smith
16.Jarrett Boykin
17.Vincent Jackson
18.Torrey Smith
19.Kendall Wright
20.Alshon Jeffery
21.Golden Tate
22.Mike Wallace
23.Marvin Jones
24.Stevie Johnson
25.Marques Colston
26.Danny Amendola
27.Nate Washington
28.Dwayne Bowe
29.Brian Hartline
30.Brandon LaFell
31.Darrius Heyward-Bey
32.Lance Moore
33.Emmanuel Sanders
34.Jeremy Kerley
35.Marlon Brown
36.Kenny Stills
37.Vincent Brown
38.Dexter McCluster
39.DeAndre Hopkins
40.Greg Jennings

You can be #1 this week, Dez.  Calvin is on a bye...
Last week I boldly put Megatron back at the #1 spot where he belonged.  OK, maybe it wasn't such a bold move.  But hey, some people had Dez Bryant ahead of him.  I think Dez himself was included in that group, since he publicly said that basically he could do anything Calvin could do.  Ha!  Try 329 yards and a touchdown (nearly two)!  Dez had a nice day as well, but it was about half as many fantasy points as Megatron.  One guy who did have as many fantasy points as Calvin Johnson was Marvin Jones, who found himself just barely inside my top-40 in Friday's update.  If you took a flier on him, congratulations.  You got yourself 4 TDs from a wide receiver.  Impressive.

Pretty sure this guy prefers Megatron to Dez.
One call that I did make was Kenny Stills (ESPN #52, ME #37).  While I definitely prefaced my argument for Stills by saying that he is a boom-or-bust type of fantasy player, I also said that he'd go boom in Week 8.  I pointed out that Buffalo had given up the most passing TDs (15) and given up the most passing plays of 40+ yards (10).  Everything was coming together for Brees to connect with Stills.  And while it only happened 3 times, two of those were for big touchdowns and Kenny Stills had the best day of his young career.  If you were scrambling for someone last week, I hope you were able to pull the trigger on him.  This week, I would imagine Bowe or McCluster will hit the big play against that Buffalo defense, but it could be a guy like Donnie Avery.  We'll see if any of the experts have him in their top-40 or not, but he might sneak in there for me on Friday.

I have to admit though that I was down on Josh Gordon (ESPN #14, ME #24).  The only other time that happened was Week 3, when he blew up in his first game back from suspension.  Well, I guess I gave Jason Campbell too hard of a time in last week's Friday update because the guy was a top-10 fantasy QB in Week 8!  And who did he throw to?  Gordon and Cameron.  I guess it doesn't matter who's behind center for Cleveland.  They're going to try to hit Josh Gordon on a big play.  That happened again on Sunday, as Gordon finished as a top-10 WR.  He's in the top-5 for me this week.

You won't find the following guys on my list just yet: Roddy White, James Jones, and especially not Percy Harvin.  My guess is that Percy and Roddy won't play yet, but Jones might.  If any of them practice this week, they might find their way into the Friday update.
TEs
1.Jimmy Graham
2.Rob Gronkowski
3.Jordan Cameron
4.Antonio Gates
5.Jordan Reed
6.Tony Gonzalez
7.Greg Olsen
8.Jason Witten
9.Martellus Bennett
10.Charles Clay
11.Coby Fleener
12.Heath Miller
Jimmy Graham owners were probably pretty nervous last week.  It looked like his foot injury might keep him out against Buffalo (maybe even longer).  But in my Friday update, I said that I thought he would tough it out on Sunday...and tough it out he did.  He played through the pain on just 18 snaps, but he made the most of them as he hauled in 2 touchdowns.  In a down week for fantasy tight ends, Graham and Vernon Davis were a couple of bright spots.  The Jordans (Reed and Cameron) also put up decent numbers, but the rest of the guys on everyone's lists were nearly nowhere to be found.  I scrambled to pick up a fill-in and decided to go with Rob Housler.  He caught one pass late in the 4th quarter for 14 yards.  I almost went with Jeff Cumberland, who wouldn't have done any better (1 catch for 9 yards).

This week I'm rolling with Coby Fleener in my money league.  I'm hoping he gets more involved in the offense now that Reggie Wayne is lost for the year.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.  As for a Halloween reference, I couldn't find a baby dressed up as Gronk (although if they're naked except for a diaper they're halfway there).  So enjoy this kid dressed up like Jared Allen.


DEF
1.Seahawks
2.Chiefs
3.Saints
4.Bengals
5.Patriots
6.Panthers
7.Ravens
8.Titans
9.Raiders
10.Cowboys
11.Packers  
12.Colts

Chiefs are 8-0?!?  Oh yeaaah!!!!!
For the second week in a row, the Chiefs were a pretty average fantasy defense.  They stay in my top-10 this week as they travel to Buffalo, but I'm lowering them...all the way down to the #2 spot.  Speaking of playing against the Bills, that's who the Saints played last week, and I was pretty high on them (ESPN #8, ME #4).  They didn't finish in the top-5, but they were close.  Even though they're going up against Geno Smith on an odd numbered week, I still like them to put up some decent fantasy points against the Jets.  The defense I was down on last week was the Browns (ESPN #10, ME not ranked).  They had six sacks but didn't do much else in a losing effort at Arrowhead, and they finished in the bottom half as the #16 fantasy defense in Week 8.

I had a tough decision last week with Carolina vs Cincinnati defense, but I stuck with the Bengals, who yet again put up a ton of defensive fantasy points at home.  They only allowed 9 points in a blowout win against the Jets, and they racked up 4 sacks and two pick-6s!  They finished as the top defense for the week, and I'm going to roll with them again tomorrow night as they travel to South Beach on a short week.  Of course my opponent this week scooped up the Panthers on the waiver wire this morning, so it's going to sting if waiving them comes back to haunt me.

And in case you hadn't seen this yet...?  You're welcome.

View image on Twitter

Check back on Friday for injury updates and some shuffling about in my rankings.

Cheers,
Bart


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