Week 7 Rankings: Friday Update

Sorry, but there's no storytime in this Friday update, folks.  I want to get right down to business.

First, let's talk about last night's game, which pretty much followed the script...

QBs: Carson Palmer looked like a JV quarterback, and Russell Wilson put up a top-10 fantasy performance.  I will say that if Lynch had been awarded that first TD, Wilson would've had one less TD and had another good (not great) fantasy day.  But that's not how it went down, so good for him and his owners.

Bruce, take off the fake glasses, dude...

RBs: Speaking of Lynch, he also put up top-10 numbers last night.  And like I said, he sort of got robbed of another score which would've put him over 20 fantasy points for the evening.  On the other side of the ball, Arizona's backs didn't do much.  Yes, Mendenhall got a touchdown after the Cardinals got great field position from a Russell Wilson fumble.  But you're not counting on him on a weekly basis at this point (at least I hope not!).  I do like what I saw from Andre Ellington though.  I know what you're thinking: "But he had a horrible fantasy night.  What could you have seen that you LIKED?!?"  I'll tell you.  See, I was playing against him in my money league, so I was paying attention.  The production wasn't there last night, but that's due to Seattle's defense.  Carson Palmer was targeting Ellington in the passing game...in the red zone.  Palmer threw a couple passes his way that were damn close to being touchdowns.  Mark my words, when they play Atlanta next week, he'll haul in one of those.  Luckily for me this week, he had a hard time converting much of anything on his 5 targets.  He also only had 3 rushes, but Arizona had to abandon the run in the second half.  He had 7 carries in each of the previous weeks, and if Bruce Arians is smart, that number should get up into the double digits moving forward.

WRs: Let's start with the Cardinals: I had Fitzgerald ranked at #23 and Michael Floyd at #35.  Floyd had his standard 7-8 point game, but Fitz was shutout for the most part.  I think his hamstring issue might've been slowing him down a little (that, and the Seahawk secondary).  Hopefully you sat him for this tough matchup, but if you didn't have better options, that's a hard pill to swallow.  Plus, it's always tough to sit your studs.  As far as Seattle's wideouts, they're still a crapshoot from week to week.  And with Percy Harvin set to return any day now, they'll become even more unpredictable from a fantasy perspective.  My opponent played Golden Tate against me, and I was cheering when his punt return for a would-be-TD got called back for a block in the back penalty.  Kind of makes his dive into the endzone a little silly, doesn't it...?

TEs: You didn't actually start a tight end from one of these teams this week, did you?  Well if you did, congratulations if it was Zach Miller (OK, maybe in a deep league) or Kellen Davis (no way in hell).  Those guys each caught one of Wilson's 3 TD passes.

DEF: I can't get into my rankings update without at least talking about these defenses.  Arizona's D wasn't spectacular, but they did get to the QB and force a pair of fumbles.  They've put up some decent fantasy points against good offenses this season, and their schedule only gets easier (at least until Week 16 & 17).  As for Seattle, they sacked Carson Palmer 7 times and they picked him off twice.  One of those INTs was by Brandon Browner, who would've taken it all the way to the house if it wasn't for that "Turf Monster", as Mike Mayock so eloquently put it.  Needless to say, you're starting the Seahawks every week no matter who they play.  But hopefully you didn't need me to tell you that.  



















K: You thought I was actually going to talk about kickers?  You must be new to the blog...

OK.  Let's get into the Week 7 updated rankings!

(BYES: Saints & Raiders)

QBs 1.Peyton Manning 2.Tony Romo 3.Jay Cutler 4.Andrew Luck 5.Cam Newton 6.Philip Rivers 7.Aaron Rodgers 8.Matthew Stafford 9.Matt Ryan 10.Nick Foles 11.Tom Brady 12.Eli Manning 13.RGIII 14.Ryan Tannehill 15.Colin Kaepernick 16.Brandon Weeden 17.Andy Dalton 18.Ben Roethlisberger 19.Joe Flacco 20.Geno Smith I thought of adding Mike Glennon to the bottom of the list this week, but a rookie QB in his first road game?  I thought I'd shy away from that.  Josh Freeman is also enticing to plug in at the #20 spot, but he still needs to learn that offense (not to mention the guys in it).  He has a good matchup with the Giants, but that's another risky pick I'm staying away from.  Instead, I'm going with the rock-solid selection of Geno Smith (ha!).  At first glance, his fantasy numbers look completely inconsistent.  But take another look (from ESPN standard scoring): 14, 3, 24, 7, 21, 4... Just don't do this on Sunday. OK, Geno...? Notice anything interesting?  No, it's not a Fibonacci Sequence.  Try again.  He's consistently having a good game, followed by a bad game, followed by a good game, and so on.  And while that Week 2 bad game came against the same Patriots squad he's playing this week, I think things will be different this time around.  First of all, it's a home game.  Wait, I'm not sure that helps.  Jets fans really like to boo.  Well, hopefully he gets off to a good start early so the boo birds stay away.  Secondly, he now has some experience under his belt and he's been working with his receivers for several weeks now.  And finally, New England's defense is not the same as it was in Week 2.  They've since lost Vince Wilfork to a season-ending injury, and now linebacker (and leading tackler) Jerod Mayo is done for the year.  On top of that, their best cornerback Aqib Talib is not expected to play this week due to a hip injury. Needless to say, I'm going to be lowering the Patriots defense in my rankings below (even though the Jets turn the ball over a ton).  But all of that other stuff I mentioned is just to say that, yeah, I kind of like Geno Smith this week against New England.  In fact, I think the Jets beat em this time around.  But let's talk about a couple of other QBs in a game I'm more interested in. I'm high on: Jay Cutler (ESPN #9, ME #3) As usual, my Redskins have been giving up a ton of fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.  Last week, they actually held Romo in check, but that was due to special teams more than anything.  Dwayne Harris racked up 222 return yards against Washington, giving Romo short fields to work with.  Hopefully we can do better on kickoffs and punts this week, but I think that'll just mean Cutler will put together some long drives.  I wasn't ranking Jay earlier in the year, but he's on my radar now.  He's had right around 20 fantasy points or more in every game except an average Week 3 game at Pittsburgh, and I think he'll have no problem putting up over 300 yards and 2 or 3 TDs at FedEx Field this Sunday.  At my fantasy draft back in August, my friend and I made a little wager on Cutler.  He said he would be a top-5 fantasy QB this season.  I'm starting to get a little worried... I'm down on: RGIII (ESPN #8, #13) Now I don't want to be too pessimistic about my team, but what can I say?  We are 1-4... Sticking with the Bears/Redskins matchup, I'm actually down on Robert Griffin III in this one.  If you take away all of the garbage time points in the first two games against Philly and Green Bay, RGIII's last three games have been pretty average from a fantasy perspective.  He did look better running the ball against Dallas, but he's still not hitting his receivers on passes he needs to be making.  I think Washington will feed the ball to Thoroughbred Fred, and RGIII will end up with another fantasy day with around 12-15 points.  Of course, I hope I'm wrong on this one... RBs 1.Adrian Peterson 2.Jamaal Charles 3.LeSean McCoy 4.Matt Forte 5.Arian Foster 6.Knowshon Moreno 7.Frank Gore 8.Alfred Morris 9.Doug Martin 10.Reggie Bush 11.Ray Rice 12.Eddie Lacy 13.Giovani Bernard  14.Fred Jackson 15.DeAngelo Williams 16.Brandon Jacobs 17.Danny Woodhead 18.Lamar Miller 19.Ryan Mathews 20.Trent Richardson 21.Chris Johnson 22.Maurice Jones-Drew 23.CJ Spiller 24.Stevan Ridley 25.Bilal Powell 26.Le'Veon Bell 27.Jacquizz Rodgers 28.Zac Stacy 29.Joseph Randle 30.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 31. Willis McGahee 32.Jason Snelling 33.Chris Ivory 34.Ben Tate 35.Mike Tolbert 36.Brandon Bolden 37.Chris Ogbonnaya 38.Kendall Hunter 39.Philip Tanner 40.Roy Helu, Jr. It sounds like Steven Jackson still isn't 100% healthy for the Falcons and most likely won't suit up this Sunday against Tampa Bay.  Likewise, DeMarco Murray is out for the Cowboys, and Lance Dunbar still isn't healthy for Dallas either.  This has me adding Philip Tanner to my rankings, as I'm not completely sold on Joseph Randle (more on that later).  I've also added Kendall Hunter, who has had 3 TDs in his last 4 games for the 49ers.  Rounding out the top-40 is Roy Helu, who got 10 touches in Week 6 against Dallas, despite a healthy Alfred Morris.  Waiver wire gold...cha-ching! I'm high on: Brandon Jacobs (ESPN #28, ME #17) I'm also really high on Danny Woodhead this week (ESPN #30, ME #18) as he faces Jacksonville, arguably the worst defense in the league.  I actually have him ranked ahead of Ryan Mathews, who I'll be starting at my flex position in my money league...but I'd rather talk about Jacobs here.  First of all, let me just say how strange it is to even be talking about Brandon Jacobs right now, much less discussing why I like him so much more than the experts.  I didn't see this coming, and neither did you.  But it's happening, so roll with it.  David Wilson's return may or may not happen this season.  They're now saying he won't need surgery and might be back soon, but I'm not buying it.  Meanwhile, the Giants cut injured Da'Rel Scott and signed former Madden coverboy Peyton Hillis as insurance.  But make no mistake.  After that performance against the Bears last week, Brandon Jacobs is the starting running back.  He'll face a Minnesota defense that isn't much better than the Jags, and he should get 20+ touches and any goal line work.  I'm not sure he'll have another 100 yard day, but I think he'll be close, and I think he'll hit paydirt again too. I'm down on: a bunch of guys ESPN is still ranking Joique Bell at #35, and I'm not sure why.  He's even dealing with a rib injury this week!  I've talked about him before though, and I'm tired of it.  I have three other guys I'm down on this week, so I'll talk about them.  First up is Stevan Ridley (ESPN #17, ME #25), who had a nice game last week against New Orleans.  Well I'm not totally buying him again just yet.  The Saints are a bottom-half run defense, but the Jets are #2 behind the Broncos (giving up just over 75 yards/game).  Ridley got 4 fantasy points against Gang Green in Week 2 when the job was his to lose.  Maybe he'll have payback on his mind, but I don't think he gets it.  And with Gronk potentially back this week (maybe for real this time?), Ridley may even lose goal line work due to passes to the big guy. This was one of Randle's best runs last week? A big name I'm down on this week for a similar reason is Trent Richardson (ESPN #14, ME #21).  He's playing against that top-rated Denver run defense, who is getting Von Miller back this week.  TRich also still looks like he's learning the offense, and I think Luck has a good day in the air against the Broncos, but Richardson will finish without double-digit fantasy points for the 3rd week in a row.  Finally, I want to mention Joseph Randle (ESPN #22, ME #30).  He's a nice flex play this week if you're in desperation mode, but I can't see ranking him all the way up at #22.  Yes, he has the opportunity this week against Philly, but he had that in the 2nd half against Washington last week.  He rushed for 17 yards on 11 carries (which includes one run for 14 yards!).  He did find the endzone, which made it look like he had a decent day...but he didn't.  I think Philip Tanner will get some burn in this game too, and I think the Cowboys stick to passing more against that horrible Eagles secondary. WRs 1.Dez Bryant 2.AJ Green 3.Brandon Marshall 4.Victor Cruz 5.Demaryius Thomas 6.DeSean Jackson 7.Justin Blackmon 8.Wes Welker 9.Josh Gordon 10.Calvin Johnson 11.Vincent Jackson 12.Reggie Wayne 13.Jordy Nelson 14.Pierre Garcon 15.Antonio Brown 16.Keenan Allen 17.Eric Decker 18.Torrey Smith 19.Alshon Jeffery 20.T.Y. Hilton 21.Andre Johnson 22.Hakeem Nicks 23.Mike Wallace 24.Steve Smith 25.Anquan Boldin 26.Kenbrell Thompkins 27.Rueben Randle 28.Harry Douglas 29.Julian Edelman 30.Brian Hartline 31.Terrance Williams 32.Jarrett Boykin 33.Brandon LaFell 34.Emmanuel Sanders 35.Greg Jennings 36.Kendall Wright 37.Mike Williams 38.Stevie Johnson 39.Vincent Brown 40.Aaron Dobson The reports are looking like Stevie Johnson and Mike Williams will both play on Sunday, so while I've added them to my Week 7 rankings, they're still near the bottom.  Cecil Shorts is still in a ton of pain apparently, and I don't see him playing this week.  With a Week 9 bye for the Jags, I wouldn't be surprised to see him rest until Week 10.  Roddy White is still limping around with a hamstring injury, and even if he plays to keep his consecutive game streak alive, I don't see him as a factor and he stays off the list.  It's also looking more and more like James Jones will sit a week out, as he hasn't practiced at all this week.  If he plays, I think he's a top-40 WR, but I wouldn't go crazy on him.  Even slowed by an injury, I think he'd be in line for a lot of looks with Jordy being covered mostly by Joe Haden.  But I'm assuming Jones will be out, which has me moving Jarrett Boykin slightly up my rankings.   I'm high on: a bunch of guys Unlike Manti Te'o's girlfriend, Keenan Allen is for real. Interestingly enough, I was down on a bunch of running backs versus the ESPN experts.  Here I am loving some of these young WRs.  I was surprised to see the ESPN guys so low on Justin Blackmon this week (ESPN #15, ME #7).  Since coming back from suspension, he's gotten over 19 fantasy points/game.  It looks like Cecil Shorts may miss a game or two, so Henne will be throwing to Blackmon every chance he gets.  Another guy I thought might rise a little more is Keenan Allen (ESPN #25, ME #16).  The 3rd round pick out of Cal has quickly become the go-to guy for Philip Rivers.  It reminds me of 2009 when Miles Austin started blowing up for the Cowboys, except he was technically a veteran at that point.  After watching the Colts/Chargers game on Monday night, I think Keenan Allen is here to stay.  I could be wrong here, but I see him going for over 100 yards and a TD for a 3rd week in a row.  Again, the Chargers are playing Jacksonville this week... Two other young guys I have ranked higher than the experts are Reuben Randle (ESPN #37, ME #28) and Brandon LaFell (ESPN #49, ME #34).  Despite their 0-6 record, I seem to be pretty high on the Giants this week.  I think they'll get their first win against the Vikings, and I think they'll put up plenty of points in doing so.  With his limited targets, Randle is a risky WR3 play.  But he has 3 TDs in his last 2 games, so he's in my top-30.  To a lesser extent, I like LaFell for similar reasons.  He's had 3 TDs in his last 3 games, and I think Cam Newton will keep it rolling this week at home against the Rams.  Again, not the safest bet at a flex position, but you could do worse. This is what I think about ranking Jennings so highly. I'm down on: Greg Jennings (ESPN #28, ME #36) There are several guys who I have ranked 4 or 5 spots lower than the ESPN experts, but I felt like Jennings was worth mentioning here.  The Vikings have announced that Josh Freeman will be their starter against the Giants on Sunday.  Some people see this as an upgrade for Minnesota's WRs, but I'm not so sure (at least not yet).  Freeman has to learn the offense, and what better way to get comfortable than to hand the ball off to AP and let him run all over that Giants defense?  Meanwhile, Jennings has had ONE good game this season!  His other 4 games have resulted in single-digit fantasy points.  What exactly qualifies him to be in the top-30...? TEs 1.Vernon Davis 2.Tony Gonzalez 3.Julius Thomas 4.Jordan Cameron 5.Jason Witten 6.Jermichael Finley 7.Antonio Gates 8.Martellus Bennett 9.Charles Clay 10.Greg Olsen 11.Heath Miller 12.Kyle Rudolph With no tight ends in my top-12 from last night's game, there's not much shuffling around here.  But one change that I have made is replacing Garrett Graham at #12 with Kyle Rudolph.  It looks like Schaub will be sidelined for Houston, and TJ Yates is splitting reps with Case Keenum in practice this week.  Add that to the fact that the Chiefs are giving up the fewest points per game to opposing TEs this season, and I needed to reconsider that last spot.  Rudolph is hot or cold, and a lot of his points last week were in garbage time.  But he is going up against the Giants, who have allowed the most fantasy points to TEs when playing at home apparently.  It's a weird stat, but whatever.  He's startable on Monday Night Football in a 12-team league. I'll believe Gronk's playing when this guy says so... Wondering why I still haven't ranked Gronk, even though his agent apparently said today that he's cleared by doctors?  Well guess who hasn't cleared him to play on Sunday?  His coach!  I don't trust Drew Rosenhaus as far as I can throw him, so Gronk stays off the list for at least one more week.  Again, if he plays against the Jets on Sunday, I do like him as a top-10 play.  I probably put him somewhere in between Gates and Clay.  Speaking of those two... I'm high on: Charles Clay (ESPN #12, ME #9) For whatever reason, the Bills haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to tight ends this year.  But they've given up 12 passing touchdowns in 6 games, and the Dolphins have been using Clay in all sorts of positions to get him the ball.  I say this makes him an exception to the rule this week.  I think he continues to ball out and finds the endzone for a 3rd straight game, giving him double-digit fantasy points for the 4th time this season. I'm down on: Antonio Gates (ESPN #2, ME #7) Yes, the Jags have allowed a TD to opposing tight ends in 4 straight games.  But Gates has quieted down in his last two contests with the emergence of Keenan Allen.  Also I think they might punch it in with the RBs when they're near the goal line, as I'm high on both Woodhead and Mathews this week.  Call it a hunch, but I just think Gates won't be a top-5 TE this week.  Of course, I've been wrong about Gates before (after all, I drafted the guy last season). DEF 1.Chiefs 2.Bears 3.49ers 4.Panthers 5.Ravens 6.Chargers 7.Packers 8.Dolphins 9.Titans 10.Patriots 11.Lions 12.Bengals I'm high on: Lions (ESPN #22, ME #11) I was pretty high on the Dolphins too (ESPN #16, ME #5), but I've moved Miami down a bit.  A lot of that was based on the assumption that Matt Flynn would start for Buffalo.  Add to that the fact that Miami is at home and coming off a bye week, and you have yourself a nice little recipe for success.  But it looks like Thad Lewis is healthy enough to get another start, and he didn't look that bad last week against a tough Bengals defense.  So let's talk about the team who the Bengals travel to play this week: the Detroit Lions.  Based on my money league's scoring, Detroit's defense is right in the middle, tied for 17th in average fantasy points/game.  But did you know that in their first 6 games, only 2 of them have been at Ford Field?  In those 2 home games, their defense put up top-10 fantasy numbers in those weeks against Minnesota and Chicago.  Now they get a Bengals team that is giving up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and who also is only averaging 18 actual points in their 3 road games this season.  On top of all of that, in talking about the Detroit Lions, I get to post this GIF of Brandon Weeden again!  Enjoy. Yep.  Still hilarious. I'm down on: Vikings (ESPN #11, ME not ranked) I get it.  They're playing the Giants, who are 0-6 and giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year.  But I think the G-Men will actually put up a bunch of points in this one.  If your scoring system dishes out a lot of negative points for your defense giving up 30+ points, just consider that.  If it rewards you more for sacks, fumble recoveries, etc.?  The Giants will probably have you covered there.  I just think Minnesota might put up 7-10 fantasy points, but I don't see them as a top-12 defense this week. That's it for the Friday update.  Everyone have a great weekend, and good luck in Week 7! Cheers, Bart